Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Applied Probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1995

An efficient algorithm for choosing scattering directions in Monte Carlo work with arbitrary phase functions

This paper describes an efficient Monte Carlo algorithm for choosing a new direction of a photon after a scattering interaction. The algorithm chooses a scattering angle by linear interpolation in a table of the inverse cumulative scattering probability. A Legendre expansion of the phase function makes it easy to apply Clenshaw's algorithm to build the interpolation table. The points in the table are close enough together that linear interpolation is accurate. With a table of 100,000 entries, we can keep the absolute and relative errors in matching the probability distribution below 10(exp -5).

Barkstrom, Bruce R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Dolinar Receiver in an Information Theoretic Framework

Optical communication at the quantum limit requires that measurements on the optical field be maximally informative, but devising physical measurements that accomplish this objective has proven challenging. The Dolinar receiver exemplifies a rare instance of success in distinguishing between two coherent states: an adaptive local oscillator is mixed with the signal prior to photodetection, which yields an error probability that meets the Helstrom lower bound with equality. Here we apply the same local-oscillator-based architecture with aninformation-theoretic optimization criterion. We begin with analysis of this receiver in a general framework for an arbitrary coherent-state modulation alphabet, and then we concentrate on two relevant examples. First, we study a binary antipodal alphabet and show that the Dolinar receiver's feedback function not only minimizes the probability of error, but also maximizes the mutual information. Next, we study ternary modulation consistingof antipodal coherent states and the vacuum state. We derive an analytic expression for a near-optimal local oscillator feedback function, and, via simulation, we determine its photon information efficiency (PIE). We provide the PIE versus dimensional information efficiency (DIE) trade-off curve and show that this modulation and the our receiver combination performs universally better than (generalized) on-off keying plus photoncounting, although, the advantage asymptotically vanishes as the bits-per-photon diverges towards infinity.

optical communications↗
NASA NTRS2013

First Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Timing Study

NASA's LSP, GSDO and other programs use the probability of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning occurrence issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) in their daily and weekly lightning probability forecasts. These organizations use this information when planning potentially hazardous outdoor activities, such as working with fuels, or rolling a vehicle to a launch pad, or whenever personnel will work outside and would be at-risk from lightning. These organizations would benefit greatly if the 45 WS could provide more accurate timing of the first CG lightning strike of the day. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) has made significant improvements in forecasting the probability of lightning for the day, but forecasting the time of the first CG lightning with confidence has remained a challenge. To address this issue, the 45 WS requested the AMU to determine if flow regimes, wind speed categories, or a combination of the two could be used to forecast the timing of the first strike of the day in the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) lightning warning circles. The data was stratified by various sea breeze flow regimes and speed categories in the surface to 5,000-ft layer. The surface to 5,000-ft layer was selected since that is the layer the 45 WS uses to predict the behavior of sea breeze fronts, which are the dominant influence on the occurrence of first lightning in Florida during the warm season. Due to small data sample sizes after stratification, the AMU could not determine a statistical relationship between flow regimes or speed categories and the time of the first CG strike.. As expected, although the amount and timing of lightning activity varies by time of day based on the flow regimes and speed categories, there are extended tails of low lightning activity making it difficult to specify times when the threat of the first lightning flash can be avoided. However, the AMU developed a graphical user interface with input from the 45 WS that allows forecasters to visualize the climatological frequencies of the timing of the first lightning strike. This tool should contribute directly to the 45 WS goal of improving lightning timing capability for its NASA, US Air Force and commercial customers.

statistical analysis↗
NASA NTRS1975

A non-Gaussian model of continuous atmospheric turbulence proposed for use in aircraft design

This paper describes a statistical model proposed for use in forecasting vehicle responses to stationary continuous atmospheric turbulence. The model is suggested by the observed patchy character of turbulence, and differs from models now in use in that it does not assume the gust velocity to be a Gaussian process. For simplicity only the vertical gust component is considered here. The validity of the proposed model is established through comparison with published data. This comparison shows that the model is in better agreement with observed gust velocity probability distributions and exceedance frequencies than is the widely used Gaussian model, especially insofar as high velocity gusts are concerned. A method of applying the proposed model to the determination of vehicle responses is developed. It is shown that response probability distributions as well as exceedance frequencies can be derived from the eigenvalues and eigenfunction of certain unsymmetric kernels.

Reeves, P. M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Probabilistic simulation of long term behavior in polymer matrix composites

A methodology to compute cumulative probability distribution functions (CDF) of fatigue life for different ratios, r of applied stress to the laminate strength based on first ply failure criteria has been developed and demonstrated. Degradation effects due to long term environmental exposure and mechanical cyclic loads are considered in the simulation process. A unified time-stress dependent multi-factor interaction equation model developed at NASA Lewis Research Center has been used to account for the degradation/aging of material properties due to cyclic loads. Fast probability integration method is used to perform probabilistic simulation of uncertainties. Sensitivity of fatigue life reliability to uncertainties in the primitive random variables are computed and their significance in the reliability based design for maximum life is discussed. The results show that the graphite/epoxy (0/+45/90) deg laminate with ply thickness 0.125 in. has 500,000 cycles life for applied stress to laminate strength ratio of 0.6 and a reliability of 0.999. Also, the fatigue life reliability has been found to be most sensitive to the ply thickness and matrix tensile strength. Tighter quality controls must therefore be enforced on ply thickness and matrix strength in order to achieve high reliability of the structure.

Shah, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Semiclassical study of reactive scattering in a laser field - F + H2 + barred-h times omega times /1.06 microns/ system

Semiclassical calculations of collinear F+H2(nu = 0) reactive and inelastic scattering in an Nd-glass laser field of various intensities are described. The decoupling approximation developed for the Miller-George theory is used for nonadiabatic transitions between the electronic-field surfaces, and special attention is paid to the choice of a proper coordinate system for applying the decoupling approximation. An increase in the total reaction probability and population ratio of the nu = 3 over nu = 2 vibrational state of HF occurs suddenly as the field intensity increases beyond 10 TW/sq cm. It is found that in a laser field the H2 molecule can be vibrationally excited while the F atom is electronically excited.

Yuan, J.-M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Development of a Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis Method for the Analysis of Nondeterministic Structures

Accounting for the statistical geometric and material variability of structures in analysis has been a topic of considerable research for the last 30 years. The determination of quantifiable measures of statistical probability of a desired response variable, such as natural frequency, maximum displacement, or stress, to replace experience-based "safety factors" has been a primary goal of these studies. There are, however, several problems associated with their satisfactory application to realistic structures, such as bladed disks in turbomachinery. These include the accurate definition of the input random variables (rv's), the large size of the finite element models frequently used to simulate these structures, which makes even a single deterministic analysis expensive, and accurate generation of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) necessary to obtain the probability of the desired response variables. The research presented here applies a methodology called probabilistic dynamic synthesis (PDS) to solve these problems. The PDS method uses dynamic characteristics of substructures measured from modal test as the input rv's, rather than "primitive" rv's such as material or geometric uncertainties. These dynamic characteristics, which are the free-free eigenvalues, eigenvectors, and residual flexibility (RF), are readily measured and for many substructures, a reasonable sample set of these measurements can be obtained. The statistics for these rv's accurately account for the entire random character of the substructure. Using the RF method of component mode synthesis, these dynamic characteristics are used to generate reduced-size sample models of the substructures, which are then coupled to form system models. These sample models are used to obtain the CDF of the response variable by either applying Monte Carlo simulation or by generating data points for use in the response surface reliability method, which can perform the probabilistic analysis with an order of magnitude less computational effort. Both free- and forced-response analyses have been performed, and the results indicate that, while there is considerable room for improvement, the method produces usable and more representative solutions for the design of realistic structures with a substantial savings in computer time.

Brown, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Probabilistic Risk Model for Organ Doses and Acute Health Effects of Astronauts on Lunar Missions

Exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) is a major concern during EVAs on the lunar surface and in Earth-to-Lunar transit. 15% of crew times may be on EVA with minimal radiation shielding. Therefore, an accurate assessment of SPE occurrence probability is required for the mission planning by NASA. We apply probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for radiation protection of crews and optimization of lunar mission planning.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of Nondestructive Evaluation Capabilities at NASA MSFC

Nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods examine material integrity without impairing its usefulness. The NDE team at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama is responsible for applying existing methods to new hardware designs and material systems, probability of detection studies to quantify detection capabilities, overseeing NDE requirements for flight hardware, inspecting development articles and flight hardware, engineering support for failure investigations, and investigating emerging NDE methods. NASA MSFC has been on the cutting edge of developing new NDE techniques, first for the space shuttle, then for composite structures, and most recently for additive manufacturing (AM). Standard in-house inspection capabilities include eddy current, magnetic particle, liquid penetrant, ultrasonic, and radiographic testing (including computed tomography). Other advanced inspection capabilities include infrared flash thermography, shearography, acoustic emission, and microwave/millimeter wave testing. Some recent research studies include AM probability of detection testing, investigating in-situ process monitoring methods for AM, and correlating the NDE response of true fatigue cracks with artificial notches.

nondestructive evaluation↗
NASA NTRS1978

Analysis of daily latitude variations

The daily latitude measurements of the International polar motion service are analyzed. The results indicate that the annual polar oscillation is probably due to local phenomena with amplitudes varying from 0.05 to 0.15 min. Within the resolution of the residuals (150 cm), there is no indication of the sharp changes which might be associated with earthquake effects. Then, applying Schuster's test to a periodogram of the residuals indicates that there are probably several processes occurring at amplitudes between 0.007 and 0.03 min whose solution awaits a more precise measurement technique.

Graber, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Tile-Failure Analysis

Tile Failure Probability Model (TFPM) program originally developed to quantitatively assess risk of tile loss of thermal-protection tile from Space Shuttle Orbiter. TFPM is fairly specific to orbiter, but basic technique is applied in other structural design situations where anticipated loads and material strength have significantly variable probability distributions.

Ohern, E. A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

History of the Development of Liquid-Applied Coatings for Protection of Reinforced Concrete

Corrosion of reinforcing steel in concrete is an insidious problem for structures at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). KSC is located on the coast of Florida in a highly corrosive atmosphere. Launch pads, highway bridge infrastructure, and buildings are strongly affected. To mitigate these problems, NASA initiated a development program for a Galvanic Liquid-Applied Coating System (GLACS). A breakthrough in this area would have great commercial value in transportation, marine and construction industry infrastructures. The patented NASA GLACS system has undergone considerable testing to meet the needs of commercialization. A moisture-cure coating gives excellent adhesion with ease of application compared to existing galvanic products on the market. The latest development, GalvaCori; can be sprayed or hand applied to almost any structure shape. A self-adhesive conductive tape system has been devised to simplify current collection within the coating areas. In testing programs, millivolt potential and milliamp output per square foot of anode have been closely studied at actual test sites. These two parameters are probably the most challenging items of a resin-based, room-temperature-applied, galvanic coating. Extensive re-formulation has resulted in a system that provides the needed polarization for catholic protection of reinforcing steel in concrete in a variety of structure environments. The rate of corrosion of rebar in concrete is greatly affected by the environment of the structure. In addition to this, for any given concrete structure; moisture level, carbonization, and chloride contamination influences the rate of rebar corrosion. Similarly, the cathodic protection level of galvanic systems is also dependent on the moisture level of the concrete. GalvaCorr is formulated to maintain galvanic activity as the moisture level of the structure declines. GalvaCorr is available as a three-part kit. The mixing step requires about ten minutes. The viscosity can be easily adjusted to meet the application needs. The pot or working life is four to six hours, depending on the temperature. GalvaCorr can be thought of as a spray-on coating, battery ready to provide up to -1.4 volts (relative to CSE) of cathodic protection (CP) potential.

Curran, Joseph J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Expectation vs. Reality: The Sunrise Problem Applied to Probabilistic Risk Assessment

The Sunrise Problem is succinctly stated as a question: “what is the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow?” Attempts to answer this seemingly simple question reveal unexpected incongruities between statistical/probabilistic estimates and “real-world” expectations. Rather than being a purely philosophical problem, similar incongruities can be found in reliability and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) analyses. These differences between statistical predictions and demonstrated reliability can result in analysis shortcomings that should be addressed and resolved. This presentation will begin by discussing the nature of the Sunrise Problem and how it applies to PRA and reliability. Examples of the Sunrise Problem in a PRA estimate will also be included, along with tips to identify and resolve the shortcomings that result from these anomalous situations.

Sunrise Problem↗
NASA NTRS2015

Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Estimates Derived from SSMI Microwave Remote Sensing and NLDN

Lightning observations are collected using ground-based and satellite-based sensors. The National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) in the United States uses multiple ground sensors to triangulate the electromagnetic signals created when lightning strikes the Earth's surface. Satellite-based lightning observations have been made from 1998 to present using the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, and from 1995 to 2000 using the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) on the Microlab-1 satellite. Both LIS and OTD are staring imagers that detect lightning as momentary changes in an optical scene. Passive microwave remote sensing (85 and 37 GHz brightness temperatures) from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) has also been used to quantify characteristics of thunderstorms related to lightning. Each lightning detection system has fundamental limitations. TRMM satellite coverage is limited to the tropics and subtropics between 38 deg N and 38 deg S, so lightning at the higher latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres is not observed. The detection efficiency of NLDN sensors exceeds 95%, but the sensors are only located in the USA. Even if data from other ground-based lightning sensors (World Wide Lightning Location Network, the European Cooperation for Lightning Detection, and Canadian Lightning Detection Network) were combined with TRMM and NLDN, there would be enormous spatial gaps in present-day coverage of lightning. In addition, a globally-complete time history of observed lightning activity is currently not available either, with network coverage and detection efficiencies varying through the years. Previous research using the TRMM LIS and Microwave Imager (TMI) showed that there is a statistically significant correlation between lightning flash rates and passive microwave brightness temperatures. The physical basis for this correlation emerges because lightning in a thunderstorm occurs where ice is first present in the cloud and electric charge separation occurs. These ice particles efficiently scatter the microwave radiation at the 85 and 37 GHz frequencies, thus leading to large brightness temperature depressions. Lightning flash rate is related to the total amount of ice passing through the convective updraft regions of thunderstorms. Confirmation of this relationship using TRMM LIS and TMI data, however, remains constrained to TRMM observational limits of the tropics and subtropics. Satellites from the Defense Meteorology Satellite Program (DMSP) have global coverage and are equipped with passive microwave imagers that, like TMI, observe brightness temperatures at 85 and 37 GHz. Unlike the TRMM satellite, however, DMSP satellites do not have a lightning sensor, and the DMSP microwave data has never been used to derive global lightning. In this presentation, a relationship between DMSP Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) data and ground-based cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data from NLDN is investigated to derive a spatially complete time history of CG lightning for the USA study area. This relationship is analogous to the established using TRMM LIS and TMI data. NLDN has the most spatially and temporally complete CG lightning data for the USA, and therefore provides the best opportunity to find geospatially coincident observations with SSMI sensors. The strongest thunderstorms generally have minimum 85 GHz Polarized Corrected brightness Temperatures (PCT) less than 150 K. Archived radar data was used to resolve the spatial extent of the individual storms. NLDN data for that storm spatial extent defined by radar data was used to calculate the CG flash rate for the storm. Similar to results using TRMM sensors, a linear model best explained the relationship between storm-specific CG flash rates and minimum 85 GHz PCT. However, the results in this study apply only to CG lightning. To extend the results to weaker storms, the probability of CG lightning (instead of the flash rate) was calculated for storms having 85 GHz PCT greater than 150 K. NLDN data was used to determine if a CG strike occurred for a storm. This probability of CG lightning was plotted as a function of minimum 85 GHz PCT and minimum 37 GHz PCT. These probabilities were used in conjunction with the linear model to estimate the CG flash rate for weaker storms with minimum 85 GHz PCTs greater than 150 K. Results from the investigation of CG lightning and passive microwave radiation signals agree with the previous research investigating total lightning and brightness temperature. Future work will take the established relationships and apply them to the decades of available DMSP data for the USA to derive a map of CG lightning flash rates. Validation of this method and uncertainty analysis will be done by comparing the derived maps of CG lightning flash rates against existing NLDN maps of CG lightning flash rates.

Winesett, Thomas↗
NASA NTRS1999

Use of Several Thermal Analysis Techniques on a Hypalon Paint Coating for the Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) of the Space Shuttle

White Hypalon paint is brush-applied as a moisture barrier coating over cork surfaces on each of the two Space Shuttle SRBS. Fine cracks have been observed in the Hypalon coating three times historically on laboratory witness panels, but never on flight hardware. Recent samples of the cracked and standard ("good") Hypalon were removed from cork surfaces and were tested by Thermal Gravimetric Analysis (TGA), Thermomechanical (TMA) and Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) thermal analysis techniques. The TGA data showed that at 700 C, where only paint pigment solids remain, the cracked material had about 9 weight percent more material remaining than the standard material, probably indicating incomplete mixing of the paint before it was brush-applied to produce the cracked material. Use of the TMA film tension method showed that the average static modulus vs. temperature was about 3 to 6 times higher for the cracked material than for the standard material, indicating a much higher stiffness for the cracked Hypalon. The TMA data also showed than an increased coating thickness for the cracked Hypalon was not a factor in the anomaly.

Wingard, Charles D.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Use of Several Thermal Analysis Techniques on a Hypalon Paint Coating for the Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) of the Space Shuttle

White Hypalon paint is brush-applied as a moisture barrier coating over cork surfaces on each of the two Space Shuttle SRBs. Fine cracks have been observed in the Hypalon coating three times historically on laboratory witness panels, but never on flight hardware. Samples of the cracked and standard ("good") Hypalon were removed from witness panel cork surfaces, and were tested in 1998 by Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA), TMA and Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) thermal analysis techniques. The TGA data showed that at 700C, where only paint pigment solids remain, the cracked material had about 9 weight percent more material remaining than the standard material, probably indicating incomplete mixing of the paint before it was brush-applied to produce the cracked material. Use of the TMA film/fiber technique showed that the average modulus (stiffness) vs. temperature was about 3 to 6 times higher for the cracked material than for the standard material. The TMA data also showed that an increase in coating thickness for the cracked Hypalon was not a factor in the anomaly.

Wingard, Charles D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Determining the Probability of Violating Upper-Level Wind Constraints for the Launch of Minuteman III Ballistic Missiles at Vandenberg Air Force Base

The 30th Operational Support Squadron Weather Flight (30 OSSWF) provides comprehensive weather services to the space program at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) in California. One of their responsibilities is to monitor upper-level winds to ensure safe launch operations of the Minuteman Ill ballistic missile. The 30 OSSWF tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to analyze VAFB sounding data with the goal of determining the probability of violating (PoV) their upper-level thresholds for wind speed and shear constraints specific to this launch vehicle, and to develop a tool that will calculate the PoV of each constraint on the day of launch. In order to calculate the probability of exceeding each constraint, the AMU collected and analyzed historical data from VAFB. The historical sounding data were retrieved from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory archive for the years 1994-2011 and then stratified into four sub-seasons: January-March, April-June, July-September, and October-December. The AMU determined the theoretical distributions that best fit the maximum wind speed and maximum wind shear datasets and applied this information when calculating the averages and standard deviations needed for the historical and real-time PoV calculations. In addition, the AMU included forecast sounding data from the Rapid Refresh model. This information provides further insight for the launch weather officers (LWOs) when determining if a wind constraint violation will occur over the next few hours on the day of launch. The AMU developed an interactive graphical user interface (GUI) in Microsoft Excel using Visual Basic for Applications. The GUI displays the critical sounding data easily and quickly for LWOs on day of launch. This tool will replace the existing one used by the 30 OSSWF, assist the LWOs in determining the probability of exceeding specific wind threshold values, and help to improve the overall upper winds forecast for the launch customer. This presentation will describe how the AMU calculated the historical and real-time PoV values for the specific upper-level wind launch constraints and outline the development of the interactive GUI display.

Shafer, Jaclyn A.↗