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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Granger causal inference for climate change attribution

Abstract Climate change detection and attribution (D&A) is concerned with determining the extent to which anthropogenic activities have influenced specific aspects of the global climate system. D&A fits within the broader field of causal inference, the collection of statistical methods that identify cause and effect relationships. There are a wide variety of methods for making attribution statements, each of which require different types of input data and focus on different types of weather and climate events and each of which are conditional to varying extents. Some methods are based on Pearl causality (direct experimental interference) while others leverage Granger (predictive) causality, and the causal framing provides important context for how the resulting attribution conclusion should be interpreted. However, while Granger-causal attribution analyses have become more common, there is no clear statement of their strengths and weaknesses relative to Pearl-causal attribution and no clear consensus on where and when Granger-causal perspectives are appropriate. In this prospective paper, we provide a formal definition for Granger-based approaches to trend and event attribution and a clear comparison with more traditional methods for assessing the human influence on extreme weather and climate events. Broadly speaking, Granger-causal attribution statements can be constructed quickly from observations and do not require computationally-intesive dynamical experiments. These analyses also enable rapid attribution, which is useful in the aftermath of a severe weather event, and provide multiple lines of evidence for anthropogenic climate change when paired with Pearl-causal attribution. Confidence in attribution statements is increased when different methodologies arrive at similar conclusions. Moving forward, we encourage the D&A community to embrace hybrid approaches to climate change attribution that leverage the strengths of both Granger and Pearl causality.

Risser, Mark D. (ORCID:0000000319561783)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification of fireball features extracted from nuclear test films using computer vision

Films from the US’s historic nuclear testing era comprise the only extensive collection of imagery depicting high-yield detonations. These films offer unique insights into the characteristics of flows occurring on scales that are difficult to replicate experimentally, and they are a valuable source of data for the validation of models used to describe nuclear detonations. In recent work, we implemented modern computer vision and machine learning techniques to extract features of the fireball following nuclear detonation. With a training dataset of fireball films, we fine-tuned a You Only Look Once 11 (YOLO11) model to detect and track the fireball. Applied to a video, the outer bounding box produced in each frame by YOLO11 is used as an input prompt to Meta’s Segment Anything Model 2 (SAM2), which is shown to accurately predict the boundary of the fireball over time with high resolution. These state-of-the-art computer vision foundation models exhibit impressive visual accuracy in their results but lack an output of values that robustly quantify uncertainty in scientific applications. In this paper, we develop procedures for uncertainty quantification of extracted fireball features. We outline the application of a parallel attention mechanism to calculate uncertainty ranges that complement and better pose model validation data. This higher quality fireball validation data may serve to improve prognostic models describing nuclear detonations in support of nuclear forensic and emergency response activities.

Khristy, Joel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000209963060)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate Nowcasting

The climate is changing so rapidly that climatologies based on historical statistics cannot reliably capture the current risk of extreme weather events hazardous to society. Decision relevant projections of weather extreme probability over the next 10–15 years are needed to enable adaptation and resilience in the face of this evolving risk. Current weather forecasts/predictions and long-term climate projections for decades into the future are inadequate for providing this information to stakeholders that need it, targeting forecast horizons either too short or too far into the future. We argue that a new approach is needed: climate nowcasting. Climate nowcasting would focus on user-inspired extreme metrics over the next 10–15 year time frame, targeting specific impacts and locations down to a local scale, by engaging with stakeholders to understand their needs and provide information in a format relevant for decision making. Importantly, climate nowcasting will not consist of a single approach or data set, involving rather data fusion from different sources of information: simulations, observations and data driven methods, likely through different weights depending on the metric of interest. Predictions must be accompanied by serious engagement with stakeholders facing climate risks, and clearly present uncertainties and limitations of any prediction. Such a vision is very different from how typical climate or weather forecasts are applied today.

Gettelman, Andrew↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intrinsic alignment demographics for next-generation lensing: Revealing galaxy property trends with DESI Y1 direct measurements

We present direct measurements of the intrinsic alignments (IA) of over 2 million spectroscopic galaxies using DESI Data Release 1 and imaging from four lensing surveys: DES, HSC, KiDS, and SDSS. In this uniquely data-rich regime, we take initial steps towards a more tailored IA modelling approach by building a library of IA measurements across colour, luminosity, stellar mass, and redshift. We map the dependence between galaxy type -- in terms of rest-frame colour, strength of the 4000 Angstrom break, and specific star formation rate -- and IA amplitude; the bluest galaxies have an alignment consistent with zero, across low ($0.05

Siegel, J. [Princeton U.]↗
DOE OSTI2024

High‐speed 4‐dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy using compressive sensing techniques

Abstract Here we show that compressive sensing allows 4‐dimensional (4‐D) STEM data to be obtained and accurately reconstructed with both high‐speed and reduced electron fluence. The methodology needed to achieve these results compared to conventional 4‐D approaches requires only that a random subset of probe locations is acquired from the typical regular scanning grid, which immediately generates both higher speed and the lower fluence experimentally. We also consider downsampling of the detector, showing that oversampling is inherent within convergent beam electron diffraction (CBED) patterns and that detector downsampling does not reduce precision but allows faster experimental data acquisition. Analysis of an experimental atomic resolution yttrium silicide dataset shows that it is possible to recover over 25 dB peak signal‐to‐noise ratio in the recovered phase using 0.3% of the total data. Lay abstract : Four‐dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy (4‐D STEM) is a powerful technique for characterizing complex nanoscale structures. In this method, a convergent beam electron diffraction pattern (CBED) is acquired at each probe location during the scan of the sample. This means that a 2‐dimensional signal is acquired at each 2‐D probe location, equating to a 4‐D dataset. Despite the recent development of fast direct electron detectors, some capable of 100kHz frame rates, the limiting factor for 4‐D STEM is acquisition times in the majority of cases, where cameras will typically operate on the order of 2kHz. This means that a raster scan containing 256^2 probe locations can take on the order of 30s, approximately 100‐1000 times longer than a conventional STEM imaging technique using monolithic radial detectors. As a result, 4‐D STEM acquisitions can be subject to adverse effects such as drift, beam damage, and sample contamination. Recent advances in computational imaging techniques for STEM have allowed for faster acquisition speeds by way of acquiring only a random subset of probe locations from the field of view. By doing this, the acquisition time is significantly reduced, in some cases by a factor of 10‐100 times. The acquired data is then processed to fill‐in or inpaint the missing data, taking advantage of the inherently low‐complex signals which can be linearly combined to recover the information. In this work, similar methods are demonstrated for the acquisition of 4‐D STEM data, where only a random subset of CBED patterns are acquired over the raster scan. We simulate the compressive sensing acquisition method for 4‐D STEM and present our findings for a variety of analysis techniques such as ptychography and differential phase contrast. Our results show that acquisition times can be significantly reduced on the order of 100‐300 times, therefore improving existing frame rates, as well as further reducing the electron fluence beyond just using a faster camera.

Robinson, Alex W.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generative models on phase space

Deep generative models such as diffusion and flow matching are powerful machine learning tools capable of learning and sampling from high-dimensional distributions. They are particularly useful when the training data appears to be concentrated on a submanifold of the data embedding space. For high-energy physics data, consisting of collections of relativistic energy-momentum 4-vectors, this submanifold can enforce extremely strong physically-motivated priors, such as energy and momentum conservation. If these constraints are learned only approximately, rather than exactly, this can inhibit the interpretability and reliability of such generative models. To remedy this deficiency, we introduce generative models which are, by construction, confined at every step of their sampling trajectory to the manifold of massless N-particle Lorentz-invariant phase space in the center-of-momentum frame. In the case of diffusion models, the "pure noise" forward process endpoint corresponds to the uniform distribution on phase space, which provides a clear starting point from which to identify how correlations among the particles emerge during the reverse (de-noising) process. We demonstrate that our models are able to learn both few-particle and many-particle distributions with various singularity structures, paving the way for future interpretability studies using generative models trained on simulated jet data.

Bogorad, Zachary [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Self-driven ion deflectometry measurements using MeV fusion-driven protons and accelerated deuterons in the deuterated hybrid x-pinch on the MAIZE LTD generator

Abstract We report on the results of point-projection ion deflectometry measurements from a mid-size university z-pinch experiment. A 1 MA 8 kJ LTD generator at the University of Michigan (called MAIZE) drove a hybrid x-pinch (HXP) with a deuterated polyethylene fiber load to produce a point-like source of MeV ions for backlighting. In these experiments, 2.7 MeV protons were generated by DD beam-target fusion reactions. Due to the kinematics of beam-target fusion, the proton energies were down-shifted from the more standard 3.02 MeV proton energy that is released from the center-of-mass rest frame of a DD reaction. In addition to the 2.7 MeV protons, strongly anisotropic beams of 3 MeV accelerated deuterons were detected by ion diagnostics placed at a radial distance of 90 mm from the x-pinch. Numerical reconstruction of experimental data generated by deflected hydrogen ion trajectories evaluated the total current in the vacuum load region. Numerical ion-tracking simulations show that accelerated deuteron beams exited the ion source region at large angles with respect to the pinch current direction.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Future Energy Value of Long-Duration Energy Storage

Long-duration energy storage is commonly viewed as a key technology for providing flexibility to the grid and broader energy systems over a multidecadal time frame. However, prior work has typically used present-day grid infrastructures to characterize the relationship between the duration and arbitrage value of storage in electricity markets. This study leverages established National Renewable Energy Laboratory grid planning and operations tools, analysis, and data to execute a price-taker model of an energy storage system for several 8760 h price series representative of current and future contiguous United States grid infrastructures with varying shares of variable renewable energy (VRE). We find that the total value of energy storage typically increases with VRE shares, but any increase in the relative value of longer storage durations over time depends on the region and grid mix. Some regions see incremental value increasing notably, up to 20–40 h in 2050, while others do not. The negative effect of lower roundtrip efficiency on value is also found to be scenario-dependent, with the energy value in higher VRE scenarios being less sensitive to roundtrip efficiency and more supportive of longer storage durations. Long-duration storage value and deployment potential are a function of evolving electricity sector infrastructure, markets, and policy, making it critical to consistently revisit potential long-duration storage contributions to the grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structure of Odd-A Ag Isotopes Studied via Algebraic Approaches

The structure of the odd-A silver isotopes Ag 103–115 is discussed within the frame of the interacting boson–fermion model (IBFM). An overview of their key properties is presented, with a particular attention paid to the “ J -1 anomaly”, represented by an abnormal ordering of the lowest 7/2 + and 9/2 + states. By examining previously published data and newly performed calculations, it is demonstrated that the experimentally known level schemes and electromagnetic properties of Ag 103–115 can be reproduced well within IBFM-1 by using a consistent set of model parameters. The contribution of different single-particle orbitals to the structure of the lowest-lying excited nuclear states in Ag 103–115 is discussed. Given that the J-1 anomaly brings down the 7/2 + level from the j −3 multiplet to energies, which can be thermally populated in hot stellar environments, the importance of low-lying excited states in odd-A silver isotopes for astrophysical processes is outlined.

IBFM-1↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predictive Assessment of the Chemical Composition of Coal Ash in Reserve at U.S. Disposal Sites

In the United States, more than 2 Gt of coal combustion residuals (i.e., coal ash) are stored in hundreds of disposal units. Recent federal regulations mandate the closure or retrofitting of most coal ash impoundments, presenting significant challenges for waste management. These regulatory pressures also present opportunities to reuse coal ash. However, the quality and quantity of discarded coal ash across the U.S. are not well known, even though this information is crucial for spurring its reuse for conventional and new material applications. This study describes a predictive model for the major element composition of coal ash in reserve at disposal sites of major U.S. coal-fired power plants. This model was constructed from coal purchase records of 705 power stations from 1973 to 2022 and was trained on coal ash composition data, showing that coal ash elemental composition is strongly associated with the source of feedstock coal. The model showed regional shifts in the major element contents of ash produced by power plants in the last 50 years, particularly for calcium and iron (expressed as %CaO and %Fe2O3), as power stations changed their source of coal over this time frame. Our approach enables an estimation of chemical composition for ash stored in waste impoundments at individual power stations. Such information can help to delineate the regional market resource potential of supplementary cements for concrete and other material innovations that would utilize coal ash harvested from disposal sites across the U.S.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polarization-shape alignment of IllustrisTNG star-forming galaxies

In star-forming disk galaxies, the radio continuum emission (1–10GHz) powered by star formation has an integrated polarization direction imperfectly aligned with the apparent disk minor axis. This polarization-shape alignment effect was previously observed in a small sample of local spirals. If this is prevalent for disk galaxies out to cosmological redshifts, novel measurements of cosmic birefringence and cosmic shear will be enabled by leveraging radio continuum surveys such as the Square Kilometre Array synergized with galaxy shape measurements. We calculate the polarization-shape misalignment angle for star-forming galaxies in the IllustrisTNG50 simulation at 0 < z < 2, assuming that additional polarized radio emission from an active galactic nucleus is negligible in at least a sizable fraction of the star-forming galaxies. The alignment found for z = 0 is consistent with local spiral data, but significantly deteriorates as redshift increases. Moreover, it degrades toward lower frequencies due to internal Faraday depolarization. Thanks to cosmic redshifting, observing higher-z galaxies at a fixed frequency greatly mitigates degradation due to reduced Faraday depolarization at the source-frame frequency. We present analytic fits to the non-Gaussian misalignment angle distribution, and evaluate Fisher information per galaxy for measuring a polarization rotation angle induced by cosmic birefringence. For observation at 4.8 GHz, the effective root-mean-square misalignment angle σα,eff is 18°, 23° and 33° at z = 0, 1 and 2, respectively. Analyzing N independent galaxies reduces the uncertainty on an isotropic cosmic birefringence signal to σ α,eff /√(N), providing competitive sensitivity once large samples are available. As accurate observation-driven models are not yet available for cosmological galaxy samples, our results motivate pilot observations to empirically characterize polarization-shape alignment, and can facilitate forecasts of cosmology and fundamental physics applications that exploit this effect.

axions↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sovereign Credit Rating Processes Adapted to Critical Infrastructure Cyber Risk Assessment

United States critical infrastructure entities are increasingly targeted by motivated and capable threat actors and must be prepared to assess and treat a diverse range of cyber risks. Consequently, this necessitates some form of analytical process to evaluate risks and inform cyber security investment decisions. A potential solution for structuring cyber risk evaluation exists within the field of sovereign credit ratings – where agencies employ mature approaches that integrate quantitative and qualitative data to produce a singular value of assessment. Adapting such approaches, we present a novel criterion and methodology for measuring and communicating the likelihood element of cyber risk. The methodology is composed of three sequential phases: a quantitative baseline organized by distinct capability frames, a bounded qualitative adjustment per frame, and a greater-bounded qualitative adjustment spanning the entire process. The process culminates in publication of a cyber capability rating that communicates a critical infrastructure entity’s ability and willingness to mitigate discontinuous function due to cyberattack.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observation and differential cross section measurement of neutral current DIS events with an empty hemisphere in the Breit frame

The Breit frame provides a natural frame to analyze lepton–proton scattering events. In this reference frame, the parton model hard interactions between a quark and an exchanged boson defines the coordinate system such that the struck quark is back-scattered along the virtual photon momentum direction. In Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD), higher order perturbative or non-perturbative effects can change this picture drastically. As Bjorken-x decreases below one half, a rather peculiar event signature is predicted with increasing probability, where no radiation is present in one of the two Breit-frame hemispheres and all emissions are to be found in the other hemisphere. At higher orders in $\alpha$ s or in the presence of soft QCD effects, predictions of the rate of these events are far from trivial, and that motivates measurements with real data. We report on the first observation of the empty current hemisphere events in electron–proton collisions at the HERA collider using data recorded with the H1 detector at a center-of-mass energy of 319 GeV. The fraction of inclusive neutral-current DIS events with an empty hemisphere is found to be 0.0112 ± 3.9% stat ± 4.5% syst ± 1.6% mod in the selected kinematic region of 150 < Q 2 < 1500 GeV 2 and inelasticity 0.14 < y < 0.7. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 351.1 pb -1 , sufficient to enable differential cross section measurements of these events. The results show an enhanced discriminating power at lower Bjorken-x among different Monte Carlo event generator predictions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

An improved direct limit on the muon electric dipole moment

A limit on the permanent electric dipole moment (EDM) of the positive muon is presented based on data from the Fermilab Muon g-2 Experiment taken between 2019 and 2020. The tracking detectors measure the average vertical decay angle of positrons from muon decays, enabling a search for an interaction between a possible muon EDM $d_μ$ and the lab-frame magnetic field. The result, $d_μ= (-0.35 \pm 0.19_{\mathrm{stat}} \pm 0.34_{\mathrm{sys}}) \times10^{-19}~e\cdot$cm, is consistent with zero and sets a new direct limit on the muon EDM of $|d_μ|<1.10\times10^{-19}~e\cdot$cm at the 95 percent confidence level.

Aguillard, D. P. [Michigan U.] (ORCID:000000025556↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measurements of Angular Distributions of Drell-Yan Dimuons in $p+p$ and $p+d$ Interactions at 120 GeV/$c$

We present experimental results on the angular distributions of Drell-Yan muons produced by a 120 GeV/$c$ proton beam interacting with liquid hydrogen and deuterium targets. The dimuon angular distributions in both polar ($θ$) and azimuthal ($ϕ$) angles in the Collins-Soper frame are measured within the kinematic range of $4.5 < m_{μμ} < 10\ \mathrm{GeV}/c^2$, $0.19 < p_T < 2.24\ \mathrm{GeV}/c$, and $0 < x_F < 0.95$. Unlike the results of a previous proton-induced Drell-Yan experiment at a higher energy, the data reveal a pronounced $\cos 2ϕ$ modulation in the angular distributions. Comparison with perturbative QCD (pQCD) predictions shows statistically significant deviations, with p-values of 3.5% for the $p+p$ and 1.5% for the $p+d$ Drell-Yan processes. These results suggest the presence of nonperturbative QCD contributions.

Nagai, K. [Christian Brothers U.; Los Alamos; Taiw↗
DOE OSTI2026

The birth of a field through a marriage of scales: urban meteorological modeling meets regional climate modeling

Urban meteorological modeling and regional climate modeling developed largely independently, with each discipline addressing different aspects of atmospheric processes across space and time. In this review, I show that urban climate modeling did not arise as a simple scaling extension of urban meteorological modeling or an add-on to regional climate modeling, but instead emerged through the selective inheritance of complementary strengths from its parents after both disciplines reached sufficient methodological maturity. By tracing the parallel evolution of these disciplines, I demonstrate that urban climate modeling inherited the physically explicit treatment of the built environment developed within urban meteorological modeling, and the hierarchical scale translation and climatological framing that matured within regional climate modeling, allowing urban effects to influence climate-relevant outcomes. Building on this synthesis, I propose an objective, and methodologically-grounded definition of urban climate modeling that distinguishes it from urban meteorological modeling. This distinction is increasingly important as urban climate data informs decisions with long-lived societal consequences, and as ambiguity in terminology risks conflating fundamentally different modeling frameworks with distinct physical meaning and decision relevance. In addition to a clarifying definition, this review outlines a research framework for advancing urban climate modeling through scale-aware coupling strategies that preserve physically consistent urban-atmosphere interactions.

regional climate↗
DOE OSTI2024

Infrastructure-Based Cooperative Perception at a Traffic Intersection: Overview and Challenges: Preprint

Recent advancement in autonomous driving vehicles and V2X communication has attracted increasing attention towards Intelligent Transportation Systems to build a safe and reliable traffic intersection. However, most of the systems are still at the initial stages and require significant progress to become a reality. This paper presents an overview of NREL Infrastructure Perception and Control (IPC) framework which is an open-source track-data fusion engine which takes input from infrastructure-based perception sensors and cooperatively shared messages from Connected Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) and Connected Vehicle (CVs) and the challenges associated with deploying such cooperative perception framework at a four-way traffic intersection in the city of Colorado Springs, CO, USA. The sensor data is collected by deploying two radars and two LiDAR sensors on the IPC mobile lab and two radars on diagonally opposite traffic poles at the proposed intersection. The sensor output results imply the need for rapid sensor calibration to bring the collective perception to a common coordinate frame, the importance of time synchronization between the sensors in order to capture accurate spatial and temporal alignment of the objects, and the need for a health monitoring system with fail safe closed-loop detection model for real-time deployment.

camera↗
DOE OSTI2024

5G Energy FRAME Report on 5G for Grid Use Case (Year 3 Final Report)

This report provides an extensive overview of the interrelationships among energy, communication, and computing—especially in the context of decarbonization goals, challenges, and opportunities. Technical examples enabled by 5G technologies and their performance are presented, discussed, based on the experiment performed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. This is the first use case focused on using 5G for the U.S. power grid and will be referred to as the 5G for Grid Use Case from here on. Specifically, this use case looks at the workflow, which integrates the performance data of a real-world 5G communication testbed and a grid transmission and distribution co-simulation platform. The cross-domain information flow and logic design are illustrated with a combination of power grid contingencies and events. Lastly, a summary of the project achievement and outcome is provided, along with a technology roadmap envisioned by the project team.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗