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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A Medium-/Low-Voltage Joint State Estimator Through Linear Uncertainty Propagation

Traditionally, distribution system state estimations (DSSE) are challenged by the lack of measurements at both primary and secondary sides of the system. The widely available cable television (CATV) voltage sensors installed in low-voltage (LV) networks bring opportunities to achieve higher quality DSSE covering a broader area of the distribution network. This study proposes a medium-/low-voltage (MV/LV) joint distribution system state estimation approach using the untapped CATV measurements. It aims at addressing the need for system situational awareness at the grid edge while improving the estimation accuracy at both the primary and secondary sides compared to its disjointed counterpart. Linearized measurement functions and boundary condition uncertainty propagation rules are derived to ensure the computational efficiency and accuracy of the joint state estimator. Numerical experiments are conducted on an IEEE test feeder to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method and the value of CATV measurements.

joint state estimation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Solving Optimal Power Flow for Distribution Networks with State Estimation Feedback

Conventional optimal power flow (OPF) solvers assume full observability of the involved system states. However in practice, there is a lack of reliable system monitoring devices in the distribution networks. To close the gap between the theoretic algorithm design and practical implementation, this work proposes to solve the OPF problems based on the state estimation (SE) feedback for the distribution networks where only a part of the involved system states are physically measured. The SE feedback increases the observability of the under-measured system and provides more accurate system states monitoring when the measurements are noisy. We analytically investigate the convergence of the proposed algorithm. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach is more robust to large pseudo measurement variability and inherent sensor noise in comparison to the other frameworks without SE feedback.

distirbution systems↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient screening of rare large pit anomalies on polished surfaces using a minimalist sampling scheme

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has made significant strides in generating clean energy through its inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments. These experiments rely on high-density carbon (HDC) coated shells to encapsulate the fusion fuel. The success of these experiments is heavily dependent on the surface quality of these shells, as even minor imperfections, such as deep pits, can negatively impact fusion yield. Ensuring the required smoothness involves an extensive surface-finishing process that spans approximately 20 stages, making it both time-intensive and resource-demanding. A critical challenge in this process is the need for high-resolution scans to detect rare deep pits, which can be costly and impractical if performed on every shell. This highlights the necessity of developing more efficient scanning methods to optimize time and cost without compromising accuracy. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach that employs the multivariate Dvoretzky–Kiefer–Wolfowitz (DKW) inequality to provide a probabilistic upper bound on the error in estimating pit distribution characteristics via a Kernel Density Estimator (KDE). This error bound enables efficient and reliable estimation of pit distribution characteristics at a specified statistical confidence level using a minimal number of surface scans. The integrated DKW-KDE approach was validated through surface-finishing experiments across two batches of HDC-coated shells, demonstrating consistent and robust performance across multiple stages of the surface-finishing experiments. The validation studies suggest that the integrated DKW-KDE approach achieves comparable accuracy in estimating the risk of deleterious large pits with six scans, thus conserving time and resources. Further evaluations show that performance remains consistent across batches and over multiple polishing stages. In conclusion, based on these findings, one can leverage the minimal-scan insights to strategically improve the bottleneck inspection process, thus enhancing the productivity and quality of shell polishing and similar challenging manufacturing processes.

Inertial confinement fusion↗
DOE OSTI2025

A statistical and simulation-informed model for estimating permeability from pore size distribution in saturated geomaterials

Accurate permeability estimation is essential across subsurface engineering applications but remains challenging due to the complex pore structures of natural geomaterials. Traditional empirical methods and simplified theoretical models often inadequately capture the role of pore size distribution and connectivity. Here, this study develops a statistical and simulation-informed permeability model that collapses pore-scale complexity into a compact scaling of the form k = αϕμ d 2 , where ϕ is porosity, μ d is mean pore size, and α is a weakly varying coefficient. By combining pore network simulations with statistical analysis of unimodal and bimodal pore size distributions, we identify three key findings: (i) permeability is much more sensitive to mean pore size than to porosity; (ii) across extensive datasets, the ratio σ d /μ d (standard deviation to mean) clusters around a characteristic value ∼0.4, allowing the effects of the full pore size distribution to be represented by μ d and a narrowly varying α ≈ 0.05; and (iii) for bimodal systems, there exists a critical fraction of small pores ∼0.78 above which flow becomes small-pore dominated, enabling the definition of an effective flow-controlling pore population and facilitating simplified permeability estimation for such systems. The resulting model, which requires only porosity and a representative mean pore size as inputs, is validated against comprehensive experimental datasets (>1700 samples) spanning diverse soils and rocks and achieves good predictive accuracy. Overall, this work provides a physically grounded yet practically simple permeability estimator suitable for subsurface engineering, environmental protection, and resource management applications.

Permeability↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Effects of Turbulence on Heliosheath Ions and Implications for Energetic Neutral Atoms

The distribution of ions in the heliosheath—the region between the heliospheric termination shock and the heliopause—is important for understanding remote observations of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs). The ion distributions were estimated previously based on hybrid simulations of the heating and evolution of solar wind and interstellar pickup ions across the solar wind termination shock, but these estimates only provide the distributions near the shock. In this work, we use self-consistent hybrid kinetic simulations to investigate the effects of turbulence on ion distributions in the heliosheath. The simulations are compared against Voyager observations, constraining the feasible amplitude and compressibility of turbulence. We find that the heating due to turbulent dissipation can lead to a significant increase in the temperature of thermal solar wind ions. Both turbulent velocity fluctuations and the heating of solar wind ions increase the charge-exchange source for ENAs at low energies (around 100 eV), where current ENA models underpredict observations by more than an order of magnitude. However, the effects of turbulence are likely not strong enough to fully explain these discrepancies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Distributed Acoustic Sensing to Estimate the Permeability

Optical fiber in a borehole can be interrogated with distributed acoustic sensors (DAS) to capture fracture displacements with the potential to map surrounding fracture networks. We designed a laboratory experiment to test the capability of DAS to determine borehole flow characteristics, and we show that for the first time DAS can be used to remotely estimate permeability. Optical fiber was wrapped around a bead filled pipe and the pressure drop and flow velocity were measured to directly calculate permeability. A machine learning model using statistical features from continuous DAS estimated the bulk permeability. Fluid interactions with the permeable material demonstrate insufficient resolution using DAS amplitude-based measurements for estimating pressure drop to infer permeability. Variations in the spectral domain relate DAS measurements to the pressure drop and provide consistent permeability estimates. Resolution with DAS is sufficient to estimate permeability and provides a reliable method to monitor at depth in borehole conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Representation of U.S. Warm Temperature Extremes in Global Climate Model Ensembles

Extreme temperature events can have considerable negative impacts on sectors such as health, agriculture, and transportation. Observational evidence indicates the severity and frequency of warm extremes are increasing over much of the United States, but there are sizeable challenges both in estimating extreme temperature changes and in quantifying the relevant associated uncertainties. This study provides a simple statistical framework using a block maxima approach to analyze the representation of warm temperature extremes in several recent global climate model ensembles. Uncertainties due to structural model differences, grid resolution, and internal variability are characterized and discussed. Results show that models and ensembles differ greatly in the representation of extreme temperature over the United States, and variability in tail events is dependent on time and anthropogenic warming, which can influence estimates of return periods and distribution parameter estimates using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. These effects can considerably influence the uncertainty of model hindcasts and projections of extremes. Several idealized regional applications are highlighted for evaluating ensemble skill and trends, based on quantile analysis and root-mean-square errors in the overall sample and the upper tail. The results are relevant to regional climate assessments that use global model outputs and that are sensitive to extreme warm temperature. Accompanying this manuscript is a simple toolkit using the R statistical programming language for characterizing extreme events in gridded datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Distribution System Parameter and Topology Estimation Applied to Resolve Low-Voltage Circuits on Three Real Distribution Feeders

Accurate distribution secondary low-voltage circuit models are needed to enhance overall distribution system operations and planning, including effective monitoring and coordination of distributed energy resources located in the secondary circuits. We present a full-scale demonstration across three real feeders of a computationally efficient approach for estimating the secondary circuit topologies and parameters using historical voltage and power measurements provided by smart meters. The method is validated against several secondary configurations, and compares favorably to satellite imagery and the utility secondary model. Feeder-wide results show how much parameters can vary from simple assumptions. In conclusion, model sensitivities are tested, demonstrating only modest amounts of data and resolutions of data measurements are needed for accurate parameter and topology results.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Systems and methods for determining flux distribution

Provided are systems and methods for accurately determining flux distribution in organisms or cells without use of metabolic flux analysis data. The methods include estimating flux distributions in multiple reference strains (variants of a parental strain) using experimentally determined extracellular flux data from the reference strains, and determining a flux distribution for the parental strain from the estimated flux distributions for the reference strains and from experimentally measured extracellular fluxes for the parental strain. The systems are configured for carrying out the methods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Estimation of Errors in Stress Distributions Computed in Finite Element Simulations of Polycrystals

The accuracy of the stresses predicted from crystal plasticity-based finite element formulation depends on estimation and control of the errors associated with the discretization. In the current work, the errors in the stress distribution are estimated in virtual polycrystalline samples of α-phase titanium (hexagonal close-packed phase of Ti–6Al– 4 V). To estimate the error, the stress field, which does not possess inter-element continuity, is smoothed over a grain using an L 2 projection, thereby providing continuous stress distributions with inter-element continuity. The differences between the continuous (smooth) and discontinuous (raw) stress fields are calculated at individual Gauss quadrature points and used to estimate errors for corresponding elements and grains. Error estimations are performed for a Voronoi-tessellated microstructure, an equiaxed microstructure, and two microstructures with varying grain sizes for tensile loading extending into the fully plastic regime (≈ 5% extension). Magnitudes of the errors are found to depend on microstructural characteristics, particularly the shape and size of grains. Samples having variations in grain size or having less spherical grains exhibited higher errors than samples with uniformly sized, equiaxed grains, with the size variations having a more pronounced effect. In conclusion, errors correlate with proximity to grain boundaries at small (elastic) strains and with deformation-induced features (deformation bands) at large strains.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Based Network Parameter Estimation Using AMI Data

The expansion of distribution power system and the growing penetration of distributed energy resources present new challenges for situational awareness. Calibrating the extended system model with sensor measurements and maintaining the usability is critical for utilities. This paper presents a distribution network parameter estimation (DNPE) approach using machine learning (ML) and metering data that improve the quality of extended distribution power system modeling. The reliability model can improve the ability of endpoint data to be translated into network-level situational awareness in real time and help distribution system operators (DSOs) solve branch flow and voltage problems. In addition, a data analytic and automate processing scheme is proposed to improve the sensor data quality and prevent misleading information. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified with actual advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data on a real utility feeder model, while considering the higher penetration of photovoltaic power generation. The test of DNPE and study results are demonstrated in this paper.

Parameter estimation, machine learning, power dist↗
DOE OSTI2021

A multi-agent approach to distribution system fault section estimation in smart grid environment

We report that Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) are seen from different areas as one of the paramount trends for the next generation of power systems. Numerous published studies about MAS discuss its utilization in power distribution networks but none focuses on the prior step to restoration and self-healing that is fault section estimation. This paper aims to show how MAS can improve the utilities’ reliability indexes and consumer satisfaction by overcoming the multiple fault section estimation problem. In order to do this, the authors considered using MAS as a means of communication between smart meters. The purpose of smart meters usage is to employ devices that are already present in smart grids, mainly because of their reading and saving data capacity. The proposed method was tested on a radial feeder generated by the authors. The network was built on HYPERSIM, a software platform of OPAL-RT Technologies. The simulation results show that this MAS provides speed, efficiency, and automation for the process of fault section estimation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimal Power Flow With State Estimation in the Loop for Distribution Networks

Here in this article, we propose a framework for running optimal control-estimation synthesis in distribution networks. Our approach combines a primal-dual gradient-based optimal power flow solver with a state estimation feedback loop based on a limited set of sensors for system monitoring, instead of assuming exact knowledge of all states. The estimation algorithm reduces uncertainty on unmeasured grid states based on certain online state measurements and noisy "pseudomeasurements." We analyze the convergence of the proposed algorithm and quantify the statistical estimation errors based on a weighted least-squares estimator. The numerical results on a 4521-node network demonstrate that this approach can scale to extremely large networks and provide robustness to both large pseudomeasurement variability and inherent sensor measurement noise.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity and uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON benchmark

The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered for adoption by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This paper summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment.For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. Here, the resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. These sensitivities were then used to inform input selections for the UQ.The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100% of the benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because the confidence intervals associated with benchmark predictions were wide. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark and future BISON development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity and Uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON Benchmark

The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This report summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment. For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. The resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. The strongest sensitivities were identified and used to inform input selections for the UQ. The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100% of benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because of the wide confidence intervals associated with the benchmark predictions. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark development and future BISON development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Investigating Microtopographic and Soil Controls on a Mountainous Meadow Plant Community Using High-Resolution Remote Sensing and Surface Geophysical Data

Our study aims to explore the microtopographic controls that dictate the heterogeneity of plant communities in a mountainous floodplain-hillslope system, using remote sensing and surface geophysical techniques. Working within a lower montane floodplain-hillslope study site (750 m × 750 m) in the Upper Colorado River Basin, we developed a new data fusion framework, based on machine learning and feature engineering, that exploits remote sensing optical and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data to estimate the distribution of key plant meadow communities at submeter resolution. We collected surface electrical resistivity tomography data to explore the variability in soil properties along a floodplain-hillslope transect at 0.50-m resolution and extracted LiDAR-derived metrics to model the rapid change in microtopography. Furthermore, we investigated the covariability among the estimated plant community distributions, soil information, and topographic metrics. Results show that our framework estimated the distribution of nine plant communities with higher accuracy (87% versus 80% overall; 85% versus 60% for shrubs) compared to conventional classification approaches. Analysis of the covariabilities reveals a strong correlation between plant community distribution, soil electric conductivity, and slope, indicating that soil moisture is a primary control on heterogeneous spatial distribution. At the same time, microtopography plays an important role in creating particular ecosystem niches for some of the communities. Such relationships could be exploited to provide information about the spatial variability of soil properties. This highly transferable framework can be employed within long-term monitoring to capture community-specific physiological responses to perturbations, offering the possibility of bridging local plot-scale observations with large landscape monitoring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Joint Matrix Completion and Compressed Sensing for State Estimation in Low-observable Distribution System

Limited measurement availability at the distribution grid presents challenges for state estimation and situational awareness. This paper combines the advantages of two sparsity-based state estimation approaches (matrix completion and compressive sensing) that have been proposed recently to address the challenge of unobservability. The proposed approach exploits both the low rank structure and a suitable transform domain representation to leverage the correlation structure of the spatio-temporal data matrix while incorporating the powerflow constraints of the distribution grid. Simulations are carried out on three phase unbalanced IEEE 37 test system to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The performance results reveal - (1) the superiority over traditional matrix completion and (2) very low state estimation errors for high compression ratios representing very low observability.

Dahale, Shweta↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep Neural Networks are Adaptive to Function Regularity and Data Distribution in Approximation and Estimation

Deep learning has exhibited remarkable results across diverse areas. To understand its success, substantial research has been directed towards its theoretical foundations. Nev- ertheless, the majority of these studies examine how well deep neural networks can model functions with uniform regularities. In this paper, we explore a different angle: how deep neural networks can adapt to varying degrees of smoothness in functions and nonuni- form data distributions across different locations and scales. More precisely, we focus on a broad class of functions defined by nonlinear tree-based approximation methods. This class encompasses a range of function types, such as functions with uniform regularities and discontinuous functions. We develop nonparametric approximation and estimation theories for this class using deep ReLU networks. Our results show that deep neural networks are adaptive to the nonuniform smoothness of functions and nonuniform data distributions at different locations and scales. We apply our results to several function classes, and derive the corresponding approximation and generalization errors. The validity of our results is demonstrated through numerical experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗