Results for “Design under uncertainty” — Page 8

NASA NTRS2017

Summary Findings from the AVT-191 Project to Assess Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Military Vehicle Design

A NATO symposium held in Greece in 2008 identified many promising sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification technologies, but the maturity and suitability of these methods for realistic applications was not clear. The NATO Science and Technology Organization, Task Group AVT-191 was established to evaluate the maturity and suitability of various sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification methods for application to realistic vehicle development problems. The program ran from 2011 to 2015, and the work was organized into four discipline-centric teams: external aerodynamics, internal aerodynamics, aeroelasticity, and hydrodynamics. This paper summarizes findings and lessons learned from the task group.

Benek, John A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Exploration of Advanced Probabilistic and Stochastic Design Methods

The primary objective of the three year research effort was to explore advanced, non-deterministic aerospace system design methods that may have relevance to designers and analysts. The research pursued emerging areas in design methodology and leverage current fundamental research in the area of design decision-making, probabilistic modeling, and optimization. The specific focus of the three year investigation was oriented toward methods to identify and analyze emerging aircraft technologies in a consistent and complete manner, and to explore means to make optimal decisions based on this knowledge in a probabilistic environment. The research efforts were classified into two main areas. First, Task A of the grant has had the objective of conducting research into the relative merits of possible approaches that account for both multiple criteria and uncertainty in design decision-making. In particular, in the final year of research, the focus was on the comparison and contrasting between three methods researched. Specifically, these three are the Joint Probabilistic Decision-Making (JPDM) technique, Physical Programming, and Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory. The next element of the research, as contained in Task B, was focused upon exploration of the Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES) methodology developed at ASDL, especially with regards to identification of research needs in the baseline method through implementation exercises. The end result of Task B was the documentation of the evolution of the method with time and a technology transfer to the sponsor regarding the method, such that an initial capability for execution could be obtained by the sponsor. Specifically, the results of year 3 efforts were the creation of a detailed tutorial for implementing the TIES method. Within the tutorial package, templates and detailed examples were created for learning and understanding the details of each step. For both research tasks, sample files and tutorials are attached in electronic form with the enclosed CD.

Marvis, Dimitri N.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Exploration of Advanced Probabilistic and Stochastic Design Methods

The primary objective of the three year research effort was to explore advanced, non-deterministic aerospace system design methods that may have relevance to designers and analysts. The research pursued emerging areas in design methodology and leverage current fundamental research in the area of design decision-making, probabilistic modeling, and optimization. The specific focus of the three year investigation was oriented toward methods to identify and analyze emerging aircraft technologies in a consistent and complete manner, and to explore means to make optimal decisions based on this knowledge in a probabilistic environment. The research efforts were classified into two main areas. First, Task A of the grant has had the objective of conducting research into the relative merits of possible approaches that account for both multiple criteria and uncertainty in design decision-making. In particular, in the final year of research, the focus was on the comparison and contrasting between three methods researched. Specifically, these three are the Joint Probabilistic Decision-Making (JPDM) technique, Physical Programming, and Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory. The next element of the research, as contained in Task B, was focused upon exploration of the Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES) methodology developed at ASDL, especially with regards to identification of research needs in the baseline method through implementation exercises. The end result of Task B was the documentation of the evolution of the method with time and a technology transfer to the sponsor regarding the method, such that an initial capability for execution could be obtained by the sponsor. Specifically, the results of year 3 efforts were the creation of a detailed tutorial for implementing the TIES method. Within the tutorial package, templates and detailed examples were created for learning and understanding the details of each step. For both research tasks, sample files and tutorials are attached in electronic form with the enclosed CD.

Mavris, Dimitri N.↗

DOE OSTI2025

MLCommons Science Benchmarks

Benchmarks are a cornerstone of modern machine learning practice, providing standardized eval- uations that enable reproducibility, comparison, and scientific progress. Yet, as AI systems particularly deep learning models become increasingly dynamic, traditional static benchmarking approaches are losing their relevance. Models rapidly evolve in architecture, scale, and capability; datasets shift; and deployment contexts continuously change, creating a moving target for evaluation. Without adaptive benchmarking frame- works, both scientific assessment and real-world de- ployment risk becoming misaligned with actual system behavior. Drawing on our experience from MLCommons, educa- tional initiatives, and government programs such as the DOE s Million Parameter Consortium, we identify key barriers that hinder the broader adoption and utility of benchmarking in AI. These include substantial resource demands, limited access to specialized hardware, lack of expertise in benchmark design, and uncertainty among practitioners about how to relate benchmark results to their own application domains. Moreover, current benchmarks often emphasize peak performance on leadership-class hardware, offering limited guidance for more diverse, real-world deployment scenarios. We argue that benchmarking itself must become dy- namic in order to incorporate evolving models, updated data, and heterogeneous computational platforms while maintaining transparency, reproducibility, and inter- pretability. Democratizing this process requires not only technical innovation, but also systematic educational efforts spanning undergraduate to professional levels to develop sustained expertise in benchmark design and use. Finally, benchmarks should be framed and com- municated to support application-relevant comparisons, enabling both developers and users to make informed, context-sensitive decisions. Advancing dynamic and inclusive benchmarking practices will be essential to ensure that evaluation keeps pace with the evolving AI landscape and supports responsible, reproducible, and accessible AI deployment.

Hawks, Benjamin G. [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Motivations for early high-profile FRIB experiments

This white paper is the result of a collaboration by many of those that attended a workshop at the facility for rare isotope beams (FRIB), organized by the FRIB Theory Alliance (FRIB-TA), on ‘Theoretical Justifications and Motivations for Early High-Profile FRIB Experiments’. It covers a wide range of topics related to the science that will be explored at FRIB. After a brief introduction, the sections address: section 2: Overview of theoretical methods, section 3: Experimental capabilities, section 4: Structure, section 5: Near-threshold Physics, section 6: Reaction mechanisms, section 7: Nuclear equations of state, section 8: Nuclear astrophysics, section 9: Fundamental symmetries, and section 10: Experimental design and uncertainty quantification.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of Anomalous Thread Wear in EDS Vessels

Potential causes of anomalous thread wear observed on EDS system fasteners were investigated using the V25 two-piece clamped vessel as a test bed. Thread wear and metal particulate were analyzed across operational conditions. Despite intensive testing, galling wear was not triggered, reducing uncertainty about design tolerances, material selection, and environmental factors. Minimum service life benchmarks were established for two-piece clamp fasteners under normal EDS conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Conjugate Heat Transfer Modeling of Salt-Filled Fuel Pins for Stable Salt Reactor Safety Analysis

The Stable Salt Reactor (SSR) combines the proven structural design of light water reactor fuel assemblies with the inherent safety and fuel-cycle advantages of molten salt technology. In its fast reactor configuration, the SSR utilizes recycled nuclear waste as fuel, sealed within narrow salt-filled fuel pins and cooled by a surrounding liquid salt coolant. Reliable transfer of heat from the molten fuel salt through the cladding to the external coolant is essential for both reactor safety and performance. This work investigates conjugate heat transfer (CHT) in the SSR’s salt-filled fuel pins using NekRS, a high-fidelity spectral element computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver. The analyses capture internal natural convection within the molten fuel salt and external forced convection in the coolant, under steady-state and transient operating conditions. Parametric studies evaluate how variations in reactor power and coolant flow rate influence heat transfer distributions and system response. The high-fidelity CFD results are time-averaged and post-processed for direct comparison with moderate-fidelity Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) models, and for the development of reduced-order models within the SAM system code. These validated models support fast-running safety analyses of normal and off-normal transients, improving predictive capability for key safety margins. By integrating advanced CFD with system-level safety tools, this study strengthens the modeling framework for SSR design, reduces uncertainty in molten salt CHT simulations, and accelerates the engineering and licensing of next-generation nuclear reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1981

Tuned feedback damping with application to the Galileo spacecraft

An adaptive controller has been developed which uses phase-locked-loops as the adaptive devices. The controller provides active damping to systems which have their underdamped frequencies known only to within a particular range (e.g. plus or minus 20% uncertainty). The design and analysis of the controller is presented along with an application of such a controller to the scan platform pointing system of the Galileo spacecraft, a system with sensors and actuators separated by flexible structure.

Macala, G. A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Minimum impulse limit cycle design to compensate for measurement uncertainties

Previously cited in issue 19, p. 2997, Accession no. A82-38972

Kubiak, E. T.↗

NASA NTRS1993

NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center's testbed for CCSDS compatible systems

A testbed for flight and ground systems compatible with the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) Recommendations has been developed at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. The subsystems of an end-to-end CCSDS based data system are being developed. All return link CCSDS telemetry services (except Internet) and both versions of the CCSDS frame formats are being implemented. In key areas of uncertainty, multiple design approaches are being performed. In addition, key flight-qualifiable hardware components, such as Reed-Solomon encoders, are being developed to complement the testbed element development. The testbed and its capabilities are described. The method of dissemination of the testbed results are given, as are plans to make the testbed capabilities available to outside users. Plans for the development of standardized conformance and compatibility tests are provided.

Carper, Richard D.↗

NASA NTRS1999

First International Symposium on Strain Gauge Balances

The first International Symposium on Strain Gauge Balances was sponsored and held at NASA Langley Research Center during October 22-25, 1996. The symposium provided an open international forum for presentation, discussion, and exchange of technical information among wind tunnel test technique specialists and strain gauge balance designers. The Symposium also served to initiate organized professional activities among the participating and relevant international technical communities. Over 130 delegates from 15 countries were in attendance. The program opened with a panel discussion, followed by technical paper sessions, and guided tours of the National Transonic Facility (NTF) wind tunnel, a local commercial balance fabrication facility, and the LaRC balance calibration laboratory. The opening panel discussion addressed "Future Trends in Balance Development and Applications." Forty-six technical papers were presented in 11 technical sessions covering the following areas: calibration, automatic calibration, data reduction, facility reports, design, accuracy and uncertainty analysis, strain gauges, instrumentation, balance design, thermal effects, finite element analysis, applications, and special balances. At the conclusion of the Symposium, a steering committee representing most of the nations and several U.S. organizations attending the Symposium was established to initiate planning for a second international balance symposium, to be held in 1999 in the UK.

John S Tripp↗

NASA NTRS1999

First International Symposium on Strain Gauge Balances

The first International Symposium on Strain Gauge Balances was sponsored and held at NASA Langley Research Center during October 22-25, 1996. The symposium provided an open international forum for presentation, discussion, and exchange of technical information among wind tunnel test technique specialists and strain gauge balance designers. The Symposium also served to initiate organized professional activities among the participating and relevant international technical communities. Over 130 delegates from 15 countries were in attendance. The program opened with a panel discussion, followed by technical paper sessions, and guided tours of the National Transonic Facility (NTF) wind tunnel, a local commercial balance fabrication facility, and the LaRC balance calibration laboratory. The opening panel discussion addressed "Future Trends in Balance Development and Applications." Forty-six technical papers were presented in 11 technical sessions covering the following areas: calibration, automatic calibration, data reduction, facility reports, design, accuracy and uncertainty analysis, strain gauges, instrumentation, balance design, thermal effects, finite element analysis, applications, and special balances. At the conclusion of the Symposium, a steering committee representing most of the nations and several U.S. organizations attending the Symposium was established to initiate planning for a second international balance symposium, to be held in 1999 in the UK.

Tripp, John S↗

NASA NTRS2001

Reliability of a Series Pipe Network

The goal of this NASA-funded research is to advance research and education objectives in theoretical and computational probabilistic structural analysis, reliability, and life prediction methods for improved aerospace and aircraft propulsion system components. Reliability methods are used to quantify response uncertainties due to inherent uncertainties in design variables. In this report, several reliability methods are applied to a series pipe network. The observed responses are the head delivered by a main pump and the line head at a desired flow rate. The probability that the flow rate in the line will be less than a specified minimum will be discussed.

Harris, Rodney↗

NASA NTRS2001

Reliability of a Parallel Pipe Network

The goal of this NASA-funded research is to advance research and education objectives in theoretical and computational probabilistic structural analysis, reliability, and life prediction methods for improved aerospace and aircraft propulsion system components. Reliability methods are used to quantify response uncertainties due to inherent uncertainties in design variables. In this report, several reliability methods are applied to a parallel pipe network. The observed responses are the head delivered by a main pump and the head values of two parallel lines at certain flow rates. The probability that the flow rates in the lines will be less than their specified minimums will be discussed.

Herrera, Edgar↗

NASA NTRS2002

Variable Complexity Optimization of Composite Structures

The use of several levels of modeling in design has been dubbed variable complexity modeling. The work under the grant focused on developing variable complexity modeling strategies with emphasis on response surface techniques. Applications included design of stiffened composite plates for improved damage tolerance, the use of response surfaces for fitting weights obtained by structural optimization, and design against uncertainty using response surface techniques.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Structural Reliability Using Probability Density Estimation Methods Within NESSUS

A reliability analysis studies a mathematical model of a physical system taking into account uncertainties of design variables and common results are estimations of a response density, which also implies estimations of its parameters. Some common density parameters include the mean value, the standard deviation, and specific percentile(s) of the response, which are measures of central tendency, variation, and probability regions, respectively. Reliability analyses are important since the results can lead to different designs by calculating the probability of observing safe responses in each of the proposed designs. All of this is done at the expense of added computational time as compared to a single deterministic analysis which will result in one value of the response out of many that make up the density of the response. Sampling methods, such as monte carlo (MC) and latin hypercube sampling (LHS), can be used to perform reliability analyses and can compute nonlinear response density parameters even if the response is dependent on many random variables. Hence, both methods are very robust; however, they are computationally expensive to use in the estimation of the response density parameters. Both methods are 2 of 13 stochastic methods that are contained within the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) program. NESSUS is a probabilistic finite element analysis (FEA) program that was developed through funding from NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). It has the additional capability of being linked to other analysis programs; therefore, probabilistic fluid dynamics, fracture mechanics, and heat transfer are only a few of what is possible with this software. The LHS method is the newest addition to the stochastic methods within NESSUS. Part of this work was to enhance NESSUS with the LHS method. The new LHS module is complete, has been successfully integrated with NESSUS, and been used to study four different test cases that have been proposed by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE). The test cases compare different probabilistic methods within NESSUS because it is important that a user can have confidence that estimates of stochastic parameters of a response will be within an acceptable error limit. For each response, the mean, standard deviation, and 0.99 percentile, are repeatedly estimated which allows confidence statements to be made for each parameter estimated, and for each method. Thus, the ability of several stochastic methods to efficiently and accurately estimate density parameters is compared using four valid test cases. While all of the reliability methods used performed quite well, for the new LHS module within NESSUS it was found that it had a lower estimation error than MC when they were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, and 0.99 percentile of the four different stochastic responses. Also, LHS required a smaller amount of calculations to obtain low error answers with a high amount of confidence than MC. It can therefore be stated that NESSUS is an important reliability tool that has a variety of sound probabilistic methods a user can employ and the newest LHS module is a valuable new enhancement of the program.

Chamis, Chrisos C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Thruster Limitation Consideration for Formation Flight Control

Physical constraints of any real system can have a drastic effect on its performance. Some of the more recognized constraints are actuator and sensor saturation and bandwidth, power consumption, sampling rate (sensor and control-loop) and computation limits. These constraints can degrade system s performance, such as settling time, overshoot, rising time, and stability margins. In order to address these issues, researchers have investigated the use of robust and nonlinear controllers that can incorporate uncertainty and constraints into a controller design. For instance, uncertainties can be addressed in the synthesis model used in such algorithms as H(sub infinity), or mu. There is a significant amount of literature addressing this type of problem. However, there is one constraint that has not often been considered; that is, actuator authority resolution. In this work, thruster resolution and controller schemes to compensate for this effect are investigated for position and attitude control of a Low Earth Orbit formation flight system. In many academic problems, actuators are assumed to have infinite resolution. In real system applications, such as formation flight systems, the system actuators will not have infinite resolution. High-precision formation flying requires the relative position and the relative attitude to be controlled on the order of millimeters and arc-seconds, respectively. Therefore, the minimum force resolution is a significant concern in this application. Without the sufficient actuator resolution, the system may be unable to attain the required pointing and position precision control. Furthermore, fuel may be wasted due to high-frequency chattering phenomena when attempting to provide a fine control with inadequate actuators. To address this issue, a Sliding Mode Controller is developed along with the boundary Layer Control to provide the best control resolution constraints. A Genetic algorithm is used to optimize the controller parameters according to the states error and fuel consumption criterion. The tradeoffs and effects of the minimum force limitation on performance are studied and compared to the case without the limitation. Furthermore, two methods are proposed to reduce chattering and improve precision.

Yunjun Xu↗

NASA NTRS2004

Uncertainty Analysis on Heat Transfer Correlations for RP-1 Fuel in Copper Tubing

NASA is studying kerosene (RP-1) for application in Next Generation Launch Technology (NGLT). Accurate heat transfer correlations in narrow passages at high temperatures and pressures are needed. Hydrocarbon fuels, such as RP-1, produce carbon deposition (coke) along the inside of tube walls when heated to high temperatures. A series of tests to measure the heat transfer using RP-1 fuel and examine the coking were performed in NASA Glenn Research Center's Heated Tube Facility. The facility models regenerative cooling by flowing room temperature RP-1 through resistively heated copper tubing. A Regression analysis is performed on the data to determine the heat transfer correlation for Nusselt number as a function of Reynolds and Prandtl numbers. Each measurement and calculation is analyzed to identify sources of uncertainty, including RP-1 property variations. Monte Carlo simulation is used to determine how each uncertainty source propagates through the regression and an overall uncertainty in predicted heat transfer coefficient. The implications of these uncertainties on engine design and ways to minimize existing uncertainties are discussed.

Driscoll, E. A.↗