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At least 145 records · Page 8

Model Evaluation and Intercomparison Using Data Collected by the Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar in Hampton, Virginia

Throughout the year 2022, the Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar (LMOL) has been frequently collecting ozone and aerosol measurements in the lower troposphere. The lidar is located in the parking lot behind the Atmospheric Sciences building at NASA Langley in Hampton, Virginia, approximately 37.095 N, -76.389 W. The data was collected during a range of several distinct atmospheric conditions, including stratospheric intrusions, surface frontal passages, and long-range transported wildfire smoke plumes. We use this data to evaluate and intercompare the forecast accuracy of two atmospheric chemistry models: the GEOS Composition Forecasting model (GEOS-CF) and the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). Both models make daily three-dimensional forecasts of many trace gases and species for the contiguous United States. Over a range of ten distinct collection events, each spanning 36 hours to nearly seven days, the forecast models predict tropospheric ozone at NASA Langley with reasonable accuracy. The models best predict the timing and shape of the observed stratospheric intrusions in the middle troposphere but often vary in the magnitude of the ozone mixing ratios. For other atmospheric conditions, there is more variability in the model accuracy. Here, we summarize the accuracy of the models for all events and investigate reasons for differences between the models and the lidar.

Daniel B. Phoenix↗

NASA/MSFC FY90 Global Scale Atmospheric Processes Research Program Review

Research supported by the Global Atmospheric Research Program at the Marshall Space Flight Center on atmospheric remote sensing, meteorology, numerical weather forecasting, satellite data analysis, cloud precipitation, atmospheric circulation, atmospheric models and related topics is discussed.

Leslie, Fred W.↗

Radar sensitivity and antenna scan pattern study for a satellite-based Radar Wind Sounder (RAWS)

Modeling global atmospheric circulations and forecasting the weather would improve greatly if worldwide information on winds aloft were available. Recognition of this led to the inclusion of the LAser Wind Sounder (LAWS) system to measure Doppler shifts from aerosols in the planned for Earth Observation System (EOS). However, gaps will exist in LAWS coverage where heavy clouds are present. The RAdar Wind Sensor (RAWS) is an instrument that could fill these gaps by measuring Doppler shifts from clouds and rain. Previous studies conducted at the University of Kansas show RAWS as a feasible instrument. This thesis pertains to the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) sensitivity, transmit waveform, and limitations to the antenna scan pattern of the RAWS system. A dop-size distribution model is selected and applied to the radar range equation for the sensitivity analysis. Six frequencies are used in computing the SNR for several cloud types to determine the optimal transmit frequency. the results show the use of two frequencies, one higher (94 GHz) to obtain sensitivity for thinner cloud, and a lower frequency (24 GHz) to obtain sensitivity for thinner cloud, and a lower frequency (24 GHz) for better penetration in rain, provide ample SNR. The waveform design supports covariance estimation processing. This estimator eliminates the Doppler ambiguities compounded by the selection of such high transmit frequencies, while providing an estimate of the mean frequency. the unambiguous range and velocity computation shows them to be within acceptable limits. The design goal for the RAWS system is to limit the wind-speed error to less than 1 ms(exp -1). Due to linear dependence between vectors for a three-vector scan pattern, a reasonable wind-speed error is unattainable. Only the two-vector scan pattern falls within the wind-error limits for azimuth angles between 16 deg to 70 deg. However, this scan only allows two components of the wind to be determined. As a result, a technique is then shown, based on the Z-R-V relationships, that permit the vertical component (i.e., rain) to be computed. Thus the horizontal wind components may be obtained form the covariance estimator and the vertical component from the reflectivity factor. Finally, a new candidate system is introduced which summarizes the parameters taken from previous RAWS studies, or those modified in this thesis.

Stuart, Michael A.↗

Application of Lidar Winds to Data Assimilation

One of the major applications of space-based doppler wind lidar is to improve atmospheric analyses and numerical weather prediction (NWP). Since the mid 198,0's, Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE's) have been conducted in order to evaluate the potential impact of lidar winds on NWP. These experiments have shown tremendous potential for satellite lidar observations to improve atmospheric analyses and forecasts. In addition, the OSSE's are providing an evaluation of trade-offs in lidar design, and are currently being used to define the specific requirements for lidar winds in terms of horizontal and vertical coverage and accuracy. At the meeting the methodology for these experiments and the main results relating to proposed lidars will be presented.

Atlas, Robert↗

Differential Absorption Measurements of Atmospheric Water Vapor with a Coherent Lidar at 2050.532 nm

Wind and water vapor are two major factors driving the Earth's atmospheric circulation, and direct measurement of these factors is needed for better understanding of basic atmospheric science, weather forecasting, and climate studies. Coherent lidar has proved to be a valuable tool for Doppler profiling of wind fields, and differential absorption lidar (DIAL) has shown its effectiveness in profiling water vapor. These two lidar techniques are generally considered distinctly different, but this paper explores an experimental combination of the Doppler and DIAL techniques for measuring both wind and water vapor with an eye-safe wavelength based on a solid-state laser material. Researchers have analyzed and demonstrated coherent DIAL water vapor measurements at 10 micrometers wavelength based on CO2 lasers. The hope of the research presented here is that the 2 gm wavelength in a holmium or thulium-based laser may offer smaller packaging and more rugged operation that the CO2-based approach. Researchers have extensively modeled 2 um coherent lasers for water vapor profiling, but no published demonstration is known. Studies have also been made, and results published on the Doppler portion, of a Nd:YAG-based coherent DIAL operating at 1.12 micrometers. Eye-safety of the 1.12 micrometer wavelength may be a concern, whereas the longer 2 micrometer and 10 micrometer systems allow a high level of eyesafety.

Koch, Grady J.↗

Assimilation of SeaWinds Scatterometer Data in the GEOS Data Assimilation System

The first SeaWinds scatterometer was launched in to space aboard the Quikscat satellite on June 19, 1999 at 7:15 p.m. PDT. Flying in a near polar orbit 800 km above the earth's surface, SeaWinds uses an advanced scatterometer design to measure surface wind velocity over 90 percent of the ice free oceans ever 24 hours. This first SeaWinds mission is designed to replace the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) which ceased providing wind velocity data when the ADEOS I satellite failed. A second SeaWinds is scheduled to be launched late in 2000 aboard ADEOS II. Previous scatterometer assimilation experiments conducted by the NASA Data Assimilation Office, using both ERS and NSCAT wind observations, have demonstrated considerable potential for this type of data to improve both atmospheric analyses and forecasts, however much of the smaller scale information content of the scatterometer data could not be taken into account in the early coarse resolution versions of the Goddard (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS) or in operational data assimilation systems. In this paper, we will describe data assimilation experiments in which the new higher resolution versions of the GOES DAS are used to assimilate SeaWinds scatterometer winds. Following a brief discussion of the SeaWinds design and the methodology used to assimilate scatterometer data in the GOES DAS, the quality of the SeaWinds data and the impact of SeaWinds on GOES analyses and forecasts at different resolutions will be presented.

Atlas, Robert↗

Requirements for Space-Based Wind Lidar

Global wind profiles are needed for a wide range of meteorological applications. Since the 1980's, observing system simulation experiments have been conducted in order to evaluate the potential impact of space-based wind profiler data on numerical weather prediction, and to evaluate trade-offs in lidar design. These experiments indicated tremendous potential for satellite lidar observations to improve atmospheric analyses and forecasts. More recent experiments are aimed at assessing the precise requirements for space-based lidar wind profile data and to evaluate the potential for alternative technologies. At the workshop, OSSE methodology, and results from experiments conducted at the DAO to the define requirements for space-based lidar wind will be presented.

Atlas, Robert M.↗

Why Is Rainfall Error Analysis Requisite for Data Assimilation and Climate Modeling?

Given the large temporal and spatial variability of precipitation processes, errors in rainfall observations are difficult to quantify yet crucial to making effective use of rainfall data for improving atmospheric analysis, weather forecasting, and climate modeling. We highlight the need for developing a quantitative understanding of systematic and random errors in precipitation observations by examining explicit examples of how each type of errors can affect forecasts and analyses in global data assimilation. We characterize the error information needed from the precipitation measurement community and how it may be used to improve data usage within the general framework of analysis techniques, as well as accuracy requirements from the perspective of climate modeling and global data assimilation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Observational Evidence of a Hemispheric-wide Ice-ocean Albedo Feedback Effect on Antarctic Sea-ice Decay

The effect of ice-ocean albedo feedback (a kind of ice-albedo feedback) on sea-ice decay is demonstrated over the Antarctic sea-ice zone from an analysis of satellite-derived hemispheric sea ice concentration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40) atmospheric data for the period 1979-2001. Sea ice concentration in December (time of most active melt) correlates better with the meridional component of the wind-forced ice drift (MID) in November (beginning of the melt season) than the MID in December. This 1 month lagged correlation is observed in most of the Antarctic sea-ice covered ocean. Daily time series of ice , concentration show that the ice concentration anomaly increases toward the time of maximum sea-ice melt. These findings can be explained by the following positive feedback effect: once ice concentration decreases (increases) at the beginning of the melt season, solar heating of the upper ocean through the increased (decreased) open water fraction is enhanced (reduced), leading to (suppressing) a further decrease in ice concentration by the oceanic heat. Results obtained fi-om a simple ice-ocean coupled model also support our interpretation of the observational results. This positive feedback mechanism explains in part the large interannual variability of the sea-ice cover in summer.

Nihashi, Sohey↗

Causes and Predictability of the 2012 Great Plains Drought

Central Great Plains precipitation deficits during May-August 2012 were the most severe since at least 1895, eclipsing the Dust Bowl summers of 1934 and 1936. Drought developed suddenly in May, following near-normal precipitation during winter and early spring. Its proximate causes were a reduction in atmospheric moisture transport into the Great Plains from the Gulf of Mexico. Processes that generally provide air mass lift and condensation were mostly absent, including a lack of frontal cyclones in late spring followed by suppressed deep convection in summer owing to large-scale subsidence and atmospheric stabilization. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the summer 2012 central Great Plains drought development, which therefore arrived without early warning. Climate simulations and empirical analysis suggest that ocean surface temperatures together with changes in greenhouse gases did not induce a substantial reduction in summertime precipitation over the central Great Plains during 2012. Yet, diagnosis of the retrospective climate simulations also reveals a regime shift toward warmer and drier summertime Great Plains conditions during the recent decade, most probably due to natural decadal variability. As a consequence, the probability for severe summer Great Plains drought may have increased in the last decade compared to the 1980s and 1990s, and the so-called tail-risk for severe drought may have been heightened in summer 2012. Such an extreme drought event was nonetheless still found to be a rare occurrence within the spread of 2012 climate model simulations. Implications of this study's findings for U.S. seasonal drought forecasting are discussed.

Forecasts↗

Integrated Precision Landing Performance and Technology Assessments of a Human-Scale Mars Lander Using a Generalized Simulation Framework

Human-scale missions to Mars will likely require multiple landers delivered precisely to designated locations. The current NASA human Mars reference architecture assumes delivery of three 25 t payloads from a 1- or 5-Sol orbit to the surface with a landing precision of 50 m to ensure logistics are located near the habitat. While initial navigation estimates improve with on-orbit ground tracking, errors increase during post-deorbit coast. Likewise, Mars atmospheric variability and forecasting uncertainty means that the entry vehicle guidance, navigation, and control systems must be robust to accommodate landing during any time of day or Mars year, including during dust storms. Precision landing technologies are currently being assessed to determine if onboard navigation sensors are sufficient to enable the landing accuracy required or if additional navigation aids such as surface or orbiting beacons will be needed. This study evaluates the system performance requirements to meet the desired landing accuracy for the reference vehicle design and entry, descent, and landing concept of operations. A detailed six degree-of-freedom integrated performance simulation framework is used to perform the assessment and demonstrate that under current assumptions, onboard navigation sensors are sufficient to support precision landing.

spacecraft navigation↗

Long Term Stability Monitoring of Aqua MODIS Thermal Emissive Bands through Radiative Transfer Modeling

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Aqua has been in operation providing continuous global observations for science research and applications since 2002. The long-term stability of thermal emissive bands (TEBs) of Aqua MODIS was monitored through inter-comparisons with measurements by hyperspectral infrared sensors, such as AIRS on Aqua and IASI on MetOp satellite, or through long term vicarious monitoring over cold targets, such as Dome- C and deep convective clouds (DCC). In this paper, a radiative transfer modeling-based simulation model using Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) is developed to perform the long-term monitoring of the stability of TEBs of Aqua MODIS. CRTM is a fast-radiative transfer model for calculations of radiances for satellite infrared radiometers and is able to output infrared radiance and brightness temperature at spectral bands of MODIS. Long term European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global atmospheric reanalysis data, such as temperature and humidity profiles, are used as inputs to the CRTM simulation. By confining the area of interest to be over low to middle latitude ocean, the long-term stabilities of selected Aqua MODIS TEBs are monitored through Observation–Background (O-B) brightness temperature (BT) bias between MODIS measurements and BT retrieval from CRTM simulation. The consistency and relative stability between Aqua MODIS and ECMWF reanalysis data for surface channels of MODIS are evaluated. In addition, the radiative transfer modeling with CRTM enables us to evaluate the impacts of long term variation of global CO2 distribution on the O-B BT biases for CO2 channels of Aqua MODIS through comparison of simulations with constant or long term variable CO2 as inputs. The O-B analysis with RTM show that Aqua MODIS surface channels are all radiometrically stable with yearly BT bias drift less than 0.004K/year for B20, B22, B23 and ~0.01K/year for B31 and B32. The CO2 absorption channels of Aqua MODIS, e.g. B33-B36, are stable with BT bias drift < 0.005K/year.

MODIS↗

Integrated Precision Landing Performance and Technology Assessments of a Human- Scale Mars Lander Using a Generalized Simulation Framework

Human-scale missions to Mars will likely require multiple landers delivered precisely to designated locations. The current NASA human Mars reference architecture assumes delivery of three 25 t payloads from a 1- or 5-Sol orbit to the surface with a landing precision of 50 m to ensure logistics are located near the habitat. While initial navigation estimates improve with on-orbit ground tracking, errors increase during post-deorbit coast. Likewise, Mars atmospheric variability and forecasting uncertainty means that the entry vehicle guidance, navigation, and control systems must be robust to accommodate landing during any time of day or Mars year, including during dust storms. Precision landing technologies are currently being assessed to determine if onboard navigation sensors are sufficient to enable the landing accuracy required or if additional navigation aids such as surface or orbiting beacons will be needed. This study evaluates the system performance requirements to meet the desired landing accuracy for the reference vehicle design and entry, descent, and landing concept of operations. A detailed six degree-of-freedom integrated performance simulation framework is used to perform the assessment and demonstrate that under current assumptions, onboard navigation sensors are sufficient to support precision landing.

Chen, Po-Ting↗

A stochastic-dynamic model for the spatial structure of forecast error statistics

The present investigation is concerned with the presentation of a simplified model of the spatial structure of forecast error statistics, a comparison of the model with actual numerical weather prediction results, and the extent to which simplifying assumptions made in the model are justified. A stochastic-dynamic model is derived for the spatial structure of the global atmospheric mass-field forecast error. The model states that the relative potential vorticity of the forecast error is random. The covariance function of the model's solutions is found to be governed by a simple deterministic equation. The agreement between the stochastic model and actual mass-field forecast errors fields for 12-36 h periods validates the assumptions on which the model is derived. Within this period, the difference between the potential voriticity fields of the atmosphere and of the numerical forecasts used in the comparison is well represented by white noise.

Balgovind, R.↗

Status of the Microwave Barometric Radar and Sounder (MBARS)

Atmospheric surface pressure and pressure profiles are essential variables in weather modeling and forecasting. Pressure gradients generate atmospheric motion and are essential to the air-sea heat exchange feedbacks within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) that lead to convective storms and heavy precipitation. Despite the importance of pressure and pressure gradients on meso-, synoptic-, and global-scale weather patterns, current technology relies almost entirely on buoy measurements over the majority of the ocean. These measurements are too sparse to capture pressure gradients of even many synoptic scale events, and leave models starved of information. NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), NASA/Langley Research Center (LaRC), and Tomorrow.io have begun development of the Microwave Barometric Radar and Sounder (MBARS), an airborne sensor to retrieve surface air pressure and vertical pressure profiles, especially over oceans. MBARS is a new combined active/passive microwave instrument in the O2 absorption V-band (64-70 GHz) funded by the NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) Instrument Incubator Program (IIP). This instrument consists of an innovative scanning multi-channel differential absorption radar (DAR) to provide an estimation of total atmospheric column oxygen content and thus the surface dry air pressure. MBARS also will provide hyperspectral radiometric temperature profiling to enables vertical pressure profiles using the hypsometric relationship between pressure and temperature. A co-located microwave radiometer will provide the integrated water vapor mass contribution to atmospheric pressure. This presentation will summarize the project, retrieval concept, and engineering status of the MBARS project.

Radar, Radiometer↗

A Study of Rapidly Developing Low Cloud Ceilings in a Stable Atmosphere at the Florida Spaceport

Forecasters at the Space Meteorology Group (SMG) issue 30 to 90 minute forecasts for low cloud ceilings at the Shuttle Landing Facility (KTTS) in Kennedy Space Center, FL for all Space Shuttle missions. Mission verification statistics have shown cloud ceilings to be the biggest forecast challenge. SMG forecasters are especially concerned with rapidly developing cloud ceilings below 8000 ft. in a stable, capped thermodynamic environment because ceilings below 8000 ft restrict Shuttle landing operations and are the most challenging to predict accurately. This project involves the development of a database of these cases over east-central Florida in order to identify the onset, location, and if possible, dissipation times of rapidly-developing low cloud ceilings. Another goal is to document the atmospheric regimes favoring this type of cloud development to improve forecast skill of such events during Space Shuttle launch and landing operations. A 10-year database of stable, rapid low cloud development days during the daylight hours was compiled for the Florida cool-season months by examining the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station sounding data, and identifying days that had high boundary layer relative humidity associated with a thermally-capped environment below 8000 ft. Archived hourly surface observations from KTTS and Melbourne, Orlando, Sanford, and Ocala, FL were then examined for the onset of cloud ceilings below 8000 ft between 1100 and 2000 UTC. Once the database was supplemented with the hourly surface cloud observations, visible satellite imagery was examined in 30-minute intervals to confirm event occurrences. This paper will present results from some of the rapidly developing cloud ceiling cases and the prevailing meteorological conditions associated with these events, focusing on potential pre-curser information that may help improve their prediction.

FROM↗