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NASA NTRS2004

Fractal Variation with Changing Line Length: A Potential Problem for Planetary Lava Flow Identification

Fractals are objects that are generally self similar at all scales. Coastlines, mountains, river systems, planetary orbits and some mathematical objects are all examples of fractals. Bruno et al. used the structured walk model of Richardson to establish that lava flows are fractals and that lava flow morphology could be determined by looking at the fractal dimension of flow margins. They determined that Hawaiian a.a flows have fractal dimensions that range from 1.05 to 1.09 and that the pahoehoe lava flows have a fractal dimension from 1.13 to 1.23. We have analyzed a number of natural and simulated lava flow margins and find that the fractal dimension varies according to the number and length of rod lengths used in the structured walk method. The potential variation we find in our analyses is sufficiently large so that unambiguous determination of lava flow morphology is problematic for some flows. We suggest that the structured walk method can provide meaningful fractal dimensions if rod lengths employed in the analysis provide a best-fit residual of greater than 0.98, as opposed to the 0.95 cutoff used in previous studies. We also find that the use of more than 4 rod lengths per analysis also reduces ambiguity in the results.

Hudson, Richard K.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Possible NASA Contributions to HEAT

A four-year experiment (HEAT) has been proposed (one summer in the field, 2005) to determine the sources and causes for the enhanced cloud-to-ground lightning over Houston, Texas, in association with simultaneous experiments by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission (TNRCC). Houston is the third most populous city in the United States and the region contains 50% of the petroleum refining capacity of the United States. Recent studies covering the period 1989-2000 document a 50% increase of cloud-to-ground lightning in the Houston area as compared to background values, which is second in flash density only to the Tampa Bay, Florida area. It is suggested that the elevated flash densities could result from several factors, including, 1) the convergence due to the urban heat island effect and complex sea breeze, and 2) the increasing levels of air pollution from anthropogenic sources producing numerous small droplets and thereby suppressing mean droplet size. The latter effect would enable more cloud water to reach the mixed phase region where it is involved in the formation of precipitation and the separation of electric charge, leading to an enhancement of lightning. The primary goals of HEAT are to examine the effects of (1) pollution, (2) the urban heat island, and (3) the complex coastline, on storms and lightning characteristics in the Houston area. The project is a multi- agency effort and will employ numerous observing capabilities and expertise. Dr. Shepherd has been asked to serve as a possible co- investigator to contribute expertise in areas related to urban impacts on precipitation variability. Dr. Shepherd is also a key NASA representative in the interagency effort. This presentation will provide an overview of recent NASA research focused on urban rainfall in Houston and offer potential NASA capabilities that could contribute to HEAT.

Shepherd, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Ordovician paleosols at Arisaig, Nova Scotia, and the evolution of the atmosphere

A series of Late Ordovician andesite flows are exposed along the coastline near Arisaig, Nova Scotia. Field relationships, textural and mineralogical evidence, and chemical analyses of three interflow units confirm that they are paleosols. The chemical variations observed in these paleosols are quite similar to those of modern soils developed on mafic volcanic rocks. Virtually all of the iron in the paleosols was oxidized and retained during weathering; however, in two of the three paleosols a small fraction of the ferrous iron escaped oxidation and was precipitated near the base of the paleosols. This redistribution of ferrous iron may reflect the presence of nonvascular land plants. The variations in the concentration of the major oxides produced by weathering of the andesites at Arisaig are consistent with the probable lower limit of 0.04 atm for the partial pressure of O2 in the atmosphere during the Late Ordovician. The current data base for Paleozoic and Precambrian paleosols indicates that a significant increase in the PO2/PCO2 ratio in the atmosphere took place about 2.0 x 10(9) years ago; since then the ratio of PO2/PCO2 in the atmosphere has been high enough to oxidize all of the iron in soils developed on igneous rocks.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2004

Understanding Sea Level Changes

Today more than 100 million people worldwide live on coastlines within one meter of mean sea level; any short-term or long-term sea level change relative to vertical ground motion is of great societal and economic concern. As palm-environment and historical data have clearly indicated the existence and prevalence of such changes in the past, new scientific information regarding to the nature and causes and a prediction capability are of utmost importance for the future. The 10-20 cm global sea-level rise recorded over the last century has been broadly attributed to two effects: (1) the steric effect (thermal expansion and salinity-density compensation of sea water) following global climate; (2) mass-budget changes due to a number of competing geophysical and hydrological processes in the Earth-atmosphere-hydrosphere-cryosphere system, including water exchange from polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers to the ocean, atmospheric water vapor and land hydrological variations, and anthropogenic effects such as water impoundment in artificial reservoirs and extraction of groundwater, all superimposed on the vertical motions of solid Earth due to tectonics, rebound of the mantle from past and present deglaciation, and other local ground motions. As remote-sensing tools, a number of space geodetic measurements of sea surface topography (e.g., TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason), ice mass (e.g., ICESat), time-variable gravity (e.g. GRACE), and ground motions (SLR, VLBI, GPS, InSAR, Laser altimetry, etc.) become directly relevant. Understanding sea level changes "anywhere, anytime" in a well-defined terrestrial reference frame in terms of climate change and interactions among ice masses, oceans, and the solid Earth, and being able to predict them, emerge as one of the scientific challenges in the Solid Earth Science Working Group (SESWG, 2003) conclusions.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

NASA NTRS2005

GRACE Gravity Data Target Possible Mega-impact in North Central Wilkes Land, Antarctica

A prominent positive GRACE satellite-measured free-air gravity anomaly over regionally depressed subglacial topography may identify a mascon centered on (70 deg S, 120 deg E) between the Gamburtsev and Transantarctic Mountains of East Antarctica. Being more than twice the size of the Chicxulub crater, the inferred Wilkes Land impact crater is a strong candidate for a Gondwana source of the greatest extinction of life at the end of the Permian. Its ring structure intersects the coastline and thus may have strongly influenced the Cenozoic rifting of East Antarctica from Australia that resulted in the enigmatic lack of crustal thinning on the conjugate Australian block.

vonFrese, Ralph R. B.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Forecasting of Storm Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

Increasing the accuracy of storm surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite element based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate.

Valenti, Elizabeth↗

NASA NTRS2006

Moving water to South America as observed from space

The approximate balance of the mass change rate measured by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) with the moisture influx across the entire coastline less climatological river discharge for South America (SA), in agreement with the conservation principle, bolsters not only the credibility of the spacebased measurements, but supports the characterization of ocean's influence on the annual variation of continental water balance. The moisture transport integrated over the depth of the atmosphere is estimated using measurements by QuikSCAT and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager. The large-scale geographic patterns of precipitation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the mass change rate were found to follow similar annual changes over South America.

monsoon↗

NASA NTRS2005

Improvements in the estimates of ice thickness and production in the Chukchi Sea polynyas derived from AMSR-E

For January-March 2003, we use 12.5-km resolution Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) data for the first time in a comparison with Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data to study two Chukchi coast polynyas, one consisting of many, the other of only a few 25-km SSM/I pixels. Within these polynyas, the ice thicknesses are derived separately from the SMM/I 37-GHz and AMSR 36-GHz channels; the heat fluxes are derived by combining thicknesses with meteorological data. Comparison with ScanSAR data shows that for the large polynya, because AMSR provides better resolution of the surrounding coastline and first-year ice, the AMSR heat losses are greater than the SSM/I; for the small polynya, AMSR measures its variability even when its area is order of a single SSM/I pixel. This means that AMSR permits more accurate calculation of polynya heat losses, yielding the potential of improved estimates of Arctic polynya productivity.

ice thicknesses↗

NASA NTRS2005

Improvements in the estimates of ice thickness and production in the Chukchi Sea polynyas derived from AMSR-E

Chukchi coast polynyas↗

NASA NTRS2005

Improvements in the estimates of ice thickness and production in the Chukchi Sea polynyas derived from AMSR-E

Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR)↗

NASA NTRS2005

Channel alignment and radiometry in hyperspectral atmospheric infrared sounders

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a hyper-spectral infrared sounder which covers the 3.7 to 15,4 micron region with 2378 spectral channels. The AIRS instrument specification called for spatial co-registration of all channels to better than 2% of the field of view. Pre-launch testing confirmed that this requirement was met, since the standard deviations in the centroids was about 1% of the 13.5 km IFOV in scan and 3% in track. Detailed analysis of global AIRS data show that the typical scene gradient in 10 micron window channels is about I .3K/km rms. The way these gradients, which are predominantly caused by clouds, manifest themselves in the data depends on the details of the instrument design and the way the spectral channels are used in the data analysis, AIRS temperature and moisture retrievals use 328 of the 2378 channels from 17 independent arrays. As a result, the effect of the boresight misalignment averages to zero mean. Any increase in the effective noise is less than 0.2K. Also, there is no discernable performance degradation of products at the 45 km spatial resolution in the presence of partially cloudy scenes with up to 80% cloudiness. Single pixel radiometric differences between channels with boresight alignment differences can be appreciable and can affect scientific investigations on a single 15km footprint scale, particularly near coastlines, thunderstorms and surface emissivity inhomogeneities.

sounders↗

NASA NTRS2006

SeaWinds Scatterometer Wind Vector Retrievals Within Hurricanes Using AMSR and NEXRAD to Perform Corrections for Precipitation Effects: Comparison of AMSR and NEXRAD Retrievals of Rain

The opportunity provided by satellite scatterometers to measure ocean surface winds in strong storms and hurricanes is diminished by the errors in the received backscatter (SIGMA-0) caused by the attenuation, scattering and surface roughening produced by heavy rain. Providing a good rain correction is a very challenging problem, particularly at Ku band (13.4 GHz) where rain effects are strong. Corrections to the scatterometer measurements of ocean surface winds can be pursued with either of two different methods: empirical or physical modeling. The latter method is employed in this study because of the availability of near simultaneous and collocated measurements provided by the MIDORI-II suite of instruments. The AMSR was designed to measure atmospheric water-related parameters on a spatial scale comparable to the SeaWinds scatterometer. These quantities can be converted into volumetric attenuation and scattering at the Ku-band frequency of SeaWinds. Optimal estimates of the volume backscatter and attenuation require a knowledge of the three dimensional distribution of reflectivity on a scale comparable to that of the precipitation. Studies selected near the US coastline enable the much higher resolution NEXRAD reflectivity measurements evaluate the AMSR estimates. We are also conducting research into the effects of different beam geometries and nonuniform beamfilling of precipitation within the field-of-view of the AMSR and the scatterometer. Furthermore, both AMSR and NEXRAD estimates of atmospheric correction can be used to produce corrected SIGMA-0s, which are then input to the JPL wind retrieval algorithm.

SeaWinds↗

NASA NTRS2006

Atlantic to Mediterranean Sea Level Difference Driven by Winds near Gibraltar Strait

Observations and numerical simulations show that winds near Gibraltar Strait cause an Atlantic Ocean to Mediterranean Sea sea level difference of 20 cm peak to peak with a 3-cm standard deviation for periods of days to years. Theoretical arguments and numerical experiments establish that this wind-driven sea level difference is caused in part by storm surges due to alongshore winds near the North African coastline on the Atlantic side of Gibraltar. The fraction of the Moroccan coastal current offshore of the 284-m isobath is deflected across Gibraltar Strait, west of Camarinal Sill, resulting in a geostrophic surface pressure gradient that contributes to a sea level difference at the stationary limit. The sea level difference is also caused in part by the along-strait wind setup, with a contribution proportional to the along-strait wind stress and to the length of Gibraltar Strait and adjoining regions and inversely proportional to its depth.

atmospheric pressure fluctuations↗

NASA NTRS2007

Saharan Air and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Suppression From a Global Modeling Perspective

During summer 2006, the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (NAMMA) organized a field campaign in Africa called Special Observation Period (SOP-3), in which scientists in the field were involved in a number of surface network and aircraft measurements. One of the scientific goals of the campaign was to understand the nature and causes for tropical cyclogenesis originating out of African Easterly Waves (AEWs, westward propagating atmospheric disturbances sometimes associated with precursors of hurricanes), and the role that the Saharan Air Layer (SAL, a hot and dry air layer advecting large amounts of dust) can play in the formation or suppression of tropical cyclones. During the NAMMA campaign a high-resolution global model, the NASA GEOS-5, was operationally run by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) in support to the mission. The daily GEOS-5 forecasts were found to be very useful by decision-making scientists in the field as an aid to discriminate between developing and non-developing AEWs and plan the flight tracks. In the post-event analyses which were performed mostly by the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres, two events were highlighted: a non-developing AEW which appeared to have been suppressed by Saharan air, compared to a developing AEW which was the precursor of hurricane Helene. Both events were successfully predicted by the GEOS-5 during the real-time forecasts provided in support to the mission. In this work it is found that very steep moisture gradients and a strong thermal dipole, with relatively warm air in the mid-troposphere and cool air below, are associated with SAL in both the GEOS-5 forecasts and the NCEP analyses, even at -great distance- from the Sahara. The presence of these unusual thermodynamic features over the Atlantic Ocean, at several thousands of kilometers from the African coastline, is suggestive that SAL mixing is very minimal and that the model's capability of retaining the different properties of air masses during transport are important to represent effectively the role of dry air intrusions in the tropical circulation.

Reale, O.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Models of Active Glacial Isostasy Roofing Warm Subduction: Case of the South Patagonian Ice Field

Modern geodetic techniques such as precise Global Positioning System (GPS) and high-resolution space gravity mapping (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE) make it possible to measure the present-day rate of viscoelastic gravitational Earth response to present and past glacier mass changes. The Andes of Patagonia contain glacial environments of dramatic mass change. These mass load changes occur near a tectonically active boundary between the Antarctic and South American plates. The mechanical strength of the continental side of this boundary is influenced by Neogene ridge subduction and by the subduction of a youthful oceanic slab. A ridge of young volcanos parallels the Pacific coastline. Release of volatiles (such as water) at depth along this ridge creates a unique rheological environment. To assess the influence of this rheological ridge structure on the observational land uplift rate, we apply a two dimensional viscoelastic Earth model. A numerical study is presented which examines the sensitivity of the glacial loading-unloading response to the complex structure at depth related to the subducting slab, the viscous wedge between slab and continental lithosphere, and the increase of elastic thickness from oceanic to continental lithosphere. A key feature revealed by our numerical experiments is a continuum flow wherein the slab subdues the material transport toward oceanic mantle and crust. The restricted flow is sensitive to the details of slab mechanical strength and penetration into the upper mantle. The reduced viscosity within the mantle wedge, however, enhances the load-induced material transport everywhere within the asthenosphere.

crustal mass changes↗

NASA NTRS2010

Evaluation of Enhanced High Resolution MODIS/AMSR-E SSTs and the Impact on Regional Weather Forecast

Over the last few years, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been generating a 1-km sea surface temperature (SST) composite derived from retrievals of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for use in operational diagnostics and regional model initialization. With the assumption that the day-to-day variation in the SST is nominal, individual MODIS passes aboard the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua and Terra satellites are used to create and update four composite SST products each day at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, valid over the western Atlantic and Caribbean waters. A six month study from February to August 2007 over the marine areas surrounding southern Florida was conducted to compare the use of the MODIS SST composite versus the Real-Time Global SST analysis to initialize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Substantial changes in the forecast heat fluxes were seen at times in the marine boundary layer, but relatively little overall improvement was measured in the sensible weather elements. The limited improvement in the WRF model forecasts could be attributed to the diurnal changes in SST seen in the MODIS SST composites but not accounted for by the model. Furthermore, cloud contamination caused extended periods when individual passes of MODIS were unable to update the SSTs, leading to substantial SST latency and a cool bias during the early summer months. In order to alleviate the latency problems, the SPoRT Center recently enhanced its MODIS SST composite by incorporating information from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) instruments as well as the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis. These enhancements substantially decreased the latency due to cloud cover and improved the bias and correlation of the composites at available marine point observations. While these enhancements improved upon the modeled cold bias using the original MODIS SSTs, the discernable impacts on the WRF model were still somewhat limited. This paper explores several factors that may have contributed to this result. First, the original methodology to initialize the model used the most recent SST composite available in a hypothetical real ]time configuration, often matching the forecast initial time with an SST field that was 5-8 hours offset. To minimize the differences that result from the diurnal variations in SST, the previous day fs SST composite is incorporated at a time closest to the model initialization hour (e.g. 1600 UTC composite at 1500 UTC model initialization). Second, the diurnal change seen in the MODIS SST composites was not represented by the WRF model in previous simulations, since the SSTs were held constant throughout the model integration. To address this issue, we explore the use of a water skin-temperature diurnal cycle prediction capability within v3.1 of the WRF model to better represent fluctuations in marine surface forcing. Finally, the verification of the WRF model is limited to very few over-water sites, many of which are located near the coastlines. In order to measure the open ocean improvements from the AMSR-E, we could use an independent 2-dimensional, satellite-derived data set to validate the forecast model by applying an object-based verification method. Such a validation technique could aid in better understanding the benefits of the mesoscale SST spatial structure to regional models applications.

Schiferl, Luke D.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Verify MesoNAM Performance

The AMU conducted an objective analysis of the MesoNAM forecasts compared to observed values from sensors at specified KSC/CCAFS wind towers by calculating the following statistics to verify the performance of the model: 1) Bias (mean difference), 2) Standard deviation of Bias, 3) Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and 4) Hypothesis test for Bias = O. The 45 WS LWOs use the MesoNAM to support launch weather operations. However, the actual performance of the model at KSC and CCAFS had not been measured objectively. The analysis compared the MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point to the observed values from the sensors on wind towers. The data were stratified by tower sensor, month and onshore/offshore wind direction based on the orientation of the coastline to each tower's location. The model's performance statistics were then calculated for each wind tower based on sensor height and model initialization time. The period of record for the data used in this task was based on the operational start of the current MesoNAM in mid-August 2006 and so the task began with the first full month of data, September 2006, through May 2010. The analysis of model performance indicated: a) The accuracy decreased as the forecast valid time from the model initialization increased, b) There was a diurnal signal in T with a cool bias during the late night and a warm bias during the afternoon, c) There was a diurnal signal in Td with a low bias during the afternoon and a high bias during the late night, and d) The model parameters at each vertical level most closely matched the observed parameters at heights closest to those vertical levels. The AMU developed a GUI that consists of a multi-level drop-down menu written in JavaScript embedded within the HTML code. This tool allows the LWO to easily and efficiently navigate among the charts and spreadsheet files containing the model performance statistics. The objective statistics give the LWOs knowledge of the model's strengths and weaknesses and the GUI allows quick access to the data which will result in improved forecasts for operations.

Bauman, William H., III↗

NASA NTRS2011

An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2011 Hurricane Season

Estimates are presented for the expected level of tropical cyclone activity for the 2011 North Atlantic Basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the frequency of tropical cyclones for the North Atlantic Basin during the 2011 hurricane season will be near to above the post-1995 means. Based on the Poisson distribution of tropical cyclone frequencies for the current more active interval 1995-2010, one computes P(r) = 63.7% for the expected frequency of the number of tropical cyclones during the 2011 hurricane season to be 14 plus or minus 3; P(r) = 62.4% for the expected frequency of the number of hurricanes to be 8 plus or minus 2; P(r) = 79.3% for the expected frequency of the number of major hurricanes to be 3 plus or minus 2; and P(r) = 72.5% for the expected frequency of the number of strikes by a hurricane along the coastline of the United States to be 1 plus or minus 1. Because El Nino is not expected to recur during the 2011 hurricane season, clearly, the possibility exists that these seasonal frequencies could easily be exceeded. Also examined are the effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phase and climatic change (global warming) on tropical cyclone seasonal frequencies, the variation of the seasonal centroid (latitude and longitude) location of tropical cyclone onsets, and the variation of the seasonal peak wind speed and lowest pressure for tropical cyclones.

Wilson, Robert M.↗