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Red cell mass measurements on Skylab crewmembers revealed a statistically significant decrease in circulating red cells. Low reticulocyte counts at crewmember recovery indicated increased splenic removal of reticulum or decreased bone marrow production rates. After the initial loss there is at least a 30-day delay before red cell mass begins to reconstitute itself.
This paper presents a statistical test for detecting significant differences between two random count accumulations. The null hypothesis is that the two samples share a common random arrival process with a mean count proportional to each sample's exposure. The model represents the partition of N total events into two counts, A and B, as a sequence of N independent Bernoulli trials whose partition fraction, f, is determined by the ratio of the exposures of A and B. The detection of a significant difference is claimed when the background (null) hypothesis is rejected, which occurs when the observed sample falls in a critical region of (A, B) space. The critical region depends on f and the desired significance level, alpha. The model correctly takes into account the fluctuations in both the signals and the background data, including the important case of small numbers of counts in the signal, the background, or both. The significance can be exactly determined from the cumulative binomial distribution, which in turn can be inverted to determine the critical A(B) or B(A) contour. This paper gives efficient implementations of these tests, based on lookup tables. Applications include the detection of clustering of astronomical objects, the detection of faint emission or absorption lines in photon-limited spectroscopy, the detection of faint emitters or absorbers in photon-limited imaging, and dosimetry.
Previous studies have shown that a decrease in red cell mass occurs in astronauts, and some studies indicate a leukocytosis occurs. A life science module housing young and mature rats was flown on shuttle mission Spacelab 3 (SL-3), and the results of hematology studies of flight and control rats are presented. Statistically significant increases in the hematocrit, red blood cell counts, and hemoglobin determinations, together with a mild neutrophilia and lymphopenia, were found in flight animals. No significant changes were found in bone marrow and spleen cell differentials or erythropoietin determinations. Clonal assays demonstrated an increased erythroid colony formation of flight animal bone marrow cells at erythropoietin doses of 0.02 and 1.0 U/ml but not 0.20 U/ml. These results agree with some but vary from other previously published studies. Erythropoietin assays and clonal studies were performed for the first time.
The effects of lightning and other meteorological factors on wildfire activity in the North American boreal forest are statistically analyzed during the fire seasons of 2000-2006 through an integration of the following data sets: the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level 2 fire products, the 3-hourly 32-kin gridded meteorological data from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the lightning data collected by the Canadian Lightning Detection Network (CLDN) and the Alaska Lightning Detection Network (ALDN). Positive anomalies of the 500 hPa geopotential height field, convective available potential energy (CAPE), number of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and the number of consecutive dry days are found to be statistically important to the seasonal variation of MODIS fire counts in a large portion of Canada and the entirety of Alaska. Analysis of fire occurrence patterns in the eastern and western boreal forest regions shows that dry (in the absence of precipitation) lightning strikes account for only 20% of the total lightning strikes, but are associated with (and likely cause) 40% of the MODIS observed fire counts in these regions. The chance for ignition increases when a threshold of at least 10 dry strikes per NARR grid box and at least 10 consecutive dry days is reached. Due to the orientation of the large-scale pattern, complex differences in fire and lightning occurrence and variability were also found between the eastern and western sub-regions. Locations with a high percentage of dry strikes commonly experience an increased number of fire counts, but the mean number of fire counts per dry strike is more than 50% higher in western boreal forest sub-region, suggesting a geographic and possible topographic influence. While wet lightning events are found to occur with a large range of CAPE values, a high probability for dry lightning occurs only when 500 hPa geopotential heights are above 5700m and CAPE values are near the maximum observed level, underscoring the importance of low-level instability to boreal fire weather forecasts-
Variations of the counts-in-cells with cell size are used here to define two statistical measures of large-scale clustering in three 6 deg slices of the CfA redshift survey. A percolation criterion is used to estimate the filling factor which measures the fraction of the total volume in the survey occupied by the large-scale structures. For the full 18 deg slice of the CfA redshift survey, f is about 0.25 + or - 0.05. After removing groups with more than five members from two of the slices, variations of the counts in occupied cells with cell size have a power-law behavior with a slope beta about 2.2 on scales from 1-10/h Mpc. Application of both this statistic and the percolation analysis to simulations suggests that a network of two-dimensional structures is a better description of the geometry of the clustering in the CfA slices than a network of one-dimensional structures. Counts-in-cells are also used to estimate at 0.3 galaxy h-squared/Mpc the average galaxy surface density in sheets like the Great Wall.
In this paper, we describe work on extending statistical analysis methods to optical communications links, with a primary focus on intensity modulated, direct detected photon-counting channel utilizing pulse-position-modulation (PPM). We performed analysis on the relationship between bit error rate (BER) requirement, statistical characteristics of the received signal power and noise power, and the coded performance curves. We presented link analysis results with preliminary uncertainty quantifications of signal power and noise power. We used the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) Serially Concatenated convolutionally coded Pulse Position Modulation (SCPPM) prototype software [1] to obtain coded performance curves under different operating conditions with varying signal power, background noise power, code rates,and PPM modulation orders. Comparison with traditional, deterministic analysis shows that extra margin needs to be reserved to compensate for the performance losses caused by uncertainties of the link parameters.
Morphological changes were observed in the left ventricle of rat heart tissue from animals flown on the Cosmos 1887 biosatellite for 12.5 days. These tissues were compared to the synchronous and vivarium control hearts. While many normal myofibrils were observed, others exhibited ultrastructural alterations, i.e., damaged and irregular-shaped mitochondria and generalized myofibrillar edema. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the volume density data revealed a statistically significant increase in glycogen and a significant decrease in mitochondria compared to the synchronous and vivarium controls. Point counting indicated an increase in lipid and myeloid bodies and a decrease in microtubules, but these changes were not statistically significant. In addition, the flight animals exhibited some patchy loss of protofibrils (actin and myosin filaments) and some abnormal supercontracted myofibrils that were not seen in the controls. This study was undertaken to gain insight into the mechanistic aspects of cardiac changes in both animals and human beings as a consequence of space travel. Cardiac hypotrophy and fluid shifts have been observed after actual or simulated weightlessness and raise concerns about the functioning of the heart and circulatory system during and after travel in space.
The Number counts of far-ultraviolet (FUV) galaxies as a function of magnitude provide a direct statistical measure of the density and evolution of star-forming galaxies. We report on the results of measurements of the rest-frame FUV number counts computed from data of several fields including the Hubble Ultra Deep Field, the Hubble Deep Field North, and the GOODS-North and -South fields. These data were obtained from the Hubble Space Telescope Solar Blind Channel of the Advance Camera for Surveys. The number counts cover an AB magnitude range from 20-29 magnitudes, covering a total area of 15.9 arcmin'. We show that the number counts are lower than those in previous studies using smaller areas. The differences in the counts are likely the result of cosmic variance; our new data cover more area and more lines of sight than the previous studies. The slope of our number counts connects well with local FUV counts and they show good agreement with recent semi-analytical models based on dark matter "merger trees".
To aid the planning of the Apollo Soyuz Test Program (ASTP), certain natural environment statistical relationships are presented, based on Markov theory and empirical counts. The practical results are in terms of conditional probability of favorable and unfavorable launch conditions at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). They are based upon 15 years of recorded weather data which are analyzed under a set of natural environmental launch constraints. Three specific forecasting problems were treated: (1) the length of record of past weather which is useful to a prediction; (2) the effect of persistence in runs of favorable and unfavorable conditions; and (3) the forecasting of future weather in probabilistic terms.
We test the model of the Galactic point source sky recently extended to the far-ultraviolet by Cohen (1994) against the set of Galactic far-ultraviolet point sources detected by the Far Ultraviolet Space Telescope (FAUST) experiment. We find excellent agreement between the predicted (log N, log S) and the observed source counts for a range of Galactic directions observed by Faust. At low galactic latitudes, we can directly infer the amount of interstellar extinction in a given direction associated with local molecular complexes, based on comparison of model calculations and FAUST star counts. The model can also be used to predict the statistical stellar content of any field. We compare the model predcitions with the observations of Brosch et al. (1994), who have spectroscopically studied an optically identified complete sample of FAUST objects in a region near the north Galactic pole. We have used the model to determine that the contribution of far-ultraviolet stars fainter than 6 x 10(exp -14) ergs/s/sq cm/A (the FAUST detection limit) is less than 1% of the diffuse sky brightness, and less than about 4% of the total point source flux.
This report finishes the work of NASA Grant NAS2-153, which supported data analysis for the UCSD instruments on Pioneers 10 and 11. The data analyzed under this grant span 22 years of interplanetary measurements in the inner and outer heliosphere. The UCSD instruments made their mark in cosmic ray research based upon their high energy thresholds, directional responses, and reliable data streams. one of their primary scientific objectives concerns the size, configuration, and time behavior of the heliosphere. The size scale is inferred from the radial intensity gradient, which is measured between the two spacecraft and extrapolated to interstellar intensity levels at the cosmic ray modulation boundary. This boundary still eludes us, and its position, motion, and the best method of extrapolation are ongoing problems. Current projections place the boundary beyond 100 AU, which may be beyond the termination shock, and raises the question of possible modulation in the heliosheath. Probably our only hope of seeing this region in the immediate future rides on the possibility that the boundary will move inward. Our instruments have recorded many Forbush, or transient, decreases in the outer heliosphere. These observations led us to a model that attributes many of the decreases to solar wind stream-stream interactions, and relates the cosmic ray variations to the locally observed magnetic field magnitude. As the cosmic ray variations in this model result only from topological changes in the modulation integral, the model is a tool for studying the possibility that the 11 year cosmic ray modulation cycle can be accounted for by a superposition of Forbush decreases. The cosmic ray angular distribution function is measurable, given a good telemetry rate, by the UCSD Cerenkov detector which counts particles of energy greater than 500 MeV/n. We obtained statistically significant samples from 1 to 9 AU, at 13 AU, and at 34 AU. The anisotropy tends to be a few tenths of a per cent at all radial distances. A quasiperiodic variation in the east-west anisotropy with period of about 50 days remains unexplained.
The statistical distribution of fluctuations on various scales is analyzed in terms of the counts in cells of smoothed density fields, using volume-limited samples of galaxy redshift catalogs. It is shown that the distribution on large scales, with volume average of the two-point correlation function of the smoothed field less than about 0.05, is consistent with Gaussian. Statistics are shown to agree remarkably well with the negative binomial distribution, which has hierarchial correlations and a Gaussian behavior at large scales. If these observed properties correspond to the matter distribution, they suggest that our universe started with Gaussian fluctuations and evolved keeping hierarchial form.
In a photon counting detector array, each pixel in the array produces an electrical pulse when an incident photon on that pixel is detected. Detection and demodulation of an optical communication signal that modulated the intensity of the optical signal requires counting the number of photon arrivals over a given interval. As the size of photon counting photodetector arrays increases, parallel processing of all the pixels exceeds the resources available in current application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) and gate array (GA) technology; the desire for a high fill factor in avalanche photodiode (APD) detector arrays also precludes this. Through the use of downsampling and windowing portions of the detector array, the processing is distributed between the ASIC and GA. This allows demodulation of the optical communication signal incident on a large photon counting detector array, as well as providing architecture amenable to algorithmic changes. The detector array readout ASIC functions as a parallel-to-serial converter, serializing the photodetector array output for subsequent processing. Additional downsampling functionality for each pixel is added to this ASIC. Due to the large number of pixels in the array, the readout time of the entire photodetector is greater than the time between photon arrivals; therefore, a downsampling pre-processing step is done in order to increase the time allowed for the readout to occur. Each pixel drives a small counter that is incremented at every detected photon arrival or, equivalently, the charge in a storage capacitor is incremented. At the end of a user-configurable counting period (calculated independently from the ASIC), the counters are sampled and cleared. This downsampled photon count information is then sent one counter word at a time to the GA. For a large array, processing even the downsampled pixel counts exceeds the capabilities of the GA. Windowing of the array, whereby several subsets of pixels are designated for processing, is used to further reduce the computational requirements. The grouping of the designated pixel frame as the photon count information is sent one word at a time to the GA, the aggregation of the pixels in a window can be achieved by selecting only the designated pixel counts from the serial stream of photon counts, thereby obviating the need to store the entire frame of pixel count in the gate array. The pixel count se quence from each window can then be processed, forming lower-rate pixel statistics for each window. By having this processing occur in the GA rather than in the ASIC, future changes to the processing algorithm can be readily implemented. The high-bandwidth requirements of a photon counting array combined with the properties of the optical modulation being detected by the array present a unique problem that has not been addressed by current CCD or CMOS sensor array solutions.
New systems have been developed for measuring the average impulse response, the pulse-height spectrum, the transit-time statistics as a function of signal level, and the dark-count spectrum of gigahertz bandwidth photomultipliers. Measurements showed that the 0.53 microns pulse used as an optical test source had a 30 picoseconds and less than 70 ps pulse width. Calibration data showed the system resolution to be less than 20 ps for root mean square transit-time measurements. Test data for a static crossed-field photomultiplier showed 2-photoelectron resolution and less than 30-ps time jitter over the 1- to 100-photoelectron range.
Data from the deep underground vertically directed muon telescopes at Poatina, Tasmania, have been used since 1972 for a number of investigations, including the daily intensity variations, atmospheric influences, and checking for possible effects due to the interplanetary magnetic field. These telescopes have a total sensitive area of only 3 square meters, with the result that the counting rate is low (about 1680 events per hour) and the statistical errors on the results are rather large. Consequently, it was decided several years ago to construct larger detectors for this station. The first of these telescopes has been in operation for two complete years, and the results from it are presented. Results from the new, more stable equipment at Poatina appear to confirm the existence of a first harmonic in the daily variations in sidereal time reported earlier, and are consistent with small or non-existent first harmonics in solar and anti-sidereal time. All the second harmonics appear to be small, if not zero at these energies.
The calculation of limits for small numbers of astronomical counts is based on standard equations derived from Poisson and binomial statistics; although the equations are straightforward, their direct use is cumbersome and involves both table-interpolations and several mathematical operations. Convenient tables and approximate formulae are here presented for confidence limits which are based on such Poisson and binomial statistics. The limits in the tables are given for all confidence levels commonly used in astrophysics.
The variability in soft X-ray emission of 12 OB stars is studied. Two different methods of analysis, one more suitable for detecting short-term variations, the other aimed at detecting long time-scale variations, are applied to all stars in the sample. The long-term variability analysis shows that Cyg-OB2 8A Zeta Pup and Delta Ori exhibit significant count rate variations between different data sections. Similar variations are marginally detected in 15 Mon; the count rate variations for the other eight stars are consistent with statistical fluctuations. The light curve of Cyg-OB2 8A suggests the existence of two different emission levels. The short-term variability analysis detects marginal variability in Tau Sco with an effective amplitude of about 30 percent and a time scale of about 50 s. The upper limits to the effective short-term variability amplitude for all other sample stars are in the 10-30 percent range.
We have searched the Einstein Monitor Proportional Counter (MPC) data base for observations of clusters of galaxies. By coadding the MPC spectra obtained during all pointed observations of clusters with IPC count rates greater than 0.1 counts/s, we have obtained sufficient photon statistics to estimate the X-ray temperature of 84 clusters. Combining the MPC results with EXOSAT and Ginga results reported in the literature yields a combined sample of 104 clusters with known X-ray temperatures. One of the best studied X-ray correlations between clusters is that between their X-ray luminosity and gas temperature. We show that the best-fit power-law relation for our combined cluster sample can be explained by the observed increase in the gas-to-stellar mass ratio between low- and high-temperature clusters. The statistical significance of any evolution in our combined X-ray sample has been examined and compared with the statistical properties of clusters culled from optical catalogs. We find that there is strong evidence for a decrease in the X-ray luminosity of optically rich clusters beyond z approximately about 0.06. This result is used to estimate the normalization of the primordial power spectrum of density fluctuations.