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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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134 records · Page 8
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NASA NTRS2021

Projected Changes to Hydroclimate Seasonality in the Continental United States

Future changes to the hydrological cycle are projected in a warming world, and any shifts in drought risk may prove extremely consequential for natural and human systems. In addition to long-term moistening, drying, or warming trends, perturbations to the annual cycle of regional hydroclimate variables may also have substantial impacts. We analyze projected changes in several hydroclimate variables across the continental United States, along with shifts in the amplitude and phase of their annual cycles. We find that even in regions where no robust change in the annual mean is expected, coherent changes to the annual cycle are projected. In particular, we identify robust regional phase shifts toward earlier arrival of peak evaporation in the northern regions, and peak runoff and total soil moisture in the western regions. Changes in the amplitude of the annual cycle of total and surface soil moisture are also projected, and reflect changes to the annual cycle in surface water supply and demand. Whether changes become detectable above the background noise of internal variability depends strongly on the future scenario considered, and significant changes to the annual cycle are largely avoided in the lowest-forcing scenario.

drought↗
NASA NTRS2021

Uncertainties, Limits, and Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation for Soil Moisture Drought in Southwestern North America

Over the last two decades, southwestern North America (SWNA) has been in the grip of one of the most severe droughts of the last 1,200 years, with one third to nearly one half of its severity attributable to climate change. We analyze how the risk of extreme soil moisture droughts in SWNA, analogous to the most severe 21-year (≥ in magnitude to 2000–2020) and single-year (≥ in magnitude to 2002) events of the last several decades, changes in projections from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. By the end of the 21st century, SWNA experiences robust (R ≥ 0.80) soil moisture drying and substantial increases in extreme single-year drought risk that scale strongly with warming, spanning an 8%–26% probability of occurrence across +2–4 K. Notably, our results show that 21-year droughts analogous to 2000–2020 are up to 5 times more likely than extreme single-year droughts under all levels of warming (≈50%). These high levels of 21-year drought risk are largely invariant across scenarios because of large spring precipitation declines in half the models, shifting SWNA into a drier mean state. Despite projections of this sweeping and ostensibly inevitable increase in 21-year drought risk, climate mitigation reduces their severity by reducing the magnitude of extreme single-year droughts during these events. Our results emphasize both the importance of preparing SWNA for imminent increases in persistent drought events and constraining projected precipitation uncertainty to better resolve future long-term drought risk.

drought↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Influence of Direct Radiative Forcing Versus Indirect Sea Surface Temperature Warming on Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Anticyclones Under Global Warming

Southern hemisphere subtropical anticyclones are projected to change in a warmer climate during both austral summer and winter. A recent study of CMIP 5 & 6 projections found a combination of local diabatic heating changes and static-stability-induced changes in baroclinic eddy growth as the dominant drivers. Yet the underlying mechanisms forcing these changes still remain uninvestigated. This study aims to enhance our mechanistic understanding of what drives these Southern Hemisphere anticyclones changes during both seasons. Using an AGCM, we decompose the response to CO2-induced warming into two components: (1) the fast atmospheric response to direct CO2 radiative forcing, and (2) the slow atmospheric response due to indirect sea surface temperature warming. Additionally, we isolate the influence of tropical diabatic heating with AGCM added heating experiments. As a complement to our numerical AGCM experiments, we analyze the Atmospheric and Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project experiments. Results from sensitivity experiments show that slow subtropical sea surface temperature warming primarily forces the projected changes in subtropical anticyclones through baroclinicity change. Fast CO2 atmospheric radiative forcing on the other hand plays a secondary role, with the most notable exception being the South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone in austral winter, where it opposes the forcing by sea surface temperature changes resulting in a muted net response. Lastly, we find that tropical diabatic heating changes only significantly influence Southern Hemisphere subtropical anticyclone changes through tropospheric wind shear changes during austral winter.

Subtropical anticyclone↗
NASA NTRS2022

Constraining Arctic Climate Projections of Wintertime Warming With Surface Turbulent Flux Observations and Representation of Surface-Atmosphere Coupling

The drivers of rapid Arctic climate change—record sea ice loss, warming SSTs, and a lengthening of the sea ice melt season—compel us to understand how this complex system operates and use this knowledge to enhance Arctic predictability. Changing energy flows sparked by sea ice decline, spotlight atmosphere-surface coupling processes as central to Arctic system function and its climate change response. Despite this, the representation of surface turbulent flux parameterizations in models has not kept pace with our understanding. The large uncertainty in Arctic climate change projections, the central role of atmosphere-surface coupling, and the large discrepancy in model representation of surface turbulent fluxes indicates that these processes may serve as useful observational constraints on projected Arctic climate change. This possibility requires an evaluation of surface turbulent fluxes and their sensitivity to controlling factors (surface-air temperature and moisture differences, sea ice, and winds) within contemporary climate models (here Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6). The influence of individual controlling factors and their interactions is diagnosed using a multi-linear regression approach. This evaluation is done for four sea ice loss regimes, determined from observational sea ice loss trends, to control for the confounding effects of natural variability between models and observations. The comparisons between satellite- and model-derived surface turbulent fluxes illustrate that while models capture the general sensitivity of surface turbulent fluxes to declining sea ice and to surface-air gradients of temperature and moisture, substantial mean state biases exist. Specifically, the central Arctic is too weak of a heat sink to the winter atmosphere compared to observations, with implications to the simulated atmospheric circulation variability and thermodynamic profiles. Models were found to be about 50% more efficient at turning an air-sea temperature gradient anomaly into a sensible heat flux anomaly relative to observations. Further, the influence of sea ice concentration on the sensible heat flux is underestimated in models compared to observations. The opposite is found for the latent heat flux variability in models; where the latent heat flux is too sensitive to a sea ice concentration anomaly. Lastly, the results suggest that present-day trends in sea ice retreat regions may serve as suitable observational constraints of projected Arctic warming.

turbulent fluxes↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Projected Future Degradation in Air Quality is Caused by More Abundant Natural Aerosols in a Warmer World

Previous studies suggest that greenhouse gas-induced warming can lead to increased fine particulate matter concentrations and degraded air quality. However, significant uncertainties remain regarding the sign and magnitude of the response to warming and the underlying mechanisms. Here, we show that thirteen models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 all project an increase in global average concentrations of fine particulate matter in response to rising carbon dioxide concentrations, but the range of increase across models is wide. The two main contributors to this increase are increased abundance of dust and secondary organic aerosols via intensified West African monsoon and enhanced emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, respectively. Much of the inter-model spread is related to different treatment of biogenic volatile organic compounds. Our results highlight the importance of natural aerosols in degrading air quality under current warming, while also emphasizing that improved understanding of biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions due to climate change is essential for numerically assessing future air quality.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗
NASA NTRS2023

Warming Overwhelms the Efficacy of Wet Conditions to Moderate Extreme Heat and Atmospheric Aridity Across the Central Plains

While the relationships between dry land surface conditions, heat, and aridity have been well-established, few studies have addressed whether global warming will affect the ability of wet conditions to moderate high temperatures and atmospheric aridity. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models, we demonstrate that absolute changes in the monthly maximum temperature distribution during Central North American summers strongly outweigh the historical cooling effect of high precipitation and soil moisture conditions. Although wet conditions nearly always prevent concurrent extreme temperatures in the baseline period, these conditions are 40%–48% and 96%–98% less effective at 1 and 2° of global warming, respectively. However, high precipitation and soil moisture partially retain the ability to constrain concurrent high vapor pressure deficit conditions below historical thresholds at 1–2° of warming. Our results highlight the growing vulnerability of Central North America to warmer temperatures and drier atmospheric conditions, even during periods of high precipitation and soil moisture.

global warming↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Coupled Stratospheric Ozone and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Feedbacks on the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitude Jet Response to 4xCO(2)

Stratospheric ozone, and its response to anthropogenic forcings, provide an important pathway for the coupling between atmospheric composition and climate. In addition to stratospheric ozone’s radiative impacts, recent studies have shown that changes in the ozone layer due to 4xCO2 have a considerable impact on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) tropospheric circulation inducing an equatorward shift of the North Atlantic jet during boreal winter. Here we show that this equatorward jet shift can induce a more rapid weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), resulting in a poleward shift of the midlatitude eddy-driven jet on longer timescales. As such, coupled feedbacks from both stratospheric ozone and the AMOC result in a two-timescale response of the NH midlatitude jet to abrupt 4xCO2 forcing: a “fast” response (5-20 years) during which it shifts equatorward and a “total” response (∼100-150 years) during which the jet shifts poleward. The latter is driven by a weakening of the AMOC that develops in response to weaker surface zonal winds, that result in reduced heat fluxes out of the subpolar gyre and reduced North Atlantic Deep Water formation. Our results suggest that stratospheric ozone changes in the lower stratosphere can have a surprisingly powerful effect on the AMOC, independent of other aspects of climate change.

Climate models↗
NASA NTRS2023

WACCM6 Projections of Polar Mesospheric Cloud Abundance Over the 21st Century

Polar mesospheric clouds (PMC), or noctilucent clouds, can be observed over high latitudes with the naked eye from the ground or from space near the summer solstice. PMC are considered a direct and sensitive indicator of climate change and have been reported to appear more frequently in recent decades. How PMC will change in the future under the influence of natural variability and anthropogenic forcing is uncertain. In this study, we utilize model output from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model under several shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios and input the water vapor, temperature, and pressure information into a 0-d PMC model to project the trend and variation of PMC over the 21st century, and their relationship to future changes of temperature, water vapor, and the solar cycle. The 0-d model calculations indicate that PMC ice water content (IWC) will increase and PMC will extend to lower latitudes under high SSP scenarios. Under these scenarios, more mesospheric water vapor leads to an increased IWC of PMC over the polar region, and colder mesopause temperature leads to more PMC over the mid-latitudes. There is a significant anti-correlation between the solar cycle and PMC IWC over the 21st century, but the anti-correlation is not always significant on the decadal scale. Finally, methane oxidation in the stratosphere and water vapor entering from the troposphere are both responsible for future changes in mesospheric water vapor and thus PMC.

Polar Mesospheric Clouds↗