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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Corrosion Testing of Refractory in Contact with Molten Glasses Designed for Waste Vitrification – VSL Touchpoint Matrix Glasses (Revision 1)

It is known that the predictive life of the refractory ceramic liner of nuclear waste glass melters is conservative, as demonstrated by performance of these materials such as in the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF).[1] The motivation for this task is to maximize the useful life of the melters that will be operated at the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP), which will in turn minimize procurement and disposal costs and melter outage times, as well as to identify maximum loadings in the waste glass of those species that corrode melter components. This task was initiated jointly with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) with the objective to develop a methodology and model to enable more accurate prediction of refractory service life under prototypic conditions from laboratory-scale material corrosion tests.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physical implications of the extrapolation and statistical bootstrap of nucleon structure function ratios F 2 n F 2 p for mirror nuclei He 3 and H 3

A nuclear physics example of statistical bootstrap is used on the MARATHON nucleon structure function ratio data in the quark momentum fraction regions x B → 0 and x B → 1. The extrapolated F 2 ratio as quark momentum fraction x B → 1 is $\frac{F^n_2}{F^p_2}$ → 0.4 ± 0.05 and this value is compared to theoretical predictions. The extrapolated ratio when x B → 0 favors the simple model of isospin symmetry with the complete dominance of sea quarks at low momentum fraction. At high- x B , the proton quark distribution function ratio d/u is derived from the F 2 ratio and found to be d/u → 1/6. Our extrapolated values for both the $\frac{F^n_2}{F^p_2}$ ratio and the d/u parton distribution function ratio are within uncertainties of perturbative QCD values from quark counting, helicity conservation arguments, and a Dyson-Schwinger equation with a contact interaction model. In addition, it is possible to match the statistical bootstrap value to theoretical predictions by allowing two compatible models to act simultaneously in the nucleon wave function. Finally, one such example is nucleon wave functions composed of a linear combination of a quark-diquark state and a three-valence quark correlated state with coefficients that combine to give the extrapolated F 2 ratio at x B = 1.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and Analysis for Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Testing

Note: This is the final public release version of PNNL-31671 Draft, which was previously released to the sponsor for review. The intent is the public release version will be PNNL-31671. There are no significant changes from the earlier draft version. This unlimited distribution report is the deliverable for M3SF-21PN010202014: Modeling and Analysis for Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Testing. This report summarizes the modeling, analysis, and test plan support completed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the spent nuclear fuel dry storage system seismic test plan through May of 2021. Test plan preparation is planned to continue until the seismic test is completed in July of 2022. This report covers preliminary structural dynamic model development and computer-aided design of test hardware. Based on preliminary modeling, the strongest earthquakes under consideration in this test program provide mechanical loading on the spent nuclear fuel that is comparable to the 30 cm cask drop scenario, although the loads do not appear to be strong enough to cause significant permanent deformation of the fuel assembly spacer grids. The potential for grid deformation during the test will be assessed when the proposed shake table motion becomes available. The weakest earthquakes considered in this test are expected to be comparable to the mechanical loads witnessed in the multimodal transportation test of 2017. The horizontal canister system is predicted to provide nearly-uniform loading condition on the fuel assemblies it contains, while the vertical cask system is predicted to cause non-uniform dynamic loads on the fuel assemblies. In the horizontal case, gravity keeps the fuel assemblies in contact with one basket wall surface unless the loads are strong enough to cause a separation. In the vertical case, the fuel assemblies are relatively long and slender, and seismic motion in the anticipated test range is predicted to cause the assemblies to lean, tilt, and impact the basket walls throughout the seismic event. These gap closures are a nonlinear force transmission condition, so the vertical system is expected to have more variation and variability than the horizontal system. While the horizontal system is expected to have a relatively more linear response than the vertical system, there is still the potential for nonlinear behavior in the horizontal system because the fuel assemblies are free to slide, bounce, and impact the basket walls if the seismic loads are strong enough. One major conclusion of this study is that the use of mixed fuel assemblies in the canister will be acceptable. There are differences in overall system response when the mass, center of gravity, or gaps are changed, but the changes in response are within the bounds of a system that contains completely homogeneous fuel assemblies. One important observation is that the loading for each individual fuel assembly within the vertical canister is expected to be different from that of the others because of nonlinearities in the system. The horizontal canister system is expected to have a more uniform and more predictable response than the vertical canister, making variations in fuel assembly characteristics easier to account for. One important recommendation that comes from this modeling work is to repeat some of the strongest shake tests at different angles, particularly for the vertical cask system. Modeling predicts that strong seismic motion will cause the fuel assemblies to close initial gaps and impact the fuel basket walls when the canister is in the vertical cask configuration. Each shake test will impose a pre-defined three-dimensional time history on the cask system.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predictive dynamic wetting, fluid–structure interaction simulations for braze run-out

Brazing and soldering are metallurgical joining techniques that use a wetting molten metal to create a joint between two faying surfaces. Here, the quality of the brazing process depends strongly on the wetting properties of the molten filler metal, namely the surface tension and contact angle, and the resulting joint can be susceptible to various defects, such as run-out and underfill, if the material properties or joining conditions are not suitable. In this work, we implement a finite element simulation to predict the formation of such defects in braze processes. This model incorporates both fluid–structure interaction through an arbitrary Eulerian–Lagrangian technique and free surface wetting through conformal decomposition finite element modeling. Upon validating our numerical simulations against experimental run-out studies on a silver-Kovar system, we then use the model to predict run-out and underfill in systems with variable surface tension, contact angles, and applied pressure. Finally, we consider variable joint/surface geometries and show how different geometrical configurations can help to mitigate run-out. This work aims to understand how brazing defects arise and validate a coupled wetting and fluid–structure interaction simulation that can be used for other industrial problems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validating corrosion models: Influence of physical properties

In chloride containing environments, two metals in physical contact can undergo galvanic corrosion limiting the lifetime of components. Being able to accurately predict galvanic corrosion damage distributions over time has not been widely presented in literature. Therefore, Finite Element Method (FEM) corrosion models were experimentally validated for two galvanic couples as a function of governing equations, environment, anode material, anode:cathode ratio, and time. Carbon steel/stainless steel (CS/SS) and zinc/stainless steel (Zn/SS) galvanic couples were exposed to NaCl solutions at room temperatures for up to 14 days. For the galvanic couples and environments, the Laplace equation with variable conductivity and reactions was sufficient to model the experimental corrosion damage. Increasing the chloride concentration for the CS/SS galvanic couple, regardless of the anode:cathode ratio, decreased the observed and modeled corrosion damage. Decreasing the anode:cathode ratio (i.e., increasing the cathode length), increased the experimentally observed and modeled corrosion damage. For small anode:cathode ratios, the governing equations deviate over long time periods with the Nernst-Plank equation being conservative. For the Zn/SS galvanic couple, the cathode length controls the dominant cathodic reduction reaction. For small cathode lengths, the hydrogen evolution reaction is dominant. For larger cathode lengths, the oxygen reduction reaction is dominant. The results are discussed with regard to the influence of solution chemistry, ohmic drop, and governing reactions. Overall, validated FEM models were presented, and the resultant models, physics, and mechanisms can be applied to other corrosion scenarios with confidence.

Carbon steel↗
DOE OSTI2024

A generalized analytical energy balance model for evaluating agglomeration from a binary collision of wet particles

Agglomeration of wet particles, i.e., particles coated with a thin liquid layer, is a common phenomenon in many processes like fluidized bed combustion of low rank fuels. The availability of an agglomeration model that can evaluate the outcome of a binary collision between wet particles differing in solid particle properties, liquid layer thicknesses, and initial collision (impact) speeds is essential for obtaining a comprehensive understanding on the existing processes experiencing wet particle agglomeration or for a successful development of new processes with high chances of wet particle agglomeration. This study presents a generalized agglomeration model on the basis of energy conservation before and after collision when colliding wet particles may differ in solid particle properties, liquid layer thicknesses, and impact speeds. The model was established based on the approximate values of energy losses that may happen during the collision. It incorporates body forces, solid-solid contacting, liquid capillary, and viscous contributions, as well as the liquid bridge volume effect. Predictions of the new model for collision outcomes of identical wet particles were like those from an analytical energy balance model developed recently by the group for identical wet particles. We also validated the new model by experimental data from literature. The results of a collision direction analysis indicated that the direction often has a minimal effect on the collision outcome in many practical scenarios. The results of Monte Carlo uncertainty analyses with the new model revealed that proper estimations of impact speed, under capillary limiting conditions, and thickness of coating layers and asperity heights, under viscous limiting conditions, are critical for the realistic prediction of collision outcomes at impact speeds close to critical impact speed, i.e., the minimum particle speed required for the particles to rebound.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Droplet Evaporation on Hot Micro-Structured Superhydrophobic Surfaces: Analysis of Evaporation from Droplet Cap and Base Surfaces

In this study, evaporation of sessile water droplets on hot micro-structured superhydrophobic surfaces is experimentally and theoretically investigated. Water droplets of 4 µL are placed on micro-pillared silicon substrates with the substrate temperature heated up to 120°C. A comprehensive thermal circuit model is developed to analyze the effects of substrate roughness and substrate temperature on the sessile droplet evaporation. For the first time, two components of heat and mass transfer, i.e., one from the droplet cap surface and the other from the droplet base surface, during droplet evaporation are distinguished and systematically studied. As such, the evaporation heat transfer rates from both the droplet cap surface and the interstitial liquid-vapor interface between micropillars at the droplet base are calculated in various conditions. For droplet evaporation on the heated substrates in the range of 40°C – 80°C, the predicted droplet cap temperature matches well with the experimental results. Furthermore, during the constant contact radius mode of droplet evaporation, the decrease of evaporation rate from the droplet base contributes most to the continuously decreasing overall evaporation heat transfer rate, whereas the decrease of evaporation rate from the droplet cap surface is dominant in the constant contact angle mode. The influence of internal fluid flow is considered for droplet evaporation on substrates heated above 100°C, and an effective thermal conductivity is adopted as a correction factor to account for the effect of convection heat transfer inside the droplet. Temperature differences between the droplet base and the substrate base are estimated to be about 2°C, 5°C, 8°C, 13°C and 18°C for droplet evaporation on substrates heated at 40°C, 60°C, 80°C, 100°C, and 120°C, respectively, elucidating the delayed or depressed boiling of water droplets on a heated rough surface due to evaporative cooling.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Initial demonstration of automated fuel performance modeling with 1977 EBR-II metallic fuel pins using BISON code with FIPD and IMIS databases

Using the BISON fuel performance code, simulations were conducted using an automated process to read initial and operating conditions from the Fuels Irradiation and Physics Database (FIPD) and Integral Fast Reactor materials information system (IMIS) database, which contains metallic fuel data from the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II (EBR-II). This work demonstrates use of an integrated framework to access the vast majority of EBR-II experimental fuel pin data to support rapid development of fuel performance models for next-generation metallic fuel systems. With this capability, validation for fuel qualification can be performed rapidly. Between IMIS and FIPD, there is enough information to conduct 1977 unique EBR-II metallic fuel pin histories from 24 different experiments, at varying levels of detail between the two databases. Each of these histories includes a high-resolution power history, flux history, coolant channel flow rates, and coolant channel temperatures. Fission gas release (FGR), cumulative damage fraction (CDF), fuel axial swelling, cladding profilometry, and burnup were all simulated in BISON. The results were compared to post-irradiation examination (PIE) results for the initial demonstration of automated BISON modeling. BISON simulations conducted with IMIS and FIPD were in rough agreement with PIE measurements and calculations. Cladding profilometry, FGR, and fuel axial swelling were found to be in rough agreement with PIE measurements, depending on the physics used within the BISON input files. Here, the mechanical contact solver chosen was found to significantly impact axial fuel swelling and cladding strain predictions. CDF values were assessed to see whether pin failure may have been predicted (CDF ≥ 1). This work suggests that continued development of an automated tool for BISON should focus on inclusion of the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) experimental data for a larger database for metallic fuel, improved physical models to better capture fuel performance, such as fuel-cladding interactions, and a more detailed comparison with available PIE data to further the BISON model development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Catalytic Reduction of Esters over Zirconia-Supported Metal Catalysts

Esters are often produced as unwanted byproducts during the catalytic upgrading of ethanol to diesel fuel precursors through Guerbet coupling. Removal of esters from the product stream is important to prevent the loss of downstream catalyst activity from ester-derived carboxylic acids. In this work, we studied ester hydrogenolysis to the parent alcohols as a viable route for enhanced diesel fuel production. Specifically, we investigated the reduction of hexyl acetate in butanol over ZrO 2 -supported Ni, Co, Cu, Rh, Pd, and Pt catalysts, where Cu/ZrO 2 was the most selective catalyst for the hydrogenolysis of hexyl acetate into hexanol and ethanol. Thermodynamic analysis reveals that a 90% alcohol yield can be obtained at 200 °C, 30 bar, and a relatively high H 2 :hexyl acetate molar ratio of 480:1. Experimentally, an alcohol yield of 88% yield was obtained with a 10 wt % Cu/ZrO 2 catalyst at these conditions with a residence time of 5.4 h kg cat kmol gas –1 . Catalytic tests on the support revealed that ZrO 2 catalyzes the transesterification reaction between hexyl acetate and butanol. However, only the Cu sites can catalyze the hydrogenolysis of the esters into the final alcohols. We developed a kinetic model for our experimental results, which shows that the transesterification and hydrogenolysis reactions run at two different timescales, the former being 10 times faster than the latter. Data regression has been used to develop a model to predict the mole fraction distribution of ester hydrogenolysis products over a wide range of contact times. Cu/ZrO 2 loses half its catalytic activity after 80 h of time on stream. Modeling of deactivation data reveals that the ZrO 2 support conserves a residual activity due to external active sites, while active sites over the Cu surface deactivate at different rates. Furthermore, the catalytic conversion of esters into their parent alcohols is relevant to the production of surrogate liquid fuels since alcohols can be bimolecularly dehydrated to produce a blend of ethers with diesel fuel-like properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrative analysis of the 3D genome and epigenome in mouse embryonic tissues

While a rich set of putative cis-regulatory sequences involved in mouse fetal development have been annotated recently on the basis of chromatin accessibility and histone modification patterns, delineating their role in developmentally regulated gene expression continues to be challenging. To fill this gap, here we mapped chromatin contacts between gene promoters and distal sequences across the genome in seven mouse fetal tissues and across six developmental stages of the forebrain. We identified 248,620 long-range chromatin interactions centered at 14,138 protein-coding genes and characterized their tissue-to-tissue variations and developmental dynamics. Integrative analysis of the interactome with previous epigenome and transcriptome datasets from the same tissues revealed a strong correlation between the chromatin contacts and chromatin state at distal enhancers, as well as gene expression patterns at predicted target genes. We predicted target genes of 15,098 candidate enhancers and used them to annotate target genes of homologous candidate enhancers in the human genome that harbor risk variants of human diseases. We present evidence that schizophrenia and other adult disease risk variants are frequently found in fetal enhancers, providing support for the hypothesis of fetal origins of adult diseases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dependence of dark matter - electron scattering on the galactic dark matter velocity distribution

The rate of dark matter-electron scattering depends on the underlying velocity distribution of the dark matter halo. Importantly, dark matter-electron scattering is particularly sensitive to the high-velocity tail, which differs significantly amongst the various dark matter halo models. In this work, we summarize the leading halo models and discuss the various parameters which enter them. We recommend updated values for these parameters based on recent studies and measurements. Furthermore, we quantify the dependence of the dark matter-electron scattering rate on the choice of halo model and parameters, and demonstrate how these choices propagate to the predicted cross-section limits. The rate is most sensitive to changes in the circular velocity v 0 ; in silicon targets, we find that the changes in the rate predictions can range from Script $\mathcal{O}$(0.01%) to Script $\mathcal{O}$(100%) for contact interactions and Script $\mathcal{O}$(10%) to Script $\mathcal{O}$(100%) for long-range interactions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mechanisms influencing and prediction of tool influence function spots during hemispherical sub-aperture tool polishing on fused silica

Sub-aperture tool polishing of precision optics requires a detailed understanding of the local material removal [tool influence function (TIF)] at the contact spot between the workpiece and tool to achieve high removal determinism and hence precision of the optic relative to the desired/design surface figure. In this study, the mechanisms influencing and the quantitative prediction of the removal rate and shape of TIF spots during polishing of fused silica glass with cerium oxide slurry using a rotating hemispherical pad-foam tool for a wide variety of process conditions (including tool properties, kinematics, and applied displacements) are investigated. The TIF volumetric removal rate can be estimated utilizing the average relative velocity and contact area using a simple analytical model. In addition, stability of the volumetric removal rate for fixed process conditions is shown to be greatly dependent on the pad preparation and amount of tool use (affecting both pad topography and slurry buildup), whose general behavior shows an increase in removal rate followed by stabilization with polishing time. The determination of the TIF removal shape is more complex. An extended version of the Preston removal model is developed to explain a comprehensive set of measured TIF removal shapes to within ∼ <#comment/> 22 % <#comment/> . This model incorporates a number of phenomena impacting the TIF removal shape including: (a) temporal and spatial dependent relative velocity between the workpiece and tool; (b) an elastic mechanics based, as well as hydrodynamic, pressure distribution; (c) a spatially dependent friction coefficient possibly caused by both reduced slurry replenishment in low velocity regions and pad slurry islands (100 µm scale) and porosity (millimeter scale); and (d) a shear-based removal mechanism on the periphery of the contact spot.

Suratwala, T. (ORCID:0000000190861039)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for excited $τ$-leptons and leptoquarks in the final state with $τ$-leptons and jets in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is reported for excited $τ$-leptons and leptoquarks in events with two hadronically decaying $τ$-leptons and two or more jets. The search uses proton-proton ($pp$) collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS experiment during the Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider in 2015–2018. The total integrated luminosity is 139 fb -1 . The excited $τ$-lepton is assumed to be produced and to decay via a four-fermion contact interaction into an ordinary $τ$-lepton and a quark-antiquark pair. The leptoquarks are assumed to be produced in pairs via the strong interaction, and each leptoquark is assumed to couple to a charm or lighter quark and a $τ$-lepton. No excess over the background prediction is observed. Excited $τ$-leptons with masses below 2.8 TeV are excluded at 95% CL in scenarios with the contact interaction scale Λ set to 10 TeV. At the extreme limit of model validity where Λ is set equal to the excited $τ$-lepton mass, excited $τ$-leptons with masses below 4.6 TeV are excluded. Leptoquarks with masses below 1.3 TeV are excluded at 95% CL if their branching ratio to a charm quark and a $τ$-lepton equals 1. The analysis does not exploit flavour-tagging in the signal region.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atomistic insights into the heat conductance across the interfaces between erythritol and different metals: A non-equilibrium molecular dynamics study

The heat conductance across the interface between a phase change material (PCM) and the metal shell is important for thermal design of latent heat storage systems. Non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations were carried out in this work to unravel, at the atomistic level, the interfacial heat conductance mechanisms between erythritol (the most promising medium-temperature polyol PCM) and two different metals (i.e., copper and aluminum). The interfacial contact ratio was introduced as a parameter to represent different contact conditions at the interfaces, for example, different surface roughness levels of the metals. It was found that with the increase of interfacial contact ratio, the temperature difference between the erythritol/metal interfaces decreases, whereas the interfacial heat transfer coefficient increases gradually. At the perfect contact condition, i.e., the interfacial contact ratio reaches 100%, the interfacial heat transfer coefficients across the erythritol/Cu and erythritol/Al interfaces were predicted to be 398 ± 26 MW/m 2 K and 544 ± 11 MW/m 2 K, respectively. The interfacial heat conductance of erythritol/Al is better than that of erythritol/Cu. The mismatch of atomic spectral density across the interfaces between erythritol and the two metals was analyzed and distinguished. These results could guide the selection of packaging materials and the thermal design of erythritol-based latent heat storage systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the Fidelity of Computational Models for the Flow of Milled Loblolly Pine: A Benchmark Study on Continuum-Mechanics Models and Discrete-Particle Models

The upstream of bioenergy industry has suffered from unreliable operations of granular biomass feedstocks in handling equipment. Computational modeling, including continuum-mechanics models and discrete-particle models, offers insightful understandings and predictive capabilities on the flow of milled biomass and can assist equipment design and optimization. This paper presents a benchmark study on the fidelity of the continuum and discrete modeling approaches for predicting granular biomass flow. We first introduce the constitutive law of the continuum-mechanics model and the contact law of the coarse-grained discrete-particle model, with model parameters calibrated against laboratory characterization tests of the milled loblolly pine. Three classical granular material flow systems (i.e., a lab-scale rotating drum, a pilot-scale hopper, and a full-scale inclined plane) are then simulated using the two models with the same initial and boundary conditions as the physical experiments. The close agreement of the numerical predictions with the experimental measurements on the hopper mass flow rate, the hopper critical outlet width, the material stopping thickness on the inclined plane, and the dynamic angle of repose, clearly indicates that the two methods can capture the critical flow behavior of granular biomass. The qualitative comparison shows that the continuum-mechanics model outperforms in parameterization of materials and wall friction, and large-scale systems, while the discrete-particle model is more preferred for discontinuous flow systems at smaller scales. Industry stakeholders can use these findings as guidance for choosing appropriate numerical tools to model biomass material flow in part of the optimization of material handling equipment in biorefineries.

Jin, Wencheng↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Bayesian Multi-fidelity Neural Network to Predict Nonlinear Frequency Backbone Curves

The use of structural mechanics models during the design process often leads to the development of models of varying fidelity. Often low-fidelity models are efficient to simulate but lack accuracy, while the high-fidelity counterparts are accurate with less efficiency. Here, this paper presents a multi-fidelity surrogate modeling approach that combines the accuracy of a high-fidelity finite element model with the efficiency of a low-fidelity model to train an even faster surrogate model that parameterizes the design space of interest. The objective of these models is to predict the nonlinear frequency backbone curves of the Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge benchmark structure which exhibits simultaneous nonlinearities from frictional contact and geometric nonlinearity. The surrogate model consists of an ensemble of neural networks that learn the mapping between low and high-fidelity data through nonlinear transformations. Bayesian neural networks are used to assess the surrogate model's uncertainty. Once trained, the multi-fidelity neural network is used to perform sensitivity analysis to assess the influence of the design parameters on the predicted backbone curves. Additionally, Bayesian calibration is performed to update the input parameter distributions to correlate the model parameters to the collection of experimentally measured backbone curves.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Attention Network Forecasts Time-to-Failure in Laboratory Shear Experiments

Rocks under stress deform by creep mechanisms that include formation and slip on small-scale internal cracks. Intragranular cracks and slip along grain contacts release energy as elastic waves termed acoustic emissions (AE). AEs are thought to contain predictive information that can be used for fault failure forecasting. Here, we present a method using unsupervised classification and an attention network to forecast labquakes using AE waveform features. Our data were generated in a laboratory setting using a biaxial shearing device with granular fault gouge intended to mimic the conditions of tectonic faults. Here, we analyzed the temporal evolution of AEs generated throughout several hundred laboratory earthquake cycles. We used a Conscience Self-Organizing Map (CSOM) to perform topologically ordered vector quantization based on waveform properties. The resulting map was used to interactively cluster AEs. We examined the clusters over time to identify those with predictive ability. Finally, we used a variety of LSTM and attention-based networks to test the predictive power of the AE clusters. By tracking cumulative waveform features over the seismic cycle, the network is able to forecast the time-to-failure (TTF) of lab earthquakes. Our results show that analyzing the data to isolate predictive signals and using a more sophisticated network architecture are key to robustly forecasting labquakes. In the future, this method could be applied on tectonic faults to monitor earthquakes and augment early warning systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗