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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of MODIS and VIIRS Cloud-Gap-Filled Snow-Cover Products for Production of an Earth Science Data Record

MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cryosphere products have been available since 2000 – following the 1999 launch of the Terra MODIS and the 2002 launch of the Aqua MODIS – and include global snow-cover extent (SCE) (swath, daily, and 8 d composites) at 500 m and ∼5 km spatial resolutions. These products are used extensively in hydrological modeling and climate studies. Reprocessing of the complete snow-cover data record, from Collection 5 (C5) to Collection 6 (C6) and Collection 6.1 (C6.1), has provided improvements in the MODIS product suite. Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Collection 1 (C1) snow-cover products at a 375 m spatial resolution have been available since 2011 and are currently being reprocessed for Collection 2 (C2). Both the MODIS C6.1 and the VIIRS C2 products will be available for download from the National Snow and Ice Data Center beginning in early 2020 with the complete time series available in 2020. To address the need for a cloud-reduced or cloud-free daily SCE product for both MODIS and VIIRS, a daily cloud-gap-filled (CGF) snow-cover algorithm was developed for MODIS C6.1 and VIIRS C2 processing. MOD10A1F (Terra) and MYD10A1F (Aqua) are daily, 500 m resolution CGF SCE map products from MODIS. VNP10A1F is the daily, 375 m resolution CGF SCE map product from VIIRS. These CGF products include quality-assurance data such as cloud-persistence statistics showing the age of the observation in each pixel. The objective of this paper is to introduce the new MODIS and VIIRS standard CGF daily SCE products and to provide a preliminary evaluation of uncertainties in the gap-filling methodology so that the products can be used as the basis for a moderate-resolution Earth science data record (ESDR) of SCE. Time series of the MODIS and VIIRS CGF products have been developed and evaluated at selected study sites in the US and southern Canada. Observed differences, although small, are largely attributed to cloud masking and differences in the time of day of image acquisition. A nearly 3-month time-series comparison of Terra MODIS and S-NPP VIIRS CGF snow-cover maps for a large study area covering all or parts of 11 states in the western US and part of southwestern Canada reveals excellent correspondence between the Terra MODIS and S-NPP VIIRS products, with a mean difference of 11 070 sqkm, which is ∼0.45 % of the study area. According to our preliminary validation of the Terra and Aqua MODIS CGF SCE products in the western US study area, we found higher accuracy of the Terra product compared with the Aqua product. The MODIS CGF SCE data record beginning in 2000 has been extended into the VIIRS era, which should last at least through the early 2030s.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗
NASA NTRS2013

UAVSAR Program: Initial Results from New Instrument Capabilities

UAVSAR is an imaging radar instrument suite that serves as NASA's airborne facility instrument to acquire scientific data for Principal Investigators as well as a radar test-bed for new radar observation techniques and radar technology demonstration. Since commencing operational science observations in January 2009, the compact, reconfigurable, pod-based radar has been acquiring L-band fully polarimetric SAR (POLSAR) data with repeat-pass interferometric (RPI) observations underneath NASA Dryden's Gulfstream-III jet to provide measurements for science investigations in solid earth and cryospheric studies, vegetation mapping and land use classification, archaeological research, soil moisture mapping, geology and cold land processes. In the past year, we have made significant upgrades to add new instrument capabilities and new platform options to accommodate the increasing demand for UAVSAR to support scientific campaigns to measure subsurface soil moisture, acquire data in the polar regions, and for algorithm development, verification, and cross-calibration with other airborne/spaceborne instruments.

P-band polarimetry↗
NASA NTRS2000

MALDI for Europa Planetary Science and Exobiology

TOF MS for Europa landed science can identify small molecules of the cryosphere and complex biomolecules upwelling from a subsurface water ocean. A matrix-assisted laser-desorption ionization (MALDI) testbed for cryo-ice mixtures is being developed.

Wdowiak, T. J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Arctic

The Arctic environment in 2024 continued on a trajectory that has put it in a state far different from that of the twentieth century. Ongoing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to quickly warm the Arctic, resulting in rapid changes in the cryosphere that are driving cascading impacts to climate, ecological, and societal systems. Many weather- and climate-related impacts in the Arctic are the result of compounding change, such as increased riverbank erosion, which is proximately due to increased river discharge from higher seasonal precipitation, yet is also exacerbated by thawing permafrost. However, even individual storms occur within very different ocean and ice conditions than were typically present in the late twentieth century. As a result, the impacts, including high winds, excessive precipitation, and coastal inundation, may be quite different nowadays, as exemplified by the October 2024 storm in northwest Alaska that produced severe coastal flooding in several communities. To share some of these impacts with a wider audience, select extreme weather impacts around the greater Arctic have been highlighted through the inclusion of sidebars in recent State of the Climate Arctic chapters (e.g., Benestad et al. 2023; Thoman et al. 2024).

Thoman, Richard L. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK↗
DOE OSTI2026

Partial Support for the Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research

An interagency collaboration initiated between Navy, Air Force and NOAA and expanded to DOE, NASA, and NSF in 2012, for coordination of research to operations of a National earth system analysis and prediction capability. The goal of ESPC is to meet broad but specific agency requirements for an earth system analysis and prediction framework to support one-day to decadal global prediction at appropriate horizontal and vertical resolution; including the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, and space.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modelling the coupled mercury-halogen-ozone cycle in the central Arctic during spring

Near-surface mercury and ozone depletion events occur in the lowest part of the atmosphere during Arctic spring. Mercury depletion is the first step in a process that transforms long-lived elemental mercury to more reactive forms within the Arctic that are deposited to the cryosphere, ocean, and other surfaces, which can ultimately get integrated into the Arctic food web. Depletion of both mercury and ozone occur due to the presence of reactive halogen radicals that are released from snow, ice, and aerosols. In this work, we added a detailed description of the Arctic atmospheric mercury cycle to our recently published version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem 4.3.3) that includes Arctic bromine and chlorine chemistry and activation/recycling on snow and aerosols. The major advantage of our modelling approach is the online calculation of bromine concentrations and emission/recycling that is required to simulate the hourly and daily variability of Arctic mercury depletion. We used this model to study coupling between reactive cycling of mercury, ozone, and bromine during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) spring season in 2020 and evaluated results compared to land-based, ship-based, and remote sensing observations. The model predicts that elemental mercury oxidation is driven largely by bromine chemistry and that particulate mercury is the major form of oxidized mercury. The model predicts that the majority (74%) of oxidized mercury deposited to land-based snow is re-emitted to the atmosphere as gaseous elemental mercury, while a minor fraction (4%) of oxidized mercury that is deposited to sea ice is re-emitted during spring. Our work demonstrates that hourly differences in bromine/ozone chemistry in the atmosphere must be considered to capture the springtime Arctic mercury cycle, including its integration into the cryosphere and ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic

Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. Here, in this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. Future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers.

atmospheric dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2026

How Snow Drives the Seasonal Evolution of Land and Sea Surface Albedos in the Alaskan High Arctic: Final Technical Report

The purpose of the project was to observe and quantify temporal variation in snow albedo and snow characteristics across the Arctic coastal landscape as winter transitioned into spring and snowmelt occurred, both on tundra and sea ice. This transition is bounded by fully snow-covered landscapes with broadband albedos of approximately 0.8 and snow-free landscapes with albedos of 0.15 (tundra or ponded sea ice). For these landscapes, we monitored the spring surface characteristics and radiative properties nearly daily at three locations on or near the Department of Energy ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) User Facility in Utqiagvik, Alaska: the central NSA Facility (hereafter called ARM), one near NSA-E12 (BEO), and one on the sea ice of Elson Lagoon (ICE) during three melt seasons (2019, 2022, and 2024). The field campaign component of this award was named SALVO ( S now AL bedo E VO lution). Typical field seasons began in mid-April and lasted until mid-June. Main measurements included snow depth (at 1-m intervals), broadband albedo (at 5-m intervals), spectral albedo (at 5- m intervals), and multiple digital images. Orthomosaics were converted into binary images to determine the snow-covered fraction over time across various landscapes. Additional measurements included basic weather data and snow-ground (or ice) interface temperatures. Sky conditions were observed and photographed to help assess albedo values.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Genomic profiles of four novel cyanobacteria MAGs from Lake Vanda, Antarctica: insights into photosynthesis, cold tolerance, and the circadian clock

Cyanobacteria in polar environments face environmental challenges, including cold temperatures and extreme light seasonality with small diurnal variation, which has implications for polar circadian clocks. However, polar cyanobacteria remain underrepresented in available genomic data, and there are limited opportunities to study their genetic adaptations to these challenges. This paper presents four new Antarctic cyanobacteria metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) from microbial mats in Lake Vanda in the McMurdo Dry Valleys in Antarctica. The four MAGs were classified as Leptolyngbya sp. BulkMat.35, Pseudanabaenaceae cyanobacterium MP8IB2.15, Microcoleus sp. MP8IB2.171, and Leptolyngbyaceae cyanobacterium MP9P1.79. The MAGs contain 2.76 Mbp – 6.07 Mbp, and the bin completion ranges from 74.2–92.57%. Furthermore, the four cyanobacteria MAGs have average nucleotide identities (ANIs) under 90% with each other and under 77% with six existing polar cyanobacteria MAGs and genomes. This suggests that they are novel cyanobacteria and demonstrates that polar cyanobacteria genomes are underrepresented in reference databases and there is continued need for genome sequencing of polar cyanobacteria. Analyses of the four novel and six existing polar cyanobacteria MAGs and genomes demonstrate they have genes coding for various cold tolerance mechanisms and most standard circadian rhythm genes with the Leptolyngbya sp. BulkMat.35 and Leptolyngbyaceae cyanobacterium MP9P1.79 contained kaiB3, a divergent homolog of kaiB.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Grand Challenges of Hydrologic Modeling for Food-Energy-Water Nexus Security in High Mountain Asia

Climate-influenced changes in hydrology affect water-food-energy security that may impact up to two billion people downstream of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Changes in water supply affect energy, industry, transportation, and ecosystems (agriculture, fisheries) and as a result, also affect the region's social, environmental, and economic fabrics. Sustaining the highly interconnected food-energy-water nexus (FEWN) will be a fundamental and increasing challenge under a changing climate regime. High variability in topography and distribution of glaciated and snow-covered areas in the HMA region, and scarcity of high resolution (in-situ) data make it difficult to model and project climate change impacts on individual watersheds. We lack basic understanding of the spatial and temporal variations in climate, surface impurities in snow and ice such as black carbon and dust that alter surface albedo, and glacier mass balance and dynamics. These knowledge gaps create challenges in predicting where and when the impact of changes in river flow will be the most significant economically and ecologically. In response to these challenges, the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established the High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT) in 2016 to conduct research to address knowledge gaps. This paper summarizes some of the advances HiMAT made over the past 5 years, highlights the scientific challenges in improving our understanding of the hydrology of the HMA region, and introduces an integrated assessment framework to assess the impacts of climate changes on the FEWN for the HMA region. The framework, developed under a NASA HMA project, links climate models, hydrology, hydropower, fish biology, and economic analysis. The framework could be applied to develop scientific understanding of spatio-temporal variability in water availability and the resultant downstream impacts on the FEWN to support water resource management under a changing climate regime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Land, Cryosphere, and Nighttime Environmental Products from Suomi NPP VIIRS: Overview and Status

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument was launched in October 2011 as part of the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP: http://npp.gsfc.nasa.gov/). VIIRS was designed to improve upon the capabilities of the operational Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and provide observation continuity with NASA's Earth Observing System's (EOS) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Since the VIIRS first-light images were received in November 2011, NASA and NOAA funded scientists have been working to evaluate the instrument performance and derived products to meet the needs of the NOAA operational users and the NASA science community. NOAA's focus has been on refining a suite of operational products known as Environmental Data Records (EDRs), which were developed according to project specifications under the former National Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS). The NASA S-NPP Science Team has focused on evaluating the EDRs for science use, developing and testing additional products to meet science data needs and providing MODIS data product continuity. This paper will present to-date findings of the NASA Science Team's evaluation of the VIIRS Land and Cryosphere EDRs, specifically Surface Reflectance, Land Surface Temperature, Surface Albedo, Vegetation Indices, Surface Type, Active Fires, Snow Cover, Ice Surface Temperature, and Sea Ice Characterization (http://viirsland.gsfc.nasa.gov/index.html). The paper will also discuss new capabilities being developed at NASA's Land Product Evaluation and Test Element (http://landweb.nascom.nasa.gov/NPP_QA/); including downstream data and products derived from the VIIRS Day/Night Band (DNB).

land cover land use↗
NASA NTRS2014

Aquarius Radiometer and Scatterometer Weekly-Polar-Gridded Products to Monitor Ice Sheets, Sea Ice, and Frozen Soil

Space-based microwave sensors have been available for several decades, and with time more frequencies have been offered. Observations made at frequencies between 7 and 183 GHz were often used for monitoring cryospheric properties (e.g. sea ice concentration, snow accumulation, snow melt extent and duration). Since 2009, satellite observations are available at the low frequency of 1.4 GHz. Such observations are collected by the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, and the AquariusSAC-D mission. Even though these missions have been designed for the monitoring of soil moisture and sea surface salinity, new applications are being developed to study the cryosphere. For instance, L-band observations can be used to monitor soil freezethaw (e.g. Rautiainen et al., 2012), and thin sea ice thickness (e.g. Kaleschke et al., 2010, Huntemann et al., 2013). Moreover, with the development of satellite missions comes the need for calibration and validation sites. These sites must have stable characteristics, such as the Antarctic Plateau (Drinkwater et al., 2004, Macelloni et al., 2013). Therefore, studying the cryosphere with 1.4 GHz observations is relevant for both science applications, and remote sensing applications.

Aquarius↗
NASA NTRS2014

Aquarius Radiometer and Scatterometer Weekly Polar-Gridded Products to Monitor Ice Sheets, Sea Ice, and Frozen Soil

Space-based microwave sensors have been available for several decades, and with time more frequencies have been offered. Observations made at frequencies between 7 and 183 GHz were often used for monitoring cryospheric properties (e.g. sea ice concentration, snow accumulation, snow melt extent and duration). Since 2009, satellite observations are available at the low frequency of 1.4 GHz. Such observations are collected by the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, and the Aquarius/SAC-D mission. Even though these missions have been designed for the monitoring of soil moisture and sea surface salinity, new applications are being developed to study the cryosphere. For instance, L-band observations can be used to monitor soil freeze/thaw (e.g. Rautiainen et al., 2012), and thin sea ice thickness (e.g. Kaleschke et al., 2010, Huntemann et al., 2013). Moreover, with the development of satellite missions comes the need for calibration and validation sites. These sites must have stable characteristics, such as the Antarctic Plateau (Drinkwater et al., 2004, Macelloni et al., 2013). Therefore, studying the cryosphere with 1.4 GHz observations is relevant for both science applications, and remote sensing applications.

Sea ice↗
NASA NTRS2006

Rapid, Repeat-sample Monitoring of Crustal Deformations and Environmental Phenomena with the Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar

The Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) is a precision repeat-pass Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) mission being developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Dryden Flight Research Center in support of NASA s Science Mission Directorate. UAVSAR's unique ability to fly a repeatable flight path, along with an electronically steerable array, allows interferometric data to be obtained with accuracies measured in millimeters. Deploying the radar on an airborne platform will also allow for radar images to be collected and compared with images from the same area taken hours or even years later - providing for long-term trending and near real-time notification of changes and deformations. UAVSAR s data processing algorithms will provide for near-real time data reduction providing disaster planning and response teams with highly accurate data to aid in the prediction of, and response to, natural phenomena. UAVSAR data can be applied to increasing our understanding of the processes behind solid earth, cryosphere, carbon cycle and other areas of interest in earth science. Technologies developed for UAVSAR may also be applicable to a future earth-orbiting InSAR mission and possibly for missions to the Moon or Mars. The UAVSAR is expected to fly on a Gulfstream III aircraft this winter, followed by a flight test program lasting until the second half of 2007. Following radar calibration and data reduction activities, the platform will be ready for science users in the summer of 2008.

Smith, Robert C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Slope Imaging Multi-Polarization Photon-Counting Lidar: Development and Performance Results

The Slope Imaging Multi-polarization Photon-counting Lidar is an airborne instrument developed to demonstrate laser altimetry measurement methods that will enable more efficient observations of topography and surface properties from space. The instrument was developed through the NASA Earth Science Technology Office Instrument Incubator Program with a focus on cryosphere remote sensing. The SIMPL transmitter is an 11 KHz, 1064 nm, plane-polarized micropulse laser transmitter that is frequency doubled to 532 nm and split into four push-broom beams. The receiver employs single-photon, polarimetric ranging at 532 and 1064 nm using Single Photon Counting Modules in order to achieve simultaneous sampling of surface elevation, slope, roughness and depolarizing scattering properties, the latter used to differentiate surface types. Data acquired over ice-covered Lake Erie in February, 2009 are documenting SIMPL s measurement performance and capabilities, demonstrating differentiation of open water and several ice cover types. ICESat-2 will employ several of the technologies advanced by SIMPL, including micropulse, single photon ranging in a multi-beam, push-broom configuration operating at 532 nm.

Dabney, Phillip↗
NASA NTRS2023

Sea Surface Temperature Gradients Estimation Using Top-of-Atmosphere Observations from the ESA Earth Explorer 10 Harmony Mission: Preliminary Studies

The Harmony satellite mission was recently approved as the next European Space Agency (ESA) Earth Explorer 10. The mission science objectives cover several applications related to solid earth, the cryosphere, upper-ocean dynamics and air–sea interactions. The mission consists of a constellation of two satellites, flying with the Copernicus Sentinel 1 (C or D) spacecraft, each hosting a C-band receive-only radar and a thermal infrared (TIR) payload. From an ocean dynamics/air–sea interaction perspective, the mission will provide the unique opportunity to observe simultaneously the signature of submesoscale upper-ocean processes via synthetic aperture radar and TIR imagery. The TIR imager is based on microbolometer technology and its acquisitions will rely on four channels: three narrow-band channels yielding observations at a ≃1 km spatial sampling distance (SSD) and a panchromatic (PAN, 8–12 μm) channel characterized by a ≃300 m SSD. Our study investigates the potential of Harmony in retrieving spatial features related to sea surface temperature (SST) gradients from the high-resolution PAN channel, relying on top-of-atmosphere (TOA) observations. Compared to a standard SST gradient retrieval, our approach does not require atmospheric correction, thus avoiding uncertainties due to inter-channel co-registration and radiometric consistency, with the possibility of exploiting the higher resolution of the PAN channel. The investigations were carried out simulating the future Harmony TOA radiances (TARs), as well as relying on existing state-of-the-art level 1 satellite products. Our approach enables the correct description of SST features at the sea surface avoiding the generation of spurious features due to atmospheric correction and/or instrumental issues. In addition, analyses based on existing satellite products suggest that the clear-sky TOA observations, in a typical mid-latitude scene, allow the reconstruction of up to 85% of the gradient magnitudes found at the sea-surface level. The methodology is less efficient in tropical areas, suffering from smoothing effects due to the high concentrations of water vapor.

sea surface temperature (SST)↗
NASA NTRS2008

Modern Era Retrospective Restrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Data and Services at the GES DISC

The Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset is a NASA satellite era, 30 year (1979 - present), reanalysis using the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System, Version 5 (GEOS-5). The project, run out of NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at Goddard Space Flight Center, provides the science and application communities with a state-of-the-art global analysis with emphasis on improved estimates of the hydrological cycle over a broad range of weather and climate time scales. MERRA products are generated as a long-term synthesis that places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The MERRA analysis is performed at a horizontal resolution of 2/3 longitude x 1/2 latitude (540x361 global gridpoints) with observational analyses every 6 hours. The MERRA output data will include 3 dimensional state fields for every 6 hourly analysis cycle on 42 pressure levels (or 72 terrain following model coordinate levels) from the surface through the stratosphere. Several data products are specifically designed to support chemistry and stratosphere transport modeling. The 2 dimensional surface and atmospheric diagnostics (numbering 259) are being stored on the native grid at 1 hourly intervals. These include radiation and vertical integrals of the atmosphere for water and energy budget studies and also surface diagnostics where the diurnal cycle is important. The one hourly surface and near surface data product will also facilitate research on the integrated analysis of Earth system observations in the land, ocean and cryosphere. The MERRA products are archived and distributed by the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) through its Modeling DISC Web (MDISC) portal. Multiple data access methods and services are available for MERRA data through MDISC: (1) Mirador offers a quick, comprehensive search of MERRA and all GES DISC archived data holdings, allowing searches on keywords, location names or latitude/longitude box, and date/time, with responses within a few seconds. (2) Giovanni is a GES DISC developed Web application that provides data visualization and analysis online. Giovanni features popular visualizations such as latitude-longitude maps, animations, cross sections, profiles, time series, etc. and some basic statistical analysis functions such as scatter plots and correlation coefficient maps. Users are able to download results in several different formats, including Google Earth. (3) On-the-fly parameter subsetting of data within a spatial/temporal window is provided through a simple select and click Web page. (4) MERRA data are also available via OPeNDAP, GrADS Data Server (GDS) and can be converted to netCDF on the fly.

Berrick, Stephen W.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Framework to Project the Permafrost Fate With Explicit Quantification of Soil Property and Future Climate Uncertainties

This study develops a novel general framework to project the permafrost fate with rigorous uncertainty quantification to assess dominant sources. Borehole temperature records from three sites in the Russian western Arctic are used to constrain the uncertainty of a high‐fidelity freeze‐thaw model. Projections from 9 Global Climate Models (GCM) are stochastically downscaled to generate future trajectories of surface ground heat flux. Under the two emission scenarios SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, the projected average thawing depths by 2100 vary from 0.4 to 14.4 m or 2.1 to 17.7 m, and the increase in the top 10 m average temperature from 2015 to 2100 is 1.2–2.7°C or 1.9–3.0°C. The results show that the freeze‐thaw model uncertainty can sometimes dominate over that of GCM outputs, calling for site‐specific information to improve model accuracy. The framework is applicable for understanding permafrost degradation and related uncertainties at larger scales.

Bayesian downscaling↗