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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8

Dynamic Electric Field Assisted CO 2 Methanation

Energy-efficient advanced chemical reactions are essential for accelerating the growth of hydrocarbon economy. Sabatier reaction stands out for its potential to effectively transform carbon dioxide into valuable hydrocarbons and is an asset for long-duration Mars missions. This study explores a novel catalytic approach that harnesses electric field-assisted catalysis to substantially enhance the efficiency of the Sabatier reaction. Application of a dynamically perturbed electric field at 1000 Hz resulted in remarkable enhancements, increasing methane formation rates by over 100% at 350 °C and by 74% at 400 °C. Post-reaction catalyst characterization further revealed reduced blockage of active catalytic surface area under the applied electric field, emphasizing improved catalytic longevity and sustained activity. These results underscore the potential of tailored electric field waveforms to dynamically modulate elementary reaction kinetics and surface processes, positioning electric field-assisted catalysis as a transformative strategy for energy-efficient, cost-effective chemical manufacturing and energy conversion technologies.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Heat Integration Optimization and Dynamic Modeling Investigation for Advancing the Coal-Direct Chemical Looping Process

The purpose of the project is to address the optimization and startup operation of a modular coal direct chemical looping (CDCL) combustion system integrated with a steam cycle for power generation to reduce the risks involved in further scale-up of the technology. The modular reactor design of the CDCL process provides flexibility in the fabrication of the reactor and in its operating capacity (i.e. turndown ratio) at the cost of a more complex heat exchange network (HEN) design and integration. To address the technology gaps and advance the efficiency and economic feasibility of the CDCL technology, the project will perform a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the integration of a modular CDCL reactor system and a steam cycle system under both static and transient conditions via HEN process performance simulations and system dynamic modeling, respectively. The scope of work consists of 1) Experimental and computational studies of the CDCL combustor reactor 2) Comprehensive static (i.e. steady-state) system HEN design analysis in CDCL 550 MWe commercial unit for power generation and 3) Dynamic modeling of site specific design of 10MWe CDCL large pilot plant. The project team has successfully developed and validated a kinetic model for the oxidation of oxygen carriers in the combustor using the unreacted shrinking core model (UCSM). The model is capable of capturing the oxidation kinetics of fully or partially reduced oxygen carrier particles. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is developed to simulate the hydrodynamics, heat transfer, and chemical reaction occurring in the CDCL combustor. The model is developed in MFIX and ANSYS Fluent. Key aspects of CDCL combustor operation, including heat transfer, oxygen carrier oxidation, and the transport of oxygen carrier particles, are simulated using this CFD model. The HEN for a commercial scale 550 MWe CDCL power plant is simulated and optimized using ASPEN Plus. Practical design considerations are incorporated based on industrial experiences. The performance and cost for the commercial CDCL plant is updated based on these analyses. A dynamic model for the 10 MWe CDCL pilot plant is developed in ProTRAX simulation software. The model is based on the pilot plant design developed in project DE-FE0027654 “10 MWe CDCL Large Pilot Plang – Pre-FEED Study” and the steam cycle data obtained from Dover Light & Power plant. The transient behaviors during pilot plant load variation are simulated using the dynamic model.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Flame Flashback Investigations in Hydrogen-Enriched Low Swirl Burner using High-Speed Hydroxyl Planar Laser-Induced Fluorescence

Hydrogen/ Hydrogen-rich flame is a potential strategy to reduce carbon emissions for the development of next-generation lean premixed combustors. However, the higher flashback propensity with hydrogen-enrichment owing to faster chemical kinetics is one of the key challenges in existing natural gas turbine combustors. In this study, the fundamentals of stabilized flame dynamics and flashback events in a premixed low swirl burner (LSB) configuration are visualized experimentally using nanosecond (ns)-based high-speed hydroxyl radical planar laser-induced fluorescence (OH-PLIF). The LSB has an optically accessible pre-mixing tube allowing laser diagnostic investigation of flashback events. The inlet conditions are varied systematically with respect to pre-mixer velocities, flame equivalence ratio (ϕ), and hydrogen content and OH-PLIF characterization is performed in stable flame at 20 kHz repetition rate. An increase in flashback propensity is observed with increasing ϕ, hydrogen content, and decreasing V via detailed investigation of flame lift-off length (L) above the burner rim. Flashback ϕ investigations show an expected linearly increasing trend with decreasing hydrogen content and increasing V for each swirler studied and the results agree well with detailed L investigations in stable flame configuration. The propagating flame anchored likely on the back side of the perforated plate within 30-40 ms of the entrance forming the distorted conical flame front.

Parajuli, Pradeep↗

Static and Dynamic Gradient Based Directional Transportation of Neutral Molecules in Swollen Polymer Films

Abstract Materials which selectively transport molecules offer powerful opportunities for concentrating and separating chemical agents. Here, utilizing static and dynamic chemical gradients, transport of molecules within swollen crosslinked polymers is demonstrated. Using an ≈200 μm static hydroxyl to hexyl gradient, the neutral ambipolar nerve agent surrogate diethyl (cyanomethyl)phosphonate (DECP) is directionally transported and concentrated 60‐fold within 4 hours. To accelerate transport kinetics, a dynamic gradient (a “travelling wave”) is utilized. Here, the non‐polar dye pyrene was transported. The dynamic gradient is generated by an ion exchange process triggered by the localized introduction of an aqueous NaCl solution, which converts the gel from hydrophobic to hydrophilic. As the hydrophilic region expands, associated water enters the gel, and pyrene is pushed ahead of the expansion front. The dynamic gradient provides about 10‐fold faster transport kinetics than the static gradient.

Ali, Mohammad A.↗

Stiff neural ordinary differential equations

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) are a promising approach to learn dynamical models from time-series data in science and engineering applications. This work aims at learning neural ODEs for stiff systems, which are usually raised from chemical kinetic modeling in chemical and biological systems. We first show the challenges of learning neural ODEs in the classical stiff ODE systems of Robertson’s problem and propose techniques to mitigate the challenges associated with scale separations in stiff systems. We then present successful demonstrations in stiff systems of Robertson’s problem and an air pollution problem. The demonstrations show that the usage of deep networks with rectified activations, proper scaling of the network outputs as well as loss functions, and stabilized gradient calculations are the key techniques enabling the learning of stiff neural ODEs. The success of learning stiff neural ODEs opens up possibilities of using neural ODEs in applications with widely varying time-scales, such as chemical dynamics in energy conversion, environmental engineering, and life sciences.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Elucidation of the physical factors that control activated transport of penetrants in chemically complex glass-forming liquids

Understanding the activated transport of penetrant or tracer atoms and molecules in condensed phases is a challenging problem in chemistry, materials science, physics, and biophysics. Many angstrom- and nanometer-scale features enter due to the highly variable shape, size, interaction, and conformational flexibility of the penetrant and matrix species, leading to a dramatic diversity of penetrant dynamics. Based on a minimalist model of a spherical penetrant in equilibrated dense matrices of hard spheres, a recent microscopic theory that relates hopping transport to local structure has predicted a novel correlation between penetrant diffusivity and the matrix thermodynamic dimensionless compressibility, S 0 ( T ) (which also quantifies the amplitude of long wavelength density fluctuations), as a consequence of a fundamental statistical mechanical relationship between structure and thermodynamics. Moreover, the penetrant activation barrier is predicted to have a factorized/multiplicative form, scaling as the product of an inverse power law of S 0 ( T ) and a linear/logarithmic function of the penetrant-to-matrix size ratio. This implies an enormous reduction in chemical complexity that is verified based solely on experimental data for diverse classes of chemically complex penetrants dissolved in molecular and polymeric liquids over a wide range of temperatures down to the kinetic glass transition. The predicted corollary that the penetrant diffusion constant decreases exponentially with inverse temperature raised to an exponent determined solely by how S 0 ( T ) decreases with cooling is also verified experimentally. Our findings are relevant to fundamental questions in glassy dynamics, self-averaging of angstrom-scale chemical features, and applications such as membrane separations, barrier coatings, drug delivery, and self-healing.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Investigating the Effects of Chemical Mechanism on Soot Formation Under High-Pressure Fuel Pyrolysis

We performed Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations using a Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence model of high-pressure spray pyrolysis with a detailed chemical kinetic mechanism encompassing pyrolysis of n-dodecane and formation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. We compare the results using the detailed mechanism and those found using several different reduced chemical mechanisms to experiments carried out in an optically accessible, high-pressure, constant-volume combustion chamber. Three different soot models implemented in the CONVERGE CFD software are used: an empirical soot model, a method of moments, and a discrete sectional method. There is a large variation in the prediction of the soot between different combinations of chemical mechanisms and soot model. Furthermore, the amount of soot produced from all models is substantially less than experimental measurements. All of this indicates that there is still substantial work that needs to be done to arrive at simulations that can be relied on to accurately predict soot formation.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Large-Eddy Simulation Study of Flow and Combustion Dynamics in a Full-Scale Hydrogen–Air Rotating Detonation Combustor-Stator Integrated System

In the present work, a first-of-its-kind three-dimensional (3D) large-eddy simulation (LES) study is conducted to numerically investigate the combustion dynamics as well as aero-thermal phenomena in a full-scale nonpremixed hydrogen–air rotating detonation engine (RDE) (with a diverging-shaped lower-end wall), when integrated with nozzle guide vanes (NGV) acting as the turbine stator. The wall-modeled LES framework incorporates hydrogen–air detailed chemical kinetics and adaptive mesh refinement (AMR). A comparative analysis is carried out for two operating conditions with different fuel/air mass flow rates but global equivalence ratio of unity, and considering RDE configurations without and with stator. The LES model is validated against available experimental data for the low mass flux condition with respect to detonation wave speed/height, wave dynamics, and axial static pressure distribution. Numerical results indicate significant deflagrative combustion occurring in the fill region near the inner wall due to formation of recirculation zones in the injection near-field driven by the backward facing step. The leading detonation wave is found to be trailed by an azimuthal reflected-shock combustion (ARSC) wave, consistent with experimental observations, which consumes unburned vitiated reactants that leak through the main detonation wave. The main detonation wave characteristics, such as detonation wave speed/height and combustion efficiency, do not change appreciably with the presence of NGV. A novel combustion diagnostic technique based on chemical explosive mode analysis (CEMA) is employed to quantify the fraction of heat release occurring in the detonative mode versus deflagrative mode for the simulated conditions. The exit flow is found to be nearly fully subsonic and supersonic for the low and high mass flux conditions, respectively. Further analysis of the exit flow profiles shows that the presence of NGV renders the flow more axial and significantly impacts the exit Mach number and total pressure, while the total temperature shows negligible change. In addition, the low mass flux operating point, despite exhibiting more deflagrative losses within the combustor, yields overall lower pressure drop from plenum to exhaust, which is mainly attributed to lower pressure drop across the injectors. Lastly, the rotating detonation engine-nozzle guide vanes (RDE-NGV) configuration exhibits higher total pressure loss compared to rotating detonation engine (RDE) without stator across both the mass flux conditions. In conclusion, this study extends the state-of-the-art in numerical modeling of pressure gain combustion (PGC) systems by demonstrating high-fidelity 3D reacting LES of full-scale RDE-NGV systems relevant to RDE-turbine integration for stationary power generation.

Combustion↗

Why are Lead Iodide‐Based Perovskite Precursor Inks Yellow?

A challenge faced by metal halide perovskite (MHP) photovoltaics is scaling up solution deposition processes to realize rapid and inexpensive manufacturing. The challenge lies in completely understanding and controlling solution speciation, nucleation, and self-assembly of iodoplumbate complexes during solvent evaporation as the liquid transforms into gels and solids. An accurate description of solution species, at all points in the transformation, is a prerequisite to design robust and reliable processes. Here, in this study, the common assumption that initial monoplumbate solution species typically invoked (e.g., [PbI 6 ] 4− ) are certainly not the origin of optical absorbance at >400 nm wavelengths is disproved, as are many large particles of common “intermediate” iodoplumbate phases with face- or edge-sharing connectivity. Instead, a new perspective is offered, involving (partially) corner-sharing iodo(poly)plumbates (>1 Pb 2+ per complex) that experience highly dynamic chemical environments. It is outlined how the MHP field would benefit by elucidating these phenomena. Future work is required to determine the size and kinetic behavior of polyplumbate species, and contextualize these findings in relation to broader trends in materials chemistry beyond MHPs. Ultimately, a complete explanation for the solution speciation, optical absorbance signatures, and the color of MHP precursor inks remains an open challenge to the community.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Characterization of a new ultra-high pressure shock tube facility for combustion and propulsion studies

A new shock tube facility has been designed, constructed, and characterized at the University of Central Florida. This facility is capable of withstanding pressures of up to 1000 atm, allowing for combustion diagnostics of extreme conditions, such as in rocket combustion chambers or in novel power conversion cycles. For studies with toxic gas impurities, the high initial pressures required the development of a gas delivery system to ensure the longevity of the facility and the safety of the personnel. Data acquisition and experimental propagation were implemented with remote access to ensure safety, paired with a LabVIEW- and Python-based user interface. Thus far, test pressures of 270 atm, blast pressures of 730 atm, and temperatures approaching 10 000 K have been achieved. The extreme limitations of this facility allow for emission spectroscopy to be performed during the oxidation of fuel mixtures, e.g., alkanes diluted in argon and carbon dioxide. Ignition delay times were determined and compared to simulations using chemical kinetic mechanisms. The design, experimental procedures, processes of analysis, and uncertainty determination are outlined, and typical pressure profiles are compared with a new gas dynamics solver and empirical correlations developed across multiple shock tube facilities. Preliminary reactive mixture analyses are included with further investigation of the mixtures outlined.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Spontaneous Reorganization of DNA-Based Polymers in Higher Ordered Structures Fueled by RNA

We demonstrate a strategy that allows for the spontaneous reconfiguration of self-assembled DNA polymers exploiting RNA as chemical fuel. To do this, we have rationally designed orthogonally addressable DNA building blocks that can be transiently deactivated by RNA fuels and subtracted temporarily from participation in the self-assembly process. Through a fine modulation of the rate at which the building blocks are reactivated we can carefully control the final composition of the polymer and convert a disordered polymer in a higher order polymer, which is disfavored from a thermodynamic point of view. We measure the dynamic reconfiguration via fluorescent signals and confocal microscopy, and we derive a kinetic model that captures the experimental results. Our approach suggests a novel route toward the development of biomolecular materials in which engineered chemical reactions support the autonomous spatial reorganization of multiple components.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Mechanistic study of chemical looping reactions between solid carbon fuels and CuO

Copper (Cu) based chemical-looping combustion (CLC) is a promising process that utilizes solid carbon fuel such as coal and biomass. Understanding the reaction kinetics in this process can facilitate the industrial design of CLC units. Here, in this work, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were performed to investigate the reaction kinetics of n-butane and two simplified solid carbon fuels (lignite and anthracite) with/without copper oxide (CuO) nanoparticle. In addition, experiments were conducted on the thermal characteristics, flammability, and flame speeds of CuO and solid carbon mixtures. For n-butane, oxidation on the CuO surface is the primary reaction since the activation energy of the surface reaction is much lower than that of oxygen (O 2 ) combustion (9.2 vs. 53.3 kcal/mol). On the other hand, for lignite, there is a smaller difference in the activation energy of O 2 combustion and surface reaction (23.04 vs. 6.34 kcal/mol). We hypothesize that some solid carbon fuels can have different reaction kinetics dependent upon temperature. This is proven by the case of a simplified anthracite coal: an Arrhenius plot shows that this solid carbon fuel has two different reaction kinetic regimes and the critical temperature for the change in kinetics is related to the oxygen uncoupling of the CuO nanoparticle. Like the modeling simulations, a change in activation energy is observed in the experimental results, where desorption of molecular oxygen from CuO becomes important.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Elucidating the Interfacial Barriers in Lanthanide Back-Extraction: From Water to Oil and Back Again

Recovery of critical rare earth elements from complex mixtures has long been realized via solvent extraction, where ions in an aqueous phase are separated into an organic phase using amphiphilic ligands. While a great deal of effort has been placed on understanding this forward reaction, substantial knowledge gaps in the back-extraction process remain. This includes the mechanism of interfacial dissociation and transport back into a highly acidic aqueous phase for further processing. In this work, we connect back-extraction kinetics made in realistic solvent extraction systems to salient interfacial chemistry and structure that represent bottlenecks in the back-extraction of lanthanide ions. We show that the interface between the two liquid phases varies dramatically based on the composition of both phases. Water stretching signals are shown to report on the population of lingering interfacial complexes and are thus used as a reporter of competitive adsorption from excess free ligands in solution for limited interfacial vacancies. We show that excess free ligands, often used to improve forward extractions, set up interfacial blockades inhibiting back-extraction both kinetically and thermodynamically. In conclusion, this insight opens up avenues to tune interfacial properties to facilitate a more dynamic, exchangeable interface to speed up back-extractions while using less energy intensive chemical swings.

Interfaces↗

Controlling Structural, Electronic, and Energy Flow Dynamics of Catalytic Processes through Tailored Nanostructures

MoS 2 (molybdenum disulfide) is a highly-versatile catalyst material for support of numerous reactions from hydrodesulfurization and denitrogenation to the focus of this renewal proposal: hydrogenation of CO/CO 2 towards (higher) alcohols. At the same time, MoS 2 is a non-toxic, environmentally-benign and rather inert material- which under ambient conditions for some time has served as a lubricant and, more recently, as next-generation electronic material. The apparent contrast between inertness and stability in ambient, and catalytic activity under reactive conditions is puzzling and calls for a synergistic theoretical and experimental investigation with the long-term objective of enabling the rational design of MoS 2 -based catalysts for alcohol-formation reactions by providing a microscopic understanding of the environmental factors that determines site activity and selectivity. Our research project seeks answers to the questions (a) what conformation does MoS 2 adopt under reaction conditions (as opposed to that under ultrahigh vacuum and low temperatures)?; (b) what reaction pathways exist on such a material?; (c) how can the local environment of the active sites be manipulated so as to make MoS 2 an efficient catalyst for production of higher alcohol from syngas? In particular, research strategies will explore how the basal plane composed of sulfur atoms can be activated so as to exhibit a reactivity of its own, by addressing three research targets and building on extensive preliminary and enabling work: (1) vacancies and vacancy aggregates on the basal plane; (2) non-local catalyst transformation through alkali doping, hydrogenation and phase transition; (3) fabrication of a metal-nanoparticle-activated MoS 2 system, in which particle anchoring, reactive sites and pathways as well as selectivity are controlled by design, as an example of predictive development of a catalyst material,. All strategies are directed to improve the efficacy of the key reactive sites and selectivity of chemical pathways by design, to replace the inefficient methodology of trial and error in catalyst development. This research project represents a synergistic combination of computational guidance, foundational surface-science-based experiments and validation under reactive conditions that aims at transformative new insights into the working of MoS 2 -based hydrogenation-catalysts, a topic squarely at the center of the interest of DOE BES. Guided and led by Talat Rahman, a computational physicist, this project will apply density functional theory to understand structure, reaction pathways and chemical potentials associated with MoS 2 -based CO/CO 2 hydrogenation, augmented by kinetic Monte Carlo methods for reaction rates and prefactors as well as ab-initio molecular dynamics for evaluation of thermal stability. Complementary experimental input and validation will originate from co-PI Ludwig Bartels, a physical chemist and materials scientist, whose group focuses on local imaging and preparation of MoS 2 materials, from co-PI Peter Dowben, an experimental physicist, whose group is expert in the spectroscopy of occupied and unoccupied electronic states, and from senior collaborator Michael White of Brookhaven National Laboratory, whose group generates high-resolution electronic and activity information on size-selected well-defined metal chalcogenide clusters. This collaborative effort will enable a comprehensive understanding of the correlation of structural integrity and catalytic activity of MoS 2 in forms ranging from extended films to individual particles with known geometries and binding sites. Alcohol formation from syngas is a rapidly emerging application that has great potential through facile, economic, and decentralized biomass gasification. CO 2 activation is one of the most pressing concerns of our time: increasing CO 2 levels in the atmosphere change the climate and expose the globe to environmental transformations with the potential for enormous economic and societal impact. We will investigate CO/CO 2 hydrogenation via an interdisciplinary research collaboration with established synergy – one that, in accordance with the mission of the DOE, involves accredited Hispanic-Serving Institutions and that, through student exchange with international collaborators and National Labs, will directly benefit a broad spectrum of communities and generate human resources in sciences essential to their future.

2D materials↗

Multiscale CFD simulation of biomass fast pyrolysis with a machine learning derived intra-particle model and detailed pyrolysis kinetics

Coupling particle and reactor scale models is as essential as reactor fluid dynamics and particle motion for accurate Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulations of biomass fast pyrolysis reactors due to intraparticle heat transfer and chemical reactions controlling conversion time and product distributions. Direct online coupling of a particle model with a reactor model is computationally expensive, while offline coupling is case-dependent. In this research, solutions from a series of particle pyrolysis simulations were regressed with Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Furthermoer, this machine learning-derived model predicted the same temperature and conversion profiles compared with particle resolved simulation while the isothermal approach overpredicted the temperature by 130 K and underpredicted the conversion time by 30 s. The ANN model was then integrated into CFD simulations of fluidized bed biomass fast pyrolysis with varied feedstocks via coupling PyTorch and MFiX. The averaged error of simulation predicted bio-oil yields with four feedstocks is 6.4%. This multi-scale approach provides an efficient tool for the coupled particle and reactor scale simulations of biomass pyrolysis.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Nonadiabatic Electronic Energy Transfer in Chemical Oxygen-Iodine Laser: Powered by Derivative Coupling or Spin-Orbit Coupling?

Derivative couplings near a conical intersection and spin-orbit couplings between different spin states are known to facilitate nonadiabatic transitions in molecular systems. In this report, we investigate a prototypical electronic energy transfer process, I( 2 P 3/2 )+O 2 (a 1 Δ g )→I( 2 P 1/2 )+ O 2 (X 3 Σ g - ), which is of great importance for the chemical oxygen-iodine laser. To understand the nonadiabatic dynamics, this multistate process is investigated in full dimensionality with quantum wave packets using diabatic potential energy surfaces coupled by both derivative and spin-orbit couplings, all determined from first principles. A near quantitative agreement with structural, energetic, and kinetic measurements is achieved. Detailed analyses suggest that the nonadiabatic dynamics is largely controlled by derivative coupling near conical intersections, which leads to a small effective barrier and hence a slightly positive temperature dependence of the rate coefficient. The new findings should extend our understanding of energy transfer, provide a quantitative basis for numerical simulations of the chemical oxygen-iodine laser, and have important implications in other electronic energy transfer processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Ultrafast dynamics of 2-thiouracil investigated by time-resolved Auger spectroscopy

In this paper, we present time-resolved ultraviolet-pump x-ray probe Auger spectra of 2-thiouracil. An ultraviolet induced shift towards higher kinetic energies is observed in the sulfur 2p Auger decay. The difference Auger spectra of pumped and unpumped molecules exhibit ultrafast dynamics in the shift amplitude, in which three phases can be recognized. In the first 100 fs, a shift towards higher kinetic energies is observed, followed by a 400 fs shift back to lower kinetic energies and a 1 ps shift again to higher kinetic energies. We use a simple Coulomb-model, aided by quantum chemical calculations of potential energy states, to deduce a C-S bond expansion within the first 100 fs. The bond elongation triggers internal conversion from the photoexcited S 2 to the S 1 state. Based on timescales, the subsequent dynamics can be interpreted in terms of S 1 nuclear relaxation and S 1 -triplet internal conversion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Kinetic Monte Carlo Approach for Simulating Cascading Transmission Line Failure

In this work, cascading transmission line failures are studied through a dynamical model of the power system operating under fixed conditions. The power grid is modeled as a stochastic dynamical system where first-principles electromechanical dynamics are excited by small Gaussian disturbances in demand and generation around a specified operating point. In this context, a single line failure is interpreted in a large deviation context as a first escape event across a surface in phase space defined by line security constraints. The resulting system of stochastic differential equations admits a transverse decomposition of the drift, which leads to considerable simplification in evaluating the quasipotential (rate function) and, consequently, computation of exit rates. Tractable expressions for the rate of transmission line failure in a restricted network are derived from large deviation theory arguments and validated against numerical simulations. Extensions to realistic settings are considered, and individual line failure models are aggregated into a Markov model of cascading failure inspired by chemical kinetics. Cascades are generated by traversing a graph composed of weighted edges representing transitions to degraded network topologies. Numerical results indicate that the Markov model can produce cascades with qualitative power-law properties similar to those observed in empirical cascades.

Kinetic Monte Carlo, rare events, Cascading Failur↗