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NASA NTRS2019

Complex Dynamics of Air Traffic Flow

Air traffic in the United States has continued to grow at a steady pace since 1980, except for a dip immediately after the tragic events of September 11, 2001. There are different growth scenarios associated both with the magnitude and the composition of the future air traffic. The Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), prepared every year by the FAA, projects the growth of traffic in the United States. Both Boeing and Airbus publish market outlooks for air travel annually. Although predicting the future growth of traffic is difficult, there are two significant trends: heavily congested major airports continue to see an increase in traffic, and the emergence of regional jets and other smaller aircraft with fewer passengers operating directly between non-major airports. The interaction between air traffic demand and the ability of the system to provide the necessary airport and airspace resources can be modeled as a network. The size of the resulting network varies depending on the choice of its nodes. It would be useful to understand the properties of this network to guide future design and development. Many questions, such as the growth of delay with increasing traffic demand and impact of the en route weather on future air traffic, require a systematic understanding of the properties of the air traffic network. There has been a major advance in the understanding of the behavior of networks with a large number of components. Several theories have been advanced about the evolution of large biological and engineering networks by authors in diversified disciplines like physics, mathematics, biology and computer science. Several networks exhibit a scale-free property in the sense that the probabilistic distribution of their nodes as a function of connections decreases slower than an exponential. These networks are characterized by the fact that a small number of components have a disproportionate influence on the performance of the network. Scale-free networks are tolerant to random failure of components, but are vulnerable to selective attack on components. This paper examines two network representations for the baseline air traffic system. A network defined with the 40 major airports as nodes and with standard flight routes as links has a characteristic scale: all nodes have 60 or more links and no node has more than 460 links. Another network is defined with baseline aircraft routing structure exhibits an exponentially truncated scale-free behavior. Its degree ranges from 2 connections to 2900 connections, and 225 nodes have more than 250 connections. Furthermore, those high-degree nodes are homogeneously distributed in the airspace. A consequence of this scale-free behavior is that the random loss of a single node has little impact, but the loss of multiple high-degree nodes (such as occurs during major storms in busy airspace) can adversely impact the system. Two future scenarios of air traffic growth are used to predict the growth of air traffic in the United States. It is shown that a three-times growth in the overall traffic may result in a ten-times impact on the density of traffic in certain parts of the United States.

Scale-free Networks↗

NASA NTRS2020

Forecasting Global Fire Emissions on Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Time Scales

Fire emissions of gases and aerosols alter atmospheric composition and have substantial impacts on climate, ecosystem function, and human health. Warming climate and human expansion in fire‐prone landscapes exacerbate fire impacts and call for more effective management tools. Here we developed a global fire forecasting system that predicts monthly emissions using past fire data and climate variables for lead times of 1 to 6 months. Using monthly fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) as the prediction target, we fit a statistical time series model, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with eXogenous variables (ARIMAX), in over 1,300 different fire regions. Optimized parameters were then used to forecast future emissions. The forecast system took into account information about region‐specific seasonality, long‐term trends, recent fire observations, and climate drivers representing both large‐scale climate variability and local fire weather. We cross‐validated the forecast skill of the system with different combinations of predictors and forecast lead times. The reference model, which combined endogenous and exogenous predictors with a 1 month forecast lead time, explained 52% of the variability in the global fire emissions anomaly, considerably exceeding the performance of a reference model that assumed persistent emissions during the forecast period. The system also successfully resolved detailed spatial patterns of fire emissions anomalies in regions with significant fire activity. This study bridges the gap between the efforts of near‐real‐time fire forecasts and seasonal fire outlooks and represents a step toward establishing an operational global fire, smoke, and carbon cycle forecasting system.

vapor pressure↗

NASA NTRS2007

Simulations of Tropospheric NO2 by the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Model Utilizing Assimilated and Forecast Meteorological Fields: Comparison to Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) Measurements

We present simulations of the tropospheric composition for the years 2004 and 2005, carried out by the GMI Combined Stratosphere-Troposphere (Combo) model, at a resolution of 2degx2.5deg. The model includes a new parameterization of lightning sources of NO(x) which is coupled to the cloud mass fluxes in the adopted meteorological fields. These simulations use two different sets of input meteorological fields: a)late-look assimilated fields from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), GEOS-4 system and b) 12-hour forecast fields initialized with the assimilated data. Comparison of the forecast to the assimilated fields indicates that the forecast fields exhibit less vigorous convection, and yield tropical precipitation fields in better agreement with observations. Since these simulations include a complete representation of the stratosphere, they provide realistic stratosphere-tropospheric fluxes of O3 and NO(y). Furthermore, the stratospheric contribution to total columns of different troposheric species can be subtracted in a consistent fashion, and the lightning production of NO(y) will depend on the adopted meteorological field. We concentrate here on the simulated tropospheric columns of NO2, and compare them to observations by the OM1 instrument for the years 2004 and 2005. The comparison is used to address these questions: a) is there a significant difference in the agreement/disagreement between simulations for these two different meteorological fields, and if so, what causes these differences?; b) how do the simulations compare to OMI observations, and does this comparison indicate an improvement in simulations with the forecast fields? c) what are the implications of these simulations for our understanding of the NO2 emissions over continental polluted regions?

Rodriquez, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2009

An Operational Assessment of the MODIS False Color Composite with the Great Falls, Montana National Weather Service

The close and productive collaborations between the NWS Warning and Forecast Office (WFO) in Great Falls, MT and the Short Term Prediction and Research Transition (SPORT) Center at NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center have provided a unique opportunity for science sharing and technology transfer. In particular, SPoRT has provided a false color composite product derived from MODIS data, which is part of NASA's Earth Observing System. This product is designed to delineate snow and ice covered ground, bare ground and clouds. The Great Falls WFO has been a test bed of the MODIS false color composite as a tool in operations to monitor the development and dissipation of snow cover In particular, preliminary applications have shown that the product can be used to monitor snow cover in remote locations as well as ice in rivers. This information can lead to improved assessments of flooding potential during post event conditions where rapid melting and runoff are anticipated. The potential of this product on future geostationary satellites may substantially contribute to the NWS mission by providing enhanced situational awareness. The operational use of this product has been transitioned at WFO Great Falls through a process of product implementation, discussions with the service hydrologist and forecasters, and post event analysis. A concentrated assessment period from January to March, 2008 was initiated to investigate the impact of the MODIS false color product on WFO Great Falls' operations. This presentation will emphasize the impact the MODIS false color product had in the WFO's situational awareness and how best this information can be used to influence operational decisions.

Loss, GIna↗

NASA NTRS2002

Land-Breeze Forecasting

The nocturnal land breeze at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) is both operationally significant and challenging to forecast. The occurrence and timing of land breezes impact low-level winds, atmospheric stability, low temperatures, and fog development. Accurate predictions of the land breeze are critical for toxic material dispersion forecasts associated with space launch missions, since wind direction and low-level stability can change noticeably with the onset of a land breeze. This report presents a seven-year observational study of land breezes over east-central Florida from 1995 to 2001. This comprehensive analysis was enabled by the high-resolution tower observations over KSC/CCAFS. Five-minute observations of winds, temperature, and moisture along with 9 15-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler data were used to analyze specific land-breeze cases, while the tower data were used to construct a composite climatology. Utilities derived from this climatology were developed to assist forecasters in determining the land-breeze occurrence, timing, and movement based on predicted meteorological conditions.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Prognostics As-A-Service: A Scalable Cloud Architecture for Prognostics

Comprehensive aircraft system health-state awareness is critical for maintaining safe, efficient growth in global operations, enabling higher levels of autonomy, and facilitating new forms of aviation. Maintainers, vehicle operators, air traffic controllers, dispatchers, pilots, autonomous systems, and other decision-makers must have reliable real-time knowledge of the vehicle health, the health of its critical composite systems, predictions of how health changes with time, and forecasts of how its capabilities change with health degradation to preserve safety and efficiency. Providing this information in a reliable manner in computationally constrained environments and across a wide range of vehicles and systems continues to be a challenge. This challenge can be partially resolved through cloud computing, where the execution of prognostic and diagnostic algorithms is performed on a network of remote servers hosted on the internet. NASA is developing a cloud computing service, Prognostics As-A-Service (PaaS), that explores the feasibility and challenges of cloud-enhanced prognostics. Though such a system has broad applicability, this research effort is focused on aviation applications.

Prognostics↗

NASA NTRS2018

Biogeochemical Effects of Rising Atmospheric CO2 on Terrestrial and Ocean Systems

Rising carbon dioxide (CO2) has decreased seawater pH at long-term observing stations around the world, including in the open ocean north of Oahu, Hawaii, near Alaska's Aleutian Islands, the Gulf of Maine shore, and on Gray's Reef in the southeastern United States. This ocean acidification process has already affected some marine species and altered fundamental ecosystem processes, and further effects are likely. While atmospheric CO rises at approximately the same rate all over the globe, its non-climate effects on land vary depending on climate and dominant species. In terrestrial ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO concentrations are expected to increase plant photosynthesis, growth, and water-use efficiency, though these effects are reduced when nutrients, drought or other factors limit plant growth. Rising CO would likely change carbon storage and influence terrestrial hydrology and biogeochemical cycling, but concomitant effects on vegetation composition and nutrient feedbacks are challenging to predict, making decadal forecasts uncertain. Consequences of rising atmospheric CO are expected to include difficult-to-predict changes in the ecosystem services that terrestrial and ocean systems provide to humans. For instance, ocean acidification resulting from rising CO has decreased the supply of larvae that sustains commercial shellfish production in the northwestern United States. In addition, CO fertilization (increases) plus warming (decreases) are changing terrestrial crop yields. Continued persistence of uptake of carbon by the land and ocean is uncertain. Climate and environmental change create complex feedbacks to the carbon cycle and it is not clear how feedbacks modulate future effects of rising CO on carbon sinks. These are several mechanisms that could reduce future sink capacity.

Biogeochemical↗

NASA NTRS2012

The SPoRT-WRF: Evaluating the Impact of NASA Datasets on Convective Forecasts

Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) seeks to improve short-term, regional weather forecasts using unique NASA products and capabilities SPoRT has developed a unique, real-time configuration of the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)WRF (ARW) that integrates all SPoRT modeling research data: (1) 2-km SPoRT Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Composite, (2) 3-km LIS with 1-km Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVFs) (3) 45-km AIRS retrieved profiles. Transitioned this real-time forecast to NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) as deterministic model at Experimental Forecast Program (EFP). Feedback from forecasters/participants and internal evaluation of SPoRT-WRF shows a cool, dry bias that appears to suppress convection likely related to methodology for assimilation of AIRS profiles Version 2 of the SPoRT-WRF will premier at the 2012 EFP and include NASA physics, cycling data assimilation methodology, better coverage of precipitation forcing, and new GVFs

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

NASA NTRS2006

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Project Status

This viewgraph presentation reviews the status of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU). These instruments are on board the EOS Aqua Spacecraft that was launched May 4, 2002. The instruments are working normally. The objectives of the mission were to improve weather forecasting, assist in climate studies, and provide information as to the composition of Earth's atmosphere. The Aqua spacecraft is operating normally, the the primary life-limiting resource is fuel for maneuvers. The presentation also contains charts indicating who are using the data. There is information on the type of data available, and the propsal process. Also there is a few views of some of the planned instruments that were made possible in part due to the success of AIRS.

science team↗

NASA NTRS2017

Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model

Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model developed by MSFC that is widely used for diverse mission applications including: Systems design; Performance analysis; Operations planning for aerobraking, Entry, Descent and Landing, and aerocapture; Is not a forecast model; Outputs include density, temperature, pressure, wind components, and chemical composition; Provides dispersions of thermodynamic parameters, winds, and density; Optional trajectory and auxiliary profile input files Has been used in multiple studies and proposals including NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) Autonomous Aerobraking and various Discovery proposals; Released in 2005; Available at: https://software.nasa.gov/software/MFS-32314-1.

Justh, Hilary L.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Montana Water Resources: Developing a Composite Moisture Index Utilizing NASA Earth Observations for Drought Monitoring in the Missouri River Basin

The Missouri River Basin provides irrigation water for a substantial part of the domestic agricultural sector within the United States. Drought events pose a significant threat to the economic livelihoods of dependent individuals, industries, and ecosystems (e.g. farmers, local tribes, hydroelectric power, wildlife). In 2017 alone, the Missouri River Basin experienced a severe drought that resulted in a $2.6 billion loss to the U.S. Northern Plains. In response to such events, organizations throughout the basin, such as the Montana Climate Office, have dedicated efforts for drought monitoring and communicating relevant information to local stakeholders. In an effort to aid regional decision-making capabilities, the project team partnered with the Montana Climate Office, NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Missouri Basin River Forecast Center, and NOAA Regional Climate Services, Central Region to create a monthly Composite Moisture Index (CMI) that relies on NASA Earth observations from the Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. From these satellites, as well as the NOAA NWS National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center’s Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS), our team aggregated climate datasets including soil moisture, snow cover, snow depth, and snow water equivalent to compute a CMI that indicates regional moisture conditions during the winter months. The March CMI values produced over the Missouri River headwater subbasin strongly correlate (r = 0.75) with spring and early summer stream discharge, demonstrating the use of this metric to indicate moisture conditions for the snowmelt and growing seasons.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

NASA NTRS2021

Montana Water Resources: Developing a Composite Moisture Index Utilizing NASA Earth Observations for Drought Monitoring in Montana and the Missouri River Basin

The Missouri River Basin provides irrigation water for a substantial part of the domestic agricultural sector within the United States. Drought events pose a significant threat to economic livelihoods of dependent individuals, industries, and ecosystems (e.g., farmers, local tribes, hydroelectric power, wildlife). In 2017 alone, the Missouri River Basin experienced a severe drought that resulted in a $2.6 billion loss to the U.S. Northern Plains. In response to such events, organizations throughout the basin, such as the Montana Climate Office, have dedicated efforts for drought monitoring and communicating relevant information to local stakeholders. In an effort to aid regional decision-making capabilities, the project team partnered with the Montana Climate Office, NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Missouri Basin River Forecast Center, and NOAA Regional Climate Services, Central Region to create a monthly Composite Moisture Index (CMI) that relies on NASA Earth observations from the Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. From these satellites, as well as the NOAA NWS National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS), our team aggregated climate datasets including soil moisture, snow cover, snow depth, and snow water equivalent to compute a CMI that indicates regional moisture conditions during the winter months. The March CMI values produced over the Missouri River headwater subbasin strongly correlate (r = 0.75) with spring and early summer stream discharge, demonstrating the use of this metric to indicate moisture conditions for the snowmelt and growing seasons.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗

NASA NTRS1990

US computer research networks: Domestic and international telecommunications capacity requirements

The future telecommunications capacity and connectivity requirements of the United States (US) research and development (R&D) community raise two concerns. First, would there be adequate privately-owned communications capacity to meet the ever-increasing requirements of the US R&D community for domestic and international connectivity? Second, is the method of piecemeal implementation of communications facilities by individual researchers cost effective when viewed from an integrated perspective? To address the capacity issue, Contel recently completed a study for NASA identifying the current domestic R&D telecommunications capacity and connectivity requirements, and projecting the same to the years 1991, 1996, 2000, and 2010. The work reported here extends the scope of an earlier study by factoring in the impact of international connectivity requirements on capacity and connectivity forecasts. Most researchers in foreign countries, as is the case with US researchers, rely on regional, national or continent-wide networks to collaborate with each other, and their US counterparts. The US researchers' international connectivity requirements, therefore, stem from the need to link the US domestic research networks to foreign research networks. The number of links and, more importantly, the speeds of links are invariably determined by the characteristics of the networks being linked. The major thrust of this study, therefore, was to identify and characterize the foreign research networks, to quantify the current status of their connectivity to the US networks, and to project growth in the connectivity requirements to years 1991, 1996, 2000, and 2010 so that a composite picture of the US research networks in the same years could be forecasted. The current (1990) US integrated research network, and its connectivity to foreign research networks is shown. As an example of projections, the same for the year 2010 is shown.

Kratochvil, D.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Integration of RGB "Dust" Imagery to Operations at the Albuquerque Forecast Office

The NASA/Short‐term Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program has been providing unique Red‐Green‐Blue (RGB) composite imagery to its operational partners since 2005. In the early years of activity these RGB products were related to a True Color RGB, showing what one's own eyes would see if looking down at earth from space, as well as a Snow‐Cloud RGB (i.e. False Color), separating clouds from snow on the ground. More recently SPoRT has used the EUMETSAT Best Practices standards for RGB composites to transition a wide array of imagery for multiple uses. A "Dust" RGB product has had particular use at the Albuquerque, New Mexico WFO. Several cases have occurred where users were able to isolate dust plume locations for mesoscale and microscale events during day and night time conditions. In addition the "Dust" RGB can be used for more than just detection of dust as it is sensitive to the changes in density due to atmospheric moisture content. Hence low‐level dry boundaries can often be discriminated. This type of imagery is a large change from the single channel imagery typically used by operational forecast staff and hence, can be a challenge to interpret. This presentation aims to discuss the integration of such new imagery into operational use as well as the benefits assessed by the Albuquerque WFO over several documented events.

Fuell, Kevin↗

NASA NTRS2014

Integration of RGB "Dust" Imagery to Operations at the Albuqueque Forecast Office

Fuell, Kevin↗

NASA NTRS1980

Numerical simulation of advection fog formation on multi-disperse aerosols due to combustion-related pollutants

The effects of multi-disperse distribution of the aerosol population are presented. Single component and multi-component aerosol species on the condensation/nucleation processes which affect the reduction in visibility are described. The aerosol population with a high particle concentration provided more favorable conditions for the formation of a denser fog than the aerosol population with a greater particle size distribution when the value of the mass concentration of the aerosols was kept constant. The results were used as numerical predictions of fog formation. Two dimensional observations in horizontal and vertical coordinates, together with time-dependent measurements were needed as initial values for the following physical parameters: (1)wind profiles; (2) temperature profiles; (3) humidity profiles; (4) mass concentration of aerosol particles; (5) particle size distribution of aerosols; and (6) chemical composition of aerosols. Formation and dissipation of advection fog, thus, can be forecasted numerically by introducing initial values obtained from the observations.

Hung, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2000

An Assessment of Our Ability to Model the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere in Interactive Climate Models

The physics of the upper troposphere is dominated by the different phases of water, while the lower stratosphere is governed by the presence of ozone. The tropopause may be regarded as the layer which separates the regions where stratospheric and tropospheric processes dominate the physics, but it is clearly not a smooth transition level. Modelling this region in comprehensive climate models is complicated, partly because of the constraints inherent in numerical methods (such as the finite resolution used in models) and partly because of our incomplete knowledge of the physical and chemical interactions which occur (such as the phase transitions of water and the composition of aerosols). However, studies of stratospheric impacts on climate change clearly require the tropopause region to be modelled with a high degree of accuracy. This paper will examine how well we can currently model the structure and dynamics of the tropopause region; this includes some comparisons of the simulated atmospheric composition with observational estimates of these species, some studies of discrepancies between forecasts and observations in the Data Assimilation System of the Data Assimilation office, and inferences for sparsely observed quantities. The analysis will focus on meteorological quantities, physical forcing mechanisms, and the transport and interactions of trace species.

Pawson, Steven↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Coupled Aerosol-Chemistry Simulations of the January 2022 Eruptions of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai in the NASA GEOS Earth System Model

The January 2022 eruptions of the underwater Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano injected more than 100 Tg of water vapor and approximately 0.5 Tg of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. Injected materials reached as high as ~55 km in altitude, while the main plume from the eruption travelled west over Australia and the Indian Ocean between about 20 – 30 km altitude. We investigate the transport and the impact of the erupted materials in coupled aerosol-chemistry simulations performed with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Earth system model. A sulfur mechanism introduced into the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) stratospheric-tropospheric chemistry package allows for an interactive simulation of the water vapor-chemistry impacts, and the large water vapor perturbation results in rapid conversion of sulfur dioxide to sulfate aerosol in our aerosol mechanism. We report on the results of a multi-year ensemble of simulations performed with this system that include a control ensemble (no eruption), a water vapor-only injection ensemble, and a water vapor and sulfur dioxide injection ensemble. Simulations of the near-field aerosol and chemistry transport are compared to available measurements from OMPS-LP, OMPS-NM, CALIOP, MLS, and other sensors. The extended impact of the volcanic materials on the stratospheric composition and chemistry over the next several years is further investigated in forecast simulations.

Peter Colarco↗