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NASA NTRS1995

CME masses measured by the HELIOS spacecraft photometers

We have cataloged 160 CMEs detected in the HELIOS 1 and 2 90 deg zodiacal light photometers observed from 1975-1985. The HELIOS 1 and 2 spacecraft orbited from 0.3 to 1.0 AU on 6-month orbits. From the photometer observations of Thomson-scattered light in the inner heliosphere, we have determined CME masses for these events using two methods: (1) by integration over the contours drawn between the three photometers at a given time; and (2) by integration of the mass flow over time past a given photometer. The second method, not readily available using coronagraph observations, is derived from CME speeds measured by using the timing of the peak CME brightness from the 16 deg to 31 deg sets of photometers. The two different HELIOS methods of determining CME mass are consistent with one another for individual CMEs. We find that the CME mass values range from 10(exp 15)g to nearly 10(exp 17)g. We compare the mass distributions of HELIOS-measured CMEs with those from coronagraphs and find that CMEs measured by HELIOS over the same time interval are generally more massive. The solar cycle variation of the total CME mass present in the heliosphere varies by over a factor of approximately 15 from solar minimum to solar maximum. Slightly more massive CMEs carry the bulk of the CME mass during maximum. The total CME mass at solar maximum is found to be near 15% of the total solar wind mass.

Jackson, B. V.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Sigmoid CME Source Regions at the Sun: Some Recent Results

Identifying Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) precursors in the solar corona would be an important step in space weather forecasting, as well as a vital key to understanding the physics of CMEs. Twisted magnetic field structures are suspected of being the source of at least some CMEs. These features can appear sigmoid (S or inverse-S) shaped in soft X-ray (SXR) images. We review recent observations of these structures and their relation to CMEs, using soft X-ray (SXR) data from the Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) on the Yohkoh satellite, and EUV data from the EUV Imaging Telescope (EIT) on the SOHO satellite. These observations indicate that the pre-eruption sigmoid patterns are more prominent in SXRs than in EUV, and that sigmoid precursors are present in over 50% of CMEs. These findings are important for CME research, and may potentially be a major component to space weather forecasting. So far, however, the studies have been subject to restrictions that will have to be relaxed before sigmoid morphology can be used as a reliable predictive tool. Moreover, some CMEs do not display a SXR sigmoid structure prior to eruption, and some others show no prominent SXR signature of any kind before or during eruption.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Sigmoid CME Source Regions at The Sun: Some Recent Results

Identifying coronal mass ejection (CME) precursors in the solar corona would be an important step in space weather forecasting, as well as a vital key to understanding the physics of CMEs. Twisted magnetic field structures are suspected of being the source of at least some CMEs. These features can appear sigmoid (S or inverse-S) shaped in soft X-ray, (SXR) images. We review recent observations of these structures and their relation to CMEs. using SXR data from the Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) on the Yohkoh satellite, and EUV data from the EUV Imaging Telescope (EIT) on the SOHO satellite. These observations indicate that the pre-eruption sigmoid patterns are more prominent in SXRs than in EUV, and that sigmoid precursors are present in over 50% of CMEs. These findings are important for CME research, and may potentially be a major component to space weather forecasting. So far, however, the studies have been subject to restrictions that will have to be relaxed before sigmoid morphology can be used as a reliable predictive too[. Moreover, some CMEs do not display a SXR sigmoid structure prior to eruption, and some others show no prominent SXR signature of any kind before or during eruption.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Fluid Aspects of Solar Wind Disturbances Driven by Coronal Mass Ejections

Transient disturbances in the solar wind initiated by coronal eruptions have been modeled for many years, beginning with the self-similar analytical models of Parker and Simon and Axford. The first numerical computer code (one-dimensional, gas dynamic) to study disturbance propagation in the solar wind was developed in the late 1960s, and a variety of other codes ranging from simple one-dimensional gas dynamic codes through three-dimensional gas dynamic and magnetohydrodynamic codes have been developed in subsequent years. For the most part, these codes have been applied to the problem of disturbances driven by fast CMEs propagating into a structureless solar wind. Pizzo provided an excellent summary of the level of understanding achieved from such simulation studies through about 1984, and other reviews have subsequently become available. More recently, some attention has been focused on disturbances generated by slow CMEs, on disturbances driven by CMEs having high internal pressures, and disturbance propagation effects associated with a structured ambient solar wind. Our purpose here is to provide a brief tutorial on fluid aspects of solar wind disturbances derived from numerical gas dynamic simulations. For the most part we illustrate disturbance evolution by propagating idealized perturbations, mimicking different types of CMEs, into a structureless solar wind using a simple one-dimensional, adiabatic (except at shocks), gas dynamic code. The simulations begin outside the critical point where the solar wind becomes supersonic and thus do not address questions of how the CMEs themselves are initiated. Limited to one dimension (the radial direction), the simulation code predicts too strong an interaction between newly ejected solar material and the ambient wind because it neglects azimuthal and meridional motions of the plasma that help relieve pressure stresses. Moreover, the code ignores magnetic forces and thus also underestimates the speed with which pressure disturbances propagate in the wind.

Gosling, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Solar Flares, Type III Radio Bursts, Coronal Mass Ejections, and Energetic Particles

In this correlative study between greater than 20 MeV solar proton events, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, and radio bursts it is found that essentially all of the proton events are preceded by groups of type III bursts and all are preceded by CMEs. These type III bursts (that are a flare phenomenon) usually are long-lasting, intense bursts seen in the low-frequency observations made from space. They are caused by streams of electrons traveling from close to the solar surface out to 1 AU. In most events the type III emissions extend into, or originate at, the time when type II and type IV bursts are reported (some 5 to 10 minutes after the start of the associated soft X-ray flare) and have starting frequencies in the 500 to approximately 100 MHz range that often get lower as a function of time. These later type III emissions are often not reported by ground-based observers, probably because of undue attention to type II bursts. It is suggested to call them type III-1. Type III-1 bursts have previously been called shock accelerated (SA) events, but an examination of radio dynamic spectra over an extended frequency range shows that the type III-1 bursts usually start at frequencies above any type II burst that may be present. The bursts sometimes continue beyond the time when type II emission is seen and, furthermore, sometimes occur in the absence of any type II emission. Thus the causative electrons are unlikely to be shock accelerated and probably originate in the reconnection regions below fast CMEs. A search did not find any type III-1 bursts that were not associated with CMEs. The existence of low-frequency type III bursts proves that open field lines extend from within 0.5 radius of the Sun into the interplanetary medium (the bursts start above 100 MHz, and such emission originates within 0.5 solar radius of the solar surface). Thus it is not valid to assume that only closed field lines exist in the flaring regions associated with CMEs and some interplanetary particles originating in such flare regions might be expected in all solar particle events.

Cane, Hilary V.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector Magnetograms

Identification of active regions from which Earthward halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are likely to originate is important both for understanding how CMEs are produced and for prediction of hazardous space weather. In previous work, from a set of 17 MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center) vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions situated within +/- 2 days of rotation from central meridian, we have evaluated four different measures of the global nonpotentiality of the magnetic field of each active region, and have found that the nonpotentiality of these active regions is strongly correlated with their CME productivity during the time interval of +/- 2 days centered on the day of the magnetogram: strongly nonpotential bipolar active regions are much more likely to produce a CME during this interval that are weakly nonpotential bipolar active regions. To further establish the use of active-region nonpotentiality for forecasting CMEs, we have expanded the sample to 19 additional bipolar active regions, with vector magnetograms taken with the upgraded MSFC vector magnetograph from September 2000 through June 2001 with support from our LWS grant (M. J. Hagyard, PI). The four global measures of nonpotentiality are the length of strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line, the net current, and two other measures of the overall twist in the magnetic field of the active-region bipole. We find: 1) The statistical significance of the correlation of the nonpotentiality of active regions with their CME productivity within +/- 2 days of the day of the magnetogram is greater than 99%. 2) 67% of the strongly nonpotential active regions produced CMEs within the +/- 2 day window, while only 17% of the weakly nonpotential ones did. 3) The statistical significance of the correlation of the nonpotentiality of active regions with their CME productivity during 0-2 days after the day of the magnetogram is about 97%. 4) 42% of the strongly nonpotential active regions produced CMEs within the 0-2 day window, while only 10% of the weakly nonpotential ones did. 5) The four different measures of an active region's nonpotentiality agree most of the time in their classification of the nonpotentiality as strong or weak (75%-90% depending on the pair of measurements). Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Moore, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

On the Rates of Coronal Mass Ejections: Remote Solar and In Situ Observations

We compare the rates of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as inferred from remote solar observations and interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) as inferred from in situ observations at both 1 AU and Ulyssses from 1996 through 2004. We also distinguish between those ICMEs that contain a magnetic cloud (MC) and those that do not. While the rates of CMEs and ICMEs track each other well at solar minimum, they diverge significantly in early 1998, during the ascending phase of the solar cycle, with the remote solar observations yielding approximately 20 times more events than are seen at 1 AU. This divergence persists through 2004. A similar divergence occurs between MCs and non-MC ICMEs. We argue that these divergences are due to the birth of midlatitude active regions, which are the sites of a distinct population of CMEs, only partially intercepted by Earth, and we present a simple geometric argument showing that the CME and ICME rates are consistent with one another. We also acknowledge contributions from (1) an increased rate of high-latitude CMEs and (2) focusing effects from the global solar field. While our analysis, coupled with numerical modeling results, generally supports the interpretation that whether one observes a MC within an ICME is sensitive to the trajectory of the spacecraft through the ICME (i.e., an observational selection effect), one result directly contradicts it. Specifically, we find no systematic offset between the latitudinal origin of ICMEs that contain MCs at 1 AU in the ecliptic plane and that of those that do not.

Riley, Pete↗
NASA NTRS2010

Coronas Mass Ejections, Shocks, and Type II Radio Bursts

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most energetic phenomena in the interplanetary medium. Type II radio bursts are the earliest indicators of particle acceleration by CME-driven shocks. There is one-to-one correspondence between large solar energetic particle (SEP) events and long wavelength type II bursts because the same CME-driven shock is supposed to accelerate electrons and ions. However, there are some significant deviations: some CMEs lacking type II bursts (radio-quiet or RQ CMEs) are associated with small SEP events while some radioloud (RL) CMEs are not associated with SEP events, suggesting subtle differences in the acceleration of electrons and protons. Not all CME-driven shocks are radio loud: more than one third of the interplanetary shocks during solar cycle 23 were radio quiet. Some RQ shocks were associated with energetic storm particle (ESP) events, which are detected when the shocks arrive at the observing spacecraft. This paper attempts to explain these contradictory results in terms of the properties of CMEs, shocks, and the ambient medium.

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk↗
NASA NTRS2009

Halo Coronal Mass Ejections and Geomagnetic Storms

In this letter, I show that the discrepancies in the geoeffectiveness of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) reported in the literature arise due to the varied definitions of halo CMEs used by different authors. In particular, I show that the low geoeffectiveness rate is a direct consequence of including partial halo CMEs. The geoeffectiveness of partial halo CMEs is lower because they are of low speed and likely to make a glancing impact on Earth. Key words: Coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic storms, geoeffectiveness, halo CMEs.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗
NASA NTRS2011

Intensity Variation of Solar Energetic Particle Events

This paper updates the influence of environmental and source factors of shocks driven by corona) mass ejections (CMEs) that are likely to influence the intensity of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. The intensity variation due to CME interaction reported in Gopalswamy et al. (2004, JGR 109, Al2105) is confirmed by expanding the investigation to all the large SEP events of solar cycle 23. The large SEP events are separated into two groups, one associated with CMEs running into other CMEs, and the other with CMEs running into the ambient solar wind. SEP events with CME interaction generally have a higher intensity. New possibilities such as the influence of corona) holes on the SEP intensity are also discussed. For example, the presence of a large coronal hole between a well-connected eruption and the solar disk center may render the shock poorly connected because of the interaction between the CME and the coronal hole. This point is illustrated using the 2004 December 3 SEP event delayed by about 12 hours from the onset of the associated CME. There is no other event at the Sun that can be associated with the SEP onset. This event is consistent with the possibility that the coronal hole interaction influences the connectivity of the CMEs that produce SEPs, and hence the intensity of the SEP event.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗
NASA NTRS2012

CME-Associated Radio Bursts from Satellite Observations

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are closely associated with various types of radio bursts from the Sun. All radio bursts are due to nonthermal electrons, which are accelerated during the eruption of CMEs. Radio bursts at frequencies below about 15 MHz are of particular interest because they are associated with energetic CMEs that contribute to severe space weather. The low-frequency bursts need to be observed primarily from space because of the ionospheric cutoff. The main CME-related radio bursts are associated are: type III bursts due to accelerated electrons propagating along open magnetic field lines, type II bursts due to electrons accelerated in shocks, and type IV bursts due to electrons trapped in post-eruption arcades behind CMEs. This paper presents a summary of results obtained during solar cycle 23 primarily using the white-light coronagraphic observations from the Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the WAVES experiment on board Wind. Particular emphasis will be placed on what we can learn about particle acceleration in the coronal and interplanetary medium by analyzing the CMEs and the associated radio bursts.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗
NASA NTRS2012

Solar Sources of Severe Space Weather

Severe space weather is characterized by intense particle radiation from the Sun and severe geomagnetic storm caused by magnetized solar plasma arriving at Earth. Intense particle radiation is almost always caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) traveling from the Sun at super-Alfvenic speeds leading to fast-mode MHD shocks and particle acceleration by the shocks. When a CME arrives at Earth, it can interact with Earth's magnetopause resulting in solar plasma entry into the magnetosphere and a geomagnetic storm depending on the magnetic structure of the CME. Particle radiation starts affecting geospace as soon as the CMEs leave the Sun and the geospace may be immersed in the radiation for several days. On the other hand, the geomagnetic storm happens only upon arrival of the CME at Earth. The requirements for the production of particles and magnetic storms by CMEs are different in a number of respects: solar source location, CME magnetic structure, conditions in the ambient solar wind, and shock-driving ability of CMEs. Occasionally, intense geomagnetic storms are caused by corotating interaction regions (CIRs) that form in the interplanetary space when the fast solar wind from coronal holes overtakes the slow wind from the quiet regions. CIRs also accelerate particles, but when they reach several AU from the Sun, so their impact on Earth's space environment is not significant. In addition to these plasma effects, solar flares that accompany CMEs also produce excess ionization in the ionosphere causing sudden ionospheric disturbances. This paper highlights these space weather effects using space weather events observed by space and ground based instruments during of solar cycles 23 and 24.

Gopalswamy, N.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Solar Energetic Particle Events

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region's magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region's rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region's present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region's expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region's recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Factors Affecting the Intensity of Solar Energetic Particle Events

This paper updates the influence of environmental and source factors of shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that are likely to influence the solar energetic particle (SEP) events. The intensity variation due to CME interaction reported that is confirmed by expanding the investigation to all the large SEP events of solar cycle 23. The large SEP events are separated into two groups, one associated with CMEs running into other CMEs, and the other with CMEs running into the ambient solar wind. SEP events with CME interaction generally have a higher intensity. New possibilities such as the influence of coronal holes on the SEP intensity are also discussed. For example, the presence of a large coronal hole between a well-connected eruption and the solar disk center may render the shock poorly connected because of the interaction between the CME and the coronal hole. This point is illustrated using the 2004 December 3 SEP event delayed by about 12 hours from the onset of the associated CME. There is no other event at the Sun that can be associated with the SEP onset. This event is consistent with the possibility that the coronal hole interaction influences the connectivity of the CMEs that produce SEPs, and hence the intensity of the SEP event.

Coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS2014

Anomalous Expansion of Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle 24 and Its Space Weather Implications

The familiar correlation between the speed and angular width of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is also found in solar cycle 24, but the regression line has a larger slope: for a given CME speed, cycle 24 CMEs are significantly wider than those in cycle 23. The slope change indicates a significant change in the physical state of the heliosphere, due to the weak solar activity. The total pressure in the heliosphere (magnetic + plasma) is reduced by approximately 40%, which leads to the anomalous expansion of CMEs explaining the increased slope. The excess CME expansion contributes to the diminished effectiveness of CMEs in producing magnetic storms during cycle 24, both because the magnetic content of the CMEs is diluted and also because of the weaker ambient fields. The reduced magnetic field in the heliosphere may contribute to the lack of solar energetic particles accelerated to very high energies during this cycle.

coronal mass ejections↗