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Covariance Manipulation for Conjunction Assessment

Use of probability of collision (Pc) has brought sophistication to CA. Made possible by JSpOC precision catalogue because provides covariance. Has essentially replaced miss distance as basic CA parameter. Embrace of Pc has elevated methods to 'manipulate' covariance to enable/improve CA calculations. Two such methods to be examined here; compensation for absent or unreliable covariances through 'Maximum Pc' calculation constructs, projection (not propagation) of epoch covariances forward in time to try to enable better risk assessments. Two questions to be answered about each; situations to which such approaches are properly applicable, amount of utility that such methods offer.

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Conjunction Assessment Late-Notice High-Interest Event Investigation: Space Weather Aspects

Late-notice events usually driven by large changes in primary (protected) object or secondary object state. Main parameter to represent size of state change is component position difference divided by associated standard deviation (epsilon divided by sigma) from covariance. Investigation determined actual frequency of large state changes, in both individual and combined states. Compared them to theoretically expected frequencies. Found that large changes ( (epsilon divided by sigma) is greater than 3) in individual object states occur much more frequently than theory dictates. Effect is less pronounced in radial components and in events with probability of collision (Pc) greater than 1 (sup -5) (1e-5). Found combined state matched much closer to theoretical expectation, especially for radial and cross-track. In-track is expected to be the most vulnerable to modeling errors, so not surprising that non-compliance largest in this component.

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Conjunction Assessment at NASA

The number of objects in orbit is growing exponentially The space environment today is very different from a decade ago and continues to evolve very rapidly - Historically, space operations were domain of large governmental entities. - Commercial space operators are becoming commonplace and have different business models than government actors - CubeSats are cost effective and accessible for everyone, even down to elementary schools - Challenge in educating new space actors on best practices and availability of data and tools Technology enabling this access has rapidly evolved, while no regulatory framework has been established to ensure that space can be used safely by all.

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Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Materials for short course. This briefing from NASA is one segment of a larger 3-day course being presented by multiple entities.

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Conjunction Assessment and Deconfliction Paradigm for Co-located Satellite Constellations with On-Spacecraft “Autonomous” Flight Dynamics Control

Constellations that employ highly-automated satellite flight dynamics can operate safely from a collision avoidance (CA) perspective using current CA screening technology and communication paradigms—except when in proximity to other highly-automated constellations: there is no existing arrangement and concept of operations to allow the low-latency CA screenings, exchange of information, and assignment/acceptance of mitigation responsibility that co-location of highly-automated constellations requires. However, the serendipitous co-location of the NASA Starling mission—an autonomously-controlled technology demonstration constellation—and the SpaceX Starlink constellation has presented an opportunity (indeed, a requirement) to develop and build out a solution for safe operations of two (or more) co-located, highly-automated satellite constellations. Such a solution has been designed and constructed, including the required ground node; and it will be exercised as a dedicated, in-flight safety experiment between the two constellations from January to September 2024. Lessons learned from this experiment are expected to feed the design of the US Department of Commerce’s Tracking Control System for Space (TraCSS) space traffic coordination solution.

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