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At least 145 records · Page 8

Alaskan carbon-climate feedbacks will be weaker than inferred from short-term manipulations: Alaskan Benchmark Data and Model runs

This submission aimed to assess differences in short-term step warming manipulations and long-term chronic response to climate change in Alaskan ecosystems. Briefly, climate warming is occurring fastest at high latitudes. Based on short-term field experiments, this warming is projected to stimulate soil organic matter decomposition, and promote a positive feedback to climate change. We show here that the tightly coupled, nonlinear nature of high-latitude ecosystems implies that short-term (< 10 year) warming experiments produce emergent ecosystem carbon stock temperature sensitivities inconsistent with emergent multi-decadal responses. We first demonstrate that a well-tested mechanistic ecosystem model accurately represents observed carbon cycle and active layer depth responses to short-term summer warming in four diverse Alaskan sites. We then show that short-term warming manipulations do not capture the non-linear, long-term dynamics of vegetation, and thereby soil organic matter, that occur in response to thermal, hydrological, and nutrient transformations belowground. Our results demonstrate significant spatial heterogeneity in multi-decadal Arctic carbon cycle trajectories and argue for more mechanistic models to improve predictive capabilities.The model used in the current study is available publicly (https://github.com/jinyun1tang/ECOSYS), and the current submission contains the python/ matlab codes for analyzing output from the model (includng a readme file to explain the codes). The benchmark data, also enclosed, was collected from a range of published and publicly available sources (extracted using GRABIT: https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/7173-grabit). These sources describe warming induced changes in tundra/ boreal ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatially explicit terrestrial carbon densities for calibrating the carbon cycle in human-Earth system Models

Soil and vegetation carbon stocks play a critical role in human-Earth system models. These stocks (denominated as densities in MgC/ha) affect variables such as land use change emissions and also influence land use change pathways under climate forcing scenarios where terrestrial carbon is assigned a carbon price. Here we present reharmonized soil and vegetation carbon densities both at the 5-arcmin resolution grid cell level and also aggregated to 235 water sheds for 4 land use types (Cropland, Grazed land, Urban land and unmanaged vegetation) and 15 unmanaged land cover types. Moreover, we use the distribution of carbon within and across pixels to define statistical "states" of carbon, once again differentiated by land type. These statistical states are used to define a range of possible carbon values that can be used for defining initial conditions of soil and vegetation carbon in human-Earth system models. We implement these data in a state-of-the-art multi sector dynamics model, namely the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), and show that these new data improve several land use responses, especially when terrestrial carbon is assigned a carbon price.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coastal Wetland Carbon Processes in a Warmer Climate (Final Report)

Coastal wetlands are global hotspots of carbon storage. Marshes, mangroves, and seagrass meadows account for about half of the total marine soil carbon budget and bury carbon at rates roughly equivalent to terrestrial forests despite occupying just 2.5% of Earth’s land area. Coastal wetlands have recently been recognized as important for storing carbon, but the future sink strength and carbon stock stability of these systems is uncertain because global change drivers such as temperature and elevated CO 2 disturb the complex ecology that drives high rates of soil carbon sequestration. The dynamics of coastal wetland carbon pools are not presently represented in earth system models. Our goals are to understand the influence of warming and elevated CO 2 on C cycling and to forecast the stability of tidal wetland soil carbon pools at the terrestrial-aquatic interface. We designed and implemented a novel field manipulation of elevated CO 2 and temperature and operated it from 2016 to 2020. We learned that plant communities and microbial communities respond differently to rising temperature, and that the net effects of these responses means that a modest amount of warming will increase tidal marsh carbon sequestration, while warming above that level will diminish the potential for additional carbon sequestration. In mathematical terms the system showed non-linear responses which are important for building forecast models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Land management and climate change determine second‐generation bioenergy potential of the US Northern Great Plains

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has been proposed as a potential climate mitigation strategy raising concerns over trade‐offs with existing ecosystem services. We evaluate the feasibility of BECCS in the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB), a landscape with diverse land use, ownership, and bioenergy potential. We develop land‐use change scenarios and a switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) crop functional type to use in a land‐surface model to simulate second‐generation bioenergy production. By the end of this century, average annual switchgrass production over the UMRB ranges from 60 to 210 Tg dry mass/year and is dependent on the Representative Concentration Pathway for greenhouse gas emissions and on land‐use change assumptions. Under our simple phase‐in assumptions this results in a cumulative total production of 2,000–6,000 Tg C over the study period with the upper estimates only possible in the absence of climate change. Switchgrass yields decreased as average CO2 concentrations and temperatures increased, suggesting the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 was small because of its C4 photosynthetic pathway. By the end of the 21st century, the potential energy stored annually in harvested switchgrass averaged between 1 and 4 EJ/year assuming perfect conversion efficiency, or an annual electrical generation capacity of 7,000–28,000 MW assuming current bioenergy efficiency rates. Trade‐offs between bioenergy and ecosystem services were identified, including cumulative direct losses of 1,000–2,600 Tg C stored in natural ecosystems from land‐use change by 2090. Total cumulative losses of ecosystem carbon stocks were higher than the potential ~300 Tg C in fossil fuel emissions from the single largest power plant in the region over the same time period, and equivalent to potential carbon removal from the atmosphere from using biofuels grown in the same region. Numerous trade‐offs from BECCS expansion in the UMRB must be balanced against the potential benefits of a carbon‐negative energy system.

climate change↗

Mineral Inputs, Paleoecological Change, and Holocene Carbon Accumulation at a Boreal Peatland in the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Canada

The Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) is a vast contiguous peatland extending over >370,000 km2 in Canada's boreal-subarctic, and is the traditional land of the Omushkego Cree. It is currently undergoing climatic warming alongside other anthropogenic stressors, and contains a large below-ground carbon pool. Understanding how climate variability and multiple stressors impact peat accumulation in this region is critical to discerning how northern peatlands will respond to future climate and land-use changes. Pollen- and macrofossil-based paleoecological reconstructions, and analyses of aluminum (Al) and titanium (Ti) fluxes in a Holocene-aged peat core (VM375) taken from a bog in the Attawapiskat watershed were conducted to link ecosystem changes with hydroclimate and long-term carbon storage. Peat initiation is dated to 5780 cal yr B.P., coincident with land emergence driven by glacial isostatic adjustment. From 4500 to 4200 cal yr B.P., apparent rate of carbon accumulation increased, and was linked to more rapid rates of peat accretion and increases in minerotrophic indicators in the pollen record. This increase in peat accretion and shift in vegetation composition co-occur with higher rates of mineral influx as shown by Ti and Al concentrations, which may have supplied nutrients. A fen to bog transition takes place ~3300 cal yr B.P., with increases in Sphagnum spores and macrofossils, and a decline in the apparent rate of carbon accumulation relative to the earlier half of the record, where paleoecological proxies indicate treed wetland and fen stages. Since peat inception, the total carbon stock of the 260-cm peat column is 110 kg C m−2. This multi-proxy record shows an association between changing peat types and variability in apparent rates of carbon accumulation, and supports the hypothesis that mineral nutrients either supplied by surface hydrology or by eolian deposition played a role in Holocene peat carbon accumulation in eastern North American boreal peatlands.

Dust↗

Modeling sediment diagenesis processes on riverbed to better quantify aquatic carbon fluxes and stocks in a small watershed of the Mid-Atlantic region

Background: Despite the widely recognized importance of aquatic processes for bridging gaps in the global carbon cycle, there is still a lack of understanding of the role of riverbed processes for carbon flows and stocks in aquatic environments. Here, we added a sediment diagenesis and sediment carbon (C) resuspension module into the SWAT-C model and tested it for simulating both particulate organic C (POC) and dissolved organic C (DOC) fluxes using 4 years of monthly observations (2014–2017) in the Tuckahoe watershed (TW) in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region. Results: Sensitivity analyses show that parameters that regulate POC deposition in river networks are more sensitive than those that determine C resuspension from sediments. Further analyses indicate that allochthonous contributions to POC and DOC are about 36.6 and 46 kgC ha –1 year –1 , respectively, while autochthonous contributions are less than 0.72 kgC ha –1 year –1 for both POC and DOC (less than 2% of allochthonous sources). The net deposition of POC on the riverbed (i.e., 11.4 kgC ha –1 year –1 ) retained ca. 31% of terrestrial inputs of POC. In addition, average annual buried C was 0.34 kgC ha –1 year –1 , accounting for only 1% of terrestrial POC inputs or 3% of net POC deposition. The results indicate that about 79% of deposited organic C was converted to inorganic C (CH 4 and CO 2 ) in the sediment and eventually released into the overlying water column. Conclusion: This study serves as an exploratory study on estimation of C fluxes from terrestrial to aquatic environments at the watershed scale. We demonstrated capabilities of the SWAT-C model to simulate C cycling from uplands to riverine ecosystems and estimated C sinks and sources in aquatic environments. Overall, the results highlight the importance of including carbon cycle dynamics within the riverbed in order to accurately estimate aquatic carbon fluxes and stocks. The new capabilities of SWAT-C are expected to serve as a useful tool to account for those processes in watershed C balance assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate-driven tradeoffs between landscape connectivity and the maintenance of the coastal carbon sink

Abstract Ecosystem connectivity tends to increase the resilience and function of ecosystems responding to stressors. Coastal ecosystems sequester disproportionately large amounts of carbon, but rapid exchange of water, nutrients, and sediment makes them vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. Individual components of the coastal landscape (i.e., marsh, forest, bay) have contrasting responses to sea level rise, making it difficult to forecast the response of the integrated coastal carbon sink. Here we couple a spatially-explicit geomorphic model with a point-based carbon accumulation model, and show that landscape connectivity, in-situ carbon accumulation rates, and the size of the landscape-scale coastal carbon stock all peak at intermediate sea level rise rates despite divergent responses of individual components. Progressive loss of forest biomass under increasing sea level rise leads to a shift from a system dominated by forest biomass carbon towards one dominated by marsh soil carbon that is maintained by substantial recycling of organic carbon between marshes and bays. These results suggest that climate change strengthens connectivity between adjacent coastal ecosystems, but with tradeoffs that include a shift towards more labile carbon, smaller marsh and forest extents, and the accumulation of carbon in portions of the landscape more vulnerable to sea level rise and erosion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS): Final Report of the ASCENDS Ad Hoc Science Definition Team

Improved remote sensing observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are critically needed to quantify, monitor, and understand the Earth's carbon cycle and its evolution in a changing climate. The processes governing ocean and terrestrial carbon uptake remain poorly understood,especially in dynamic regions with large carbon stocks and strong vulnerability to climate change,for example, the tropical land biosphere, the northern hemisphere high latitudes, and the Southern Ocean. Because the passive spectrometers used by GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite) and OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2) require sunlit and cloud-free conditions,current observations over these regions remain infrequent and are subject to biases. These short comings limit our ability to understand and predict the processes controlling the carbon cycle on regional to global scales.In contrast, active CO2 remote-sensing techniques allow accurate measurements to be taken day and night, over ocean and land surfaces, in the presence of thin or scattered clouds, and at all times of year. Because of these benefits, the National Research Council recommended the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights,Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission in the 2007 report Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond. The ability of ASCENDS to collect low-bias observations in these key regions is expected to address important gaps in our knowledge of the contemporary carbon cycle.The ASCENDS ad hoc Science Definition Team (SDT), comprised of carbon cycle modeling and active remote sensing instrument teams throughout the United States (US), worked to develop the mission's requirements and advance its readiness from 2008 through 2018. Numerous scientific investigations were carried out to identify the benefit and feasibility of active CO2 remote sensing measurements for improving our understanding of CO2 sources and sinks. This report summarizes their findings and recommendations based on mission modeling studies, analysis of ancillary meteorological data products, development and demonstration of candidate technologies, anddesign studies of the ASCENDS mission concept.

Kawa, S. Randolph↗

Challenges and opportunities for enhancing food security and greenhouse gas mitigation in smallholder farming in sub-Saharan Africa. A review

Smallholder farmers struggle to achieve food security in many countries of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It is urgently required to find appropriate practices for enhancing crop production while avoiding large increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in SSA. This review aims to identify common smallholder farming practices for enhancing crop production, to assess how these affect GHG emissions and to identify strategies that not only enhance crop production but also mitigate GHG emissions in SSA. To increase crop production and ensure food security, smallholder farmers usually expand agricultural land, develop water harvesting and irrigation techniques and increase cropping intensity and fertilizer use. These practices may result in changing carbon stocks and GHG emissions, potentially creating trade-offs between food security and GHG mitigation. Agricultural land expansion at the expense of forests is the most dominant source of GHG emissions in SSA. While water harvesting and irrigation can increase soil organic carbon, they can trigger GHG emissions. Increasing cropping intensity can enhance the decomposition of soil organic matter, thus releasing carbon dioxide. Increasing nitrogen fertilizer use can enhance soil organic carbon, but also leads to increasing nitrous oxide emissions. An integrated land, water and nutrient management strategy is necessary to enhance crop production and mitigate GHG emissions. Among the most relevant strategies found, agroforestry practices in degraded and marginal lands could replace expanding agricultural croplands. In addition, water management, via adequate rainwater harvesting and irrigation techniques, together with appropriate nutrient management should be considered. Therefore, a land-water-nutrient nexus (LWNN) approach will enable an integrated and sustainable solution to increasing crop production and mitigating GHG emissions. Various technical, economic and policy barriers hinder implementing the LWNN approach on the ground, but these may be overcome through developing appropriate technologies, disseminating them through farmer to farmer approaches and developing specific policies to address smallholder land tenure issues and motivate long-term investment.

Sub-Sahara Africa↗

Climate-focused Life Cycle Assessments of Biochar Production by an ARTi Pyrolysis Reactor and an Air Burners CharBoss® Air Curtain Incinerator

This report presents a limited, dynamic, consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare the climate impacts of two biochar production methods using wood as a feedstock. The two methods are a pyrolysis reactor supplied by ARTi (Des Moines, IA, https://www.arti.com/) and a T26 CharBoss® air curtain incinerator supplied by Air Burners, Inc. (Palm City, FL, https://airburners.com/). The underlying LCA methodology is described in a chapter by Singh et al. (2024) and implemented in the form of a workbook freely available as online Supplementary Material for the chapter. For the convenience of the reader, a pre-print version of the relevant portions of Singh et al. (2024) is attached as Appendix A to this report. Specific assumptions and calculations to obtain the input parameters used in this LCA for each production method are described in the Methodology section below. This implementation of the LCA considers emissions associated with biomass loading, comminution and conversion, biochar decay in soil, and the production and use of bioenergy generated during the conversion process. The LCA is “limited” in that upstream emissions associated with biomass production, harvest, transportation, and land-use change, as well as embodied emissions in equipment and facilities are not considered. Similarly, downstream emissions from biochar transport and incorporation into soil (i.e., tillage), and the impact of biochar soil amendments on soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (other than CO 2 from biochar decay in soil), soil organic carbon stocks, crop response, and surface albedo are not considered. As the intent is to compare different biochar production methods in a simple unbiased manner, the primary alternative biomass pathway for the LCA is immaculate combustion, which is the hypothetical instantaneous and complete conversion of carbon in the biomass to CO 2 at time zero without generation of any other greenhouse gases or aerosols (GHGAs) or any useful bioenergy. Use of this pathway provides relative values for the production methods and, when the embodied emissions are similar and the same feedstock is used, these relative values are reasonable approximations for those attained with a full LCA.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Watershed-scale liming reveals the short- and long- term effects of pH on the forest soil microbiome and carbon cycling

Soil microbial community composition routinely correlates with pH, reflecting both direct pH effects on microbial physiology and long-term biogeochemical feedbacks. For this work, we used two watershed-scale liming experiments to identify short- (2 years) and long-term (25 years) changes in the structure and function of bacterial and fungal communities in organic horizons (O e and O a ) of acid forest soils. Liming increased soil pH, extractable calcium, and soil carbon stocks, reduced biomass-specific respiration, and caused major changes in the soil microbiome in the short and long term. More taxa responded to liming in the short term (70%) than in the long term (30%), with most showing consistent directional responses at both sites. The ratio of change in relative abundance between limed and reference sites was twofold higher at the long than the short-term site, indicating that the effects of liming grew over time. Liming impacts were most pronounced in fungi, as steep declines of dominant ectomycorrhizal fungi ( Cenococcum and Russula ) occurred at both sites. Liming favoured neutrophilic bacteria over acidophilic populations according to estimated environmental pH optima. Collectively, these results demonstrate that a liming-induced change of one pH unit has an immediate and persistent effect on the structure and function of microbial communities in acid forest soils. The corresponding suppression of respiration indicates that anthropogenic alterations of soil pH, as driven by acid deposition or liming, can affect forest floor C stocks due to pH-driven shifts in community structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comprehensive Comparison of Airborne and Spaceborne SAR and LiDAR Estimates of Forest Structure in the Tallest Mangrove Forest on Earth

A recent suite of new global-scale satellite sensors and regional-scale airborne campaigns are providing a wealth of remote sensing data capable of dramatically advancing our current understanding of the spatial distribution of forest structure and carbon stocks. However, a baseline for forest stature and biomass estimates has yet to be established for the wide array of available remote sensing products. At present, it remains unclear how the estimates from these sensors compare to one another in terrestrial forests, with a clear dearth of studies in high carbon density mangrove ecosystems. In the tallest mangrove forest on Earth (Pongara National Park, Gabon), we leverage the data collected during the AfriSAR campaign to evaluate 17 state-of-the-art sensor data products across the full range of height and biomass known to exist globally in mangrove forest ecosystems, providing a much-needed baseline for sensor performance. Our major findings are: (Houghton, Hall, Goetz) height estimates are not consistent across products, with opposing trends in relative and absolute errors, highlighting the need for an adaptive approach to constraining height estimates (Panet al., 2011); radar height estimates had the lowest calibration error and bias, with further improvements using LiDAR fusion (Bonan, 2008); biomass variability and uncertainty strongly depends on forest stature, with variation across products increasing with canopy height, while relative biomass variation was highest in low-stature stands (Le Quéréet al., 2017); a remote sensing product's sensitivity to variations in canopy structure is more important than the absolute accuracy of height estimates (Mitchardet al., 2014); locally-calibrated area-wide totals are more representative than generalized global biomass models for high-precision biomass estimates. The findings presented here provide critical baseline expectations for height and biomass predictions across the full range of mangrove forest stature, which can be directly applied to current (TanDEM-X, GEDI, ICESat-2) and future (NISAR, BIOMASS) global-scale forest monitoring missions.

Atticus E.L. Stovall↗

Whole-soil warming decreases abundance and modifies the community structure of microorganisms in the subsoil but not in surface soil

Abstract. The microbial community composition in subsoils remains understudied, and it is largely unknown whether subsoil microorganisms show a similar response to global warming as microorganisms at the soil surface do. Since microorganisms are the key drivers of soil organic carbon decomposition, this knowledge gap causes uncertainty in the predictions of future carbon cycling in the subsoil carbon pool (> 50 % of the soil organic carbon stocks are below 30 cm soil depth). In the Blodgett Forest field warming experiment (California, USA) we investigated how +4 ∘C warming in the whole-soil profile to 100 cm soil depth for 4.5 years has affected the abundance and community structure of microorganisms. We used proxies for bulk microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and functional microbial groups based on lipid biomarkers, such as phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs). With depth, the microbial biomass decreased and the community composition changed. Our results show that the concentration of PLFAs decreased with warming in the subsoil (below 30 cm) by 28 % but was not affected in the topsoil. Phospholipid fatty acid concentrations changed in concert with soil organic carbon. The microbial community response to warming was depth dependent. The relative abundance of Actinobacteria increased in warmed subsoil, and Gram+ bacteria in subsoils adapted their cell membrane structure to warming-induced stress, as indicated by the ratio of anteiso to iso branched PLFAs. Our results show for the first time that subsoil microorganisms can be more affected by warming compared to topsoil microorganisms. These microbial responses could be explained by the observed decrease in subsoil organic carbon concentrations in the warmed plots. A decrease in microbial abundance in warmed subsoils might reduce the magnitude of the respiration response over time. The shift in the subsoil microbial community towards more Actinobacteria might disproportionately enhance the degradation of previously stable subsoil carbon, as this group is able to metabolize complex carbon sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Minerals limit the deep soil respiration response to warming in a tropical Andisol

Tropical regions hold one third of the world’s soil organic carbon, but few experiments have warmed tropical soils in situ. The vulnerability of these soils to climate change-induced losses is uncertain with many hypothesizing these soils would be less sensitive to climate change because already-high temperatures in tropical systems might limit microbial sensitivity or due to increased mineral protection of organic carbon in highly weathered tropical soils. Here we present the results of a deep soil (0–100 cm) warming experiment in a tropical Andisol. Andisols can store large, persistent pools of soil carbon that are protected from decomposition by poorly and non-crystalline minerals (PNCM). In 20 cm depth intervals, we measured key soil properties including carbon, nitrogen, pH, PNCM, bacterial and fungal richness along with temperature, moisture, and CO 2 production. Over a year of soil warming, CO 2 production significantly increased by 50–300% per degree of warming, but only in the top 40 cm of the soil profile in contrast to the results of other deep soil warming experiments. Multimodal analysis supported our hypothesis that high concentrations of PNCM was the primary driver of the lack of CO 2 response, followed by high relative soil moisture and low bacterial richness, which may be a proxy for organic carbon availability. The lack of elevated CO 2 production in response to warming suggests a limited positive feedback to climate change in Andisols driven by their strong mineral protection of organic matter. Therefore, Andisols should be considered high priority restoration or protection areas when considering the management of soil carbon stocks as part of climate action.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measuring Mangrove Carbon Loss and Gain in Deltas

Demand for mangrove forest resources has led to a steady decline in mangrove area over the past century. Land conversions in the form of agriculture, aquaculture and urbanization account for much of the deforestation of mangrove wetlands. However, natural processes at the transition zone between land and ocean can also rapidly change mangrove spread. In this study, we applied a robust field-based carbon inventory and new structural and temporal remote sensing techniques to quantify the magnitude and change of mangrove carbon stocks in major deltas across Africa and Asia. From 2000–2016, approximately 1.6% (12 270 ha) of the total mangrove area within these deltas disappeared, primarily through erosion and conversion to agriculture. However, the rapid expansion of mangroves in some regions during this same period resulted in new forests that were taller and more carbon-dense than the deforested areas. Because of the rapid vertical growth rates and horizontal expansion, new mangrove forests were able to offset the total carbon losses of 5 332 843 Mg C by 44%. Each hectare of new mangrove forest accounted for ∼84% to ∼160% of the aboveground carbon for each hectare of mangrove forest lost, regardless of the net change in mangrove area. Our study highlights the significance of the natural dynamics of erosion and sedimentation on carbon loss and sequestration potential for mangroves over time. Areas of naturally regenerating mangroves will have a much larger carbon sequestration potential if the rate of mangrove deforestation of taller forests is curbed.

canopy height↗

Mapping National Forest Aboveground Biomass in Mexico By Integrating GEDI and Landsat Times Series Data

Mexico is one of the countries with great potential for the UN's Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) program, a key nature-based solution for the forest sector. To monitor carbon stock changes, there is a growing demand for unbiased Monitoring Reporting Verification (MRV) systems to facilitate effective forest management and climate change mitigation strategies. Remote sensing-based national aboveground biomass density (AGBD) estimation over Mexico is scarce and often limited to one-time static mapping, leading to spatiotemporal inconsistency in inputs. As an effort under NASA's Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) program, we have developed a remote sensing-based approach to create consistent historical AGBD maps of Mexico using multi-stream remote sensing data, including spaceborne lidar GEDI and long-term Landsat time series, as well as topographic information. We employ the continuous change detection and classification (CCDC) algorithm for temporal modeling of Landsat surface reflectance, followed by the inference of forest AGBD using a random forest machine learning algorithm with the temporal information of land surface dynamics extracted by the CCDC as input. GEDI provides unprecedented forest structure and AGBD sampling datasets for model training and validation practices. In this presentation, we share the progress made in developing a spatially explicit mapping of historical AGBD changes associated with land surface changes and post-disturbance landscapes.

Taejin Park↗

The Transcriptional Response of Soil Bacteria to Long-Term Warming and Short-Term Seasonal Fluctuations in a Terrestrial Forest

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important carbon store, and this carbon is vulnerable to microbial degradation with climate warming. After 30 years of experimental warming, carbon stocks in a temperate mixed deciduous forest were observed to be reduced by 30% in the heated plots relative to the controls. In addition, soil respiration was seasonal, as was the warming treatment effect. We therefore hypothesized that long-term warming will have higher expressions of genes related to carbohydrate and lipid metabolism due to increased utilization of recalcitrant carbon pools compared to controls. Because of the seasonal effect of soil respiration and the warming treatment, we further hypothesized that these patterns will be seasonal. We used RNA sequencing to show how the microbial community responds to long-term warming (~30 years) in Harvard Forest, MA. Total RNA was extracted from mineral and organic soil types from two treatment plots (+5°C heated and ambient control), at two time points (June and October) and sequenced using Illumina NextSeq technology. Treatment had a larger effect size on KEGG annotated transcripts than on CAZymes, while soil types more strongly affected CAZymes than KEGG annotated transcripts, though effect sizes overall were small. Although, warming showed a small effect on overall CAZymes expression, several carbohydrate-associated enzymes showed increased expression in heated soils (~68% of all differentially expressed transcripts). Further, exploratory analysis using an unconstrained method showed increased abundances of enzymes related to polysaccharide and lipid metabolism and decomposition in heated soils. Compared to long-term warming, we detected a relatively small effect of seasonal variation on community gene expression. Together, these results indicate that the higher carbohydrate degrading potential of bacteria in heated plots can possibly accelerate a self-reinforcing carbon cycle-temperature feedback in a warming climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗