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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8

Improved Method for Evaluating and Specifying the Chromaticity of Light Sources

This article recommends a method for calculating and specifying light source chromaticity using the CIE 2015 10° color matching functions (CMFs), which, according to analysis of existing psychophysical experiment data, can reduce visual mismatch compared to specifications based on the traditional CIE 1931 2° CMFs. Specifically, this work evaluates, documents, and recommends for adoption a supporting system of measures to be used with the CIE 2015 10° CMFs: a new uniform chromaticity scale (UCS) diagram with coordinates (s, t), a measure of correlated color temperature (CCTst), and a measure of distance from the Planckian locus (Dst). It also presents options for updating nominal classification quadrangles. A complete method of this nature has not yet been standardized, which may be contributing to the slow uptake of the CIE 2015 CMFs. The proposed tools are analogous to u, v, CCT, Duv, and the ANSI C78.377 nominal classification quadrangles that are currently specified in the CIE 1960 UCS using the CIE 1931 2° CMFs. While conceptually equivalent, the differences between the current standard method and the new st system are important for reducing unintended mismatch in the chromaticity of light. Furthermore, the implications of changing chromaticity specification methods are identified by a comparison over a diverse set of real light source SPDs. Finally, as a step toward improving the design and specification of light sources for illumination purposes, we propose a process for implementing the recommendations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Substantial carbon loss respired from a corn–soybean agroecosystem highlights the importance of careful management as we adapt to changing climate

Understanding agroecosystem carbon (C) cycle response to climate change and management is vital for maintaining their long-term C storage. We demonstrate this importance through an in-depth examination of a ten-year eddy covariance dataset from a corn–corn–soybean crop rotation grown in the Midwest United States. Ten-year average annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) showed a net C sink of –0.39 Mg C ha –1 yr –1 . However, NEE in 2014 and 2015 from the corn ecosystem was 3.58 and 2.56 Mg C ha –1 yr –1 , respectively. Most C loss occurred during the growing season, when photosynthesis should dominate and C fluxes should reflect a net ecosystem gain. Partitioning NEE into gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) showed this C 'burp' was driven by higher ER, with a 51% (2014) and 57% (2015) increase from the ten-year average (15.84 Mg C ha –1 yr –1 ). GPP was also higher than average (16.24 Mg C ha –1 yr –1 ) by 25% (2014) and 37% (2015), but this was not enough to offset the C emitted from ER. This increased ER was likely driven by enhanced soil microbial respiration associated with ideal growing season climate, substrate availability, nutrient additions, and a potential legacy effect from drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A near magnetic-to-kinetic energy equipartition flare from the relativistic jet in AO 0235 + 164 during 2013–2019

ABSTRACT We present the multiwavelength flaring activity of the blazar AO 0235 + 164 during its recent active period from 2013 to 2019. From a discrete correlation function analysis, we find a significant ($\gt 95~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$) correlation between radio and gamma-ray light curves with flares at longer wavelengths following flares at shorter wavelengths. We identify a new jet component in 43 GHz Very Long Baseline Array data that was ejected from the radio core on MJD $57246^{+26}_{-30}$ (2015 August 12), during the peak of the 2015 radio flare. From the analysis of the jet component, we derived a Doppler factor of δvar = 28.5 ± 8.4, a bulk Lorentz factor of $\Gamma =16.8^{+3.6}_{-3.1}$, and an intrinsic viewing angle of $\theta _{\rm v}=1.42^{+1.07}_{-0.52}\textrm {~degrees}$. Investigation of the quasi-simultaneous radio data revealed a partially absorbed spectrum with the turnover frequency varying in the range of 10−70 GHz and the peak flux density varying in the range of 0.7−4 Jy. We find the synchrotron self-absorption magnetic field strength to be $B_{\rm SSA}=15.3^{+12.6}_{-14.0}\textrm {~mG}$ at the peak of the 2015 radio flare, which is comparable to the equipartition magnetic field strength of $B_{\rm EQ}=43.6^{+10.6}_{-10.4}\textrm {~mG}$ calculated for the same epoch. Additional analysis of the radio emission region in the relativistic jet of AO 0235 + 164 suggests that it did not significantly deviate from equipartition during its recent flaring activity.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Complete β-decay patterns of 142 Cs, 142 Ba, and 142 La determined using total absorption spectroscopy

Background: The β decays of fission products produced in nuclear fuel are important for nuclear energy applications and fundamental science of reactor antineutrinos. In particular, nuclear reactor safety is related to the decay modes of radioactive neutron-rich nuclei, primarily via the emission of γ rays, neutrons, and electrons. Additionally nuclear reactors are the most powerful man-made source of antineutrinos emitted during the β decay of fission products. These antineutrinos are used to inspect fundamental properties of leptons as well as informing reactor operation. However, the majority of data on complex decays of fission products collected in the evaluated nuclear data repositories like Evaluated Nuclear Structure Data File (ENSDF) and Evaluated Nuclear Data Files (ENDF) are based on low-efficiency and often incomplete measurements resulting in questionable reference reactor antineutrino flux predictions, see the analysis by [Nichols, J. Nucl. Sci. Technol. 52, 17 (2015)]. Various assessments like the one done under the auspices of the [Yoshida et al., Assessment of Fission Product Decay Data for Decay Heat Calculations: A report by the Working Party on International Evaluation Co-operation of the Nuclear Energy Agency Nuclear Science Committee (Nuclear Energy Agency, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris, France, 2007), Vol. 25], as well as by [Sonzogni, Johnson, and McCutchan, Phys. Rev. C 91, 011301(R) (2015)] and [Dwyer and Langford, Phys. Rev. Lett. 114, 012502 (2015)], list the A = 142 isobars with high cumulative fission yield among the important nuclei where data for reactor decay heat and/or antineutrino production should be verified and/or improved. Purpose: Here, our goal is to improve the quality of β -decay measurements and evaluate the impact of modified decay schemes on reactor decay heat and antineutrino energy spectra, for fission products along the A = 142 isobaric chain. This work is an in depth follow-up on [Rasco et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 117, 092501 (2016)]. which presented briefly the impact of the corrected decay scheme of 142 Cs . Here, we extend the data to full isobaric decay chain including the daughter nuclei, 142 Ba and 142 La, and present more details on the 142 Cs results. Method: The decays of neutron-rich isobars of mass A = 142 produced by means of proton-induced fission of 238 U were measured using the Modular Total Absorption Spectrometer (MTAS) array on-line at the mass separator and Tandem accelerator at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Results: The β -decay schemes for 142 Cs and 142 La were modified with respect to the nuclear data repositories. A small β-delayed neutron branching ratio for 142 Cs emitter was remeasured as $0.10^{+5}_{–3}% %. Improved precision on the measured half-lives is reported. Small corrections to the low-energy decay of 142 Ba are made. The β-decay patterns for 142 La and 142 Cs are presented. The decay heat release and cross section for the detection of reactor antineutrinos are deduced and compared to earlier results. Conclusions: The β-feeding pattern for 142 Cs having decay energy value $Q_β$ of over 7 MeV was substantially modified with respect to the current ENSDF entry. Smaller changes were encountered for 142 La, but since this A = 142 isobar also has a large cumulative yield in fission, the changes influence both decay heat and the antineutrino spectra. The previously known β intensities for 142 Ba decay ($Q_β$ value of 2.2 MeV) were verified and slightly modified. Overall, increased decay heat values and lower flux of antineutrinos interacting with matter are presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Trends in Regional Nodal Management of Breast Cancer Patients with Low Nodal Burden

Background: American College of Surgeons Oncology Group Z0011 confirms the safety of omitting axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) and regional nodal irradiation (RNI) in breast cancer patients with one to two positive sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs), without compromising disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). In contrast, the NCIC MA20 trial showed improved DFS in node-positive patients undergoing ALND and RNI. We sought to examine how these data have influenced the management of patients with limited nodal burden. Methods: Using the National Cancer Database, patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 and who met the criteria for Z0011 were identified. Logistic regression was used to analyze factors associated with practice patterns. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the association of ALND and RNI with OS. Results: Omission of ALND in Z0011-eligible patients reached 89.2% in 2015. This Z0011-compliant group was more likely to undergo RNI compared with the non-compliant group (36.4% vs. 31.3%; p < 0.05), with RNI increasing to 43.8% by 2015. Factors associated with the use of RNI included later year of diagnosis [odds ratio (OR) 1.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6–2.1], hormone receptor-negative tumor (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1–1.4), grade 3 tumor (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1–1.3), treatment at a non-academic site (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1–1.3) and two versus one positive SLN (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.8–2.2). With 43 months median follow-up, RNI was not associated with improved OS. Conclusion: Since the publication of Z0011, the omission of ALND has become widespread; however nearly half of these women now receive RNI. The optimal radiation therapy approach for this low nodal burden population warrants further study.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Genome-resolved metagenomics and metatranscriptomics of microbial communities in three meander-bound floodplain soils along the East River, Colorado.

This dataset comprises paired environmental and genomic data for soil samples collected across meander-bound floodplains G (ERMG), L (ERML) and Z (ERMZ). A total of 96 soil samples (32 per floodplain) from the ~ 10-25 cm layer were collected in September 2015, during base flow conditions. An additional 32 soil samples were collected from ERML in September 2016, including three samples from a depth just above the water table. A subset of samples (14) collected in 2016 were used for metatranscriptomics as well as metagenomics. The data package includes: 1) A spread sheet with sample names, location and depth by meander-bound floodplain. 2) Total organic carbon (TOC), total inorganic carbon (TIC), total carbon (TC = TOC + TIC), total nitrogen (TN), and the TOC to TN ratio (TOC:N) from 2015 subsamples. 3) Soil chemistry for 2016 subsamples. 4) A spread sheet with elevation, Easting, Northing, and topographic position index (TPI) for each site sampled in 2015. 5) A kml file, which can be viewed in Google Earth, with the locations of the 96 soil sampling sites along the East River Watershed Floodplain in Colorado. Metagenomics and metatranscriptomics data, as well as reconstructed genomes, are available elsewhere (see data package methods and bioRxiv preprint for links to the data). 6) Two sets of reconstructed genomes with overlapping members (see bioRxiv preprint for description and associated data). Metagenomes and metatranscriptomes are available elsewhere (see data package methods and bioRxiv preprint). To view tar.gz files, the following software can be used: https://www.gnu.org/software/tar/, https://www.7-zip.org/.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data from "A Bayesian Record Linkage Approach to Applications in Tree Demography Using Overlapping LiDAR Scans"

Processed LiDAR data and environmental covariates from 2015 and 2019 LiDAR scans in the Vicinity of Snodgrass Mountain (Western Colorado, USA), in a geographic subset used in primary analysis for the research paper.This package contains LiDAR-derived canopy height maps for 2015 and 2019, crown polygons derived from the height maps using a segmentation algorithm, and environmental covariates supporting the model of forest growth. Source datasets include August 2015 and August 2019 discrete-return LiDAR point clouds collected by Quantum Geospatial for terrain mapping purposes on behalf of the Colorado Hazard Mapping Program and the Colorado Water Conservation Board. Both datasets adhere to the USGS QL2 quality standard. The point cloud data were processed using the R package lidR to generate a canopy height model representing maximum vegetation height above the ground surface, using a pit-free algorithm.This dataset was compiled to assess how spatial patterns of tree growth in montane and subalpine forests are influenced by water and energy availability. Understanding these growth patterns can provide insight into forest dynamics in the Southern Rocky Mountains under changing climatic conditions.This dataset contains .tif, .csv, and .txt files. This dataset additionally includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Corrective Action Management Unit Report of Post-Closure Care Activities Calendar Year 2019

The Corrective Action Management Unit (CAMU) at Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico (SNL/NM) consists of a containment cell and ancillary systems that underwent closure in 2003 in accordance with the Closure Plan in Appendix D of the Class 3 Permit Modification (SNL/NM September 1997). The containment cell was closed with wastes in place. On January 27, 2015, the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) issued the Hazardous Waste Facility Operating Permit (Permit) for Sandia National Laboratories (NMED January 2015) to the U.S. Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA) and its Management and Operating (M&O) contractor. The current M&O contractor is National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC (NTESS). The Permit became effective February 26, 2015. The CAMU is undergoing post-closure care in accordance with the Permit, as revised and updated. This CAMU Report of Post-Closure Care Activities documents all activities and results for calendar year (CY) 2019, as required by the Permit.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

LANL Meteorological Program Self-Assessment 2020 Update

The DOE Meteorological Coordinating Council (DMCC) conducted an initial Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) meteorological program Assist Visit in August 2006 and several observations and recommendations were shared with LANL management (DMCC 2006). In August 2015, a follow-up meteorological program Assist Visit was conducted to determine progress in meeting all the observations and recommendations from the prior Assist Visit (DMCC 2015). During the 9 years between these two Assist Visits, DMCC noted that significant program improvements were made, and these were noted in the 2015 Assist Visit observations and recommendations

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Corrective Action Management Unit Report of Post-Closure Care Activities. Calendar Year 2020

he Corrective Action Management Unit (CAMU) at Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico (SNL/NM) consists of a containment cell and ancillary systems that underwent closure in 2003 in accordance with the Closure Plan in Appendix D of the Class 3 Permit Modification (SNL/NM September 1997). The containment cell was closed with wastes in place. On January 27, 2015, the New Mexico Environment Department issued the Hazardous Waste Facility Operating Permit (Permit) for Sandia National Laboratories (NMED January 2015) to the U.S. Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA) and its Management and Operating (M&O) contractor. The current M&O contractor is National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC (NTESS). The Permit became effective February 26, 2015. The CAMU is undergoing post-closure care in accordance with the Permit, as revised and updated. This CAMU Report of Post-Closure Care Activities documents all activities and results for calendar year (CY) 2020, as required by the Permit.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

LANL Meteorological Program Self-Assessment (2022 Update)

The DMCC conducted an initial LANL Meteorological (Met) Program Assist Visit in August 2006, and several observations and recommendations were shared with LANL management (DMCC 2006). In August 2015, a follow-up Met Program Assist Visit was conducted to determine progress in meeting all the observations and recommendations from the prior Assist Visit (DMCC 2015). During the 9 years between these two Assist Visits, DMCC noted that significant program improvements were made, and these were noted in the 2015 Assist Visit observations and recommendations. Based on current discussions with the Met Program, additional significant improvements have been made and will be discussed as part of this self-assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Automated, Unmanned Detection and Quantification of Fugitive Methane Emissions

Compressor stations used to move natural gas are one of the largest sources of fugitive methane emissions in the midstream sector, accounting for approximately 50% of all fugitive emissions (Zimmerle et al., 2015). This problem is most widespread at reciprocating compressors (Subramanian et al., 2015) where faulty seals are a key contributor to methane emissions (Johnson et al., 2015). As such, there is a significant need for a robust technology that could provide an early indication of an unexpected emission. Equally important, the technology needs to be able to account for biogenic versus anthropogenic sources of methane. One means of indirectly making this determination, is to leverage optical technologies that can autonomously pinpoint the source of such leaks. This presentation discusses recent work funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), focused on the development of an innovative remote sensing technology that can reliably and autonomously detect fugitive methane emissions in near real-time, using computer vision and deep learning. The technology called the Smart Methane Leak Detection (SLED/M) system was initially developed to monitor facilities such as compressor stations in a stationary, pan-tilt-zoom configuration. The system has recently been adapted to monitor facilities from an unmanned aerial system (UAS). The speed and maneuverability of UAS platforms are attractive to leak detection and repair program operators, but introduce several challenges. Many existing methane detection algorithms rely on mostly static backgrounds becoming unusable with motion. In addition, top-down views of fugitive methane emissions present differently in Optical Gas Imagers (OGI) compared to looking across the plume. Our work has focused on overcoming these challenges, enhancing the operators ability to detect methane emissions, and pinpoint their sources. Another recent adaptation to SLED/M is the ability to quantify methane emissions using passive sensors (OGI, thermal camera), environmental conditions, plume modeling, and deep learning. SLED/M advances the state-of-the-art for methane emission detection and quantification by focusing on three key critical criteria for effective methane emission mitigation: (1) autonomy (no need for a human to be in the loop), (2) high reliability (low false alarm rates), and (3) real-time performance. Results from this work will be presented.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the Hanford Site Central Plateau (FY 2020) (Rev. 2)

This document provides an updated Hanford Site composite analysis (CA). A Hanford Site CA was prepared and issued in 1998 (PNNL-11800) with an addendum provided in 2002 (PNNL-11800 Addendum 1). The CA was approved in 2002 (Frei, 2002) and has been maintained (DOE/RL-2000-29 and subsequent revisions) to support low-level waste disposal performance assessments (PAs) and disposal authorizations for facilities at the Hanford Site, including the following: Continued operation of the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF) and the 200 East and 200 West Low-Level Burial Grounds; Construction of the Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF); Forthcoming closure of tank residual waste systems such as Waste Management Area (WMA) C. The CA maintenance program resulted in a determination in 2015 (DOE/RL-2015-66) that the Hanford Site CA needed an update for the following reasons: While the initial Hanford Site CA has been maintained since 2001, the accumulation of basis changes reported in the annual summary reports over the succeeding 14 years merit evaluation in an updated analysis; The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Headquarters requested in a memorandum in 2015 (Gilbertson and Marcinowski, 2015) that “as soon as the relevant PAs are complete, the CA will be revised to account for all of the new information.” This updated Hanford Site CA accounts for the following new information: 1. Inclusion of a detailed Hanford Site baseline disposition that projects remedial activities through site closure. There have been significant changes through decision making in the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) process that were not available when the original CA was produced; 2. Inclusion of an updated inventory basis, new modeling capabilities, and new decisions reached in the associated record of decision (ROD) that was provided by issuance of DOE/EIS-0391 in fiscal year (FY) 2013. Development of a Hanford Site groundwater model from the baseline provided in a technical transfer of models for the Final Tank Closure and Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement (DOE/EIS-0391) commenced in FY 2014 and resulted in the plateau-to-river (P2R) groundwater flow model that is used in this updated Hanford Site CA; 3. Accounting for pump and treat systems, which were not evaluated in the initial CA. Pump and treat systems have had significant impact on groundwater flow system behavior, contaminant transport, and contaminant removal from Hanford Site groundwater. This process is accounted for in the use of the P2R model for this updated Hanford Site CA; 4. Inclusion of water-level data collected since the initial CA was completed. Data collected as the unconfined aquifer water levels continue to recede since the cessation of large liquid discharges in the late 1990s have led to marked improvement in understanding of the flow system for future conditions, particularly regarding northward flow potential in the critical Gable Gap area. The calibration in the latest version of the P2R model accounts for this information; 5. Inclusion of results from the revised ERDF PA completed in 2013 (WCH-5209) that account for updated inventory and expansion of the ERDF facility to about twice the size that was evaluated in the original CA; 6. Use of updated geoframeworks to provide the structural basis for numerical fate and transport models in the groundwater pathway of this updated CA. The geologic basis for groundwater models has continued to improve with additional data collection and interpretation with the creation and maintenance of the Hanford South Geoframework and the Central Plateau Vadose Zone Geoframework tools; 7. Incorporation of updated tank residual inventory estimates. Tank residual inventory estimates have improved with the incorporation of tank retrieval inventory data for those tanks that have completed retrieval. The CA inventory data package includes this updated information; 8. Incorporation of WMA C PA results. Two additional PAs for tank farm closure decisions are in preparation during the period required to prepare an updated Hanford Site CA: WMA C (FY 2016) and WMA A-AX (in preparation). The WMA C PA results are incorporated into the updated Hanford Site CA, and its grouted residuals model is used as the basis for a release model to account for the other tank farm systems modeling in this updated CA; 9. An update to the IDF PA was submitted in FY 2017 and has been reviewed and approved. The results of the IDF PA are incorporated into this updated CA; 10. Updated risk assessment scenarios. The risk assessment scenarios currently in use for Hanford Site CERCLA and Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) analyses differ from those evaluated in the initial Hanford Site CA. The representative person exposure scenario evaluated in this updated Hanford Site CA is consistent with recent PAs and CERCLA and RCRA analyses as the Hanford Site. This updated Hanford Site CA provides the following: A comparison of the updated Hanford Site CA all-pathway dose results with the performance measures during the compliance period, which is assumed to begin with site closure in calendar 2070 with the last scheduled disposal action and continue for 1,000 years postclosure (to calendar year 3069); A comparison of Hanford Site CA all-pathway dose results with the performance measures during the postcompliance period to address potential peaks beyond the compliance period. This is accomplished by evaluating dose in the period for 9,000 years following the compliance period (i.e., from calendar year 3070 to 12070).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) Field Campaign Report

Convective clouds serve a critical role in the Earth’s energy and water cycles through their transport of heat, moisture, momentum, and chemical species through the troposphere driving the global circulation (e.g., Hartmann et al. 1984, Del Genio et al. 2012, Su et al. 2014). On more local scales, convective clouds impact the atmospheric heating profile through diabatic heating effects, removal of water from the atmospheric column through precipitation, and conditioning of the local environment impacting further development of clouds (e.g., Sullivan and Voigt 2021). These critical roles underscore the importance of realistic representation of convective processes across scales of models from large-eddy simulation (LES), to convection-permitting models (CPM; e.g., Kendon et al. 2020, Marinescu et al. 2021), to numerical weather prediction (NWP) models used for operational weather forecasting, to Earth system models used to predict climate sensitivity (Sanderson et al. 2011, Sherwood et al. 2014, Tomassini et al. 2014, Zhao et al. 2016, Cronin et al. 2017). A key component of improving model representation of convective clouds is better quantification and parameterization of updraft microphysics and dynamics, including their interactions with the surrounding environment and storm organization (Bony et al. 2015, Hagos and Houze 2016, Donner et al. 2016, Morrison et al. 2020). Aerosol is an important environmental factor that could affect convective clouds and precipitation since cloud droplet and ice formation processes are initiated by it. Andrae et al. (2004) hypothesized that aerosols associated with increased biomass burning particles acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) result in smaller and more monodisperse cloud droplets leading to suppression of warm rain formation, ultimately leading to more cloud water being lofted above the freezing level based on observations in the Amazon region. The subsequent increase in latent heat release increases the buoyancy of rising convective parcels invigorating the deep convection. This work was followed by a description of the theoretical basis for this “cold-phase invigoration” by Rosenfeld et al. (2008), who argued that it could have a significant effect for deep convective clouds with warm cloud-bases. Several modeling studies (e.g., Khain et al. 2005, 2009, van den Heever et al. 2006, Fan et al. 2007, 2009, 2012, Lee et al. 2008, Storer et al. 2010, Lebo et al. 2012, Storer and van den Heever 2013, Chen et al. 2020, Dagan et al. 2022) have investigated these aerosol-convection interactions and the environmental factors that influence their relative importance and magnitude. More recently, several studies have indicated that “warm-phase invigoration”, the enhancement of convection through condensational heating, also appears to play a role in enhancing both shallow cumuli (Seiki and Nakajima 2014, Saleeby et al 2015) and deeper tropical convection (Lebo and Seinfeld 2011, Khain et al. 2012, Sheffield et al 2015, Fan et al. 2018, Igel and van den Heever 2021), as well as Houston thunderstorms (Fan et al. 2007, 2020). However, still other studies have provided additional evidence of systematic biases in simulated convective outflow ice size distribution properties, which are consistent with a lack of poorly understood secondary ice production within convective updrafts (e.g., Fridlind et al. 2017). To help address these critical gaps in our understanding of cloud processes, aerosol processes and aerosol-cloud interactions, the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment was designed building upon efforts by the Aerosol, Cloud, Precipitation and Climate (ACPC) Initiative (http://acpcintiative.org/), a joint effort of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) that focused on resolving uncertainties in the interactions between aerosol and clouds towards better understanding the role that these interactions play in the climate system. The TRACER campaign was motivated by recommendations from a number of pilot studies undertaken by ACPC (van den Heever et al. 2017, Fridlind et al. 2019, Hu et al. 2019, Fan et al. 2020, Marinescu et al. 2021, Hernandez-Deckers et al. 2022) that pointed towards the southeastern Texas region as a locale where aerosol-convection interactions could be studied owing to the copious occurrence of isolated convection during the summer months accompanied by diverse and significant sources of aerosols from both anthropogenic and natural sources. The TRACER campaign began on 01 October 2021 and extended through 30 September 2022 with an intensive operational period (IOP) during June-September 2022. Three main sites (Table 1) were managed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

LANL Meteorological Program Self-Assessment 2023 Update

The DOE Meteorological Coordinating Council (DMCC) conducted an initial LANL Meteorological (Met) Program Assist Visit in August 2006, and several observations and recommendations were shared with LANL management (DMCC 2006). In August 2015, a follow-up Met Program Assist Visit was conducted to determine progress in meeting all the observations and recommendations from the prior Assist Visit (DMCC 2015). During the 9 years between these two Assist Visits, DMCC noted that significant program improvements were made, and these were documented in the 2015 Assist Visit observations and recommendations. Based on current discussions with the Met Program, additional significant improvements have been made and will be discussed as part of this self-assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing Component-Specific Prior Distributions for Common Cause Failure Alpha Factors

This report presents the development of component-specific common cause failure (CCF) prior distributions for five component categories: pump, valve, strainer, generator, and other. For ease in comparing these component-specific CCF priors with the 2015 generic CCF priors, the same method used to develop the 2015 generic CCF priors was also employed in this report, along with the same set of failure data (1997–2015) featured in INL/EXT-21-43723. For selected CCF templates, this report also evaluates the effects of applying component-specific priors to CCF parameters.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Understory plant communities show resistance to drought, hurricanes, and experimental warming in a wet tropical forest

Global climate change has led to rising temperatures and to more frequent and intense climatic events, such as storms and droughts. Changes in climate and disturbance regimes can have non-additive effects on plant communities and result in complicated legacies we have yet to understand. This is especially true for tropical forests, which play a significant role in regulating global climate. We used understory vegetation data from the Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) in Puerto Rico to evaluate how plant communities responded to climate warming and disturbance. The TRACE understory vegetation was exposed to a severe drought (2015), 2 years of experimental warming (4°C above ambient in half of the plots, 2016–2017 and 2018–2019), and two major hurricanes (Irma and María, September 2017). Woody seedlings and saplings were censused yearly from 2015 to 2019, with an additional census in 2015 after the drought ended. We evaluated disturbance-driven changes in species richness, diversity, and composition across ontogeny. We then used Bayesian predictive trait modeling to assess how species responded to disturbance and how this might influence the functional structure of the plant community. Our results show decreased seedling richness after hurricane disturbance, as well as increased sapling richness and diversity after warming. We found a shift in species composition through time for both seedlings and saplings, yet the individual effects of each disturbance were not significant. At both ontogenetic stages, we observed about twice as many species responding to experimental warming as those responding to drought and hurricanes. Predicted changes in functional structure point to disturbance-driven functional shifts toward a mixture of fast-growing and drought-tolerant species. Our findings demonstrate that the tropical forest understory community is more resistant to climatic stressors than expected, especially at the sapling stage. However, early signs of changes in species composition suggest that, in a warming climate with frequent droughts and hurricanes, plant communities might shift over time toward fast-growing or drought-tolerant species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The pantropical response of soil moisture to El Niño

Abstract. The 2015–2016 El Niño event ranks as one of the most severe on record in terms of the magnitude and extent of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies generated in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Corresponding global impacts on the climate were expected to rival, or even surpass, those of the 1997–1998 severe El Niño event, which had SST anomalies that were similar in size. However, the 2015–2016 event failed to meet expectations for hydrologic change in many areas, including those expected to receive well above normal precipitation. To better understand how climate anomalies during an El Niño event impact soil moisture, we investigate changes in soil moisture in the humid tropics (between ±25∘) during the three most recent super El Niño events of 1982–1983, 1997–1998 and 2015–2016, using data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). First, we use in situ soil moisture observations obtained from 16 sites across five continents to validate and bias-correct estimates from GLDAS (r2=0.54). Next, we apply a k-means cluster analysis to the soil moisture estimates during the El Niño mature phase, resulting in four groups of clustered data. The strongest and most consistent decreases in soil moisture occur in the Amazon basin and maritime southeastern Asia, while the most consistent increases occur over eastern Africa. In addition, we compare changes in soil moisture to both precipitation and evapotranspiration, which showed a lack of agreement in the direction of change between these variables and soil moisture most prominently in the southern Amazon basin, the Sahel and mainland southeastern Asia. Our results can be used to improve estimates of spatiotemporal differences in El Niño impacts on soil moisture in tropical hydrology and ecosystem models at multiple scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗