Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Anthropogenic impacts”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Forecasted Climate Penalties to Surface Ozone Across the 21st Century

Future climate change may bring local benefits or penalties to surface ozone pollution, resulting from changing temperature, precipitation, and transport patterns, as well as climate-sensitive natural precursor emissions. Here, we estimate climate penalty and benefits at the end of this century using version 2.0 of the Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP 2.0) model framework, a one-way offline coupling between version E2.1 of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemical-transport model (CTM). We archive meteorology for driving GEOS-Chem from the E2.1 contributions to Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for the present day (2005-2014 C.E.) and end-of-the 21st century (2090-2099 C.E.). Emissions and boundary conditions used for input to GEOS-Chem are consistent with the CMIP6 experimental design. We apply the model to isolate the impact of forecasted anthropogenic precursor emission changes versus climate-only driven changes on surface ozone for warming limited to 1.9 W m-2 versus 8.5 W m-2 above preindustrial levels. We find a global climate penalty of 47 (16-77) thousand additional deaths due to surface ozone at the end of the century in the extreme warming scenario, but only 13 (4-21) thousand additional deaths in the extreme mitigation scenario. Similarly, the extreme warming scenario is associated with a 40 % increase in economic losses due to crop damage from climate-only changes in surface ozone, but only an 8 % increase in the extreme mitigation scenario. The simulated climate penalties to surface ozone are most severe in South and East Asia.

Climate penalties↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Nonlinear and Distinct Responses of Ocean Heat Content and Anthropogenic Carbon to Ice Sheet Freshwater Discharge in a Warming Climate

Anthropogenic climate change will drive extensive mass loss across both the Antarctic (AIS) and Greenland Ice Sheets (GrIS), with the potential for global climate system feedbacks, especially in polar regions. Historically, the high-latitude North Atlantic and Southern Ocean have been critical regions for anthropogenic heat and carbon uptake, but our understanding of how this uptake will be altered by future freshwater discharge is incomplete. We assess each ice sheet's impact on global ocean anthropogenic heat and carbon storage for a high-emission scenario over the 21 st -century using a coupled Earth system model. We explore the impact of contemporaneous mass loss from both ice sheets on anthropogenic heat and carbon storage and quantify their linear and nonlinear contributions. Notably, added freshwater reduces ocean heat and carbon storage by 2,100, and the sum of individual freshwater effects differ from those induced by simultaneous freshwater discharge from both ice sheets. Combined AIS and GrIS freshwater engenders distinct anthropogenic storage anomalies—particularly in the high-latitude Southern Ocean and North Atlantic. From 2080 to 2100, GrIS freshwater exerts primary control on the temporal evolution of global ocean heat storage, while global ocean carbon storage is modulated by the linear AIS and GrIS freshwater impacts. Nonlinear impacts of simultaneous ice sheet discharge have a non-negligible contribution to the evolution of global ocean heat storage. Further, anthropogenic heat changes are realized more quickly in response to ice sheet discharge than anthropogenic carbon. Our results highlight the need to incorporate both ice sheets actively in climate models to accurately project future global climate.

Gorte, Tessa↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index into the Noah-MP Land Surface Model: Impacts on Water and Carbon Fluxes and States over the Continental U.S.

Accurate representation of vegetation states is required for the modeling of terrestrial water-energy-carbon exchanges and the characterization of the impacts of natural and anthropogenic vegetation changes on the land surface. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of the impact of assimilating remote sensing-based Leaf Area Index (LAI) retrievals over the Continental U.S. in the Noah-MP land surface model, during a time period of 2000 to 2017. The results demonstrate that the assimilation has a beneficial impact on the simulation of key water budget terms such as soil moisture, evapotranspiration, snow depth, terrestrial water storage and streamflow, when compared with a large suite of reference datasets. In addition, the assimilation of LAI is also found to improve the carbon fluxes of Gross Primary Production (GPP) and Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE). Most prominent improvements in the water and carbon variables are observed over the agricultural areas of the U.S., where assimilation improves the representation of vegetation seasonality impacted by cropping schedules. The systematic, added improvements from assimilation in a configuration that employs high quality boundary conditions highlight the significant utility of LAI data assimilation in capturing the impacts of vegetation changes.

anthropogenic vegetation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming

Abstract. Anthropogenic warming in the Arctic is causing hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw, with implications for flows of water, carbon, and energy from terrestrial biomes to coastal zones. To better understand the likely impacts of these changes, we used a hydrology model driven by meteorological data from atmospheric reanalysis and two global climate models for the period 1980–2100. The hydrology model accounts for soil freeze–thaw processes and was applied across the pan-Arctic drainage basin. The simulations point to greater changes over northernmost areas of the basin underlain by permafrost and to the western Arctic. An acceleration of simulated river discharge over the recent past is commensurate with trends drawn from observations and reported in other studies. Between early-century (2000–2019) and late-century (2080–2099) periods, the model simulations indicate an increase in annual total runoff of 17 %–25 %, while the proportion of runoff emanating from subsurface pathways is projected to increase by 13 %–30 %, with the largest changes noted in summer and autumn and across areas with permafrost. Most notably, runoff contributions to river discharge shift to northern parts of the Arctic Basin that contain greater amounts of soil carbon. Each season sees an increase in subsurface runoff; spring is the only season where surface runoff dominates the rise in total runoff, and summer experiences a decline in total runoff despite an increase in the subsurface component. The greater changes that are seen in areas where permafrost exists support the notion that increased soil thaw is shifting hydrological contributions to more subsurface flow. The manifestations of warming, hydrological cycle intensification, and permafrost thaw will impact Arctic terrestrial and coastal environments through altered river flows and the materials they transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Temperature and nutrients drive eco-phenotypic dynamics in a microbial food web

Anthropogenic increases in temperature and nutrient loads will likely impact food web structure and stability. Although their independent effects have been reasonably well studied, their joint effects—particularly on coupled ecological and phenotypic dynamics—remain poorly understood. Here we experimentally manipulated temperature and nutrient levels in microbial food webs and used time-series analysis to quantify the strength of reciprocal effects between ecological and phenotypic dynamics across trophic levels. We found that (1) joint—often interactive—effects of temperature and nutrients on ecological dynamics are more common at higher trophic levels, (2) temperature and nutrients interact to shift the relative strength of top-down versus bottom-up control, and (3) rapid phenotypic change mediates observed ecological responses to changes in temperature and nutrients. Our results uncover how feedback between ecological and phenotypic dynamics mediate food web responses to environmental change. As a result, this suggests important but previously unknown ways that temperature and nutrients might jointly control the rapid eco-phenotypic feedback that determine food web dynamics in a changing world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2009

Variability of Marine Aerosol Fine-Mode Fraction and Estimates of Anthropogenic Aerosol Component Over Cloud-Free Oceans from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)

In this study, we examine seasonal and geographical variability of marine aerosol fine-mode fraction (f(sub m)) and its impacts on deriving the anthropogenic component of aerosol optical depth (tau(sub a)) and direct radiative forcing from multispectral satellite measurements. A proxy of f(sub m), empirically derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5 data, shows large seasonal and geographical variations that are consistent with the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation Transport (GOCART) and Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) model simulations. The so-derived seasonally and spatially varying f(sub m) is then implemented into a method of estimating tau(sub a) and direct radiative forcing from the MODIS measurements. It is found that the use of a constant value for fm as in previous studies would have overestimated Ta by about 20% over global ocean, with the overestimation up to 45% in some regions and seasons. The 7-year (2001-2007) global ocean average tau(sub a) is 0.035, with yearly average ranging from 0.031 to 0.039. Future improvement in measurements is needed to better separate anthropogenic aerosol from natural ones and to narrow down the wide range of aerosol direct radiative forcing.

Yu, Hongbin↗
NASA NTRS2012

Recent Progress on Deep Blue Aerosol Algorithm as Applied TO MODIS, SEA WIFS, and VIIRS, and Their Intercomparisons with Ground Based and Other Satellite Measurements

The impact of natural and anthropogenic sources of aerosols has gained increasing attention from scientific communities in recent years. Indeed, tropospheric aerosols not only perturb radiative energy balance by interacting with solar and terrestrial radiation, but also by changing cloud properties and lifetime. Furthermore, these anthropogenic and natural air particles, once generated over the source regions, can be transported out of the boundary layer into the free troposphere and can travel thousands of kilometers across oceans and continents resulting in important biogeochemical impacts on the ecosystem. With the launch of SeaWiFS in 1997, Terra/MODIS in 1999, and Aqua/MODIS in 2002, high quality comprehensive aerosol climatology is becoming feasible for the first time. As a result of these unprecedented data records, studies of the radiative and biogeochemical effects due to tropospheric aerosols are now possible. In this talk, we will demonstrate how this newly available SeaWiFS/MODIS aerosol climatology can provide an important piece of puzzles in reducing the uncertainty of estimated climatic forcing due to aerosols. We will start with the global distribution of aerosol loading and their variabilities over both land and ocean on short- and long-term temporal scales observed over the last decade. The recent progress made in Deep Blue aerosol algorithm on improving accuracy of these Sea WiFS / MODIS aerosol products in particular over land will be discussed. The impacts on quantifying physical and optical processes of aerosols over source regions of adding the Deep Blue products of aerosol properties over bright-reflecting surfaces into Sea WiFS / MODIS as well as VIIRS data suite will also be addressed. We will also show the intercomparison results of SeaWiFS/MODIS retrieved aerosol optical thickness with data from ground based AERONET sunphotometers over land and ocean as well as with other satellite measurements. The trends observed in global aerosol loadings of both natural and anthropogenic sources based upon more than a decade of combined MODIS/SeaWiFS data (1997-2011) will be discussed. We will also address the importance of various key issues such as differences in spatial-temporal sampling rates and observation time between different satellite measurements could potentially impact these intercomparisons results, especially for using the monthly mean data, and thus on estimates of long-term aerosol trends.

Hsu, N. Christina↗
NASA NTRS2016

Evaluating Summer-Time Ozone Enhancement Events in the Southeast United States

This study evaluates source attribution of ozone (O3) in the southeast US within O3 lamina observed by the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) system during June 2013. This research applies surface-level and airborne in situ data and chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, simulations in order to quantify the impact of North American anthropogenic emissions, wildfires, lightning NOx, and background stratospheric transport on the observed O3 lamina. During the summer of 2013, two anomalous O3 layers were observed and evaluated: 1) a nocturnal near-surface enhancement and 2) a late evening elevated (3-6 km above ground level) O3 plume. A "brute force" zeroing method was applied in GEOS-Chem to quantify the impact of individual emission sources and transport pathways on the vertical distribution of O3 during the two observed lamina. These model simulations suggest that the nocturnal O3 enhancement on June 12, 2013 below 3 km was primarily due to wildfire emissions and the fact that daily maximum anthropogenic emission contributions occurred during these night-time hours. During the second case study it was predicted that above average contributions from background stratospheric transport was largely contributing to the O3 lamina observed on June 29, 2013 between 3-6 km. Further evaluation suggested that a stratospheric intrusion was likely the main source contributing to this O3 enhancement between 3-6 km. Supporting information from other models, remote-sensing observations, and ground-based airborne in situ data agree with the source attribution predicted by GEOS-Chem simulations for both case studies. Overall, this study demonstrates the dynamic atmospheric chemistry occurring in the southeast US and displays the various emission sources and transport processes impacting O3 enhancements at different vertical levels of the troposphere.

Laminates↗
DOE OSTI2022

Parasitic Bacteria and Their Effect on Carbon Capture by Biofuel-Relevant Microalgae

The 2022 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report tells a worrying tale of global warming that temperatures will exceed beyond a 1.5 °C increase in the near future. Higher global temperatures result in more frequent and extreme weather events, irreversible ecosystem changes, and will contribute to detrimental impacts on human health. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions— including those from burning fossil fuels for energy use—are the primary drivers of climate change. Organizations like the U.S Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM) are working to decrease the environmental impacts of fossil fuels as society works towards net-zero emissions. To complete this goal, society must reduce its dependence on fossil fuels and move towards cleaner energy sources such as biofuels.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Global Distributions of Mineral Dust Properties from SeaWiFS and MODIS: From Sources to Sinks

The impact of natural and anthropogenic sources of mineral dust has gained increasing attention from scientific communities in recent years. Indeed, these airborne dust particles, once lifted over the source regions, can be transported out of the boundary layer into the free troposphere and can travel thousands of kilometers across the oceans resulting in important biogeochemical impacts on the ecosystem. Due to the relatively short lifetime (a few hours to about a week), the distributions of these mineral dust particles vary extensively in both space and time. Consequently, satellite observations are needed over both source and sink regions for continuous temporal and spatial sampling of aerosol properties. With the launch of SeaWiFS in 1997, Terra/MODIS in 1999, and Aqua/MODIS in 2002, high quality comprehensive aerosol climatology is becoming feasible for the first time. As a result of these unprecedented satellite data records, studies of the radiative and biogeochemical effects due to dust aerosols are now possible. In this study, we will show the comparisons of satellite retrieved aerosol optical thickness using Deep Blue algorithm with data from AERONET sunphotometers over desert and semi-desert regions as well as vegetated areas. Our results indicate reasonable agreements between these two. These new satellite products will allow scientists to determine quantitatively the aerosol properties near sources using high spatial resolution measurements from Sea WiFS and MODIS-like instruments. The multiyear satellite measurements since 1997 from Sea WiFS will be compared with those retrieved from MODIS and MISR, and will be utilized to investigate the interannual variability of source, pathway, and dust loading associated with the dust outbreaks over the entire globe. Finally, the trends observed over the last decade based upon the SeaWiFS time series in the amounts of tropospheric aerosols due to natural and anthropogenic sources (such as changes in the frequency of dust storms) will be discussed.

Hsu, N. Christina↗
DOE OSTI2022

How will United States commercial building energy use be impacted by IPCC climate scenarios?

Climate change and anthropogenically-forced shift of weather in the future will impact energy use and resilience of both the built environment and the electric grid. The aim of this analysis is to understand how future climate scenarios will impact electricity and natural gas use of commercial buildings in the United States. Here, this study analyzes this impact for 2030, 2045, and 2100 using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios defined in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 5. The large, gridded simulation of meteorological variables for RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 are selected and downscaled to make available hourly Future Meteorological Year (FMY) weather files for use and improvement in subsequent studies. High performance computing resources use these FMYs to simulate commercial prototype buildings in every American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) climate zone of the United States (US), and results are scaled to nation-wide energy use using conditioned floor area multipliers. The analysis is conducted without speculating the physical and performance traits of future buildings or the grid characteristics. This analysis quantifies the impact of climate change on source electrical and natural gas usage for commercial buildings in the United States over the next 80 years. If US commercial floorspace remained constant, total energy use by 2100 is predicted between an 1.75% decrease under the greatest emission scenario (8.5) and a 1.76% increase under the lowest emission scenario (2.6). When adjusted for anticipated urban growth by 2100, the predicted range is 65% increase (8.5) and 71% increase (2.6). Under a global temperature rise climate scenario, the warmest US climate zones will see a large increases in electricity use derived from space cooling while the coldest US climate zones will see significant decreases in natural gas use caused by the decrease in heating necessary. While climate change may ultimately require adaptations of the built environment to withstand its effects and because the United States is a country that requires more heating than cooling, from a building energy perspective, climate change (average temperature rise) is a net energy saver for the United States.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA)

With their extensive coverage, marine low clouds greatly impact global climate. Presently, marine low clouds are poorly represented in global climate models, and the response of marine low clouds to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases and aerosols remains the major source of uncertainty in climate simulations. The Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) is a region of persistent but diverse subtropical marine boundary layer clouds, whose albedo and precipitation are highly susceptible to perturbations in aerosol properties. In addition, the ENA is periodically impacted by continental aerosols, making it an excellent location to study the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) budget in a remote marine region periodically perturbed by anthropogenic emissions, and to investigate the impacts of long-range transport of aerosols on remote marine clouds. The Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) campaign was motivated by the need of comprehensive in-situ measurements for improving the understanding of marine boundary layer CCN budget, cloud and drizzle microphysics, and the impact of aerosol on marine low cloud and precipitation. The airborne deployments took place from June 21 to July 20, 2017 and January 15 to February 18, 2018 in the Azores. The flights were designed to maximize the synergy between in-situ airborne measurements and ongoing long-term observations at a ground site. Here we present measurements, observation strategy, meteorological conditions during the campaign, and preliminary findings. Lastly, we discuss future analyses and modeling studies that improve the understanding and representation of marine boundary layer aerosols, clouds, precipitation, and the interactions among them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Global Biogeochemical Cycle of Rhenium

Here, this paper is the first comprehensive synthesis of what is currently known about the different natural and anthropogenic fluxes of rhenium (Re) on Earth's surface. We highlight the significant role of anthropogenic mobilization of Re, which is an important consideration in utilizing Re in the context of a biogeochemical tracer or proxy. The largest natural flux of Re derives from chemical weathering and riverine transport to the ocean (dissolved = 62 × 10 6 g yr -1 and particulate = 5 × 10 6 g yr -1 ). This review reports a new global average [Re] of 16 ± 2 pmol L -1 , or 10 ± 1 pmol L -1 for the inferred pre-anthropogenic concentration without human impact, for rivers draining to the ocean. Human activity via mining (including secondary mobilization), coal combustion, and petroleum combustion mobilize approximately 560 × 10 6 g yr -1 Re, which is more than any natural flux of Re. There are several poorly constrained fluxes of Re that merit further research, including: submarine groundwater discharge, precipitation (terrestrial and oceanic), magma degassing, and hydrothermal activity. The mechanisms and the main host phases responsible for releasing (sources) or sequestrating (sinks) these fluxes remain poorly understood. This study also highlights the use of dissolved [Re] concentrations as a tracer of oxidation of petrogenic organic carbon, and stable Re isotopes as proxies for changes in global redox conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large Ensemble Diagnostic Evaluation of Hydrologic Parameter Uncertainty in the Community Land Model Version 5 (CLM5)

Abstract Land surface models such as the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) seek to enhance understanding of terrestrial hydrology and aid in the evaluation of anthropogenic and climate change impacts. However, the effects of parametric uncertainty on CLM5 hydrologic predictions across regions, timescales, and flow regimes have yet to be explored in detail. The common use of the default hydrologic model parameters in CLM5 risks generating streamflow predictions that may lead to incorrect inferences for important dynamics and/or extremes. In this study, we benchmark CLM5 streamflow predictions relative to the commonly employed default hydrologic parameters for 464 headwater basins over the conterminous United States (CONUS). We evaluate baseline CLM5 default parameter performance relative to a large (1,307) Latin Hypercube Sampling‐based diagnostic comparison of streamflow prediction skill using over 20 error measures. We provide a global sensitivity analysis that clarifies the significant spatial variations in parametric controls for CLM5 streamflow predictions across regions, temporal scales, and error metrics of interest. The baseline CLM5 shows relatively moderate to poor streamflow prediction skill in several CONUS regions, especially the arid Southwest and Central U.S. Hydrologic parameter uncertainty strongly affects CLM5 streamflow predictions, but its impacts vary in complex ways across U.S. regions, timescales, and flow regimes. Overall, CLM5's surface runoff and soil water parameters have the largest effects on simulated high flows, while canopy water and evaporation parameters have the most significant effects on the water balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Linking Dissolved Organic Matter Composition to Landscape Properties in Wetlands Across the United States of America

Abstract Wetlands are integral to the global carbon cycle, serving as both a source and a sink for organic carbon. Their potential for carbon storage will likely change in the coming decades in response to higher temperatures and variable precipitation patterns. We characterized the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition from 12 different wetland sites across the USA spanning gradients in climate, landcover, sampling depth, and hydroperiod for comparison to DOM in other inland waters. Using absorption spectroscopy, parallel factor analysis modeling, and ultra‐high resolution mass spectroscopy, we identified differences in DOM sourcing and processing by geographic site. Wetland DOM composition was driven primarily by differences in landcover where forested sites contained greater aromatic and oxygenated DOM content compared to grassland/herbaceous sites which were more aliphatic and enriched in N and S molecular formulae. Furthermore, surface and porewater DOM was also influenced by properties such as soil type, organic matter content, and precipitation. Surface water DOM was relatively enriched in oxygenated higher molecular weight formulae representing HUP High O/C compounds than porewaters, whose DOM composition suggests abiotic sulfurization from dissolved inorganic sulfide. Finally, we identified a group of persistent molecular formulae (3,489) present across all sites and sampling depths (i.e., the signature of wetland DOM) that are likely important for riverine‐to‐coastal DOM transport. As anthropogenic disturbances continue to impact temperate wetlands, this study highlights drivers of DOM composition fundamental for understanding how wetland organic carbon will change, and thus its role in biogeochemical cycling.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Urbanization in China on the East Asian Summer Monsoon as Revealed by Two Global Climate Models

Abstract The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), vulnerable to anthropogenic activities, exerts profound impacts on precipitation in East Asia. In recent decades, China has been experiencing rapid urbanization. It has not yet reached a consensus on its influences on EASM. Here, we introduce satellite‐derived urban impervious areas of China during 1985–2017 into two global climate models with contrasting biases of climatological EASM simulation. Both models consistently show that urbanization weakens EASM by increasing surface friction drag. The increased surface roughness reduces climatological southerly winds in the concentrated urbanization area. As a result, moisture convergence occurs south of the concentrated urbanization area with ascending motion, while moisture divergence with descending motion appears to the north, resulting in the precipitation anomalies of “southern flood and northern drought.” The dominant role of urban dynamic forcing in regulating EASM is confirmed by reducing urban roughness to the level of croplands in sensitivity experiments. As urban dynamic forcing is largely mitigated, the urbanization impact mainly driven by urban thermal forcing conversely strengthens EASM due to enhanced land‐sea thermal contrast via urbanization‐induced warming. Spatial patterns and magnitudes of the urbanization‐induced EASM weakening vary between the two models due to disparities in their simulations of urban thermodynamic forcing and atmospheric adjustments. These results underscore the robust weakening effect of urbanization on EASM by urban friction drag and document uncertainties in the related spatial pattern and magnitude resulting from model discrepancies.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗