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NASA NTRS2014

Introducing Multisensor Satellite Radiance-Based Evaluation for Regional Earth System Modeling

Earth System modeling has become more complex, and its evaluation using satellite data has also become more difficult due to model and data diversity. Therefore, the fundamental methodology of using satellite direct measurements with instrumental simulators should be addressed especially for modeling community members lacking a solid background of radiative transfer and scattering theory. This manuscript introduces principles of multisatellite, multisensor radiance-based evaluation methods for a fully coupled regional Earth System model: NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model. We use a NU-WRF case study simulation over West Africa as an example of evaluating aerosol-cloud-precipitation-land processes with various satellite observations. NU-WRF-simulated geophysical parameters are converted to the satellite-observable raw radiance and backscatter under nearly consistent physics assumptions via the multisensor satellite simulator, the Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit. We present varied examples of simple yet robust methods that characterize forecast errors and model physics biases through the spatial and statistical interpretation of various satellite raw signals: infrared brightness temperature (Tb) for surface skin temperature and cloud top temperature, microwave Tb for precipitation ice and surface flooding, and radar and lidar backscatter for aerosol-cloud profiling simultaneously. Because raw satellite signals integrate many sources of geophysical information, we demonstrate user-defined thresholds and a simple statistical process to facilitate evaluations, including the infrared-microwave-based cloud types and lidar/radar-based profile classifications.

Planetary Boundary Layer↗

NASA NTRS2016

Detection of Northern Hemisphere Transient Baroclinic Eddies at Gale Crater Mars

The Rover Environmental Monitoring Station (REMS) on the Mars Science Laboratory’s (MSL) Curiosity rover has been operating in Gale Crater Mars (4.5°S, 137.4°E) for over 2 Mars years. Analysis of its pressure data, which have a precision of approximately 0.2 Pa (see Haberle et al., 2014; Harri et al., 2014), reveal temporal oscillations in its seasonally de-trended daily averaged pressures at some seasons with 2-5 Pa amplitudes that have periods similar to those observed at the Viking Lander 2 (VL-2) site (48.3°N, 134.0°E) several decades ago. As illustrated in Fig 1 there are clear peaks in the variance at a frequency f approximately 0.45 and 0.06 per sol for the fall season of Mars Year (MY) 31, and at f approximately 0.15 and 0.06 per sol for MY 32. These frequencies correspond to periods of 2.2, 6.7, and 16.7 sols, and are very similar to those observed at VL-2 (Fig 2, and see Barnes, 1980). Since orbital imaging data show dust frontal systems associated with eastward traveling baroclinic eddies that occasionally cross the equator (Wang et al., 2003), these findings suggest that MSL may be seeing their signature in its pressure data. To make this case we show that (a) the spectral peaks in the MSL are not only similar to those at VL-2, they have the same seasonal variation, (b) at least for some seasons the peaks are statistically significant and not likely due to random noise in the data, and (c) Global Circulation Model (GCM) results from the Ames GCM support this interpretation.

The Rover Environmental Monitoring Station (REMS)↗

NASA NTRS1994

Physiological time-series analysis: what does regularity quantify?

Approximate entropy (ApEn) is a recently developed statistic quantifying regularity and complexity that appears to have potential application to a wide variety of physiological and clinical time-series data. The focus here is to provide a better understanding of ApEn to facilitate its proper utilization, application, and interpretation. After giving the formal mathematical description of ApEn, we provide a multistep description of the algorithm as applied to two contrasting clinical heart rate data sets. We discuss algorithm implementation and interpretation and introduce a general mathematical hypothesis of the dynamics of a wide class of diseases, indicating the utility of ApEn to test this hypothesis. We indicate the relationship of ApEn to variability measures, the Fourier spectrum, and algorithms motivated by study of chaotic dynamics. We discuss further mathematical properties of ApEn, including the choice of input parameters, statistical issues, and modeling considerations, and we conclude with a section on caveats to ensure correct ApEn utilization.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

NASA NTRS1974

Machine-aided analysis of land use - Landform relations from ERTS-1 MSS imagery, Sand Hills Region, Nebraska

Machine-aided analysis of ERTS-1 MSS data obtained over the Sand Hills of Nebraska indicates that reasonably accurate soils maps can be produced automatically. An interpretation of spectral class spatial distribution and statistical character allows confident assignment of familiar soil and cover type names to computer classes. Resultant computer classification maps are displayed on a television screen or printer image. Correlation between computer maps and the USDA soils map of the same area is high. Geographic distribution of classes of interest can be accentuated by automatic methods. Percentages of cover type for any classified area also can be obtained. Interpretation of machine maps yields information concerning land use, physiographic, soil, and hydrologic patterns of the region.

Sinnock, S.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The Role of Remote Sensing in Assessing Forest Biomass in Appalachian South Carolina

Information is presented on the use of color infrared aerial photographs and ground sampling methods to quantify standing forest biomass in Appalachian South Carolina. Local tree biomass equations are given and subsequent evaluation of stand density and size classes using remote sensing methods is presented. Methods of terrain analysis, environmental hazard rating, and subsequent determination of accessibility of forest biomass are discussed. Computer-based statistical analyses are used to expand individual cover-type specific ground sample data to area-wide cover type inventory figures based on aerial photographic interpretation and area measurement. Forest biomass data are presented for the study area in terms of discriminant size classes, merchantability limits, accessibility (as related to terrain and yield/harvest constraints), and potential environmental impact of harvest.

Shain, W.↗

NASA NTRS2006

What Do Our Users Want? Perspectives on Understanding and Meeting User Needs for Multi-Mission Data Services

The Sun-Earth Connection Active Archive (SECAA) project of NASA's Space Physics Data Facility operates a range of unique and heavily used multi-mission data services in support of the large-scale science objectives of the Great Observatory, including services such as CDAWeb, the CDAWeb Plus client, SSCWeb, OMNIweb and the CDF data format. In developing and operating these services, we have encountered and continue to struggle with a wide range of issues such as balancing scope and functionality with simplicity and ease of use, understanding the effectiveness of our choices and identifying areas most important for further improvement. In this paper, we will review our key services and then discuss some of our observations and new approaches to understanding and meeting user data service requirements. Some observations are obvious but may still have substantial implications; e.g. functionality without information content is of little user interest, which has led to our recent emphasis on development of web services interfaces, so the content and functionality we already serve is readily and fully available as a building block for new services. Some observations require careful design and tradeoffs; e.g. users will complain when they are offered interfaces with limited options but users are also easily intimidated and become lost when offered extensive options for customization. Some observations remain highly challenging; e.g. a comprehensive multi-mission, multi-source view of all data and services available easily produces a daunting list, but a more selective view can easily lead users to overlook available and relevant data. It is often difficult to obtain and meaningfully interpret measures of true productive usage and overall user satisfaction, even with a variety of techniques including statistics, citations, case studies, user feedback and advisory committees. Most of these issues will apply to and may even be more acute for distributed implementation architectures.

McGuire, Robert E.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Application of satellite data to tropic/subtropic moisture coupling

The objective is to develop analysis tools for use of satellite data to interpret synoptic-scale systems in data-void regions. Interim goals are to: (1) quantify the synoptic information content of satellite data; and (2) utilize these data in the diagnosis of moisture bursts in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Researchers developed and implemented a statistical procedure for using TIROS N microwave data to infer infrared channel data for overcast conditions; they used the same procedure for deducing full TIROS N channel radiance profiles from NOAA 5 VTPR channel data over regions where the TIROS N data are missing. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of twice-daily channel radiance fields over the tropical eastern Pacific was completed. The vertically oriented eigenfunctions were interpreted in terms of typical meteorological events. The horizontal distribution of the eigenfunction amplitudes relates these meteorological signals to moisture bursts. A pair of moisture burst climatologies is complete: one of four years using infrared imagery (including the highly anomalous 1982 to 83 cold season); the other implementing 850 to 200 mb wind analyses in conjunction with GOES imagery. A number of different evaluations of the synoptic evolution of moisture fields (enhanced infrared imagery, moisture channel data, FGGE humidity analysis, and in situ station and sounding observations) are compared. All have limitations; all can be utilized together; all together are still less than adequate in the tropical Pacific.

Mcguirk, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Spectra Information from Multiple Independent Astrophysics Data Sets

The Maximum Likelihood (ML) statistical theory required to estimate spectra information from an arbitrary number of astrophysics data sets produced by vastly different science instruments is developed in this paper. This theory and its successful implementation will facilitate the interpretation of spectral information from multiple astrophysics missions and thereby permit the derivation of superior spectral information based on the combination of data sets. The procedure is of significant value to both existing data sets and those to be produced by future astrophysics missions consisting of two or more detectors by allowing instrument developers to optimize each detector's design parameters through simulation studies in order to design and build complementary detectors that will maximize the precision with which the science objectives may be obtained. The benefits of this ML theory and its application is measured in terms of the reduction of the statistical errors (standard deviations) of the spectra information using the multiple data sets in concert as compared to the statistical errors of the spectra information when the data sets are considered separately, as well as any biases resulting from poor statistics in one or more of the individual data sets that might be reduced when the data sets are combined.

Howell, Leonard W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1976

A computer analysis of ERTS data of the Lake Gregory area of South Australia with particular emphasis on its role in terrain classification for engineering

A digital computer and multivariate statistical techniques were used to analyze 4-band multispectral data. A representation of the original data for each of the four bands allows a certain degree of terrain interpretation; however, variations in appearance of sites within and between bands, without additional criteria for deciding which representation should be preferred, create difficulties for classification. Investigation of the video data groups produced by principal components analysis and cluster analysis techniques shows that effective correlations with classifications of terrain produced by conventional methods could be carried out. The analyses also highlighted underlying relationships between the various elements. The approach used allows large areas (185 cm by 185 cm) to be classified into fundamental units within a matter of hours and can be applied to those parts of the Earth where facilities for conventional studies are poor or lacking.

Lodwick, G. D.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Measurements on the satellite-mobile channel at L and S bands

An experiment is described in which measurements are made on the satellite-mobile channel at L and S bands. A light aircraft carrying a c.w. beacon is flown at elevation angles of 40, 60 and 80 degrees to a mobile receiver. The signal strength at the mobile is recorded in open, urban, suburban and tree shadowed environments. This data is then analyzed to produce statistics for the channel with respect to frequency, elevation angle, and environment. Results are presented together with a brief discussion, suggested interpretation, and conclusion.

Smith, H.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Interpretation of gamma-ray burst source count statistics

Ever since the discovery of gamma-ray bursts, the so-called log N-log S relation has been used for determination of their distances and distribution. This task has not been straightforward because of varying thresholds for the detection of bursts. Most of the current analyses of these data are couched in terms of ambiguous distributions, such as the distribution of Cp/Clim, the ratio of peak to threshold photon count rates, or the distribution of V/Vmax = (Cp/Clim) exp -3/2. It is shown that these distributions are not always a true reflection of the log N-log S relation. Some kind of deconvolution is required for obtaining the true log N-log S. Therefore, care is required in the interpretation of results of such analyses. A new method of analysis of these data is described, whereby the bivariate distribution of Cp and Clim is obtained directly from the data.

Petrosian, Vahe↗

DOE OSTI2024

MicroBooNE investigations on the photon interpretation of the MiniBooNE low energy excess

The MicroBooNE experiment is a liquid argon time projection chamber with 85-ton active volume at Fermilab, operated from 2015 to 2020 to collect neutrino data from Fermilab's Booster Neutrino Beam. One of MicroBooNE's physics goals is to investigate possible explanations of the low-energy excess observed by the MiniBooNE experiment in $\nu_{\mu}\rightarrow \nu_{e}$ neutrino oscillation measurements. MicroBooNE has performed searches to test hypothetical interpretations of the MiniBooNE low-energy excess, including the underestimation of the photon background or instrinic $\nu_{e}$ background. This thesis presents MicroBooNE's searches for two neutral current (NC) single-photon production processes that contribute to the photon background of the MiniBooNE measurement: NC $\Delta$ resonance production followed by $\Delta$ radiative decay: $\Delta \rightarrow N\gamma$, and NC coherent single-photon production. Both searches take advantage of boosted decision trees to yield efficient background rejection, and a high-statistic NC $\pi^0$ measurement to constrain dominant background, and make use of MicroBooNE's first three years of data. The NC $\Delta \rightarrow N\gamma$ measurement yielded a bound on the $\Delta$ radiative decay process at 2.3 times the predicted nominal rate at 90\% confidence level(C.L.), disfavoring a candidate photon interpretation of the MiniBooNE low-energy excess as a factor of 3.18 times the nominal NC Δ radiative decay rate at the 94.8\% C.L. The NC coherent single photon measurement leads to the world's first experimental limit on the cross-section of this process below 1 GeV, of $1.49 \times 10^{-41} \text{cm}^2$ at 90\% C.L., corresponding to 24.0 times the nominal prediction.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗

NASA NTRS1983

Procedure for generating ground wind environments for Shuttle liftoff studies

Ground-wind environments for Monte Carlo simulations of Space Shuttle liftoff at KSC are developed. Input parameters include randomly selected 18.3-m-altitude peak wind speed (from which mean wind profile and turbulence intensity are calculated), randomly selected mean wind direction, and longitudinal and lateral turbulence components obtained from the Shuttle-simulation turbulence tapes (SSTT: Tatom et al., 1982). The steps in the simulation of turbulence time histories and horizontal wind fields are listed. It is found that separate statistical analysis of each hour-season pair, applying data on the time fraction of occurrence of peak winds and wind directions at KSC, will be necessary to interpret simulation results consistently.

Fichtl, G. H.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Bayesian learning

In 1983 and 1984, the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) detected 5,425 stellar objects and measured their infrared spectra. In 1987 a program called AUTOCLASS used Bayesian inference methods to discover the classes present in these data and determine the most probable class of each object, revealing unknown phenomena in astronomy. AUTOCLASS has rekindled the old debate on the suitability of Bayesian methods, which are computationally intensive, interpret probabilities as plausibility measures rather than frequencies, and appear to depend on a subjective assessment of the probability of a hypothesis before the data were collected. Modern statistical methods have, however, recently been shown to also depend on subjective elements. These debates bring into question the whole tradition of scientific objectivity and offer scientists a new way to take responsibility for their findings and conclusions.

Denning, Peter J.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Formation and Combustion of Unconfined Drop Clusters in Microgravity

Single-drop and droplet array studies have become common methods to isolate and investigate the effects of any of the complexities that enter into the drop combustion process. Microgravity environments are required to allow larger drops to be studied while minimizing or eliminating the confounding effects of buoyancy. Based on the results from current isolated drop, drop array, and spray studies funded through the Microgravity Science and Applications Division, it has become clear that even with the effects of buoyancy removed, the extrapolation of results from droplet array studies to spray flames is difficult. The problem occurs because even the simplest spray systems introduce complexities of multi-disperse drop sizes and drop-drop interactions, coupled with more complicated fluid dynamics. Not only do these features make the interpretation of experimental data difficult, they also make the problem very difficult to analyze computationally. Group combustion models, in which the interaction between droplets is treated on a statistical manner, have become a popular method to investigate the behavior of large numbers of interacting droplets, particularly through the work of Ryan et al. and Bellan and co-workers. While these models idealize the actual spray systems to a point where they can be treated computationally, the experimental analogy to these models is difficult to achieve because it requires the formation and Combustion of drop clusters without the effects of buoyancy. Therefore, even though these models have provided useful and insightful information, the verification of the results by direct comparison with experimental data is still lacking.

Liu, S.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Interrelationships Between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, Binomial, Logit, and Bayes' Rule Probability of Detection Methodologies

Unknown risks are introduced into failure critical systems when probability of detection (POD) capabilities are accepted without a complete understanding of the statistical method applied and the interpretation of the statistical results. The presence of this risk in the nondestructive evaluation (NDE) community is revealed in common statements about POD. These statements are often interpreted in a variety of ways and therefore, the very existence of the statements identifies the need for a more comprehensive understanding of POD methodologies. Statistical methodologies have data requirements to be met, procedures to be followed, and requirements for validation or demonstration of adequacy of the POD estimates. Risks are further enhanced due to the wide range of statistical methodologies used for determining the POD capability. Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' rule POD methodologies are widely used in determining POD capability. This work focuses on Hit-Miss data to reveal the framework of the interrelationships between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' Rule methodologies as they are applied to POD. Knowledge of these interrelationships leads to an intuitive and global understanding of the statistical data, procedural and validation requirements for establishing credible POD estimates.

Generazio, Edward R.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Identification of the Hard X-Ray Source Dominating the E>25 keV Emission of the Nearby Galaxy M31

We report the identification of a bright hard X-ray source dominating the M31 bulge above 25 keV from a simultaneous NuSTAR-Swift observation. We find that this source is the counterpart to Swift J0042.6+4112, which was previously detected in the Swift BAT All-sky Hard X-ray Survey. This Swift BAT source had been suggested to be the combined emission from a number of point sources; our new observations have identified a single X-ray source from 0.5 to 50 keV as the counterpart for the first time. In the 0.5-10 keV band, the source had been classified as an X-ray Binary candidate in various Chandra and XMM-Newton studies; however, since it was not clearly associated with Swift J0042.6+4112, the previous E<10 keV observations did not generate much attention. This source has a spectrum with a soft X-ray excess (kT ∼ 0.2 keV) plus a hard spectrum with a power law of G ~ 1 and a cutoff around 15-20 keV, typical of the spectral characteristics of accreting pulsars. Unfortunately, any potential pulsation was undetected in the NuSTAR data, possibly due to insufficient photon statistics. The existing deep HST images exclude high-mass (>3 solar mass) donors at the location of this source. The best interpretation for the nature of this source is an X-ray pulsar with an intermediate-mass (<3 solar mass) companion or a symbiotic X-ray binary. We discuss other possibilities in more detail.

Yukita, M.↗