SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “DROUGHT”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Comparative transcriptomics and metabolomics reveal specialized metabolite drought stress responses in switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum )

Summary Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) is a bioenergy model crop valued for its energy efficiency and drought tolerance. The related monocot species rice ( Oryza sativa ) and maize ( Zea mays ) deploy species‐specific, specialized metabolites as core stress defenses. By contrast, specialized chemical defenses in switchgrass are largely unknown. To investigate specialized metabolic drought responses in switchgrass, we integrated tissue‐specific transcriptome and metabolite analyses of the genotypes Alamo and Cave‐in‐Rock that feature different drought tolerance. The more drought‐susceptible Cave‐in‐Rock featured an earlier onset of transcriptomic changes and significantly more differentially expressed genes in response to drought compared to Alamo. Specialized pathways showed moderate differential expression compared to pronounced transcriptomic alterations in carbohydrate and amino acid metabolism. However, diterpenoid‐biosynthetic genes showed drought‐inducible expression in Alamo roots, contrasting largely unaltered triterpenoid and phenylpropanoid pathways. Metabolomic analyses identified common and genotype‐specific flavonoids and terpenoids. Consistent with transcriptomic alterations, several root diterpenoids showed significant drought‐induced accumulation, whereas triterpenoid abundance remained predominantly unchanged. Structural analysis verified select drought‐responsive diterpenoids as oxygenated furanoditerpenoids. Drought‐dependent transcriptome and metabolite profiles provide the foundation to understand the molecular mechanisms underlying switchgrass drought responses. Accumulation of specialized root diterpenoids and corresponding pathway transcripts supports a role in drought stress tolerance.

transcriptomics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cell Wall Compositions of Sorghum bicolor Leaves and Roots Remain Relatively Constant Under Drought Conditions

Renewable fuels are needed to replace fossil fuels in the immediate future. Lignocellulosic bioenergy crops provide a renewable alternative that sequesters atmospheric carbon. To prevent displacement of food crops, it would be advantageous to grow biofuel crops on marginal lands. These lands will likely face more frequent and extreme drought conditions than conventional agricultural land, so it is crucial to see how proposed bioenergy crops fare under these conditions and how that may affect lignocellulosic biomass composition and saccharification properties. We found that while drought impacts the plant cell wall of Sorghum bicolor differently according to tissue and timing of drought induction, drought-induced cell wall compositional modifications are relatively minor and produce no negative effect on biomass conversion. This contrasts with the cell wall-related transcriptome, which had a varied range of highly variable genes (HVGs) within four cell wall-related GO categories, depending on the tissues surveyed and time of drought induction. Further, many HVGs had expression changes in which putative impacts were not seen in the physical cell wall or which were in opposition to their putative impacts. Interestingly, most pre-flowering drought-induced cell wall changes occurred in the leaf, with matrix and lignin compositional changes that did not persist after recovery from drought. Most measurable physical post-flowering cell wall changes occurred in the root, affecting mainly polysaccharide composition and cross-linking. This study couples transcriptomics to cell wall chemical analyses of a C4 grass experiencing progressive and differing drought stresses in the field. As such, we can analyze the cell wall-specific response to agriculturally relevant drought stresses on the transcriptomic level and see whether those changes translate to compositional or biomass conversion differences. Our results bolster the conclusion that drought stress does not substantially affect the cell wall composition of specific aerial and subterranean biomass nor impede enzymatic hydrolysis of leaf biomass, a positive result for biorefinery processes. Coupled with previously reported results on the root microbiome and rhizosphere and whole transcriptome analyses of this study, we can formulate and test hypotheses on individual gene candidates’ function in mediating drought stress in the grass cell wall, as demonstrated in sorghum.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Landfalling Droughts: Global Tracking of Moisture Deficits From the Oceans Onto Land

Abstract Droughts threaten food, energy, and water security, causing death and displacement of millions of people and billions of dollars in damages. However, there are still important gaps in the understanding of drought mechanisms and behaviors, inhibiting the accuracy of early‐warning systems designed to protect communities worldwide. We use an object‐tracking algorithm to track clusters of precipitation‐minus‐evaporation moisture deficits across land and ocean areas of the globe from 1981–2018. This analysis reveals a new type of “landfalling drought” that originates over the ocean and “migrates” onto land. We find that 16% of droughts that affected the continents worldwide from 1981–2018 were landfalling droughts. These droughts were significantly larger (220–425%) and more intense (4–30%)—and grew (253–285%) and intensified (9–28%) faster—than droughts that developed solely over the land or ocean. To identify potential underlying mechanisms, we analyze moisture transport associated with landfalling droughts over western North America. We find that landfalling droughts in this region are associated with anomalously anticyclonic atmospheric pressure patterns that reduce moisture fluxes over the Pacific Ocean toward the continent. By advancing understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of droughts, our findings offer the potential to improve seasonal‐scale prediction and long‐term projection of global drought risks.

Herrera‐Estrada, Julio E.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Drought impacts on tree phloem: from cell-level responses to ecological significance

Abstract On-going climate change is increasing the risk of drought stress across large areas worldwide. Such drought events decrease ecosystem productivity and have been increasingly linked to tree mortality. Understanding how trees respond to water shortage is key to predicting the future of ecosystem functions. Phloem is at the core of the tree functions, moving resources such as non-structural carbohydrates, nutrients, and defence and information molecules across the whole plant. Phloem function and ability to transport resources is tightly controlled by the balance of carbon and water fluxes within the tree. As such, drought is expected to impact phloem function by decreasing the amount of available water and new photoassimilates. Yet, the effect of drought on the phloem has received surprisingly little attention in the last decades. Here we review existing knowledge on drought impacts on phloem transport from loading and unloading processes at cellular level to possible effects on long-distance transport and consequences to ecosystems via ecophysiological feedbacks. We also point to new research frontiers that need to be explored to improve our understanding of phloem function under drought. In particular, we show how phloem transport is affected differently by increasing drought intensity, from no response to a slowdown, and explore how severe drought might actually disrupt the phloem transport enough to threaten tree survival. Because transport of resources affects other organisms interacting with the tree, we also review the ecological consequences of phloem response to drought and especially predatory, mutualistic and competitive relations. Finally, as phloem is the main path for carbon from sources to sink, we show how drought can affect biogeochemical cycles through changes in phloem transport. Overall, existing knowledge is consistent with the hypotheses that phloem response to drought matters for understanding tree and ecosystem function. However, future research on a large range of species and ecosystems is urgently needed to gain a comprehensive understanding of the question.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Citrus FRIGIDA cooperates with its interaction partner dehydrin to regulate drought tolerance

SUMMARY Drought is a major environmental stress that severely affects plant growth and crop productivity. FRIGIDA ( FRI ) is a key regulator of flowering time and drought tolerance in model plants. However, little is known regarding its functions in woody plants, including citrus. Thus, we explored the functional role of the citrus FRI ortholog ( CiFRI ) under drought. Drought treatment induced CiFRI expression. CiFRI overexpression enhanced drought tolerance in transgenic Arabidopsis and citrus, while CiFRI suppression increased drought susceptibility in citrus. Moreover, transcriptomic profiling under drought conditions suggested that CiFRI overexpression altered the expression of numerous genes involved in the stress response, hormone biosynthesis, and signal transduction. Mechanistic studies revealed that citrus dehydrin likely protects CiFRI from stress‐induced degradation, thereby enhancing plant drought tolerance. In addition, a citrus brassinazole‐resistant (BZR) transcription factor family member ( CiBZR1 ) directly binds to the CiFRI promoter to activate its expression under drought conditions. CiBZR1 also enhanced drought tolerance in transgenic Arabidopsis and citrus. These findings further our understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying the CiFRI ‐mediated drought stress response in citrus.

Xu, Yuan‐Yuan↗

DOE OSTI2019

Genome-wide transcriptomic analysis of a desert willow, Salix psammophila, reveals the function of hub genes SpMDP1 and SpWRKY33 in drought tolerance

Background: Drought is a major environmental constraint to plant growth, development and productivity. Compared with most willows that are generally susceptible to drought, the desert willow Salix psammophila has extraordinary adaptation to drought stress. However, its molecular basis of drought tolerance is still largely unknown.Results: During polyethylene glycol 6000 (PEG 6000)-simulated drought stress, we found that the osmotic adjustment substances were accumulated and the antioxidant enzyme activities were enhanced in S. psammophila roots. A total of 8172 differentially expressed genes were identified in roots of S. psammophila through RNA-Sequencing. Based on K-means clustering, their expression patterns were classified into nine clusters, which were enriched in several stress-related processes including transcriptional regulation, response to various stresses, cell death, etc. Moreover, 672 transcription factors from 45 gene families were differentially expressed under drought stress. Furthermore, a weighted gene co-expression network was constructed, and eight genes were identified as hub genes. We demonstrated the function of two hub genes, magnesium-dependent phosphatase 1 (SpMDP1) and SpWRKY33, through overexpression in Arabidopsis thaliana. Overexpression of the two hub genes enhanced the drought tolerance in transgenic plants, suggesting that the identification of candidate drought tolerance genes in this study was highly efficient and credible.Conclusions: Our study analyzed the physiological and molecular responses to drought stress in S. psammophila, and these results contribute to dissect the mechanism of drought tolerance of S. psammophila and facilitate identification of critical genes involved in drought tolerance for willow breeding.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities

Drought is fundamentally the result of an extended period of reduced precipitation lasting anywhere from a few weeks to decades and even longer. As such, addressing drought predictability and prediction in a changing climate requires foremost that we make progress on the ability to predict precipitation anomalies on subseasonal and longer time scales. From the perspective of the users of drought forecasts and information, drought is however most directly viewed through its impacts (e.g., on soil moisture, streamflow, crop yields). As such, the question of the predictability of drought must extend to those quantities as well. In order to make progress on these issues, the WCRP drought information group (DIG), with the support of WCRP, the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, the La Caixa Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation, has organized a workshop to focus on: 1. User requirements for drought prediction information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 2. Current understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of drought on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 3. Current drought prediction/projection capabilities on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 4. Advancing regional drought prediction capabilities for variables and scales most relevant to user needs on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales. This introductory talk provides an overview of these goals, and outlines the occurrence and mechanisms of drought world-wide.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

NASA NTRS2012

An Overview of the NOAA Drought Task Force

The charge of the NOAA Drought Task Force is to coordinate and facilitate the various MAPP-funded research efforts with the overall goal of achieving significant advances in understanding and in the ability to monitor and predict drought over North America. In order to achieve this, the task force has developed a Drought Test-bed that individual research groups can use to test/evaluate methods and ideas. Central to this is a focus on three high profile North American droughts (1998-2004 western US drought, 2006-2007 SE US drought, 2011- current Tex-Mex drought) to facilitate collaboration among projects, including the development of metrics to assess the quality of monitoring and prediction products, and the development of an experimental drought monitoring and prediction system that incorporates and assesses recent advances. This talk will review the progress and plans of the task force, including efforts to help advance official national drought products, and the development of early warning systems by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). Coordination with other relevant national and international efforts such as the emerging NMME capabilities and the international effort to develop a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) will be discussed.

Schubert, S.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Geospatial Cluster Analysis of the State, Duration and Severity of Drought Over Paraíba State, Northeastern Brazil

Droughts threaten water resources, agriculture, socio-economic activities and the population at the global and regional level, so identifying areas with homogeneous drought behaviors is an important consideration in improving the management of water resources. The objective of this study is to identify homogenous zones over Paraíba State in relation to the state, duration and severity of droughts that have occurred over the last 20 years (1998–2017) using hierarchical cluster analysis based on both gauge-measured and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimated rainfall data (TMPA 3B42). The drought series were calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on eight time scales and were grouped according to drought state, duration and severity time series. The integrated results of state, duration and severity of droughts indicate that there is a basis for dividing Paraíba State into two major regions (a) Zone I, formed by Mata Paraibana and Agreste Paraibano, and (b) Zone II, composed by Borborema and Sertão Paraibano. This division is evident when assessing short-term droughts, but in the case of long-term droughts, Paraíba State has a high similarity in terms of drought state, duration, and severity. Factors such as proximity to the ocean, active climatic systems, and the local relief configuration were identified as influencing the drought regime. Finally, it is concluded that TMPA rainfall estimates represent a valuable source of data to regionalize and identify drought patterns over this part of Brazil and that other studies of this type should be carried out to monitor these phenomena based on other satellite-based rainfall data, including the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM).

SPI↗

NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Spatial Drought Propagation Potential in North America Using Complex Network Theory

Droughts have a dominant three-dimensional (3-D) spatiotemporal structure typically spanning hundreds of kilometers and often lasting for months to years. Here, we introduced a novel framework to explore the 3-D structure of the evolution of droughts based on network theory concepts. The proposed framework is applied to identify critical source regions responsible for large-scale drought onsets during 1901–2014 for the North American continent using the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI). We built a spatial network connecting the drought onset timings for the North American continent. Using a spatially weighted network partitioning algorithm, the whole continent is then classified into regional spatial drought networks (RSN), where droughts are more likely to propagate within these regional systems. Finally, a customized network metric was applied to identify locations (source regions) where the drought onsets further propagate to other areas within the regional spatial network. Our results indicated that the West coast, Texas coastal region, and Southeastern Arkansas as major source regions through which atmospheric drought propagates to Western, South Central, and Eastern North America. The formation of drought source regions are due to presence of high pressure ridges and anomalous wind patterns. Furthermore, our results indicate that the drought propagation from these source regions may be due to inadequate moisture transport. The proposed framework can help to develop an early warning detection system for droughts and other spatially extensive extreme events such as heatwaves and floods.

Goutam Konapala↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distinct Preflowering Drought Tolerance Strategies of Sorghum bicolor Genotype RTx430 Revealed by Subcellular Protein Profiling

Drought is the largest stress affecting agricultural crops, resulting in substantial reductions in yield. Plant adaptation to water stress is a complex trait involving changes in hormone signaling, physiology, and morphology. Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) is a C4 cereal grass; it is an agricultural staple, and it is particularly drought-tolerant. To better understand drought adaptation strategies, we compared the cytosolic- and organelle-enriched protein profiles of leaves from two Sorghum bicolor genotypes, RTx430 and BTx642, with differing preflowering drought tolerances after 8 weeks of growth under water limitation in the field. In agreement with previous findings, we observed significant drought-induced changes in the abundance of multiple heat shock proteins and dehydrins in both genotypes. Interestingly, our data suggest a larger genotype-specific drought response in protein profiles of organelles, while cytosolic responses are largely similar between genotypes. Organelle-enriched proteins whose abundance significantly changed exclusively in the preflowering drought-tolerant genotype RTx430 upon drought stress suggest multiple mechanisms of drought tolerance. These include an RTx430-specific change in proteins associated with ABA metabolism and signal transduction, Rubisco activation, reactive oxygen species scavenging, flowering time regulation, and epicuticular wax production. We discuss the current understanding of these processes in relation to drought tolerance and their potential implications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Drought onset mechanisms revealed by satellite solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence: Insights from two contrasting extreme events

This study uses the droughts of 2011 in Texas and 2012 over the central Great Plains as case studies to explore the potential of satellite-observed solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) for monitoring drought dynamics. We find that the spatial patterns of negative SIF anomalies from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 (GOME-2) closely resembled drought intensity maps from the U.S. Drought Monitor for both events. The drought-induced suppression of SIF occurred throughout 2011 but was exacerbated in summer in the Texas drought. This event was characterized by a persistent depletion of root zone soil moisture caused by yearlong below-normal precipitation. In contrast, for the central Great Plains drought, warmer temperatures and relatively normal precipitation boosted SIF in the spring of 2012; however, a sudden drop in precipitation coupled with unusually high temperatures rapidly depleted soil moisture through evapotranspiration, leading to a rapid onset of drought in early summer. Accordingly, SIF reversed from above to below normal. For both regions, the GOME-2 SIF anomalies were significantly correlated with those of root zone soil moisture, indicating that the former can potentially be used as proxy of the latter for monitoring agricultural droughts with different onset mechanisms. Further analyses indicate that the contrasting dynamics of SIF during these two extreme events were caused by changes in both fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation fPAR and fluorescence yield, suggesting that satellite SIF is sensitive to both structural and physiological/biochemical variations of vegetation. Here, we conclude that the emerging satellite SIF has excellent potential for dynamic drought monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Drought legacies mediated by trait trade‐offs in soil microbiomes

Abstract Soil microbiomes play a key role in driving biogeochemical cycles of the Earth system. As drought frequency and intensity increase due to climate change, soil microbes and the processes they control will be impacted. Even after a drought ends, microbiomes and other systems take time to recover and may display a memory of previous climate conditions. Still, the mechanisms involved in these legacy effects remain unclear, making it difficult to predict climate and biogeochemical rates in the future. Here, we used a trait‐based microbiome model (DEMENTpy) to implement trade‐off‐mediated mechanisms that may lead to drought legacy effects on litter decomposition. Trade‐offs were assumed to follow the Y‐A‐S framework that defines three primary life‐history strategies of microorganisms: high growth Yield, resource Acquisition, and Stress tolerance. We represented cellular trade‐offs between osmolytes required for drought tolerance and investment in enzymes involved in litter decomposition. Simulations were run under varying levels of drought severity and dispersal. With high levels of dispersal, no legacy effects were predicted by DEMENTpy following drought. With limited dispersal, severe drought resulted in a persistent legacy of altered community‐level traits and reduced litter decomposition. Moderate drought resulted in a transient legacy that disappeared after two years, consistent with recent empirical observations in Southern California ecosystems. These results imply that greater movement along the trade‐off between enzyme investment and osmolyte production resulted in stronger legacy effects. More generally, factors that shift the position of a microbiome in YAS space may alter the legacy outcome following drought. Our trait‐based modeling study motivates additional empirical measurements to quantify YAS traits and trade‐offs that are needed to make accurate predictions of soil microbiome resilience and functioning. Also, our study illustrates an emerging approach for representing trait trade‐offs in microbiomes and vegetation that dictate ecosystem responses to drought and other environmental perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

A probabilistic drought forecasting framework: A combined dynamical and statistical approach

In order to improve drought forecasting skill, this study develops a probabilistic drought forecasting framework comprised of dynamical and statistical modeling components. The novelty of this study is to seek the use of data assimilation to quantify initial condition uncertainty with the Monte Carlo ensemble members, rather than relying entirely on the hydrologic model or land surface model to generate a single deterministic initial condition, as currently implemented in the operational drought forecasting systems. Next, the initial condition uncertainty is quantified through data assimilation and coupled with a newly developed probabilistic drought forecasting model using a copula function. The initial condition at each forecast start date are sampled from the data assimilation ensembles for forecast initialization. Finally, seasonal drought forecasting products are generated with the updated initial conditions. This study introduces the theory behind the proposed drought forecasting system, with an application in Columbia River Basin, Pacific Northwest, United States. Results from both synthetic and real case studies suggest that the proposed drought forecasting system significantly improves the seasonal drought forecasting skills and can facilitate the state drought preparation and declaration, at least three months before the official state drought declaration.

data assimilation↗

DOE OSTI2018

Toward improving drought monitoring using the remotely sensed soil moisture assimilation: A parallel particle filtering framework

Drought is the costliest hazard among all natural disasters. Despite the significant improvements in drought modeling over the last decade, accurate provisions of drought conditions in a timely manner is still one of the major research challenges. In order to improve the current drought monitoring skills, this study presents a land data assimilation system by merging the remotely sensed surface soil moisture with the use of recently developed particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) method. To cope with the computational complexity, a modular parallel particle filtering framework (PPFF) is developed which allows a large ensemble size in PMCMC applications. The implementation of the proposed system is demonstrated with the 2012 summer flash drought case study over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Results from both synthetic and real case studies suggest that the land data assimilation system significantly improves the soil moisture predictions and the drought monitoring skills. Compared with the U.S. Drought Monitoring (USDM), the land data assimilation can better capture the drought onset on May 2012 and the drought severity in June and July 2012. Finally, this study recommends that the proposed land data assimilation system under a high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure can better facilitate the drought preparation and response actions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Studying drought-induced forest mortality using high spatiotemporal resolution evapotranspiration data from thermal satellite imaging

Drought can have pervasive and wide-spread impacts to forest health, as evidenced in several severe events occurring over the recent decades. Extensive forest die-off due to drought can impair the ecological functioning of forests, impacting habitat, water yield and quality from forested lands, and altering forest fire dynamics and intensity. Satellite remote sensing provides an effective means for detecting and monitoring spatial patterns of forest mortality over large areas, exploiting free and open long-term image archives available at a range in spatial and temporal resolutions. While remotely sensed surface reflectances and vegetation indices have been widely used to study optical response of forest canopies to drought events, retrievals of evapotranspiration (ET) derived from thermal satellite imagery – particularly at resolutions approaching crown scale - can provide insights into cumulative tree stresses that can incite disease and trigger mortality. In this study, we applied a multi-sensor satellite data fusion approach to estimate daily 30-m resolution ET and an associated Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) to study drought-induced mortality in a temperate forest at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site, located in the central United States. The study covered the period from 2010 to 2014, including an exceptional drought year of 2012. Modeled ET agreed well with eddy flux measurements from the MOFLUX tower, with average monthly relative errors of 15%. Plot-scale ESI, describing temporal anomalies in the ratio of actual-to-reference ET, was used as an index of relative forest health to investigate relationships between forest mortality and drought severity. ESI showed good agreement with observed predawn leaf water potential, especially during the drought year. Furthermore, plot-scale ESI was also correlated with the subsequent year's tree mortality, suggesting the importance of considering the forest health condition prior to drought when studying drought-induced forest impacts. This study demonstrates the utility of multi-year ET remote sensing data at the stand or plot scale as an indicator of forest health and as a predictor of future mortality due to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China

Drought risk analysis is essential for regional water resource management. In this study, the probabilistic relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in Beijing, China, was calculated under three different precipitation conditions (precipitation equal to, greater than, or less than a threshold) based on copulas. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated based on monthly total precipitation and monthly mean temperature data. The trends and variations in the SPEI were analysed using Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend tests with a running approach. The results of the HHT and MK test indicated a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI. The copula-based conditional probability indicated that the probability of meteorological drought decreased as monthly precipitation increased and that 10 mm can be regarded as the threshold for triggering extreme drought. From a quantitative perspective, when R ≤ mm, the probabilities of moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 22.1%, 18%, and 13.6%, respectively. This conditional probability distribution not only revealed the occurrence of meteorological drought in Beijing but also provided a quantitative way to analyse the probability of drought under different precipitation conditions. Furthermore, the results provide a useful reference for future drought prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Final report: Hydraulic mechanisms of survival and mortality during drought in pinon-juniper woodlands of southwestern USA

The goal of this project was to use rainfall manipulation of an intact pinon-juniper woodland in central New Mexico to understand the mechanisms that control the response of these species to extremes of rainfall. Experimental plots were installed in a pinon-juniper woodland at the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge and treatments were imposed in August 2007. Treatments consisted of 1) a Drought treatment imposed by diverting approximately 45% of precipitation away from the plot, 2) and Irrigation treatment imposed by applying six 19 mm simulated rainfall events at regular intervals during the growing season, 3) a Cover Control treatment designed to assess the impact of the plastic troughs constructed on Drought plots without imposing the rainfall diversion, and 4) an untreated control that received no modification. Extensive pinon mortality was observed beginning one year after the start of drought treatment on hillslope plots, while a third drought plot on deeper soils did not exhibit pinon mortality until the fifth year of drought treatment. Pinon mortality occurred in the context of high levels of bark beetle activity, motivating the installation of two additional plots in 2010: a control plot and a drought plot built to the same standards as the original treatments but with bark beetle control maintained by pesticide application to the bole of target trees from 2010 - 2016. Although the drought treatment created similar conditions to those experienced on hillslope drought plots, the drought plot with bark beetle control exhibited no pinon mortality for 5 years even in the presence of high regional bark beetle activity in 2012/13. One of the goals of the research was to identify the mechanism of drought-induced mortality in pinon and juniper: 1) mortality due to catastrophic failure of water transport through plant tissues (hydraulic failure), 2) mortality due to limitations in carbon uptake (carbon starvation) and 3) either of the first two mechanisms with the involvement of bark beetles and other pathogens. Data from this study implicate the interaction of hydraulic failure and carbon limitations with bark beetles playing a pivotal role in influencing the timing of mortality. The uncommon nature of this kind of large scale manipulative experiment has motivated widespread use of the data from the various treatments in modeling exercises with several collaborative groups.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗