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At least 145 records · Page 8

Annual Research Briefs, 2002: Center for Turbulence Research

Turbulent combustion remains the largest component of the CTR's core program. This program and several related activities at CTR are supported by NASA's Ultra Efficient Engine Technology Program. It is also intimately connected with the Department of Energy's ASCI program at Stanford which develops the technology for numerical simulation of realistic aircraft engines using state of the art massively parallel computers. In combustion modeling the attention has been directed to the modeling of higher levels of complexity such as spray dynamics, radiation and soot formation. Major aircraft engine manufacturers have shown considerable interest in this program; in particular, a significant active collaboration exists between CTR and the Pratt & Whitney Corporation. CTR's combustion program is essentially based on the large-eddy simulation technique, LES, which is actively being pursued at CTR for this and many other applications. Important accomplishments in LES included simulations with three-dimensional filters which result in grid independent calculations (that is why we call it "true" LES), and the development of the methodology for integration of LES and Reynolds Averaged computations. Optimization techniques are being studied and used for the important problem of wall boundary conditions for LES as well as for optimal shape design for aeroacoustic and aerodynamic performance gains.

ULTRA EFFICIENT ENGINE TECHNOLOGY↗

Hydrogen from Sunlight and Water: A Side-by-Side Comparison between Photoelectrochemical and Solar Thermochemical Water-Splitting

Photoelectrochemical (PEC) and solar thermochemical (STCH) water-splitting represent two promising pathways for direct solar hydrogen generation. PEC water-splitting integrates multiple functional materials and utilizes energetic electrons and holes generated from sunlight to produce hydrogen and oxygen in two half-reactions, while STCH water-splitting couples a series of consecutive chemical reactions and uses absorbed heat from sunlight to generate hydrogen and oxygen in two full reactions. In this Focus Review, the basic operating principles, sunlight utilization, device architecture, reactor design, instantaneous and annually averaged solar-to-hydrogen (STH) conversion efficiency, and the operating conditions and constraints of both pathways are compared. A side-by-side comparison addresses some common sources of confusion and misinterpretation, especially in the evaluation of STH conversion efficiencies, and reveals distinct features and challenges in both PEC and STCH technologies. Furthermore, this Focus Review also addresses materials and device challenges in PEC and STCH for cost-competitive hydrogen generation.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Long-range Transport of Asian Dust Storms: A Satellite/Surface Perspective on Societal and Scientific Influence

Among the many components contributing to air pollution, airborne mineral dust plays an important role due to its biogeochemical impact on the ecosystem and its radiative forcing effect on the weather/climate system. As much as one-third to half of the global dust emissions, estimated about 800 Tg, are introduced annually into Earth's atmosphere from various deserts in China. Asian dust storm outbreaks are believed to have persisted for hundreds and thousands years over the vast territory of north and northwest China, but not until recent decades that many studies reveal the compelling evidence in recognizing the importance of these eolian dust particles for forming Chinese Loess Plateau and for biogeochemical cycling in the North Pacific Ocean to as far as in the Greenland ice-sheets through long-range transport. The Asian dust and air pollution aerosols can be detected by its colored appearance on current Earth observing satellites and its evolution monitored by satellite and surface network. In this paper, we will demonstrate the capability of a new satellite algorithm, called Deep Blue, to retrieve aerosol properties, particularly but not limited to, over bright-reflecting surfaces such as urban areas and deserts. Recently, many field campaigns were designed and executed to study the compelling variability in spatial and temporal scale of both pollution-derived and naturally occurring aerosols, which often exist in high concentrations over eastern Asia and along the rim of the western Pacific. We will provide an overview of the outbreak of Asian dust storms, near source/sink and their evolution along transport pathway, from space and surface observations. The climatic effects and societal impacts of the Asian dusts will be addressed in depth. (to be presented in the International Workshop on Semi-Arid Land Surface-

Source record↗

Mars Environmental Survey (MESUR): Science objectives and mission description

In-situ observations and measurements of Mars are objectives of a feasibility study beginning at the Ames Research Center for a mission called the Mars Environmental SURvey (MESUR). The purpose of the MESUR mission is to emplace a pole-to-pole global distribution of landers on the Martian surface to make both short- and long-term observations of the atmosphere and surface. The basic concept is to deploy probes which would directly enter the Mars atmosphere, provide measurements of the upper atmospheric structure, image the local terrain before landing, and survive landing to perform meteorology, seismology, surface imaging, and soil chemistry measurements. MESUR is intended to be a relatively low-cost mission to advance both Mars science and human presence objectives. Mission philosophy is to: (1) 'grow' a network over a period of years using a series of launch opportunities, thereby minimizing the peak annual costs; (2) develop a level-of-effort which is flexible and responsive to a broad set of objectives; (3) focus on science while providing a solid basis for human exploration; and (4) minimize project cost and complexity wherever possible. In order to meet the diverse scientific objectives, each MESUR lander will carry the following strawman instrument payload consisting of: (1) Atmospheric structure experiment, (2) Descent and surface imagers, (3) Meteorology package, (4) Elemental composition instrument, (5) 3-axis seismometer, and (6) Thermal analyzer/evolved gas analyzer. The feasibility study is primarily to show a practical way to design an early capability for characterizing Mars' surface and atmospheric environment on a global scale. The goals are to answer some of the most urgent questions to advance significantly our scientific knowledge about Mars, and for planning eventual exploration of the planet by robots and humans.

Hubbard, G. Scott↗

Analyzing Next-Generation Supply Chains Using the Materials Flows through Industry Tool

The Materials Flows through Industry (MFI) tool is a supply chain modeling tool developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) with funding from the Department of Energy's Advanced Manufacturing Office. MFI was created to identify and analyze opportunities to reduce the energy and carbon intensities of the U.S. industrial sector (Hanes and Carpenter 2017). In this work, we present an overview of the MFI tool's structure and capabilities, as well as the results of using MFI to analyze a novel NREL-developed process to 'upcycle' PET plastic into higher-value composite materials (Rorrer et al. 2019). This process combines recycled PET (rPET) plastic with inputs that can be derived from biomass, including muconic acid, acrylic acid, and ethylene glycol, to chemically break down the plastic back to its monomers in a process called glycolization. Then, repolymerization and the application of fiberglass yields the valuable glass fiber reinforced plastic (GFRP) composite, a performance material used in the manufacture of wind turbine blades, boat hulls, and other applications. This rPET-derived GFRP was found to have superior strength and fiberglass adhesion compared to conventional GFRP formulations. Our findings indicate that this GFRP production process, were it to be widely commercialized beyond its current lab-scale, could potentially reduce the fossil energy intensity of the GFRP supply chain by between 37% and 58% compared to the conventional method of GFRP manufacture from fossil-derived inputs. We also estimate potential supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions between 30% and 40% from this process. Scaling these GHG offset estimates up to annual GFRP production in the U.S. would be roughly equivalent to removing between 150,000 and 200,000 vehicles from U.S. roads. These ranges of impact estimates represent the range of differences associated with the various economic allocation methods we have assumed for the intensity contributions from the first life of the PET plastic. Following Shen et al. (2010), we derive economic allocation factors from the current price ratios of clear- and green-colored recycled PET plastic to virgin PET resin ('waste-valuation' approach) or assume them to be zero in a more simplistic allocation ('cutoff' approach). Future work involving the MFI modeling tool will also be discussed, including preliminary results comparing the energy intensity of conventional and bio-based nylons manufacturing. Attendees will also be encouraged to conduct MFI supply chain modeling of their own by requesting a user account on the MFI web application, which is freely available to the public at the following address: https://mfitool.nrel.gov.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dynamic hosting capacity analysis for distributed photovoltaic resources—Framework and case study

Distributed photovoltaic systems can cause adverse distribution system impacts, including voltage violations at customer locations and thermal overload of lines, transformers, and other equipment resulting from high current. The installed capacity at which violations first occur and above which would require system upgrades is called the hosting capacity. Current static methods for determining hosting capacity tend to either consider infrequent worst-case snapshots in time and/or capture coarse time and spatial resolution. Because the duration of violations cannot be captured with these traditional methods, the metric thresholds used in these studies conservatively use the strictest constraints given in operating standards, even though both worse voltage performance and higher overloads may be temporarily acceptable. However, assessing the full details requires accurately capturing time-dependence, voltage-regulating equipment operations, and performance of advanced controls-based mitigation techniques. In this paper, we propose a dynamic distributed photovoltaic hosting capacity methodology to address these issues by conducting power flow analysis for a full year. A key contribution is the formulation of time aware metrics to take these annual results and identify the hosting capacity. Through a case study, we show that this approach can more fully capture grid impacts of distributed photovoltaic than traditional methods and the dynamic hosting capacity was 60%–200% higher than the static hosting capacity in this case study.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Fundamental Behavior of ENSO Phase Locking

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events tend to peak at the end of the calendar year, a phenomenon called ENSO phase locking. This phase locking is a fundamental ENSO property that is determined by its basic dynamics. The conceptual ENSO recharge oscillator (RO) model is adopted to examine the ENSO phase-locking behavior in terms of its peak time, strength of phase locking, and asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events. The RO model reproduces the main phase-locking characteristics found in observations, and the results show that the phase locking of ENSO is mainly dominated by the seasonal modulation of ENSO growth/decay rate. In addition, the linear/nonlinear mechanism of ENSO phase preference/phase locking is investigated using RO model. The difference between the nonlinear phase-locking mechanism and linear phase-preference mechanism is largely smoothed out in the presence of noise forcing. Further, the impact on ENSO phase locking from annual cycle modulation of the growth/decay rate, stochastic forcing, nonlinearity, and linear frequency are examined in the RO model. The preferred month of ENSO peak time depends critically on the phase and strength of the seasonal modulation of the ENSO growth/decay rate. Furthermore, the strength of phase locking is mainly controlled by the linear growth/decay rate, the amplitude of seasonal modulation of growth/decay rate, the amplitude of noise, the SST-dependent factor of multiplicative noise, and the linear frequency. The asymmetry of the sharpness of ENSO phase locking is induced by the asymmetric effect of state-dependent noise forcing in El Niño and La Niña events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Space Studies Board Annual Report, 2003

The Space Studies Board is a unit of the NRC's Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences (DEPS), and it reports to the Division for oversight. DEPS is one of six major program units of the NRC through which the institution conducts its operations on behalf of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. Within DEPS there are a total of 14 boards that cover a broad range of physical science and engineering disciplines and mission areas. Members of the DEPS Committee on Engineering and Physical Sciences provide advice on Board membership and advise on proposed new projects to be undertaken by the Board or its committees. Every 3 years the DEPS Committee also reviews the overall operations of each of its boards. The last review of the SSB was in 2001. The Board meets three times per year to review the activities of its committees and task groups and to be briefed on and discuss major space policy issues. An internal executive committee composed of seven at-large members of the Board meets at least once a year and may convene via conference call at other times to plan for SSB activities and to advise the chair between meetings. All projects proposed to be conducted by standing committees or ad hoctask groups must first be reviewed and approved by the Board or its executive committee, and the Board monitors the progress of the projects throughout the course of the studies.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA↗

The Challenge Ahead: A Critical Perspective on Meeting U.S. Growth Targets for Sustainable Aviation Fuel

With demand for jet fuel expected to more than double by 2050 and triple by 2070, continued and accelerated efforts to decarbonize the global aviation sector are needed to curtail rising emissions and avert the worst outcomes of climate change. In response to this call-to-action, the United States has unveiled the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Grand Challenge, which seeks to expedite the development of alternative fuel pathways that offer a minimum of a 50% reduction in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional jet fuel. However, there is growing concern on whether sufficient biomass will be readily available to satisfy the projected sharp rise in demand for SAF. Carbon dioxide point-source emissions combined with rising supply from direct air capture efforts have the potential to complement and offset any supply gaps for biomass-derived SAF and other use cases. Independent of the chosen feedstock and conversion technology, numerous challenges persist across SAF production in seeking to drive down fuel cost and carbon intensity. To hit the 2030 target of 3 billion gal/yr, this means about a 100% compound annual growth rate in volumetric SAF production (about 130 times scale-up) will need to be realized. To achieve the stretch goal of 35 billion gallons of SAF per year by 2050, volumetric production must increase by a factor of 12 from the 3-billion-gal/year 2030 target of SAF Grand Challenge. The comparatively longer runway for 2050 combined with significant production volume growth suggests a more inclusive "all-hands-on-deck"-style approach will likely play a role. A key component in success lies in the coordinated research, development, demonstration, and deployment efforts by multiple federal agencies and industry partnerships.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The 2016 Perseids

The Perseid meteor shower has been observed since ancient times. One of the most prolific annual showers, the Perseids have also been known to outburst. At least two spacecraft have suffered anomalies potentially caused by meteoroid impacts during Perseid outbursts. Olympus, an ESA telecommunications satellite, was likely impacted by a Perseid meteoroid during the 1993 outburst that ultimately led to the termination of the spacecraft's mission. Landsat-5, an imaging satellite jointly managed by NASA and the USGS, lost gyro stability during the peak of the Perseids in 2009. The Perseid meteor shower is expected to outburst again in 2016. Stream model predictions place the peak activity on the night of August 11-12 (UT) as the Earth passes through several old debris trails from parent comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle. Observing geometry favors Europe at the onset, but increased activity for about half a day means that North America is also well-placed for observations. A call for observations to characterize the stream and constrain numerical models is made. Modeling results, observing geometry, and spacecraft risk during the 2016 Perseids will be discussed.

Moser, D. E.↗

Deriving Snow-Cover Depletion Curves for Different Spatial Scales from Remote Sensing and Snow Telemetry Data

During the melting of a snowpack, snow water equivalent (SWE) can be correlated to snow-covered area (SCA) once snow-free areas appear, which is when SCA begins to decrease below 100%. This amount of SWE is called the threshold SWE. Daily SWE data from snow telemetry stations were related to SCA derived from moderate-resolution imaging spectro radiometer images to produce snow-cover depletion curves. The snow depletion curves were created for an 80,000 sq km domain across southern Wyoming and northern Colorado encompassing 54 snow telemetry stations. Eight yearly snow depletion curves were compared, and it is shown that the slope of each is a function of the amount of snow received. Snow-cover depletion curves were also derived for all the individual stations, for which the threshold SWE could be estimated from peak SWE and the topography around each station. A stations peak SWE was much more important than the main topographic variables that included location, elevation, slope, and modelled clear sky solar radiation. The threshold SWE mostly illustrated inter-annual consistency.

snow depletion curves↗

Efficient species identification for Pacific salmon genetic monitoring programs

Abstract Genetic monitoring of Pacific salmon in the Columbia River basin provides crucial information to fisheries managers that is otherwise challenging to obtain using traditional methods. Monitoring programs such as genetic stock identification (GSI) and parentage‐based tagging (PBT) involve genotyping tens of thousands of individuals annually. Although rare, these large sample collections inevitably include misidentified species, which exhibit low genotyping success on species‐specific Genotyping‐in‐Thousands by sequencing (GT‐seq) panels. For laboratories involved in large‐scale genotyping efforts, diagnosing non‐target species and reassigning them to the appropriate monitoring program can be costly and time‐consuming. To address this problem, we identified 19 primer pairs that exhibit consistent cross‐species amplification among salmonids and contain 51 species informative variants. These genetic markers reliably discriminate among 11 salmonid species and two subspecies of Cutthroat Trout and have been included in species‐specific GT‐seq panels for Chinook Salmon, Coho Salmon, Sockeye Salmon, and Rainbow Trout commonly used for Pacific salmon genetic monitoring. The majority of species‐informative amplicons (16) were newly identified from the four existing GT‐seq panels, thus demonstrating a low‐cost approach to species identification when using targeted sequencing methods. A species‐calling script was developed that is tailored for routine GT‐seq genotyping pipelines and automates the identification of non‐target species. Following extensive testing with empirical and simulated data, we demonstrated that the genetic markers and accompanying script accurately identified species and are robust to missing genotypic data and low‐frequency, shared polymorphisms among species. Finally, we used these tools to identify Coho Salmon incidentally caught in the Columbia River Chinook Salmon sport fishery and used PBT to determine their hatchery of origin. These molecular and computing resources provide a valuable tool for Pacific salmon conservation in the Columbia River basin and demonstrate a cost‐effective approach to species identification for genetic monitoring programs.

Robinson, Zachary L.↗

Surface Habitat Systems

The Surface Habitat Systems (SHS) Focused Investment Group (FIG) is part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Johnson Space Center (JSC) effort to provide a focused direction and funding to the various projects that are working on human surface habitat designs and technologies for the planetary exploration missions. The overall SHS-FIG effort focuses on directing and guiding those projects that: 1) develop and demonstrate new surface habitat system concepts, innovations, and technologies to support human exploration missions, 2) improve environmental systems that interact with human habitats, 3) handle and emplace human surface habitats, and 4) focus on supporting humans living and working in habitats on planetary surfaces. The activity areas of the SHS FIG described herein are focused on the surface habitat project near-term objectives as described in this document. The SHS-FIG effort focuses on mitigating surface habitat risks (as identified by the Lunar Surface Systems Project Office (LSSPO) Surface Habitat Element Team; and concentrates on developing surface habitat technologies as identified in the FY08 gap analysis. The surface habitat gap assessment will be updated annually as the surface architecture and surface habitat definition continues to mature. These technologies are mapped to the SHS-FIG Strategic Development Roadmap. The Roadmap will bring to light the areas where additional innovative efforts are needed to support the development of habitat concepts and designs and the development of new technologies to support of the LSSPO Habitation Element development plan. Three specific areas of development that address Lunar Architecture Team (LAT)-2 and Constellation Architecture Team (CxAT) Lunar habitat design issues or risks will be focused on by the SHS-FIG. The SHS-FIG will establish four areas of development that will help the projects prepare in their planning for surface habitat systems development. Those development areas are the 1) surface habitat concept definition, 2) inflatable surface habitat development, and 3) autonomous habitat operations, and 4) cross-cutting / systems engineering. In subsequent years, the SHS-FIG will solicit a call for innovations and technologies that will support the development of these four development areas. The other development areas will be assessed yearly and identified on the SHS-FIG s Strategic Development Roadmap. Initial investment projects that are funded by the Constellation Program Office (CxPO), LSSPO, or the Exploration Technology Development Projects (ETDP) will also be included on the Roadmap. For example, in one or two years from now, the autonomous habitat operations and testbed would collaborations with the Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) and Automation for Operations ETDP projects, which will give the surface habitat projects an integrated habitat autonomy testbed to test software and systems. The SHS-FIG scope is to provide focused direction for multiple innovations, technologies and subsystems that are needed to support humans at a remote planetary surface habitat during the concept development, design definition, and integration phases of that project. Subsystems include: habitability, lightweight structures, power management, communications, autonomy, deployment, outfitting, life support, wireless connectivity, lighting, thermal and more.

Kennedy, Kriss J.↗

Summary of Analytical Services for the Hanford Site Radionuclide NESHAP Program

This document is a summary of the point source analytical requirements used to demonstrate compliance for the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site operations with 40 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 61, “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants,” (NESHAP) Subpart H, “National Emission Standards for Emissions of Radionuclides Other Than Radon From Department of Energy Facilities,” and the Washington Administrative Code (WAC) 246-247, “Radiation Protection – Air Emissions.” This reference collects information from multiple source documents and is not intended to create, supersede, replace or over-ride any existing contractual, DOE, federal or state statutes, regulations, compliance agreements, orders, permits, licenses or other requirements. The requirement source document governs where any difference may exist. The Hanford Mission Integration Solutions (HMIS) Environmental organization has been contracted by DOE to manage and report data collected from the sampling and monitoring of radioactive air emissions point sources, colloquially called stacks. The Environmental organization coordinates the analyses and reporting of samples collected at various facilities across the Hanford Site. These facilities operate approximately 52 stacks that require sampling, monitoring or estimating radioactive air emissions. The stacks are operated by Bechtel National, Inc. (BNI), Central Plateau Cleanup Company (CPCCo), Hanford Tank Waste Operations & Closure (H2C), Hanford Laboratory Management and Integration (HLMI), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). Stack samples from CPCCo, HLMI and H2C facilities are collected by the operating contractor staff, delivered to HMIS, and then shipped to an offsite contracted laboratory for analyses. The field and laboratory sample data uploaded into the Sample Management and Analytical Results Tracking (SMART) database are used to calculate sample volumes and concentrations. Sample concentrations are evaluated for compliance with federal and state regulations, permits, and license requirements. The SMART database also calculates total curies released for sampled point sources and stacks. Point source effluent concentrations and releases are published annually in publicly available reports. The BNI and PNNL operate several DOE-Hanford Field Office (HFO) stacks subject to the requirements of 40 CFR 61, Subpart H and WAC 246-247. The concentrations, curies released and dose modeling evaluation for these stacks are included in the DOE-HFO annual radionuclide NESHAP report. The sample collection, analyses and emissions estimates for these stacks are outside the scope of HMIS contracted responsibilities and not addressed further in this document.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Call to Arms Control: Synergies between Nonproliferation Applications of Neutrino Detectors and Large-Scale Fundamental Neutrino Physics Experiments (A Snowmass White Paper)

The High Energy Physics community can benefit from a natural synergy in research activities into next-generation large-scale water and scintillator neutrino detectors, now being studied for remote reactor monitoring, discovery and exclusion applications in cooperative nonproliferation contexts. Since approximately 2010, US nonproliferation researchers, supported by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), have been studying a range of possible applications of relatively large (100 ton) to very large (hundreds of kiloton) water and scintillator neutrino detectors. In parallel, the fundamental physics community has been developing detectors at similar scales and with similar design features for a range of high-priority physics topics, primarily in fundamental neutrino physics. These topics include neutrino oscillation studies at beams and reactors, solar, and geological neutrino measurements, supernova studies, and others. Examples of ongoing synergistic work at U.S. national laboratories and universities include prototype gadolinium-doped water and water-based and opaque scintillator test-beds and demonstrators, extensive testing and industry partnerships related to large area fast position-sensitive photomultiplier tubes, and the development of concepts for a possible underground kiloton-scale water-based detector for reactor monitoring and technology demonstrations. Some opportunities for engagement between the two communities include bi-annual Applied Antineutrino Physics conferences, collaboration with U.S. National Laboratories engaging in this research, and occasional NNSA funding opportunities supporting a blend of nonproliferation and basic science R&D, directed at the U.S. academic community.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Pan-Arctic seasonal cycles and long-term trends of aerosol properties from 10 observatories

Even though the Arctic is remote, aerosol properties observed there are strongly influenced by anthropogenic emissions from outside the Arctic. This is particularly true for the so-called Arctic haze season (January through April). In summer (June through September), when atmospheric transport patterns change, and precipitation is more frequent, local Arctic sources, i.e., natural sources of aerosols and precursors, play an important role. Over the last few decades, significant reductions in anthropogenic emissions have taken place. At the same time a large body of literature shows evidence that the Arctic is undergoing fundamental environmental changes due to climate forcing, leading to enhanced emissions by natural processes that may impact aerosol properties. In this study, we analyze 9 aerosol chemical species and 4 particle optical properties from 10 Arctic observatories (Alert, Kevo, Pallas, Summit, Thule, Tiksi, Barrow/Utgiavik, Villum, and Gruvebadet and Zeppelin Observatory – both at Ny-Ålesund Research Station) to understand changes in anthropogenic and natural aerosol contributions. Variables include equivalent black carbon, particulate sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, methanesulfonic acid, sodium, iron, calcium and potassium, as well as scattering and absorption coefficients, single scattering albedo and scattering Ångström exponent. First, annual cycles are investigated, which despite anthropogenic emission reductions still show the Arctic haze phenomenon. Second, long-term trends are studied using the Mann–Kendall Theil–Sen slope method. We find in total 41 significant trends over full station records, i.e., spanning more than a decade, compared to 26 significant decadal trends. The majority of significantly declining trends is from anthropogenic tracers and occurred during the haze period, driven by emission changes between 1990 and 2000. For the summer period, no uniform picture of trends has emerged. Twenty-six percent of trends, i.e., 19 out of 73, are significant, and of those 5 are positive and 14 are negative. Negative trends include not only anthropogenic tracers such as equivalent black carbon at Kevo, but also natural indicators such as methanesulfonic acid and non-sea-salt calcium at Alert. Positive trends are observed for sulfate at Gruvebadet. No clear evidence of a significant change in the natural aerosol contribution can be observed yet. However, testing the sensitivity of the Mann–Kendall Theil–Sen method, we find that monotonic changes of around 5 % yr –1 in an aerosol property are needed to detect a significant trend within one decade. This highlights that long-term efforts well beyond a decade are needed to capture smaller changes. It is particularly important to understand the ongoing natural changes in the Arctic, where interannual variability can be high, such as with forest fire emissions and their influence on the aerosol population. To investigate the climate-change-induced influence on the aerosol population and the resulting climate feedback, long-term observations of tracers more specific to natural sources are needed, as well as of particle microphysical properties such as size distributions, which can be used to identify changes in particle populations which are not well captured by mass-oriented methods such as bulk chemical composition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of inter-grid-cell lateral unsaturated and saturated flow model in the E3SM Land Model (v2.0)

Abstract. The lateral transport of water in the subsurface is important in modulating terrestrial water energy distribution. Although a few land surface models have recently included lateral saturated flow within and across grid cells, it is not a default configuration in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project version 6 experiments. In this work, we developed the lateral subsurface flow model within both unsaturated and saturated zones in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model version 2 (ELMv2.0). The new model, called ELMlat, was benchmarked against PFLOTRAN, a 3D subsurface flow and transport model, for three idealized hillslopes that included a convergent hillslope, divergent hillslope, and tilted V-shaped hillslope with variably saturated initial conditions. ELMlat showed comparable performance against PFLOTRAN in terms of capturing the dynamics of soil moisture and groundwater table for the three benchmark hillslope problems. Specifically, the mean absolute errors (MAEs) of the soil moisture in the top 10 layers between ELMlat and PFLOTRAN were within 1 %±3 %, and the MAEs of water table depth were within ±0.2 m. Next, ELMlat was applied to the Little Washita experimental watershed to assess its prediction of groundwater table, soil moisture, and soil temperature. The spatial pattern of simulated groundwater table depth agreed well with the global groundwater table benchmark dataset generated from a global model calibrated with long-term observations. The effects of lateral groundwater flow on the energy flux partitioning were more prominent in lowland areas with shallower groundwater tables, where the difference in simulated annual surface soil temperature could reach 0.3–0.4 ∘C between ELMv2.0 and ELMlat. Incorporating lateral subsurface flow in ELM improves the representation of the subsurface hydrology, which will provide a good basis for future large-scale applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A data-driven global soil heterotrophic respiration dataset and the drivers of its inter-annual variability

Soil heterotrophic respiration (SHR), one of the primary carbon fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, is important for carbon-climate feedbacks because of its sensitivity to available litter and soil carbon, climatic conditions, and nutrient availability. However, until recently limited SHR data were available, and most published global SHR estimates have either a short time span, coarse spatial resolution, or reply on overly-simple model formulations. To better understand and quantify the global distribution of SHR and its sensitivity to climate variability, we produced a new global SHR dataset using Random Forest algorithms, up-scaling 455 point data from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB 4.0) with gridded fields of climatic, edaphic and productivity as explanatory variables. We estimated a global total SHR of 46.8 Pg C yr-1 over 1985-2013 (95% confidence interval: 38.6-56.3 Pg C yr-1), with a significant increasing trend of 0.03 Pg C yr-2 during this period. We found that the choice of soil moisture datasets contributes more to the difference among these data-driven SHR members rather than that of productivity, temperature and precipitation data sources. We also analyzed the influence of climatic variables on the inter-annual variability (IAV) of our SHR product. Water availability was the dominant driver of IAV at global scales, although the inferred sensitivity depends on the choice of the soil moisture gridded dataset. At the ecosystem scale, temperature strongly controls the IAV of SHR in tropical forests, while water availability dominates in extra-tropical forest and semi-arid regions. Our machine-learning gridded SHR dataset and outputs from process-based land surface models (TRENDYv6) show agreement for a strong association between water variability and SHR IAV at the global scale, but the two approaches lead to different temporal trend globally and different controlling variables for IAV at the ecosystem scale. Our study provides evidence for the pervasive and important role of water availability in driving SHR, indicating both a direct effect limiting decomposition rates and an indirect effect through the amount of fresh organic matter made available to SHR from productivity. In consideration of potential limitations and uncertainties remaining in our data-driven SHR datasets, we call for a more scientifically designed observation network for SHR, more observation data compilation, and increased use of deep learning methods making maximum use of observation data in hand. This will benefit process-based models, and improve our understanding of SHR response to future anomalous environmental conditions.

Yao, Yitong↗