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DOE OSTI2015

Metrological analysis of a virtual flowmeter-based transducer for cryogenic helium

The metrological performance of a virtual flowmeter-based transducer for monitoring helium under cryogenic conditions is assessed. At this aim, an uncertainty model of the transducer, mainly based on a valve model, exploiting finite-element approach, and a virtual flowmeter model, based on the Sereg-Schlumberger method, are presented. The models are validated experimentally on a case study for helium monitoring in cryogenic systems at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN). The impact of uncertainty sources on the transducer metrological performance is assessed by a sensitivity analysis, based on statistical experiment design and analysis of variance. In this way, the uncertainty sources most influencing metrological performance of the transducer are singled out over the input range as a whole, at varying operating and setting conditions. This analysis turns out to be important for CERN cryogenics operation because the metrological design of the transducer is validated, and its components and working conditions with critical specifications for future improvements are identified.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2019

Improving the Performance of Threaded Joints

Abstract—The influence of the surface roughness on the fatigue strength of threaded joints is considered. Multifactorial experiment design is used to analyze the influence of the geometry in tap sharpening and the thickness of the cut layer on the roughness of the machined surface. A durable new tap design ensures high quality of the machined surface.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Muon to electron conversion search in the presence of Al nuclei at the Fermilab Mu2e experiment: Motivation, Design and Progress

The Mu2e experiment aims to find charged lepton flavor violation(CLFV) by measuring the monochromatic electrons from $\mu^- N\rightarrow e^- N$ conversion with an unprecedented single event sensitivity of $3 \times 10^{-17}$. When completed the experiment will improve the current limit by four orders of magnitude and make a previously unexplored phase space available for the search for beyond the standard model physics. Physics motivation for the experiment is discussed and design choices for the detectors and various sub systems are explained in this document. The construction of the Mu2e experiment is well underway and commissioning will begin in late 2022 with first data taking in late 2025 and 4-5 years of data taking thereafter to reach our goal.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Towards a New μ→eγ Search with the MEG II Experiment: From Design to Commissioning

The MEG experiment represents the state of the art in the search for the Charged Lepton Flavour Violating μ + →e + γ decay. With its first phase of operations at the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), MEG set the most stringent upper limit on the BR (μ + →e + γ) ≤ 4.2×10 –13 at 90% confidence level, imposing one of the tightest constraints on models predicting LFV-enhancements through new physics beyond the Standard Model. An upgrade of the MEG experiment, MEG II, was designed and it is presently in the commissioning phase, aiming at a sensitivity level of 6×10 –14 . The MEG II experiment relies on a series of upgrades, which include an improvement of the photon detector resolutions, brand new detectors on the positron side with better acceptance, efficiency and performances and new and optimized trigger and DAQ electronics to exploit a muon beam intensity twice as high as that of MEG (7×10 7 μ + /s). This paper presents a complete overview of the MEG II experimental apparatus and the current status of the detector commissioning in view of the physics data taking in the upcoming three years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

PIONEER: Studies of Rare Pion Decays

A next-generation rare pion decay experiment, PIONEER, is strongly motivated by several inconsistencies between Standard Model (SM) predictions and data pointing towards the potential violation of lepton flavor universality. It will probe non-SM explanations of these anomalies through sensitivity to quantum effects of new particles even if their masses are at very high scales. Measurement of the charged-pion branching ratio to electrons vs. muons $R_{e/\mu}$ is extremely sensitive to new physics effects. At present, the SM prediction for $R_{e/\mu}$ is known to 1 part in $10^4$, which is 15 times more precise than the current experimental result. An experiment reaching the theoretical accuracy will test lepton flavor universality at an unprecedented level, probing mass scales up to the PeV range. Measurement of pion beta decay, $\pi^+\to \pi^0 e^+ \nu (\gamma)$, with 3 to 10-fold improvement in sensitivity, will determine $V_{ud}$ in a theoretically pristine manner and test CKM unitarity, which is very important in light of the recently emerged tensions. In addition, various exotic rare decays involving sterile neutrinos and axions will be searched for with unprecedented sensitivity. The experiment design benefits from experience with the recent PIENU and PEN experiments at TRIUMF and the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI). Excellent energy and time resolutions, greatly increased calorimeter depth, high-speed detector and electronics response, large solid angle coverage, and complete event reconstruction are all critical aspects of the approach. The PIONEER experiment design includes a 3$\pi$ sr 25 radiation length calorimeter, a segmented low gain avalanche detector stopping target, a positron tracker, and other detectors. Using intense pion beams, and state-of-the-art instrumentation and computational resources, the experiments can be performed at the PSI ring cyclotron.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2019

Designing Critical Experiments using Gaussian Process Optimization [Slides]

When designing new nuclear applications, there may be a lack of similarity between the application and existing ICSBEP benchmarks. Without appropriate benchmark data, predictive simulations will have high uncertainty in parameters of interest, such as K eff . The goal of the project is to create an algorithm to optimally design critical experiments that match cross-section sensitivities of an application model while minimizing the number of simulation runs in the optimization.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Sequential Design of Experiments to Maximize Learning from Carbon Capture Pilot Plant Testing

Pilot plant test campaigns can be expensive and time-consuming. Therefore, it is of interest to maximize the amount of learning and the efficiency of the test campaign given the limited number of experiments that can be conducted. This work investigates the use of sequential design of experiments (SDOE) to overcome these challenges by demonstrating its usefulness for a recent solvent-based CO2 capture plant test campaign. Unlike traditional design of experiments methods, SDOE regularly uses information from ongoing experiments to determine the optimum locations in the design space for subsequent runs within the same experiment. However, there are challenges that need to be addressed, including reducing the high computational burden to efficiently update the model, and the need to incorporate the methodology into a computational tool. We address these challenges by applying SDOE in combination with a software tool, the Framework for Optimization, Quantification of Uncertainty and Surrogates (FOQUS) (Miller et al., 2014a, 2016, 2017). The results of applying SDOE on a pilot plant test campaign for CO2 capture suggests that relative to traditional design of experiments methods, SDOE can more effectively reduce the uncertainty of the model, thus decreasing technical risk. Future work includes integrating SDOE into FOQUS and using SDOE to support additional large-scale pilot plant test campaigns.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Conceptual design of the modular detector and readout system for the CMB-S4 survey experiment

We present the conceptual design of the modular detector and readout system for the Cosmic Microwave Background – Stage four (CMB-S4) ground-based survey experiment. CMB-S4 will map the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and the millimeter-wave sky to unprecedented sensitivity, using 500,000 superconducting detectors observing from Chile and Antarctica to map over 60% of the sky. The fundamental building block of the detector and readout system is a detector module package operated at 100 mK, which is connected to a readout and amplification chain that carries signals out to room temperature. It uses arrays of feedhorn-coupled orthomode transducers (OMT) that collect optical power from the sky onto dc-voltage-biased transition-edge sensor (TES) bolometers. The resulting current signal in the TESs is then amplified by a two-stage cryogenic Superconducting Quantum Interference Device (SQUID) system with a time-division multiplexer to reduce wire count, and matching room-temperature electronics to condition and transmit signals to the data acquisition system. Sensitivity and systematics requirements are being developed for the detector and readout system over wide range of observing bands (20 to 300 GHz) and optical powers to accomplish CMB-S4’s science goals. While the design incorporates the successes of previous generations of CMB instruments, CMB-S4 requires an order of magnitude more detectors than any prior experiment. This requires fabrication of complex superconducting circuits on over 10 m2 of silicon, as well as significant amounts of precision wiring, assembly and cryogenic testing

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2018

The design of the MEG II experiment

The MEG experiment, designed to search for the μ + → e + γ decay, completed data-taking in 2013 reaching a sensitivity level of 5.3 × 10 − 13 for the branching ratio. In order to increase the sensitivity reach of the experiment by an order of magnitude to the level of 6 × 10 − 14 , a total upgrade, involving substantial changes to the experiment, has been undertaken, known as MEG II. We present both the motivation for the upgrade and a detailed overview of the design of the experiment and of the expected detector performance.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Conceptual Design and Performance Considerations for Superconducting Magnets in the Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment

An important step toward the advent of nuclear fusion as a future power source is the development of plasmafacing materials that can function as designed for a long period of time. While ITER and other devices including Wendelstein 7-X and the Joint European Torus will provide insight into divertor and first wall performance, a dedicated device to advance the understanding of material performance in the representative plasma environments is needed. The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment has been proposed as a linear plasma device to generate and to direct fusion reactor-like plasma energy and particle flux at the target materials with electron temperatures of 1-15 eV and electron densities of 10 20 -10 21 m -3 . Given that the requirements for radio frequency (RF) heating on-axis field are no greater than 2.5 T and the warm bore diameters must be between 60 cm and 1.5 m, the conceptual design was developed for the experiments on a set of superconducting magnets carried out using commercially available NbTi superconductors. This conceptual design evaluated the cryogenic heat loads, mechanical loads, and quench protection to ensure that the current design is compatible with current technologies. In addition, an alternative evaluation of this design relative to ReBCO high-temperature superconducting magnets determined the conditions under which these technologies could be advantageous.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Goal-oriented optimal design of experiments for large-scale Bayesian linear inverse problems

We develop a framework for goal-oriented optimal design of experiments (GOODE) for large-scale Bayesian linear inverse problems governed by PDEs. This framework differs from classical Bayesian optimal design of experiments (ODE) in the following sense: we seek experimental designs that minimize the posterior uncertainty in the experiment end-goal, e.g. a quantity of interest (QoI), rather than the estimated parameter itself. This is suitable for scenarios in which the solution of an inverse problem is an intermediate step and the estimated parameter is then used to compute a QoI. In such problems, a GOODE approach has two benefits: the designs can avoid wastage of experimental resources by a targeted collection of data, and the resulting design criteria are computationally easier to evaluate due to the often low-dimensionality of the QoIs. We present two modified design criteria, A-GOODE and D-GOODE, which are natural analogues of classical Bayesian A- and D-optimal criteria. We analyze the connections to other ODE criteria, and provide interpretations for the GOODE criteria by using tools from information theory. Then, we develop an efficient gradient-based optimization framework for solving the GOODE optimization problems. Additionally, we present comprehensive numerical experiments testing the various aspects of the presented approach. The driving application is the optimal placement of sensors to identify the source of contaminants in a diffusion and transport problem. As a result, we enforce sparsity of the sensor placements using an L1-norm penalty approach, and propose a practical strategy for specifying the associated penalty parameter.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Best Bang for the Buck: Part 1 – The Size of Experiments Relative to Design Performance

There are many choices to make, when designing an experiment for a study, such as: what design factors to consider, which levels of the factors to use and which model to focus on. One aspect of design, however, is often left unquestioned: the size of the experiment. When learning about design of experiments, problems are often posed as "select a design for a particular objective with N runs." It’s tempting to consider the design size as a given constraint in the design-selection process. If you think of learning through designed experiments as a sequential process, however, strategically planning for the use of resources at different stages of data collection can be beneficial: Saving experimental runs for later is advantageous if you can efficiently learn with less in the early stages. Alternatively, if you’re too frugal in the early stages, you might not learn enough to proceed confidently with the next stages. Therefore, choosing the right-sized experiment is important—not too large or too small, but with a thoughtful balance to maximize the knowledge gained given the available resources. It can be a great advantage to think about the design size as flexible and include it as an aspect for comparisons. Sometimes you’re asked to provide a small design that is too ambitious for the goals of the study. Finally, if you can show quantitatively how the suggested design size might be inadequate or lead to problems during analysis—and also offer a formal comparison to some alternatives of different (likely larger) sizes—you may have a better chance to ask for additional resources to deliver statistically sound and satisfying results

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Characterization of Covetic Materials for Process Control. Final CRADA report

GDC Industries LLC has been performing process research on covetic materials since its formation in February 2015. With assistance from DOE and the Air Force via SBIR projects, GDC focused on the enhancement of aluminum alloys to covetics to replicate a previously reported electrical conductivity of about 67% IACS (International Annealed Copper Standard). GDC has established a joint development agreement with General Cable Corporation, wherein General Cable agreed to perform numerous extrusions of as cast covetics and subsequent tensile and electrical conductivity tests on the resultant wire. Covetics conversion was proven but the significant improvement is yet to be replicated. To control the experiments towards enhanced process control, a series of designed experiments was created by an expert in process control from the automotive industry. Six process variables were identified and a designed experiment matrix requiring 18 independent conversions was created at GDC. The result of those designed experiments has now allowed GDC to focus on two process variables, namely, residence time and DC current in the conversions with the other four variable held constant. While this work is useful in replicating the earlier enhancements, GDC feels it will not be sufficient for the necessary process knowhow for scale up required by industry as GDC still does not have a direct correlation of the process variables to the actual carbon in the finished covetics. Since 2015, GDC has been aware of the capabilities existing at Argonne National Laboratory for performing carbon analysis that exceeds the precision commonly available to Industry. GDC and ANL submitted a proposal in response to the DOE-EERE – Small Business Vouchers Pliot Program announcement and the proposal was selected for funding. GDC will melt-process covetic aluminum samples following their design of experiment criteria and have the as-casted samples extruded by their partner, General Cable. Argonne will measure the conductivity, analyze carbon content, perform X-ray diffraction, and examine the microstructural features of the samples. Careful process variable measurements will be recorded by each party such that correlations can be developed indicating process parameters that yield the best carbon concentration in covetics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

A scalable design of experiments framework for optimal sensor placement

Here, we present a scalable design of an experiments framework for sensor placement in systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs). In particular, we aim to compute optimal sensor locations by minimizing the uncertainty of parameters estimated from Bayesian inverse problems and where the system. The resulting problem is a computationally intractable mixed-integer nonlinear program constrained by PDEs. We approach this problem with two heuristics used in compressed sensing and optimal control literature: a sparsity-inducing approach and a sum-up rounding approach. We also investigate metrics to guide the design of experiments (the total flow variance and the A-optimal design criterion) and analyze the effect of different noise structures (white and colored). Using an application in natural gas pipelines, we conclude that the sum-up rounding approach approach gives the best results and produces shrinking gaps with increasing mesh resolution. We also observe that convergence for the white noise measurement error case is slower than for the colored noise case. For A-optimal design, the solution is close to a uniform distribution of sensors along the pipeline while for the flow variance design the distribution is unstructured.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2014

Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-5/6/7 Fuel Irradiation Experiments in the Advanced Test Reactor

The United States Department of Energy’s Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification Program will be irradiating up to seven separate low enriched uranium (LEU) tri-isotopic (TRISO) particle fuel (in compact form) experiments in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). These irradiations and fuel development are being accomplished to support development of the next generation reactors in the United States. The goals of the irradiation experiments are to provide irradiation performance data to support fuel process development, to qualify fuel for normal operating conditions, to support development and validation of fuel performance and fission product transport models and codes, and to provide irradiated fuel and materials for post irradiation examination (PIE) and safety testing. The experiments, which each consist of at least five separate capsules, are being irradiated in an inert sweep gas atmosphere with individual on-line temperature monitoring and control of each capsule. The sweep gases also have on-line fission product monitoring the effluent from each capsule to track performance of the fuel during irradiation. The first two experiments (designated AGR-1 and AGR-2), have been completed. The third and fourth experiments have been combined into a single experiment designated AGR-3/4, which started its irradiation in December 2011 and is currently scheduled to be completed in April 2014. The design of the fuel qualification experiment, designated AGR-5/6/7, is well underway and incorporates lessons learned from the three previous experiments. Various design issues will be discussed with particular details related to selection of thermometry.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging design of experiments to build chemometric models for the quantification of uranium (VI) and HNO3 by Raman spectroscopy

Partial least squares regression (PLSR) and support vector regression (SVR) models were optimized for the quantification of U(VI) (10–320 g L −1 ) and HNO 3 (0.6–6 M) by Raman spectroscopy with optimized calibration sets chosen by optimal design of experiments. The designed approach effectively minimized the number of samples in the calibration set for PLSR and SVR by selecting sample concentrations with a quadratic process model, despite complex confounding and covarying spectral features in the spectra. The top PLS2 model resulted in percent root mean square errors of prediction for U(VI), HNO 3 , and NO 3 − of 3.7%, 3.6%, and 2.9%, respectively. PLS1 models performed similarly despite modeling an analyte with a majority linear response (i.e., uranyl symmetric stretch) and another with more covarying vibrational modes (i.e., HNO 3 ). Partial least squares (PLS) model loadings and regression coefficients were evaluated to better understand the relationship between weaker Raman bands and covarying spectral features. Support vector machine models outperformed PLS1 models, resulting in percent root mean square error of prediction values for U(VI) and HNO 3 of 1.5% and 3.1%, respectively. The optimal nonlinear SVR model was trained using a similar number of samples (11) compared with the PLSR model, even though PLS is a linear modeling approach. The generic D-optimal design presented in this work provides a robust statistical framework for selecting training set samples in disparate two-factor systems. This approach reinforces Raman spectroscopy for the quantification of species relevant to the nuclear fuel cycle and provides a robust chemometric modeling approach to bolster online monitoring in challenging process environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2014

Exact reconstruction of gene regulatory networks using compressive sensing

We consider the problem of reconstructing a gene regulatory network structure from limited time series gene expression data, without any a priori knowledge of connectivity. We assume that the network is sparse, meaning the connectivity among genes is much less than full connectivity. We develop a method for network reconstruction based on compressive sensing, which takes advantage of the network’s sparseness. For the case in which all genes are accessible for measurement, and there is no measurement noise, we show that our method can be used to exactly reconstruct the network. For the more general problem, in which hidden genes exist and all measurements are contaminated by noise, we show that our method leads to reliable reconstruction. In both cases, coherence of the model is used to assess the ability to reconstruct the network and to design new experiments. We demonstrate that it is possible to use the coherence distribution to guide biological experiment design effectively. By collecting a more informative dataset, the proposed method helps reduce the cost of experiments. For each problem, a set of numerical examples is presented. The method provides a guarantee on how well the inferred graph structure represents the underlying system, reveals deficiencies in the data and model, and suggests experimental directions to remedy the deficiencies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Bayesian Design of Experiments for Logistic Regression to Evaluate Multiple Forensic Algorithms

When evaluating the performance of several forensic classification algorithms, it is desirable to construct a design that considers a variety of performance levels for each of the algorithms. We describe a strategy to use Bayesian design of experiments with multiple prior estimates to capture anticipated performance. Our goal is to characterize results from the different classification algorithms as a function of multiple explanatory variables and use this to choose a design about which units to test. Bayesian design of experiments has been successful for generalized linear models, including logistic regression models. Here, we develop methodology for the case where there are several potentially nonoverlapping priors for anticipated performance under consideration. The weighted priors method performs well for a broad range of true underlying model parameter choices and is more robust when compared to other candidate design choices. Additionally, we show how this can be applied in the multivariate input case and provide some useful summary measures. The shared information plot is used to evaluate design point allocation, and the D-value difference plot allows for the comparison of design performance across multiple potential parameter values in higher dimensions. Here, we illustrate the methods with several examples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗