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DOE OSTI2026

SRF cavity instability detection with machine learning at CEBAF

During the operation of the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF), one or more unstable superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities often cause beam loss trips while the unstable cavities themselves do not necessarily trip off. The present RF controls for the legacy cavities report at only 1 Hz, which is too slow to detectfast transient instabilities during these trip events. These challenges make the identification of an unstable cavity out of the hundreds installed at CEBAF a difficult and time-consuming task. To tackle these issues, a fast data acquisition system (DAQ) for the legacy SRF cavities has been developed, which records the sample at 5 kHz. An unsupervised learning framework has been developed to identify anomalous SRF cavity behavior. We will discuss the present status of the DAQ system and our framework, along with recent successes in detecting anomalous cavity behavior. Overall, our method offers a practical solution for identifying unstable SRF cavities, contributing to increased beam availability and machine reliability.

Accelerator Physics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Out-of-Distribution Generalization for Learning Quantum Channels with Low-Energy Coherent States

When experimentally learning the action of a continuous-variable quantum process by probing it with inputs, there will often be some restriction on the input states used. One experimentally simple way to probe a quantum channel is to use low-energy coherent states. Learning a quantum channel in this way presents difficulties, due to the fact that two channels may act similarly on low-energy inputs but very differently for high-energy inputs. They may also act similarly on coherent-state inputs but differently on nonclassical inputs. Extrapolating the behavior of a channel for more general input states from its action on the far more limited set of low-energy coherent states is a case of out-of-distribution generalization. To be sure that such generalization gives meaningful results, one needs to relate error bounds for the training set to bounds that are valid for all inputs. We show that for any pair of channels that act sufficiently similarly on low-energy coherent-state inputs, one can bound how different the input-output relations are for any (high-energy or highly nonclassical) input. This proves that out-of-distribution generalization is always possible for learning quantum channels using low-energy coherent states, as long as enough samples are used.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

SRF cavity instability detection with machine learning at CEBAF

Accelerator Physics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking the performance of uncertainty quantification methods for neural network-based interatomic potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (ML-IAPs) continue to gain popularity as accurate, computationally efficient replacements for traditional, physics-based interatomic potentials and expensive ab initio methods. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML-IAPs is a growing area of research as UQ is critical in many applications of IAPs, such as developing curated datasets, active learning-based data augmentation, self-improving models, and estimating the uncertainty of molecular dynamics simulations. In this paper, we construct and benchmark a series of different neural network potentials (NNPs) with varying network architectures to determine the performance of these models with respect to both the mean and uncertainty calibration error. Each NNP method is specifically designed to predict either epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty with particular focus on the differences in behavior between the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty estimates. We benchmark these methods using multiple datasets common in the ML-IAP literature. The results show that the aleatoric uncertainty from single-shot model architectures is a competitive alternative to ensemble-based epistemic uncertainty predictions in regions of sufficient data-density. However, in regions where the representative data is sparse, aleatoric uncertainty models tend to overpredict and epistemic methods tend to underpredict the actual model error. We conclude that the type of UQ is crucial when discussing performance of probabilistic model results as different methods have different performance characteristics depending on the regime in which they are evaluated. Therefore, the type of UQ method should be carefully evaluated against both the data characteristics and requirements for the intended application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Localization in Energy Materials (Final Project Report)

The last year of this award we have continued our research on using quantum machine learning to identify phase transitions. By combining quantum machine learning with quantum computing, we extended a hybrid classical-quantum algorithm to capture the metal-insulator quantum phase transition of the Hubbard model. We have also continued our studies of non-equilibrium dynamics of interacting disordered systems. In particular, we studied the non-equilibrium transient dynamics of a system described by the Anderson-Hubbard model following an interaction and disorder quench, and the effect of disorder on the out-of-time-order correlator on the Hubbard model.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS2022

Environmental Testing of the OVEN System for Lunar Water Extraction and Prospecting

Introduction: The presence of water ice in permanently shadowed regions on the lunar surface [1] may enable a sustained human presence on the Moon with minimal need for consumables. However, in order to develop a long term utilization plan that includes the usage of in-situ water we must first understand the abundance, stratigraphy and distribution of this re-source. Multiple space agencies currently have plans for lunar water prospecting missions. The Optimized Volatile Extraction Node (OVEN) was designed for water prospecting missions that require samples to be weighed, sealed, and heated as the means of determining water concentration. This method of water quantification necessitates a fair amount of automation, so a rigorous environmental test program was performed in order to build confidence in the performance of the OVEN design. The work presented here describes the OVEN environmental test program as well as ongoing efforts to improve on the design. Vibration: The OVEN participated in two rounds of random vibration tests. The first test was a stand-alone test performed at the Energy Systems Test Area of the Johnson Space Center. The second test was an integrated test with the mobile platform developed for the Resource Prospector project. The OVEN survived both tests without damage, but the tests did provide valuable lessons learned with regards to specific operations. Thermal Vacuum: The OVEN was successfully demonstrated at a temperature range of -50 to 75 C in a thermal vacuum chamber. The need to heat motor gearboxes at lower temperatures was predetermined so this test program was completed by implementing a method of gearbox heating that used the existing circuitry within the motors. Dust: A custom dynamometer was built in order to determine the torque required to move the various mechanisms within the OVEN at a range of temperatures. The OVEN system was coated with lunar dust simulant in order to determine mechanism torques under a worst-case operating condition. Sublimation: Sublimation losses within the OVEN were quantified through a series of test configurations, including an integrated test in a thermal vacuum chamber at Glenn Research Center [2]. Current Work: The OVEN subsystem is currently not a component of any existing prospecting missions, but work continues that will take the lessons learned from previous environmental tests and improve on the design in order to be considered for future prospecting opportunities. References: [1] Colaprete, A., Schultz, P., Heldmann, J., Wooden, D., Shirley, M., Ennico, K., ... & Sollitt, L. (2010). Detection of water in the LCROSS ejecta plume. science, 330(6003), 463-468. [2] Kleinhenz, J., Smith, J., Roush, T., Colaprete, A., Zacny, K., Paulsen, G., ... & Paz, A. (2018). Volatiles Loss from water bearing regolith simulant at Lunar Environments. In Earth and Space 2018: Engineering for Extreme Environments (pp. 454-466). Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers.

A Paz↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development and assessment of hierarchical multi-reward reinforcement learning based potential for silicene with state-of-the-art models

We develop a new interatomic force field for Silicene, a 2D material with a buckled hexagonal lattice structure with high polymorphism. We introduce new parameterizations of a Tersoff model using a hierarchical multi-reward reinforcement learning (RL) methodology coupled with a continuous Monte Carlo Tree Search optimization. Our model significantly outperforms existing methods by enhancing the accuracy of predictions for the structural and thermodynamic properties of seven silicene polymorphs-including structure, energy, equation of state, elasticity, and phonon dispersion-when compared to established models. We further make a comprehensive comparison of the various models in predicting the mechanical and thermal properties of silicene. We trace the origin of the improved performance to the description of the angular dependence in the bond-order term, suggesting that modifying the angular terms in short-range models is essential to capture the structural diversity in low dimensional systems.

2D materials↗

DOE OSTI2024

Blueprints for Training Information Bottlenecks for Collider Analyses

Dimensionality reduction is a crucial aspect of data analysis in high energy physics, even if accompanied by information loss. Several methods, including histogram- and kernel-based analyses, are only computationally feasible for low-dimensional data. Furthermore, simulation models used in HEP can often only be validated for low-dimensional data. We provide several blueprints for using machine learning to create low-dimensional data representations (continuous event variables and discrete classification labels) for use in signal discovery and parameter estimation tasks. We also describe how to design the learned representation to facilitate a) searches with unknown model parameters and b) validation of simulation models in data control regions.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Power generation forecasting for solar plants based on Dynamic Bayesian networks by fusing multi-source information

A Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for solar power generation forecasting in solar plants is proposed in this paper. The key idea is to fuse sensor data, operational indicators, meteorological data, lagged output power information, and model errors for more accurate short-term (e.g., hours) and mid-term (e.g., days to weeks) power generation forecasting. The proposed DBN augments automated data-driven structure learning with expert knowledge encoding using continuous and categorical data given constraints to represent causal relationships within a solar inverter system. Additionally, an error compensation mechanism is proposed to capture temporal fluctuation. The effectiveness of the DBN on solar power generation forecasting was evaluated by rolling window analysis with one-year testing data collected from a local solar plant. The proposed DBN is compared with four state-of-art methods including support-vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The result show that the proposed DBN achieves better accuracy in general, and it is not as data-hungry as some neural network-based models. The proposed DBN is also shown to have robust and consistent forecasting power with different forecasting horizons. The accuracy is 92% - 95% from one hour to one week ahead forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Distributed Acoustic Sensing to Estimate the Permeability

Optical fiber in a borehole can be interrogated with distributed acoustic sensors (DAS) to capture fracture displacements with the potential to map surrounding fracture networks. We designed a laboratory experiment to test the capability of DAS to determine borehole flow characteristics, and we show that for the first time DAS can be used to remotely estimate permeability. Optical fiber was wrapped around a bead filled pipe and the pressure drop and flow velocity were measured to directly calculate permeability. A machine learning model using statistical features from continuous DAS estimated the bulk permeability. Fluid interactions with the permeable material demonstrate insufficient resolution using DAS amplitude-based measurements for estimating pressure drop to infer permeability. Variations in the spectral domain relate DAS measurements to the pressure drop and provide consistent permeability estimates. Resolution with DAS is sufficient to estimate permeability and provides a reliable method to monitor at depth in borehole conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Joint Modeling of Quasar Variability and Accretion Disk Reprocessing Using Latent Stochastic Differential Equations

Quasars are bright active galactic nuclei powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the center of galaxies. Their stochastic brightness variability depends on the physical properties of the accretion disk and black hole. The upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is expected to observe tens of millions of quasars, so there is a need for efficient techniques like machine learning that can handle the large volume of data. Quasar variability is believed to be driven by an X-ray corona, which is reprocessed by the accretion disk and emitted as UV/optical variability. We are the first to introduce an auto-differentiable simulation of the accretion disk and reprocessing. We use the simulation as a direct component of our neural network to jointly model the driving variability and reprocessing, trained with supervised learning on simulated LSST-like 10 yr quasar light curves. We encode the light curves using a transformer encoder, and the driving variability is reconstructed using latent stochastic differential equations, a physically motivated generative deep learning method that can model continuous-time stochastic dynamics. By embedding the physical processes of the driving signal and reprocessing into our network, we achieve a model that is more robust and interpretable. We demonstrate that our model outperforms a Gaussian process regression baseline and can infer accretion disk parameters and time delays between wave bands, even for out-of-distribution driving signals. Our approach provides a powerful framework that can be adapted to solve other inverse problems in multivariate time series.

Fagin, Joshua [City Univ. of New York (CUNY), NY (↗

NASA NTRS2014

Neural Network Machine Learning and Dimension Reduction for Data Visualization

Neural network machine learning in computer science is a continuously developing field of study. Although neural network models have been developed which can accurately predict a numeric value or nominal classification, a general purpose method for constructing neural network architecture has yet to be developed. Computer scientists are often forced to rely on a trial-and-error process of developing and improving accurate neural network models. In many cases, models are constructed from a large number of input parameters. Understanding which input parameters have the greatest impact on the prediction of the model is often difficult to surmise, especially when the number of input variables is very high. This challenge is often labeled the "curse of dimensionality" in scientific fields. However, techniques exist for reducing the dimensionality of problems to just two dimensions. Once a problem's dimensions have been mapped to two dimensions, it can be easily plotted and understood by humans. The ability to visualize a multi-dimensional dataset can provide a means of identifying which input variables have the highest effect on determining a nominal or numeric output. Identifying these variables can provide a better means of training neural network models; models can be more easily and quickly trained using only input variables which appear to affect the outcome variable. The purpose of this project is to explore varying means of training neural networks and to utilize dimensional reduction for visualizing and understanding complex datasets.

Liles, Charles A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Distributed System Design Checklist

This report describes a design checklist targeted to fault-tolerant distributed electronic systems. Many of the questions and discussions in this checklist may be generally applicable to the development of any safety-critical system. However, the primary focus of this report covers the issues relating to distributed electronic system design. The questions that comprise this design checklist were created with the intent to stimulate system designers' thought processes in a way that hopefully helps them to establish a broader perspective from which they can assess the system's dependability and fault-tolerance mechanisms. While best effort was expended to make this checklist as comprehensive as possible, it is not (and cannot be) complete. Instead, we expect that this list of questions and the associated rationale for the questions will continue to evolve as lessons are learned and further knowledge is established. In this regard, it is our intent to post the questions of this checklist on a suitable public web-forum, such as the NASA DASHLink AFCS repository. From there, we hope that it can be updated, extended, and maintained after our initial research has been completed.

Hall, Brendan↗

NASA NTRS2014

Evolution of Software-Only-Simulation at NASA IV and V

Software-Only-Simulations have been an emerging but quickly developing field of study throughout NASA. The NASA Independent Verification Validation (IVV) Independent Test Capability (ITC) team has been rapidly building a collection of simulators for a wide range of NASA missions. ITC specializes in full end-to-end simulations that enable developers, VV personnel, and operators to test-as-you-fly. In four years, the team has delivered a wide variety of spacecraft simulations that have ranged from low complexity science missions such as the Global Precipitation Management (GPM) satellite and the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), to the extremely complex missions such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and Space Launch System (SLS).This paper describes the evolution of ITCs technologies and processes that have been utilized to design, implement, and deploy end-to-end simulation environments for various NASA missions. A comparison of mission simulators are discussed with focus on technology and lessons learned in complexity, hardware modeling, and continuous integration. The paper also describes the methods for executing the missions unmodified flight software binaries (not cross-compiled) for verification and validation activities.

Embedded↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Support for Commercial Crew Launch Capabilities

Since the earliest days of U.S. human spaceflight, NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, has played a key role in American crew launch capability, from engineering support for the first Mercury-Redstone launches, to the Saturn launches to the Moon, through Shuttle and now Artemis. Today, Marshall brings that expertise gained through decades of crewed space launches to NASA’s Commercial Crew Program (CCP), providing launch vehicle engineering and programmatic support. The team’s responsibilities have included human certification of commercial launch systems for the CCP missions, including Atlas V and Falcon 9, and verifying each launch vehicle complies with flight certification. MSFC provides expertise in nearly all aspects of launch vehicle design and performance including solid motors and liquid engines, stage propulsion, thrust vector control, structural and dynamics, safety and mission assurance. During each commercial crew launch, an engineering support team is on console at Marshall’s Huntsville Operations Support Center, which has provided launch operations support since Apollo, providing real-time oversight to safety standards for the vehicle and verifying data. Launch vehicle support for Commercial Crew has come as a paradigm shift for the MSFC team, inspiring new approaches that leverage expertise and best practices from past NASA-developed launch vehicle missions, while at the same time providing new synergies from work with commercial partners on CCP. This paper will explore the role that the Marshall launch vehicle services team plays in the Commercial Crew Program, as well as lessons learned from the program that will continue to benefit a new era of spaceflight partnerships.

Commercial Crew↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Continuous Variable Quantum Compiler

We implement a continuous-variable quantum compiler that can learn a linear phase operation with a fourfold increase in precision and a factor of 80 reduction in time to solution when quantum resources are used.

Feldman, Matthew↗

DOE OSTI2026

First Estimation of Model Parameters for Neutrino-Induced Nucleon Knockout Using Simulation-Based Inference

To enable an accurate determination of oscillation parameters, accelerator-based neutrino experiments require detailed simulations of nuclear interaction physics in the GeV regime. While substantial effort from both theory and experiment is currently being invested to improve the fidelity of these simulations, their present deficiencies typically oblige experimental collaborations to resort to empirical tuning of simulation model parameters. As the precision requirements of the field continue to become more stringent, machine learning techniques may provide a powerful means of handling corresponding growth in the complexity of future neutrino interaction model tuning exercises. To study the suitability of simulation-based inference (SBI) for this physics application, in this paper we revisit a tuned configuration of the GENIE neutrino event generator that was originally developed by the MicroBooNE collaboration. Despite closely reproducing the adopted values of four physics parameters when confronted with the tuned cross-section predictions as input, we find that our trained SBI algorithm prefers modestly different values (within MicroBooNE's assigned uncertainties) and achieves slightly better goodness-of-fit when inference is run on the experimental data set originally used by MicroBooNE. We also find that our trained algorithm can create a fair approximation of an alternative neutrino scattering simulation, NuWro, that shares only a subset of its physics model parameters with GENIE.

Tame-Narvaez, Karla [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000022249↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine-learning-based estimates of global natural vegetated wetland methane emissions (2000–2025)

Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), yet comprehensive global budgets are typically delayed by years, preventing a timely understanding of CH 4 sources, sinks, and trends. To reduce this delay, we present a model emulator-driven framework and accompanying workflow that enable timely, continuous emission updates using a machine-learning emulator to reconstruct spatially explicit monthly emission fields at 1° × 1° resolution. We apply this framework to a global dataset of natural vegetated wetland CH 4 emissions to extend the most recent Global Methane Budget (GMB; Saunois et al., 2025) record that covers the 2000–2020 emissions through 2025. In the test data (∼ 30 % of the total dataset), the emulator achieved a global R 2 of 0.65 ± 0.003 (mean ± 95 % CI, hereafter) and an RMSE of 5.49 ± 0.12×10 -3 Tg CH 4 yr −1 . The emulator is trained on 35 GMB model estimates, including 22 process-based models and 13 atmospheric inversions, paired with 10 ensemble realizations of 11 gridded climate predictor variables from atmospheric reanalyses. Our results show that the global mean predicted wetland CH 4 emissions for 2021–2025 (157.8 ± 2.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) are not significantly higher (∼ 0.05 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) than the 2000–2020 baseline. However, this stability masks a significant hemispheric redistribution of emissions. We detect an increase in Northern Hemisphere (NH) emissions in 2021–2025, with mid- and high-latitudes increasing by 0.76 ± 0.07 and 0.35 ± 0.03 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively, while the tropics and Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics show offsetting negative trends (−0.95 ± 0.19 and -0.11 ± 0.02 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively). The predicted emissions are able to capture the low emissions in 2023 in South America linked to El Niño-related drought, as reported by recent studies (Ciais et al., 2026; Quinn et al., 2025). Furthermore, we identify a distinct seasonal amplification of global emission trends that peaks in late boreal summer. This new modeled dataset and operational framework bridge the gap between the latest updated budgets and low-latency monitoring, providing a scalable capacity to frequently update global emission estimates and critical early warnings of regional wetland feedback loops. The data are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18870108 (Li et al., 2026).

Li, Mengze [National University of Singapore (Sing↗