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DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) Seismic Monitoring of CO 2 Injected for Enhanced Oil Recovery in Northern Michigan (Volume II.C)

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. This report describes the monitoring study conducted to assess the effectiveness of DAS (Distributed Acoustic Sensing) -based VSP (Vertical Seismic Profiling) technology for delineating CO 2 injected into the Silurian-age pinnacle reefs in northern Michigan, the host rocks for the MRCSP Phase III demonstration project. The DAS VSP study was conducted in the Chester 16 reef, one of several reefs in Otsego County Michigan that is operated by Core Energy, LLC of Traverse City, Michigan. Time-lapse DAS VSP was implemented at the Chester 16 reef to attempt to detect approximately 85,000 tonnes of CO 2 injected into the A-1 Carbonate and Brown Niagaran Formations. A baseline survey was conducted in February 2017 prior to injecting CO 2 and a repeat survey was conducted in August 2018. During the interim period between the baseline and repeat surveys, CO 2 was injected into the Chester 16 reef via the 6-16 injection well without production (withdrawal) of fluids from the reef. A grid of 181 source positions consisting of 44 vibrator positions, plus 137 dynamite shot locations, was used to give approximately continuous spatial coverage of the injection zone (A-1 Carbonate and upper Brown Niagaran) in the area between the two wells.

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DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) to Monitor CO 2 Migration in an Enhanced Oil Recovery Field in Northern Michigan

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. MRCSP conducted analysis of CO 2 flow patterns using distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired from the Chester 16 pinnacle reef located in Otsego County, Michigan. The reef has one injection well Chester 6-16 and one monitoring well Chester 8-16 where DTS is installed. DTS provides a means to track temperature within the wellbores in real time and characterize the migration patterns of CO 2 in the subsurface when DTS data is combined with other operational data such as the injection rates, bottomhole pressures and temperature. The primary objective of this study was to determine the distribution of CO 2 inflow zones in the A1 Carbonate and Brown Niagaran formations.

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DOE OSTI2020

Microseismic Monitoring Study to Assess the Potential for Induced Seismicity in a Depleted Oil Field in Northern Michigan

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. Microseismic monitoring is the passive recording of very small-scale seismic energy events occurring underground. Microseismic monitoring has been proposed as a monitoring technology for CCUS sites to monitor fracturing before it becomes sufficiently extensive to cause leakage. This study aimed to determine if CO 2 injection into the Niagaran pinnacle reefs in northern Michigan is likely to generate microseismic events. The Niagaran reefs are relatively small, closed features making it possible to observe a large pressure increase by injecting a relatively small volume of CO 2 . In this study, two microseismic monitoring events were conducted 39 months apart during re-pressurization of the Dover 33 reef to evaluate the potential for CO 2 -injection induced seismicity in Silurian-age carbonate reef depleted oil reservoirs.

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DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Monitoring Volume: A Summary of Monitoring Studies Conducted in Niagaran Carbonate Pinnacle Reefs During Enhanced Oil Recovery with CO 2

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. During the MRCSP Phase III monitoring period, over 1 million metric tons of CO 2 was injected into ten Silurian-age (Niagaran) pinnacle reef reservoirs in Otsego County, Michigan that are operated by Core Energy, LLC. There are over 800 pinnacle reefs in northern Michigan, and collectively, these geologic features have sufficient capacity to store several hundred million metric tons of CO 2 . Moreover, most of the reefs are oil-bearing and went through primary production in the 1970s and 1980s; therefore, by injecting CO 2 into the reefs, there is a real opportunity to realize additional (enhanced) oil recovery (EOR) and to permanently store CO 2 after EOR. A key objective of the MRCSP Phase III project is to evaluate the effectiveness of various technologies for monitoring CO 2 that has been injected into deep geologic formations. Monitoring may be required at CO 2 storage sites for a variety of reasons, including to meet UIC Class II (EOR sites) or Class VI (storage only sites) permit requirements or EPA greenhouse gas reporting rule requirements or to qualify for tax credits under the 45Q tax credit rule. The results of this monitoring study should prove useful to operators considering using carbonate pinnacle reefs of Northern Michigan for CO 2 storage.

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DOE OSTI2020

Geochemical Changes in Response to CO 2 Injection in a CO 2 -EOR Complex in Northern Michigan (Volume II.1)

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. The report describes the geochemical monitoring program under MRCSP to use stable and radiogenic isotope geochemistry in concert with analysis of general geochemical parameters of fluids and gases and analysis of core samples to determine geochemical processes occurring in the reef structure because of CO 2 injection. Specifically, brine and gas samples were collected and analyzed to determine changes occurring between reefs prior to and following CO 2 injection. The analytical results for general geochemical parameters were modeled with chemical equilibrium models to determine if the injection of CO 2 resulted in the mineral dissolution or precipitation. Finally, core samples were collected and analyzed to determine if there was evidence of dissolution features or mineral precipitation.

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DOE OSTI2020

State Charlton & MRCSP 1 Characterization Well Report

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. This report describes the efforts to drill and complete a well in the St. Peter sandstone for characterization and evaluation of storage potential in norther Michigan. However, as presented in this report, the well was not drilled and completed up to the intended target intervals due to drilling related difficulties. While the drilling issues were being resolved, the new Class VI injection well regulations were finalized by the US EPA. MRCSP efforts focused on evaluating CO 2 storage and containment using site characterization, modeling, and monitoring in conjunction with the ongoing CO 2 -EOR operations in the same area. This report describes work associated with the initial test well, the State Chester and MRCSP Well No. 1, drilled to a depth of about 7,968 feet TVD, and subsequently plugged and designated as temporarily abandoned. A high-level overview of data collected and analyzed is provided for shallower units.

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DOE OSTI2020

Regional Assessment for the CO 2 Storage Potential in the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. The report describes the regional analysis of the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend (NNPRT) in Northern Michigan as part of the MRCSP programs Regional Assessment goals. The goal of this task was to perform an initial assessment of the geologic storage capacity and injectivity of the Northern Fairway of Michigan’s Niagaran Reef Trend. This was achieved through three main objectives: 1) development of a reef atlas, 2) understanding the regional trends in geology, and 3) estimating CO 2 and CO 2 -EOR resources. Data collected across multiple subtasks were integrated into a mappable database that could be accessed from many of the leading software. The reef atlas was used to map the reefs and associated characteristics across the entire NNPRT. Several methodologies were explored to estimate the CO 2 and CO 2 -EOR resources across the trend which included three scenarios: 1) storage only using fluid substitution and volumetric estimations, 2) CO 2 -EOR which applied proximity analysis concepts and measured performance metrics from the Core Energy reefs to predict performance at all oil reefs, and 3) enhanced storage scenario which combined CO 2 -EOR with fluid substitution to represent maximized storage after completion of CO 2 -EOR.

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DOE OSTI2020

Pulsed Neutron Capture for Monitoring CO 2 Storage with Enhanced Oil Recovery in Northern Michigan

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. Pulsed neutron capture (PNC) logging has been used as part of the MRCSP monitoring of CO 2 injection and storage during assessment of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in several Northern Niagara Pinnacle Reef Trend (NNPRT) reefs in Michigan. This technique and data processing cost less than traditional fluid sampling and presents a low risk to well operations by utilizing through-tubing logging capabilities. Additionally, monitoring CO 2 migration and break-through can be conducted from a single monitoring well in the reservoir. A total of four reefs were selected for these studies to monitor CO 2 migration and to test the viability and effectiveness of the PNC technology for saturation monitoring in a low porosity and highly diverse lithology environment. This study provides assessment of the technology and recommendations for utilization of saturation analysis.

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DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Transient Pressure and Rate Data in a Complex of Enhanced Oil Recovery Fields in Northern Michigan

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. A key activity of the MRCSP monitoring program was to continuously monitor the CO 2 injection and bottom-hole reservoir pressure in the injection wells and selected monitoring wells in the study reefs from 2013 through 2019. During the monitoring period, which varied from reef to reef, the reefs were undergoing one or more phases of development, such as CO 2 injection without hydrocarbon production, CO 2 injection with production Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), production without CO 2 injection, and idle (no injection or production) in pressure depleted condition. A multi-year record of reservoir pressure and injection rate data are available for one or more wells for each reef for analysis. This report discusses the methodology and results of various types of analyses performed with this data, with the primary objective of characterizing the in-situ permeability of the formation of interest.

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DOE OSTI2020

Mass Balance Accounting for CO 2 Storage with Enhanced Oil Recovery in Northern Michigan

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DOE OSTI2020

Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) Plan - Meeting EPA Guidelines for GHGRP and Subpart RR

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. This report summarizes the steps for successfully submitting a Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) plan to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This work used the lessons learned from various MRCSP tasks to demonstrate the geologic understanding of the reefs in Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend (NNPRT), successful monitoring and accounting methodologies, understanding of potential risks and leakage pathways, and mass balance of CO2 baseline and net storage. The plan encompasses ten reefs and provides a reporting plan for future reef development.

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DOE OSTI2020

Carbon-Negative Biofuel Production

Achievement of the 1.5 °C limit for global temperature increase relies on the large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. In this article, we explore two CDR technologies: soil carbon sequestration (SCS), and carbon capture and storage (CCS) integrated with cellulosic biofuel production. These CDR technologies are applied as part of decentralized biorefinery systems processing corn stover and unfertilized switchgrass grown in riparian zones in the Midwestern United States. Cover crops grown on corn-producing lands are chosen from the SCS approach, and biogenic CO 2 in biorefineries is captured, transported by pipeline, and injected into saline aquifers. The decentralized biorefinery system using SCS, CCS, or both can produce carbon-negative cellulosic biofuels (≤-22.2 gCO 2 MJ –1 ). Meanwhile, biofuel selling prices increase by 15–45% due to CDR costs. Economic incentives (e.g., cover crop incentives and/or a CO 2 tax credit) can mitigate price increases caused by CDR technologies. Lastly, a combination of different CDR technologies in decentralized biorefinery systems is the most efficient method for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, and its total GHG mitigation potential in the Midwest is 0.16 GtCO 2 year –1 .

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Soil organic carbon accumulation rates on Mediterranean abandoned agricultural lands

Secondary succession on abandoned agricultural lands can produce climate change mitigation co-benefits, such as soil carbon sequestration. However, the accumulation of soil organic carbon (SOC) in Mediterranean regions has been difficult to predict and is subject to multiple environmental and land management factors. Gains, losses, and no significant changes have all been reported. Here we compile chronosequence data (n = 113) from published studies and new field sites to assess the response of SOC to agricultural land abandonment in peninsular Spain. In this work we found an overall SOC accumulation rate of +2.3% yr -1 post-abandonment. SOC dynamics are highly variable and context-dependent. Minimal change occurs on abandoned cereal croplands compared to abandoned woody croplands (+4% yr -1 ). Accumulation is most prevalent within a Goldilocks climatic window of ~13–17 °C and ~450–900 mm precipitation, promoting >100% gains after three decades. Our secondary forest field sites accrued 40.8 Mg C ha -1 (+172%) following abandonment and displayed greater SOC and N depth heterogeneity than natural forests demonstrating the long-lasting impact of agriculture. Although changes in regional climate and crop types abandoned will impact future carbon sequestration, abandonment remains a low-cost, long-term natural climate solution best incorporated in tandem with other multipurpose sustainable land management strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Synthetic pathway for biological carbon dioxide sequestration

This invention relates to methods for increasing carbon fixation and/or increasing biomass production in a plant, comprising: introducing into a plant, plant part, and/or plant cell heterologous polynucleotides encoding (1) a succinyl CoA synthetase, (2) a 2-oxoglutarate:ferredoxin oxidoreductase, (3) a 2-oxoglutarate carboxylase, (4) an oxalosuccinate reductase, or (5) an isocitrate lyase, or (6) a succinyl CoA synthetase and a 2-oxoglutarate:ferredoxin oxidoreductase, (7) a 2-oxoglutarate carboxylase and an oxalosuccinate reductase polypeptide, and/or (8) a 2-oxoglutarate carboxylase polypeptide, an oxalosuccinate reductase polypeptide and an isocitrate lyase polypeptide to produce a stably transformed plant, plant part, and/or plant cell, wherein said heterologous polynucleotides are from a bacterial and/or an archaeal species. Additionally, transformed plants, plant parts, and/or plant cells are provided as well as products produced from the transformed plants, plant parts, and/or plant cells.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mission Analysis for Marine Renewable Energy to Provide Power for Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal

The mission of this project was to provide a preliminary feasibility assessment of powering different marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR), marine carbon capture, and marine carbon sequestration strategies with marine energy. In this report, carbon capture refers to methods that can separate or capture carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the air or ocean; carbon sequestration refers to methods that store CO 2 obtained by capture methods out of the atmosphere for long periods of time; and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) refers to methods that do both. The project found that mCDR powered by marine energy and offshore wind energy available in the United States could meet global CDR scales needed by 2040 and 2050 to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C by 2100. Note that this preliminary estimate assumes that it is possible to harvest all the marine and offshore wind resources available in the United States with existing technology options, and it does not account for the power needed for monitoring these methods, as these power needs are not yet well defined and require further research. Additionally, these CDR scales will still require emissions reductions.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate-Driven Limits to Future Carbon Storage in California's Wildland Ecosystems

Enhanced ecosystem carbon storage is a key component of many climate mitigation pathways. The State of California has set an ambitious goal of carbon neutrality by 2045, relying in part on enhanced carbon sequestration in natural and working lands. We used statistical modeling, including random forest and climate analog approaches, to explore the climate-driven challenges and uncertainties associated with the goal of long-term carbon sequestration in forests and shrublands. We found that seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation are strong controllers of the spatial distribution of aboveground live carbon. RCP8.5 projections of temperature and precipitation are estimated to drive decreases of 16.1% ± 7.5% in aboveground live carbon by the end of the century, with coastal areas of central and northern California and low/mid-elevation mountain areas being most vulnerable. With RCP4.5 projections, declines are less severe, with 8.8% ± 5.3% carbon loss. In either scenario, increases in temperature systematically cause biomass declines, and the spread of projected precipitation across 32 CMIP5 models contributes to substantial uncertainty in the magnitude of that decline. Projected changes in the environmental niche for the 20 most biomass-dominant tree species revealed widespread replacement of conifers by oak species in low elevation regions of central and northern California, with a corresponding decline in carbon storage depending on expected migration rates. The spatial patterns of vulnerability we identify may allow policymakers to assess where carbon sequestration in aboveground biomass is an appropriate part of a climate mitigation portfolio, and where future climate-driven carbon losses may be a liability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Well–based monitoring of CO 2 geological sequestration operations in saline aquifers: Critical insights into key questions

Geological carbon sequestration in saline aquifers is one of the most promising strategies to help mitigate emissions of CO 2 to the atmosphere. Significant challenges in ensuring the security of the sequestration process rest in the evolution and expansion of the CO 2 plume in the subsurface. The ability to track the movement of the injected CO 2 poses another challenge. Critical questions related to the integrity of the sequestration operations in saline aquifers relate to plume characteristics that can we monitor using well-based variables. We addressed this and related questions using an integrated modeling framework through a numerical investigation of carbon sequestration in saline aquifers during long-term and post-injection periods. This modeling paradigm incorporates the effect of structural, geological, and petrophysical characteristics. That way, we can account for critical physicochemical processes, rock-fluid interactions, and lithology dependencies. The well fluid variables investigated include fluid composition, pH, fluid density, and ion activity. We learned that fluid property analytics and diagnostics can be powerful tools to estimate the movement of CO 2 and its storage in different trapping mechanisms. These analytics can help optimize operational aspects and simplify reservoir-scale models while still reflecting the complex nature of the CO 2 interactions underground and offering insights into plume evolution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Geospatial assessment of the economic opportunity for reforestation in Maryland, USA

Afforestation and reforestation have the potential to provide effective climate mitigation through forest carbon sequestration. Strategic reforestation activities, which account for both carbon sequestration potential (CSP) and economic opportunity, can provide attractive options for policymakers who must manage competing social and environmental goals. In particular, forest carbon pricing can incentivize reforestation on private land, but this may require landholders to forego other profits. Here, we utilize an ambitious geospatial approach to quantify economic opportunities for reforestation in the state of Maryland (USA) based on high-resolution remoting sensing, ecosystem modeling, and economic analysis. Our results identify spatially-explicit areas of economic opportunity where the potential revenue from forest carbon outcompetes the expected profit of existing cropland at the hectare scale. Specifically, we find that under a baseline economic scenario of 20 dollars per ton of carbon (5% rental rate) and decadal average crop profitability, a transition to forest on agricultural land would be more profitable than 23.2% of cropland in Maryland under a 20-year land-use commitment. Accounting for variations in carbon and crop pricing, 5.5% to 55.4% of cropland would be immediately outcompeted by expected forest carbon revenue, with the potential for an additional 0.5% to 10.6% of outcompeted cropland within 20 years. Under the baseline economic scenario, an annual allocation of $5.8 million towards a carbon rental program could protect 6.93 Tg C (2.2% of the state’s total CSP) on reforested croplands. This moderate yearly cost is equal to 9.7% of Maryland’s average annual auction proceeds from participation in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (between 2014-2018), and 19.3% of the average annual subsidy payments for corn, soy, and wheat allocated over the same period. This methodological approach may be useful for state governments, not-for-profit organizations, or regional climate initiatives interested in identifying strategic areas for reforestation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗