Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “randomized sampling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,423 records · Page 79

Microwave Resonator Measurements of Atmospheric Absorption Coefficients: A Preliminary Design Study

A preliminary design study examined the feasibility of using microwave resonator measurements to improve the accuracy of atmospheric absorption coefficients and refractivity between 18 and 35 GHz. Increased accuracies would improve the capability of water vapor radiometers to correct for radio signal delays caused by Earth's atmosphere. Calibration of delays incurred by radio signals traversing the atmosphere has applications to both deep space tracking and planetary radio science experiments. Currently, the Cassini gravity wave search requires 0.8-1.0% absorption coefficient accuracy. This study examined current atmospheric absorption models and estimated that current model accuracy ranges from 5% to 7%. The refractivity of water vapor is known to 1% accuracy, while the refractivity of many dry gases (oxygen, nitrogen, etc.) are known to better than 0.1%. Improvements to the current generation of models will require that both the functional form and absolute absorption of the water vapor spectrum be calibrated and validated. Several laboratory techniques for measuring atmospheric absorption and refractivity were investigated, including absorption cells, single and multimode rectangular cavity resonators, and Fabry-Perot resonators. Semi-confocal Fabry-Perot resonators were shown to provide the most cost-effective and accurate method of measuring atmospheric gas refractivity. The need for accurate environmental measurement and control was also addressed. A preliminary design for the environmental control and measurement system was developed to aid in identifying significant design issues. The analysis indicated that overall measurement accuracy will be limited by measurement errors and imprecise control of the gas sample's thermodynamic state, thermal expansion and vibration- induced deformation of the resonator structure, and electronic measurement error. The central problem is to identify systematic errors because random errors can be reduced by averaging. Calibrating the resonator measurements by checking the refractivity of dry gases which are known to better than 0.1% provides a method of controlling the systematic errors to 0.1%. The primary source of error in absorptivity and refractivity measurements is thus the ability to measure the concentration of water vapor in the resonator path. Over the whole thermodynamic range of interest the accuracy of water vapor measurement is 1.5%. However, over the range responsible for most of the radio delay (i.e. conditions in the bottom two kilometers of the atmosphere) the accuracy of water vapor measurements ranges from 0.5% to 1.0%. Therefore the precision of the resonator measurements could be held to 0.3% and the overall absolute accuracy of resonator-based absorption and refractivity measurements will range from 0.6% to 1.

Walter, Steven J.↗

Derivation of Aerosol Profiles for MC3E Convection Studies and Use in Simulations of the 20 May Squall Line Case

Advancing understanding of deep convection microphysics via mesoscale modeling studies of well-observed case studies requires observation-based aerosol inputs. Here, we derive hygroscopic aerosol size distribution input profiles from ground-based and airborne measurements for six convection case studies observed during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Cloud Experiment (MC3E) over Oklahoma. We demonstrate use of an input profile in simulations of the only well-observed case study that produced extensive stratiform outflow on 20 May 2011. At well-sampled elevations between −11 and −23 C over widespread stratiform rain, ice crystal number concentrations are consistently dominated by a single mode near approx. 400 microm in randomly oriented maximum dimension (Dmax). The ice mass at −23 C is primarily in a closely collocated mode, whereas a mass mode near Dmax approx. 1000 microns becomes dominant with decreasing elevation to the −11 C level, consistent with possible aggregation during sedimentation. However, simulations with and without observation-based aerosol inputs systematically overpredict mass peak Dmax by a factor of 3-5 and underpredict ice number concentration by a factor of 4-10. Previously reported simulations with both two-moment and size-resolved microphysics have shown biases of a similar nature. The observed ice properties are notably similar to those reported from recent tropical measurements. Based on several lines of evidence, we speculate that updraft microphysical pathways determining outflow properties in the 20 May case are similar to a tropical regime, likely associated with warm-temperature ice multiplication that is not well understood or well represented in models.

Fridlind, Ann M.↗

Derivation of Aerosol Profiles for MC3E Convection Studies and Use in Simulations of the 20 May Squall Line Case

Advancing understanding of deep convection microphysics via mesoscale modeling studies of well-observed case studies requires observation-based aerosol inputs. Here, we derive hygroscopic aerosol size distribution input profiles from ground-based and airborne measurements for six convection case studies observed during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Cloud Experiment (MC3E) over Oklahoma. We demonstrate use of an input profile in simulations of the only well-observed case study that produced extensive stratiform outflow on 20 May 2011. At well-sampled elevations between -11 and -23 degree C over widespread stratiform rain, ice crystal number concentrations are consistently dominated by a single mode near 400 micrometer in randomly oriented maximum dimension (D[superscript max] ). The ice mass at -23 degree C is primarily in a closely collocated mode, whereas a mass mode near D[superscript max] -1000 micrometer becomes dominant with decreasing elevation to the -11 degree C level, consistent with possible aggregation during sedimentation. However, simulations with and without observation-based aerosol inputs systematically overpredict mass peak D[superscript max] by a factor of 3-5 and underpredict ice number concentration by a factor of 4-10. Previously reported simulations with both two-moment and size-resolved microphysics have shown biases of a similar nature. The observed ice properties are notably similar to those reported from recent tropical measurements. Based on several lines of evidence, we speculate that updraft microphysical pathways determining outflow properties in the 20 May case are similar to a tropical regime, likely associated with warm-temperature ice multiplication that is not well understood or well represented in models.

Fridlind, Ann M.↗

NASA’s Ground-Based Microgravity Simulation Facility

Since opportunities to conduct experiments in space are scarce, various microgravity simulators and analogs have been widely used in space biology ground studies. Even though microgravity simulators do not produce all of the biological effects observed in the true microgravity environment, they provide alternative test platforms that are effective, affordable, and readily available to facilitate microgravity research. The Microgravity Simulation Support Facility (MSSF) at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) has been established for conducting short duration experiments, typically less than 1 month, utilizing a variety of microgravity simulation devices for research at different gravity levels. The simulators include, but are not limited to, 2D Clinostats, 3D Clinostats, Random Positioning Machines, and Rotating Wall Vessels. In this presentation, we will provide an overview of current MSSF capabilities, research conducted in MSSF, new technology developments, customized sample holder designs, and the physical characteristics of these microgravity simulators.

Ye Zhang↗

Northern Rockies Ecological Conservation: Leveraging Earth Observations to Monitor and Predict Populations of Federally Threatened Whitebark Pine (Pinus albicaulis) across the Intermountain West

Whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis) is an ecologically important species in North America. As a federally listed threatened species, an understanding of WBP habitat, distribution, and health is important for the natural resource managers of the National Park Service, United States Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, Fish and Wildlife Service, and non-profit organizations such as the Whitebark Pine Ecosystem Foundation. Previous attempts to develop models of WBP habitat suitability and distribution lack confidence in their validity and integrity for these organizations. The updated models of habitat suitability and distribution developed by this study would provide managers with a capability to be employed in the conservation and future research direction for WBP. Thus, we developed a habitat suitability model of WBP at a high spatial resolution (Landsat 9 Operational Land Image-2, National Land Cover Database, NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission; 30m pixels) using a generalized logistic regression with an area under the curve value of 0.754. We extracted spectral reflectance signatures from overlapped ground sample points and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument. The spectral signature analysis indicates WBP is separable from other tree species. We also utilized a visual validation approach and random forest (RF) modeling to separate WBP from limber pine. Through visual validation the RF classifier successfully identified 8out of 10 WBP trees gathered through ground truth points. Additionally, we achieved an overall accuracy of 91%in our confusion matrix for the distribution model using a dependent validation approach. The derived products from this study allow project partners to assess current suitable habitat and apparent health status in areas of identified WBP occurrence, providing data to aid future research regarding WBP health.

Sentinel-2↗

Computer-Based Procedures Among Older Adults: Findings from the Rancor Microworld Simulator

As with many industries worldwide, nuclear energy is experiencing an aging workforce; older than other energy sources and the national average. For example, while almost one in three nuclear industry professionals are 55+ years, for oil and gas that number is one in five. The challenges brought about by an aging workforce are one of the industry’s top concerns. However, the industry lacks for empirical research that examines the effects of developmental aging in older workers, as well as the interactions between aging and new digital technologies. We present the results of an experiment that tested three different computer-based procedures in a sample of 30 older adults (55+ years). While the industry has traditionally relied on paper-based procedures, these are being modernized by digital technology. Participants were randomly assigned to one of three procedure-types that varied by the level of digitalization, based on the IEEE Standard-1786. Type 1 essentially represents a digital representation of a paper-based procedure, Type 2 adds embedded indicators, and Type 3 adds soft controls. Participants performed two different operational scenarios (startup and loss of feedwater) on a simplified nuclear power plant simulator. Results revealed a weak signal that Type 2 may produce lower workload and lower completion times in some instances. However, there were no significant effects of procedure-type across any other outcomes, including simulator log data, situation awareness, and preference ratings. We discuss our findings in terms of optimal levels of digitalization/automation for an aging nuclear workforce and suggest pathways for future directions.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

Quantum Search Approaches to Sampling-Based Motion Planning

In this paper, we present a novel formulation of traditional sampling-based motion planners as database-oracle structures that can be solved via quantum search algorithms. We consider two complementary scenarios: for simpler sparse environments, we formulate the Quantum Full Path Search Algorithm (q-FPS), which creates a superposition of full random path solutions, manipulates probability amplitudes with Quantum Amplitude Amplification (QAA), and quantum measures a single obstacle free full path solution. For dense unstructured environments, we formulate the Quantum Rapidly Exploring Random Tree algorithm, q-RRT, that creates quantum superpositions of possible parent-child connections, manipulates probability amplitudes with QAA, and quantum measures a single reachable state, which is added to a tree. As performance depends on the number of oracle calls and the probability of measuring good quantum states, we quantify how these errors factor into the probabilistic completeness properties of the algorithm. We then numerically estimate the expected number of database solutions to provide an approximation of the optimal number of oracle calls in the algorithm. We compare the q-RRT algorithm with a classical implementation and verify quadratic run-time speedup in the largest connected component of a 2D dense random lattice. We conclude by evaluating a proposed approach to limit the expected number of database solutions and thus limit the optimal number of oracle calls to a given number.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Monte Carlo study of Weibull reliability analysis for space shuttle main engine components

The incorporation of a number of additional capabilities into an existing Weibull analysis computer program and the results of Monte Carlo computer simulation study to evaluate the usefulness of the Weibull methods using samples with a very small number of failures and extensive censoring are discussed. Since the censoring mechanism inherent in the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) data is hard to analyze, it was decided to use a random censoring model, generating censoring times from a uniform probability distribution. Some of the statistical techniques and computer programs that are used in the SSME Weibull analysis are described. The methods documented in were supplemented by adding computer calculations of approximate (using iteractive methods) confidence intervals for several parameters of interest. These calculations are based on a likelihood ratio statistic which is asymptotically a chisquared statistic with one degree of freedom. The assumptions built into the computer simulations are described. The simulation program and the techniques used in it are described there also. Simulation results are tabulated for various combinations of Weibull shape parameters and the numbers of failures in the samples.

Abernethy, K.↗

Predicting oxidation damage in ultra high-temperature borides: A machine learning approach

Ultra-high temperature (UHT) borides are ceramics materials with melting points above 3000 °C for structural applications in extreme environments. However, at temperatures exceeding 1600 °C and under oxidizing conditions, the material suffers from detrimental degradation. Optimized design and performance of diboride materials under such extreme conditions requires filling the missing composition-microstructure-oxidation gap. This study proposes a computational data-driven framework to connect the processing and microstructure of Ultra-high temperature borides with the oxidation damage. Random Forest Regressor (RFR) model is adopted to forecast the oxide scale thickness developed after oxidation testing based on processing variables and microstructural features. The model trained on a dataset consisting of 107 samples of experimental data extracted from the literature aims to predict oxidation damage. With proper data manipulation and fine model tuning, the predictor could forecast the oxide scale thickness of UHT diborides with a Mean Absolute Error of 37.45 μm and an R-square of 0.83. This model could be used as a high-throughput scheme to design and test new UHT diborides materials computationally. Furthermore, a model with larger composition capabilities could also be developed in the future as more experimental data become available.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

AC Magnetic Susceptibility of Y{sub 3}Ba{sub 5}Cu{sub 8}O{sub 18} Substituted by Nd{sup 3+} and Ca{sup 2+} Ions

Effect of Nd{sup 3+} and Ca{sup 2+} ion substitutions in Y{sub 3}Ba{sub 5}Cu{sub 8}O{sub 18} (Y-358) was studied using X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), electrical resistivity, and ac magnetic susceptibility measurements. Superconducting samples of type Y{sub 3 − x}Nd{sub x}Ba{sub 5 − y}Ca{sub y}Cu{sub 8}O{sub 18} (with 0 ≤ x, y ≤ 0.4) were synthesized by the standard solid-state reaction technique. XRD patterns revealed that all the samples were mainly composed of Y-358 phase with orthorhombic structure. SEM micrographs showed that Nd{sup 3+} and Ca{sup 2+} ion substitutions had the ability to alter the grain morphology of Y-358 to irregular randomly oriented grains with smaller average grain sizes. The temperature-dependent electrical resistivity curves indicated that the superconducting transition temperature T{sub c} was decreased from 96.51 to 87.41 K as the substitution contents were increased from 0 to 0.4. Detailed AC magnetic susceptibility measurements were done using a quantum design physical property measurement system (PPMS) at different dc fields (B = 0.5–20 kG) and frequency of 1 kHz. A comparison between electrical resistivity and AC magnetic susceptibility data was performed. It was found that T{sub cs} obtained from AC magnetic susceptibility were much lower than those obtained from the resistivity measurements, for all studied samples. This was discussed in terms of filamentary paths that could produce sharp pronounced drops in diamagnetism. Generally, the depression in T{sub c} was attributed to the decrease in relative volume fraction of Y-358 or due to trapping of mobile holes or other mechanism connected with oxygen vacancy disorder. Werthamer–Helfand–Hohenberg (WHH) theory was employed to study the temperature dependence of the upper critical magnetic field B{sub c2}(T) for the samples. The relative importance of both orbital and paramagnetic effects in the suppression of superconductivity was described with the aid of Maki parameter (κ{sub M}). The estimated values of the upper critical magnetic field at 0 K, B{sub c2}(0), were found to decrease from 37.3 to 13.5 T as Nd{sup 3+} and Ca{sup 2+} contents were increased from 0 to 0.4. This decrement was attributed to the weak electron–phonon coupling and to the orbital as well as spin pair breaking mechanisms. Furthermore, Ginzburg–Landau coherence length ξ{sub GL} of Y{sub 3 − x}Nd{sub x}Ba{sub 5 − y}Ca{sub y}Cu{sub 8}O{sub 18} was found to increase with the increase of the Nd{sup 3+} and Ca{sup 2+} contents. Therefore, Nd{sup 3+} and Ca{sup 2+} ions play an important role in the pair-breaking mechanism and in suppressing superconductivity of the Y-358 phase.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Ensemble methods for quantification of potassium oxide in ChemCam Mars and laboratory spectra

In this paper we test new approaches for predicting the amount of element oxides in rock samples from the ChemCam instrument suite onboard the NASA Curiosity rover by focusing on K 2 O. Using the expanded dataset compiled by Gasda et al. (2021) with and without the Earth to Mars (E2M and NoE2M) transformation discussed in Clegg et al. (2017) we trained blended submodels using the “double blending” technique and compared these to ensemble methods (Random Forest, ExtraTrees, and Gradient Boosting Regression). We found that ensemble methods performed similar to blended submodels when looking at RMSE-P on the laboratory spectra and provided significant advantages when looking at spectra coming from Mars. For the full model, blended submodels achieved an RMSE-P of 0.62 and 0.60 (E2M and NoE2M respectively) while Gradient Boosting Regression resulted in a slightly improved RMSE-P of 0.59 and 0.60. More importantly, by employing a local RMSE-P estimation technique where model performance is evaluated based on nearby test samples we found that using ensemble methods can lower the quantification limit for K 2 O from the current value of ≈0.6 wt% to ≈0.08 wt% using Extra Trees and Random Forest. This would allow for a much larger range of K 2 O values to be quantified on Mars with greater certainty given that most targets seen on Mars tend to have <1 wt% K2O. Finally, we used both Mean Decrease in Impurity (MDI) and permutation importance techniques to investigate the wavelengths used by the ensemble methods and found that they correspond to known potassium emission lines. This suggests that ensemble methods can provide an easier to train and improved alternative to blended submodels for predicting potassium compositions from Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The hyperplane of early-type galaxies: using stellar population properties to increase the precision and accuracy of the fundamental plane as a distance indicator

ABSTRACT We use deep spectroscopy from the SAMI (Sydney-AAO Multi-object Integral) Galaxy Survey to explore the precision of the fundamental plane (FP) of early-type galaxies as a distance indicator for future single-fibre spectroscopy surveys. We study the optimal trade-off between sample size and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and investigate which additional observables can be used to construct hyperplanes with smaller intrinsic scatter than the FP. We add increasing levels of random noise (parametrized as effective exposure time) to the SAMI spectra to study the effect of increasing measurement uncertainties on the FP- and hyperplane-inferred distances. We find that, using direct-fit methods, the values of the FP and hyperplane best-fitting coefficients depend on the spectral SNR, and reach asymptotic values for a mean $\langle \mathrm{ SNR} \rangle =40\, \mathrm{\mathring{\rm A}}^{-1}$. As additional variables for the FP we consider three stellar-population observables: light-weighted age, stellar mass-to-light ratio, and a novel combination of Lick indices ($I_\mathrm{age}$). For an $\langle \mathrm{ SNR} \rangle =45~\mathrm{\mathring{\rm A}}^{-1}$ (equivalent to 1-h exposure on a 4-m telescope), all three hyperplanes outperform the FP as distance indicators. Being an empirical spectral index, $I_\mathrm{age}$ avoids the model-dependent uncertainties and bias underlying age and mass-to-light ratio measurements, yet yields a 10 per cent reduction of the median distance uncertainty compared to the FP. We also find that, as a by-product, the $I_\mathrm{age}$ hyperplane removes most of the reported environment bias of the FP. After accounting for the different SNR, these conclusions also apply to a 50 times larger sample from SDSS-III (Sloan Digital Sky Survey). However, in this case, only $\mathrm{ age}$ removes the environment bias.

D’Eugenio, Francesco (ORCID:0000000323888172)↗

Disorder-to-Order Transition Mediated by Size Refocusing: A Route toward Monodisperse Intermetallic Nanoparticles

Intermetallic nanoparticles are remarkable because of their often enhanced catalytic, magnetic, and optical properties, which arise from their ordered crystal structures and high structural stability. Typical syntheses of intermetallic nanoparticles include thermal annealing of the disordered counterpart in atmosphere (or vacuum) or colloidal syntheses, where the phase transformation is achieved in solution. Although both methods can produce intermetallic nanoparticles, there is difficulty in achieving monodisperse nanoparticles, which is critical to exploiting their properties for various applications. In this work, we demonstrate that overgrowth on random alloy AuCu nanoparticles mediated by size refocusing yields monodisperse intermetallic AuCu nanoparticles. Size refocusing has been used in syntheses of semiconductor and upconverting nanocrystals to achieve monodisperse samples, but now we demonstrate size refocusing as a mechanism to achieve the disorder-to-order phase transformation in multimetallic nanoparticles. The phase transformation was monitored by time evolution experiments, where analysis of reaction aliquots with transmission electron microscopy and powder X-ray diffraction revealed the generation and dissolution of small nanoparticles coupled with an increase in the average size of the nanoparticles and conversion to the ordered phase. This demonstration advances the understanding of intermetallic nanoparticle formation in colloidal syntheses, which can expedite the development of electrocatalysts and magnetic storage materials.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Machine learning prediction of incidence of Alzheimer’s disease using large-scale administrative health data

Nationwide population-based cohort provides a new opportunity to build an automated risk prediction model based on individuals’ history of health and healthcare beyond existing risk prediction models. We tested the possibility of machine learning models to predict future incidence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) using large-scale administrative health data. From the Korean National Health Insurance Service database between 2002 and 2010, we obtained de-identified health data in elders above 65 years (N = 40,736) containing 4,894 unique clinical features including ICD-10 codes, medication codes, laboratory values, history of personal and family illness and socio-demographics. To define incident AD we considered two operational definitions: “definite AD” with diagnostic codes and dementia medication (n = 614) and “probable AD” with only diagnosis (n = 2026). We trained and validated random forest, support vector machine and logistic regression to predict incident AD in 1, 2, 3, and 4 subsequent years. For predicting future incidence of AD in balanced samples (bootstrapping), the machine learning models showed reasonable performance in 1-year prediction with AUC of 0.775 and 0.759, based on “definite AD” and “probable AD” outcomes, respectively; in 2-year, 0.730 and 0.693; in 3-year, 0.677 and 0.644; in 4-year, 0.725 and 0.683. The results were similar when the entire (unbalanced) samples were used. Important clinical features selected in logistic regression included hemoglobin level, age and urine protein level. This study may shed a light on the utility of the data-driven machine learning model based on large-scale administrative health data in AD risk prediction, which may enable better selection of individuals at risk for AD in clinical trials or early detection in clinical settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Window convolution of the galaxy clustering bispectrum

In galaxy survey analysis, the observed clustering statistics do not directly match theoretical predictions but rather have been processed by a window function that arises from the survey geometry including the sky footprint, redshift-dependent background number density and systematic weights. While window convolution of the power spectrum is well studied, for the bispectrum with a larger number of degrees of freedom, it poses a significant numerical and computational challenge. In this work, we consider the effect of the survey window in the tripolar spherical harmonic decomposition of the bispectrum and lay down a formal procedure for their convolution via a series expansion of configuration-space three-point correlation functions, which was first proposed by Sugiyama et al. (2019). We then provide a linear algebra formulation of the full window convolution, where an unwindowed bispectrum model vector can be directly premultiplied by a window matrix specific to each survey geometry. To validate the pipeline, we focus on the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1 (DR1) luminous red galaxy (LRG) sample in the South Galactic Cap (SGC) in the redshift bin 0.4 ≤ z ≤ 0.6. We first perform convergence checks on the measurement of the window function from discrete random catalogues, and then investigate the convergence of the window convolution series expansion truncated at a finite of number of terms as well as the performance of the window matrix. This work highlights the differences in window convolution between the power spectrum and bispectrum, and provides a streamlined pipeline for the latter for current surveys such as DESI and the Euclid mission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Neutral but Impactful: Gallium Cluster-Induced Nanopores from Beam-Blanked Gallium Ion Sources

Neutral atoms originating from liquid metal ion sources are an often-overlooked source of contamination and damage in focused ion beam microscopy. Beyond ions and single atoms, these sources also generate atom clusters. While most studies have investigated charged clusters, here we demonstrate that neutral clusters are also formed. These neutral clusters bypass the electrostatic beam blanking system, allowing them to impinge on samples even when the ion beam is blanked. We investigate this phenomenon using thin (≤20 nm) freestanding membranes of hexagonal boron nitride, silicon, and silicon nitride as targets. Randomly dispersed nanopores that form upon neutral cluster exposure are revealed. The average nanopore diameter is ∼2 nm with a narrow size distribution, suggesting that the atom clusters have a preferred size. Various electron microscopy techniques are used to characterize the nanopores, including high-resolution transmission electron microscopy, multislice ptychography, and electron energy-loss spectroscopy. Finally, we show how electron irradiation in the transmission electron microscope can be used to both remove any amorphous material that may clog the pores and to controllably grow the pores to specific sizes. Tunable nanopores such as these are interesting for nanofluidic applications requiring size-selective membranes.

Byrne, Dana O↗

Photometric classification and redshift estimation of LSST Supernovae

Supernova (SN) classification and redshift estimation using photometric data only have become very important for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), given the large number of SNe that LSST will observe and the impossibility of spectroscopically following up all the SNe. We investigate the performance of an SN classifier that uses SN colours to classify LSST SNe with the Random Forest classification algorithm. Our classifier results in an area-under-the-curve of 0.98 which represents excellent classification. We are able to obtain a photometric SN sample containing 99 percent SNe Ia by choosing a probability threshold. We estimate the photometric redshifts (photo-z) of SNe in our sample by fitting the SN light curves using the SALT2 model with nested sampling. We obtain a mean bias ($\langle$z phot - z spec $\rangle$) of 0.012 with σ($\frac{zphot-zspec}{1+zspec}$)=0.0294 σ(zphot-zspec1+zspec)=0.0294 without using a host-galaxy photo-z prior, and a mean bias ($\langle$z phot - z spec $\rangle$) of 0.0017 with σ($\frac{zphot-zspec}{1+zspec}$)=0.0116 using a host-galaxy photo-z prior. Assuming a flat ΛCDM model with Ω m = 0.3, we obtain Ω m of 0.305 ± 0.008 (statistical errors only), using the simulated LSST sample of photometric SNe Ia (with intrinsic scatter σ int = 0.11) derived using our methodology without using host-galaxy photo-z prior. Our method will help boost the power of SNe from the LSST as cosmological probes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluating the impact of anatomical and physiological variability on human equivalent doses using PBPK models

Abstract Addressing human anatomical and physiological variability is a crucial component of human health risk assessment of chemicals. Experts have recommended probabilistic chemical risk assessment paradigms in which distributional adjustment factors are used to account for various sources of uncertainty and variability, including variability in the pharmacokinetic behavior of a given substance in different humans. In practice, convenient assumptions about the distribution forms of adjustment factors and human equivalent doses (HEDs) are often used. Parameters such as tissue volumes and blood flows are likewise often assumed to be lognormally or normally distributed without evaluating empirical data for consistency with these forms. In this work, we performed dosimetric extrapolations using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for dichloromethane (DCM) and chloroform that incorporate uncertainty and variability to determine if the HEDs associated with such extrapolations are approximately lognormal and how they depend on the underlying distribution shapes chosen to represent model parameters. We accounted for uncertainty and variability in PBPK model parameters by randomly drawing their values from a variety of distribution types. We then performed reverse dosimetry to calculate HEDs based on animal points of departure for each set of sampled parameters. Corresponding samples of HEDs were tested to determine the impact of input parameter distributions on their central tendencies, extreme percentiles, and degree of conformance to lognormality. This work demonstrates that the measurable attributes of human variability should be considered more carefully and that generalized assumptions about parameter distribution shapes may lead to inaccurate estimates of extreme percentiles of HEDs.

Toxicology↗