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NASA NTRS2019

Computational Bayesian Methods Applied to Complex Problems in Bio and Astro Statistics

In this dissertation we apply computational Bayesian methods to three distinct problems. In the first chapter, we address the issue of unrealistic covariance matrices used to estimate collision probabilities. We model covariance matrices with a Bayesian Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, which we fit with Gibbs sampling. In the second chapter, we are interested in determining the sample sizes necessary to achieve a particular interval width and establish non-inferiority in the analysis of prevalences using two fallible tests. To this end, we use a third order asymptotic approximation. In the third chapter, we wish to synthesize evidence across multiple domains in measurements taken longitudinally across time, featuring a substantial amount of structurally missing data, and fit the model with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in a simulation to analyze how estimates of a parameter of interest change across sample sizes.

Elrod, Chris↗
NASA NTRS2021

Astro-biological Exploration of Ocean Worlds, Enabled by an RPS Inside a Pressure Vessel

Exploring Ocean and Ice Worlds could help us to understand the origin and evolution of life in the universe. In our solar system we have identified six Ocean and Ice Worlds, namely Earth, Europa, Ganymede, Callisto, Enceladus, and Titan. Other potential targets include Dione, Triton, and Pluto. As documented in the Planetary Decadal Survey [1] and the NASA Roadmap to Ocean Worlds [2], these worlds are compelling science destinations, with oceans situated below their tens of kilometers thick ice shells. To reach them we need a new exploration paradigm with novel technological solutions. Key technological challenges revolve around the power for the probe and for melting, as well as protecting the payload against the extreme environments, including high pressure, low temperature, corrosion, and radiation. Far away from the Sun, and melted into the ice, we may only rely on long-lived internal power generation. Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) with either static or dynamic conversion, utilizing the heat of decaying Plutonium-238, could be good candidates. We need suitable payloads that are protected and could survive the extreme environments, as well as enabling power and thermal systems for melting through the ice shield and to swim in the ocean below the ice. RPS could support the probe’s instruments and sub-systems, as well as provide a heat source for melting the ice while keeping the components at operating temperatures. Mitigating the external pressure while immersing inside the ice shell, and in the ocean, would require a new RPS design that operates inside a Pressure Vessel. In our paper, we will discuss general mission architecture trades and the sizing of a next generation RPS housed in a pressure vessel, broadly applicable to any of the Ocean Worlds satellites of interest. Through a technology focused approach, we address interconnected design and mission architecture aspects, including considerations for: the RPS and the Pressure Vessel; extreme environmental constraints; g-load tolerance; power and thermal systems sizing for science measurements; spacecraft operations through all mission phases; subsurface mobility; and planetary protection. The findings will inform the science community on instrument accommodation possibilities; the mission planning community on possible mission concepts; and the RPS development community on the science driven technology considerations.

Donitz, Benjamin P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of the spaceflight cardiovascular risk using the clinical prediction model Astro-CHARM and the NASA Radiation Risk Model

- Exposure to space radiation may pose a risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) during and after spaceflight. - The CVD risk should be quantified to plan future long-duration space missions such as the manned flight to Mars. - Assessing CVD risk is complicated by its multifactorial nature, where an individual’s risk is strongly influenced by risk factors such as family history, blood pressure, and lipid profiles. - In the NASA Space Radiation Risk Model, the metrics of radiation exposure-induced cases (REIC) and radiation exposure-induced death (REID) are used to quantify the risk attributable to radiation over a lifetime after exposure.

Ianik Plante↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of the Spaceflight Cardiovascular Disease Risk using the Clinical Prediction Model Astro-Charm and the NASA Radiation Risk Model

Exposure to space radiation and other spaceflight hazards may pose an increased risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) during and after spaceflight [1], that should be quantified to plan future long-duration space missions such as the flight to Mars. The first CVD clinical prediction models (CPMs) for individuals were developed by the Framingham Heart Study investigators in the 1960’s. Since then, many CPMs have been developed and refined. The CPMs consider cardiovascular risk factors such as blood pressure, diabetes, cholesterol, and smoking. As there is a relationship between radiation-induced CVD risk and the background (non-exposed) CVD risk, it is possible to use CPMs to calculate a personalized risk for astronauts.

I. Plante↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integration of the Cardiovascular Clinical Risk Prediction Model Astro-CHARM Into the NASA Radiation Risk Model

Space radiation poses an increased risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) during and after spaceflight, that should be quantified to plan future space missions such as the flight to Mars. The radiation-induced CVD risk is evaluated using a linear no-threshold dose response excess relative risk (ERR) model, so that the risk is function of the radiation dose and of the background (i.e., non-exposed) incidence rate. The background CVD risk can be evaluated using clinical prediction models (CPMs). The first CPMs developed in the 1960’s have identified CVD risk factors such as blood pressure, diabetes, cholesterol, and smoking. In this work, the steps used to integrate the CVD risk provided by a CPM into the NASA Radiation Risk Model are described. Simulation results calculated using available data for relevant mission scenarios are also shown, and the challenges in CVD risk predictions are discussed.

I Plante↗
NASA NTRS2024

Integration of the Cardiovascular Risk Model Astro-CHARM in the NASA Radiation Risk Model

Space radiation poses an increased risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) during and after spaceflight, that should be quantified to plan future space missions such as the flight to Mars. The radiation-induced CVD risk is evaluated using a linear no-threshold dose response excess relative risk (ERR) model, so that the risk is function of the radiation dose and of the background (i.e., non-exposed) incidence rate. The background CVD risk can be evaluated using clinical prediction models (CPMs). The first CPMs developed in the 1960’s have identified CVD risk factors such as blood pressure, diabetes, cholesterol, and smoking. In this work, the steps used to integrate the CVD risk provided by a CPM into the NASA Radiation Risk Model are described. Simulation results calculated using available data for relevant mission scenarios are also shown, and the challenges in CVD risk predictions are discussed.

Space radiation↗
NASA NTRS2010

IXO-XMS LVSID Anti-Coincidence Detector

This document describes a high-TRL backup implementation of the anti-coincidence detector for the IXO/XMS instrument. The backup detector, hereafter referred to as the low-voltage silicon ionization detector (LVSID), has been successfully flown on Astro-E2 (Suzaku)/XRS and is currently being implemented, without significant changes, on the Astro-H/SXS instrument. The LVSID anti-coincidence detector on Astro-E2/XRS operated successfully for almost 2 years, and was not affected by the loss of liquid helium in that instrument. The LVSID continues to operate after almost 5 years on-orbit (LEO, 550 km) but with slightly increased noise following the expected depletion of solid Neon after 22 months. The noise of the device is increased after the loss of sNe due to thermally induced bias and readout noise. No radiation damage, or off-nominal affects have been observed with the LVSID on-orbit during the Astro-E2/XRS program. A detector die from the same fabrication run will be used on the Astro-H/SXS mission. The LVSID technology and cryogenic JFET readout system is thus TRL 9. The technology is described in detail in section 2. The IXO/XMS "backup-up" anti-coincidence detector is a small array of LVSID detectors that are almost identical to those employed for Astro -E2/XRS as described in this document. The readout system is identical and, infact would use the same design as the Astro -E2/XRS JFET amplifier module (19 channels) essentially without changes except for its mechanical mount. The changes required for the IXO/XMS LVSID array are limited to the mounting of the LVSID detectors, and the mechanical mounting of the JFET amplifier sub-assembly. There is no technical development needed for the IXO/XMS implementation and the technology is ready for detailed design-work leading to PDR. The TRL level is thus at least 6, and possibly higher. Characteristics of an IXO/XMS LVSID anti-co detector are given in Table 1 and described in detail in section 3.

Porter, Scott F.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Orbital Express Advanced Video Guidance Sensor

In May 2007 the first US fully autonomous rendezvous and capture was successfully performed by DARPA's Orbital Express (OE) mission. Since then, the Boeing ASTRO spacecraft and the Ball Aerospace NEXTSat have performed multiple rendezvous and docking maneuvers to demonstrate the technologies needed for satellite servicing. MSFC's Advanced Video Guidance Sensor (AVGS) is a primary near-field proximity operations sensor integrated into ASTRO's Autonomous Rendezvous and Capture Sensor System (ARCSS), which provides relative state knowledge to the ASTRO GN&C system. This paper provides an overview of the AVGS sensor flying on Orbital Express, and a summary of the ground testing and on-orbit performance of the AVGS for OE. The AVGS is a laser-based system that is capable of providing range and bearing at midrange distances and full six degree-of-freedom (6DOF) knowledge at near fields. The sensor fires lasers at two different frequencies to illuminate the Long Range Targets (LRTs) and the Short Range Targets (SRTs) on NEXTSat. Subtraction of one image from the other image removes extraneous light sources and reflections from anything other than the corner cubes on the LRTs and SRTs. This feature has played a significant role for Orbital Express in poor lighting conditions. The very bright spots that remain in the subtracted image are processed by the target recognition algorithms and the inverse-perspective algorithms, to provide 3DOF or 6DOF relative state information. Although Orbital Express has configured the ASTRO ARCSS system to only use AVGS at ranges of 120 m or less, some OE scenarios have provided opportunities for AVGS to acquire and track NEXTSat at greater distances. Orbital Express scenarios to date that have utilized AVGS include a berthing operation performed by the ASTRO robotic arm, sensor checkout maneuvers performed by the ASTRO robotic arm, 10-m unmated operations, 30-m unmated operations, and Scenario 3-1 anomaly recovery. The AVGS performed very well during the pre-unmated operations, effectively tracking beyond its 10-degree Pitch and Yaw limit-specifications, and did not require I-LOAD adjustments before unmated operations. AVGS provided excellent performance in the 10-m unmated operations, effectively tracking and maintaining lock for the duration of this scenario, and showing good agreement between the short and long range targets. During the 30-m unmated operations, the AVGS continuously tracked the SRT to 31.6 m, exceeding expectations, and continuously tracked the LRT from 8.8 m out to 31.6 m, with good agreement between these two target solutions. After this scenario was aborted at a 10-m separation during remate operations, the AVGS tracked the LRT out 54.3 m, until the relative attitude between the vehicles was too large. The vehicles remained apart for eight days, at ranges from 1 km to 6 km. During the approach to remate in this recovery operation, the AVGS began tracking the LRT at 150 m, well beyond the OE planned limits for AVGS ranges, and functioned as the primary sensor for the autonomous rendezvous and docking.

Howard, Ricky↗
NASA NTRS1994

A study of low mass x-ray binaries

The entire effort under this contract during the period through January 1992 was devoted to a study of the cost and schedule required to put an upgraded Aries payload on the ASTRO-SPAS carrier provided by the German space agency, DARA. The ASTRO-SPAS is flown on the Space Shuttle, deployed by the crew for 5 to 7 days of free-flying observations and then recovered and returned to Earth. The spectrograph was to be provided by a collaboration involving the Lockheed Palo Alto Research Laboratory (LPARL), the Center for Astrophysics and Space Astronomy (CASA) at the U. of Colorado and the Mullard Space Science Laboratory (MSSL) in England. The payload for the ASTRO-SPAS mission included our own spectrograph and an instrument provided by Dr. Joachim Trumper of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) in Garching, Germany. A meeting was held in late July, 1991 with German scientists, DARA representatives and MBB, the ASTRO-SPAS spacecraft contractor. Sufficient information was exchanged to allow us to complete the study and the name LEXSA (Low Energy X-ray Spectrograph on ASTRO-SPAS) was given to our instrument and HERTA (High Energy x-Ray Telescope on ASTR0-SPAS) to the German instrument. The combination was called SPECTRO-SPAS. On October 1, 1991 CASA and LPARL submitted a cost and brief technical proposal to NASA on results of the study. The total cost over 4 fiscal years was 6.16 M dollars including CASA costs. NASA Headquarters was briefed on 3 October on details of the proposal. They found our costs reasonable, but indicated that the NASA FY '92 budget is extremely tight, they could not readily identify where the -S2.3M for LEXSA could be found and it was not clear that FY '93 would improve.

Catura, Richard C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

EPE The Extreme Physics Explorer

The Extreme Physics Explorer (EPE) is a mission concept that will address fundamental and timely questions in astrophysics which are primary science objectives of IXO. The reach of EPE to the areas outlined in NASA RFI NNH11ZDA018L is shown as a table. The dark green indicates areas in which EPE can do the basic IXO science, and the light green areas where EPE can contribute but will not reach the full IXO capability. To address these science questions, EPE will trace orbits close to the event horizon of black holes, measure black hole spin in active galactic nuclei (AGN), use spectroscopy to characterize outflows and the environment of AGN, map bulk motions and turbulence in galaxy clusters, and observe the process of cosmic feedback where black holes inject energy on galactic and intergalactic scales. EPE gives up the high resolution imaging of IXO in return for lightweight, high TRL foil mirrors which will provide >20 times the effective area of ASTRO-H and similar spatial resolution, with a beam sufficient to study point sources and nearby galaxies and clusters. Advances in micro-calorimeters allow improved performance at high rates with twice the energy resolution of ASTRO-H. A lower TRL option would provide 200 times the area of ASTRO-H using a micro-channel plate optic (MCPO) and a deployable optical bench. Both options are in the middle range of RFI missions at between $600M and $1000M. The EPE foil optic has direct heritage to ASTRO-H, allowing robust cost estimates. The spacecraft is entirely off the shelf and introduces no difficult requirements. The mission could be started and launched in this decade to an L2 orbit, with a three-year lifetime and consumables for 5 years. While ASTRO-H will give us the first taste of high-resolution, non-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, it will be limited to small numbers of objects in many categories. EPE will give us the first statistically significant samples in each of these categories.

Garcia, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1991

Kappa Group: The initial guess. A proposal in response to a commercial air transportation study

Kappa Aerospace presents their Aeroworld Aircraft, the Initial Guess (IG). This aircraft is designed to generate profit in the market which is currently controlled by the train and boat industry. The main priority of the design team was to develop an extremely efficient aircraft that could be sold at a reasonable price. The IG offers a quick and safe alternative to the existing means of transportation at a competitive price. The cruise velocity of 28 ft/sec. allows all flights to be between 20 and 45 minutes, which is a remarkable savings in time compared to travel by boat or train. The IG is propelled by a single Astro-05 engine with a Zinger 10-6 propeller. The Astro-05 is not an extremely powerful engine; however, it provides enough thrust to meet the design and safety requirements. The major advantage of the Astro-05 is that it is the most efficient engine available. The fuel efficiency of the Astro-05 is what puts the aircraft ahead of the competition. The money saved on an efficient engine can be passed on as lower ticket prices or increased revenue. The IG has a payload of 56 passengers and a wingspan of 7 ft. The 7 ft. wingspan allows the aircraft to fit into the gates of all of the cities that are targeted. Future endeavors of Kappa Aerospace will include fitting a stretch version of the IG with a larger propulsion system. This derivative aircraft will be able to carry more passengers and will be placed on the routes which have the greatest demand for travel. The fuselage and empennage are made of a wooden truss configuration, while the wing is made of a rib/spare configuration. The stress carrying elements are made of spruce, the nonstress carrying elements are made of balsa. The wing is removable for easy access into the fuselage. The easy access to the batteries will keep maintenance costs down.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1998

Far UV Observations of Interstellar Shocks

This grant covered analysis of Hopkins Ultraviolet Telescope data from the Astro-2 mission. The proposed research was aimed primarily at SNR shock waves, but the ASTRO-2 GO program was intended to make the GOs part of the instrument teams. The grant therefore covered extensive travel to Marshall Space Flight Center for mission simulations and the mission itself. In keeping with the unique nature of the ASTRO-2 GO program, I participated actively in the instrument team's investigations of HH objects and cataclysmic variables. Over the course of the Astro-2 mission, we obtained good observations of the supernova remnants SN1006 (1 position), Vela (3 positions), the Cygnus Loop (7 positions) and 0519-69 in the LMC (1 position) as part of this GI program, along with Puppis A (1 position), Vela (1 position), the Cygnus Loop (7 positions) and the Schweizer- Middleditch star (HUT PI program on SNRS). We also observed the Herbig-Haro object HH2 and about a dozen cataclysmic variables, including magnetic systems and dwarf novae. This GI grant covered modest travel for data analysis. We anticipate submitting papers on the non-radiative shock in northern Cygnus Loop, on the LMC Balmer-dominated remnant LMC 0519-69, on the radiative shocks in the Eastern Cygnus Loop (the XA region), and on the cataclysmic variable YZ Cnc over the course of the coming year. We have obtained extensive supporting data from ground-based telescopes for the Cygnus Loop spectra.

Raymond, John C.↗
NASA NTRS1987

The development of a charge-coupled device tracker for spacecraft

Charge-coupled device (CCD) optical sensors have made it possible to construct high performance star and target trackers for spacecraft. The Advanced Star and Target Reference Orbital Sensor (ASTROS) trackers have been developed by JPL for the Shuttle-based astronomical flight Astro-1 and the Mariner Mark II (MMII) spacecraft. For the Shuttle application the tracker will provide the data for high precision instrument pointing and for the MMII application the tracker will provide stellar and extended target tracking data for flyby and rendezvous navigation. The specifications, architecture, and testing program for these trackers will be described. Laboratory measurements have demonstrated that these trackers can be very effective. The versatility and flexibility of the ASTROS type trackers will permit adaptation to a variety of navigation and guidance applications. These trackers represent one of the technologically advanced components that will be used in the development of the next generation of spacecraft.

Dennison, E. W.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Compression of spectral meteorological imagery

Data compression is essential to current low-earth-orbit spectral sensors with global coverage, e.g., meteorological sensors. Such sensors routinely produce in excess of 30 Gb of data per orbit (over 4 Mb/s for about 110 min) while typically limited to less than 10 Gb of downlink capacity per orbit (15 minutes at 10 Mb/s). Astro-Space Division develops spaceborne compression systems for compression ratios from as little as three to as much as twenty-to-one for high-fidelity reconstructions. Current hardware production and development at Astro-Space Division focuses on discrete cosine transform (DCT) systems implemented with the GE PFFT chip, a 32x32 2D-DCT engine. Spectral relations in the data are exploited through block mean extraction followed by orthonormal transformation. The transformation produces blocks with spatial correlation that are suitable for further compression with any block-oriented spatial compression system, e.g., Astro-Space Division's Laplacian modeler and analytic encoder of DCT coefficients.

Miettinen, Kristo↗