Simulated signatures of ignition
Ignition on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) provides a novel opportunity to evaluate past data to identify signatures of capsule failure mechanisms. We have used new simulations of high-yield implosions as well as some from past studies in order to identify unique signatures of different ignition failure mechanisms: jetting due to the presence of voids or defects, jetting due to the capsule fill tube, interfacial mixing due to instabilities or due to plasma transport, radiative cooling due to the presence of contaminant in the hot spot, long-wavelength drive asymmetry, and preheat. Many of these failure mechanisms exhibit unique trajectories that can be distinguished through variations in experimental observables such as neutron yield, down-scattered ratio (DSR), and burn width. Our simulations include capsules using both plastic and high-density carbon ablators and span all high-yield designs considered since the beginning of the National Ignition Campaign in 2011. We observe that the variability in trajectories through the space of neutron yield, DSR, and burn width varies little across capsule design yet are unique to the failure mechanism. The experimental trajectories are most consistent with simulated preheat and jetting due to voids and defects, which are the only failure mechanisms that are indistinguishable in our analysis. This suggests that improvements to capsule compression due to improved capsule quality or reduced preheat have played a primary role in enabling high yields on NIF. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that further improvements have the potential to increase yields further.