Parametric Cost Model for Ground and Space Telescopes
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Space Telescope Cost Model, Parametric Cost Model↗
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The Global Solar Photovoltaic Supply Chain and Bottom-Up Cost Model Results
This presentation begins with an introduction to NREL and our Solar and Storage technoeconomic analysis portfolio. Then, we review our bottom-up cost modeling methodology and most recent results across the solar PV module supply chain.
ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
Improving the Representation of Hydropower in Production Cost Models
This report is a joint piece by PNNL and NREL describing two similar projects and complementary approaches to improving the representation of hydropower in production cost models.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model CO2_S_COM 2024 (v4)
The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM), in collaboration with the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), has developed the FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM). This Excel-based tool provides a comprehensive framework for estimating the costs and breakeven prices associated with storing carbon dioxide (CO2) in deep saline formations. Designed from the perspective of a CO2 storage site owner, the CO2_S_COM incorporates four integrated modules—project management, financial analysis, activity cost estimation, and geological evaluation—to deliver fast, robust and actionable insights for screening project finances.
CO2 storage↗
PV O&M Cost Model [SWR-21-14]
This tool presents a method for calculating costs associated with the operation and maintenance (O&M) of photovoltaic (PV) systems. The tool compiles details regarding the cost and frequency of multiple O&M services to estimate annual O&M costs ($/year) for each year of an analysis period, the net present value ($) of life cycle costs accumulated over the analysis period, and the reserve account amount ($) that might be required to fund unexpected repairs. The reserve account includes parts inventory and is important for providing a source of funds to make repairs quickly and avoid lost production. This method allows a detailed selection of services to perform based on system size, market served (e.g., residential, commercial, or utility), type and configuration of system components (e.g., micro-, string, or central inverter), and site and environmental conditions (e.g., pollen, bird populations) which is an improvement over simple per unit valuations of O&M costs ($/kW/year). This model also distinguishes costs that vary from year to year and increase at different rates over time as modeled by heuristic failure distributions (e.g., Weibull or Lognormal distribution) based on actuarial data for many of the services.
Walker, Andy↗
Updated Oregon Floating Offshore Wind Cost Modeling [Slides]
The study provides heat maps showing updated estimates of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for floating offshore wind energy off the coast of Oregon. This project builds on a 2019 National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) floating offshore wind power cost study in Oregon (Musial et al. 2019) and a recent NREL California cost analysis (Beiter et al. 2020). Floating wind power cost data, modeling methodology, and resource data are updated and LCOE is estimated through 2032 using 2019 as a reference year. Comparisons are made to the previous offshore wind energy cost studies (Musial et al. 2019; Beiter et al. 2020). The study does not prioritize specific sites or make judgments about marine spatial planning viability.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Greening the Grid: Advances in Production Cost Modeling for India Renewable Energy Grid Integration Study
The Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid study uses advanced weather and power system modeling to explore the operational impacts of meeting India's 2022 renewable energy targets and identify actions that may be favorable for integrating high levels of renewable energy into the Indian grid. The study relies primarily on a production cost model that simulates optimal scheduling and dispatch of available generation in a future year (2022) by minimizing total production costs subject to physical, operational, and market constraints. This fact sheet provides a detailed look at each of these models, including their common assumptions and the insights provided by each.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Automation life-cycle cost model
The problem domain being addressed by this contractual effort can be summarized by the following list: Automation and Robotics (A&R) technologies appear to be viable alternatives to current, manual operations; Life-cycle cost models are typically judged with suspicion due to implicit assumptions and little associated documentation; and Uncertainty is a reality for increasingly complex problems and few models explicitly account for its affect on the solution space. The objectives for this effort range from the near-term (1-2 years) to far-term (3-5 years). In the near-term, the envisioned capabilities of the modeling tool are annotated. In addition, a framework is defined and developed in the Decision Modelling System (DEMOS) environment. Our approach is summarized as follows: Assess desirable capabilities (structure into near- and far-term); Identify useful existing models/data; Identify parameters for utility analysis; Define tool framework; Encode scenario thread for model validation; and Provide transition path for tool development. This report contains all relevant, technical progress made on this contractual effort.
Gathmann, Thomas P.↗
Designers' unified cost model
The Structures Technology Program Office (STPO) at NASA LaRC has initiated development of a conceptual and preliminary designers' cost prediction model. The model will provide a technically sound method for evaluating the relative cost of different composite structural designs, fabrication processes, and assembly methods that can be compared to equivalent metallic parts or assemblies. The feasibility of developing cost prediction software in a modular form for interfacing with state-of-the-art preliminary design tools and computer aided design programs is being evaluated. The goal of this task is to establish theoretical cost functions that relate geometric design features to summed material cost and labor content in terms of process mechanics and physics. The output of the designers' present analytical tools will be input for the designers' cost prediction model to provide the designer with a database and deterministic cost methodology that allows one to trade and synthesize designs with both cost and weight as objective functions for optimization. This paper presents the team members, approach, goals, plans, and progress to date for development of COSTADE (Cost Optimization Software for Transport Aircraft Design Evaluation).
Freeman, W.↗
On the Inclusion of Energy-Shifting Demand Response in Production Cost Models: Methodology and a Case Study
In the context of future power system requirements for additional flexibility, demand response (DR) is an attractive potential resource. Its proponents widely laud its prospective benefits, which include enabling higher penetrations of variable renewable generation at lower cost than alternative storage technologies, and improving economic efficiency. In practice, DR from the commercial and residential sectors is largely an emerging, not a mature, resource, and its actual costs and benefits need to be studied to determine promising combinations of physical DR resource, enabling controls and communications, power system characteristics, regulatory environments, market structures, and business models. The work described in this report focuses on the enablement of such analysis from the production cost modeling perspective. In particular, we contribute a bottom-up methodology for modeling load-shifting DR in production cost models. The resulting model is sufficiently detailed to reflect the physical characteristics and constraints of the underlying flexible load, and includes the possibility of capturing diurnal and seasonal variations in the resource. Nonetheless, the model is of low complexity and thus suitable for inclusion in conventional unit commitment and market clearing algorithms. The ability to simulate DR as an operational resource on a power system over a year facilitates an assessment of its time-varying value to the power system.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Life Cycle Cost Modeling of High-speed Commercial Aircraft - Final Report
SpaceWorks has concluded a 9-month research and development project aimed at addressing key questions in NASA’s effort to anticipate, understand, and ultimately support the emerging high-speed commercial flight market. The current project is a continuation of the Life Cycle Cost Modeling of High-Speed Commercial Aircraft1 , which is a follow-on to a 2021 study led by Deloitte and SpaceWorks entitled Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study2 . Based in part on the recommendations of these prior studies, the objectives of this current effort were to expand the trade space to include Mach 1.5 aircraft and conduct additional trade studies. These included utilizing tech stops to extend serviceable range between city pairs, mixed aircraft fleets based on market size, flight scheduling to maximize value of the travel opportunity, and scenarios with multiple service operators. Additionally, SpaceWorks conducted new market surveys and research to update air passengers’ willingness-to-pay for highspeed flights given the changes in macroeconomic conditions since the start of the Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study with Deloitte. Ultimately, the new data and capability to evaluate all the trade studies were implemented in a new simulation environment called MIDAS (Multi-market Integrated Dynamic Aerospace Simulation). This sophisticated tool, implemented using AnyLogic software, utilizes agent-based and discrete event simulation (DES) techniques to provide highly detailed analysis and assessment of the high-speed aircraft market problem.
high-speed↗
Simulation Planning Using Component Based Cost Model
Successful simulations for scientific discovery on high-performance computing platforms require careful planning, including verification of specific application configuration and runtime parameters, estimation of resource requirements, and steering and monitoring of the simulation. However, simulation planning is an aspect of scientific computing that is extremely sparse in available literature or training. In this paper we focus on the resource management aspect of such planning through formulation of a component-based cost model. We illustrate the methodology and formulation through FLASH, a highly configurable simulation code used in multiple scientific domains.
Dubey, Anshu↗
Proposed reliability cost model
The research investigations which were involved in the study include: cost analysis/allocation, reliability and product assurance, forecasting methodology, systems analysis, and model-building. This is a classic example of an interdisciplinary problem, since the model-building requirements include the need for understanding and communication between technical disciplines on one hand, and the financial/accounting skill categories on the other. The systems approach is utilized within this context to establish a clearer and more objective relationship between reliability assurance and the subcategories (or subelements) that provide, or reenforce, the reliability assurance for a system. Subcategories are further subdivided as illustrated by a tree diagram. The reliability assurance elements can be seen to be potential alternative strategies, or approaches, depending on the specific goals/objectives of the trade studies. The scope was limited to the establishment of a proposed reliability cost-model format. The model format/approach is dependent upon the use of a series of subsystem-oriented CER's and sometimes possible CTR's, in devising a suitable cost-effective policy.
Delionback, L. M.↗
Framework for Unified Systems Engineering and Design of Wind Plants (FUSED-Wind) cost models and case analyzer [SWR-14-25]
Framework for Unified Systems Engineering and Design of Wind Plants ( FUSED-Wind) is an open-source framework for multi-disciplinary optimisation and analysis (MDAO) of wind energy systems, developed jointly by DTU and NREL. The framework is designed as an extension to the NASA developed OpenMDAO, and defines key I/O elements and methods necessary for wiring together different simulation codes in order to achieve a system level analysis capability of wind turbine plants with multiple levels of fidelity. NREL and DTU have developed independent interfaces to their respective simulation codes and cost models (e.g. FAST/CCBlade, HAWC2/BECAS) with the aim of offering an environment where these codes can be used interchangeably. The open source nature of the framework enables third parties to develop interfaces to their own tools, either replacing or extending those offered by DTU and NREL.
Dykes, Katherine↗
NASA's X-Plane Database and Parametric Cost Model v 2.0
The NASA Armstrong Cost Engineering Team with technical assistance from NASA HQ (SID)has gone through the full process in developing new CERs from Version #1 to Version #2 CERs. We took a step backward and reexamined all of the data collected, such as dependent and independent variables, cost, dry weight, length, wingspan, manned versus unmanned, altitude, Mach number, thrust, and skin. We used a well- known statistical analysis tool called CO$TAT instead of using "R" multiple linear or the "Regression" tool found in Microsoft Excel(TradeMark). We setup an "array of data" by adding 21" dummy variables;" we analyzed the standard error (SE) and then determined the "best fit." We have parametrically priced-out several future X-planes and compared our results to those of other resources. More work needs to be done in getting "accurate and traceable cost data" from historical X-plane records!
life cycle cost↗
Follow-Up from the Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (PVRW): Cost Modeling Capabilities to Evaluate Trends in PV Technologies
NREL's Solar and Storage Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) team reviews live polling results from the Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (PVRW) related to module technology trends believed to have the greatest reliability impacts. Then, the team reviews the publicly available tools and inputs necessary for evaluating reliability tradeoffs between initial module and system costs, degradation profiles, and levelized cost of energy (LCOE). These tools include the online Detailed Cost Analysis Models (DCAM) and the DuraMAT LCOE calculator.
cost modeling↗
Cost models and economical packaging of LSI's
Report discusses mathematical models used to estimate costs of developing and fabricating microcircuits. Second part discusses LSI packaging using tape chip carrier technology.
Himmel, R. P.↗
Carbon storage cost modeling for the offshore Gulf of Mexico
Groundbreaking for geologic carbon storage (GCS) projects in the offshore Gulf of Mexico is imminent, and there is great interest in utilizing this region for GCS projects. Offshore saline reservoirs provide a significant and accessible resource for GCS. However, conducting GCS in the offshore environment will pose distinct challenges pertaining to site selection, operations, infrastructure use, and monitoring compared to operating onshore that ultimately affect technoeconomic assessment of offshore GCS projects. Carbon storage and transport costs are critical to project developers looking to deploy carbon storage in the offshore environment. We present CO2_S_COM_Offshore, a model developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) as a screening-level offshore saline GCS cost modeling tool. Based on NETL’s widely used CO2_S_COM cost model for onshore saline CS, CO2_S_COM_Offshore enables technoeconomic analysis of GCS in offshore areas. This model comprehensively incorporates multiple facets of offshore GCS projects, from regional evaluation and site selection to permitting, transport, operations, monitoring, site closure, and decommissioning. In general, the model can explore the cost implications for potential offshore GCS project(s) by enabling the user to change several project operational and financial attribute configurations. Key inputs include offshore storage formation options, CO2 injection rate and duration, infrastructure types, monitoring intensity, project financing, and post-injection site care duration. Supporting cost algorithms within CO2_S_COM_Offshore were compiled utilizing S&P Global’ s QUE$TORTM cost estimation software alongside a variety of open-source scientific literature. In addition to reviewing key model components, we discuss several sensitivity analyses, input variabilities, and results on analysis of break-even CO2 price required by a project based on different regulation/policy and operational scenarios for the offshore Gulf of Mexico. These results indicate the value of modeling offshore GCS specifically, and the potential of offshore GCS within a decarbonization value chain. Presented at the 41st USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, 3-6 November 2024, Baton Rouge, LA, United States.
Mark-Moser, Mackenzie K.↗