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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AIST Technology Perspectives for ESO Mission Processing and Open-sourced Science

NASA is formulating the Earth System Observatory (ESO), a set of Earth-focused missions to provide key information to guide efforts related to monitoring climate change, mitigating disasters, fighting forest fires, and improving real-time agricultural processes. Within that framework, this presentation will introduce the Advanced Collaborative Frameworks (ACF) concepts that have been developed as part of the Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program, demonstrating the capability for facilitating open-sourced science and with a strong transition/infusion potential.

Jacqueline Le Moigne↗
NASA NTRS2021

Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss

Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land-uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO2 sequestration. We integrated comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and land-use change drivers into a predictive model of mangrove carbon emissions. We project emissions and foregone soil carbon sequestration potential under ‘business as usual’ rates of mangrove loss. Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2391 Tg CO2 eq by the end of the century, or 3392 Tg CO2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the Andaman coast (West Myanmar) and north Brazil due to erosion. Together, these six regions accounted for 90% of the total potential CO2 eq future emissions. Mangrove loss has been slowing, and global emissions could be more than halved if reduced loss rates remain in the future. Notably, the location of global emission hotspots was consistent with every dataset used to calculate deforestation rates or with alternative assumptions about carbon storage and emissions. Our results indicate the regions in need of policy actions to address emissions arising from mangrove loss and the drivers that could be managed to prevent them.

Maria F. Adame↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping National Forest Aboveground Biomass in Mexico by Integrating GEDI, Sentinel‐1 and Sentinel‐2 Data

Accurate mapping of forest aboveground biomass density (AGBD) is required to better understand the role of forests in the global carbon cycle and to support international policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Mexico is one of the countries having great potential for the United Nations Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (or UN-REDD program) and there is a growing demand for unbiased Monitoring Reporting Verification systems at a national level. As an effort under NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) program, we developed a machine learning model using multi-stream remote sensing measurements as well as topographic data to create a high spatial resolution AGBD map (~100 m) over Mexico (circa 2020). The remote sensing data includes Global Ecosystem Dynamic Investigation (GEDI) lidar, Sentinel 1 Synthetic-Aperture Radar (SAR), and Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery (MSI). GEDI onboard the International Space Station provides unprecedented forest structure and AGBD sampling datasets for model training and validation practices. Our analysis indicates that the developed random forest model can capture 63 % of the spatial variation (RMSE = 33.7 Mg/ha) of AGBD of Mexican forests. We find that shortwave infrared bands of Sentinel-2 MSI and topographical variables from elevation data are the most important variables in the developed AGBD model. Our study highlights methodological opportunities in synergistic uses of multiple sensors for large-scale forest AGBD mapping and shows potential for retrospective analysis and operational monitoring of forest AGBD and its dynamics.

Taejin Park↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancing Satellite-Constrained Modeled Air-Sea CO 2 Fluxes With a Focus on the Strength of the Southern Ocean Carbon Sink

Challenge and Motivation: The ocean plays a critical role in mitigating climate change by removing approximately a quarter of annual anthropogenic CO 2 emissions from the atmosphere. Model-based estimates point to the Southern Ocean as a key marine region, responsible for approximately 40 % of the anthropogenic carbon uptake by the global ocean. However, the contemporary strength of the Southern Ocean carbon sink has recently come into question. On the one hand, airborne-based observations of atmospheric CO 2 gradients indicate that the Southern Ocean represents a strong net sink of atmospheric CO 2 , consistent in magnitude with atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO 2 )-based products. On the other hand, estimates of pCO 2 based on in situ pH measurements taken by biogeochemical profiling floats yield strong wintertime outgassing fluxes that greatly reduce the Southern Ocean’s annually integrated CO 2 uptake. This uncertainty in the strength of the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux and its role in the global carbon cycle hinders our ability to constrain global carbon fluxes, one of the major goals of NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS). Opportunity: The NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) produces near-global pCO 2 and air-sea CO 2 flux estimates that are currently included into the NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) models in support of the CMS effort to monitor global carbon fluxes. The NOBM assimilates ocean color data to improve the representation of biogeochemical fluxes and overcome spatial and temporal gaps in the space-based retrievals. Here, we propose to advance the satellite-constrained flux estimates by investigating the uncertainties in the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux produced by the NOBM, and assess the value that remote sensing ocean color data can have in providing improved estimates of carbon fluxes in the ocean. Our proposed work includes the delivery of refined in situ float-based carbon fluxes to serve as a constraint on the model-based estimates. Taking advantage of the model’s integration of satellite ocean color data to represent multiple phytoplankton groups, we propose to deliver maps of biogenic carbon export specific to each modeled phytoplankton type and investigate the role of ecological plankton complexity in regulating marine carbon uptake and export. Goals: (a) Delivery of seasonally-adjusted float-based Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 fluxes: We will produce updated and improved float-based air-sea CO 2 fluxes that will serve as a bias-reduced float-based constraint to evaluate our model-based estimates of the NOBM. (b) Investigation of uncertainties in Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux from the NOBM: Modeled air-sea carbon fluxes will be evaluated against the updated float product as well as ship- and airborne-based data to identify uncertainties and potential model deficiencies. (c) Delivery of model-based carbon export partitioning by phytoplankton functional types (PFTs): We will produce depth-resolved maps of particulate organic export production integrated for all phytoplankton groups and allocated to each individual PFT in the model. The expected significance of this goal is to quantify the role that the functional-oriented diversity in phytoplankton groups represented in the NOBM plays in regulating air-sea CO 2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean.

Lionel A. Arteaga↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping National Forest Aboveground Biomass in Mexico By Integrating GEDI and Landsat Times Series Data

Mexico is one of the countries with great potential for the UN's Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) program, a key nature-based solution for the forest sector. To monitor carbon stock changes, there is a growing demand for unbiased Monitoring Reporting Verification (MRV) systems to facilitate effective forest management and climate change mitigation strategies. Remote sensing-based national aboveground biomass density (AGBD) estimation over Mexico is scarce and often limited to one-time static mapping, leading to spatiotemporal inconsistency in inputs. As an effort under NASA's Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) program, we have developed a remote sensing-based approach to create consistent historical AGBD maps of Mexico using multi-stream remote sensing data, including spaceborne lidar GEDI and long-term Landsat time series, as well as topographic information. We employ the continuous change detection and classification (CCDC) algorithm for temporal modeling of Landsat surface reflectance, followed by the inference of forest AGBD using a random forest machine learning algorithm with the temporal information of land surface dynamics extracted by the CCDC as input. GEDI provides unprecedented forest structure and AGBD sampling datasets for model training and validation practices. In this presentation, we share the progress made in developing a spatially explicit mapping of historical AGBD changes associated with land surface changes and post-disturbance landscapes.

Taejin Park↗
NASA NTRS2024

Applications of Remote Sensing for Land Use Planning Scenarios with Suitability Analysis

In regions undergoing rapid urbanization, such as West Africa, land use planning (LUP) is vital to accommodate growing population and manage natural resources. Suitability analysis modeling is a widely used tool in LUP to determine the extent to which a land area is suitable for a designated purpose, but there is a gap in the integration of remote sensing time series data into land use decisions. The goal of this study was to incorporate remote sensing time series information with suitability analyses to inform LUP decisions in urban areas. In the study area of Kumasi, Ghana, land cover trends and land surface temperature (LST) from 2000 to 2019 were used to understand climate change trends. Suitability analyses determined the fitness of land areas for predetermined uses. These background processes informed a genetic algorithm to project plausible futures for three land use scenarios. One scenario represented current land use planning practices for addressing population growth, another scenario prioritized minimizing climate change impacts while also accommodating population growth, and the final scenario focused on both of these climate and population goals in addition to high density urban development. Each of these scenarios was successful in achieving population accommodation and respective climate change mitigation goals. The results for these scenarios provide insight into plausible land use distributions in 2050 based on different planning approaches. The genetic algorithm was able to effectively develop results for each scenario through the integration of remotely sensed trends and suitability models, providing a novel approach to land use decision-making.

remote sensing time series↗
NASA NTRS2024

Assessment of landscape-scale fluxes of carbon dioxide and methane in subtropical coastal wetlands of South Florida

Coastal wetlands play a significant role in the storage of “blue carbon,” indicating their importance in the carbon biogeochemistry in the coastal zone and in global climate change mitigation strategies. We present airborne eddy covariance observations of CO 2 and CH 2 fluxes collected in southern Florida as part of the NASA BlueFlux mission during April 2022, October 2022, February 2023, and April 2023. The flux data generated from this mission consists of over 100 flight hours and more than 6,000 km of horizontal distance over coastal saline and freshwater wetlands. We find that the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in CO 2 and CH 2 exchange is primarily influenced by season, vegetation type, ecosystem productivity, and soil inundation. The largest CO 2 uptake fluxes of more than 20 μmol m -2 s -1 were observed over mangroves during all deployments and over swamp forests during flights in April. The greatest CH 4 effluxes of more than 250 nmol m -2 s -1 were measured at the end of the wet season in October 2022 over freshwater marshes and swamp shrublands. Although the combined Everglades National Park and Big Cypress National Preserve region was a net sink for carbon, CH 4 emissions reduced the ecosystem carbon uptake capacity (net CO 2 exchange rates) by 11%–91%. Average total net carbon exchange rates during the flight periods were −4 to −0.2 g CO 2 -eq m -2 d -1 . Our results highlight the importance of preserving mangrove forests and point to potential avenues of further research for greenhouse gas mitigation strategies.

atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2024

Practical challenges of model predictive control (MPC) for grid interactive small and medium commercial buildings

To the urgent call for mitigating climate change, substantial initiatives have been undertaken to deploy grid-interactive heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) controls, such as model predictive control (MPC) for buildings. These efforts typically aim to curtail peak energy demand, shift load and enhance overall energy efficiency. With the recent development of low-cost MPC technologies that don’t require extensive instrumentation or manual modeling, small and medium commercial buildings (SMCBs), which rarely utilize advanced HVAC control systems, have become candidates for grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs). However, despite the potential benefits and maturity of the technology itself, several practical challenges remain in real-world implementation. In this paper, we share the practical challenges that we have encountered in implementing and testing three types of MPC solutions (ON/OFF unit, dualfuel, and VRF systems) on multiple SMCB sites. We describe the MPC deployment process and discuss the lessons learned. The site selection, eligibility, and retrofit availability (e.g., utility price structure, thermostat communications, etc.) are the main discussion points at the beginning of the project. Also, the modeling automation and the best practices for interacting with endusers and handling erroneous situations are presented for successful operations.

woo Ham, Sang↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decarbonizing Hydrogen Production: Assessing A Net-Negative Pathway

Hydrogen is gaining prominence as a key factor in the world's transition to a cleaner energy future. The International Energy Agency (IEA)'s Global Hydrogen Review 2023 reports that the number of low-emission hydrogen production projects is increasing rapidly. The potential for growth in new applications such as heavy industry, transportation, and power generation is significant. The IEA urges more decisive action to spur demand for low-emission hydrogen to achieve climate goals. While hydrogen is produced through various industrial methods, each with its own advantages and disadvantages, low-carbon hydrogen is critical for mitigating climate change and is incentivized by the Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit (45V). To this end, we have evaluated a commercial technology that can produce low- or negative-carbon hydrogen via ethanol catalytic oxidative reforming. This study assessed life cycle greenhouse gas emissions (carbon intensity or CI) associated with the hydrogen production technology. A total of 24 scenarios were evaluated, encompassing (a) Gen1 versus Gen2 ethanol inputs, (b) carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) of upstream fermentation CO2, and (c) oxygen sourcing via air separation unit (ASU) versus purchased or on-site production of oxygen as a byproduct of hydrogen electrolysis with a proton exchange membrane (PEM). Key findings include that the base case CI for hydrogen production using Gen2 ethanol from corn stover is lower than Gen1 dry mill corn ethanol. The study also points out that the CI for hydrogen production using PEM-O2 is lower than that using ASU-O2, whether the PEM-O2 is produced on-site or off-site (importing). When sourcing oxygen from on-site PEM-O2, the Gen1 and Gen2 ethanol-derived hydrogen exhibit favorable net-negative CI values for all evaluated scenarios, especially if the upstream ethanol CCS is included. As a reference, the 45V regulatory threshold for generating clean hydrogen tax credits is a CI below 0.45 kg CO2e/kg hydrogen.

BIOMASS FUELS,HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fusion Energy Research at Idaho National Laboratory: Experimentation and Simulation to Support Safety and Rapid Technology Development

Research into fusion energy is growing rapidly, responding to a call for sustainable sources of energy to replace fossil fuels and mitigate climate change. Within the United States, at least, researchers are also responding to the “Bold Decadal Vision” proposed by the White House, seeking to have a commercially relevant fusion pilot plant deployed within a decade. Before this can become a reality, many Fusion Science & Technology (FS&T) gaps remain. For over 45 years, Idaho National Laboratory has been at the forefront of addressing these FS&T gaps in the context of fusion safety and technology via the operation of world-leading experimental facilities within the Safety and Tritium Applied Research (STAR) Facility. Here, INL focuses on the tritium fuel cycle, conceptual system design studies, risk assessment, waste management, and materials safety. Modeling and Simulation (M&S) has also been a component of this portfolio of research, but, early on, focused on individual systems. Since 2019, active development and research on integrated whole device modeling tools based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework has been undertaken. This has culminated in a MOOSE-based version of the Tritium Migration and Analysis Program (TMAP), an INL code historically focused on tritium permeation and trapping within fusion systems. More recently, INL Laboratory Directed Research and Development funds have been used to create the Fusion ENergy Integrated multiphys-X (FENIX) code focused on scrape-off layer plasma physics and the first wall of a magnetically confined fusion device. This talk will focus on an overview of INL activities in the FS&T research area, with a particular focus on recent M&S activities and results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects

This is the conference paper accompanying an oral presentation “Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects” at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24 , 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is critical for mitigating climate change but requires effective subsurface reservoir management to ensure safe containment of injected CO2. Accurate predictions of reservoir pressure and saturation are essential for assessing long-term CCS performance. Traditional numerical simulations, while effective, are computationally intensive, time-consuming, and constrained by data discretization. Previous work has shown the effectiveness of MeshGraphNets (MGN), a graph-based machine learning framework, as an innovative alternative for predicting reservoir behavior. MGN leverages graph neural networks (GNNs) and mesh representations to model complex geological formations, offering superior adaptability across different discretizations and reservoir configurations. Classic MGN implementations utilize an autoregressive technique to predict future behavior based on current predictions, but this technique is hampered by error accumulation over time. To enhance the model accuracy in time-series predictions, this study implemented a multi-step rollout strategy that integrates autoregressive predictions during training to stabilize prediction of saturation over time. Using the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project (IBDP) dataset, comprising 100 simulations of CO2 injection, pressure, and saturation changes, the framework demonstrated its ability to learn spatial dependencies and temporal dynamics. With inputs including permeabilities, porosities, and injection rates, MGN accurately predicted CO2 plume evolution over time, even with limited training data. Moreover, the addition of a multi-step rollout procedure during training improved the ability of MGN to predict stably over time by ~15%. This research positions MGN, enhanced with multi-step rollout capabilities, as a robust and efficient tool for CCS applications. It advances the field by enabling precise, computationally efficient predictions of reservoir behavior, providing a foundation for the broader adoption of machine learning frameworks in CCS and other geoscience domains.

Holcomb, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Adaptive Dynamic Agrivoltaic Production Tool

In the pursuit of sustainable and land-use-efficient solutions to mitigate climate change, the concept of agrivoltaic systems, which integrate renewable solar energy into conventional agriculture, has emerged. By deploying solar arrays above the crop field, these systems are designed to maximize the land use efficiency or, in other words, the value of generated electricity and crop yield per unit area. While power generation has been extensively studied and modeled, research gaps persist in simulating crop performance [1], [2]. Early studies utilized generalized relationships between photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and crop production. However, significant variations in crop performance due to other factors, such as weather and soil, can compromise the reliability of the results [2]. Current studies focus on comprehensive process-based crop models, such as DSSAT [3] and STICS [4]. Nevertheless, the validation status varies greatly across different species, and the validation process requires well-designed experiments to adjust specific processes. For less common shade-tolerant crops with limited validation, such as cabbage, physiological behaviors can be difficult to predict [5]. This study investigates an adaptive dynamic agrivoltaic production tool (ADAPT) with few data requirements and minimal on-site calibration that can be easily applied in real applications.

Long, Qirui↗
DOE OSTI2025

Experimental Studies on Enhanced Ignition for Improved Pre-Chamber Combustion in Gas Engines

Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change have intensified the demand for cleaner and more efficient combustion technologies. Heavyduty engines, which remain essential for transportation and power generation, must operate with significantly lower emissions while maintaining high efficiency and fuel flexibility. Lean combustion and exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) offer promising pathways to reduce emissions and improve thermal efficiency; however, these strategies impose severe challenges for engine operation, especially for low reactivity gaseous fuels like natural gas and ammonia. Pre-chamber combustion has emerged as a viable approach that uses turbulent jets to accelerate main chamber ignition, but its performance can degrade under high dilution or with hard-to-ignite fuels. These limitations motivate the central focus of this dissertation: understanding passive pre-chambers and improving their performance under challenging conditions.

Dhotre, Akash [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN↗
NASA NTRS2010

Combining Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Observations to Enable Data-Driven Decision Making for Devils Lake Flood Mitigation in a Changing Climate

This slide presentation reviews work to combine the hydrological models and remote sensing observations to monitor Devils Lake in North Dakota, to assist in flood damage mitigation. This reports on the use of a distributed rainfall-runoff model, HEC-HMS, to simulate the hydro-dynamics of the lake watershed, and used NASA's remote sensing data, including the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and AIRS surface air temperature, to drive the model.

Zhang, Xiaodong↗
NASA NTRS2012

Global Air Quality and Health Co-benefits of Mitigating Near-term Climate Change Through Methane and Black Carbon Emission Controls

Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM < or = 2.5 microns in aerodynamic diameter; PM2.5), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate. Objectives: We examined the air quality and health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20-40 years. Methods: We simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM2.5‑ and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration-response functions. Results: We estimated that, for PM2.5 and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23-34% and 7-17% and avoid 0.6-4.4 and 0.04-0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM2.5 relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration-response function. Conclusions: In addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by model spatial resolution.

air quality↗
NASA NTRS2015

Implications of Climate Mitigation for Future Agricultural Production

Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate approximately 81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure countries.

Mueller, Christoph↗
NASA NTRS2018

Action Pathways for Transforming Cities

Transformation is required for cities to fulfil their leadership potential on climate change. Five action pathways can guide them: integrate mitigation and adaptation; coordinate risk reduction and climate adaptation; cogenerate risk information; focus on disadvantaged populations; and improve governance and knowledge networks.

Civil engineering↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimization of floodwater redistribution from Lake Nasser could recharge Egypt’s aquifers and mitigate its excessive floods

Extreme precipitation periods, possibly related to climate change, over the Nile River source areas caused flooding in Sudan and excess runoff reaching Lake Nasser in Egypt in 1998–2002 and 2019–2022. Excess water from the 1st event (25.5 × 10 9 m 3 ) was channeled to depressions within the plateau west of the Nile Valley, forming the Tushka Lakes, where it was left to evaporate, a fate that awaits the 53.5 × 10 9 m 3 from the 2nd event while the underlying fossil Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System is being depleted (–0.98 × 10 9 m 3 /yr). We simulated release scenarios of excess Lake Nasser waters (53.5 × 10 9 m 3 ) to proximal lowlands; preference was given to the scenario that recharged the aquifer through infiltration (74.3%) and minimized losses to evaporation (20.1%) and surface runoff (5.6%). Findings serve as an example of adaptations that replace catastrophic consequences of climate change with beneficial and sustainable development opportunities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗