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NASA NTRS2015

Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.

Baker, Noel C.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

Baker, Noel C.↗

NASA NTRS2009

System for Automated Calibration of Vector Modulators

Vector modulators are used to impose baseband modulation on RF signals, but non-ideal behavior limits the overall performance. The non-ideal behavior of the vector modulator is compensated using data collected with the use of an automated test system driven by a LabVIEW program that systematically applies thousands of control-signal values to the device under test and collects RF measurement data. The technology innovation automates several steps in the process. First, an automated test system, using computer controlled digital-to-analog converters (DACs) and a computer-controlled vector network analyzer (VNA) systematically can apply different I and Q signals (which represent the complex number by which the RF signal is multiplied) to the vector modulator under test (VMUT), while measuring the RF performance specifically, gain and phase. The automated test system uses the LabVIEW software to control the test equipment, collect the data, and write it to a file. The input to the Lab - VIEW program is either user-input for systematic variation, or is provided in a file containing specific test values that should be fed to the VMUT. The output file contains both the control signals and the measured data. The second step is to post-process the file to determine the correction functions as needed. The result of the entire process is a tabular representation, which allows translation of a desired I/Q value to the required analog control signals to produce a particular RF behavior. In some applications, corrected performance is needed only for a limited range. If the vector modulator is being used as a phase shifter, there is only a need to correct I and Q values that represent points on a circle, not the entire plane. This innovation has been used to calibrate 2-GHz MMIC (monolithic microwave integrated circuit) vector modulators in the High EIRP Cluster Array project (EIRP is high effective isotropic radiated power). These calibrations were then used to create correction tables to allow the commanding of the phase shift in each of four channels used as a phased array for beam steering of a Ka-band (32-GHz) signal. The system also was the basis of a breadboard electronic beam steering system. In this breadboard, the goal was not to make systematic measurements of the properties of a vector modulator, but to drive the breadboard with a series of test patterns varying in phase and amplitude. This is essentially the same calibration process, but with the difference that the data collection process is oriented toward collecting breadboard performance, rather than the measurement of output from a network analyzer.

Lux, James↗

NASA NTRS1996

Light-Emitting Diodes (LED) for Primary Animal Habitat Lighting in Highly Controlled Environments

Significant alterations in Biological Clock responses have been reported following sidereal time changes (e.g., Jet-lag), and exposure to microgravity (e.g., daytime sleepiness). Additionally, light reduces circulating melatonin (spectral specificity greatest between 450-500 nm). It was hypothesized that LEDs can replace the current light sources used in zero gravity and terrestrial research laboratories because of their small size, low mass, low energy consumption and long functional life. This report evaluates the capacity of LEDs to entrain the circadian system of rats as judged by measurement of overt behavioral circadian rhythms (activity, feeding, drinking). These data were collected in highly controlled environments similar to the shuttle Animal Enclosure Modules. Two groups were compared: control - animals exposed to standard cool-white fluorescent lights, and test - animals exposed to LEDs with a spectral power distribution matching the fluorescent lights. Gross locomotor activity, feeding and drinking frequencies were continuously monitored and stored at 10 minute intervals. Animals were exposed to the following photoperiods: 28 days of 12L:12D, 19 days of 24L:0D and 16 days of 12L:12D. Light intensities tested varied between 0.1 to 100 lux. Rats received food and water ad libitum, and temperature and humidity were controlled throughout the study. The general health status of all rats was acceptable for each day of this study. No incidents of aggressive behavior were observed. Growth, locomotor activity, food and water consumption were comparable for all groups of animals, i.e, the circadian characteristics of the animals under these conditions were comparable. These results indicate that LED arrays are as effective in maintaining circadian rhythm stability as the commonly used cool-white fluorescent light sources. LEDs with their flexible spectrum, low energy requirements and minimal heat production have advantages for some chronopharmacology studies and for microgravity animal habitats.

Winget, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Preliminary Exploration of Adaptive State Predictor Based Human Operator Modeling

Control-theoretic modeling of the human operator dynamic behavior in manual control tasks has a long and rich history. In the last two decades, there has been a renewed interest in modeling the human operator. There has also been significant work on techniques used to identify the pilot model of a given structure. The purpose of this research is to attempt to go beyond pilot identification based on collected experimental data and to develop a predictor of pilot behavior. An experiment was conducted to quantify the effects of changing aircraft dynamics on an operator s ability to track a signal in order to eventually model a pilot adapting to changing aircraft dynamics. A gradient descent estimator and a least squares estimator with exponential forgetting used these data to predict pilot stick input. The results indicate that individual pilot characteristics and vehicle dynamics did not affect the accuracy of either estimator method to estimate pilot stick input. These methods also were able to predict pilot stick input during changing aircraft dynamics and they may have the capability to detect a change in a subject due to workload, engagement, etc., or the effects of changes in vehicle dynamics on the pilot.

Trujillo, Anna C.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Adaptive State Predictor Based Human Operator Modeling on Longitudinal and Lateral Control

Control-theoretic modeling of the human operator dynamic behavior in manual control tasks has a long and rich history. In the last two decades, there has been a renewed interest in modeling the human operator. There has also been significant work on techniques used to identify the pilot model of a given structure. The purpose of this research is to attempt to go beyond pilot identification based on collected experimental data and to develop a predictor of pilot behavior. An experiment was conducted to categorize these interactions of the pilot with an adaptive controller compensating during control surface failures. A general linear in-parameter model structure is used to represent a pilot. Three different estimation methods are explored. A gradient descent estimator (GDE), a least squares estimator with exponential forgetting (LSEEF), and a least squares estimator with bounded gain forgetting (LSEBGF) used the experiment data to predict pilot stick input. Previous results have found that the GDE and LSEEF methods are fairly accurate in predicting longitudinal stick input from commanded pitch. This paper discusses the accuracy of each of the three methods - GDE, LSEEF, and LSEBGF - to predict both pilot longitudinal and lateral stick input from the flight director's commanded pitch and bank attitudes.

Trujillo, Anna C.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Management behavior, group climate and performance appraisal at NASA

The relationships among manager behavior, group climate and managerial effectiveness are examined. Survey data were collected from 435 GM14-15 managers and their subordinates at NASA concerning management practices and perceptions of the group environment. Performance ratings of managers were obtained from their superiors. The results strongly supported a causal model in which subordinates' climate perceptions mediate the effects of manager behavior on performance. That is, the development of group climate provides the process through which the effects of manager practices may be understood. Analyses also revealed that the function performed by a manager and his group (e.g., research) influenced the specific nature of the causal dynamics. Some implications of the results for management training and development are discussed.

Manderlink, G.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Time-Extended Payoffs for Collectives of Autonomous Agents

A collective is a set of self-interested agents which try to maximize their own utilities, along with a a well-defined, time-extended world utility function which rates the performance of the entire system. In this paper, we use theory of collectives to design time-extended payoff utilities for agents that are both aligned with the world utility, and are "learnable", i.e., the agents can readily see how their behavior affects their utility. We show that in systems where each agent aims to optimize such payoff functions, coordination arises as a byproduct of the agents selfishly pursuing their own goals. A game theoretic analysis shows that such payoff functions have the net effect of aligning the Nash equilibrium, Pareto optimal solution and world utility optimum, thus eliminating undesirable behavior such as agents working at cross-purposes. We then apply collective-based payoff functions to the token collection in a gridworld problem where agents need to optimize the aggregate value of tokens collected across an episode of finite duration (i.e., an abstracted version of rovers on Mars collecting scientifically interesting rock samples, subject to power limitations). We show that, regardless of the initial token distribution, reinforcement learning agents using collective-based payoff functions significantly outperform both natural extensions of single agent algorithms and global reinforcement learning solutions based on "team games".

Tumer, Kagan↗

NASA NTRS1973

Topologies for neutral functional differential equations.

Bounded topologies are considered for functional differential equations of the neutral type in which present dynamics of the system are influenced by its past behavior. A special bounded topology is generated on a collection of absolutely continuous functions with essentially bounded derivatives, and an application to a class of nonlinear neutral functional differential equations due to Driver (1965) is presented.

Melvin, W. R.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Queuing theory models for computer networks

A set of simple queuing theory models which can model the average response of a network of computers to a given traffic load has been implemented using a spreadsheet. The impact of variations in traffic patterns and intensities, channel capacities, and message protocols can be assessed using them because of the lack of fine detail in the network traffic rates, traffic patterns, and the hardware used to implement the networks. A sample use of the models applied to a realistic problem is included in appendix A. Appendix B provides a glossary of terms used in this paper. This Ames Research Center computer communication network is an evolving network of local area networks (LANs) connected via gateways and high-speed backbone communication channels. Intelligent planning of expansion and improvement requires understanding the behavior of the individual LANs as well as the collection of networks as a whole.

Galant, David C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) results

Thermal control coatings, solar cells, and micrometeoroid capture cells were flown on the LDEF-Experiment S1002 to investigate the behavior of these components under space conditions and to collect micrometeoroids and debris. The experiment and the components to be investigated are described. The visual inspections, electrical and thermooptical measurements as well as chemical and metallurgical investigations conducted on the complete experiment as well as on single components are described, analyzed and discussed.

Preuss, Ludwig↗

NASA NTRS1991

Operator strategies under varying conditions of workload

An attempt was made to operationally define and measure strategic behavior in a complex multiple task environment. The Multi-Attribute Task battery was developed to simulate various aspects of flight and consisted of an auditory communication task, monitoring tasks, a tracking tasks, a resource management task which allowed a wide range of responding patterns, and a scheduling window which allowed operators to predict changes in workload. This battery was validated for its sensitivity to strategic behavior, and baseline measures for each individual task were collected. Twenty-four undergraduate and graduate students then performed the battery for four 64 minute sessions which took place over a period of 2 days. Each subject performed the task battery under four levels of workload, which were presented for equal lengths of time during all four sessions. Results indicated that in general, performance improves as a function of experience with the battery, but that performance decreased as workload level increased. The data also showed that subjects developed strategies for responding to the resource management task which allowed them to manage the high workload levels more efficiently. This particular strategy developed over time but was also associated with errors of complacency. These results are presented along with implications for the aviation field and areas of future research.

Arnegard, Ruth J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Solar Constant (SOLCON) Experiment: Ground Support Equipment (GSE) software development

The Solar Constant (SOLCON) Experiment, the objective of which is to determine the solar constant value and its variability, is scheduled for launch as part of the Space Shuttle/Atmospheric Laboratory for Application and Science (ATLAS) spacelab mission. The Ground Support Equipment (GSE) software was developed to monitor and analyze the SOLCON telemetry data during flight and to test the instrument on the ground. The design and development of the GSE software are discussed. The SOLCON instrument was tested during Davos International Solar Intercomparison, 1989 and the SOLCON data collected during the tests are analyzed to study the behavior of the instrument.

Gibson, M. Alan↗

NASA NTRS1992

Evaluation of LDEF experiment S1002

Thermal control coatings, solar cells, and micrometeoroid capture cells developed under government contract have been flown on the experiment to investigate both the behavior of these components under space conditions and to collect micrometeoroids and debris. The visual inspections, electrical and thermo-optical measurements as well as chemical and metallurgical investigations conducted on the complete experiment and on individual components are described, analyzed, and discussed. The postflight results of the thermal control coatings proved to be in good accordance with laboratory results.

Preuss, Ludwig↗

NASA NTRS1998

Reconstructing Ancient Forms of Life

Progress in the past three months has occurred in two areas, reconstruction of ancestral proteins and improved understanding of chemical features that are likely to be universal in generic matter regardless of its genesis. Ancestral ribonucleases have been reconstructed, and an example has been developed that shows how physiological function can be assigned to in vitro behaviors observed in biological systems. Sequence data have been collected to permit the reconstruction of src homology 2 domains that underwent radiative divergence at the time of the radiative divergence of chordates. New studies have been completed that show how genetic matter (or its remnants) might be detected on Mars (or other non-terrean locations.) Last, the first in vitro selection experiments have been completed using a nucleoside library carrying positively charged functionality, illustrating the importance of non-standard nucleotides to those attempting to obtain evidence for an "RNA world" as an early episode of life on earth.

Benner, Steven A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Performance Data Report: Space Medicine Division, Human Research Program, Behavioural Health and Performance Research Element

This report is the result of a collaborative effort between NASA?s Behavioral Health & Performance (BHP) Research and Operations Group to investigate and determine the availability of data pertaining to behavioral performance (and other pertinent variables) that have been collected by the laboratories at NASA?s Johnson Space Center. BHP?s Operations and Research groups collaborated to systematically identify what types of performance data are needed in relevant BHP performance domains and also to conduct structured interviews with NASA personnel to identify which data do or do not exist currently (and for instances where such data exist, to evaluate the type, quality, accessibility, and confidentiality of those data). The authors defined outcome categories of performance that encapsulate BHP performance domains, mapped BHP Research Risks and Gaps onto those performance outcome categories, and identified and prioritized indicators for each outcome category. The team identified key points of contact (subject matter experts [SMEs]) as potential interviewees, created a template for structured interview questions about sources and accessibility of performance data, and coordinated and conducted structured interviews with the SMEs. The methodology, results, and implications of this effort, as well as forward work needed, are discussed in this report.

Shea, Camille↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Quantifying and Correlating RTV Intumescence to Entry-Relevant Conditions

Room Temperature Vulcanizing silicone (RTV) is a high-temperature adhesive used as a gap-filler between Thermal Protection System (TPS) tiles for heatshields on numerous missions. It is also adopted to bond instrumentation plugs of temperature and pressure sensors into heatshield’s tiles. While RTV has been traditionally assumed to be a non-porous and non-ablating material, numerous experiments have shown that RTV pyrolyzes and becomes highly porous as it is heated. Experimental data has also shown heating rate-dependent swelling (or intumescence) and shrinking of RTV, these volume changes may cause roughness-induced boundary layer transition. Outgassing and surface oxide formation of RTV upon decomposition also occur, which can be sources of contamination of heat shield sensors. This combination of detrimental effects motivates a critical need to develop a high-fidelity model for RTV ablation. As a first critical step in RTV modeling, a comprehensive material properties database for RTV was collected that account for the lack of data in properties such as pyrolysis char yield, shape change, virgin and char porosity. The next step is to quantify the volume change of RTV as a function of temperature. While this was done in previous campaigns, limited data was collected which showed a possible heating rate dependent intumescent behavior. To further understand the intumescence phenomenon of RTV, numerous dedicated experiments were performed at Beamline 8.3.2 of the Advanced Light Source, where RTV samples were heated while X-ray scans were taken in situ. Micro-Computed Tomography scans were taken in situ for low heating rates (≤ 60 °C/min), whereas continuous radiography scans were taken for higher heating rates (≤ 1500 ºC/min). Unconstrained samples and samples constrained in different holders (quartz, graphite, FiberForm and PICA) were tested to determine the change in intumescence due to confinement. Using deep learning techniques, the tomographies and radiographies are segmented to obtain volume change, porosity, pore size distributions and connectivity. From the results obtained, modifications to the previous RTV intumescence model are proposed, along with preliminary comparisons to testing RTV at high-enthalpy facilities.

RTV↗

NASA NTRS2017

Highly Reducing Partitioning Experiments Relevant to the Planet Mercury

With the data returned from the MErcury Surface Space ENvironment GEochemistry and Ranging (MESSENGER) mission, there are now numerous constraints on the physical and chemical properties of Mercury, including its surface composition. The high S and low FeO contents observed from MESSENGER on the planet's surface suggests a low oxygen fugacity of the present planetary materials. Estimates of the oxygen fugacity for Mercurian magmas are approximately 3-7 log units below the Iron-Wüstite (Fe-FeO) oxygen buffer, several orders of magnitude more reducing than other terrestrial bodies we have data from such as the Earth, Moon, or Mars. Most of our understanding of elemental partitioning behavior comes from observations made on terrestrial rocks, but Mercury's oxygen fugacity is far outside the conditions of those samples. With limited oxygen available, lithophile elements may instead exhibit chalcophile, halophile, or siderophile behaviors. Furthermore, very few natural samples of rocks that formed under reducing conditions are available in our collections (e.g., enstatite chondrites, achondrites, aubrites). With this limited amount of material, we must perform experiments to determine the elemental partitioning behavior of typically lithophile elements as a function of decreasing oxygen fugacity. Experiments are being conducted at 4 GPa in an 880-ton multi-anvil press, at temperatures up to 1850degC. The composition of starting materials for the experiments were selected for the final run products to contain metal, silicate melt, and sulfide melt phases. Oxygen fugacity is controlled in the experiments by adding silicon metal to the samples, using the Si-SiO2 oxygen buffer, which is approximately 5 log units more reducing than the Fe-FeO oxygen buffer at our temperatures of interest. The target silicate melt compositional is diopside (CaMgSi2O6) because measured surface compositions indicate partial melting of a pyroxene-rich mantle. Elements detected on Mercury's surface by MESSENGER (K, Na, Fe, Ti, Cl, Al, Cr, Mn, U, Th) and other geochemically relevant elements (P, F, H, N, C, Co, Ni, Mo, Ce, Nd, Sm, Eu, Gd, Dy, Yb) are added to the starting composition at trace abundances (approximately 500 ppm) so that they are close enough to infinite dilution to follow Henry's law of trace elements, and their partitioning behavior can be measured between the metal, silicate, and sulfide phases. The results of these experiments will allow us to assess the thermal and magmatic evolution of the planet Mercury from a geochemical standpoint.

Rowland, Rick, II↗