Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Cost prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8

Predicting Quadcopter Noise With The Lattice-Boltzmann Method

From small delivery Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) to short-haul building-to-building aircraft, urban air mobility is gaining traction as a new approach to tackle the problem of transportation in densely populated areas. NASA’s vision for vertical lift vehicles is to capitalize on and improve unique capabilities to greatly benefit the United States’ growing civil flight requirements. This vision is embodied in the Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology (RVLT)project [1]. Beyond safety, one of the chief concerns of communities where drones are becoming more popular is the noise they generate. Noise will undoubtedly be one of the major obstacles to public acceptance of any new urban air mobility technology. The ability to predict the acoustics of new conceptual aircraft with multiple rotors and complex fuselages is critical to enable the creation of quieter designs. The objective of this research is to build up a better physical understanding of the noise generated by a typical quadcopter drone and what it takes to predict it from first principles using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with the Lattice-Boltzmann method (LBM). The specific goals are to establish best practices to predict multi-rotor and vehicle interaction noise with LBM, validate these predictions by comparing to wind tunnel measurements, and assess the computational cost necessary to obtain accurate predictions.

Francois Cadieux↗

The Need for Technology Maturity of Any Advanced Capability to Achieve Better Life Cycle Cost (LCC)

Programs such as space transportation systems are developed and deployed only rarely, and they have long development schedules and large development and life cycle costs (LCC). They have not historically had their LCC predicted well and have only had an effort to control the DDT&E phase of the programs. One of the factors driving the predictability, and thus control, of the LCC of a program is the maturity of the technologies incorporated in the program. If the technologies incorporated are less mature (as measured by their Technology Readiness Level - TRL), then the LCC not only increases but the degree of increase is difficult to predict. Consequently, new programs avoid incorporating technologies unless they are quite mature, generally TRL greater than or equal to 7 (system prototype demonstrated in a space environment) to allow better predictability of the DDT&E phase costs unless there is no alternative. On the other hand, technology development programs rarely develop technologies beyond TRL 6 (system/subsystem model or prototype demonstrated in a relevant environment). Currently the lack of development funds beyond TRL 6 and the major funding required for full scale development leave little or no funding available to prototype TRL 6 concepts so that hardware would be in the ready mode for safe, reliable and cost effective incorporation. The net effect is that each new program either incorporates little new technology or has longer development schedules and costs, and higher LCC, than planned. This paper presents methods to ensure that advanced technologies are incorporated into future programs while providing a greater accuracy of predicting their LCC. One method is having a dedicated organization to develop X-series vehicles or separate prototypes carried on other vehicles. The question of whether such an organization should be independent of NASA and/or have an independent funding source is discussed. Other methods are also discussed. How to make the choice of which technologies to pursue to the prototype level is also discussed since, to achieve better LCC, first the selection of the appropriate technologies.

Robinson, John W.↗

Characterizing and Modeling the Cost of Rework in a Library of Reusable Software Components

In this paper we characterize and model the cost of rework in a Component Factory (CF) organization. A CF is responsible for developing and packaging reusable software components. Data was collected on corrective maintenance activities for the Generalized Support Software reuse asset library located at the Flight Dynamics Division of NASA's GSFC. We then constructed a predictive model of the cost of rework using the C4.5 system for generating a logical classification model. The predictor variables for the model are measures of internal software product attributes. The model demonstrates good prediction accuracy, and can be used by managers to allocate resources for corrective maintenance activities. Furthermore, we used the model to generate proscriptive coding guidelines to improve programming, practices so that the cost of rework can be reduced in the future. The general approach we have used is applicable to other environments.

Basili, Victor R.↗

The vehicle design evaluation program - A computer-aided design procedure for transport aircraft

The vehicle design evaluation program is described. This program is a computer-aided design procedure that provides a vehicle synthesis capability for vehicle sizing, external load analysis, structural analysis, and cost evaluation. The vehicle sizing subprogram provides geometry, weight, and balance data for aircraft using JP, hydrogen, or methane fuels. The structural synthesis subprogram uses a multistation analysis for aerodynamic surfaces and fuselages to develop theoretical weights and geometric dimensions. The parts definition subprogram uses the geometric data from the structural analysis and develops the predicted fabrication dimensions, parts material raw stock buy requirements, and predicted actual weights. The cost analysis subprogram uses detail part data in conjunction with standard hours, realization factors, labor rates, and material data to develop the manufacturing costs. The program is used to evaluate overall design effects on subsonic commercial type aircraft due to parameter variations.

Oman, B. H.↗

Integrating O/S models during conceptual design, part 3

Space vehicles, such as the Space Shuttle, require intensive ground support prior to, during, and after each mission. Maintenance is a significant part of that ground support. All space vehicles require scheduled maintenance to ensure operability and performance. In addition, components of any vehicle are not one-hundred percent reliable so they exhibit random failures. Once detected, a failure initiates unscheduled maintenance on the vehicle. Maintenance decreases the number of missions which can be completed by keeping vehicles out of service so that the time between the completion of one mission and the start of the next is increased. Maintenance also requires resources such as people, facilities, tooling, and spare parts. Assessing the mission capability and resource requirements of any new space vehicle, in addition to performance specification, is necessary to predict the life cycle cost and success of the vehicle. Maintenance and logistics support has been modeled by computer simulation to estimate mission capability and resource requirements for evaluation of proposed space vehicles. The simulation was written with Simulation Language for Alternative Modeling II (SLAM II) for execution on a personal computer. For either one or a fleet of space vehicles, the model simulates the preflight maintenance checks, the mission and return to earth, and the post flight maintenance in preparation to be sent back into space. THe model enables prediction of the number of missions possible and vehicle turn-time (the time between completion of one mission and the start of the next) given estimated values for component reliability and maintainability. The model also facilitates study of the manpower and vehicle requirements for the proposed vehicle to meet its desired mission rate. This is the 3rd part of a 3 part technical report.

Ebeling, Charles E.↗

Parametric Analysis of Aircraft WingWeight Using Low-Order Physics-Based Analysis

In the conceptual aircraft design phase, prediction of the empty weight typically relies on empirically-based regression equations which execute quickly and require little detailed information about the internal structural layout. Since they are based on existing aircraft, however, empirical methods can lose their validity for newer technologies and unconventional configurations. Designers can transition to higher-order, physics-based analysis methods to improve the accuracy of the weight prediction, but at the cost of complex model setup and increased computational time. This paper describes a methodology for low-order aero-structural analysis of conceptual aircraft configurations that increases the use of physics-based analysis in conceptual design, but is less complex and time-consuming than higher-order methods such as finite-element analysis. The methodology uses Vehicle Sketch Pad (OpenVSP) to model the aircraft geometry, and ASWING to perform the aero-structural analysis. The internal forces and moments from the ASWING analysis are post-processed to calculate the resulting direct and shear stresses in the structure, and the thickness distributions of the aircraft components are varied to match the maximum von Mises stress at each cross section to the material allowable. To offset the increased computational time relative to empirical weight equations, a process is studied which uses parametric variation to develop a regression equation relating the weight of the aircraft wing to major design variables. This new weight equation is similar to existing empirical equations, but is built using the more physics-based methodology; the new equation could be used to augment or replace portions of the empirical database to improve the validity of the wing weight prediction for unconventional configurations and advanced technologies.

Olson, Erik D.↗

Cost analysis of water recovery systems

A methodology was developed to predict the relevant contributions of the more intangible cost elements encountered in the development of flight-qualified hardware based on an extrapolation of past hardware development experience. Major items of costs within water recovery systems were identified and related to physical and/or performance criteria. Cost and performance data from Gemini, Skylab, and other aerospace and biotechnology programs were analyzed to identify major cost elements required to establish cost estimating relationships for advanced water recovery systems. The results of the study are expected to assist NASA in long-range planning and allocation of resources in a cost effective manner in support of earth orbital programs. This report deals with the cost analysis of the five leading water reclamation systems, namely: (1) RITE waste management-water system, (2) reverse osmosis system, (3) multifiltration system, (4) vapor compression system, and (5) closed air evaporation system with electrolytic pretreatment.

Yakut, M. M.↗

A research program for improving heat transfer prediction for the laminar to turbulent transition region of turbine vanes/blades

A program sponsored by NASA for the investigation of the heat transfer in the transition region of turbine vanes and blades with the objective of improving the capability for predicting heat transfer is described. The accurate prediction of gas-side heat transfer is important to the determination of turbine longevity, engine performance, and developmental costs. The need for accurate predictions will become greater as the operating temperatures and stage loading levels of advanced turbine engines increase. The present methods for predicting transition shear stress and heat transfer on turbine blades are based on incomplete knowledge and are largely empirical. To meet the objective of the NASA program, a team approach consisting of researchers from government, universities, a research institute, and a small business is presented. The research is divided into the areas of experiments, direct numerical simulations (DNS), and turbulence modeling. A summary of the results to date is given for the above research areas in a high-disturbance environment (bypass transition) with a discussion of the model development necessary for use in numerical codes.

Simon, Frederick F.↗

A Research Program for Improving Heat Transfer Prediction Capability for the Laminar to Turbulent Transition Region of Turbine Vanes/Blades

A program sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the investigation of the heat transfer in the transition region of turbine vanes and blades with the object of improving the capability for predicting heat transfer is described,. The accurate prediction of gas-side heat transfer is important to the determination of turbine longevity, engine performance and developmental costs. The need for accurate predictions will become greater as the operating temperatures and stage loading levels of advanced turbine engines increase. The present methods for predicting transition shear stress and heat transfer on turbine blades are based on incomplete knowledge and are largely empirical. To meet the objectives of the NASA program, a team approach consisting of researchers from government, universities, a research institute, and a small business is presented. The research is divided into areas of experimentation, direct numerical simulation (DNS) and turbulence modeling. A summary of the results to date is given for the above research areas in a high-disturbance environment (bypass transition) with a discussion of the model development necessary for use in numerical codes.

Simon, Frederick F.↗

The determination of operational and support requirements and costs during the conceptual design of space systems

The primary objective is to develop a methodology for predicting operational and support parameters and costs of proposed space systems. The first phase consists of: (1) the identification of data sources; (2) the development of a methodology for determining system reliability and maintainability parameters; (3) the implementation of the methodology through the use of prototypes; and (4) support in the development of an integrated computer model. The phase 1 results are documented and a direction is identified to proceed to accomplish the overall objective.

Ebeling, Charles↗

Boron-aluminum structural component for Shuttle.

A boron-aluminum structural component, representative of Space Shuttle fuselage structure, has been fabricated and tested as part of a program to demonstrate boron-aluminum feasibility for Shuttle applications. The 4- by 5-foot component consists of eleven 24-ply Z section stringers and a +45 degree 8-ply skin. It was tested at room temperature and at 500 F under combined compressive and shear loadings. The components for this program were fabricated in order to encounter and solve scale-up problems, and to obtain test data representative of production hardware. The data from this program are expected to allow more accurate prediction of weights and costs of boron-aluminum structures for the Space Shuttle.

Brown, E. P.↗

Conclusions and recommendations

Conclusions and recommendations are presented for an analysis of the total energy situation; the effect of the energy problem on air transportation; and hydrogen fuel for aircraft. Properties and production costs of fuels, future prediction for energy and transportation, and economic aspects of hydrogen production are appended.

Source record↗

Operation of a single-channel, sequential Navstar GPS receiver in a helicopter mission environment

It is pointed out that the future utilization of the Navstar Global Positioning System (GPS) by civil helicopters will provide an enhanced performance not obtainable with current navigations systems. GPS will supply properly equipped users with extremely accurate three-dimensional position and velocity information anywhere in the world. Preliminary studies have been conducted to investigate differential GPS concept mechanizations and cost, and to theoretically predict navigation performance and the impact of degradation of the GPS C/A code for national security considerations. The obtained results are encouraging, but certain improvements are needed. As a second step in the program, a single-channel sequential GPS navigator was installed and operated in the NASA SH-3G helicopter. A series of flight tests were conducted. It is found that performance of the Navstar GPS Z-set is quite acceptable to support area navigation and nonprecision approach operations.

Edwards, F. G.↗

A System Concept for Facilitating User Preferences in En Route Airspace

The Federal Aviation Administration is trying to make its air traffic management system more responsive to the needs of the aviation community by exploring the concept of 'free flight' for aircraft flying under instrument flight rules. A logical first step toward free flight could be made without significantly altering current air traffic control (ATC) procedures or requiring new airborne equipment by designing a ground-based system to be highly responsive to 'user preference' in en route airspace while providing for an orderly transition to the terminal area. To facilitate user preference in all en route environments, a system based on an extension of the Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS) is proposed in this document. The new system would consist of two integrated components. An airspace tool (AT) focuses on unconstrained en route aircraft (e.g., not transitioning to the terminal airspace), taking advantage of the relatively unconstrained nature of their flights and using long-range trajectory prediction to provide cost-effective conflict resolution advisories to sector controllers. A sector tool (ST) generates efficient advisories for all aircraft, with a focus on supporting controllers in analyzing and resolving complex, highly constrained traffic situations. When combined, the integrated AT/ST system supports user preference in any air route traffic control center sector. The system should also be useful in evaluating advanced free-flight concepts by serving as a test bed for future research. This document provides an overview of the design concept, explains its anticipated benefits, and recommends a development strategy that leads to a deployable system.

Vivona, R. A.↗

Fiber Pulling Apparatus

The fiber optics industry has grown into a multi-billion marketplace that will continue to grow into the 21st century. Optical fiber communications is currently dominated by silica glass technology. Successful efforts to improve upon the low loss transmission characteristics of silica fibers have propelled the technology into the forefront of the communications industry. However, reaching the theoretical transmission capability of silica fiber through improved processing has still left a few application areas in which other fiber systems can provide an influential role due to specific characteristics of high theoretical transmission in the 2 - 3 micron wavelength region. One of the other major materials used for optical fibers is the systems based upon Heavy Metal Fluoride Glass (HMFG). Commercial interest is driven primarily by the potential for low loss repeaterless infrared fibers. An example of the major communications marketplace which would benefit from the long distance repeaterless capability of infrared fibers is the submarine cables which link the continents. When considering commercial interests, optical fiber systems provide a healthy industrial position which continues to expand. Major investments in the systems used for optical fiber communications have continued to increase each year and are predicted to continue well into the next century. Estimates of 8.5% compounded annually are predicted through 1999 for the North American market and 1 1 % worldwide. The growth for the optical fiber cable itself is expected to continue between 44 and 50 per cent of the optical fiber communications budget through 1999. The total budget in 1999 world-wide is expected to be in the neighborhood of $9 billion. Another survey predicts that long haul telecommunications represents 15% of a world-wide fiber optics market in 1998. The actual amount allotted to cable was not specified. However, another market research had predicted that the cable costs alone represents more than 50% of the total budget each year through 1998. A newly emerging activity is the commercial development of doped optical fibers which can be pumped by laser diodes to provide amplification of the communication signals. This technology is newly emerging and will be developed for commercial interests in the United States by Galileo Electro-optical Incorporated in Sturbridge, MA on a license from British Telecom. Long repeaterless communication links provide the biggest stimulus for this technology. As an example of the of the revenues involved in the optical fiber communications 3 industry, the current trade journal lists that for the fiscal years, 1991 - 1994, 185 separate undersea links were established. In addition, another 105 links are planned through 1998. The distribution of revenues involved in the undersea installations is roughly $8.5 billion through 1993 and another $13 billion planned through 1998. A large portion of the future activity (34%) is planned for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Region. Other examples of the commercial utility of optical fiber networks is given in a recent scientific symposium in which the outlook for HMFG infrared fiber was determined to be very bright.Another area of interest lies in the use of fiber optics for laser surgery delivery systems.

Workman, Gary L.↗

CFD - Mature Technology?

Over the past 30 years, numerical methods and simulation tools for fluid dynamic problems have advanced as a new discipline, namely, computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Although a wide spectrum of flow regimes are encountered in many areas of science and engineering, simulation of compressible flow has been the major driver for developing computational algorithms and tools. This is probably due to a large demand for predicting the aerodynamic performance characteristics of flight vehicles, such as commercial, military, and space vehicles. As flow analysis is required to be more accurate and computationally efficient for both commercial and mission-oriented applications (such as those encountered in meteorology, aerospace vehicle development, general fluid engineering and biofluid analysis) CFD tools for engineering become increasingly important for predicting safety, performance and cost. This paper presents the author's perspective on the maturity of CFD, especially from an aerospace engineering point of view.

Kwak, Dochan↗

Lightning Protection and Instrumentation at Kennedy Space Center

Lightning is a natural phenomenon, but can be dangerous. Prevention of lightning is a physical impossibility and total protection requires compromises on costs and effects, therefore prediction and measurements of the effects that might be produced by iightn:ing is a most at locat:ions where people or sensitive systems and equipment are exposed. This is the case of the launching pads for the Space Shuttle at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. This report summarizes lightring phenomena with a brief explanation of lightning generation and lightning activity as related to KSC. An analysis of the instrumentation used at the launching pads for measurements of lightning effects with alternatives to improve the protection system and up-grade the actual instrumentation system is indicated.

Colon, Jose L.↗