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Results for “Distributed State Estimator”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
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DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity-Based Reactive Power Dispatch of DERs to Support Transmission Grid During Emergency

This paper proposes a TSO-DSO framework including DER set-point dispatch using sensitivity analysis. We address all three steps of TSO-DSO integration stating by estimating the capability curve of an unbalanced distribution system and then modeling of capability curve on the transmission side grid and estimating the reactive power needed from DSO during emergencies, and ending by dispatching the requested reactive power from TSO. The proposed interaction framework is tested on an IEEE 37-node distribution network connected to IEEE 9 bus transmission system. The simulation shows that using sensitivity-based dispatch would reduce the number of communication signals between DERs and DSO and that can decrease the risk of communication contingency.

Alkhonain, Ahmed↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nonparametric Inference for the Reproductive Rate in Generalized Compartmental Models

We develop a tractable nonparametric model for the time-varying reproductive rate of infectious diseases that combines the structure of a deterministic compartmental model and a stochastic model for incidence data. We use Bayesian inference to estimate, with uncertainty, the reproductive rate of the Coronavirus 2019 outbreak in the U.S. states of California, Florida, Michigan, New Mexico, New York, and Texas from January 2020 to March 2022. Employing the inferred reproductive rates, we estimate the posterior distribution of the time-varying reproduction numbers for each state. Compering the time-varying reproduction numbers across the states, we identify some epidemic waves, potentially driven from changes in human behavior and virus mutations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Detection of Stealthy False Data Injection Attacks in Unobservable Distribution Networks

In this paper, a composite scheme is proposed for detecting stealthy data manipulation attacks on distribution system which is unobservable with standard least squares based state estimators. This technique has three stages where the process of data imputation, voltage phasor estimation and the bad data detection are carried out in a systematic manner. The proposed approach is then integrated with moving target defense strategies which perturbs the network parameters to reveal stealthy false data injection attacks. The proposed approach is tested is validated on a three-phase, unbalanced 37-node distribution system and its results are presented. It is shown that the proposed approach has the ability to accurately detect the presence of FDI attacks using limited measurements (i.e., the test system is unobservable).

Rajasekaran, James K.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Space-based quantum networking in the presence of a nuclear disturbed environment

Space-based quantum networks provide a means for near-term long-distance transmission of quantum information. Here this article analyzed the performance of a downlink quantum network between a low-Earth-orbit satellite and an observatory operating in less-than-ideal atmospheric conditions. The effects from fog, haze, and a nuclear disturbed environment on the long-range distribution of quantum states were investigated. A density matrix that estimates the quantum state by capturing the effects from increased signal loss and elevated background noise to estimate the state fidelity of the transmitted quantum state was developed. It was found that the nuclear disturbed environment and other atmospheric effects have a degrading effect on the quantum state. These environments impede the ability to perform quantum communications for the duration of the effects. In the case of the nuclear disturbed environment, the nuclear effects subside quickly, and network performance should return to normal by the next satellite pass.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Evaluation of Advanced Tools for Distributed Wind Turbine Performance Estimation

We evaluate various classes of distributed wind turbine performance tools across two sites in the United States. The class of tools ranges from the simple mass conservation model to the coupled Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes model, all initiated by the WIND Toolkit data set. The resource estimation at the site is evaluated against measured data at the mast location. Taking a sample 100-kW wind turbine and constant losses, we evaluate Openwind, Continuum, and WindNinja tools and document annual energy production (AEP) and time-series statistics associated with the performance estimation of the wind turbine. Using a methodology that is consistent and unbiased across the three options currently available in the industry, we elaborate results at the two sample locations and discuss the probable sources of discrepancy in the AEP estimates. Two main sources of the discrepancy come from the input WIND Toolkit data and the spatial modeling techniques of the tools to capture atmospheric physics. The discussion includes additional values that these tools may bring into the energy assessment process to enhance the owners' confidence over the distributed wind power systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neural simulation-based inference of the neutron star equation of state directly from telescope spectra

Neutron stars provide a unique opportunity to study strongly interacting matter under extreme density conditions. The intricacies of matter inside neutron stars and their equation of state are not directly visible, but determine bulk properties, such as mass and radius, which affect the star's thermal X-ray emissions. However, the telescope spectra of these emissions are also affected by the stellar distance, hydrogen column, and effective surface temperature, which are not always well-constrained. Uncertainties on these nuisance parameters must be accounted for when making a robust estimation of the equation of state. In this study, we develop a novel methodology that, for the first time, can infer the full posterior distribution of both the equation of state and nuisance parameters directly from telescope observations. This method relies on the use of neural likelihood estimation, in which normalizing flows use samples of simulated telescope data to learn the likelihood of the neutron star spectra as a function of these parameters, coupled with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods to efficiently sample from the corresponding posterior distribution. Our approach surpasses the accuracy of previous methods, improves the interpretability of the results by providing access to the full posterior distribution, and naturally scales to a growing number of neutron star observations expected in the coming years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coordinated Inverter Control to Increase Dynamic PV Hosting Capacity: A Real-Time Optimal Power Flow Approach

High penetrations of distributed photovoltaics (PV) could cause adverse grid impacts, such as voltage violations. The recent development in inverter technologies provides the opportunity to develop control systems to realize effective PV governance and thus to improve dynamic PV hosting capacity for distribution grids. In this paper, a novel distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) solution is proposed by adopting the real-time optimal power flow (OPF) approach for coordinated control of the distributed PV inverters. The proposed approach eliminates the dependence on load knowledge via measurement feedback correction, and it can be implemented in real time. One challenge is that the technique is sensitive to the data availability and integrity of voltage measurements. Therefore, a decentralized DERMS approach is developed by leveraging the concepts of state estimation. The framework and the effectiveness of the solution approach are numerically demonstrated on a real distribution feeder in Southern California.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

SOSAT: Geohazard Risk Assessment in Carbon Sequestration Operations

Like all operations in which fluids are injected into the subsurface, geologic carbon storage (GCS) presents inherit risks that must be assessed and mitigated to successfully deploy such technology in the field. For example, alterations to pore pressure and the stress state due to fluid injection may trigger certain geohazards, such as potential fault activation and induced seismicity or unintentional hydraulic fracturing. Here we present capabilities for assessing these potential risks using the State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT): a Python library and web-based application capable of probabilistically estimating the subsurface state of stress informed by various field observations. Using posterior distributions of principal stress components, SOSAT can assess the risk of fault activation within the injection formation for either a critically oriented fault or a fault with a user-prescribed orientation. Additionally, SOSAT can estimate the probability of unintentional hydraulic fracturing of the intact reservoir rock. Here, we demonstrate these SOSAT capabilities using a hypothetical GCS site. This type of risk assessment can assist with the effective deployment of GCS technology in the field by informing safe design and management practices.

Haagenson, Ryan J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Aqueous Bromide Discharges from U.S. Coal-Fired Power Plants: Points of Origin, Concentration Ranges, and Effluent Treatment Costs

Bromide discharges from coal-fired power plants have received increased attention from regulatory bodies due to their contribution to the formation of disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in downstream drinking water treatment plants. Here, this paper characterizes the relative contributions of bromide from coal feedstocks and bromine-based mercury control processes, estimates the distribution of bromide concentrations at 85 active coal-fired power plants across the United States (U.S.) with wet flue gas desulfurization units, and estimates the cost of bromide removal from wastewater discharge using year 2020 data. Bromide discharges are estimated at the plant level using a combination of the reported coal rank and composition combusted, estimates of bromide addition in mercury control techniques under multiple halogen addition scenarios, and the estimated flue gas desulfurization (FGD) wastewater flow rate. The median, simulated plant-level estimation of total FGD wastewater flow is 18.3 gallons/min at a bromide concentration of 319 mg/L, equivalent to ~11.6 tonnes/year of bromide discharges to the environment. Next, we evaluated the expected cost of employing the best available technology (BAT) to control bromide discharges in FGD wastewater to prevent contributions to DBP formation. Treatment would need to remove more than 99.8% of bromide to reach the 0.2 mg/L voluntary incentive program (VIP) limit. The total cost of treatment depends on whether disposal is on- or off-site; the average costs for all plants combined come to an average of $110 million ($95.2/kgal) in 2021 U.S. dollars for on-site disposal, or $134 million ($115/kgal) for off-site disposal.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

H ∞ Control for Energy Dispatch in Autonomous Nanogrid With Communication Delays

This paper proposes an optimal controller and estimator for energy dispatch to balance the power supply and demand considering communication delays. The proposed algorithm involves modeling an autonomous nanogrid (ANG) consisting of distributed energy resources, energy storage systems, loads, an $H$ ∞ controller with a reference power modulation technique, and a state estimator. The ANG was developed to express the dynamic supply-demand energy balance of a nanogird system. Reference power modulation was designed to generate the desired ESS power based on the imbalanced energy. Random communication delays were modeled using a stochastic variable satisfying the Bernoulli random binary distribution. The optimal $H$ ∞ controller and estimator were developed using a linear matrix inequality approach to exponentially stabilize the closed-loop system. Simulations were performed using real daily demand forecasts obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed real-time optimization algorithm.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving qubit readout with hidden Markov models

We demonstrate the application of pattern recognition algorithms via hidden Markov models (HMM) for qubit readout. This scheme provides a state-path trajectory approach capable of detecting qubit-state transitions and makes for a robust classification scheme with higher starting-state assignment fidelity than when compared to a multivariate Gaussian or a support vector machine scheme. Therefore, the method also eliminates the qubit-dependent readout time optimization requirement in current schemes. Using a HMM state discriminator we estimate fidelities reaching the ideal limit. Unsupervised learning gives access to transition matrix, priors, and IQ distributions, providing a toolbox for studying qubit-state dynamics during strong projective readout.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Globally optimal interferometry with lossy twin Fock probes

Parity or quadratic spin (e.g., J z 2 ) readouts of a Mach–Zehnder (MZ) interferometer probed with a twin Fock (TF) input state allow saturating the optimal sensitivity attainable among all mode-separable states with a fixed total number of particles but only when the interferometer phase θ is near zero. When more general Dicke state probes are used, the parity readout saturates the quantum Fisher information (QFI) at θ = 0, whereas better-than-standard quantum limit performance of the J z 2 readout is restricted to an o ( N ) occupation imbalance. We show that a method of moments readout of two quadratic spin observables J z 2 and J + 2 + J − 2 is globally optimal for Dicke state probes; i.e., the error saturates the QFI for all θ . In the lossy setting, we derive the time-inhomogeneous Markov process describing the effect of particle loss on TF states, showing that the method of moments readout of four at-most-quadratic spin observables is sufficient for globally optimal estimation of θ when two or more particles are lost. The analysis culminates in a numerical calculation of the QFI matrix for distributed MZ interferometry on the four-mode state | N 4 , N 4 , N 4 , N 4 〉 and its lossy counterparts, showing that an advantage for the estimation of any linear function of the local MZ phases θ 1 and θ 2 (compared to independent probing of the MZ phases by two copies of | N 4 , N 4 〉 ) appears when more than one particle is lost.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Resource distribution under spatiotemporal uncertainty of disease spread: Stochastic versus robust approaches

We consider the problem of optimizing locations of distribution centers (DCs) and plans for distributing resources such as test kits and vaccines, under spatiotemporal uncertainties of disease spread and demand for the resources. We aim to balance the operational cost (including costs of deploying facilities, shipping, and storage) and quality of service (reflected by demand coverage), while ensuring equity and fairness of resource distribution across multiple populations. We compare a sample-based stochastic programming (SP) approach with a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) approach using a moment-based ambiguity set. Numerical studies are conducted on instances of distributing COVID-19 vaccines in the United States and test kits, to compare SP and DRO models with a deterministic formulation using estimated demand and with the current resource distribution plans implemented in the US. We demonstrate the results over distinct phases of the pandemic to estimate the cost and speed of resource distribution depending on scale and coverage, and show the “demand-driven” properties of the SP and DRO solutions. Furthermore, our results further indicate that if the worst-case unmet demand is prioritized, then the DRO approach is preferred despite of its higher overall cost. Nevertheless, the SP approach can provide an intermediate plan under budgetary restrictions without significant compromises in demand coverage.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A practical and efficient approach for Bayesian quantum state estimation

Bayesian inference is a powerful paradigm for quantum state tomography, treating uncertainty in meaningful and informative ways. Yet the numerical challenges associated with sampling from complex probability distributions hampers Bayesian tomography in practical settings. In this article, we introduce an improved, self-contained approach for Bayesian quantum state estimation. Leveraging advances in machine learning and statistics, our formulation relies on highly efficient preconditioned Crank–Nicolson sampling and a pseudo-likelihood. We theoretically analyze the computational cost, and provide explicit examples of inference for both actual and simulated datasets, illustrating improved performance with respect to existing approaches.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Age of Evapotranspiration: Lower‐Bound Constraints From Distributed Water Fluxes Across the Continental United States

Abstract Unlike streamflow, which can be sampled in aggregate at the catchment outlet, evapotranspiration (ET) is spatially dispersed, challenging large‐scale age estimation. Here, we introduce an approach for constraining the age of ET via mass balance and present the minimum flux‐weighted age of ET across the continental United States using distributed, publicly available water flux data sets. The lower‐bound constraint on ET age can be calculated by assuming that ET is preferentially sourced from the most recent precipitation through a last‐in, first‐out algorithm. From 2012 to 2017, ET was at least several months old across large areas of the western continental United States, including in Mediterranean and (semi‐)arid climate zones and shrub and evergreen needleleaf plant communities. The primary limitation of this approach is that it provides only a minimum flux‐weighted average age to satisfy the mass balance of outgoing fluxes; true ET fluxes are composed of distributions of ages and may be composed of much older water. The primary advantage of the approach is that flux time series of precipitation and ET are sufficient to constrain ET age, and model parameterization is unnecessary. ET ages can be used to validate tracer‐aided and modeling approaches and inform studies of biogeochemistry, water‐rock interactions, and plant water sourcing under drought.

Hahm, W. J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unorthodox parallelization for Bayesian quantum state estimation

Quantum state tomography (QST) allows for the reconstruction of quantum states through measurements and some inference technique under the assumption of repeated state preparations. Bayesian inference provides a promising platform to achieve both efficient QST and accurate uncertainty quantification, yet is generally plagued by the computational limitations associated with long Markov chains. In this work, we present a novel Bayesian QST approach that leverages modern distributed parallel computer architectures to efficiently sample a D-dimensional Hilbert space. Using a parallelized preconditioned Crank–Nicholson Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, we demonstrate our approach on simulated data and experimental results from IBM Quantum systems up to four qubits, showing significant speedups through parallelization. Although highly unorthodox in pooling independent Markov chains, our method proves remarkably practical, with validation ex post facto via diagnostics like the intrachain autocorrelation time. We conclude by discussing scalability to higher-dimensional systems, offering a path toward efficient and accurate Bayesian characterization of large quantum systems.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2020

Light element ($$Z=1,2$$) production from spontaneous ternary fission of $$^{252}$$Cf

Abstract The yields of light elements ( $$Z=1,2$$ Z = 1 , 2 ) obtained from spontaneous ternary fission of $$^{252}$$ 252 Cf are treated within a nonequilibrium approach, and the contribution of unstable nuclei and excited bound states is taken into account. These light cluster yields may be used to probe dense matter, and to infer in-medium corrections such as Pauli blocking which is determined by the nucleon density. Continuum correlations are calculated from scattering phase shifts using the Beth-Uhlenbeck formula, and the effect of medium modification is estimated. The relevant distribution is reconstructed from the measured yields of isotopes. This describes the state of the nucleon system at scission and cluster formation, using only three Lagrange parameters which are the nonequilibrium counterparts of the temperature and chemical potentials, as defined in thermodynamic equilibrium. We concluded that a simple nuclear statistical equilibrium model neglecting continuum correlations and medium effects is not able to describe the measured distribution of H and He isotopes. Moreover, the freeze-out concept may serve as an important ingredient to the nonequilibrium approach using the relevant statistical operator concept.

Röpke, G.↗