Arctic Soil Governs Whether Climate Change Drives Global Losses or Gains in Soil Carbon
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
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Thermal modeling of three lakes within the continuous permafrost zone in Alaska using the LAKE 2.0 model
Abstract. Lakes in the Arctic are important reservoirs of heat with much lower albedo in summer and greater absorption of solar radiation than surrounding tundra vegetation. In the winter, lakes that do not freeze to their bed have a mean annual bed temperature >0 ∘C in an otherwise frozen landscape. Under climate warming scenarios, we expect Arctic lakes to accelerate thawing of underlying permafrost due to warming water temperatures in the summer and winter. Previous studies of Arctic lakes have focused on ice cover and thickness, the ice decay process, catchment hydrology, lake water balance, and eddy covariance measurements, but little work has been done in the Arctic to model lake heat balance. We applied the LAKE 2.0 model to simulate water temperatures in three Arctic lakes in northern Alaska over several years and tested the sensitivity of the model to several perturbations of input meteorological variables (precipitation, shortwave radiation, and air temperature) and several model parameters (water vertical resolution, sediment vertical resolution, depth of soil column, and temporal resolution). The LAKE 2.0 model is a one-dimensional model that explicitly solves vertical profiles of water state variables on a grid. We used a combination of meteorological data from local and remote weather stations, as well as data derived from remote sensing, to drive the model. We validated modeled water temperatures with data of observed lake water temperatures at several depths over several years for each lake. Our validation of the LAKE 2.0 model is a necessary step toward modeling changes in Arctic lake ice regimes, lake heat balance, and thermal interactions with permafrost. The sensitivity analysis shows us that lake water temperature is not highly sensitive to small changes in air temperature or precipitation, while changes in shortwave radiation and large changes in precipitation produced larger effects. Snow depth and lake ice strongly affect water temperatures during the frozen season, which dominates the annual thermal regime of Arctic lakes. These findings suggest that reductions in lake ice thickness and duration could lead to more heat storage by lakes and enhanced permafrost degradation.
Clark, Jason A. (ORCID:0000000248105261)↗
Lower viral evolutionary pressure under stable versus fluctuating conditions in subzero Arctic brines
Climate change threatens Earth’s ice-based ecosystems which currently offer archives and eco-evolutionary experiments in the extreme. Arctic cryopeg brine (marine-derived, within permafrost) and sea ice brine, similar in subzero temperature and high salinity but different in temporal stability, are inhabited by microbes adapted to these extreme conditions. However, little is known about their viruses (community composition, diversity, interaction with hosts, or evolution) or how they might respond to geologically stable cryopeg versus fluctuating sea ice conditions. We used long- and short-read viromics and metatranscriptomics to study viruses in Arctic cryopeg brine, sea ice brine, and underlying seawater, recovering 11,088 vOTUs (~species-level taxonomic unit), a 4.4-fold increase of known viruses in these brines. More specifically, the long-read-powered viromes doubled the number of longer (≥25 kb) vOTUs generated and recovered more hypervariable regions by >5-fold compared to short-read viromes. Distribution assessment, by comparing to known viruses in public databases, supported that cryopeg brine viruses were of marine origin yet distinct from either sea ice brine or seawater viruses, while 94% of sea ice brine viruses were also present in seawater. A virus-encoded, ecologically important exopolysaccharide biosynthesis gene was identified, and many viruses (~half of metatranscriptome-inferred “active” vOTUs) were predicted as actively infecting the dominant microbial genera Marinobacter and Polaribacter in cryopeg and sea ice brines, respectively. Evolutionarily, microdiversity (intra-species genetic variations) analyses suggested that viruses within the stable cryopeg brine were under significantly lower evolutionary pressures than those in the fluctuating sea ice environment, while many sea ice brine virus-tail genes were under positive selection, indicating virus-host co-evolutionary arms races. Our results confirmed the benefits of long-read-powered viromics in understanding the environmental virosphere through significantly improved genomic recovery, expanding viral discovery and the potential for biological inference. Evidence of viruses actively infecting the dominant microbes in subzero brines and modulating host metabolism underscored the potential impact of viruses on these remote and underexplored extreme ecosystems. Microdiversity results shed light on different strategies viruses use to evolve and adapt when extreme conditions are stable versus fluctuating. Together, these findings verify the value of long-read-powered viromics and provide foundational data on viral evolution and virus-microbe interactions in Earth’s destabilized and rapidly disappearing cryosphere.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events?
Abstract Pronounced changes in the Arctic environment add a new potential driver of anomalous weather patterns in midlatitudes that affect billions of people. Recent studies of these Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages, however, state inconsistent conclusions. A source of uncertainty arises from the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Thermodynamic forcing by a rapidly warming Arctic contributes to weather events through changing surface heat fluxes and large-scale temperature and pressure gradients. But internal shifts in atmospheric dynamics—the variability of the location, strength, and character of the jet stream, blocking, and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV)—obscure the direct causes and effects. It is important to understand these associated processes to differentiate Arctic-forced variability from natural variability. For example in early winter, reduced Barents/Kara Seas sea-ice coverage may reinforce existing atmospheric teleconnections between the North Atlantic/Arctic and central Asia, and affect downstream weather in East Asia. Reduced sea ice in the Chukchi Sea can amplify atmospheric ridging of high pressure near Alaska, influencing downstream weather across North America. In late winter southward displacement of the SPV, coupled to the troposphere, leads to weather extremes in Eurasia and North America. Combined tropical and sea ice conditions can modulate the variability of the SPV. Observational evidence for Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages continues to accumulate, along with understanding of connections with pre-existing climate states. Relative to natural atmospheric variability, sea-ice loss alone has played a secondary role in Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages; the full influence of Arctic amplification remains uncertain.
Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
On the additivity of climate responses to the volcanic and solar forcing in the early 19th century
The early 19th century was the coldest period over the past 500 years, when strong tropical volcanic events and a solar minimum coincided. The 1809 unidentified eruption and the 1815 Tambora eruption happened consecutively during the Dalton minimum of solar irradiance; however, the relative role of the two forcing (volcano and solar) agents is still unclear. In this study, we examine the responses from a set of early 19th century simulations with combined and separated volcanic and solar forcing agents, as suggested in the protocol for the past1000 experiment of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project – Phase 4 (PMIP4). From 20-member ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM1.2-LR), we find that the volcano- and solar-induced surface cooling is additive in the global mean/large scale, regardless of combining or separating the forcing agents. The two solar reconstructions (SATIRE (Spectral and Total Irradiance REconstruction-Millennia model) and PMOD (Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos)) contribute to a cooling before and after 1815 of ~0.05 and ~0.15 K monthly average near-surface air cooling, respectively, indicating a limited solar contribution to the early 19th century cold period. The volcanic events provide the main cooling contributions, inducing a surface cooling that peaks at ~0.82 K for the 1809 event and ~1.35 K for Tambora. After the Tambora eruption, the temperature in most regions increases toward climatology largely within 5 years, along with the reduction of volcanic forcing. In the northern extratropical oceans, the temperature increases slowly at a constant rate until 1830, which is related to the reduction of seasonality and the concurrent changes in Arctic sea-ice extent. The albedo feedback of Arctic sea ice is found to be the main contributor to the Arctic amplification of the cooling signal. Several non-additive responses to solar and volcanic forcing happen on regional scales. In the atmosphere, the stratospheric polar vortex tends to strengthen when combining both volcano and solar forcing, even though the two forcing agents separately induce opposite-sign changes in stratospheric temperatures and zonal winds. In the ocean, when combining the two forcings, additional surface cold water propagates to the northern extratropics from the additional solar cooling in the tropics, which results in regional cooling along the propagation. Overall, this study not only quantifies the surface responses from combinations of the volcano and solar forcing, but also highlights the components that cannot be simply added from the responses of the individual forcing agents, indicating that a relatively small forcing agent (such as solar in early 19th century) can impact the response from the large forcing (such as the 1815 Tambora eruption) when considering regional climates.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Global Sensitivity Analysis Using the Ultra‐Low Resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model
Abstract For decades, Arctic temperatures have increased twice as fast as average global temperatures. As a first step toward quantifying parametric uncertainty in Arctic climate, we performed a variance‐based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled, ultra‐low resolution (ULR) configuration of version 1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). Specifically, we quantified the sensitivity of six quantities of interests (QOIs), which characterize changes in Arctic climate over a 75 year period, to uncertainties in nine model parameters spanning the sea ice, atmosphere, and ocean components of E3SMv1. Sensitivity indices for each QOI were computed with a Gaussian process emulator using 139 random realizations of the random parameters and fixed preindustrial forcing. Uncertainties in the atmospheric parameters in the Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) scheme were found to have the most impact on sea ice status and the larger Arctic climate. Our results demonstrate the importance of conducting sensitivity analyses with fully coupled climate models. The ULR configuration makes such studies computationally feasible today due to its low computational cost. When advances in computational power and modeling algorithms enable the tractable use of higher‐resolution models, our results will provide a baseline that can quantify the impact of model resolution on the accuracy of sensitivity indices. Moreover, the confidence intervals provided by our study, which we used to quantify the impact of the number of model evaluations on the accuracy of sensitivity estimates, have the potential to inform the computational resources needed for future sensitivity studies.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Chemical Loss of Polar Ozone: Present Understanding and Remaining Uncertainties
Not long after the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, it was established that halogen compounds, supplied to the atmosphere mainly by anthropogenic activities, are the primary driver of polar ozone loss. We will briefly review the chemical mechanisms that cause polar ozone loss and the early evidence showing the key role played by anthropogenic halogens. Recently, stratospheric halogen loading has leveled off, due to adherence to the Montreal Protocol and its amendments that has essentially banned CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) and other halocarbons. We will describe recent reports of the first stage of recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole (e.g., a statistically significant slowing of the downward trend), associated with the leveling off of stratospheric halogens. Despite this degree of understanding, we will discuss the tendency of photochemical models to underestimate the observed rate of polar ozone loss and a hypothesis that has recently been put forth that might resolve this discrepancy. Finally, we will briefly discuss chemical loss of Arctic ozone, which
climate change↗
Reactive Nitrogen, Ozone and Ozone Production in the Arctic Troposphere and the Impact of Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange
We analyze the aircraft observations obtained during the Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellite (ARCTAS) mission together with the GEOS-5 CO simulation to examine O3 and NOy in the Arctic and sub-Arctic region and their source attribution. Using a number of marker tracers and their probability density distributions, we distinguish various air masses from the background troposphere and examine their contribution to NOx, O3, and O3 production in the Arctic troposphere. The background Arctic troposphere has mean O3 of approximately 60 ppbv and NOx of approximately 25 pptv throughout spring and summer with CO decreases from approximately 145 ppbv in spring to approximately 100 ppbv in summer. These observed CO, NOx and O3 mixing ratios are not notably different from the values measured during the 1988 ABLE-3A and the 2002 TOPSE field campaigns despite the significant changes in the past two decades in processes that could have changed the Arctic tropospheric composition. Air masses associated with stratosphere-troposphere exchange are present throughout the mid and upper troposphere during spring and summer. These air masses with mean O3 concentration of 140-160 ppbv are the most important direct sources of O3 in the Arctic troposphere. In addition, air of stratospheric origin is the only notable driver of net O3 formation in the Arctic due to its sustainable high NOx (75 pptv in spring and 110 pptv in summer) and NOy (approximately 800 pptv in spring and approximately 1100 pptv in summer) levels. The ARCTAS measurements present observational evidence suggesting significant conversion of nitrogen from HNO3 to NOx and then to PAN (a net formation of approximately 120 pptv PAN) in summer when air of stratospheric origin is mixed with tropospheric background during stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. These findings imply that an adequate representation of stratospheric O3 and NOy input are essential in accurately simulating O3 and NOx photochemistry as well as the atmospheric budget of PAN in tropospheric chemistry transport models of the Arctic. Anthropogenic and biomass burning pollution plumes observed during ARCTAS show highly elevated hydrocarbons and NOy (mostly in the form of NOx and PAN), but do not contribute significantly to O3 in the Arctic troposphere except in some of the aged biomass burning plumes sampled during spring. Convection and/or lightning influences are negligible sources of O3 in the Arctic troposphere but can have significant impacts in the upper troposphere in the continental sub-Arctic during summer.
Liang, Q.↗
Ozone Loss in the Arctic Stratosphere as Observed by Match
We present box model calculations of ozone loss rates corresponding to the results of the Match experiment 1991/92.
ozone stratosphere climate change arctic stratosph↗
The Rapidly Shrinking Arctic Multiyear Ice Cover
Among the most dramatic changes in the Arctic in recent years was the precipitous decline in the perennial ice cover. In 2007, the perennial ice area was 37% lower than climatological average and 28% lower than the previous low established in 2005. In 2008, the perennial ice recovered somewhat because of colder global temperatures but by only about 6% of average value. The trend in the ice area covered by perennial ice is now -12.5% per decade using data from 1979 to 2009 which compared to a previous report of -9% per decade derived from 1979 to 2000 data indicates an accelerated decline. To gain insight into the phenomenon, we studied the mUltiyear ice cover as detected by satellite sensor in winter. The multiyear ice as detected in winter represents ice that has generally survived two summers and therefore the thicker component of the perennial ice cover. Analysis of the thicker multiyear ice types indicates an even more rapid decline of 17% per decade. Such decline in the thick component of the Arctic ice cover that normally survives the summer means an even more vulnerable perennial ice cover. Much of the decline occurred in the western region of the Arctic Basin (Le., Chukchi and Beaufort Seas) where the open water area has been increasing by about 35% per decade. Such increase in low albedo ice free region causes the absorption of considerably more solar heat in the Arctic basin. This causes further decline in the ice cover in a process called ice-albedo feedback. A manifestation of such process is the observed trend in SST in the basin of about 0.5 + 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade as derived from satellite data
Comiso, Josefino C.↗
Soil pore network response to freeze-thaw cycles in permafrost aggregates
This dataset contains data used for the paper "Pore network response to freeze-thaw cycles in permafrost aggregates". The Related References field will be updated with a full citation when available.Climate change in Arctic landscapes may increase freeze-thaw frequency within the active layer as well as newly thawed permafrost. A highly disruptive process, freeze-thaw can deform soil pores and alter the architecture of the soil pore network with varied impacts to water transport and retention, redox conditions, and microbial activity. Our objective was to investigate how freeze-thaw cycles impacted the pore network of newly thawed permafrost aggregates to improve understanding of what type of transformations can be expected from warming Arctic landscapes. We measured the impact of freeze-thaw on pore morphology, pore throat diameter distribution, and pore connectivity with X-ray computed tomography (XCT) using six permafrost aggregates with sizes of 2.5 cm3 from a mineral soil horizon (Bw; 28-50 cm depths) in Toolik, Alaska. Freeze-thaw cycles were performed using a laboratory incubation consisting of five freeze-thaw cycles (-10˚C to 20˚C) over five weeks. Our findings indicated decreasing spatial connectivity of the pore network across all aggregates with higher frequencies of singly connected pores following freeze-thaw. Water-filled pores that were connected to the pore network decreased in volume while the overall connected pore volumetric fraction was not affected. Shifts in the pore throat diameter distribution were mostly observed in pore throats ranges of 100 microns or less with no corresponding changes to the pore shape factor of pore throats. Responses of the pore network to freeze-thaw varied with aggregate, suggesting that initial pore morphology may play a role in driving freeze-thaw response. Our research suggests that freeze-thaw alters the microenvironment of permafrost aggregates during the incipient stage of deformation following permafrost thaw, impacting soil properties and function in Arctic landscapes undergoing transition. This dataset contains a compressed (.zip) archive of the data and R scripts used for this manuscript. The dataset includes files in .csv format, which can be accessed and processed using MS Excel or R. This archive can also be accessed on GitHub at https://github.com/Erin-Rooney/XCT-freezethaw (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.5816355).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Process Drivers, Inter-model Spread, and a Path Forward: What Do We Know About Arctic Amplification?
Over the recent decades, rapid changes have been observed in the Arctic resulting from enhanced surface warming in the Arctic relative to the rest of the globe, a phenomenon called Arctic Amplification. While surface-based amplification of Arctic warming in response to increased CO2 has been established. The driving mechanisms, relevant processes, and the relative roles of local and remote mechanisms to Arctic Amplification remain unclear. Research over the last decade has made it clear that coupling between the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean play a key role in Arctic Amplification. This presentation summarizes recent research on the fundamental role that atmosphere-sea ice-ocean interactions and energy exchanges play in driving Arctic Amplification, how these interactions manifest as radiative climate feedbacks, and how these processes influence the differences in the projected Arctic climate change across CMIP5 and 6. We hypothesize that models that simulate larger warming do so by generating a larger local atmospheric circulation response that more effectively redistributes energy drawn from the ocean in sea ice retreat regions Arctic-wide and contributing to a larger increase in downwelling long wave radiation. This process is also fundamentally tied to the Arctic lapse rate feedback.
Patrick Charles Taylor↗
Process drivers, inter-model spread, and a path forward: What do we know about Arctic Amplification?
Over the recent decades, rapid changes have been observed in the Arctic resulting from enhanced surface warming in the Arctic relative to the rest of the globe, a phenomenon called Arctic Amplification. While surface-based amplification of Arctic warming in response to increased CO2 has been established. The driving mechanisms, relevant processes, and the relative roles of local and remote mechanisms to Arctic Amplification remain unclear. Research over the last decade has made it clear that coupling between the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean play a key role in Arctic Amplification. This presentation summarizes recent research on the fundamental role that atmosphere-sea ice-ocean interactions and energy exchanges play in driving Arctic Amplification, how these interactions manifest as radiative climate feedbacks, and how these processes influence the differences in the projected Arctic climate change across CMIP5 and 6. We hypothesize that models that simulate larger warming do so by generating a larger local atmospheric circulation response that more effectively redistributes energy drawn from the ocean in sea ice retreat regions Arctic-wide and contributing to a larger increase in downwelling long wave radiation. This process is also fundamentally tied to the Arctic lapse rate feedback.
Arctic amplification↗
Process drivers, inter-model spread, and a path forward: What do we know about Arctic Amplification?
Over the recent decades, rapid changes have been observed in the Arctic resulting from enhanced surface warming in the Arctic relative to the rest of the globe, a phenomenon called Arctic Amplification. While surface-based amplification of Arctic warming in response to increased CO2 has been established. The driving mechanisms, relevant processes, and the relative roles of local and remote mechanisms to Arctic Amplification remain unclear. Research over the last decade has made it clear that coupling between the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean play a key role in Arctic Amplification. This presentation summarizes recent research on the fundamental role that atmosphere-sea ice-ocean interactions and energy exchanges play in driving Arctic Amplification, how these interactions manifest as radiative climate feedbacks, and how these processes influence the differences in the projected Arctic climate change across CMIP5 and 6. We hypothesize that models that simulate larger warming do so by generating a larger local atmospheric circulation response that more effectively redistributes energy drawn from the ocean in sea ice retreat regions Arctic-wide and contributing to a larger increase in downwelling long wave radiation. This process is also fundamentally tied to the Arctic lapse rate feedback.
Patrick C. Taylor↗
E3SM‐Arctic: Regionally Refined Coupled Model for Advanced Understanding of Arctic Systems Interactions
Earth system models are essential tools for climate projections, but coarse resolutions limit regional accuracy, especially in the Arctic. Regionally refined meshes (RRMs) enhance resolution in key areas while maintaining computational efficiency. This paper provides an overview of the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2.1 with an Arctic RRM, hereafter referred to as E3SMv2.1-Arctic, for the atmosphere (25 km), land (25 km), and ocean/ice (10 km) components. We evaluate the atmospheric component and its interactions with land, ocean, and cryosphere by comparing the RRM (E3SM2.1-Arctic) historical simulations (1950–2014) with the uniform low-resolution (LR) counterpart, reanalysis products, and observational data sets. The RRM generally reduces biases in the LR model, improving simulations of Arctic large-scale mean fields, such as precipitation, atmospheric circulation, clouds, atmospheric river frequency, and sea ice thickness. However, it introduces a seasonally dependent surface air temperature bias, reducing the LR cold bias in summer but enhancing the LR warm bias in winter, which contributes to the underestimated winter sea ice area and volume. Radiative feedback analysis shows similar climate feedback strengths in both model configurations, with the RRM exhibiting a more positive surface albedo feedback and contributing to a stronger surface warming than LR. These findings underscore the importance of high-resolution modeling for advancing our understanding of Arctic climate changes and their broader global impacts, although some persistent biases appear to be independent of model resolution at 10–100 km scales.
Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)↗
Limited increases in Arctic offshore oil and gas production with climate change and the implications for energy markets
Climate change impacts on sea ice thickness is opening access to offshore Arctic resources. The degree to which these resources are exploited will depend on sea-ice conditions, technology costs, international energy markets, and the regulatory environment. We use an integrated human-Earth system model, GCAM, to explore the effects of spatial–temporal patterns of sea-ice loss under climate change on future Arctic offshore oil and gas extraction, considering interactions with global energy markets and emission reduction scenarios. We find that under SSP5, a “fossil-fueled development” scenario, the effects of sea-ice loss are larger for Arctic offshore oil production than gas. Under SSP5, future extraction of Arctic offshore oil and gas through 2100 adds roughly 0.8–2.6 EJ/year to oil and gas markets but does not have large impacts on global oil and gas markets. Surprisingly, a low-carbon scenario results in greater Arctic offshore oil production to offset the more emissions-intensive unconventional oil production.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Tropical and Arctic Cloud Observations From CALIPSO Between 2008-2014 and its Implications
There has been studies (e.g., Schweiger, 2004) suggest significant increase of Arctic clouds during the last three decades, especially in the western Arctic region. Such studies are based on passive remote sensing that are not highly reliable due to the lack of contrasts in temperature and reflectance between clouds and snow/ice surfaces. Changes in the Arctic clouds can be evaluated more accurately using the space-based lidar measurements from CALIPSO during the last nine years since CALIPSO can provide much more accurate detection and classification of both water and ice clouds in the Arctic. Time series of Arctic cloud properties (e.g., cloud fraction, cloud thermodynamic phase, water cloud depolarization ratio and droplet number concentration) from CALIPSO data are analyzed in this study. This study reveals the changes in both cloud fraction and cloud microphysical properties during the last nine years when CALIPSO data are available. We will evaluate the changes in Arctic cloud fraction and cloud microphysical properties, their seasonal and spatial characteristics and the potential impact on the energy budget and the climate of the Arctic.
Hu, Yongxiang↗
More frequent atmospheric rivers slow the seasonal recovery of Arctic sea ice
In recent decades, Arctic sea ice coverage experienced a drastic decline in winter, when sea ice is expected to recover following the melting season. It is unclear to what extent atmospheric processes such as atmospheric rivers (ARs), intense corridors of moisture transport, contribute to this reduced recovery of sea ice. Here, in this study, using observations and climate model simulations we find a robust frequency increase in ARs in early winter over the Barents-Kara Seas and the central Arctic (ABK) between 1979 and 2021. The moisture carried by more frequent ARs has intensified surface downward longwave radiation and rainfall, caused stronger melting of thin, fragile ice cover, and slowed the seasonal recovery of sea ice, accounting for 34% of the sea ice cover decline in ABK. A series of model ensemble experiments suggests that, in addition to a uniform AR increase in response to anthropogenic warming, tropical Pacific variability also contributes to the observed Arctic AR changes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗