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Results for “Dynamic causal modelling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Ural Blocking as a Driver of Early-Winter Stratospheric Warmings

This study explores the early-winter atmospheric response to Ural blocking anomalies in November, using a nudging technique to constrain the temperature and dynamics in a high-top atmospheric model. Persistent Ural blocking anomalies in November are associated with a warm Arctic/cold Siberia pattern and increased upward planetary waves entering the stratosphere, leading to a warming of the polar vortex. This stratospheric response then propagates in the troposphere, leading to increased occurrence of the negative North Atlantic Oscillation in December and January. In contrast, simulations with perturbed Barents-Kara sea ice and Siberian snow in November do not reproduce a significant atmospheric response. In simulations including a slab ocean, the Ural blocking induces Barents-Kara sea ice and Siberia snow anomalies that resemble composite analyses from observations. These results highlight Ural blocking variability in November as a robust driver of early-winter stratospheric warming while questioning causality between sea ice/snow and Ural blocking anomalies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Connecting suborganismal data to bioenergetic processes: killifish embryos exposed to a dioxin-like compound

A core challenge for ecological risk assessment is to integrate molecular responses into a chain of causality to organismal or population level outcomes. Bioenergetic theory may be a useful approach for integrating suborganismal responses to predict organismal level responses that influence population dynamics. In this work, we describe a novel application of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB), theory in the context of a toxicity framework (Adverse Outcome Pathways, AOP) to make quantitative predictions of chemical exposures to individuals, starting from suborganismal data. We use early life stage exposure of Fundulus heteroclitus to dioxin-like chemicals (DLCs) and connect AOP Key Events (KEs) to DEB processes through “damage” that is produced at a rate proportional to the internal toxicant concentration. We use transcriptomic data of fish embryos exposed to DLCs to translate molecular indicators of damage into changes in DEB parameters (damage increases somatic maintenance costs) and use DEB models to predict sublethal and lethal effects of young fish. By changing a small subset of model parameters, we predict the evolved tolerance to DLCs in some wild F. heteroclitus populations, a data set not used in model parameterization. The differences in model parameters points to reduced sensitivity and altered damage repair dynamics as contributing to this evolved resistance. Our methodology has potential extrapolation to untested chemicals of ecological concern.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel random forest approach to revealing interactions and controls on chlorophyll concentration and bacterial communities during coastal phytoplankton blooms

Abstract Increasing occurrence of harmful algal blooms across the land–water interface poses significant risks to coastal ecosystem structure and human health. Defining significant drivers and their interactive impacts on blooms allows for more effective analysis and identification of specific conditions supporting phytoplankton growth. A novel iterative Random Forests (iRF) machine-learning model was developed and applied to two example cases along the California coast to identify key stable interactions: (1) phytoplankton abundance in response to various drivers due to coastal conditions and land-sea nutrient fluxes, (2) microbial community structure during algal blooms. In Example 1, watershed derived nutrients were identified as the least significant interacting variable associated with Monterey Bay phytoplankton abundance. In Example 2, through iRF analysis of field-based 16S OTU bacterial community and algae datasets, we independently found stable interactions of prokaryote abundance patterns associated with phytoplankton abundance that have been previously identified in laboratory-based studies. Our study represents the first iRF application to marine algal blooms that helps to identify ocean, microbial, and terrestrial conditions that are considered dominant causal factors on bloom dynamics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Parameters Impacting Columnated Granular Soil Pneumatic Seal Performance

The ability of a column of loose granular soil to form a pneumatic seal was investigated by varying the diameter of the soil column, the effective column height, and the level of compaction in the soil. The soil column diameter was tested at three levels using pipes with inner diameters measuring 5.08, 10.16, and 15.24 centimeters (2, 4, and 6 inches). Soil was filled in each pipe to form 15, 30, and 45 centimeter (6, 12, and 18 inch) tall soil columns. Each diameter/height configuration was also tested at three levels of soil compaction, compared by calculating the bulk density of the soil with mass and volume measurements. GRC-1a simulant was used, with approximate low/medium/high bulk densities of 1.6, 1.75, and 1.9 g/cc achieved with a combination of vibration and tamping. The order of tests for a given column diameter was randomized and repeated three times. With the top of the soil open to atmosphere at room temperature, compressed air was injected through a small diffuser at the column base with several small downward-facing holes. The number and size of these holes was scaled such that a constant total inlet orifice area to column cross sectional area ratio was maintained for each column diameter. Inlet air pressure was slowly increased via a precision regulator to preserve quasi-static equilibrium in the soil column to minimize the impact of dynamics. Air pressure was increased all the way through the static and bubbling regimes until slugging or turbulent behavior was observed in the soil to ensure that the entire static regime had been captured during data collection. A three-factor, three-level analysis of variance (ANOVA) statistical analysis was performed on the resulting data to determine the extent to which each physical parameter impacted the soil column seal performance. It was concluded that there is statistically significant evidence that column height, and the interaction between column height and diameter impact soil seal performance. In all other cases there was insufficient data to identify a statistically significant causal relationship. Additionally, plots were generated comparing experimental data to the predictive formula developed by Ogino et al. for fluidized beds in 1993. Because this model was developed for industrial spouted fluidized beds, the accuracy of its output prior to fluidization in the static seal ‘edge case’ is unknown, especially considering in this application the working gas was diffused across the column base rather than being injected through a spout. Further, the fidelity of the model had not yet been tested with lunar soil simulants. Plotting the Ogino et al. model alongside test data allows for a more intuitive sense of the impact of test parameters on soil seal performance, as well as providing a quick means to further tune this predictive model for more accurate use with static seals across granular lunar soil simulants. The model provided by Ogino et al. was further tuned using test data to determine the degree to which a spouted bed model could be applied to a slightly modified set of testing conditions: lunar soil simulants and a more diffuse, homogeneous application of pneumatic pressure. A Matlab script was created to test different values for the leading coefficient and exponents in Ogino’s formula. The script swept preset ranges, then iterated with higher resolutions across narrower ranges to converge on the optimal value for each parameter. The resulting adjusted model was compared to the original, as well as test data with noticeable improvements across the entire test domain.

Jack Stewart↗
DOE OSTI2020

Collagen Turnover in Relation to Risk Factors and Hemodynamics in Human Intracranial Aneurysms

Determinants for molecular and structural instability, that is, impending growth or rupture, of intracranial aneurysms (IAs) remain uncertain. To elucidate this, we endeavored to estimate the actual turnover rates of the main molecular constituent in human IA (collagen) on the basis of radiocarbon ( 14 C) birth dating in relation to IA hemodynamics. Collagen turnover rates in excised human IA samples were calculated using mathematical modeling of 14 C birth dating data of collagen in relation to risk factors and histological markers for collagen maturity/turnover in selected IA. Hemodynamics were simulated using image-based computational fluid dynamics. Correlation, logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed. Collagen turnover rates were estimated in 46 IA (43 patients); computational fluid dynamics could be performed in 20 IA (20 patients). The mean collagen turnover rate (γ) constituted 126% (±1% error) per year. For patients with arterial hypertension, γ was greater than 2600% annually, whereas γ was distinctly lower with 32% (±1% error) per year for patients without risk factors, such as smoking and hypertension. There was a distinct association between histological presence of rather immature collagen in human IA and the presence of modifiable risk factors. Spatial-temporal averaged wall shear stress predicted rapid collagen turnover (odds ratio, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.0–2.7]). Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated a good test accuracy (area under the curve, 0.798 [95% CI, 0.598–0.998]) for average wall shear stress with a threshold ≥4.9 Pa for rapid collagen turnover. Our data indicate that turnover rates and stability of collagen in human IA are strongly associated with the presence of modifiable risk factors and aneurysmal hemodynamics. Finally, these findings underline the importance of strict risk factor modification in patients with unruptured IA. Future should include more detailed risk factor data to establish a more causal understanding of hemodynamics and the rupture risk of individual IA.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Quantum field as a quantum cellular automaton: The Dirac free evolution in one dimension

We present a quantum cellular automaton model in one space-dimension which has the Dirac equation as emergent. This model, a discrete-time and causal unitary evolution of a lattice of quantum systems, is derived from the assumptions of homogeneity, parity and time-reversal invariance. The comparison between the automaton and the Dirac evolutions is rigorously set as a discrimination problem between unitary channels. We derive an exact lower bound for the probability of error in the discrimination as an explicit function of the mass, the number and the momentum of the particles, and the duration of the evolution. Computing this bound with experimentally achievable values, we see that in that regime the QCA model cannot be discriminated from the usual Dirac evolution. Finally, we show that the evolution of one-particle states with narrow-band in momentum can be efficiently simulated by a dispersive differential equation for any regime. This analysis allows for a comparison with the dynamics of wave-packets as it is described by the usual Dirac equation. This paper is a first step in exploring the idea that quantum field theory could be grounded on a more fundamental quantum cellular automaton model and that physical dynamics could emerge from quantum information processing. In this framework, the discretization is a central ingredient and not only a tool for performing non-perturbative calculation as in lattice gauge theory. The automaton model, endowed with a precise notion of local observables and a full probabilistic interpretation, could lead to a coherent unification of a hypothetical discrete Planck scale with the usual Fermi scale of high-energy physics. - Highlights: • The free Dirac field in one space dimension as a quantum cellular automaton. • Large scale limit of the automaton and the emergence of the Dirac equation. • Dispersive differential equation for the evolution of smooth states on the automaton. • Optimal discrimination between the automaton evolution and the Dirac equation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2005

Internal Dynamics and Crustal Evolution of Mars

The objective of this work is to improve understanding of the internal structure, crustal evolution, and thermal history of Mars by combining geophysical data analysis of topography, gravity and magnetics with results from analytical and computational modeling. Accomplishments thus far in this investigation include: (1) development of a new crustal thickness model that incorporates constraints from Mars meteorites, corrections for polar cap masses and other surface loads, Pratt isostasy, and core flattening; (2) determination of a refined estimate of crustal thickness of Mars from geoid/topography ratios (GTRs); (3) derivation of a preliminary estimate of the k(sub 2) gravitational Love number and a preliminary estimate of possible dissipation within Mars consistent with this value; and (4) an integrative analysis of the sequence of evolution of early Mars. During the remainder of this investigation we will: (1) extend models of degree-1 mantle convection from 2-D to 3-D; (2) investigate potential causal relationships and effects of major impacts on mantle plume formation, with primary application to Mars; (3) develop exploratory models to assess the convective stability of various Martian core states as relevant to the history of dynamo action; and (4) develop models of long-wavelength relaxation of crustal thickness anomalies to potentially explain the degree-1 structure of the Martian crust.

Zuber, Maria↗
DOE OSTI2025

AI-Assisted Conceptual Development of a Pre-Geometric Cosmological Model - An Exercise in AI-Assisted Conceptual Framework Generation, Paper I: Foundations and Replication Dynamics

We develop a pre-geometric cosmological framework in which existence is identified with a finite amount of unstructured energy possessing vibration as its only intrinsic property. This vibrational substrate occupies an open, bounded spectral interval $(\omega_{\min},\omega_{\max})$, ensuring finiteness of total energy and excluding infinitely stable configurations. The substrate evolves under two fundamental and competing tendencies---excitation, which amplifies coherence, and randomization, which scrambles it. Their balance produces a metastable unstructured regime in which rare fluctuations may form long-lived self-consistent spectral configurations. Because the substrate is finite and subject to competing order--disorder dynamics, no coherent configuration can be perpetually stable. We show that the only mechanism capable of sustaining long-lived organization is a replication instability: a coherent unit may reproduce into multiple offspring according to a general $1\!\to n$ rule. Replication consumes energy from the finite substrate, breaks the metastable symmetry, and induces a discrete notion of event time through the replication tick $\Delta\tau$. Temporal succession is defined through correlation ordering of spectral microstates, producing an intrinsic pre-causal structure. The compactness of the spectral domain imposes minimal and maximal timescales, bounds the internal coherence of emergent units, and limits their proliferation. These spectral constraints serve as precursors for the emergence of geometry, adjacency, and a limiting propagation speed, developed in subsequent papers of this series. Paper I provides the foundational axioms (PG1--PG9) governing the spectral substrate, its metastable dynamics, the formation of coherent units, and the necessity of replication, establishing a fully pre-geometric stage from which causal and geometric structure naturally emerge.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Concussion, microvascular injury, and early tauopathy in young athletes after impact head injury and an impact concussion mouse model

The mechanisms underpinning concussion, traumatic brain injury, and chronic traumatic encephalopathy, and the relationships between these disorders, are poorly understood. We examined post-mortem brains from teenage athletes in the acute-subacute period after mild closed-head impact injury and found astrocytosis, myelinated axonopathy, microvascular injury, perivascular neuroinflammation, and phosphorylated tau protein pathology. To investigate causal mechanisms, we developed a mouse model of lateral closed-head impact injury that uses momentum transfer to induce traumatic head acceleration. Unanaesthetized mice subjected to unilateral impact exhibited abrupt onset, transient course, and rapid resolution of a concussion-like syndrome characterized by altered arousal, contralateral hemiparesis, truncal ataxia, locomotor and balance impairments, and neurobehavioural deficits. Experimental impact injury was associated with axonopathy, blood–brain barrier disruption, astrocytosis, microgliosis (with activation of triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells, TREM2), monocyte infiltration, and phosphorylated tauopathy in cerebral cortex ipsilateral and subjacent to impact. Phosphorylated tauopathy was detected in ipsilateral axons by 24 h, bilateral axons and soma by 2 weeks, and distant cortex bilaterally at 5.5 months post-injury. Impact pathologies co-localized with serum albumin extravasation in the brain that was diagnostically detectable in living mice by dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI. These pathologies were also accompanied by early, persistent, and bilateral impairment in axonal conduction velocity in the hippocampus and defective long-term potentiation of synaptic neurotransmission in the medial prefrontal cortex, brain regions distant from acute brain injury. Surprisingly, acute neurobehavioural deficits at the time of injury did not correlate with blood–brain barrier disruption, microgliosis, neuroinflammation, phosphorylated tauopathy, or electrophysiological dysfunction. Furthermore, concussion-like deficits were observed after impact injury, but not after blast exposure under experimental conditions matched for head kinematics. Computational modelling showed that impact injury generated focal point loading on the head and seven-fold greater peak shear stress in the brain compared to blast exposure. Moreover, intracerebral shear stress peaked before onset of gross head motion. By comparison, blast induced distributed force loading on the head and diffuse, lower magnitude shear stress in the brain. We conclude that force loading mechanics at the time of injury shape acute neurobehavioural responses, structural brain damage, and neuropathological sequelae triggered by neurotrauma. These results indicate that closed-head impact injuries, independent of concussive signs, can induce traumatic brain injury as well as early pathologies and functional sequelae associated with chronic traumatic encephalopathy. These results also shed light on the origins of concussion and relationship to traumatic brain injury and its aftermath.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

An innovations approach to decoupling of multibody dynamics and control

The problem of hinged multibody dynamics is solved using an extension of the innovations approach of linear filtering and prediction theory to the problem of mechanical system modeling and control. This approach has been used quite effectively to diagonalize the equations for filtering and prediction for linear state space systems. It has similar advantages in the study of dynamics and control of multibody systems. The innovations approach advanced here consists of expressing the equations of motion in terms of two closely related processes: (1) the innovations process e, a sequence of moments, obtained from the applied moments T by means of a spatially recursive Kalman filter that goes from the tip of the manipulator to its base; (2) a residual process, a sequence of velocities, obtained from the joint-angle velocities by means of an outward smoothing operations. The innovations e and the applied moments T are related by means of the relationships e = (I - L)T and T = (I + K)e. The operation (I - L) is a causal lower triangular matrix which is generated by a spatially recursive Kalman filter and the corresponding discrete-step Riccati equation. Hence, the innovations and the applied moments can be obtained from each other by means of a causal operation which is itself casually invertible.

Rodriguez, G.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Primordial non-Gaussianity from the effects of the Standard Model Higgs during reheating after inflation

We propose a new way of studying the Higgs potential at extremely high energies. The Standard Model (SM) Higgs boson, as a light spectator field during inflation in the early Universe, can acquire large field values from its quantum fluctuations which vary among different causal (Hubble) patches. Such a space dependence of the Higgs after the end of inflation leads to space-dependent SM particle masses and hence variable efficiency of reheating, when the inflaton decays to Higgsed SM particles. Inhomogeneous reheating results in (observable) temperature anisotropies. Further, the resulting temperature anisotropy spectrum acquires a significant non-Gaussian component, which is constrained by Planck observations of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and potentially detectable in next-generation experiments. Constraints on this non-Gaussian signal largely exclude the possibility of the observed temperature anisotropies arising primarily from Higgs effects. Hence, in principle, observational searches for non-Gaussianity in the CMB can be used to constrain the dynamics of the Higgs boson at very high (inflationary) energies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Study of High-Resolution LysB29(Nε-myristoyl) des(B30) Insulin Structures Display Novel Dynamic Causal Interrelations in Monomeric-Dimeric Motions

The treatment of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus is characterized by artificial supplementation of pancreatic β-cell ability to regulate sugar levels in the blood. Even though various insulin analogs are crucial for reasonable glycemic control, understanding the dynamic mechanism of the insulin analogs may help to improve the best-protracted insulin analog to assist people with type 1 diabetes (T1D) to live comfortably while maintaining tight glycemic control. Here, we present the high-resolution crystal structure of NN304, known as insulin detemir, to 1.7 Å resolution at cryogenic temperature. We computationally further investigated our crystal structure’s monomeric-dimeric conformation and dynamic profile by comparing it with a previously available detemir structure (PDB ID: 1XDA). Our structure (PDB ID: 8HGZ), obtained at elevated pH, provides electrostatically triggered minor movements in the equilibrium between alternate conformational substates compared to the previous structure, suggesting it might induce an intermediate state in the dissociation pathway of the insulin detemir’s hexamer:dihexamer equilibrium. Supplemented with orientational cross-correlation analysis by a Gaussian network model (GNM), this alternate oligomeric conformation offers the distinct cooperative motions originated by loose coupling of distant conformational substates of a protracted insulin analog that has not been previously observed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamics of Water, Climate, and Infrastructure

Climate and its impacts on the natural environment, and on the ability of the natural environment to support population and the built environment, stands as a threat multiplier that impacts national and global security. The Water Intersections with Climate Systems Security (WICSS) Strategic Initiative is designed to improve understanding of water’s role in, among other topics, the connection of critical infrastructure to climate in light of competing national and global security interests (including transboundary issues and stability), and identifying research gaps aligned with Sandia, and Federal agency priorities. With this impetus in mind, the WICSS Strategic Initiative team conceptualized a causal loop diagram (CLD) of the relationship between and among climate, the natural environment, population, and the built environment, with an understanding that any such regionally focused system must have externalities that influence the system from beyond its’ control, and metrics for better understanding the consequences of the set of interactions. These are discussed in light of a series of worldviews that focus on portions of the overall systems relationship. The relationships are described and documented in detail. A set of reinforcing and balancing loops are then highlighted within the context of the model. Finally, forward-looking actions are highlighted to describe how this conceptual model can be turned into modeling to address multiple problems described under the purview of the Strategic Initiative.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Causal control design for wave energy converters with finite stroke

Control design is of central importance in the optimization of power generation from ocean wave energy converters (WECs). The problem is made challenging by the fact that the resource is vibratory and stochastic, with a low quality factor. It has recently been shown that when constrained to causality, the optimal feedback controller for a WEC is solvable in closed-form as a sign-indefinite LQG problem, for the case in which the WEC exhibits linear dynamics and quadratic power transmission dissipation. However, most WECs exhibit stroke limits, which must be explicitly accounted for in control design to avoid end-stop collisions. This is important because such collisions lead to damage, and also because the introduction of unmodeled stroke limits can actually destabilize the otherwise-optimal closed loop. We illustrate a control design technique to address this issue, which consists of two design steps. In the first step, LMI techniques are used to optimize the mean power harvested from waves with a known power spectral density, subject to several competing objectives. In the second step, the controller is augmented via a nonlinear passivity-based outer-loop design which guarantees to prevent stroke saturation while also guaranteeing to preserve closed-loop stability. Furthermore, the technique is illustrated using a model of a simple heaving point absorber, and verified in simulation.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2019

Using Information Theory to Evaluate Directional Precipitation Interactions Over the West Sahel Region in Observations and Models

Water availability has historically been one of the most significant threats to African regional social and economic well-being. Over the Sahel region, a megadrought during the 1960s and 1970s induced by an abrupt and substantial rainfall reduction caused widespread famine and death. The postdrought recovery, which is still ongoing, has been characterized by gradual increases in rainfall, but with dramatic fluctuations. The large negative human impacts, slow recovery, and variability raise important questions of why and how rainfall dynamics evolve and interact with other components of the regional climate system. Here we provide an observational assessment of rainfall interactions mechanisms (informed by directional transfer of information entropy) that regulate Sahel rainfall. We quantitatively demonstrate that (1) sea surface temperature over the Gulf of Guinea controls moisture advection and transport to the West Sahel region and (2) strong bidirectional interactions exist between local vegetation dynamics and rainfall patterns. Then we assess the directional interaction patterns from nine state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs). We find that most ESMs are able to represent either the unidirectional control of sea surface temperature on precipitation or the bidirectional interaction between vegetation and precipitation. However, none of the ESMs represents both interactive patterns. The GFDL and IPSL-CM5A-LR models successfully reproduced observed patterns over ~50% of the West Sahel region but were not accurate in reproducing observed precipitation regional trends or interannual variation. We propose that the directional information transfer is a powerful mechanistic benchmark to assess model fidelity at the process level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Dynamics Explorer 2 observations of equatorial thermospheric winds and temperatures: Local time and longitudinal dependences

We have analyzed a large database of Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) measurements of equatorial (less than + or - 9 degs latitude) thermospheric neutral temperatures and horizontal wind components in the altitude range from 200 to 400 km for quiet and active geomagnetic conditions (Kp less than 3 and Kp greater than 3, respectively). Local time variations and longitudinal dependences on the duskside, dayside, and nightside have been separately examined. The dayside hourly averaged neutral zonal winds are relatively insensitive to variations in geomagnetic activity and appear to show an inverse dependence (lower zonal wind speed for higher Kp) in the midnight-dawn local time sector. The duskside neutral temperatures show a region of enhancement (by approximately 60 K) over the South Atlantic magnetic anomaly. The quiet time zonal winds are weaker than the corresponding active time zonal winds on the dayside near the South Atlantic magnetic anomaly. Enhanced ionization in the region, which increases the ion drag on the neutral gas, is suggested as the causal mechanism for these effects. The DE 2 averaged measurements have also been compared with MSIS-86/HWM90 and VSH models. The data and models are in good general agreement, though, the MSIS-86/HWM90 model predicts stronger dayside zonal winds than are observed under active conditions and the VSH model appears to underestimate the magnitude of the dayside zonal winds for both high and low Kp cases.

Wu, Q↗
DOE OSTI2015

Phenomenological QCD equation of state for massive neutron stars

Here, we construct an equation of state for massive neutron stars based on quantum chromodynamics phenomenology. Our primary purpose is to delineate the relevant ingredients of equations of state that simultaneously have the required stiffness and satisfy constraints from thermodynamics and causality. These ingredients are (i) a repulsive density-density interaction, universal for all flavors, (ii) the color-magnetic interaction active from low to high densities, (iii) confining effects, which become increasingly important as the baryon density decreases, and (iv) nonperturbative gluons, which are not very sensitive to changes of the quark density. We use the following “3-window” description: At baryon densities below about twice normal nuclear density, 2n 0 , we use the Akmal-Pandharipande-Ravenhall (APR) equation of state, and at high densities, ≥(4–7)n 0 , we use the three-flavor Nambu-Jona-Lasinio (NJL) model supplemented by vector and diquark interactions. In the transition density region, we smoothly interpolate the hadronic and quark equations of state in the chemical potential-pressure plane. Requiring that the equation of state approach APR at low densities, we find that the quark pressure in nonconfining models can be larger than the hadronic pressure, unlike in conventional equations of state. We show that consistent equations of state of stiffness sufficient to allow massive neutron stars are reasonably tightly constrained, suggesting that gluon dynamics remains nonperturbative even at baryon densities ~10n 0 .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Causes and evolution of winter polynyas north of Greenland

During the 42-year period (1979–2020) of satellite measurements, four major winter (December–March) polynyas have been observed north of Greenland: one in December 1986 and three in the last decade, i.e., February of 2011, 2017, and 2018. The 2018 polynya was unparalleled in its magnitude and duration compared to the three previous events. Given the apparent recent increase in the occurrence of these extreme events, this study aims to examine their evolution and causality, in terms of forced versus natural variability. The limited weather station and remotely sensed sea ice data are analyzed combining with output from the fully coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), including one hindcast and two ensemble simulations. We found that neither the accompanying anomalous warm surface air intrusion nor the ocean below had an impact (i.e., no significant ice melting) on the evolution of the observed winter open-water episodes in the region. Instead, the extreme atmospheric wind forcing resulted in greater sea ice deformation and transport offshore, accounting for the majority of sea ice loss in all four polynyas. Our analysis suggests that strong southerly winds (i.e., northward wind with speeds greater than 10 m s –1 ) blowing persistently over the study region for at least 2 d or more were required over the study region to mechanically redistribute some of the thickest Arctic sea ice out of the region and thus to create open-water areas (i.e., a latent heat polynya). To assess the role of internal variability versus external forcing of such events, we carried out and examined results from the two RASM ensembles dynamically downscaled with output from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) simulations. Out of 100 winters in each of the two ensembles (initialized 30 years apart: one in December 1985 and another in December 2015), 17 and 16 winter polynyas were produced north of Greenland, respectively. The frequency of polynya occurrence had no apparent sensitivity to the initial sea ice thickness in the study area pointing to internal variability of atmospheric forcing as a dominant cause of winter polynyas north of Greenland. We assert that dynamical downscaling using a high-resolution regional climate model offers a robust tool for process-level examination in space and time, synthesis with limited observations, and probabilistic forecasts of Arctic events, such as the ones being investigated here and elsewhere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗