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2023 University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez National Institute for Congestion Reduction Study

# 2023 University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez National Institute for Congestion Reduction Study The 2023 University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez National Institute for Congestion Reduction (NCIR) Study provided insight into the travel patterns and associated energy consumption of participants. Study results helped researchers identify opportunities for the development of policies that could incentivize the use of alternative modes of travel such as transit and micromobility. Such travel modes reduce congestion by reducing the miles traveled by privately owned vehicles in urban and rural areas. The [National Institute for Congestion Reduction](https://nicr.usf.edu/) provides multimodal congestion reduction strategies through real-world deployments that leverage advances in technology, big data science, and innovative transportation options to optimize the efficiency and reliability of the transportation system for all users. ## Data Collection Agency The University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez conducted the study. ## Survey Methodology The study was conducted in Spanish. Data collection was enabled via the open-source [NREL OpenPATH platform](https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/openpath). The resulting dataset consists of partially automated travel diaries—combining sensed and surveyed data reflecting patterns of multimodal, end-to-end, individual human mobility—as well as demographic and socioeconomic information from the 17 participants. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Study records include 17 participants. The total number of trips was 458 and total non-air-miles traveled was approximately 1,469.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2023 University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez National Institute for Congestion Reduction Study

# 2023 University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez National Institute for Congestion Reduction Study The 2023 University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez National Institute for Congestion Reduction (NCIR) Study provided insight into the travel patterns and associated energy consumption of participants. Study results helped researchers identify opportunities for the development of policies that could incentivize the use of alternative modes of travel such as transit and micromobility. Such travel modes reduce congestion by reducing the miles traveled by privately owned vehicles in urban and rural areas. The [National Institute for Congestion Reduction](https://nicr.usf.edu/) provides multimodal congestion reduction strategies through real-world deployments that leverage advances in technology, big data science, and innovative transportation options to optimize the efficiency and reliability of the transportation system for all users. ## Data Collection Agency The University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez conducted the study. ## Survey Methodology The study was conducted in Spanish. Data collection was enabled via the open-source [NREL OpenPATH platform](https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/openpath). The resulting dataset consists of partially automated travel diaries—combining sensed and surveyed data reflecting patterns of multimodal, end-to-end, individual human mobility—as well as demographic and socioeconomic information from the 17 participants. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Study records include 17 participants. The total number of trips was 458 and total non-air-miles traveled was approximately 1,469.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2023 University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez National Institute for Congestion Reduction Study

# 2023 University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez National Institute for Congestion Reduction Study The 2023 University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez National Institute for Congestion Reduction (NCIR) Study provided insight into the travel patterns and associated energy consumption of participants. Study results helped researchers identify opportunities for the development of policies that could incentivize the use of alternative modes of travel such as transit and micromobility. Such travel modes reduce congestion by reducing the miles traveled by privately owned vehicles in urban and rural areas. The [National Institute for Congestion Reduction](https://nicr.usf.edu/) provides multimodal congestion reduction strategies through real-world deployments that leverage advances in technology, big data science, and innovative transportation options to optimize the efficiency and reliability of the transportation system for all users. ## Data Collection Agency The University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez conducted the study. ## Survey Methodology The study was conducted in Spanish. Data collection was enabled via the open-source [NREL OpenPATH platform](https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/openpath). The resulting dataset consists of partially automated travel diaries—combining sensed and surveyed data reflecting patterns of multimodal, end-to-end, individual human mobility—as well as demographic and socioeconomic information from the 17 participants. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Study records include 17 participants. The total number of trips was 458 and total non-air-miles traveled was approximately 1,469.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2023 University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez National Institute for Congestion Reduction Study

# 2023 University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez National Institute for Congestion Reduction Study The 2023 University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez National Institute for Congestion Reduction (NCIR) Study provided insight into the travel patterns and associated energy consumption of participants. Study results helped researchers identify opportunities for the development of policies that could incentivize the use of alternative modes of travel such as transit and micromobility. Such travel modes reduce congestion by reducing the miles traveled by privately owned vehicles in urban and rural areas. The [National Institute for Congestion Reduction](https://nicr.usf.edu/) provides multimodal congestion reduction strategies through real-world deployments that leverage advances in technology, big data science, and innovative transportation options to optimize the efficiency and reliability of the transportation system for all users. ## Data Collection Agency The University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez conducted the study. ## Survey Methodology The study was conducted in Spanish. Data collection was enabled via the open-source [NREL OpenPATH platform](https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/openpath). The resulting dataset consists of partially automated travel diaries—combining sensed and surveyed data reflecting patterns of multimodal, end-to-end, individual human mobility—as well as demographic and socioeconomic information from the 17 participants. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Study records include 17 participants. The total number of trips was 458 and total non-air-miles traveled was approximately 1,469.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2023 University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez National Institute for Congestion Reduction Study

# 2023 University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez National Institute for Congestion Reduction Study The 2023 University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez National Institute for Congestion Reduction (NCIR) Study provided insight into the travel patterns and associated energy consumption of participants. Study results helped researchers identify opportunities for the development of policies that could incentivize the use of alternative modes of travel such as transit and micromobility. Such travel modes reduce congestion by reducing the miles traveled by privately owned vehicles in urban and rural areas. The [National Institute for Congestion Reduction](https://nicr.usf.edu/) provides multimodal congestion reduction strategies through real-world deployments that leverage advances in technology, big data science, and innovative transportation options to optimize the efficiency and reliability of the transportation system for all users. ## Data Collection Agency The University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez conducted the study. ## Survey Methodology The study was conducted in Spanish. Data collection was enabled via the open-source [NREL OpenPATH platform](https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/openpath). The resulting dataset consists of partially automated travel diaries—combining sensed and surveyed data reflecting patterns of multimodal, end-to-end, individual human mobility—as well as demographic and socioeconomic information from the 17 participants. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Study records include 17 participants. The total number of trips was 458 and total non-air-miles traveled was approximately 1,469.

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Product Innovation to Increase Low-to-Moderate-Income Customers' Adoption of Community Solar PV

This study aims to comprehensively analyze community solar project preferences for consumers and suppliers by conducting three distinct analyses. First we analyze the predictors of community solar contract adoption to understand how individual priorities affect the probability of adoption. Using an original data set of survey responses from potential community solar customers, we analyzed the predictors of contract adoption by employing a weighted logit model. We find that individuals who were previously familiar with community solar projects were significantly more likely to adopt than those who were not familiar. Secondly, a survey of community solar developers and financiers identified industry perceived barriers to community solar access and inclusion. Thirdly, we gathered payment performance information from community solar initiatives to measure how financial risks are perceived and how they interact with customer demographics. Our study is beneficial to the public by providing insights into the drivers and barriers of community solar adoption and sheds light on the importance of understanding individual priorities in designing effective community solar policies. The community solar industry has changed significantly since the beginning of this project. The industry continues to grow at a rapid rate, with an additional 7 gigawatts expected to come online between 2022 and 2027. With federal pressure to meet climate goals, as the harms of climate change continue to impact everybody, legislators are looking to community solar as a method to achieving their states energy policy goals. These new policies that push for low-to-moderate inclusion, coupled with the increase in community solar capacity illustrate a new era for the community solar industry. A number of policies have arisen in the last few months that push for more inclusive practices including the groundbreaking Solar for All program run by the EPA. The research created a “best practice” contract that can then be used, in conjunction with the manuscript and validated study, to pitch the industry on a more inclusive community solar product.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

2022 Central California Travel Study

# 2022 Central California Travel Study The 2022 Central California Travel Study collected demographic and travel pattern information to better understand household travel behavior in the state’s San Joaquin Valley region. ## Data Collection Agency The Fresno Council of Governments conducted the household travel study in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare counties in California. ## Survey Methodology The two-part study consisted of a survey and a travel diary. The survey gathered data on household demographic composition and typical travel behaviors. The travel diary gathered individual travel data during a specified travel period for all members of a given household. ## Travel Diary Methods Households with smartphones were encouraged to complete their travel diaries using the rMove smartphone app for up to seven consecutive days. Households without smartphones or those unwilling to participate via smartphone completed their travel diaries online (using the web-version of rMove) or by calling the survey call center. These households reported travel for one day (Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday). ## Recruitment Sampling Methods The majority of the recruitment was conducted via address-based sampling, a type of probability sampling, with a focus on reaching county-level targets in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in the region. Supplemental sampling methods, primarily non-probability, were employed during all waves of data collection to improve survey representation. The supplemental sample included targeted outreach to hard-to-survey populations via transit rider email lists; local housing authorities; Nichols Research, a California-based market research firm; and the Ipsos™ KnowledgePanel, an online random probability panel. See the documentation for more information about sampling and weighting. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation In total, 7,406 households completed 19,084 surveys representing 150,012 trips across 42,567 person-days.

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2022 Central California Travel Study

# 2022 Central California Travel Study The 2022 Central California Travel Study collected demographic and travel pattern information to better understand household travel behavior in the state’s San Joaquin Valley region. ## Data Collection Agency The Fresno Council of Governments conducted the household travel study in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare counties in California. ## Survey Methodology The two-part study consisted of a survey and a travel diary. The survey gathered data on household demographic composition and typical travel behaviors. The travel diary gathered individual travel data during a specified travel period for all members of a given household. ## Travel Diary Methods Households with smartphones were encouraged to complete their travel diaries using the rMove smartphone app for up to seven consecutive days. Households without smartphones or those unwilling to participate via smartphone completed their travel diaries online (using the web-version of rMove) or by calling the survey call center. These households reported travel for one day (Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday). ## Recruitment Sampling Methods The majority of the recruitment was conducted via address-based sampling, a type of probability sampling, with a focus on reaching county-level targets in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in the region. Supplemental sampling methods, primarily non-probability, were employed during all waves of data collection to improve survey representation. The supplemental sample included targeted outreach to hard-to-survey populations via transit rider email lists; local housing authorities; Nichols Research, a California-based market research firm; and the Ipsos™ KnowledgePanel, an online random probability panel. See the documentation for more information about sampling and weighting. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation In total, 7,406 households completed 19,084 surveys representing 150,012 trips across 42,567 person-days.

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2022 Central California Travel Study

# 2022 Central California Travel Study The 2022 Central California Travel Study collected demographic and travel pattern information to better understand household travel behavior in the state’s San Joaquin Valley region. ## Data Collection Agency The Fresno Council of Governments conducted the household travel study in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare counties in California. ## Survey Methodology The two-part study consisted of a survey and a travel diary. The survey gathered data on household demographic composition and typical travel behaviors. The travel diary gathered individual travel data during a specified travel period for all members of a given household. ## Travel Diary Methods Households with smartphones were encouraged to complete their travel diaries using the rMove smartphone app for up to seven consecutive days. Households without smartphones or those unwilling to participate via smartphone completed their travel diaries online (using the web-version of rMove) or by calling the survey call center. These households reported travel for one day (Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday). ## Recruitment Sampling Methods The majority of the recruitment was conducted via address-based sampling, a type of probability sampling, with a focus on reaching county-level targets in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in the region. Supplemental sampling methods, primarily non-probability, were employed during all waves of data collection to improve survey representation. The supplemental sample included targeted outreach to hard-to-survey populations via transit rider email lists; local housing authorities; Nichols Research, a California-based market research firm; and the Ipsos™ KnowledgePanel, an online random probability panel. See the documentation for more information about sampling and weighting. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation In total, 7,406 households completed 19,084 surveys representing 150,012 trips across 42,567 person-days.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2022 Central California Travel Study

# 2022 Central California Travel Study The 2022 Central California Travel Study collected demographic and travel pattern information to better understand household travel behavior in the state’s San Joaquin Valley region. ## Data Collection Agency The Fresno Council of Governments conducted the household travel study in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare counties in California. ## Survey Methodology The two-part study consisted of a survey and a travel diary. The survey gathered data on household demographic composition and typical travel behaviors. The travel diary gathered individual travel data during a specified travel period for all members of a given household. ## Travel Diary Methods Households with smartphones were encouraged to complete their travel diaries using the rMove smartphone app for up to seven consecutive days. Households without smartphones or those unwilling to participate via smartphone completed their travel diaries online (using the web-version of rMove) or by calling the survey call center. These households reported travel for one day (Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday). ## Recruitment Sampling Methods The majority of the recruitment was conducted via address-based sampling, a type of probability sampling, with a focus on reaching county-level targets in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in the region. Supplemental sampling methods, primarily non-probability, were employed during all waves of data collection to improve survey representation. The supplemental sample included targeted outreach to hard-to-survey populations via transit rider email lists; local housing authorities; Nichols Research, a California-based market research firm; and the Ipsos™ KnowledgePanel, an online random probability panel. See the documentation for more information about sampling and weighting. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation In total, 7,406 households completed 19,084 surveys representing 150,012 trips across 42,567 person-days.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2022 Central California Travel Study

# 2022 Central California Travel Study The 2022 Central California Travel Study collected demographic and travel pattern information to better understand household travel behavior in the state’s San Joaquin Valley region. ## Data Collection Agency The Fresno Council of Governments conducted the household travel study in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare counties in California. ## Survey Methodology The two-part study consisted of a survey and a travel diary. The survey gathered data on household demographic composition and typical travel behaviors. The travel diary gathered individual travel data during a specified travel period for all members of a given household. ## Travel Diary Methods Households with smartphones were encouraged to complete their travel diaries using the rMove smartphone app for up to seven consecutive days. Households without smartphones or those unwilling to participate via smartphone completed their travel diaries online (using the web-version of rMove) or by calling the survey call center. These households reported travel for one day (Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday). ## Recruitment Sampling Methods The majority of the recruitment was conducted via address-based sampling, a type of probability sampling, with a focus on reaching county-level targets in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in the region. Supplemental sampling methods, primarily non-probability, were employed during all waves of data collection to improve survey representation. The supplemental sample included targeted outreach to hard-to-survey populations via transit rider email lists; local housing authorities; Nichols Research, a California-based market research firm; and the Ipsos™ KnowledgePanel, an online random probability panel. See the documentation for more information about sampling and weighting. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation In total, 7,406 households completed 19,084 surveys representing 150,012 trips across 42,567 person-days.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2022 Central California Travel Study

# 2022 Central California Travel Study The 2022 Central California Travel Study collected demographic and travel pattern information to better understand household travel behavior in the state’s San Joaquin Valley region. ## Data Collection Agency The Fresno Council of Governments conducted the household travel study in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare counties in California. ## Survey Methodology The two-part study consisted of a survey and a travel diary. The survey gathered data on household demographic composition and typical travel behaviors. The travel diary gathered individual travel data during a specified travel period for all members of a given household. ## Travel Diary Methods Households with smartphones were encouraged to complete their travel diaries using the rMove smartphone app for up to seven consecutive days. Households without smartphones or those unwilling to participate via smartphone completed their travel diaries online (using the web-version of rMove) or by calling the survey call center. These households reported travel for one day (Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday). ## Recruitment Sampling Methods The majority of the recruitment was conducted via address-based sampling, a type of probability sampling, with a focus on reaching county-level targets in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in the region. Supplemental sampling methods, primarily non-probability, were employed during all waves of data collection to improve survey representation. The supplemental sample included targeted outreach to hard-to-survey populations via transit rider email lists; local housing authorities; Nichols Research, a California-based market research firm; and the Ipsos™ KnowledgePanel, an online random probability panel. See the documentation for more information about sampling and weighting. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation In total, 7,406 households completed 19,084 surveys representing 150,012 trips across 42,567 person-days.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2022 Central California Travel Study

# 2022 Central California Travel Study The 2022 Central California Travel Study collected demographic and travel pattern information to better understand household travel behavior in the state’s San Joaquin Valley region. ## Data Collection Agency The Fresno Council of Governments conducted the household travel study in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare counties in California. ## Survey Methodology The two-part study consisted of a survey and a travel diary. The survey gathered data on household demographic composition and typical travel behaviors. The travel diary gathered individual travel data during a specified travel period for all members of a given household. ## Travel Diary Methods Households with smartphones were encouraged to complete their travel diaries using the rMove smartphone app for up to seven consecutive days. Households without smartphones or those unwilling to participate via smartphone completed their travel diaries online (using the web-version of rMove) or by calling the survey call center. These households reported travel for one day (Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday). ## Recruitment Sampling Methods The majority of the recruitment was conducted via address-based sampling, a type of probability sampling, with a focus on reaching county-level targets in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in the region. Supplemental sampling methods, primarily non-probability, were employed during all waves of data collection to improve survey representation. The supplemental sample included targeted outreach to hard-to-survey populations via transit rider email lists; local housing authorities; Nichols Research, a California-based market research firm; and the Ipsos™ KnowledgePanel, an online random probability panel. See the documentation for more information about sampling and weighting. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation In total, 7,406 households completed 19,084 surveys representing 150,012 trips across 42,567 person-days.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2022 Central California Travel Study

# 2022 Central California Travel Study The 2022 Central California Travel Study collected demographic and travel pattern information to better understand household travel behavior in the state’s San Joaquin Valley region. ## Data Collection Agency The Fresno Council of Governments conducted the household travel study in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare counties in California. ## Survey Methodology The two-part study consisted of a survey and a travel diary. The survey gathered data on household demographic composition and typical travel behaviors. The travel diary gathered individual travel data during a specified travel period for all members of a given household. ## Travel Diary Methods Households with smartphones were encouraged to complete their travel diaries using the rMove smartphone app for up to seven consecutive days. Households without smartphones or those unwilling to participate via smartphone completed their travel diaries online (using the web-version of rMove) or by calling the survey call center. These households reported travel for one day (Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday). ## Recruitment Sampling Methods The majority of the recruitment was conducted via address-based sampling, a type of probability sampling, with a focus on reaching county-level targets in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in the region. Supplemental sampling methods, primarily non-probability, were employed during all waves of data collection to improve survey representation. The supplemental sample included targeted outreach to hard-to-survey populations via transit rider email lists; local housing authorities; Nichols Research, a California-based market research firm; and the Ipsos™ KnowledgePanel, an online random probability panel. See the documentation for more information about sampling and weighting. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation In total, 7,406 households completed 19,084 surveys representing 150,012 trips across 42,567 person-days.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2022 Central California Travel Study

# 2022 Central California Travel Study The 2022 Central California Travel Study collected demographic and travel pattern information to better understand household travel behavior in the state’s San Joaquin Valley region. ## Data Collection Agency The Fresno Council of Governments conducted the household travel study in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare counties in California. ## Survey Methodology The two-part study consisted of a survey and a travel diary. The survey gathered data on household demographic composition and typical travel behaviors. The travel diary gathered individual travel data during a specified travel period for all members of a given household. ## Travel Diary Methods Households with smartphones were encouraged to complete their travel diaries using the rMove smartphone app for up to seven consecutive days. Households without smartphones or those unwilling to participate via smartphone completed their travel diaries online (using the web-version of rMove) or by calling the survey call center. These households reported travel for one day (Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday). ## Recruitment Sampling Methods The majority of the recruitment was conducted via address-based sampling, a type of probability sampling, with a focus on reaching county-level targets in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in the region. Supplemental sampling methods, primarily non-probability, were employed during all waves of data collection to improve survey representation. The supplemental sample included targeted outreach to hard-to-survey populations via transit rider email lists; local housing authorities; Nichols Research, a California-based market research firm; and the Ipsos™ KnowledgePanel, an online random probability panel. See the documentation for more information about sampling and weighting. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation In total, 7,406 households completed 19,084 surveys representing 150,012 trips across 42,567 person-days.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2022 Central California Travel Study

# 2022 Central California Travel Study The 2022 Central California Travel Study collected demographic and travel pattern information to better understand household travel behavior in the state’s San Joaquin Valley region. ## Data Collection Agency The Fresno Council of Governments conducted the household travel study in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare counties in California. ## Survey Methodology The two-part study consisted of a survey and a travel diary. The survey gathered data on household demographic composition and typical travel behaviors. The travel diary gathered individual travel data during a specified travel period for all members of a given household. ## Travel Diary Methods Households with smartphones were encouraged to complete their travel diaries using the rMove smartphone app for up to seven consecutive days. Households without smartphones or those unwilling to participate via smartphone completed their travel diaries online (using the web-version of rMove) or by calling the survey call center. These households reported travel for one day (Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday). ## Recruitment Sampling Methods The majority of the recruitment was conducted via address-based sampling, a type of probability sampling, with a focus on reaching county-level targets in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in the region. Supplemental sampling methods, primarily non-probability, were employed during all waves of data collection to improve survey representation. The supplemental sample included targeted outreach to hard-to-survey populations via transit rider email lists; local housing authorities; Nichols Research, a California-based market research firm; and the Ipsos™ KnowledgePanel, an online random probability panel. See the documentation for more information about sampling and weighting. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation In total, 7,406 households completed 19,084 surveys representing 150,012 trips across 42,567 person-days.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Investigating Coastal Vegetation Dynamics and Ecosystem Impacts Under Elevated CO 2 and Temperature: A Process‐Based Approach

Coastal forests are increasingly vulnerable to climate change and sea-level rise, with flooding and salinity driving transitions to marsh-dominated ecosystems. Using the coastal version of FATES-Hydro, we conducted 30-year simulations at two coastal forest sites—a broadleaf swamp white oak stand at Lake Erie and a conifer loblolly pine stand at Chesapeake Bay—under historical climate and elevated CO 2 (+100 ppm) and temperature (+1.5°C) scenarios. Elevated CO 2 increased net primary productivity at both sites, while warming alone intensified hydraulic stress and accelerated mortality, particularly in the conifer stand. Simulations show that elevated temperatures intensify vapor pressure deficit and hydraulic stress on trees already experiencing salinity- and submersion-driven water stress, increasing tree mortality beyond what would be expected in a non-water-limited environment. Marsh expansion partially compensated for tree loss at the Lake Erie site but reduced ecosystem productivity in the conifer forest at Chesapeake Bay. In conclusion, our results highlight how differences in stand structure, phenology, and local hydrology modulate ecosystem trajectories under climate change, emphasizing the importance of demographic and community-level processes for predicting the fate of coastal forests.

Ding, Junyan [Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC↗

Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Methods We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. Results Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. Conclusions Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases). Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗