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At least 145 records · Page 8

Pre Symptomatic COVID Screening

Temperature checks for fever are extensively used for preliminary COVID screenings but are ineffective during the incubation stage of infection when a person is asymptotic. Researchers at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control concluded that approximately 75% of passengers infected with COVID-19 and traveling from affected Chinese cities would not be detected by early screening. Core body temperature is normally kept within a narrow range and has the smallest relative standard deviation of all vital signs. Heat in the body is prioritized around internal organs at the expense of the periphery by controlling blood flow. In fact, blood flow to the skin may vary by a factor of 100 depending on thermal conditions. This adaptation causes rapid temperature fluctuations in different skin regions from changes in cardiac output, metabolism, and likely cytokine diffusion during inflammation that would not be seen in average core body temperature. Current IR and thermal scanners used for temperature checks are not necessarily reflective of core body temperatures and require cautious interpretation as they frequently result in false positive and false negative diagnosis. Hand held thermometers measure average skin temperatures and can get readings that differ from core body temperature by as much as 7°. Rather than focusing on a core body temperature threshold assessment we believe that variability of temperature patterns using a novel wearable transdermal microneedle sensor will be more sensitive to infections in the incubation stage and propose to develop a wearable transdermal temperature sensor using established Sandia microneedle technology for pre symptomatic COVID screening that can additionally be used to monitor disease progression at later stages.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Sandia's Research in Support of COVID-19 Pandemic Response: Materials Science

Sandia Materials Science Investment Area contributed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and COVID-19 disease which represent the most significant pandemic threat in over 100 years. We completed a series of 7, short duration projects to provide innovative materials science research and development in analytical techniques to aid the neutralization of COVID-19 on multiple surfaces, approaches to rapidly decontaminate personal protective equipment, and pareto assessment of construction materials for manufacturing personal protective equipment. The developed capabilities and processes through this research can help US medical personnel, government installations and assets, first responders, state and local governments, and multiple federal agencies address the COVID-19 Pandemic.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modeling efficient and equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines

Producing and distributing COVID-19 vaccine during the pandemic is a major logistical challenge requiring careful planning and efficient execution. This report presents information on logistical, policy and technical issues relevant to rapidly fielding a COVID-19 vaccination program. For this study we (a) conducted literature review and subject matter expert elicitation to understand current vaccine manufacturing and distribution capabilities and vaccine allocation strategies, (b) designed a baseline vaccine distribution strategy and modeling strategy to provide insight into the potential for targeted distribution of limited initial vaccine supplies, and (c) developed parametric interfaces to enable vaccine distribution scenarios to be analyzed in depth with Sandias Adaptive Recovery Model that will allow us evaluate the additional sub- populations and alternative distribution scenarios from a public health benefit and associated economic disruption Principal issues, challenges, and complexities that complicate COVID-19 vaccine delivery identified in our literature and subject matter expert investigation include these items: The United States has not mounted an urgent nationwide vaccination campaign in recent history. The existing global manufacturing and distribution infrastructure are not able to produce enough vaccine for the population immediately. Vaccines, once available will be scarce resources. Prioritization for vaccine allocation will be built on existing distribution networks. Vaccine distribution may not have a universal impact on disease transmission and morbidity because of scarcity, priority population demographics, and underlying disease transmission rates. Considerations for designing a vaccine distribution strategy are discussed. A baseline distribution strategy is designed and tested using the Adaptive Recovery Model, which couples a deterministic compartmental epidemiological model and a stochastic network model. We show the impact of this vaccine distribution strategy on hospitalizations, mortality, and contact tracing requirements. This model can be used to quantitatively evaluate alternative distribution scenarios, guiding policy decisions as vaccine candidates are narrowed down.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Reducing COVID-19 Transmission in Homes

Owners and renters all over the world are being encouraged to stay home as much as possible to mitigate the spread of the SARS CoV-2 virus and the COVID-19 disease. It is prudent to take reasonable precautions at home to decrease risks during the pandemic because most COVID-19 transmission happens in the home (see “learn more”). This is particularly true for households with infected or sensitive members. Furthermore, because people infected with COVID-19 can be asymptomatic you may have an infected person in your home for several days before you know it.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory: Report on Rapid R&D Solutions to the COVID-19 Crisis

With funding from the CARES Act, the U.S Department of Energy (DOE) established the National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory (NVBL) in March 2020 to address key challenges associated with the COVID-19 crisis. NVBL brought together the broad scientific and technical expertise and resources of DOE’s 17 national laboratories to help tackle medical supply short ages, discover potential drugs to fight the virus, develop and validate COVID-19 testing methods, model disease spread and impact across the nation, and understand virus transport in buildings and the environment. National laboratory resources leveraged for this effort include a suite of world-leading user facilities broadly available to the research community, such as light and neutron sources, nanoscale science research centers, sequencing and biocharacterization facilities, and high-performance computing facilities. Within months, NVBL teams produced innovations in materials and advanced manufacturing that mitigated shortages in test kits and personal protective equipment (PPE), creating nearly 1,000 new jobs. They used DOE’s high-performance computers and light and neutron sources to identify promising candidates for antibodies and antivirals that universities and drug companies are now evaluating. NVBL researchers also developed new diagnostic targets and sample collection approaches, and supported U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) efforts to establish national guidelines used in administering millions of tests. Researchers used artificial intelligence and high-performance computing to produce near-real-time data analysis to forecast disease transmission, stress on public health infrastructure, and economic impact, which supported decision-makers at the local, state, and national levels. NVBL teams also studied how to control indoor virus movement to minimize uptake and protect human health. NVBL’s accomplishments demonstrate not only the powerful resource represented by DOE’s national laboratories working together to meet national needs, but also the effectiveness of the integrated NVBL framework for rapidly responding to emergencies with research and development (R&D) solutions. As the fight against COVID continues, sustained efforts are needed to confront this pandemic as well as future threats. Examples include: 1) Establishing “supply chains on demand” to meet emergency production needs by leveraging the materials and manufacturing expertise of DOE national laboratories and developing advances in electronics, sensing, robotics, and automation capabilities; 2) Improving the speed and robustness of drug discovery by integrating experimental platforms with DOE’s computational and experimental user facilities, which provide unique resources to support the discovery of high-potential therapeutic agents; 3) Protecting public, environmental, and animal health by developing new testing protocols and instrumentation adaptable to diverse sample types (both physiological and environmental) to quickly detect a wide range of pathogens and monitor other biorisks; 4) Supporting near-real-time data needs of decision-makers at the local, regional, state, and national levels by advancing data curation, analysis, and modeling using artificial intelligence and new data science tools for managing and evaluating large diverse datasets; 5) Harnessing DOE’s expertise in environmental modeling to design rooms and air handling for offices, classrooms, restaurants, and other structures to minimize biorisk transmissions. Going forward, NVBL is poised to apply the unique capabilities and expertise of the national laboratory complex to future national and international emergencies, both natural and engineered. Through this framework, the Office of Science will continue to be an integral component of agency wide efforts to prepare for and respond to biorisks and other crises.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multi-omics Characterization of the Host Response to COVID-19

This project is a multi-disciplinary collaboration between investigators at PNNL with expertise in mass spectrometry (MS)-based omics technology development, omics measurement methods development and application, statistics, machine learning and integration of disparate datasets for a systems-level understanding, and expertise in pathogenic coronaviruses, and investigators at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW-Madison) with expertise in pathogenic respiratory viruses (e.g. influenza). The goal of this project is to obtain a comprehensive picture of the human host factors critical for the outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We will generate broad untargeted multi-omics profiles using both state-of-the-art and novel instrumentation and approaches to enable the identification of the molecular mechanisms and host response pathways that impact human COVID-19 outcomes. We anticipate these results will lead to the generation of biomarker panels that are predictive of disease outcomes and mechanistic hypotheses that can be further interrogated in future studies and will provide the basis for vaccine or therapeutic development. To do so, we are obtaining and analyzing blood samples from COVID-19 patients with a range of disease outcomes that were treated at the Center Hospital of the National Center for Global Health and Medicine in Tokyo, Japan and other collaborating hospitals in our network. Specifically, this project will fund proteomics and metabolomics analyses of clinical COVID samples, machine learning-based integration of the data, and pathway-based interpretation of the data. This project was funded in June 2020. In the time span of June to September 2020, the project team developed an analytically and statistically robust analysis plan and made various preparations to facilitate sample receipt from our UW-Madison collaborators. This included blocking and randomization of sample prep orders, ordering of reagents and reference materials, and shipping of materials needed for preparation of the samples under BSL3 conditions to our collaborators at UW-Madison. As of FY21, this project has been picked up via a sponsor, the Naval Medical Research Center, which will cover the remainder of the proposed scope of work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Path-Based Analysis of Infected Cell Line and COVID-19 Patient Transcriptome Reveals Novel Potential Targets and Drugs Against SARS-CoV-2

Most transcriptomic studies of SARS-CoV-2 infection have focused on differentially expressed genes, which do not necessarily reveal the genes mediating the transcriptomic changes. In contrast, exploiting curated biological network, our PathExt tool identifies central genes from the differentially active paths mediating global transcriptomic response. Here we apply PathExt to multiple cell line infection models of SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses, as well as to COVID-19 patient-derived PBMCs. The central genes mediating SARS-CoV-2 response in cell lines were uniquely enriched for ATP metabolic process, G1/S transition, leukocyte activation and migration. In contrast, PBMC response reveals dysregulated cell-cycle processes. In PBMC, the most frequently central genes are associated with COVID-19 severity. Importantly, relative to differential genes, PathExt-identified genes show greater concordance with several benchmark anti-COVID-19 target gene sets. We propose six novel anti-SARS-CoV-2 targets ADCY2, ADSL, OCRL, TIAM1, PBK, and BUB1, and potential drugs targeting these genes, such as Bemcentinib, Phthalocyanine, and Conivaptan.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Aerosol transport pathways and source attribution in China during the COVID-19 outbreak

Abstract. Due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, human activities and industrial productions were strictly restricted during January–March 2020 in China. Despite the fact that anthropogenic aerosol emissions largely decreased, haze events still occurred. Characterization of aerosol transport pathways and attribution of aerosol sources from specific regions are beneficial to air quality and pandemic control strategies. This study establishes source–receptor relationships in various regions covering all of China during the COVID-19 outbreak based on the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging (CAM5-EAST). Our analysis shows that PM2.5 burden over the North China Plain between 30 January and 19 February is mostly contributed by local emissions (40 %–66 %). For other regions in China, PM2.5 burden is largely contributed from nonlocal sources. During the most polluted days of the COVID-19 outbreak, local emissions within the North China Plain and eastern China contributed 66 % and 87 % to the increase in surface PM2.5 concentrations, respectively. This is associated with the anomalous mid-tropospheric high pressure at the location of the climatological East Asia trough and the consequently weakened winds in the lower troposphere, leading to the local aerosol accumulation. The emissions outside China, especially those from South Asia and Southeast Asia, contribute over 50 % to the increase in PM2.5 concentration in southwestern China through transboundary transport during the most polluted day. As the reduction in emissions in the near future is desirable, aerosols from long-range transport and unfavorable meteorological conditions are increasingly important to regional air quality and need to be taken into account in clean-air plans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Psyche Project Implementation During the COVID Pandemic

In January 2017, “Psyche: Journey to a Metal World” was selected for implementation as part of NASA’s Discovery program. The Psyche mission will utilize electric propulsion with SPT-140 Hall thrusters to rendezvous and orbit the metal-rich asteroid (16) Psyche, in the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. The Psyche spacecraft requires no chemical propulsion and, when launched in 2022, will be the first mission to use Hall thrusters beyond lunar orbit. The Psyche spacecraft is a hybrid development with Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)-provided deep-space avionics and communications equipment mounted on a high-heritage MAXAR (formerly Space Systems Loral) Solar-Electric Propulsion (SEP) Chassis, based on their 1300 series of GEO communications satellites. The spacecraft is equipped to support a suite of science instruments, as well as a demonstration of the Deep Space Optical Communications (DSOC) technology. The spacecraft has sufficient onboard resources, autonomy, redundancy, and operability to complete a 3.5-year cruise to 16 Psyche, followed by a 20-month campaign of science investigations while orbiting the asteroid.The mission’s early concept design and progress through Preliminary Design Review (PDR) has been described in previous work. The paper will cover the recent mission progress from the Critical Design Review (CDR) through the start of Spacecraft Environmental Testing, which took place during the COVID pandemic.The authors will highlight the successful remote collaboration between the major partners: ASU, JPL, MAXAR, and the Payload teams that led to the initiation of the Assembly, Test, Launch, Operations Phase (ATLO) in early March 2021. Emphasis will be placed on the effects that the COVID-19 pandemic had on the work environment over the last 16+ months, including challenges to delivery of flight hardware and test equipment. In addition to the COVID-19 challenges, other significant anomalies discovered during design and test will be described along with any impacts to the overall science capability of the mission.

Lord, Peter↗

Cyberbiosecurity and Public Health in the Age of COVID-19

Cyberbiosecurity, the aspect of biosecurity involving the digital representation of biological data, had already been emerging as a matter of public concern even prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Key issues of concern include, among others, the privacy of patient data, the security of public health databases, the integrity of diagnostic test data, the integrity of public biological databases, the security implications of automated laboratory systems and the security of proprietary biological engineering advances. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the importance of digital resources in combatting it, concern about the potential for cyber attacks by state-based or non-state actors has been elevated. To illuminate the challenges, we focus on the cyber vulnerabilities that need to be addressed in public health activities such as disease surveillance and outbreak management. In particular, we examine cyber issues raised by the accelerated pace of development for COVID mitigations, treatments, and vaccines.

cybersecurity, biosecurity↗

Investigation of HVAC operation strategies for office buildings during COVID-19 pandemic

To minimize the indoor transmission of contaminants, such as the virus that can lead to COVID-19, buildings must provide the best indoor air quality possible. Improving indoor air quality can be achieved through the building's HVAC system to decrease any concentration of indoor contaminants by dilution and/or by source removal. However, doing so has practical downsides on the HVAC operation that are not always quantified in the literature. This paper develops a temporal simulation capability that is used to investigate the indoor virus concentration and operational cost of an HVAC system for two mitigation strategies: (1) supplying 100% outdoor air into the building and (2) using different HVAC filters, including MERV 10, MERV 13, and HEPA filters. These strategies are applied to a hypothetical medium office building consisting of five occupied zones and located in a cold and dry climate. We modeled the building using the Modelica Buildings library and developed new models for HVAC filtration and virus transmission to evaluate COVID-19 scenarios. We show that the ASHRAE-recommended MERV 13 filtration reduces the average virus concentration by about 10% when compared to MERV 10 filtration, with an increase in site energy consumption of about 3%. In contrast, the use of 100% outdoor air reduces the average indoor concentration by about an additional 1% compared to MERV 13 filtration, but significantly increases heating energy consumption. Use of HEPA filtration increases the average indoor concentration and energy consumption compared to MERV 13 filtration due to the high resistance of the HEPA filter.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Impacts of COVID-19 related stay-at-home restrictions on residential electricity use and implications for future grid stability

“Stay-at-home” orders and other health precautions enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to substantial changes in residential electricity usage. Here, we conduct a case study to analyze data from 390 apartments in New York City (NYC) to examine the impacts of two key drivers of residential electricity usage: COVID-19 case-loads and the outdoor temperature. We develop a series of regression models to predict two characteristics of residential electricity usage on weekdays: The average occupied apartment’s consumption (kWh) over a 9am-5pm window and the hourly peak demand (Watt) over a 12pm-5pm window. Via a Monte Carlo simulation, we forecast the two usage characteristics under a possible scenario in which stay-at-home orders in NYC, or a similar metropolitan region, coincide with warm summer weather. Under the scenario, the 9am-5pm residential electricity usage on weekdays is predicted to be 15% – 24% higher than under prior, pre-pandemic conditions. This could lead to substantially higher utility costs for residents. Additionally, we predict that the residential hourly peak demand between 12pm and 5pm on weekdays could be 35% – 53% higher than that under pre-pandemic conditions. We conclude that the projected increase in peak demand - which might arise if stay-at-home guidelines coincided with hot weather conditions - could pose grid management challenges, especially for residential feeders. We also note that, if there is a longer lasting shift towards work and study-from-home, utilities will have to rethink load profile considerations. The applications of our predictive models to managing future smart-grid technology are also highlighted.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Preparing for the next pandemic via transfer learning from existing diseases with hierarchical multi-modal BERT: a study on COVID-19 outcome prediction

Abstract Developing prediction models for emerging infectious diseases from relatively small numbers of cases is a critical need for improving pandemic preparedness. Using COVID-19 as an exemplar, we propose a transfer learning methodology for developing predictive models from multi-modal electronic healthcare records by leveraging information from more prevalent diseases with shared clinical characteristics. Our novel hierarchical, multi-modal model ( $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ) integrates baseline risk factors from the natural language processing of clinical notes at admission, time-series measurements of biomarkers obtained from laboratory tests, and discrete diagnostic, procedure and drug codes. We demonstrate the alignment of $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ’s predictions with well-established clinical knowledge about COVID-19 through univariate and multivariate risk factor driven sub-cohort analysis. $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ’s superior performance over state-of-the-art methods shows that leveraging patient data across modalities and transferring prior knowledge from similar disorders is critical for accurate prediction of patient outcomes, and this approach may serve as an important tool in the early response to future pandemics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Movement Motivations, Demand, and Inflow-Outflow Dynamics in Four Cities (New York, Chicago, Austin, and San Diego) During COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted a wide range of human activities, from food delivery habits to major moving and travel decisions. Results indicate multiple pandemic-related factors have influenced millions of relocation decisions by Americans (e.g., health risk, financial pressures, more space, and employment), and there are various positive economic and social outcomes of this influence (e.g., remote work and education), enabling more affordable living and opportunity. This paper addresses COVID-19 impacts on mobility, especially involving permanent relocations. Survey design and data analysis with U-Haul targeted customers in Austin, New York, San Diego, and Chicago to understand mobility, new moving dynamics, and motivations.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Design and proof of concept for targeted phage-based COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a streamlined cold-free supply chain

Significance The COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact. Although several vaccines have received emergency use authorization, demand has created enormous logistical challenges—including supply, access, and distribution—that justify research for alternative strategies. Phage are viruses that only infect bacteria and can be safely administered to humans. Here, as a proof-of-concept study, we demonstrate that aerosol vaccination with lung-targeted phage particles displaying short SARS-CoV-2 S protein epitopes and subcutaneous vaccination with targeted AAVP particles carrying the entire S protein gene both elicit systemic and specific immune responses in immunocompetent mice. Given their unique attributes, including sturdiness, simple-to-engineer platform, cost-effectiveness for rapid large-scale production, and stability at room temperature, these phage-based approaches may become attractive tools for COVID-19 vaccine development.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Comprehensive compartmental model and calibration algorithm for the study of clinical implications of the population-level spread of COVID-19: a study protocol

The complex dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has made obtaining reliable long-term forecasts of the disease progression difficult. Simple mechanistic models with deterministic parameters are useful for short-term predictions but have ultimately been unsuccessful in extrapolating the trajectory of the pandemic because of unmodelled dynamics and the unrealistic level of certainty that is assumed in the predictions. We propose a 22-compartment epidemiological model that includes compartments not previously considered concurrently, to account for the effects of vaccination, asymptomatic individuals, inadequate access to hospital care, post-acute COVID-19 and recovery with long-term health complications. Additionally, new connections between compartments introduce new dynamics to the system and provide a framework to study the sensitivity of model outputs to several concurrent effects, including temporary immunity, vaccination rate and vaccine effectiveness. Subject to data availability for a given region, we discuss a means by which population demographics (age, comorbidity, socioeconomic status, sex and geographical location) and clinically relevant information (different variants, different vaccines) can be incorporated within the 22-compartment framework. Considering a probabilistic interpretation of the parameters allows the model's predictions to reflect the current state of uncertainty about the model parameters and model states. We propose the use of a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for parameter calibration and model selection. This methodology considers a combination of prescribed parameter prior distributions for parameters that are known to be essential to the modelled dynamics and automatic relevance determination priors for parameters whose relevance is questionable. This is useful as it helps prevent overfitting the available epidemiological data when calibrating the parameters of the proposed model. Population-level administrative health data will serve as partial observations of the model states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Fast Response of East Asian Precipitation in June 2020 to Local and Remote Aerosol Emission Reductions during COVID-19

Here, in this study, the fast response of East Asian summer precipitation to COVID-19–induced aerosol emission reductions is examined using the Community Earth System Model, version 2.2 (CESM2.2). The emission reductions decreased aerosol optical depth and cloud cover over northern China in June 2020. The troposphere became warmer, strengthening the land–sea thermal contrast and anomalous southerly winds. The subtropical westerly jet accelerated and shifted southward, favoring low-level convergence, upward air motions, and subsequent condensational heating over the Yangtze River basin (YRB). The feedback of condensational heating in return strengthened the convergence and ascent. The western North Pacific subtropical high was intensified, which further enhanced the moisture advection and convergence over the YRB. Both the enhanced moisture convergence and ascent increased precipitation over the YRB during June 2020. Furthermore, local and remote emission reductions show different impacts on convection and moisture transport over the YRB. The emission reductions over China caused stronger convective precipitation (1.15 vs 0.63 mm day −1 ) but weaker larger-scale precipitation (1.17 vs 2.24 mm day −1 ) than the emission reductions outside China. In addition to the emission reductions, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in 2020 also play an important role in increasing precipitation over the YRB, contributing about 42.8%. The relative contribution of SST anomalies also increases under the COVID-19–induced emission scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗