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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Overview of SAND-E: Semi-Autonomous Navigation for Detrital Environments

Rovers are the state of the art for the exploration and detection of past habitability and life on other worlds. One of the most basic functions of a rover is terrain navigation. Information collected by the rover is used autonomously to mitigate terrain hazards such large rocks, while humans qualitatively assess hazardous geologic terrain such as soil type and degree of rock cover. Planetary scientists use the same information to select targets such as drill sites, and for basic scientific analysis such as characterization of rock outcrops. Although the data is complementary, data from terrain analysis for navigation and terrain analysis for scientific investigations are poorly integrated. The lack of integration creates science and operation inefficiencies that limit exploration of habitable environments. As new modes of exploration come online, such as unmanned aerial systems (UAS) (e.g., the Mars Helicopter Scout and Titan Dragonfly), a need exists to integrate terrain data and science analysis to improve operational and scientific outcomes during exploration. We present an overview of a project aimed at evaluating the effectiveness and capability rover and UAS-based semi-automated terrain analysis using the Automated Soil Assessment Systems (ASAS) developed by Mission Control Space Services for navigating, selecting targets for sampling, and characterizing mafic detrital sediments along glacio-fluvial-aeolian sand transport pathways in Iceland. We describe recent advances in automated terrain analysis in sandy environments and scientific uses of terrain assessment from sandy environments. We assess fluvial and aeolian terrains in Iceland and show how terrain analysis data can inform scientific characterization of these environments.

Ewing, Ryan C.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Functional Fault Model Development Process to Support Design Analysis and Operational Assessment

A functional fault model (FFM) is an abstract representation of the failure space of a givensystem. As such, it simulates the propagation of failure effects along paths between the origin ofthe system failure modes and points within the system capable of observing the failure effects. Asa result, FFMs may be used to diagnose the presence of failures in the modeled system. FFMsnecessarily contain a significant amount of information about the design, operations, and failuremodes and effects. One of the important benefits of FFMs is that they may be qualitative, ratherthan quantitative and, as a result, may be implemented early in the design process when there ismore potential to positively impact the system design. FFMs may therefore be developed andmatured throughout the monitored system's design process and may subsequently be used toprovide real-time diagnostic assessments that support system operations. This paper provides anoverview of a generalized NASA process that is being used to develop and apply FFMs. FFMtechnology has been evolving for more than 25 years. The FFM development process presented inthis paper was refined during NASA's Ares I, Space Launch System, and Ground SystemsDevelopment and Operations programs (i.e., from about 2007 to the present). Process refinementtook place as new modeling, analysis, and verification tools were created to enhance FFMcapabilities. In this paper, standard elements of a model development process (i.e., knowledgeacquisition, conceptual design, implementation & verification, and application) are describedwithin the context of FFMs. Further, newer tools and analytical capabilities that may benefit thebroader systems engineering process are identified and briefly described. The discussion isintended as a high-level guide for future FFM modelers.

Melcher, Kevin J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Emerging Technologies for Airplane State Awareness and Prediction

Loss of control in flight (LOC-I) is consistently the leading cause of fatal aircraft accidents. A study of LOC accidents and incidents, commissioned by the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) identified a growing trend in loss of Airplane State Awareness (ASA) by the flight crew. This has led to recommended safety enhancements that include flight deck technologies with the potential of enhancing flight crew awareness of airplane energy state. The goal of this research is to develop and evaluate technologies that predict and assess the future aircraft energy state and auto-flight configuration, and provide appropriate alerting to anticipated problematic auto-flight inputs, with the aim of enhancing pilots situational awareness.

Aircraft Safety↗
NASA NTRS2017

CAST Safety Enhancement Research on Airplane State Awareness and Prediction Technologies

Loss of control in flight (LOC-I) is the leading cause of fatal aircraft accidents. A study of LOC accidents and incidents, commissioned by the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) identified a growing trend in loss of Airplane State Awareness (ASA) by the flight crew. This has led to recommended safety enhancements that include flight deck technologies for improving current and predicted energy state awareness. In this talk, we discuss recent CAST motivated efforts to develop new information systems for predicting and assessing the future aircraft energy state and auto-flight configuration. The outputs from these systems can serve multiple purposes, including improved pilot alerting for anticipating and recovering from problematic flight conditions, as well as higher level flight safety assurance for autonomous operations.

Schuet, Stefan↗
NASA NTRS2019

Future of Flight: Flying Cars to X-Planes

ASA & Ames Introduction: Overview of NASA and Ames Research Activities, with a special focus on NASA Aeronautics activities. All materials are overview in nature and have been presented previously in open forums.

Future of Flight↗
NASA NTRS2020

Overview and Initial Results of SAND-E: Semi-Autonomous Navigation for Detrital Environments

Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and automated terrain analysis for science and navigation are new technologies for planetary exploration. The Mars Helicopter will fly with the Mars2020 rover, the Dragonfly quadcopter will explore Titan, and Soil Properties and Object Classification (SPOC) software will be used for path planning and navigation on the Mars2020 rover. Using an Argo J5 rover instrumented with stereo cameras and Autonomous Soil Assessment System (ASAS) software, and an off the shelf quadcopter, SAND-E tested the use of automated terrain analysis and UAS data for science operations in a Mars-analog environment in Iceland during July of 2019. Scientifically, we sought to determine changes in the physical and chemical properties of sediments along a glacial-fluvial-aeolian transport pathway. Operationally, we tested rover mission-like scenarios that included UAS images and classified terrain images. Here, we present the initial results for both the operations and science elements of the study. Site Selection: A goal of SAND-E is examine sorting and alteration of sediments in fluvial and aeolian environments in both mineral-dominated and glass-dominated basaltic settings. During the first year of the project we focused on a mineral-dominated environment. Selection of the location was based on prior publications that indicated our selected region had a greater abundance of crystalline sediments than other areas fluvial-aeolian settings in Iceland. Other criteria included the presence of both fluvial and aeolian landforms along a transport pathway such that the sediments in transport could be linked to their source rocks. We chose the Skjaldbreidauhraun glacial outwash plain, which sits at the base of Thórisjökull glacier. The site is 30 km north of Thingvellir National Park and ~2 hours from Reykjavik. The outwash plain is fed by two small catchments that drain from the base of the glacier and cut through hyaloclastite and shield volcano bedrock. The drainage progresses from steep alluvial fans near the glacier into a low-sloping fluvial braidplain that becomes confined by the Skjaldbreidur shield volcano and creates a shallow canyon cut into lava bedrock. The fluvial system was a typical braided alluvial environment composed pebble- and cobble-bedded longitudinal bars and sandy channel beds. The river remained active and fluctuated in response to diurnal runoff cycles near the glacier before disappearing into the sandy substrate downstream. The high concentration of suspended sediment in the river was evident by the cloudy water and the silt and clay-sized sediments that draped the channel beds after abandonment and created playas in the lowest sloping areas of the catchment. The entire fluvial system was affected by the winds generated by frontal systems and katabatic flows descending the glacier. This resulted in the formation of aeolian lag deposits and a wind-deflation plain where the fluvial system was not active. Wind ripples and drifts formed in abandoned fluvial channels from aeolian reworking of the sand-sized fluvial sediments. The silt- and clay-sized sediments found in fluvial channels, bar tops, and playas generated dust plumes during high wind events. Our operation sought to capture the variability in this system by sampling from the range of fluvial and aeolian features 6.3 km (proximal), 11.3 km (medial), and 14.4 km (distal) along the river from its origin at the base of glacier.

Ewing, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation of Low Cost, User-Centered Alerting Devices for the Mitigation of Flight Crew Spatial Disorientation

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is conducting research into technologies which have the potential to reduce flight crew Spatial Disorientation (SD). While flight deck technology has advanced rapidly over the past fifty (50) years, the reported occurrences of flight crew SD have not decreased. The Cost-Effective Devices for Alerting Research (CEDAR) effort has focused on the identification and development of low cost, user-centered alerting solutions for the purpose of mitigating the occurrence of flight crew SD. This effort seeks to evaluate both existing technologies as well as new and emerging technologies which have a viable path to implementation in commercial aviation within the next five (5) years. This research is intended to develop a proof-of-concept for real-time SD mitigation which could eventually be utilized to improve safety in future air transport operations. NASA has partnered with the United States Naval Aeromedical Research Unit in Dayton, OH (NAMRU-D) to conduct flight crew SD research utilizing their Disorientation Research Device (DRD), dubbed “The Kraken”. This high-tech simulator features never-before-seen capabilities for side-by-side commercial aviation flight crew SD research, and is capable of re-creating the forces necessary to induce SD illusions in a safe and repeatable manner. Prototype SD mitigation solutions were incorporated into this simulator for scenario-based testing and evaluation using airline pilots within a contextually representative operational environment. SD mitigation technology prototypes designed to provide haptic feedback for both alerting and guidance, as well as innovative visual and aural alerting displays were evaluated. In December 2014, as a result of analyzing eighteen (18) loss-of-control events, the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) recommended research into flight deck technologies that have potential to mitigate the problems and contributing factors that lead to flight crew loss of airplane state awareness (ASA) and conditions likely to produce SD. The aviation community (government, industry and academia) have been charged with conducting research into cost-effective, user-centered flight deck alerting systems to alert flight crews; especially for the two conditions that produced SD (sub-threshold rolls and the somatogravic illusion). Somatogravic illusions are defined as illusions in which “there is a false perception of attitude on exposure to a force vector that differs in direction and/or magnitude from the normal gravitational force”. The sub-threshold roll illusion (aka the “leans” illusion) is a false sensation of roll attitude. A prolonged roll of less than two degrees becomes physiologically imperceptible to the pilot, and can lead to an incorrect perception of aircraft orientation. The sub-threshold roll illusion forms the entry point for the “graveyard spiral”, a maneuver in which the pilot’s corrective action (based on their false perception of aircraft orientation) causes the aircraft to spiral down into the ground. In both of these SD illusions, it is when the pilot attempts to correct the aircraft’s attitude (based on a false perception of its state) that problems arise, sometimes with lethal consequences.

Ronald J Daiker↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of thermostable carbonic anhydrases using structure-guided recombination for use in CO2 removal systems on spacecraft

Carbon capture and storage has been a research area of great interest in recent years asa method for mitigation of CO2emissions, due to the effects of climate change. The development of technologies for the efficient capture of CO2are also of great interest for human spaceflight applications. One of the most promising technologies in this area is CO2 scrubbing using liquid amines, unfortunately, liquid amines with low heats of desorption tend to have slow CO2binding kinetics. One potential solution to this problem is to use the enzyme carbonic anhydrase (CA) to enhance the kinetics of CO2binding to liquid amines, allowing the overall process to be more energy efficient. Interest in using carbonic anhydrase as a biocatalyst has led to a number of efforts to improve the thermostability and solvent tolerance of several distinct carbonic anhydrase enzymes. In the work described here, we screened through a diverse set of natural carbonic anhydrases to identify candidates for protein engineering aimed at increased stability and activity in various liquid amines. We then used SCHEMA structure-guided recombination to develop a set of chimeric carbonic anhydrases with high thermostability and activity. These chimeras were used as the starting points for further protein engineering work targeting activity in liquid amine systems. Our ultimate goal is to test the engineered enzymes in a liquid amine system for cabin air revitalization on ISS or other spacecraft.

Life Support↗
NASA NTRS2020

Global Environmental Impact of Supersonic Cruise Aircraft in the Stratosphere

We analyze the climate and ozone impacts of commercial supersonic aircraft using state-of-the-science modeling capabilities ranging from plume to global scale. A scenario-based approach captures variability and uncertainty in the impacts with market adoption, aircraft design choices and regulatory scenarios, focusing on different overland flight restrictions. We find that the notional aircraft considered could attract a market of up to 2.5% of year-2035 seat-kilometers. Overland flight restrictions reduce this market by 80–100%. In comparison to subsonic aircraft, contrails are found to be∼10 times less likely to form behind supersonic jets. A Mach 1.6 jet cruising at 17 km altitude causes 0.85 mDU of depletion per billion seat-km, with 54% of this impact attributable to sulfur emissions and 35% to NOx emissions. Asa result, we find a net non-CO2, non-contrail radiative forcing of−0.020 mW m−2per billion seat-km. Long-term adjoint simulations show that net ozone-neutral cruise can be achieved by flying near 14 km, subject to fuel sulfur content and NOx emissions index.

supersonic, Stratosphere, environment↗
NASA NTRS2019

A New Class of Changing-look LINERs

We report the discovery of six active galactic nuclei (AGNs) caught "turning on" during the first nine months of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) survey. The host galaxies were classified as low-ionization nuclear emission-line region galaxies (LINERs) by weak narrow forbidden line emission in their archival SDSS spectra, and detected by ZTF as nuclear transients. In five of the cases, we found via follow-up spectroscopy that they had transformed into broad-line AGNs, reminiscent of the changing-look LINER iPTF16bco. In one case, ZTF18aajupnt/AT2018dyk, follow-up Hubble Space Telescope ultraviolet and ground-based optical spectra revealed the transformation into a narrow-line Seyfert 1 with strong [Fe vii, x, xiv] and He ii λ 4686 coronal lines. Swift monitoring observations of this source reveal bright UV emission that tracks the optical flare, accompanied by a luminous soft X-ray flare that peaks ~60 days later. Spitzer follow-up observations also detect a luminous mid-infrared flare, implying a large covering fraction of dust. Archival light curves of the entire sample from CRTS, ATLAS, and ASAS-SN constrain the onset of the optical nuclear flaring from a prolonged quiescent state. Here we present the systematic selection and follow-up of this new class of changing-look LINERs, compare their properties to previously reported changing-look Seyfert galaxies, and conclude that they are a unique class of transients well-suited to test the uncertain physical processes associated with the LINER accretion state.

Sara Frederick↗
NASA NTRS2021

TIC 168789840: A Sextuply Eclipsing Sextuple Star System

We report the discovery of a sextuply eclipsing sextuple star system from TESS data, TIC 168789840, also known as TYC 7037-89-1, the first known sextuple system consisting of three eclipsing binaries. The target was observed in Sectors 4 and 5 during Cycle 1, with light curves extracted from TESS Full Frame Image data. It was also previously observed by the WASP survey and ASAS-SN. The system consists of three gravitationally bound eclipsing binaries in a hierarchical structure of an inner quadruple system with an outer binary subsystem. Follow up observations from several different observatories were conducted as a means of determining additional parameters. The system was resolved by speckle interferometry with a 0 42 separation between the inner quadruple and outer binary, inferring an estimated outer period of ∼2 kyr. It was determined that the fainter of the two resolved components is an 8.217 day eclipsing binary, which orbits the inner quadruple that contains two eclipsing binaries with periods of 1.570 days and 1.306 days. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis of the stellar parameters has shown that the three binaries of TIC 168789840 are “triplets,” as each binary is quite similar to the others in terms of mass, radius, and Teff. As a consequence of its rare composition, structure, and orientation, this object can provide important new insight into the formation, dynamics, and evolution of multiple star systems. Future observations could reveal if the intermediate and outer orbital planes are all aligned with the planes of the three inner eclipsing binaries.

Brian P. Powell↗
NASA NTRS2021

3D Simulations of the Early Martian Hydrological Cycle Mediated by a H2-CO2 Greenhouse

For decades, the scientific community has been trying to reconcile abundant evidence for fluvialactivity on Noachian and early Hesperian Mars with the faint young Sun and reasonableconstraints on ancient atmospheric pressure and composition. Recently, the investigation of H2-CO2 collision-induced absorption has opened up a new avenue to warm Noachian Mars. We usethe ROCKE-3D global climate model to simulate plausible states of the ancient Martian climatewith this absorptive warming and reasonable constraints on surface paleopressure. We find that1.5-2 bar CO2-dominated atmospheres with ≥3% H2 can produce global mean surfacetemperatures above freezing, while also providing sufficient warming to avoid surfaceatmospheric CO2 condensation at 0°-45° obliquity. Simulations conducted with both moderntopography and a paleotopography, before Tharsis formed, highlight the importance of Tharsis asa cold trap for water on the planet. Additionally, we find that low obliquity (modern and 0°) ismore conducive to rainfall over valley network locations than high (45°) obliquity. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY Much evidence tells us that ancient Mars had liquid water on its surface. But reconciling thatwith the fainter young Sun and reasonable constraints on Mars' early atmosphere is challenging.We use a 3D global climate model with an atmosphere containing some amount of hydrogen (apossible greenhouse gas) to study Mars' early hydrological cycle and compare it to the geologicalevidence of surface liquid water billions of years ago. We find that hydrogen and carbon dioxidetogether in an atmosphere twice as thick as modern Earth can warm early Mars above thefreezing point of water and that a low axial tilt produces rainfall patterns that best match thegeologic evidence

Scott D Guzewich↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Technical Committee on Noise: Researchers and Practitioners

The Technical Committee on Noise (TCNS) includes researchers and industry practitioners interested in understanding noise generation from a variety of sources, its propagation, and its impact on structures, objects, and people. The goal of reducing the impact of this noise, i.e. unwanted sound, has led to innovative model development, measurement techniques, mitigation strategies, and input towards the establishment of regulations. Community noise definition and abatement is of particular interest and motivates the advancement of research on a variety of topics, such as transportation noise, hearing protection, jet and rocket noise, building systems noise and vibration, atmospheric sound propagation, soundscapes, and low-frequency sound. The diverse technical background of TCNS members is essential, given the interdisciplinary nature of this research, and it is mirrored in the topics of special sessions typically held jointly with other ASA technical committees.

noise↗
NASA NTRS2021

TIC 172900988: A Transiting Circumbinary Planet Detected in One Sector of TESS Data

We report the first discovery of a transiting circumbinary planet detected from a single sector of Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) data. During Sector 21, the planet TIC 172900988b transited the primary star and then five days later it transited the secondary star. The binary is itself eclipsing, with a period P ≈ 19.7 days and an eccentricity e ≈ 0.45. Archival data from ASAS-SN, Evryscope, KELT, and SuperWASP reveal a prominent apsidal motion of the binary orbit, caused by the dynamical interactions between the binary and the planet. A comprehensive photodynamical analysis of the TESS, archival and follow-up data yields stellar masses and radii of M(1) = 1.2384 ± 0.0007 Mꙩ and R(1) = 1.3827 ± 0.0016 Rꙩ for the primary and M(2) = 1.2019 ± 0.0007 Mꙩ and R(2) = 1.3124 ± 0.0012 Rꙩ for the secondary. The radius of the planet is R(3) = 11.25 ± 0.44 Rꚛ (1.004 ± 0.039R(Jup)). The planet’s mass and orbital properties are not uniquely determined—there are six solutions with nearly equal likelihood. Specifically, we find that the planet’s mass is in the range of 824 ≲ M3 ≲ 981 Mꚛ (2.65 ≲ M3 ≲ 3.09M(Jup)), its orbital period could be 188.8, 190.4, 194.0, 199.0, 200.4, or 204.1 days, and the eccentricity is between 0.02 and 0.09. At V = 10.141 mag, the system is accessible for high-resolution spectroscopic observations, e.g., the Rossiter–McLaughlin effect and transit spectroscopy.

Veselin B. Kostov↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mixed-Domain Charge Transport in the S-Se System from First Principles

Lithium-sulfur (Li-S) batteries are emerging systems heralded for the inexpensive cathode component (in S)and higher energy density than that of typical Li-ion batteries [1–5]. For the latter reason in particular, they are drawing high levels of interest for long-range electric air-craft applications where high gravimetric energy density is of utmost importance. Unfortunately, S by itself has a much too low electrical conductivity to be useful asa stand-alone cathode material. One effort to alleviate these shortcomings is to alloy sulfur with selenium [6–13],which is expected to improve the paltry conductivity of S as Se, depending on the phase, is 10∼30 times more conductive. This, however, comes at the cost of the heavier mass of Se that works against the gravimetric energy density. The charge transport behavior in the S1−xSex alloy system, not yet fully known or understood, is necessary for one to navigate the trade-offs between conductivity and other variables such as energy density en route to ultimately determining the optimum Se content, on demand. Charting carrier mobilities and conductivities in the S-Se system throughout the compositional spectrum from first principles at a predictive level is therefore critical.

Junsoo Park↗
NASA NTRS2022

P- and L-Band Retrieval of Subsurface Soil Moisture and Temperature Profiles as First-Order Polynomial Function

This paper demonstrates the potential use of P and L band passive measurements to determine root zone soil moisture (SM) and soil temperature(ST). SM and ST data have been taken as a function of depth during the NASA GSFC PLEX19 experiment in the summer of 2019 at Beltsville, MD, USA. Using these data, a coherent model has been used to compute H and V brightness temperatures at frequencies of 0.8 and 1.4 GHz with an observation angle of 35 degrees. These synthetic brightness data are then used to estimate the SM and ST profiles which are represented by linear polynomials. The inversion problem is formulated as a least square problem that is solved by a global optimization method known as the Adaptive Simulated Annealing(ASA) method. Four inversion examples having different SM and ST profiles are presented. Selected results show that the standard deviation between the retrieved and measured data is less than 0.077 cm3/cm3 for SM, and 2.245 °C for ST.

Ming Li↗
NASA NTRS2022

Building a lifeboat: MSL’s uplink and installation campaign to restore a failing backup computer

Flight software updates are among the hardest andmost dangerous activities for the Mars Science Laboratory(MSL) Curiosity team. While danger is often mitigated bybackups, fallback strategies, and incremental installation withground-in-the-loop cycles which provide a safety net for theinstallation process, the software update described in this paperwas unable to use many of the common practices due to thenature of the fault addressed by the update. The MSL rover(landed August 2012) encountered a problem with one of itscomputer’s non-volatile storage chips in 2019, requiring a swapto its backup computer and an urgent software upgrade calledR-Hope. R-Hope, a lifeboat to be used in the event of primarycomputer issues, was written, tested, and sent to the rover inlightning speed of just 19 months. Multi-mission and teamcoordination allowed the 49 flight software image files to beuplinked to the rover over a 6-week period, using multiple pathsand backup options for speedy delivery. In the end, the RHopesoftware upgrade returned the computer to operation asa backup flight computer. The flight software transition wasdesigned to impact science return as little as possible, and installationplans included science activities for the majority of MSLinstruments. This paper describes the uplink and installationcampaigns for R-Hope, and discusses the notable lessons learnedby the operations team.

Byrne, DJ↗
NASA NTRS2022

Gaussian Process Regression Method for Costing SmallSat Bus Capabilities

NASA is responding to the growing interest in, andcapabilities of, small satellites for science applications with an increasingnumber and frequency of Announcements of Opportunityfor small satellite space missions. Estimating the probabilitythat these mission concepts will fit within the small cost capsof these opportunities is largely driven by the probability thatone of the burgeoning number of small satellite providers will beable to meet the payload’s accommodation requirements withinthe budget for the spacecraft. JPL has collected a databasecontaining technical specifications and cost of commerciallyavailable Smallsat buses across various vendors. The primarypurpose of the database is for use in JPL’s Team X architecturestudies to inform cost estimates of a spacecraft bus which fitsthe customer’s technical requirements for their payload andmission. Customer needs are often unique and don’t alignperfectly with an off-the-shelf commercial spacecraft bus, whichmotivates the need to develop a cost model across the continuoustechnical parameter space.Al’s Bus Cost Distribution Estimator (ABCDE) uses Gaussianprocess regression (GPR) to predict commercial Smallsat spacecraftbus cost based on a subset of a customer’s technicalrequirements (payload mass, payload power, delta V, pointingcontrol, and downlink rate). GPR is implemented in ABCDE asa Bayesian method which fits an implied multivariate regressionon the technical parameters and uses kriging to intentionally“overfit” the residuals. Overfitting the residuals allows costestimates to collapse in uncertainty closer to the data pointswhile maintaining larger uncertainty intervals in regions of parameterspace with fewer data records. The data used to fit thismodel is sensitive and represents cost estimates for off-the-shelfcommercial buses. GPR simultaneously protects the sensitivityof the database and uses the sparse nature of the database toaccount for uncertainty in cost in a useful way. For a givenset of customer technical requirements, the tool provides a costestimate distribution, the percentiles of which can be interpretedas a confidence level of finding a commercial bus under a specifiedcost cap. ABCDE dramatically pushes the boundaries ofspacecraft cost estimation models due to its Bayesian methodology(accounting for the maximum uncertainty in the underlyingregression), the mathematically advanced kriging methodology,and the novelty of its application in Team X architecture tradestudies.

Austin, Alex↗