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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

In-situ relative calibration of Bragg crystals with Monte Carlo line ratio analysis

X-ray line emission spectra can thoroughly characterize hot plasmas, especially when line shapes and ratios convey distinct aspects of plasma conditions. However, the high spectral resolution required for observing line shapes is often at odds with the large bandwidth required to observe many line ratios across a wide spectral range. One strategy to obtain high spectral resolution over a wide bandwidth is to use multiple crystals with calibrated reflectivity so that line intensities across different crystals can be compared. Here, we explore the use of a low-resolution, wide-bandwidth mica survey spectrometer to infer relative reflectivity of two high-resolution, narrow-bandwidth quartz crystals. Finally, a Monte Carlo error analysis determines comparable x-ray line ratios measured from both spectrometers, resulting in an in situ calibration factor and associated uncertainty for the relative reflectivity of the high-resolution crystals.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Calibration and characterization of the line-VISAR diagnostic at the HED-HIBEF instrument at the European XFEL

In dynamic-compression experiments, the line-imaging Velocity Interferometer System for Any Reflector (VISAR) is a well-established diagnostic used to probe the velocity history, including wave profiles derived from dynamically compressed interfaces and wavefronts, depending on material optical properties. Knowledge of the velocity history allows for the determination of the pressure achieved during compression. Such a VISAR analysis is often based on Fourier transform techniques and assumes that the recorded interferograms are free from image distortions. In this paper, we describe the VISAR diagnostic installed at the HED-HIBEF instrument located at the European XFEL along with its calibration and characterization. It comprises a two-color (532, 1064 nm), three-arm (with three velocity sensitivities) line imaging system. We provide a procedure to correct VISAR images for geometric distortions and evaluate the performance of the system using Fourier analysis. We finally discuss the spatial and temporal calibrations of the diagnostic. As an example, we compare the pressure extracted from the VISAR analysis of shock-compressed polyimide and silicon.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermally anisotropic building envelope for thermal management: finite element model calibration using field evaluation data

The thermally anisotropic building envelope (TABE) is an active building envelope that redistributes thermal loads in response to weather conditions and building energy demand. Conductive layers throughout the TABE distribute low-grade heat among hydronic loops, altering heat flow direction and intensity. Finite element models of TABE roof and wall panels were developed and calibrated using field evaluation data. The calibration results showed that heat flux differences between the experimental data and finite element models averaged –0.42% and 3.57%, with a maximum mean square error of 1.78 and 3.96 for roof and wall panels, respectively. A reduction in heat flux from the environment to the building living space over the entire testing period (weeks in July/August) was found to be 85% for roof panels and 335% (load reversed) for wall panels. Finally, these results indicate TABE can effectively harness low-grade thermal energy sources to achieve high energy efficiency and promote demand-side management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Calibration of RAFM Micromechanical Model for Creep Using Bayesian Optimization for Functional Output

A Bayesian optimization procedure is presented for calibrating a multimechanism micromechanical model for creep to experimental data of F82H steel. Reduced activation ferritic martensitic (RAFM) steels based on Fe(8–9)%Cr are the most promising candidates for some fusion reactor structures. Although there are indications that RAFM steel could be viable for fusion applications at temperatures up to 600°C, the maximum operating temperature will be determined by the creep properties of the structural material and the breeder material compatibility with the structural material. Due to the relative paucity of available creep data on F82H steel compared to other alloys such as Grade 91 steel, micromechanical models are sought for simulating creep based on relevant deformation mechanisms. As a point of departure, this work recalibrates a model form that was previously proposed for Grade 91 steel to match creep curves for F82H steel. Due to the large number of parameters (9) and cost of the nonlinear simulations, an automated approach for tuning the parameters is pursued using a recently developed Bayesian optimization for functional output (BOFO) framework (Huang et al., 2021, “Bayesian optimization of functional output in inverse problems,” Optim. Eng., 22, pp. 2553–2574). Incorporating extensions such as batch sequencing and weighted experimental load cases into BOFO, a reasonably small error between experimental and simulated creep curves at two load levels is achieved in a reasonable number of iterations. In conclusion, validation with an additional creep curve provides confidence in the fitted parameters obtained from the automated calibration procedure to describe the creep behavior of F82H steel.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Yes, No, Maybe So: Human Factors Considerations for Fostering Calibrated Trust in Foundation Models Under Uncertainty

High-stakes analytical environments require analysts to evaluate evidence and generate conclusions to inform critical decisions often under conditions of uncertainty. Probabilistic decision-making based on incomplete or inaccurate information can reduce productivity, compromise national interests, and endanger public safety. Researchers are developing expert systems built on foundation models (FMs) to support analysts’ decision-making processes by enabling human-artificial intelligence (AI) teaming, in part through the quantification and expression of uncertainty information. As FMs continue to mature, it is imperative to correspondingly consider analysts’ needs for appropriately interpreting and using uncertainty information. However, prior research indicates that it remains unclear how analysts engage with FM-generated uncertainty information and the extent to which these interactions influence trust in, and reliance on, expert systems. We plan to review the state of the science and conduct an exploratory, qualitative study to (a) understand how properly communicated uncertainty can foster calibrated trust and appropriate reliance and (b) identify approaches for effectively conveying FM-generated uncertainty information during analytical workflows. We will administer semi-structured interviews with analysts from a specific high-stakes analytical environment to collect their current experiences with job-related uncertainty and their impressions when viewing FM-generated uncertainty information. During the interview protocol, participants will be presented with several different FM outputs and invited to discuss their thoughts and beliefs about the uncertainty information displayed. Participants may provide insights into how trust and reliance may be influenced by uncertainty. The results of this study will help us to better understand how analysts currently interpret and use uncertainty information. Our findings may inform human factors recommendations for effectively conveying uncertainty information to foster calibrated trust in, and appropriate reliance on, expert systems. Interaction designers and FM developers can use this knowledge to enhance human-AI teaming and ensure the responsible deployment of FM-based expert systems in analytical workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Addressing Low-Cost Methane Sensor Calibration Shortcomings with Machine Learning

Quantifying methane emissions is essential for meeting near-term climate goals and is typically carried out using methane concentrations measured downwind of the source. One major source of methane that is important to observe and promptly remediate is fugitive emissions from oil and gas production sites but installing methane sensors at the thousands of sites within a production basin is expensive. In recent years, relatively inexpensive metal oxide sensors have been used to measure methane concentrations at production sites. Current methods used to calibrate metal oxide sensors have been shown to have significant shortcomings, resulting in limited confidence in methane concentrations generated by these sensors. To address this, we investigate using machine learning (ML) to generate a model that converts metal oxide sensor output to methane mixing ratios. To generate test data, two metal oxide sensors, TGS2600 and TGS2611, were collocated with a trace methane analyzer downwind of controlled methane releases. Over the duration of the measurements, the trace gas analyzer’s average methane mixing ratio was 2.40 ppm with a maximum of 147.6 ppm. The average calculated methane mixing ratios for the TGS2600 and TGS2611 using the ML algorithm were 2.42 ppm and 2.40 ppm, with maximum values of 117.5 ppm and 106.3 ppm, respectively. A comparison of histograms generated using the analyzer and metal oxide sensors mixing ratios shows overlap coefficients of 0.95 and 0.94 for the TGS2600 and TGS2611, respectively. Overall, our results showed there was a good agreement between the ML-derived metal oxide sensors’ mixing ratios and those generated using the more accurate trace gas analyzer. This suggests that the response of lower-cost sensors calibrated using ML could be used to generate mixing ratios with precision and accuracy comparable to higher priced trace methane analyzers. This would improve confidence in low-cost sensors’ response, reduce the cost of sensor deployment, and allow for timely and accurate tracking of methane emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Calibration of multisite raters for prospective visual reads of amyloid PET scans

Abstract INTRODUCTION In multicenter Alzheimer's disease studies, amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) visual reads are typically performed centrally by a few experts. Incorporating a broader reader network enhances scalability and generalizability. METHODS Ten neuroimaging experts from eight Alzheimer's Disease Research Centers (ADRCs) visually read 180 amyloid PET scans (30 scans and 15 duplicate scans for each of four tracers, imaged across a wide variety of scanners), using preferred reading software without anatomical imaging or quantitation. Scans were classified as elevated or non‐elevated per tracer‐specific criteria. Inter‐ and intra‐rater agreement was assessed. RESULTS Inter‐rater agreement was substantial (Fleiss’κ = 0.78), with full consensus on 69% of scans. Inter‐rater reliability was substantial to perfect across tracers (Fleiss’κ = 0.70–0.87). Intra‐rater agreement was substantial to perfect (Cohen'sκ = 0.79‐1). Scans with intermediate (10–40 Centiloid) quantitation had lower reader agreement. DISCUSSION A multicenter expert network achieved substantial agreement classifying amyloid PET scans. These scans provide a standard for reader training and reliability assurance in future studies. Highlights Calibration methods ensure reliable amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) visual reads across multiple raters. Substantial agreement is possible across readers using their preferred tools. Agreement is also substantial regardless of the amyloid PET tracer used. Scans with intermediate (10–40 Centiloid) quantitation have lower reader agreement. The calibration set will become a training tool for amyloid PET visual read studies.

Neurosciences & Neurology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian calibration of bubble size dynamics applied to CO 2 gas fermenters

To accelerate the scale-up of gaseous CO 2 fermentation reactors, computational models need to predict gas-to-liquid mass transfer which requires capturing the bubble size dynamics, i.e. bubble breakup and coalescence. However, the applicability of existing models beyond air–water mixtures remains to be established. Here, an inverse modeling approach, accelerated with a neural network surrogate, calibrates the breakup and coalescence closure models, that are used in class methods for population balance modeling (PBM). The calibration is performed based on experimental results obtained in a CO 2 -air–water-coflowing bubble column reactor. Bayesian inference is used to account for noise in the experimental dataset and bias in the simulation results. To accurately capture gas holdup and interphase mass transfer, the results show that the breakage rate needs to be increased by one order of magnitude. In conclusion, the inferred model parameters are then used on a separate configuration and shown to also improve bubble size distribution predictions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Calibration-free analysis of Li isotope ratios using laser ablation and laser absorption spectroscopy

We introduce a rapid, calibration-free, all-optical method for high-precision lithium isotope ratio measurements in solid materials using laser ablation combined with tunable laser absorption spectroscopy. A new asynchronous acquisition method is used to acquire time-resolved, high-resolution spectra of the 6Li and 7Li D1 and D2 transitions near 671 nm. Isotope ratios and atomic column densities are extracted from measured spectra via a physics-based fitting model including hyperfine structure. Under 1 Torr air, spectra recorded = 0.75 ms after plasma onset exhibit narrow linewidths corresponding to Doppler temperatures = 400 K, enabling resolution of the isotope peaks with high signal-to-noise ratios. Analysis of LiAlO2 samples with varying 6Li:7Li ratios demonstrates isotopic precisions of 0.6–1.7% for spectra acquired in 30 s. Isotope ratios determined from the spectral fits show accuracy within –0.3% to –1.7% of reference ICP-MS measurements without requiring calibration to external standards. By eliminating sample preparation and enabling spatially resolved isotopic mapping, this method offers a rapid analysis approach to lithium isotope determination in solid materials relevant to nuclear energy, safeguards, and geochemistry.

Phillips, Mark C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Groundwater Response and Uncertainty in Beaver‐Influenced Mountainous Floodplains Using Machine Learning‐Based Model Calibration

Abstract Beavers ( Castor canadensis ) alter river corridor hydrology by creating ponds and inundating floodplains, and thereby improving surface water storage. However, the impact of inundation on groundwater, particularly in mountainous alluvial floodplains with permeable gravel/cobble layers overlain by a soil layer, remains uncertain. Numerical modeling across various floodplain structures considers topographic and sediment complexity and multidirectional flow, linking inundation to groundwater response. This study develops a model‐data integration workflow to address uncertainty in groundwater response to beaver‐induced inundations in a mountainous alluvial floodplain in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Uncertain factors include seasonal hydrologic dynamics, hydraulic conductivities, floodplain structures, and meteorological forcings. We employed an ensemble of groundwater models, based on geophysical and hydrologic data, with machine learning‐based calibration using a neural density estimator. This allowed us to quantify the vertical flux from the soil layer to the permeable gravel bed, the down‐valley underflow within the gravel bed, and their ratios. Results show a significant increase in the vertical flux relative to down‐valley underflow, from 2 during dry pond periods to 20 during wet periods, serving as an analogy for conditions without and with beaver ponds. The study highlights the influence of floodplain structure on groundwater storage, water balance, and water quality impacted by beaver ponds. A thick gravel bed layer, with a large down‐valley underflow, minimizes the effect of beaver‐induced inundation on water quality. We emphasize the need for field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure and improved characterization of evapotranspiration changes to reduce uncertainty in groundwater response. Plain Language Summary Beavers change the flow of water in river corridors by creating ponds, expanding wetlands, and flooding floodplains. This increases surface water area, promotes plant growth, and enhances biodiversity. However, the impact of this flooding on groundwater flow is not well understood, especially in mountainous areas with gravel layers where water moves easily beneath soil. In this study, we used numerical modeling to investigate how beaver ponds influence groundwater in a mountainous floodplain of the Upper Colorado River Basin. We adapted a machine learning method to validate our numerical models using multiple field data sets. Our findings show that beaver ponds significantly increase vertical water flow from the soil to the gravel during wet periods, compared to when the ponds are fully drained. The study also highlights the importance of floodplain structure in controlling both water flow in gravel layers along the river direction and vertical flow from the soil to the gravel with the presence of beavers. To reduce uncertainty in groundwater response, we emphasize the need for more field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure, hydraulic properties, and evapotranspiration changes. Key Points Floodplain structures and hydraulic conductivities are important for groundwater response with beaver ponds in mountainous floodplains Large down‐valley underflow in permeability‐stratified floodplains reduces beaver‐induced impacts on groundwater storage and water quality Machine learning‐based model calibration methods are effective for estimating posterior distributions of groundwater model parameters

Wang, Lijing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calibration and validation of the foundation for a multiphase strength model for tin

In this work, the Common Model of Multi-phase Strength and Equation of State (CMMP) model was applied to tin. Specifically, calibrations of the strength-specific elements of the CMMP foundation were developed with a combination of experiments and theory, and then the model was validated experimentally. The first element of the foundation is a multi-phase analytic treatment of the melt temperature and the shear modulus for the solid phases. These models were parameterized for each phase based on ab initio calculations using the software VASP (Vienna Ab initio Simulations Package) based on density functional theory. The shear modulus model for the ambient phase was validated with ultrasonic sound speed measurements as a function of pressure and temperature. The second element of the foundation is a viscoplastic strength model for the phase, upon which strength for inaccessible higher-pressure phases can be scaled as necessary. The stress–strain response of tin was measured at strain rates of 10 -3 to 3 x 10 3 s -1 and temperatures ranging from 87 to 373 K. The Preston–Tonks–Wallace (PTW) strength model was fit to that data using Bayesian model calibration. For validation, six forward and two reverse Taylor impact experiments were performed at different velocities to measure large plastic deformation of tin at strain rates up to ⁠10 5 s -1 . The PTW model accurately predicted the deformed shapes of the cylinders, with modest discrepancies attributed to the inability of PTW to capture the effects of twinning and dynamic recrystallization. Some material in the simulations of higher velocity Taylor cylinders reached the melting temperature, thus testing the multiphase model because of the presence of a second phase, the liquid. In simulations using a traditional modeling approach, the abrupt reduction of strength upon melt resulted in poor predictions of the deformed shape and non-physical temperatures. With CMMP, the most deformed material points evolved gradually to a mixed solid–liquid but never a fully liquid state, never fully lost strength, stayed at the melt temperature as the latent heat of fusion was absorbed, and predicted the deformed shape well.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Raman scattering of rhenium for secondary pressure calibration

With the increasing number of 100 s GPa experiments in the diamond anvil cell (DAC), improved accuracy in secondary pressure calibrations to extreme pressures is essential. The rhenium equation of state has been proposed as a pressure calibrant via x-ray diffraction with potentially broad applications as it is commonly used as a gasket material in DAC experiments. In this work, we conducted Raman spectroscopy experiments on rhenium in the DAC and report the pressure shift of the E2g mode, a refined high-pressure C44 and mode-Grüneisen parameter above 200 GPa. We used flat, beveled, and toroidal diamond anvils under quasi-hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic conditions. By measuring the E2g mode from the culet edge to the center, we analyzed pressure distribution based on culet type and distance from the anvil center. The shift in the E2g mode can be expressed as a function of pressure, and diamond edge measurements appear reliable across all anvil types. Comparing the center and edge pressures reveals anvil cupping, offering insights into predicting or preventing anvil failure during materials properties measurements at extreme conditions.

Diamond anvil cells↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mass calibration of DES Year-3 clusters via SPT-3G CMB cluster lensing

We measure the stacked lensing signal in the direction of galaxy clusters in the DarkEnergy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) redMaPPer sample, using cosmic microwave background (CMB)temperature data from SPT-3G, the third-generation CMB camera on the South PoleTelescope (SPT). Here, we estimate the lensing signal using temperature maps constructed fromthe initial 2 years of data from the SPT-3G 'Main' survey, covering 1500 deg$^{2}$ of the Southernsky. We then use this lensing signal as a proxy for the mean cluster mass of the DES sample. Thethermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) signal, which can contaminate the lensing signal if notaddressed, is isolated and removed from the data before obtaining the mass measurement. In thiswork, we employ three versions of the redMaPPer catalogue: a Flux-Limited sample containing 8865clusters, a Volume-Limited sample with 5391 clusters, and a Volume&Redshift-Limited sample with4450 clusters. For the three samples, we detect the CMB lensing signal at a significance of12.4σ, 10.5σ and 10.2σ and find the mean cluster masses to be M$_{200m}$ = 1.66±0.13 [stat.]± 0.03 [sys.], 1.97±0.18 [stat.]± 0.05 [sys.],and 2.11±0.20 [stat.]± 0.05 [sys.]×10$^{14}$ M$_{⊙}$, respectively. Thisis a factor of ∼ 2 improvement relative to the precision of measurements with previousgenerations of SPT surveys and the most constraining cluster mass measurements using CMB clusterlensing to date. Overall, we find no significant tensions between our results and masses given byredMaPPer mass-richness scaling relations of previous works, which were calibrated using CMBcluster lensing, optical weak lensing, and velocity dispersion measurements from variouscombinations of DES, SDSS and Planck data. We then divide our sample into 3 redshift and 3richness bins, finding no significant discrepancies with optical weak-lensing calibrated masses inthese bins. We forecast a 5.7% constraint on the mean cluster mass of the DES Y3 sample withthe complete SPT-3G surveys when using both temperature and polarization data and including anadditional ∼ 1400 deg$^{2}$ of observations from the 'Extended' SPT-3G survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Simons Observatory: impact of bandpass, polarization angle and calibration uncertainties on small-scale power spectrum analysis

We study the effects due to mismatches in passbands, polarization angles, and temperature and polarization calibrations in the context of the upcoming cosmic microwave background experiment Simons Observatory (SO). Using the SO multi-frequency likelihood, we estimate the bias and the degradation of constraining power in cosmological and astrophysical foreground parameters assuming different levels of knowledge of the instrumental effects. We find that incorrect but reasonable assumptions about the values ofall the systematics examined here can have significant effects on cosmologicalanalyses, hence requiring marginalization approaches at the likelihood level.When doing so, we find that the most relevant effect is due to bandpass shifts. When marginalizing over them, the posteriors of parameters describing astrophysical microwave foregrounds (such as radio point sources or dust) get degraded, while cosmological parameters constraints are not significantly affected.Marginalization over polarization angles with up to 0.25$^{°}$ uncertainty causes an irrelevant bias ≲ 0.05 σ in all parameters.Marginalization over calibration factors in polarization broadens the constraints on the effective number of relativistic degrees of freedom N$_{eff}$ by a factor 1.2, interpreted here as a proxy parameter for non standard model physics targeted by high-resolution CMB measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

ML-based calibration and control of the GlueX Central Drift Chamber

The GlueX Central Drift Chamber (CDC) in Hall D at Jefferson Lab, used for detecting and tracking charged particles, is calibrated and controlled during data taking using a Gaussian process. The system dynamically adjusts the high voltage applied to the anode wires inside the chamber in response to changing environmental and experimental conditions such that the gain is stabilized. Control policies have been established to manage the CDC's behavior. These policies are activated when the model's uncertainty exceeds a configurable threshold or during human-initiated tests during normal production running. Finally, we demonstrate the system reduces the time detector experts dedicate to calibration of the data offline, leading to a marked decrease in computing resource usage without compromising detector performance.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving tropical cyclone rapid intensification forecasts with satellite measurements of sea surface salinity and calibrated machine learning

Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TC) is a mission known for large errors. One under-researched factor that affects TC intensification is salinity, which is important for density stratification in certain ocean regions and can affect the surface enthalpy flux under a strengthening hurricane. To investigate the impact and efficacy of using salinity information in state-of-the-art forecasting, we use a statistical model consisting of a variety of machine learning (ML) methods. For salinity data, we use satellite measurements of pre-storm sea surface salinity (SSS) as a proxy for the salinity stratification. We train and test the model on various ocean basins, including the Atlantic, eastern North Pacific and western North Pacific. A calibrator is trained on top of the ML models to correct and enhance probability forecasts. The calibrator significantly improves probability forecasts relative to recent works. The ML model performance is improved with the addition of SSS in the Eastern North Pacific, western North Pacific, and the Caribbean subregion of the North Atlantic, and the overall model performance is better than previous studies. SSS decreases model skill for a model trained on the full Atlantic basin. In the Indian Ocean, SSS is also notably correlated with RI occurrence, but the TC samples are not sufficient to train ML models.

hurricane↗
DOE OSTI2025

DAmodel: hierarchical Bayesian modelling of DA white dwarfs for spectrophotometric calibration

We use hierarchical Bayesian modelling to calibrate a network of 32 all-sky faint DA white dwarf (DA WD) spectrophotometric standards (⁠16.5 < V , 19.5⁠) alongside three CALSPEC standards, from 912 Å to 32 μm. The framework is the first of its kind to jointly infer photometric zero points and WD parameters (surface gravity log g⁠, effective temperature T eff ⁠, extinction A V ⁠, dust relation parameter R V ) by simultaneously modelling both photometric and spectroscopic data. We model panchromatic Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 (HST/WFC3) UVIS and IR photometry, HST/STIS UV spectroscopy, and ground-based optical spectroscopy to sub-per cent precision. Photometric residuals for the sample are the lowest yet yielding < 0.004 mag RMS on average from the UV to the NIR, achieved by jointly inferring time-dependent changes in system sensitivity and WFC3/IR count-rate nonlinearity. Our GPU-accelerated implementation enables efficient sampling via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, critical for exploring the high-dimensional posterior space. The hierarchical nature of the model enables population analysis of intrinsic WD and dust parameters. Inferred spectral energy distributions from this model will be essential for calibrating the James Webb Space Telescope as well as next-generation surveys, including Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope.

methods: statistical↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Dark Energy Survey supernova program: a reanalysis of cosmology results and evidence for evolving dark energy with an updated Type Ia supernova calibration

We present improved cosmological constraints from a re-analysis of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 5-year sample of Type Ia supernovae (DES-SN5YR). This re-analysis includes an improved photometric cross-calibration, recent white dwarf observations to cross-calibrate between DES and low-redshift surveys, retraining the salt3 light-curve model and fixing a numerical approximation in the host-galaxy colour law. Our fully recalibrated sample, which we call DES-Dovekie, comprises ~1600 likely Type Ia SNe from DES and ~200 low-redshift SNe from other surveys. With DES-Dovekie, we obtain Ω m = 0.330 ± 0.015 in flat Lambda-cold dark matter (⁠ΛCDM) which changes Ω m by –0.022 compared to DES-SN5YR. Combining DES-Dovekie with cosmic microwave background data from Planck, Atacama Cosmology Telescope, and South Pole Telescope and the DESI DR2 measurements in a flat CDM cosmology, we find ω 0 = –0.803 ± 0.054 and ω a = –0.72 ± 0.21⁠. Our results hold a significance of 3.2σ, reduced from 4.2σ for DES-SN5YR, to reject the null hypothesis that the data are compatible with the cosmological constant. This significance is equivalent to a Bayesian model preference odds of approximately 5:1 in favour of the flat ω 0 ω a CDM model. Using generally accepted thresholds for model preference, our updated data exhibits only a weak preference for evolving dark energy.

dark energy↗