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DOE OSTI2022

Comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) for full engineering models by solving probability density function (PDF) equation

This report details a new method for propagating parameter uncertainty (forward uncertainty quantification) in partial differential equations (PDE) based computational mechanics applications. The method provides full-field quantities of interest by solving for the joint probability density function (PDF) equations which are implied by the PDEs with uncertain parameters. Full-field uncertainty quantification enables the design of complex systems where quantities of interest, such as failure points, are not known apriori. The method, motivated by the well-known probability density function (PDF) propagation method of turbulence modeling, uses an ensemble of solutions to provide the joint PDF of desired quantities at every point in the domain. A small subset of the ensemble is computed exactly, and the remainder of the samples are computed with approximation of the driving (dynamics) term of the PDEs based on those exact solutions. Although the proposed method has commonalities with traditional interpolatory stochastic collocation methods applied directly to quantities of interest, it is distinct and exploits the parameter dependence and smoothness of the dynamics term of the governing PDEs. The efficacy of the method is demonstrated by applying it to two target problems: solid mechanics explicit dynamics with uncertain material model parameters, and reacting hypersonic fluid mechanics with uncertain chemical kinetic rate parameters. A minimally invasive implementation of the method for representative codes SPARC (reacting hypersonics) and NimbleSM (finite- element solid mechanics) and associated software details are described. For solid mechanics demonstration problems the method shows order of magnitudes improvement in accuracy over traditional stochastic collocation. For the reacting hypersonics problem, the method is implemented as a streamline integration and results show very good accuracy for the approximate sample solutions of re-entry flow past the Apollo capsule geometry at Mach 30.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Overview of Algorithms for Using Particle Morphology in Pre-Detonation Nuclear Forensics

A major goal in pre-detonation nuclear forensics is to infer the processing conditions and/or facility type that produced radiological material. This review paper focuses on analyses of particle size, shape, texture (“morphology”) signatures that could provide information on the provenance of interdicted materials. For example, uranium ore concentrates (UOC or yellowcake) include ammonium diuranate (ADU), ammonium uranyl carbonate (AUC), sodium diuranate (SDU), magnesium diuranate (MDU), and others, each prepared using different salts to precipitate U from solution. Once precipitated, UOCs are often dried and calcined to remove adsorbed water. The products can be allowed to react further, forming uranium oxides UO3, U3O8, or UO2 powders, whose surface morphology can be indicative of precipitation and/or calcination conditions used in their production. This review paper describes statistical issues and approaches in using quantitative analyses of measurements such as particle size and shape to infer production conditions. Statistical topics include multivariate t tests (Hotelling’s T 2 ), design of experiments, and several machine learning (ML) options including decision trees, learning vector quantization neural networks, mixture discriminant analysis, and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). ABC is emphasized as an attractive option to include the effects of model uncertainty in the selected and fitted forward model used for inferring processing conditions.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantification of Type I Interferon Inhibition by Viral Proteins: Ebola Virus as a Case Study

Type I interferons (IFNs) are cytokines with both antiviral properties and protective roles in innate immune responses to viral infection. They induce an antiviral cellular state and link innate and adaptive immune responses. Yet, viruses have evolved different strategies to inhibit such host responses. One of them is the existence of viral proteins which subvert type I IFN responses to allow quick and successful viral replication, thus, sustaining the infection within a host. We propose mathematical models to characterise the intra-cellular mechanisms involved in viral protein antagonism of type I IFN responses, and compare three different molecular inhibition strategies. We study the Ebola viral protein, VP35, with this mathematical approach. Approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo, together with experimental data and the mathematical models proposed, are used to perform model calibration, as well as model selection of the different hypotheses considered. Finally, we assess if model parameters are identifiable and discuss how such identifiability can be improved with new experimental data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Monte Carlo Control Loops for Cosmic Shear Cosmology with DES Year 1

Weak lensing by large-scale structure is a powerful probe of cosmology and of the dark universe. This cosmic shear technique relies on the accurate measurement of the shapes and redshifts of background galaxies and requires precise control of systematic errors. The Monte Carlo Control Loops (MCCL) is a forward modelling method designed to tackle this problem. It relies on the Ultra Fast Image Generator (UFig) to produce simulated images tuned to match the target data statistically, followed by calibrations and tolerance loops. We present the first end-to-end application of this method, on the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 wide field imaging data. We simultaneously measure the shear power spectrum $C_{\ell}$ and the redshift distribution $n(z)$ of the background galaxy sample. The method includes maps of the systematic sources, Point Spread Function (PSF), an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) inference of the simulation model parameters, a shear calibration scheme, and the fast estimation of the covariance matrix. We find a close statistical agreement between the simulations and the DES Y1 data using an array of diagnostics. In a non-tomographic setting, we derive a set of $C_\ell$ and $n(z)$ curves that encode the cosmic shear measurement, as well as the systematic uncertainty. Following a blinding scheme, we measure the combination of $\Omega_m$, $\sigma_8$, and intrinsic alignment amplitude $A_{\rm{IA}}$, defined as $S_8D_{\rm{IA}} = \sigma_8(\Omega_m/0.3)^{0.5}D_{\rm{IA}}$, where $D_{\rm{IA}}=1-0.11(A_{\rm{IA}}-1)$. We find $S_8D_{\rm{IA}}=0.895^{+0.054}_{-0.039}$, where systematics are at the level of roughly 60\% of the statistical errors. We discuss these results in the context of earlier cosmic shear analyses of the DES Y1 data. Our findings indicate that this method and its fast runtime offer good prospects for cosmic shear measurements with future wide-field surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

ATOMISTIC CHARACTERIZATION OF METAL-ORGANIC FRAMEWORKS FOR SUB-AMBIENT PRESSURE SWING ADSORPTION OF POST-COMBUSTION CO2 CAPTURE AND SEPARATION

Developing cost-effective and less energy-intensive carbon capture processes for dilute CO2 sources is of high interest. Adsorption-based CO2 capture such as pressure swing adsorption (PSA) is one promising approach to this challenge. PSA and other cyclic adsorption processes are materials-enabled separations that use porous adsorbents, including metal-organic frameworks (MOFs). This thesis examines post-combustion carbon capture in sub-ambient PSA, a potential route to an effective adsorption process, using MOF materials via molecular modeling. We first estimated the reproducibility of CO2 adsorption isotherm measurements in MOFs via literature meta-analysis. This chapter provides a comprehensive summary of the state of knowledge regarding CO2 adsorption in MOFs and its implications for molecular modeling of adsorption in MOFs. We then examined the upper bounds on CO2 swing capacity in sub-ambient PSA by Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulation of an extensive collection of MOFs. A wide variety of MOFs was found to have swing capacity exceeding 10 mol/kg at sub-ambient temperatures provided that MOFs are appropriately selected based on their physical properties. We also assessed the capability of simple proxies for adsorbent performance and approximate models of cyclic adsorption to predict the outcomes of detailed process models of adsorption-based CO2 capture processes. To this end, we discuss the correlations between predictions from the simpler models and detailed process models. As a separate contribution, molecular modeling of chemical warfare agents (CWAs) adsorption in MOFs was analyzed. Molecular models of adsorption of CO2, CWAs or other molecules typically employ a rigid framework approximation for computational convenience. All real frameworks including MOFs, however, have intrinsic flexibility due to thermal vibrations. We examine the implications of this simple observation for quantitative predictions of the properties of adsorbed CWAs.

Park, Jongwoo↗

DOE OSTI2023

An analytic approach to quasinormal modes for coupled linear systems

Quasinormal modes describe the ringdown of compact objects deformed by small perturbations. In generic theories of gravity that extend General Relativity, the linearized dynamics of these perturbations is described by a system of coupled linear differential equations of second order. We first show, under general assumptions, that such a system can be brought to a Schrödinger-like form. We then devise an analytic approximation scheme to compute the spectrum of quasinormal modes. We validate our approach using a toy model with a controllable mixing parameter ε and showing that the analytic approximation for the fundamental mode agrees with the numerical computation when the approximation is justified. The accuracy of the analytic approximation is at the (sub-) percent level for the real part and at the level of a few percent for the imaginary part, even when ε is of order one. Our approximation scheme can be seen as an extension of the approach of Schutz and Will [1] to the case of coupled systems of equations, although our approach is not phrased in terms of a WKB analysis, and offers a new viewpoint even in the case of a single equation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Approximate Boltzmann distributions in quantum approximate optimization

Approaches to compute or estimate the output probability distributions from the quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) are needed to assess the likelihood it will obtain a quantum computational advantage. We analyze output from QAOA circuits solving 7200 random MaxCut instances, with $n$ = 14–23 qubits and depth parameter $p$ ≤ 12 and find that the average basis state probabilities follow approximate Boltzmann distributions: The average probabilities scale exponentially with their energy (cut value), with a peak at the optimal solution. Furthermore, we describe the rate of exponential scaling or effective temperature in terms of a series with a leading-order term $T$ ~ $C$ min /$n$ $\sqrt{p}$, with $C$ min the optimal solution energy. Using this scaling, we generate approximate output distributions with up to 38 qubits and find these give accurate accounts of important performance metrics in cases we can simulate exactly.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Introducing the embedded random phase approximation: H 2 dissociative adsorption on Cu(111) as an exemplar

The random phase approximation (RPA) as a means of treating electron correlation recently has been shown to outperform standard density functional theory (DFT) approximations in a variety of cases. However, the computational cost of the RPA is substantially more than DFT, especially when aiming to study extended surfaces. Properly accounting for sufficient surface ensemble size, Brillouin zone sampling, and vacuum separation of periodic images in standard periodic-planewave-based DFT code raises the cost to achieve converged results. Here, we show that sub-system embedding schemes enable use of the RPA for modeling heterogeneous reactions at reduced computational cost. Further, we explore two different embedded RPA (emb-RPA) approaches, periodic emb-RPA and cluster emb-RPA. We use the (experimentally and theoretically) well-studied H 2 dissociative adsorption on Cu(111) as our exemplar, and first perform full periodic RPA calculations as a benchmark. The full RPA results match well the semi-empirical barrier fit to experimental observables and others derived from high-level computations, e.g., from recent embedded n-electron valence second order perturbation theory [Zhao et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 16(11), 7078–7088 (2020)] and quantum Monte Carlo [Doblhoff-Dier et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 13(7), 3208–3219 (2017)] simulations. Among the two emb-RPA approaches tested, the cluster emb-RPA accurately reproduces the energy profile (maximum error of 50 meV along the reaction pathway) while reducing the computational cost by approximately two orders of magnitude. We therefore expect that the embedded cluster approach will enable wider RPA implementation in heterogeneous catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Embedded random phase approximation for magnetic systems: H 2 dissociative adsorption on Fe(110)

The random phase approximation (RPA), a method for treating electron correlation, has been shown to be superior to standard density functional theory (DFT) approximations in numerous cases. However, the RPA’s computational cost is substantially higher than that of DFT, particularly restricting its application to extended surfaces. The recently introduced embedded RPA (emb-RPA) approach [Wei et al., J. Chem. Phys. 159(19), 194108 (2023)] reduces this computational cost by approximately two orders of magnitude. While previous applications of emb-RPA focused on non-spin-polarized systems, here we extend the approach to ferromagnetic ones. Unlike other embedded correlated wavefunction methods, such as embedded complete active space self-consistent field theory, emb-RPA is advantageous for spin-polarized systems because the RPA is compatible with unrestricted DFT solutions, which are eigenfunctions of the spin angular momentum operator S z but not the total spin-squared operator S 2 . By applying emb-RPA with specific magnetization constraints, we achieved a speedup of two to three orders of magnitude (one order when accounting for the one-time embedding potential optimization cost) with only small errors (∼50 meV) compared to full periodic RPA. Moreover, emb-RPA significantly reduces the over-binding errors of DFT approximations. In conclusion, we anticipate that the acceleration enabled by the spin-polarized emb-RPA approach will broaden the applicability of RPA to magnetic materials.

Density functional theory↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reducing the Cost of CCSD Basis Set Extrapolation in Ab Initio Computational Thermochemistry

Here, a series of approximations to CCSD contributions in computational model chemistries is presented in the context of kcal mol –1 , kJ mol –1 , and 20 cm –1 theoretical predictions of total atomization energies, benchmarked within the HEAT+CH 4 test suite. A specific set of circumstances where MP2, without empirical scaling, may be used as an effective intermediate in the first two of these accuracy ranges was determined. However, SDQ-MP4, a method long used in pursuit of kcal mol –1 accuracy but relatively unstudied in the subchemical accuracy community, offers significant improvement over the quality of MP2 as a basis-set intermediate at significantly reduced cost compared to CCSD. Given this, we argue for SDQ-MP4 as the de facto CCSD basis-set intermediate in sub-chemical accuracy calculations when CCSD in a desired basis set becomes unaffordable. We additionally report on a “CBS-like” scheme, where MP2 and SDQ-MP4 are used in conjunction to create a “cheap” three-part approximation of large CCSD basis set limits. The data for the CCSD approximation schemes are organized in such a way that model chemistry developers can locate an analog of their current approach for the CCSD basis set limit and explore alternative intermediates that either decrease computational cost or increase computational accuracy. We also show, for a handful of molecules, that SDQ-MP4 shows promise as an effective basis-set intermediate for harmonic and fundamental frequency computations, allowing for zero-point corrections of nearly CCSD(T)/ANO1 quality using simple composite methods that only require CCSD(T)/ANO0.

Thorpe, James H. [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development and Experimental Optimization of High-Temperature Modeling Tools and Methods for Concentrated Solar Power Particle - Systems

A novel, open-source radiative modeling toolset was developed to extend the functionality of particle-based modeling software (e.g. discrete element method (DEM)) to environmental conditions relevant to concentrated solar power applications. This toolset was optimized for deployment on desktop workstations instead of high-performance computing systems, to render such tools more accessible to the research community. Both particle-based modeling and radiative exchange modeling are computationally expensive and often require specialized programming expertise, making these methods cumbersome to use. Recent developments in DEM software by DCS Computing have greatly reduced these challenges, providing a graphical-user-interface based platform and modeling optimization for desktop workstations, HPCs, and cloud computing. The University of Dayton leveraged the experience of DCS Computing in developing a user-friendly, open-source radiative heat transfer expansion for DEM modeling. The University of Dayton DEM+ radiative modeling toolset was developed using a combination of fundamental experimental measurements, modeling, and simplified flow experiments over a range of temperatures and flow conditions. The toolset provides researchers with access to multiple radiative models including an accelerated Monte-Carlo Ray Tracing (application agnostic, highly computationally expensive), an expanded database of distance-based approximations (application limited, computationally light), and a weighted blending of the two methods capable of achieving over 90% reduction in computation time with equivalent accuracy compared to Monte-Carlo Ray Tracing. Through a graphical user interface, users can customize the radiative models to match their desired accuracy and available computational resources, improving access to particle based modeling for the research community. Ceramic sintered bauxite proppants were used in modeling and experimentally as a baseline. Both the radiative heat transfer and flow properties for particulate systems were investigated at elevated temperatures up to 800 °C. The major accomplishments for this work include a verified, open-source radiative modeling toolset to be distributed amongst the research community and the fabrication of three small-scale test facilities to investigate particle behavior and tune DEM flow properties for operation up to 800 °C. The findings have been shared with the research community via conference modeling workshops, deployment of the tools in DCS Computing Aspherix®, and open-source access to the developed radiative modeling tool. The development of next-generation CSP facilities and thermal energy storage systems based on ceramic particles requires providing access to computationally efficient and accurate modeling tools. Particles will experience a wide range of environments (20-800 °C) and handling conditions (dilute curtains or dense packing), requiring specially designed and optimized equipment. Optimizing solid particle physics models and establishing best-practices for particle modeling in CSP environments will assist researchers with designing optimized equipment, accelerating the deployment of more economically-competitive CSP facilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development and assessment of a reactor system prognosis model with physics-guided machine learning

Autonomous control systems provide recommendations to help operators in decision-making during plant operations ranging from normal operation to accident management. An important step of autonomous control is prognosis. In nuclear engineering domain, prognosis is the process of predicting future conditions of a system or equipment based on present signs and symptoms of a fault. The prognosis model allows predicting future reactor states for possible candidate control strategies so that the outcomes can be evaluated to determine the best control strategy. The prognosis model requires representing direct relationships between the symptoms and the predictions. In nuclear engineering, computational simulations are approximate representations of the operation of the real system. However, prognosis with computational simulations requires high computation power and time due to possible large number of scenarios. Necessary computation resources can be reduced with machine learning (ML) approach for fast predictions by building a surrogate function using the simulation data. A critical issue is, ML models are ignorant of physical knowledge, and these models approximate statistical relationships between the system variables. This ignorance can produce results that are inconsistent with physical laws, even if an optimal result is achieved from a mathematical point of view. Physics-guided machine learning (PGML) is an approach to tackle this issue. Here, this work formulates and illustrates a framework to guide development and assessment of the ML-based prognosis model for autonomous control systems. The development of the prognosis model considers the training of a ML model which consists of optimizing many aspects of the ML approach. The assessment of the prognosis model considers training data limitations and uncertainties of the ML approach. Prognosis models with standalone ML and PGML are developed and assessed on the loss-of-flow scenario of Experimental Breeder Reactor II. The results indicate that PGML based prognosis model has the best performance compared to other prognosis models.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Multi-fidelity Gaussian Process Bandit Optimisation

In many scientific and engineering applications, we are tasked with the maximisation of an expensive to evaluate black box function f. Traditional settings for this problem assume just the availability of this single function. However, in many cases, cheap approximations to f may be obtainable. For example, the expensive real world behaviour of a robot can be approximated by a cheap computer simulation. We can use these approximations to eliminate low function value regions cheaply and use the expensive evaluations of f in a small but promising region and speedily identify the optimum. We formalise this task as a multi-fidelity bandit problem where the target function and its approximations are sampled from a Gaussian process. We develop MF-GP-UCB, a novel method based on upper confidence bound techniques. In our theoretical analysis we demonstrate that it exhibits precisely the above behaviour and achieves better bounds on the regret than strategies which ignore multi-fidelity information. Empirically, MF-GP-UCB outperforms such naive strategies and other multi-fidelity methods on several synthetic and real experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

NLML: A Deep Neural Network Emulator for the Exact Nonlinear Interactions in a Wind Wave Model

Nonlinear wave interactions describe the resonant energy transfer between wave components, playing a fundamental role in the evolution of ocean wave spectra. Nonlinear wave interactions significantly influence wave growth and development, making them essential for accurate wave modeling. However, resolving the full six-dimensional Boltzmann integral of the exact nonlinear wave interactions (Webb-Resio-Tracy method, WRT) is computationally expensive, limiting its application in real-time operational wave forecasting and for research purposes. Current approximations, such as the Discrete Interaction Approximation (DIA), prioritize computational speed over accuracy, resulting in significant errors in wave mean parameters. Here, we introduce NLML, a machine learning (ML) emulator designed to approximate the exact nonlinear wave interactions within WAVEWATCH III (WW3), with the goal of achieving the accuracy of WRT while maintaining the stability and computational speed of DIA. By leveraging GPU capabilities such as half precision inference, we achieved substantial speedups, up to 136x mathematical equation faster than the WRT and only a modest 1.04x mathematical equation slowdown relative to DIA, while achieving 2x mathematical equation the accuracy of DIA in global wave spectral energy and mean wave parameters, with up to 7x mathematical equation higher accuracy in some regions. Unlike previous ML approaches, NLML maintained inherent stability throughout model integration in a standalone, year-long WW3 simulation, without requiring additional constraints. Our new ML parameterization bridges the gap between accuracy and efficiency, offering a promising alternative for improving wave modeling in operational settings and research purposes.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2024

Design of experiments to spectroscopically characterize radiation flow in stochastic media

Precise characterization of experimental radiation flow is required to validate the high energy density physics models, numerical methods, and codes that are used to simulate radiation-hydrodynamics phenomena such as thermal radiation transport in stochastic media. The Cassio code is used to simulate thermal radiation flow through inhomogeneous, stochastic-media-foam configurations containing optically thick clumps dispersed within an optically thin background aerogel. Cassio can model small inhomogeneous problems directly, but most problems require approximations to meet computer limitations on run-times and memory usage. Various examples of these approximations are methods that produce, in one calculation, an ensemble-averaged solution and associated standard deviation; reduced spatial dimensionality with approximate geometries; and full material homogenization with no geometric detail. Cassio simulations are used to design experiments at the OMEGA-60 Laser Facility that can measure the radiation flow using the spatially resolved COAX absorption spectroscopy diagnostic. The experimental platforms flow radiation through foam targets ranging from a background-only aerogel, to a single configuration of a specified stochastic medium, to a fully homogenized foam of the background and clump materials. Under constant total clump mass, larger clumps (here, larger than 10 μm diameter) will mix more slowly with the background such that the bulk radiation flow is faster than it would be in a fully homogenized material. The COAX platform can be used to infer temperature and density profiles in both the background material and clumps, simultaneously, and therefore to differentiate radiation flow in a range of stochastic and homogeneous media.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Data Set Bias and Decision Support with Predictive Uncertainty Through Bayesian Approximations and Convolutional Neural Networks

Individual seismic catalogs can contain multiscale observations from fault level to global scales and associated waveforms from discrete events reflect crustal structure across many different scales and locations. Seismic network aperture, geographic location, and observation distance may not provide informative guidance or intuition on how different catalogs will behave across models trained under different conditions. We rely on uncertainty to provide guardrails for when to trust model decisions, but understanding when our uncertainty is trustworthy is an open challenge. Here, in this work, we explore Bayesian approximation methods for assigning predictive uncertainty in seismic event classification problems. We find that computationally expensive Bayesian approximations do not outperform simple ensemble methods. We also find that when exploiting multiple seismic event catalogs, joint training with data from all the catalogs combined with Bayesian approximations and supervised training for classification can obscure bias and result in less robust uncertainty while also not providing substantial performance benefits compared to training individual models for each catalog.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Inner Approximation of Minkowski Sums: A Union-Based Approach and Applications to Aggregated Energy Resources: Preprint

This paper develops and compares algorithms to compute the inner approximation of Minkowski sum of convex polytopes. We consider flexibility from distributed re- sources, such as solar photovoltaic (PV) inverters, demand side resources, etc. A polytopic representation of a single inverter's feasible operating region is proposed first. The aggregate flexibility can be computed using the Minkowski sum. Homothet and Zonotope-based approaches have been explored in literature. We show that as heterogeneity increases, such approaches lead to conservative estimates. Hence, we show how to exploit union-based Minkowski sum computation through successive homothetic decomposition of polytopes. While the union-based approach can lead to dimensionality issues, we show how to limit the complexity by predefining a candidate set. Efficiency, accuracy and trade-offs have been analyzed. Numerical examples have been presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

The revised FLORIDyn model: implementation of heterogeneous flow and the Gaussian wake

In this paper, a new version of the FLOw Redirection and Induction Dynamics (FLORIDyn) model is presented. The new model uses the three-dimensional parametric Gaussian FLORIS model and can provide dynamic wind farm simulations at a low computational cost under heterogeneous and changing wind conditions. Both FLORIS and FLORIDyn are parametric models which can be used to simulate wind farms, evaluate controller performance and can serve as a control-oriented model. One central element in which they differ is in their representation of flow dynamics: FLORIS neglects these and provides a computationally very cheap approximation of the mean wind farm flow. FLORIDyn defines a framework which utilizes this low computational cost of FLORIS to simulate basic wake dynamics. This is achieved by creating so-called observation points (OPs) at each time step at the rotor plane which inherit the turbine state. In this work, we develop the initial FLORIDyn framework further considering multiple aspects. The underlying FLORIS wake model is replaced by a Gaussian wake model. The distribution and characteristics of the OPs are adapted to account for the new parametric model but also to take complex flow conditions into account. To achieve this, a mathematical approach is developed to combine the parametric model and the changing, heterogeneous world conditions and link them with each OP. We also present a computationally lightweight wind field model to allow for a simulation environment in which heterogeneous flow conditions are possible. FLORIDyn is compared to Simulator for Offshore Wind Farm Applications (SOWFA) simulations in three- and nine-turbine cases under static and changing environmental conditions. The results show a good agreement with the timing of the impact of upstream state changes on downstream turbines. They also show a good agreement in terms of how wakes are displaced by wind direction changes and when the resulting velocity deficit is experienced by downstream turbines. A good fit of the mean generated power is ensured by the underlying FLORIS model. In the three-turbine case, FLORIDyn simulates 4 s simulation time in 24.49 ms computational time. The resulting new FLORIDyn model proves to be a computationally attractive and capable tool for model-based dynamic wind farm control.

17 WIND ENERGY↗