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Results for “Capacity Expansion Model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating the impact of tariff-driven behind-the-meter storage operation on distribution grid investments

Increasing growth of distributed solar photovoltaics (PV) and electric vehicles (EV) can strain local distribution networks and require costly upgrades. Distributed battery storage, often deployed alongside PV, can be used to mitigate those costs, depending on how batteries are operated. This study evaluates the potential deferral value of distributed battery storage across a range of tariff structures, focusing on the rate structures most commonly available to residential customers today and related variants. Deferrals are evaluated with a least-cost distribution grid expansion optimization model to identify requirements on line reconductoring, transformer upgrades, and voltage regulator installations under each tariff. Results show that TOU rates and net billing tariffs can yield meaningful deferral value, depending on specific tariff structure features. Under the best performing tariff structure tested, storage produced a median annualized deferral value of $7.18 per kW of storage capacity ( kW S ) across all feeders in the sample, though deferral values were considerably larger for feeders with peak loads that coincide with utility system peak, i.e., timing of TOU peak period. In contrast, under an unrestricted TOU design with no restrictions on grid charging or discharging, the median deferral value was $0/ kW S illustrating the critical importance of tariff structure details.

Rodriguez-Garcia, Luis↗
DOE OSTI2026

Strategies for Flood Resilience and Grid Investment Among Iowa's Electric Distribution Utilities

Flooding poses a growing threat to Iowa's electric distribution system, yet utilities face significant data and modeling challenges in planning effective resilience investments. This report provides a foundational assessment of how distribution utilities in Iowa, investor-owned, municipal, and cooperative, approach resilience planning, with a focus on flood risk. It combines hazard characterization, review of state and utility practices, and application of NLR's Energy Resilience Analysis for Distribution Systems (ERAD) and Capacity Expansion Decision Support for Distribution Networks (CADET) tools. Using FEMA floodplains, Iowa Flood Center depth grids, and utility infrastructure data, the analysis quantifies asset exposure, simulates outage risks, and evaluates resilience strategies such as pole hardening, undergrounding, and substation protection. Results indicate that while feeder-level upgrades provide incremental benefits, the most significant reductions in outage risk are achieved through targeted substation interventions. The report highlights key data gaps, such as limited elevation data and fragility functions, and underscores the need for probability-weighted investment frameworks to address both frequent and catastrophic flood events. These insights aim to support utilities, state agencies, and federal partners in prioritizing resilience investments that safeguard Iowa's electric grid against future flooding.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1987

Electrochemical impregnation of nickel hydroxide in porous electrodes

The electrochemical impregnation of nickel hydroxide in porous electrode was investigated both experimentally and theoretically. The loading level and plaque expansion were the most important parameters to be considered. The effects of applied current density, stirring, ratio of solution to electrode volume and pH were identified. A novel flow through electrochemical impregnation is proposed in which the electrolyte is forced through the porous nickel plaque. The thickening of the plaque can be reduced while maintaining high loading capacity. A mathematical model is presented which describes the transport of the nitrate, nickel and hydroxyl ions and the consecutive heterogeneous electrochemical reduction of nitrate and the homogeneous precipitation reaction of nickel hydroxide. The distributions of precipitation rate and active material within the porous electrode are obtained. A semiempirical model is also proposed which takes into account the plugging of the pores.

Ho, Kuo-Chuan↗
NASA NTRS1993

PC4CAST: A tool for DSN load forecasting and capacity planning

Effectively planning the use and evolution of the Deep Space Network (DSN) is a complex problem involving many parameters. The tool that models many of these complexities, yet requires simple structured inputs and provides concise easy-to-understand metrics to aid in the planning process is discussed. The tool, PC4CAST, is used for both load forecasting (predicting how well planned that DSN resources meet expected demand) and as a decision support tool in the capacity-planning process (determining the relative benefits of capacity expansion options). It is now in use in the TDA Planning Office, has been used in numerous studies, and is also being used by the JPL Multimission Operations System Office (MOSO) as an integral part of Resource Allocation Team activities. Experience using the tool has helped to identify additional requirements that will further improve the planning process, which can be met by future PC4CAST versions.

Loyola, S. J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling: global potentials and impacts under constraining factors

Forests-based measures such as afforestation/reforestation (A/R) and reducing deforestation (RDF) are considered promising options to mitigate climate change, yet their mitigation potentials are limited by economic and biophysical factors that are largely uncertain. The range of mitigation potential estimates from integrated assessment models raises concerns about the capacity of land systems to provide realistic, cost-effective and permanent land-based mitigation. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to quantify the economic mitigation potential of forests-based measures by simulating a climate policy including a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. In addition, we assess how constraining unused arable land (UAL) availability, forestland expansion rates, and global bioenergy demand may influence the forests-based mitigation potential by simulating scenarios with alternative combinations of constraints. Results show that the average forests-based mitigation potential in 2020–2050 increases from 738 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 86 Mha in the fully constrained scenario to 1394 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 146 Mha when all constraints are relaxed. Regional potentials in terms of A/R and RDF differ strongly between scenarios: unconstrained forest expansion rates mostly increase A/R potentials in northern regions (e.g., +120 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in North America); while unconstrained UAL conversion and low bioenergy demand mostly increase RDF potentials in tropical regions (e.g., +76 and +68 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in Southeast Asia, respectively). This study shows that forests-based mitigation is limited by many factors that constrain the rates of land use change across regions. These factors, often overlooked in modelling exercises, should be carefully addressed for understanding the role of forests in global climate mitigation and defining pledges towards the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Viability Assessment of Wind and Solar Renewable Energy Generation in Support of Nationwide Vehicle Electrification

In 2022, the U.S. transportation sector was the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the country, with the combination of passenger and commercial vehicles contributing 80% of these emissions. As adoption of passenger electric vehicles continues to climb, sights are being set on the electrification of heavy-duty commercial vehicle (HDCV) fleets. The sustainability of these shifts relies in part on the addition of significant renewable energy generation resources to both bolster the grid in the face of increased demand, and to prevent a shift in the source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the grid, as opposed to a true net reduction. Additionally, it is necessary to quantify the variations in economic viability across the country for these technologies as it pertains to their productive capabilities. Doing so will encourage investment and ensure that the transition to electrified HDCV fleets is commercially viable, as well as sustainable. In an effort to meet these goals, multiple computational frameworks are used to locate suitable land for renewable infrastructure development, and to quantify spatiotemporal variations in the potential energy generation and financial viability of development sites across the Unites States. First, the Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion tool (OR-SAGE) is used to assess the suitability of land for potential wind and solar energy development across the contiguous U.S. From there, resource data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) are used in concert with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Renewable Energy Potential (ReV) model to calculate the variation in potential generation capacity for each resource. Additionally, the capital and operational expenditures are calculated for an example configuration of each renewable technology. These measures are then used to calculate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of potential sites. All of these results are then processed and analyzed to determine where in the U.S. solar and wind energy are most viable. This viability is based on available generation potential, consistency and stability of energy generation over time, and economic viability with respect to LCOE.

Miller, Brandon [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000300169201)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Repowering: The Other Side of the Reliability Coin

Extreme weather, cracked backsheets, severe PID, poorly built modules, and installation flaws - all can compromise a solar plant's health and force repowering long before end of life. With more than 70% of U.S. PV capacity less than seven years old, the fleet is young, but its rapid expansion has introduced new materials and system designs that are still being tested under real-world conditions. As a result, reliability - not economics - is what most often drives repowering decisions. Repowering is frequently assumed to be an economically motivated choice, but our work shows that reliability concerns are the real trigger. Drawing from industry interviews, case studies, and modeling, we highlight the physical, electrical, and policy barriers owners face when deciding whether to repair, repower, or decommission. At the same time, repowering can create opportunities: renewed interconnection periods, improved energy yields, and strategic upgrades to extend system value. We present a quantitative framework using NLR's System Advisor Model (SAM) and PV in Circular Economy (PV ICE) tool to evaluate trade-offs across financial, material, and energy impacts. These findings provide practical guidance for navigating the realities of repowering today and underscore the critical role of reliability in shaping the future performance and sustainability of the PV fleet.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

The critical role of intrinsic defects and many-body interactions on the stability of MnBi2Te4

Intrinsic antisite defects pose a major challenge to understanding and predicting the exotic properties of the layered topological magnetic insulator MnBi2Te4 (MBT). In this work, we study the origin of the abundance of intrinsic defects in MBT, including many-body defect–defect interactions and many-body electronic correlations. Until now, ab initio methods have struggled to explain thermodynamic stability and properties influenced by defect behavior in MBT. We model native Mn–Bi antisite defects in MBT at finite temperatures using a cluster expansion that includes defect–defect interactions. To overcome the limitations of conventional density functional theory (DFT), we introduce a hybrid approach that incorporates high-accuracy quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) calculations, introducing missing correlations. This strategy allows for accurate estimation of defect energetics and finite-temperature properties. We compute the configurational free energy, defect concentration, and configurational heat capacity, revealing a second-order order–disorder phase transition near the experimental synthesis temperature. Our study provides the first theoretical insight into the thermodynamics of intrinsic defects in MBT. The negative free energy relative to pristine MBT at synthesis temperatures indicates that Mn–Bi antisite formation is thermodynamically spontaneous. We also present a broadly applicable general framework for correcting low-level theoretical theories using highly accurate many-body corrections from QMC.

Ghaffar, Abdul [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000241190168)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Risk assessment of wellbore leakage during underground hydrogen storage

The expansion of renewable energy sources would require large-scale energy storage options to overcome the intermittent nature of these sources. Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs offers a scalable and practical energy storage solution. These reservoirs are chosen for their availability and large capacity, but the unique properties of hydrogen raise concerns about potential leakage pathways, particularly through wellbores. In this study, we develop and apply, for the first time, reduced-order models (ROMs) specifically designed for efficient leakage risk prediction in UHS systems operating in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. Using 3,000 high-fidelity simulation scenarios, we examine the influence of 11 key parameters, including reservoir and aquifer depths, wellbore permeability and porosity, initial saturations of water, oil and gas fractions (hydrogen, light, intermediate, and heavy hydrocarbons), reservoir pressure multiplier, and the aquifer-to-reservoir volume ratio, to simulate leakage behavior over a 1,000-year timescale. We train ROMs using a two-step classification-regression approach, achieving R 2 values exceeding 99 % across all targets. These ROMs effectively capture the leakage evolution and identify critical controls of leakage, guiding the design of mitigation strategies. Results indicate that gas leakage occurs in about 27 % of scenarios as early as five years post-operation, reaching volumes of up to 106 ft3. Oil leakage is less frequent (~17 %) and typically begins decades later. Our findings also show that hydrogen often migrates first, owing to its smaller molecular size and higher buoyancy, followed by heavier hydrocarbons. Over time, these heavier components contribute significantly to the total leaked volume, reinforcing the need for targeted monitoring and remediation strategies. Our analysis highlights that deeper storage reservoirs, shallower aquifers, and low-permeability wellbores significantly reduce leakage risks. In conclusion, this work offers a robust framework for risk-informed UHS deployment, supporting energy security through reliable large-scale hydrogen storage while safeguarding environmental integrity.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS1991

Measurement of the cooling capacity of an RMC-Cryosystems Model LTS 4.5-025 closed-cycle helium refrigerator

The cooling capacity of a recently purchased RMC-Cryosystems Model LTS 4.5-025 closed-cycle He refrigerator was measured over the range 4-35 K. It is found that the nominal cooling capacity of 250 mW is only met or exceeded over a narrow temperature range around 4.3 + or - 0.5 K, and that, above this range, there exists a considerable region of much lower cooling capacity, not exceeding about 100 mW. It is believed that this behavior results from use of a fixed-aperture Joule-Thompson expansion valve, and might be alleviated if the J-T valve could be adjusted to compensate for changing flow within the 5-20 K temperature range. Present performance may severely limit or prevent effective use in applications where an irreducible heat inflow exists which is greater than about 100 mW, yet substantially less than the quoted capacity at about 4 K.

De Zafra, R. L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Vehicle-to-Grid planning framework incorporating electric vehicle user equilibrium and distribution network flexibility enhancement

The rapid surge in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, coupled with advancements in charging technologies, emphasizes the critical necessity for expanding EV recharging infrastructure. Simultaneously, the Distribution Network (DN) encounters escalating challenges in meeting charging demand during peak traffic periods. Consequently, there is a mounting demand for the deployment of innovative Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technologies to augment the DN’s flexibility in power dispatch and alleviate travel costs for EV users. Hence, this paper proposes an EV-user-equilibrium-(UE)-constrained V2G planning framework that enhances flexibility in the DN. The framework aims to ascertain the optimal placement and capacity of EV charging stations (EVCSs) and V2G charging piles within the Transportation Network (TN). It takes into account the equilibrium condition stemming from competitive EV charging and routing behaviors alongside the optimal expansion of DN energy resources to accommodate the electricity supplied by the V2G piles. This study commences by analyzing EV drivers’ travel decisions, considering the influence of charging and V2G pile locations and sizes. Subsequently, we tackle the Traffic Assignment Problem with User Equilibrium (TAP-UE) model to characterize the steady-state traffic flow distribution of EVs. Following this, we formulate the optimization model for the Coordinated Power and Transportation Network (CPTN), which encompasses the optimal expansion of DN facilities and traffic flow regulation under UE conditions. To mitigate the computational complexity associated with the V2G planning model, we introduce a series of linearization methods to obtain a manageable Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) solution. Finally, to validate the efficacy of our proposed planning framework, we apply it to two test systems, including a real-world case study. Through these case studies, we explore the necessity and potential benefits of V2G technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1989

Lunar power system summary of studies for the lunar enterprise task force NASA-office of exploration

The capacity of global power systems must be increased by a factor of ten to provide the predicted power needs of electric power by the year 2050. The Lunar Power System (LPS) would collect solar energy at power bases located on opposing limbs of the moon as seen from Earth. LPS can provide dependable, economic, renewable, and environmentally benign solar energy to Earth. A preliminary engineering and cash flow model of the LPS was developed. Results are shown for a system scaled to a peak capacity of 355 GWe on Earth and to provide 13,600 GWe-Yrs of energy over a 70 year life cycle of construction and full operation. The growth in capacity of the reference system from start of installation on the moon in 2005 to completion of its nominal life cycle in the year 2070 is shown. World needs for power could be accommodated by expansion in capacity of the reference LPS beyond 344 GWe. This would be done by steadily incorporating newer technology during full operation and by establishing additional bases. The results presented encourage consideration of a faster paced program than is assumed herein.

Criswell, David R.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Paleotribological models using preserved fossil tissue properties reveal functional significance of Eurasian mammoth dental evolution

Eurasian mammoths (Mammuthus) underwent substantial modifications in molar morphology as later-diverging species evolved progressively thinner enamel and increased enamel crest complexity. These features have been hypothesized to reduce whole-tooth wear and extend dental longevity as increasingly graze-dominated diets evolved within the lineage. This hypothesis has yet to be directly tested. Here, in this study, we developed an in-silico wear model using experimentally derived wear rates from fossil and extant proboscidean dental tissues. The models revealed that shifts in tissue topology do not affect whole-tooth wear rate, as inverse trends in lamellar frequency and enamel thickness preserve a consistent surface enamel area fraction; the determining factor of wear. Rather, topological shifts produce a wear-emergent secondary occlusal surface with greater numbers of triturating crests that create a regular, low-relief, file-like shearing pavement. These changes in occlusal architecture likely directly impacted the mastication capacity of Mammuthus dentitions, facilitating their dietary expansion to incorporate fibrous, lower-nutrient graze.

Dental wear↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sustainable Triacetic Acid Lactone Production from Sugarcane by Fermentation and Crystallization

Triacetic acid lactone (TAL) has the potential to serve as a bioderived platform chemical for commercial products including sorbic acid and recyclable polydiketoenamine plastics. In this study, we leveraged BioSTEAM to design, simulate, and evaluate (via techno-economic analysis, TEA, and life cycle assessment, LCA) TAL production from sugarcane. We experimentally characterized TAL solubility, calibrated solubility models, and designed a process to separate TAL from fermentation broths by crystallization. The biorefinery could produce TAL at a minimum product selling price (MPSP) of $\$3.73$–5.86·kg –1 (5th–95th percentiles; baseline at $\$4.60$·kg –1 ) and a carbon intensity (CI) of 5.31 [2.60–8.71] kg CO 2 -eq·kg –1 , which could enable financially viable, low-CI production of sorbic acid and polydiketoenamines. To drive down costs and CI, we explored the theoretical fermentation space (titer, yield, productivity combinations), operation scheduling and capacity expansion strategies (e.g., integrated sorghum processing), and potential separation improvements (mitigating TAL loss through pH control). Advancements in key design and technological parameters could further reduce MPSP by 51% to $\$2.26$·kg –1 [$\$1.97$–2.80·kg –1 ] and CI by 43% to 3.05 [1.91–4.15] kg CO 2 -eq·kg –1 . This research highlights the ability of agile TEA-LCA to screen promising designs, navigate sustainability trade-offs, prioritize research needs, and chart quantitative roadmaps to advance bioproducts and biofuels.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1989

Queuing theory models for computer networks

A set of simple queuing theory models which can model the average response of a network of computers to a given traffic load has been implemented using a spreadsheet. The impact of variations in traffic patterns and intensities, channel capacities, and message protocols can be assessed using them because of the lack of fine detail in the network traffic rates, traffic patterns, and the hardware used to implement the networks. A sample use of the models applied to a realistic problem is included in appendix A. Appendix B provides a glossary of terms used in this paper. This Ames Research Center computer communication network is an evolving network of local area networks (LANs) connected via gateways and high-speed backbone communication channels. Intelligent planning of expansion and improvement requires understanding the behavior of the individual LANs as well as the collection of networks as a whole.

Galant, David C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Computational Thermochemistry of Jet Fuels and Rocket Propellants

The design of new high-energy density molecules as candidates for jet and rocket fuels is an important goal of modern chemical thermodynamics. The NASA Glenn Research Center is home to a database of thermodynamic data for over 2000 compounds related to this goal, in the form of least-squares fits of heat capacities, enthalpies, and entropies as functions of temperature over the range of 300 - 6000 K. The chemical equilibrium with applications (CEA) program written and maintained by researchers at NASA Glenn over the last fifty years, makes use of this database for modeling the performance of potential rocket propellants. During its long history, the NASA Glenn database has been developed based on experimental results and data published in the scientific literature such as the standard JANAF tables. The recent development of efficient computational techniques based on quantum chemical methods provides an alternative source of information for expansion of such databases. For example, it is now possible to model dissociation or combustion reactions of small molecules to high accuracy using techniques such as coupled cluster theory or density functional theory. Unfortunately, the current applicability of reliable computational models is limited to relatively small molecules containing only around a dozen (non-hydrogen) atoms. We propose to extend the applicability of coupled cluster theory- often referred to as the 'gold standard' of quantum chemical methods- to molecules containing 30-50 non-hydrogen atoms. The centerpiece of this work is the concept of local correlation, in which the description of the electron interactions- known as electron correlation effects- are reduced to only their most important localized components. Such an advance has the potential to greatly expand the current reach of computational thermochemistry and thus to have a significant impact on the theoretical study of jet and rocket propellants.

Crawford, T. Daniel↗
NASA NTRS1978

A wide bandwidth CCD buffer memory system

A prototype system was implemented to demonstrate that CCD's can be applied advantageously to the problem of low power digital storage and particularly to the problem of interfacing widely varying data rates. CCD shift register memories (8K bit) were used to construct a feasibility model 128 K-bit buffer memory system. Serial data that can have rates between 150 kHz and 4.0 MHz can be stored in 4K-bit, randomly-accessible memory blocks. Peak power dissipation during a data transfer is less than 7 W, while idle power is approximately 5.4 W. The system features automatic data input synchronization with the recirculating CCD memory block start address. System expansion to accommodate parallel inputs or a greater number of memory blocks can be performed in a modular fashion. Since the control logic does not increase proportionally to increase in memory capacity, the power requirements per bit of storage can be reduced significantly in a larger system.

Siemens, K.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Performance Comparison Between NiH2 Dry Sinter and Slurry Electrode Cells

The electrical and thermal performance of dry sinter and slurry process electrode cells manufactured for the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) batteries have been characterized for a matrix of operating conditions over the temperature range from 14 to 86 F at various charge control levels. The dry sinter process electrode cells tested are similar to the onboard HST NiH2 cells. The slurry process electrode cells were developed to be less susceptible to electrode expansion and impedance changes with life. Both cell types were impregnated by the aqueous electrochemical process. Test conditions included standard capacity tests and electrical cycling using 96-minute cycling regimens incorporating gr depth-of-discharge (DOD) cycles. The dry sinter process electrodes have higher operating capacities to 1.20V/cell, but both electrode types have similar heat dissipation for the conditions tested. The results of the testing included cyclic heat generation during a typical 96-minute cycle, operating capacity data vs. cutoff voltage to generate a temperature-compensated voltage curve, and voltage characteristics suitable to develop a voltage prediction model. Analysis of data shows differences in the discharge voltage plateaus operating conditions evaluated. This is the basis for recommended changes in the battery charge control.

Armantrout, J. D.↗