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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Applying Waveform Correlation and Waveform Template Metadata to Aftershocks in the Middle East to Reduce Analyst Workload

Organizations that monitor for underground nuclear explosive tests are interested in techniques that automatically characterize recurring events such as aftershocks to reduce the human analyst effort required to produce high-quality event bulletins. Waveform correlation is a technique that is effective in finding similar waveforms from repeating seismic events. In this study, we apply waveform correlation in combination with template event metadata to two aftershock sequences in the Middle East to seek corroborating detections from multiple stations in the International Monitoring System of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization. We use waveform templates from stations that are within regional distance of aftershock sequences to detect subsequent events, then use template event metadata to discover what stations are likely to record corroborating arrival waveforms for recurring aftershock events at the same location, and develop additional waveform templates to seek corroborating detections. We evaluate the results with the goal of determining whether applying the method to aftershock events will improve the choice of waveform correlation detections that lead to bulletin-worthy events and reduction of analyst effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Synthase-selected sorting approach identifies a beta-lactone synthase in a nudibranch symbiotic bacterium

Background - Nudibranchs comprise a group of > 6000 marine soft-bodied mollusk species known to use secondary metabolites (natural products) for chemical defense. The full diversity of these metabolites and whether symbiotic microbes are responsible for their synthesis remains unexplored. Another issue in searching for undiscovered natural products is that computational analysis of genomes of uncultured microbes can result in detection of novel biosynthetic gene clusters; however, their in vivo functionality is not guaranteed which limits further exploration of their pharmaceutical or industrial potential. To overcome these challenges, we used a fluorescent pantetheine probe, which produces a fluorescent CoA-analog employed in biosynthesis of secondary metabolites, to label and capture bacterial symbionts actively producing these compounds in the mantle of the nudibranch Doriopsilla fulva. Results - We recovered the genome of Candidatus Doriopsillibacter californiensis from the Ca. Tethybacterales order, an uncultured lineage of sponge symbionts not found in nudibranchs previously. It forms part of the core skin microbiome of D. fulva and is nearly absent in its internal organs. We showed that crude extracts of D. fulva contained secondary metabolites that were consistent with the presence of a beta-lactone encoded in Ca. D. californiensis genome. Beta-lactones represent an underexplored group of secondary metabolites with pharmaceutical potential that have not been reported in nudibranchs previously. Conclusions - Altogether, this study shows how probe-based, targeted sorting approaches can capture bacterial symbionts producing secondary metabolites in vivo.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Genome integrity sensing by the broad-spectrum Hachiman antiphage defense complex

Hachiman is a broad-spectrum antiphage defense system of unknown function. We show here that Hachiman is a heterodimeric nuclease-helicase complex, HamAB. HamA, previously a protein of unknown function, is the effector nuclease. HamB is the sensor helicase. HamB constrains HamA activity during surveillance of intact double-stranded DNA (dsDNA). When the HamAB complex detects DNA damage, HamB helicase activity activates HamA, unleashing nuclease activity. Hachiman activation degrades all DNA in the cell, creating "phantom" cells devoid of both phage and host DNA. We demonstrate Hachiman activation in the absence of phage by treatment with DNA-damaging agents, suggesting that Hachiman responds to aberrant DNA states. Phylogenetic similarities between the Hachiman helicase and enzymes from eukaryotes and archaea suggest deep functional symmetries with other important helicases across domains of life.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Collaboration and Negotiation

Collaboration and Negotiation is a critical high-level function of an Autonomous Intelligent Cyber-Defense Agent (AICA) that enables communication among agents, central cyber C2, and human operators. Maintaining the Confidentiality, Integrity, and Availability (CIA) triad while achieving mission goals requires stealthy AICA agents to exercise: 1) minimal communication as needed for avoiding detection, 2) verification of information received with possibly limited resources, and 3) active learning during operations to address dynamic conditions. Moreover, negotiations to jointly identify and execute a Course of Action (COA) solution will require building consensus under distributed and/or decentralized multiagent settings with information uncertainties. This chapter presents algorithmic approaches for enabling the collaboration and negotiation function. Strengths and limitations of potential techniques are identified, and a representative example is illustrated. Recommendations for future development are also discussed.

Chatterjee, Samrat↗
DOE OSTI2021

Total Moisture Analysis of Salts by Dissolution

This report discusses recent efforts within TA-48 in developing a robust, defensible, and straightforward procedure for determining the moisture content of alkali and alkaline metal halide salts utilizing a total dissolution Karl-Fischer titration method. Utilizing statistical analysis of blank and dissolved salt samples, we determine a (3 sigma) detection limit of 67 micrograms H 2 O/g salt, and a (10 sigma) quantification limit of 160 micrograms H 2 O/g salt. Several salts are analyzed, and suggestions for future efforts are given.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detecting Electrical Anomalies via Overlapping Measurements

As cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure become more frequent, it is increasingly important to be able to rapidly identify and respond to these threats. Therefore, we are investigating using multiple independent systems with overlapping electrical measurements to more rapidly identify anomalies. While prior research has explored the benefits of fusing measurements, the possibility of overlapping measurements from an existing electrical system has not been investigated. To that end, we explore the potential benefits of combining overlapping measurements both to improve the speed/accuracy of anomaly detection and to provide additional validation of collected measurements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

The foxtail millet ( Setaria italica ) terpene synthase gene family

Terpenoid metabolism plays vital roles in stress defense and the environmental adaptation of monocot crops. Here, we describe the identification of the terpene synthase (TPS) gene family of the panicoid food and bioenergy model crop foxtail millet (Setaria italica). The diploid S. italica genome contains 32 TPS genes, 17 of which were biochemically characterized in this study. Unlike other thus far investigated grasses, S. italica contains TPSs producing all three ent-, (+)- and syn-copalyl pyrophosphate stereoisomers that naturally occur as central building blocks in the biosynthesis of distinct monocot diterpenoids. Conversion of these intermediates by the promiscuous TPS SiTPS8 yielded different diterpenoid scaffolds. Additionally, a cytochrome P450 monooxygenase (CYP99A17), which genomically clustered with SiTPS8, catalyzes the C19 hydroxylation of SiTPS8 products to generate the corresponding diterpene alcohols. The presence of syntenic orthologs to about 19% of the S. italica TPSs in related grasses supports a common ancestry of selected pathway branches. Among the identified enzyme products, abietadien-19-ol, syn-pimara-7,15-dien-19-ol and germacrene-D-4-ol were detectable in planta, and gene expression analysis of the biosynthetic TPSs showed distinct and, albeit moderately, inducible expression patterns in response to biotic and abiotic stress. In vitro growth-inhibiting activity of abietadien-19-ol and syn-pimara-7,15-dien-19-ol against Fusarium verticillioides and Fusarium subglutinans may indicate pathogen defensive functions, whereas the low antifungal efficacy of tested sesquiterpenoids supports other bioactivities. Together, these findings expand the known chemical space of monocot terpenoid metabolism to enable further investigations of terpenoid-mediated stress resilience in these agriculturally important species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prevalence of Self-Reported Voice Concerns and Associated Risk Markers in a Nonclinical Sample of Military Service Members

Introduction: Difficult communication environments are common in military settings, and effective voice use can be critical to mission success. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of self-reported voice disorders among U.S. military service members and to identify factors that contribute to their voice concerns. Method: A nonclinical sample of 4,123 active-duty service members was recruited across Department of Defense hearing conservation clinics. During their required annual hearing evaluation, volunteers provided responses to voice-related questions including a slightly adapted version of the Voice Handicap Index-10 (VHI-10) as part of a larger survey about communication issues. Changepoint detection was applied to age and years of service to explore cohort effects in the reporting of voice concerns. Logistic regression analyses examined multiple available factors related to communication to identify factors associated with abnormal results on the VHI-10. Results: Among the respondents, 41% reported experiencing vocal hoarseness or fatigue at least several times per year, and 8.2% ( n = 336) scored above the recommended abnormal cut-point value of 11 on the VHI-10. Factors independently associated with the greatest risk for self-reported voice concerns were sex (female), cadmium exposure, vocal demands (the need for a strong, clear voice), and auditory health measures (frequency of experiencing temporary threshold shifts; self-reported hearing difficulties). Conclusions: Based on self-reported voice concerns and false negative rates reported in the literature, the prevalence of dysphonia in a large sample of active-duty service members is estimated to be 11.7%, which is higher than that in the general population. Certain predictors for voice concerns were expected based on previous literature, like female sex and voice use, but frequency of temporary threshold shifts and exposure to cadmium were surprising. The strong link between voice and auditory problems has particular implications regarding the need for effective communication in high-noise military and other occupational environments.

Audiology & Speech-Language Pathology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Relative reproductive phenology and synchrony affect neonate survival in a nonprecocial ungulate

Abstract Degree of reproductive synchronization in prey is hypothesized as a predator defense strategy reducing prey risk via predator satiation or predator avoidance. Species with precocial young, especially those exposed to specialist predators, should be highly synchronous to satiate predators (predator satiation hypothesis), while prey with nonprecocial (i.e. altricial) young, especially those exposed to generalist predators, should become relatively asynchronous to avoid predator detection (predator avoidance hypothesis). The white‐tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus in North America is an example of a nonprecocial ungulate that uses the hider strategy early in life; its primary predator (coyote; Canis latrans ) is a generalist, making white‐tailed deer a good model species to test the predator avoidance hypothesis. We used birth dates and known fates of white‐tailed deer neonates ( n = 1,032) across nine study sites varying in relative synchrony and predator assemblages to test the predator avoidance hypothesis. We predicted that relative birthing asynchrony of the population would increase relative survival at the population level; therefore, at the individual scale, neonate birth date nearer to mean birthing date in a respective population would not influence individual survival. Coyotes were responsible for the majority of predation events, and survival of those neonates increased the closer the individual was born to peak birthing season in each respective population. Also, at the population level, reproductive asynchronization negatively affected survival. Contrary to the predator avoidance hypothesis, our data indicate patterns in neonate survival for white‐tailed deer better support the predator satiation hypothesis at the individual and population level. Additionally, coyotes may present a selective force great enough to shift reproductive synchrony such that predator satiation may become a feasible defense strategy for neonates at local spatial scales. Our results indicate that synchronizing reproduction may still be the most effective strategy to reduce individual predation risk from generalist predators, particularly when the window of heightened resource availability to the prey is narrow. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Michel, Eric S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mars Extant Life: What's Next? Conference Report

On November 5–8, 2019, the ‘‘Mars Extant Life: What’s Next?’’ conference was convened in Carlsbad, New Mexico. The conference gathered a community of actively publishing experts in disciplines related to habitability and astrobiology. Primary conclusions are as follows: A significant subset of conference attendees concluded that there is a realistic possibility that Mars hosts indigenous microbial life. A powerful theme that permeated the conference is that the key to the search for martian extant life lies in identifying and exploring refugia (‘‘oases’’), where conditions are either permanently or episodically significantly more hospitable than average. Based on our existing knowledge of Mars, conference participants highlighted four potential martian refugium (not listed in priority order): Caves, Deep Subsurface, Ices, and Salts. The conference group did not attempt to reach a consensus prioritization of these candidate environments, but instead felt that a defensible prioritization would require a future competitive process. Within the context of these candidate environments, we identified a variety of geological search strategies that could narrow the search space. Additionally, we summarized a number of measurement techniques that could be used to detect evidence of extant life (if present). Again, it was not within the scope of the conference to prioritize these measurement techniques—that is best left for the competitive process. We specifically note that the number and sensitivity of detection methods that could be implemented if samples were returned to Earth greatly exceed the methodologies that could be used at Mars. Finally, important lessons to guide extant life search processes can be derived both from experiments carried out in terrestrial laboratories and analog field sites and from theoretical modeling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Burning questions for a warming and changing world: 15 unknowns in plant abiotic stress

Abstract We present unresolved questions in plant abiotic stress biology as posed by 15 research groups with expertise spanning eco-physiology to cell and molecular biology. Common themes of these questions include the need to better understand how plants detect water availability, temperature, salinity, and rising carbon dioxide (CO2) levels; how environmental signals interface with endogenous signaling and development (e.g. circadian clock and flowering time); and how this integrated signaling controls downstream responses (e.g. stomatal regulation, proline metabolism, and growth versus defense balance). The plasma membrane comes up frequently as a site of key signaling and transport events (e.g. mechanosensing and lipid-derived signaling, aquaporins). Adaptation to water extremes and rising CO2 affects hydraulic architecture and transpiration, as well as root and shoot growth and morphology, in ways not fully understood. Environmental adaptation involves tradeoffs that limit ecological distribution and crop resilience in the face of changing and increasingly unpredictable environments. Exploration of plant diversity within and among species can help us know which of these tradeoffs represent fundamental limits and which ones can be circumvented by bringing new trait combinations together. Better defining what constitutes beneficial stress resistance in different contexts and making connections between genes and phenotypes, and between laboratory and field observations, are overarching challenges.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prototype for Unclassified Algorithm

Continuing previous efforts to investigate and develop the Unclassified Radioisotope Algorithm, the goal of the FY19-FY20 effort was to develop a prototype detector system which uses the algorithm to confirm warhead attributes related to the presence of either weapons grade plutonium (WGPu) or highly enriched uranium (HEU). The final deliverable is a prototype attribute measurement system built with common, commercially available gamma radiation detector components, capable of confirming the presence of specific, complex radioactive sources of interest, without the collection and storage of gamma energy spectra. This is accomplished by processing each gamma pulse as it is received, applying weight values based on the energy and incrementing or decrementing scalar counters which can be compared with expected values to determine if the measured source is consistent with WGPu or HEU. This report documents the design of the prototype system as well as the development of the algorithm and performance testing results. While the previously conceptualized, simple algorithm resulted in a prohibitive amount of false positives, the goal for a simple attribute measurement system capable of verifying Ba-133 and Ra-226 (weapons grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium surrogate testing sources) at over 95% accuracy with sub 5% false positive rate was demonstrated.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

Device and system for selective ionization and analyte detection and method of using the same

Disclosed herein are embodiments of a system for selectively ionizing samples that may comprise a plurality of different analytes that are not normally detectable using the same ionization technique. The disclosed system comprises a unique split flow tube that can be coupled with a plurality of ionization sources to facilitate using different ionization techniques for the same sample. Also disclosed herein are embodiments of a method for determining the presence of analytes in a sample, wherein the number and type of detectable analytes that can be identified is increased and sensitivity and selectivity are not sacrificed.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2021

Malware Analysis Report for SolarWinds.Orion.Core.BusinessLayer.dll

SolarWinds Orion is a software suite designed to provide “single pane of glass” monitoring of network devices and applications. On December 13 2020, FireEye revealed that SolarWinds Orion was the victim of a supply chain attack and that the SolarWinds signed file SolarWinds.Orion.Core.BusinessLayer.dll contained a backdoor. SolarWinds deployed the back-doored patch to customers beginning in March 2020. FireEye first identified this backdoor and labeled it SUNBURST. The backdoor is composed of roughly 4,000 lines1 of lightly obfuscated .NET within the SolarWinds.Orion.Core.BusinessLayer.OrionImprovementBusinessLayer class of the malicious dll. The backdoor’s capabilities include: the ability to detect and potentially disable antivirus and forensics tools, basic command and control via DNS, and more advanced command and control via HTTP.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Autonomous System Subversion Tactics: Prototypes and Recommended Countermeasures

One of the fielding requirements for Advanced and Small Modular Reactors (AR/SMR) is the ability to support remote and autonomous operations. Autonomous Control Systems (ACS) are found on platforms such as Autonomous Space Vehicles, Cruise Missiles, and advanced driver-assistance systems. Each of these ACS implementations depends upon a set of decision support subsystems responsible for supporting Autonomous Mission Managers (names vary based upon field and author preferences). These Autonomous Mission Managers receive inputs from system sensors (e.g., LIDAR collection from an automobile travelling down a street; transients from a nuclear reactor), and perform a set of classifications (e.g., Red Traffic Light; Small Pedestrian at 10m; Load Rejection; Single Coolant Pump Trip), and then use these classifications in combination with recommendation algorithms to achieve platform goals (e.g., Stop the Vehicle at the Traffic Light, Avoid the Small Pedestrian; Trip the Reactor to prevent a Safety Event). The design, implementation, and fielding of an ACS capability will alter the cyber-attack surface such that existing risk management plans will need to be updated to include how to protect and defend against data-science and decision-support-system attack classes. These attack classes would include protection of the design and training environments where algorithm selection and testing and training data would be obvious attack vectors. These attack classes would also require an informed set of detection and response procedures to identify anomalous behaviors and document best practices for anomaly assessment and vulnerability mitigation and remediation. Last year we published a Cyber Threat Assessment Methodology for Autonomous and Remote Operations for AR/SMRs along with a companion publication on Cyber Attack and Defense Use Cases. The focus of the methodology was on describing and enumerating ACS processes, components, and functions such that security engineers could: evaluate subversion options against the target; identify threat actor attributes and capabilities derived from each subversion option; and identify security controls and response countermeasures. The Use Cases document offered detailed methodology examples including an assessment of a Military Base SMR, an Autonomous System Decision Loop, and implementation of AR/SMR Machine Learning algorithms. Our proposal at the end of last year was to focus on implementation of subversion prototypes related to the last Use Case area: AR/SMR Machine Learning (ML) Algorithms. We included six attack scenarios in our Use Cases paper: a Poisoning Attack against ML functions implemented using an FPGA; a Trojaning Attack against ML classifiers exploiting the excitability of Nuclear Engineers; a Backdooring Attack against ML Training environments to ensure persistence of an attack vector; a False Positive Evasion Attack against multi-factor Access Control Systems using clever inputs; an Inference Attack against ML models by an Insider with access to the Operational environment; and an Adversarial Reprogramming Attack against a Material Access Control Video Surveillance System. At the beginning of this year these six attack scenarios were provided to our research teams at Georgia Tech and Idaho State University and each team successfully implemented a subversion attack against a ML implementation to include transient misclassifications. While this is a notable outcome from this type of research, this paper offers the reader insight into not only how to structure and execute these types of attacks, but into the thought process behind how the researcher investigated the problem space, performed initial algorithm implementation, and the trial-and-error behind arriving at the successful subversion prototypes. We include in this paper a set of associated Scenarios on how these subversion prototypes could be implemented and an initial set of guidance for AR/SMR architects, Nuclear Regulators, and Cyber Defenders to implement awareness and defense capabilities into their current operational portfolios.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

1. Physical Security Engineering by Design for Nuclear Facilities; 2. Nuclear Power Plant Site Security Management – A Security Strategy; 3. The UAE Women in Nuclear Energy Security

1. Security by design, or SeBD, is a comprehensive approach that integrates the physical protection system of a nuclear plant into every stage of its existence. This includes planning, designing, constructing, commissioning, and operating the facility, using a combination of analytical, physical, technological, and procedural measures. Essentially, SeBD involves intentionally applying and incorporating security into all aspects of design and operation throughout the entire lifecycle of a facility. By implementing this methodology throughout various phases such as program development, process implementation, staff training and procedures management in conjunction with plant equipment, facilities can be optimized to minimize security risks without compromising functional design requirements. This ultimately improves the overall security posture of the site and reduces the need for costly modifications or additional security resources post-design. 2. A site security strategy is a living document that is revised on a periodic or event-driven basis, ensuring that site security operations and corresponding procedures provide long-term, effective protection for the entire nuclear power plant (NPP) site. A site security strategy aims to mitigate threats across the entire NPP site via in-depth defense approaches and mutual support; therefore, if a layer is omitted or altered, then the effect across all layers must be re-evaluated. Therefore, the aim of the site security strategy is to provide an appropriate, scalable security regime that deters, denies, delays, and detects incidents and, equally importantly, reassures legitimate users and the regulator that due diligence and regulatory compliance have been achieved, ensuring that the site is safe and secure. Robust access control for vehicles and pedestrians is at the heart of the strategy. Vehicle and pedestrian searching and screening are seen as the strongest mitigation methods against vehicle- and pedestrian-borne attacks. The security strategy must also be supported through comprehensive staff training and the development of robust processes, procedures, and planning. If all these measures are to be effective, then training must be implemented during each phase of construction, partial operation/commissioning, and full operation. No single element of site security is completely isolated from the influence of other elements. Ideally, consideration of all key elements will result in a security strategy that is integrated and proportional to the threat and that does not over specify individual security solutions through the application of isolated measures but rather applies a holistic, all-encompassing approach. 3. When women enter the labor force, numerous positive outcomes emerge, including increased GDP, educational gains, and decreased maternal mortality. Despite these benefits, women's employment rates and equality vary significantly worldwide as does support for women in the workforce. This paper will explore the multifaceted benefits of women's employment, the factors influencing labor force participation rates, and the urgency to achieve gender equality as outlined in the 2015 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It will then examine the emerging presence of women in the traditionally male-dominated nuclear field, specifically within the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a testament to their resilience and determination to break social norms and advance gender equality.

Zineddin, Dr. Z.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiparameter Constraints on Empirical Infrasound Period-Yield Relations for Bolides and Implications for Planetary Defense

How effective are methods for estimating bolide energies from infrasound signal period-yield relationships? A single global period–energy relation can obscure significant variability introduced by parameters such as the atmospheric Doppler wind profile and the bolide’s energy deposition profile as a function of altitude. Bolide speed, entry angle, burst altitude, and multiepisode fragmentation may all play a role in defining the detected period of the shockwave. By leveraging bolide light-curve data from the Center for Near Earth Object Studies, we re-examined the period–energy relation as a function of these parameters. Through a bootstrap approach, we show that various event subsets can deviate from widely cited period–energy models and we identify which specific conditions most strongly reshape the period–energy scaling. The results define both the fidelity and reliability of period–energy relations when no additional data beyond the infrasound record is available and improve the outcome when supporting data from bolide trajectories and light curves are included. Ultimately, these findings expand the scope of earlier models, providing a nuanced and robust framework for infrasound-only yield estimation under a range of bolide scenarios.

Planetary science↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-phenomenology Yield Characterization

This report serves as the first delivery of a four-year applied science effort to transform and advance the error bounds for the yield estimate of an explosion. Each year’s delivery will be in this form, culminating in the submission of this work for peer review to a scientific journal. Importantly, the yearly progress reports can then also be viewed as expanding drafts working towards a formal journal article submission. For the first tranche of funding, we collaborated with Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) scientists to identify unclassified real-world data that demonstrate and validate our advanced error propagation methods. Collaboration includes visits to AFTAC and telecons. For this development, we illustrate the fusion of seismic, acoustic, optical, and surface effect signatures from an explosion. The mathematics and code being adapted to this specific application (Williams et al., 2021) involves physics models of multiple sensor signatures. We have also identified related physics models and have integrated them into code. Current methods of underground explosion yield estimation for the Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT) have served the US treaty monitoring mission well for decades. A research objective of the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) office of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has always been to provide new technical capabilities for monitoring lower thresholds. The general model and error propagation code to be developed in this project is based on significant advances in error modeling and propagation needed to analyze data at lower detection thresholds. The second tranche of funding for this project began on May 1, 2022, and planned work for the second tranche includes: i) completing the integration of physical model code into the general error model framework; this code accommodates a wide range of linear/nonlinear source models, fixed/ random effects, and frequentist/Bayesian analyses (the purpose of which is not to dictate to users how to analyze data, but instead to allow users the maximum flexibility in their work); ii) illustrative application of code to identified data, and; iii) initial planning with AFTAC researchers on delivery of code to the Common Development Environment at AFTAC, and continued writing of the planned final journal article submission (year two of this progress report), with particular emphasis on descriptions of data identified for this effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗