Preliminary Proof of Concept for Community Use of Artificial Intelligence During Air Quality Incident Response
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Environmental sciences↗
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Advances in Desiccant Wheels for Dehumidification, VOC Mitigation, and CO 2 Removal for Energy-Efficient IAQ Management
Humidity control is pivotal to maintain occupant thermal comfort and suppress mold growth in indoor environments. Furthermore, poor indoor air quality (IAQ) due to the presence of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and high concentrations (>1,000 ppm) of CO 2 can cause health issues and negatively affect cognitive performance. Therefore, providing high-quality indoor air has gained significant attention over the past decade. Conventional cooling coil and filter-based HVAC systems have limited capability to meet the augmented demand for occupant thermal comfort and high indoor air quality. Moreover, modern buildings are increasingly airtight to save energy, and increasing ventilation to mitigate VOC and CO 2 concentration is discouraged. Separate sensible and latent cooling technology using a rotary desiccant wheel presents a promising solution in this respect. Because of the development of desiccant materials with high water vapor, VOC, and CO 2 uptake, desiccant wheels can be used as an integrated technology option for IAQ management. Here, to promote desiccant wheel use for energy-efficient management of IAQ in buildings, this article reviews recent advancements in using desiccant wheels for dehumidification, VOC mitigation, and CO 2 capture from outdoor air. Finally, the article presents the authors’ perspective by summarizing the key research gaps in the field and discussing the future direction of research to address these gaps from two different aspects, namely, suitable adsorbent material development and desiccant wheel design.
CO2 capture↗
Draft Environmental Impact Statement for Proposed Energy Conservation Standards for Manufactured Housing
This draft environmental impact statement (EIS) analyzes the impacts related to DOE’s proposed energy conservation standards for manufactured homes. DOE’s proposed energy conservation standards are based on the 2021 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) and relate to the building thermal envelope; air sealing; installation of insulation; duct sealing; heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC); service hot water systems; mechanical ventilation fan efficacy; and heating and cooling equipment sizing. The draft EIS evaluates DOE’s proposed action (energy conservation standards tiered based the manufacturers retail list price), alternatives to the proposed action (including energy conservation standards tiered based on size of the manufactured home and untiered standards), and a no action alternative. The draft EIS presents analysis of impacts related to (1) energy resources; (2) air resources (including greenhouse gases, climate change, ambient air quality and indoor air quality); (3) health and safety; (4) socioeconomics; and (5) environmental justice.
MacDonell, Margaret↗
Applying Deep Learning for Wildfire Identification: Economical and Accessible Solutions Leveraging Small Datasets
Wildfires significantly impact human health, air quality, visibility, weather, and climate change and cause substantial economic losses. While state and county-operated air quality monitors provide critical insights during wildfires, they are not available in all regions. This highlights the need for affordable, accessible tools that allow the general public to assess air quality impacts. In this study, we apply machine learning with deep neural networks to diagnose air quality rapidly from sky images taken at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, WA, USA. Using a convolutional neural network (CNN) framework, we trained a deep learning model to classify air quality indices based on sky images. By leveraging transfer learning, our approach fine-tunes a pre-trained model on a small dataset of sky images, significantly reducing training time while maintaining high accuracy. Our results demonstrate the potential of deep learning to provide rapid air quality diagnostics during wildfire episodes, offering early warnings to the public and enabling timely mitigation strategies, particularly for vulnerable populations. Additionally, we show that lower respiratory infections pose the highest health risk during acute smoke exposures. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) from wildfire particles further exacerbate health risks by triggering inflammation and other adverse effects.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Biofuel Air Emissions Analysis
U.S. has goals to produce 3 billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) annually by 2030, increasing to 35 billion gallons by 2050 to decarbonize the aviation sector. Meeting these production targets will require large number of biorefineries to be set up. However, ability to comply with federal air quality standards is prerequisite to being issued a construction permit. Negotiating the permitting process for a new biorefinery can be quite onerous and cost the investors significant time and money. Although there can be numerous reasons for delayed biorefinery construction, air permitting is fraught with pitfalls because the permitting process relies on precedence, which the future SAF biorefineries lack. NREL's Biofuel Air Emissions Analysis project is unique and innovative in terms of the tools, approaches, and analyses provided. NREL is the only national laboratory that is actively working at the intersection of Federal air quality regulations, emissions and air quality analysis across the supply chain, and process design. This project is focused on providing much needed data and analyses that address biorefinery air permitting. This project develops models and quantitative analyses and measures progress towards meeting air quality regulatory requirements. These models and methods are applied to analyze air permitting related to wastewater sludge to biofuel conversion pathways using hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL), impacts of HTL pathway on local and regional air quality including an assessment of health and equity impacts. In addition to filling research gaps, this project also disseminates the findings to the relevant stakeholders at BETO, other national labs, and regulatory agencies.
air quality↗
Investigation of HVAC operation strategies for office buildings during COVID-19 pandemic
To minimize the indoor transmission of contaminants, such as the virus that can lead to COVID-19, buildings must provide the best indoor air quality possible. Improving indoor air quality can be achieved through the building's HVAC system to decrease any concentration of indoor contaminants by dilution and/or by source removal. However, doing so has practical downsides on the HVAC operation that are not always quantified in the literature. This paper develops a temporal simulation capability that is used to investigate the indoor virus concentration and operational cost of an HVAC system for two mitigation strategies: (1) supplying 100% outdoor air into the building and (2) using different HVAC filters, including MERV 10, MERV 13, and HEPA filters. These strategies are applied to a hypothetical medium office building consisting of five occupied zones and located in a cold and dry climate. We modeled the building using the Modelica Buildings library and developed new models for HVAC filtration and virus transmission to evaluate COVID-19 scenarios. We show that the ASHRAE-recommended MERV 13 filtration reduces the average virus concentration by about 10% when compared to MERV 10 filtration, with an increase in site energy consumption of about 3%. In contrast, the use of 100% outdoor air reduces the average indoor concentration by about an additional 1% compared to MERV 13 filtration, but significantly increases heating energy consumption. Use of HEPA filtration increases the average indoor concentration and energy consumption compared to MERV 13 filtration due to the high resistance of the HEPA filter.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Role of climate goals and clean-air policies on reducing future air pollution deaths in China: a modelling study
Over 3 million people still die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor PM 2.5 air pollution, and more than a quarter of these premature deaths occur in China. In addition to clean air policies that target pollution emissions, climate policies aimed at reducing fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions (e.g., to avoid 1.5°C of warming) may also dramatically improve air quality and public health. Yet there has been no comprehensive accounting of public health outcomes under different energy pathways and local clean air management decisions in China. In particular, further research is needed to understand the relationships among climate and clean air polices and future health burdens in China, where an aging population will further exacerbate the impacts of air pollution. Using a China-focused integrated assessment model (GCAM-China) and a dynamic emission projection model (DPEC), we project future Chinese air quality in scenarios spanning a range of global climate targets (i.e. 1.5°0C, 2°C, NDC, unambitious, baseline, and 4.5°C) as well as national clean air actions (i.e. 2015-pollution, current-pollution, and ambitious-pollution). We then evaluate the health impacts of PM2·5 air pollution of scenario matrix using the chemical transport model WRF-CMAQ and the latest epidemiological concentration–response (C-R) functions (i.e. GBD2019). We find that, without ambitious climate mitigation (e.g., under current NDC pledges), Chinese deaths related the PM2.5 air pollution do not substantially decrease—and often grow—by mid-century, regardless of clean air policies and air quality improvements. For example, in scenarios that track China’s current NDC pledge and deploy best-available pollution control technologies, PM 2.5 -related deaths in China decrease slightly by 2030 (to 1.2 million per year) but no further by mid-century (Ambitious-pollution-NDC-goals; 1.2 million deaths in 2050) despite substantial and continuous improvements in population-weighted air quality (27.2 to 16.0 µg/m 3 from 2030 to 2050). The contrary trends of improving air quality and increasing PM 2·5 -related deaths in many of our scenarios reveals the extent to which extra efforts are needed to compensate for the established fact of increasing age of China’s population in future. Substantial decreases in China’s PM 2.5 -related deaths and age-standardized death rates (e.g., decreasing by 0.3–0.5 million deaths and 10.2–14.2 per 100,000 population age-standardized death rates per year) thus require the sort of large-scale transition in energy sources entailed by scenarios that meet international climate goals to avoid 1.5°C and 2°C of warming (Ambitious-pollution-2°C- and 1.5°C-goals).
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
A microgrid deployment framework to support drayage electrification
The electrification of heavy-duty commercial vehicles (HDCVs) is key to enhancing air quality and reducing urban air pollution, but it also imposes significant demands on an electric grid not designed for such high loads. Without complementary infrastructure, electrification may yield limited air quality improvements. This article explores the critical role of microgrids—integrating solar photovoltaics and battery storage—in supporting HDCV electrification. We present an integrated framework to identify viable microgrid sites in a given region, estimate deployment costs, and optimize power use to reduce dependence on the grid. As a case study, we apply the framework to the region around the Port of Savannah, GA, USA, demonstrating how targeted microgrid deployment can enhance grid capacity, improve energy resiliency, and support electrified freight transport.
Electrical engineering↗
Health and air pollutant emission impacts of net zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios from the energy modeling forum 37 study
Carbon dioxide and non-greenhouse gas air pollutants are emitted from many of the same sources. Decarbonization actions thus typically yield air pollutant emission reductions, resulting in significant air quality benefits. Although several studies have highlighted this connection, including in the context of net zero carbon emission targets, substantial uncertainty remains regarding how alternative technological pathways to this goal will affect the spatial distribution and magnitude of air pollutants. Comprehensive multi-model and multi-scenario analyzes are needed to explore the relative impacts of alternative pathways. Here, our study begins to address this gap by leveraging the results from the recent Energy Modeling Forum 37 inter-model comparison exercise on U.S. decarbonization pathways. Comparing the results of the six teams who submitted air pollutant emissions suggests that strategies that target net zero U.S. carbon emissions would yield significant reductions in many air pollutants, and that this finding is generally robust across pathways. However, some energy sources, such as biomass and fossil fuels with carbon capture, will emit air pollutants and can potentially influence the magnitude, spatial distribution, and even sign of localized air pollutant emission changes. In the second part of this analysis, a simplified air quality and health impacts screening model is used to evaluate the air quality impacts in 2035 of sectoral emission changes from the three models that provided sectoral detail. Relative to a reference scenario, a net zero pathway is estimated to reduce fine particulate matter concentrations across the contiguous U.S., with health benefits from reduced mortality ranging from $\$$65 billion to $\$$250 billion in 2035 alone (2023$\$$s). These benefits would be expected to grow over time as the net zero trajectory becomes more stringent. Both the magnitude of potential benefits and the substantial variation of the projections across models underscore the need for an EMF-like inter-model comparison exercise focused on air quality.
Air pollutants↗
Wildfire Smoke Adjustment Factors for Low-Cost and Professional PM 2.5 Monitors with Optical Sensors
Air quality monitors using low-cost optical PM 2.5 sensors can track the dispersion of wildfire smoke; but quantitative hazard assessment requires a smoke-specific adjustment factor (AF). This study determined AFs for three professional-grade devices and four monitors with low-cost sensors based on measurements inside a well-ventilated lab impacted by the 2018 Camp Fire in California (USA). Using the Thermo TEOM-FDMS as reference, AFs of professional monitors were 0.85 for Grimm mini wide-range aerosol spectrometer, 0.25 for TSI DustTrak, and 0.53 for Thermo pDR1500; AFs for low-cost monitors were 0.59 for AirVisual Pro, 0.48 for PurpleAir Indoor, 0.46 for Air Quality Egg, and 0.60 for eLichens Indoor Air Quality Pro Station. We also compared public data from 53 PurpleAir PA-II monitors to 12 nearby regulatory monitoring stations impacted by Camp Fire smoke and devices near stations impacted by the Carr and Mendocino Complex Fires in California and the Pole Creek Fire in Utah. Camp Fire AFs varied by day and location, with median (interquartile) of 0.48 (0.44–0.53). Adjusted PA-II 4-h average data were generally within ±20% of PM 2.5 reported by the monitoring stations. Adjustment improved the accuracy of Air Quality Index (AQI) hazard level reporting, e.g., from 14% to 84% correct in Sacramento during the Camp Fire.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
A Multi-Analysis Approach for Estimating Regional Health Impacts from the 2017 Northern California Wildfires
In the evening of October 8 and early hours of October 9, 2017, high winds in Northern California downed trees and power lines, igniting some of the most devastating wildfires the state had seen, and within hours unhealthy air quality impacted millions of people. We simulated these air quality conditions using fire detection information from the MODIS, VIIRS, and GOES-16 ABI satellite instruments, and applying a set of three WRF–CMAQ simulations, one data fusion, and three machine learning methods. We investigated using the 5-min available GOES-16 fire detection data to simulate timing of fire activity to allocate emissions hourly for the WRF-CMAQ air quality modeling system. Interestingly, this approach did not necessarily improve results compared to the baseline case, which used a default time profile. However, this approach was key to simulating the initial 12-hr explosive fire activity and smoke impacts. The WRF-CMAQ simulations compared well with observational data for the October 8-15 time period and tended to overestimate concentrations October 16-20. To improve these results, we applied three machine learning algorithms. We also had a unique opportunity to evaluate results with temporary monitors deployed specifically for wildfires, and performance was markedly different. For example, at the permanent monitoring locations, the WRF-CMAQ simulations had a Pearson correlation of 0.65, and the data fusion approach improved this (Pearson correlation = 0.95), while at the temporary monitor locations across the WRF-CMAQ, data fusion, and machine learning datasets, the best Pearson correlation was 0.5. The data fusion and machine learning results were biased low and WRF-CMAQ results were biased high. Finally, we applied the optimized PM2.5 exposure estimate in a short-term exposure-response function. Total estimated mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure during the smoke episode was 83 (95% confidence interval: 0, 196) with 47% of these deaths attributable to wildland fire smoke.
O'Neill, Susan↗
Research, Development and Demonstration of Advanced Vehicle Technologies in Clean Motor Fuels (CRADA Final Report)
NREL/DOE has been funding research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) projects to facilitate the deployment of alternative fuels into the marketplace in order to achieve three objectives: 1) enhance the reduction of mobile source emissions in California and the U.S.; 2) increase U.S. competitiveness and economic prosperity; and 3) preserve the environment through the reduction of emissions and toxins from the motor vehicle population. The Lewis-Presley Air Quality Management Act requires the South Coast Air Quality Management District to establish a program to encourage participation in projects to increase the utilization of clean-burning fuels. The parties seek to collaborate on a joint RD&D project to perform a field test on a small vehicle fleet operating on Fischer-Tropsch synthetic diesel fuel. Recently the 106th U.S. Congress designated "gas-to-liquid" (GTL) transportation fuels that are produced from domestic products as alternative fuels under the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPACT). Niche markets could develop quickly for these fuel products, perhaps especially for the use of Fischer-Tropsch synthetic fuels in centrally fueled vehicle fleets in California. NREL and its project partners from the U.S. Department of Energy and West Virginia University have recently conducted what we believe to be the first-ever controlled tests of Fischer-Tropsch synthetic fuels in heavy vehicles. These tests have shown that Fischer-Tropsch fuels can be substituted in unmodified trucks and buses without any detectable loss in drivability and performance. Compared to a California diesel fuel baseline, neat Shell Fischer-Tropsch fuel emitted about 12% lower NOx and 24% lower particulate matter over a five-mile driving route while maintaining the same fuel economy on an energy equivalent basis. Whereas these exhaust emissions reductions from these previous studies have been impressive, far greater exhaust emissions reductions can be achieved if the vehicles are retrofitted with emissions control technologies that are enabled by Fischer-Tropsch fuels. For this program, a test fleet would be selected and retrofitted with continuously regenerating traps (CRT’s) or diesel particulate filters (DPF's). The University of West Virginia, under a separate subcontract to SCAQMD will have the responsibility to test and measure the emissions from the test fleet of vehicles.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
Comparing the interactions between particulate matter and cloud properties over two populated cities in Texas using WRF-Chem fine-resolution modeling
Accurate modeling of aerosol-cloud interactions is essential for reliable weather and air quality simulations, given their significant impact on precipitation patterns, cloud dynamics, and aerosol distributions. This study employed the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to examine the impact of enhanced meteorological simulations, achieved through advanced microphysics parameterization supported by data assimilation techniques, on air quality across Texas on August 19 and 20, 2022. We tested four distinct configurations: (1) the Morrison two-moment bulk microphysics scheme, (2) Morrison's with observation nudging, (3) the Spectral Bin Microphysics (SBM), and (4) SBM with observation nudging. While the SBM scheme is known for its detailed representation of aerosol-cloud interactions, our focus was on how improvements in meteorological accuracy translate to more precise air quality simulations. Our findings demonstrated a progressive improvement in simulation accuracy, starting with the Morrison's scheme and further enhanced by adopting the SBM scheme, complemented by incorporating observation nudging. Specifically, the combination of the SBM scheme and the nudging substantially enhanced the model's ability to capture convective precipitation events, as shown by better alignment with NEXRAD radar reflectivity, with R increasing from –0.21 to 0.82, IOA from 0.10 to 0.87, and NMB decreasing from 99% to 34% in Houston. The enhanced meteorology translated into more accurate PM 2.5 concentration simulations, particularly through the more accurate representation of aerosol washout during precipitation events. In Houston, the SBM scheme with nudging improved the model's PM 2.5 simulations significantly, with NMB decreasing from –20% to 5% and IOA improving from 0.43 to 0.61. In San Antonio, improvements were also notable, with NMB improved from –27% to –22%, R increased from 0.48 to 0.82, and IOA increased from 0.66 to 0.86. Furthermore, our results underscore the crucial role of accurate meteorological simulations in refining our understanding of aerosol behaviors in relation to precipitation patterns, directly enhancing the reliability and effectiveness of air quality modeling.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Evaluation and calibration of MERRA-2 and CAMS reanalysis for PM 2.5 in a semi-urbanized area in the south of the Amazon
Air pollution has significant implications for the climate and poses irreversible risks to human health. The Amazon region of Brazil is severely affected by biomass burning (BB) emissions, yet air quality monitoring remains highly inadequate. Given the scarcity of surface-based observations, reanalysis models have become essential tools for assessing air pollution. Although MERRA-2 and CAMS PM 2.5 products are widely utilized, their validation and comprehensive evaluation for the Amazon Basin remain limited. Here, this study assesses the performance of these products in a semi-urbanized region in the southern Amazon. The calibrated time series was employed to analyze PM 2.5 concentrations from 2003 to 2023. Our results showed satisfactory performance of both products for the 24-h averages of PM 2.5 , with linear correlations above 0.76. However, it was found that both products overestimate surface concentrations. MERRA-2 performed better, with approximately 30% lower bias than CAMS. Time series analysis showed that the study area is strongly impacted by emissions BB in the dry period, mainly in August and September. Furthermore, our findings indicate a positive trend in increasing PM 2.5 concentrations, with a notable rise observed since 2014. The average PM 2.5 levels frequently exceed the daily air quality guidelines established by the WHO in 2021. It has been estimated that the population of this region is exposed to concentrations above 15 μg.m -3 , on average, more than 30 days per year. Our results contribute to the evaluation of MERRA-2 and CAMS products for Amazon and provide a corrected estimate for surface PM 2.5 . Recent concerns about air quality and the implementation of new surface monitoring networks may improve the evaluation of reanalysis products. In the short term, the need for this information makes our assessments indispensable.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Understanding and improving model representation of aerosol optical properties for a Chinese haze event measured during KORUS-AQ
KORUS-AQ was an international cooperative air quality field study in South Korea that measured local and remote sources of air pollution affecting the Korean Peninsula during May–June 2016. Some of the largest aerosol mass concentrations were measured during a Chinese haze transport event (24 May). Air quality forecasts using the WRF-Chem model with aerosol optical depth (AOD) data assimilation captured AOD during this pollution episode but overpredicted surface particulate matter concentrations in South Korea, especially PM 2.5 , often by a factor of 2 or larger. Analysis revealed multiple sources of model deficiency related to the calculation of optical properties from aerosol mass that explain these discrepancies. Using in situ observations of aerosol size and composition as inputs to the optical properties calculations showed that using a low-resolution size bin representation (four bins) underestimates the efficiency with which aerosols scatter and absorb light (mass extinction efficiency). Besides using finer-resolution size bins (8–16 bins), it was also necessary to increase the refractive indices and hygroscopicity of select aerosol species within the range of values reported in the literature to achieve better consistency with measured values of the mass extinction efficiency (6.7 m 2 g –1 observed average) and light-scattering enhancement factor (ƒ(RH)) due to aerosol hygroscopic growth (2.2 observed average). Furthermore, an evaluation of the optical properties obtained using modeled aerosol properties revealed the inability of sectional and modal aerosol representations in WRF-Chem to properly reproduce the observed size distribution, with the models displaying a much wider accumulation mode. Other model deficiencies included an underestimate of organic aerosol density (1.0 g cm –3 in the model vs. observed average of 1.5 g cm –3 ) and an overprediction of the fractional contribution of submicron inorganic aerosols other than sulfate, ammonium, nitrate, chloride, and sodium corresponding to mostly dust (17 %–28 % modeled vs. 12 % estimated from observations). These results illustrate the complexity of achieving an accurate model representation of optical properties and provide potential solutions that are relevant to multiple disciplines and applications such as air quality forecasts, health impact assessments, climate projections, solar power forecasts, and aerosol data assimilation.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Guia de Edificios Saludables para Pequenas Empresas: Una Referencia Rapida para Mejorar la Calidad del Aire Interior (Restaurantes Excluidos)
Indoor air pollutant concentrations can be higher than those outdoors, putting occupants at risk. These pollutants come from a variety of sources: materials used to build and furnish indoor spaces, retail products and services, and occupants themselves. Ventilation, temperature, and humidity also affect indoor air quality. It is important to consider the documented benefits of healthy indoor environments at any time - not just during a public health crisis - and it is key to consider the indoor air quality where we do business as well as at home. Small businesses vary in size, services, products, ownership style, and building mechanical systems, yet all benefit from healthy indoor spaces for employees and customers. This guide provides steps, in conjunction with public health guidance, that small businesses can take to improve and maintain indoor air quality. Small businesses often have unique ownership structures - the building owner and business owner can be different parties - so this guide addresses both building and business owner action items. There are many ways to pursue healthy indoor air, including eliminating, minimizing, and/or controlling the contaminants we bring in, and removing or diluting any existing contaminants through ventilation, filtration, air cleaning, and/or disinfection. Best results are achieved through a comprehensive approach combining various strategies, including those discussed in this guide.
air filtration↗
Air Pollutant Emissions and Regulatory Implications of Co-Processing Raw Bio-Oil in U.S. Petroleum Refineries
Pyrolysis oil, often referred as bio-oil or biocrude, has attracted considerable attention because it has higher energy density and carbon content compared to the raw biomass. Using pyrolysis oil derived from low cost and underutilized biomass to produce renewable hydrocarbon fuels provides a viable link between the agriculture/forestry and (petro-) chemical industry. Co-processing bio-oil with vacuum gas oil (VGO) in petroleum refinery is appealing due to the relatively low capital requirement to retrofit refinery and the compatibility of fuel products with existing infrastructure. In order to implement co-processing, a petroleum refinery would need to consider several process modifications and therefore could be subject to varying levels of air permitting requirements based on bio-oil co-processing ratio, co-processing capacity in existing units, the amount of regulated pollutants expected to be emitted, among other factors. This analysis considers co-processing 5% (by weight) of raw bio-oil with VGO in the fluidized catalytic cracking (FCC) unit(s) in a petroleum refinery. We estimate the potential increase in emissions of regulated air pollutants resulting from the modifications required to implement bio-oil co-processing and evaluate the regulatory and permitting implications for three FCC size categories in the U.S. refineries, which could co-processes raw bio-oil to produce partially renewable transportation fuels. We also assess technically feasible emission control options petroleum refineries could adopt to avoid being subject to major source permitting requirements if the estimated increase in regulated air pollutant emission exceeds the applicable threshold for major modifications. Insights from our analysis can help overcome challenges and risks associated with timely obtaining air permits required to implement bio-oil co-processing in existing refineries. Our analysis also provides needed information for decision makers (e.g., local air quality agencies) to understand the potential air quality implications for retrofitting refineries to co-process bio-oil, particularly in areas with high concentration of petroleum refineries.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Role of emission controls in reducing the 2050 climate change penalty for PM2.5 in China
Previous studies demonstrated that global warming can lead to deteriorated air quality even when anthropogenic emissions were kept constant, which has been called a climate change penalty on air quality. It is expected that anthropogenic emissions will decrease significantly in the future considering the aggressive emission control actions in China. However, the dependence of climate change penalty on the choice of emission scenario is still uncertain. To fill this gap, we conducted multiple independent model simulations to investigate the response of PM2.5 to future (2050) climate warming (RCP8.5) in China but with different emission scenarios, including the constant 2015 emissions, the 2050 CLE emissions (based on Current Legislation), and the 2050 MTFR emissions (based on Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction). For each set of emissions, we estimate climate change penalty as the difference in PM2.5 between a pair of simulations with either 2015 or 2050 meteorology. Under 2015 emissions, we find a PM2.5 climate change penalty of 1.43 µg m-3 in Eastern China, leading to an additional 35,000 PM2.5-related premature deaths [95% confidence interval (CI), 21,000-40,000] by 2050. However, the PM2.5 climate change penalty weakens to 0.24 µg m-3 with strict anthropogenic emission controls under the 2050 MTFR emissions, which decreases the associated PM2.5-related deaths to 17,000. The smaller MTFR climate change penalty contributes 14% of the total PM2.5 decrease when both emissions and meteorology are changed from 2015 to 2050, and 24% of total health benefits associated with this PM2.5 decrease in Eastern China. This finding suggests that controlling anthropogenic emissions can effectively reduce the climate change penalty on PM2.5 and its associated premature deaths, even though a climate change penalty still occurs even under MTFR. Strengthened controls on anthropogenic emissions is key to attaining air quality targets and protecting human health in the context of future global climate change.
Liu, Song↗