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This dataset contains the iSALE jdata output files used for our article "Evidence for an early formation of Serenitatis basin at 4.25 Ga shifts lunar chronology" We also include example input files (asteroid.inp and material.inp).
With shifting environmental trends, many Earth system elements may be poised to undergo critical transitions or ‘tipping’. Reliable anticipation of these tipping elements is vital to inform policy decisions. Many of the current methods for tipping point detection are based on loss of resilience or ‘critical slowdown’ of the system as it approaches a tipping point. However, these methods are prone to false alarms; the detected slowdown may be an artifact of nonstationary noise unrelated to tipping behavior. Here, we explore the efficacy of early warning signs based on a nonequilibrium thermodynamics framework. The model-free detection method relies on the increased intrinsic time-irreversibility due to detailed balance breaking, preceding the onset of tipping or instabilities. We demonstrate that these EWSs are effective for tipping point detection and robust against false alarms due to nonstationary noise, using idealized models for two key elements of the Earth system that are prone to tipping: the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Arctic sea-ice loss.
Our project aimed to guide the representations of peatland hydrology and water-carbon feedbacks within Earth System Models, by improving process understanding and developing parsimonious models that elucidate the effects of hydroclimatic variability and spatial heterogeneity. Our research questions centered on the three key drivers of peatland hydrology: (1) seasonal and interannual hydroclimatic fluctuations, (2) spatial heterogeneity of peatland microtopography, and (3) hydrological connectivity across landscape units within a peatland watershed. Our analyses and model testing used existing long-term datasets within the Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF), with new data collected whenever necessary. To date, we have demonstrated the strong influence of water table elevations on the temperature sensitivity of CH 4 emissions, using a newly developed eddy covariance dataset spanning eleven years at MEF. Specifically, higher water tables dampen the increase in CH 4 emissions in the spring as well as their decrease in the fall, resulting in hysteresis. These results imply that any hydroclimatological changes in peatlands that shift seasonal water availability from winter to summer will increase annual CH 4 emissions, even if soil temperature remains unchanged. To further investigate water table elevation change within the peatland microtopography, we installed automated water table gauges across four bog-forest transects (the “lagg”) in two peatland watersheds at MEF, which are hotspots of intense biogeochemical activity. These measurements will give us new information about the extent of lagg expansion and contraction during snowmelt and high intensity rainfall events, as well as the directionality of water and nutrient flow into the bog from the surrounding forests. Finally, we investigated the hydrological connectivity across the peatland watershed complex during early spring – a critical period where water table is elevated from snowmelt – using extended hydrological records from MEF (e.g., snow and frost depths, water table elevations, streamflow). The importance of thermal and wintertime processes within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) was determined through sensitivity analyses. Results from data analyses show that (i) streamflow has decreased over decades likely due to increased evapotranspiration rates (despite no detectable trends in precipitation), (ii) spring streamflow generation is controlled by a sequence of fill-and-spill pathways from the snowpack to the stream through peatland water stores, and (iii) frost depth is a key explanatory variable for the timing and magnitude of streamflow. These results suggest that frost plays an important role in connecting surface water storage in peatlands to stream outlets, and that the hydrological connectivity across the peatland watershed complex can mediate the sensitivity of hydrological responses to climate variations.
Nickel is a bioessential metal that is used in enzymes important to the C, N, and O cycles, and changes in its marine abundance and bioavailability may have affected the evolutionary trajectory of early life. Changes over time in the Ni isotope composition (δ 60 Ni) of surface seawater, which reflects biological demand for Ni, could allow for the reconstruction of the dynamics of Ni demand over Earth’s history, but this approach would require geologic records of surface seawater. Here, we investigate the fidelity of shallow-water carbonates as a record of the Ni isotope composition of surface seawater by determining how Ni is first partitioned into natural carbonates and then how post-depositional processes influence the Ni signal. Our samples come from the Great Bahama Bank, which is a well-studied, modern carbonate platform often used to study ancient platforms. We found that Ni is fractionated from seawater upon incorporation into carbonates capturing shallow (<18 cm), recent deposition (0.1 ‰–0.4 ‰ lighter than seawater). Variation among these [Ni] and δ 60 Ni values may be controlled by variation in mineral proportions. Meteoric diagenesis shifts δ 60 Ni to lower values, which we attribute to isotopically light meteoric fluids. In contrast, carbonates that experienced sediment-buffered marine diagenesis with respect to Ca isotopes and Sr/Ca ratios do not appear to differ in δ 60 Ni values from sediments generally representative of their initial deposition. The sensitivity of δ 60 Ni to diagenetic reset in these samples appears comparable to the sensitivities of Ca isotopes and Sr/Ca ratios, to first order. Thus, in general, carbonates that experienced sediment-buffered marine diagenesis with respect to these elements may hold the most promise as a record of the δ 60 Ni of coeval surface seawater. Additionally, we use our results to infer that the fraction of Ni removed from seawater into carbonates is less than 10 % of the total Ni output from the global oceans and incorporation of this Ni sink into global biogeochemical models will only have a minor impact on the modeled modern Ni budget.
Significance The growing use of lanthanides in various industries has increased the potential for human exposure to large concentrations of these heavy metals throughout the life cycle of new technologies, requiring more detailed investigations into their toxicological properties. The eukaryote model organism Saccharomyces cerevisiae is ideal to apply functional toxicogenomics tools at the system level and probe fundamental cellular functions disrupted by rare-earth metals. A comprehensive mechanistic assay was conducted to evaluate toxicity across the entire lanthanide series and provide information about which toxicological mechanisms may be shared by the different metals. We identified distinct characteristic behaviors between early and middle/late lanthanides, highlighting the powerful discrimination capabilities of natural systems and pointing to detailed mechanistic pathways associated with lanthanide exposure.
The CICE Consortium accomplished a number of major upgrades to our sea ice model code, scripts and testing infrastructure, while strengthening our visibility in the international modeling community. We released CICE versions 6.0.0, 6.0.1, 6.0.2 and 6.1.0, all of which include updated releases of Icepack. Major new capabilities include a floe size distribution, new coupling infrastructure, improvements to all of CICE’s dynamics options, a new atmospheric data set for historical simulations, overhauled documentation, and more robust and flexible scripts for running and testing the code. Several key testing processes were automated this year. In addition, the team is actively engaged in planning our first user workshop and tutorial in February 2020. In addition to overseeing modifications to the Consortium’s resources and code releases, management tasks included meeting with and updating the Consortium’s Sponsors group in October 2018, prioritizing tasks by mapping them onto potential release targets, and rescuing early CICE releases (version 1 through 3.14) from a disappearing LANL archive.
A warmer climate increases evaporative demand. However, response to warming depends on water availability. Existing earth system models represent soil moisture but simplify groundwater connections, a primary control on soil moisture. Here we apply an integrated surface-groundwater hydrologic model to evaluate the sensitivity of shallow groundwater to warming across the majority of the US. We show that as warming shifts the balance between water supply and demand, shallow groundwater storage can buffer plant water stress; but only where shallow groundwater connections are present, and not indefinitely. As warming persists, storage can be depleted and connections lost. Similarly, in the arid western US warming does not result in significant groundwater changes because this area is already largely water limited. The direct response of shallow groundwater storage to warming demonstrates the strong and early effect that low to moderate warming may have on groundwater storage and evapotranspiration.
This project aims to study the response of liquid-phase clouds to aerosol perturbation and reduce the related uncertainty in the DOE Earth system model. Specific objectives include: Objective 1: Quantify the aerosol indirect effect on liquid-phase clouds using ARM observations and satellite retrievals while constraining the confounding large-scale conditions; Objective 2: Harness LES case studies, untangle the confounding meteorological impacts on the observed aerosol indirect effect, and identify key cloud processes controlling the net radiative forcing of aerosol-cloud interactions at different spatiotemporal scales; Objective 3: Evaluate the aerosol indirect effect on liquid-phase clouds with process-level understanding in E3SM multiscale model configurations.
Abstract An idealized large-eddy simulation of a tropical marine cloud population was performed. At any time, it contained hundreds of clouds, and updraft width in shallow convection emerging from a subcloud layer appeared to be an important indicator of whether specific convective elements deepened. In an environment with 80%–90% relative humidity below the 0°C level, updrafts that penetrated the 0°C level were larger at and above cloud base, which occurred at the lifting condensation level near 600 m. Parcels rising in these updrafts appeared to emerge from boundary layer eddies that averaged ∼200 m wider than those in clouds that only reached 1.5–3 km height. The deeply ascending parcels (growers) possessed statistically similar values of effective buoyancy below the level of free convection (LFC) as parcels that began to ascend in a cloud but stopped before reaching 3000 m (nongrowers). The growers also experienced less dilution above the LFC. Nongrowers were characterized by negative effective buoyancy and rapid deceleration above the LFC, while growers continued to accelerate well above the LFC. Growers occurred in areas with a greater magnitude of background convergence (or weaker divergence) in the subcloud layer, especially between 300 m and cloud base, but whether the convergence actually led to eddy widening is unclear. Significance Statement Cumulonimbus clouds are responsible for many extreme weather phenomena and are important contributors to Earth’s energy balance. However, the processes leading to the growth of individual clouds are not completely understood nor well-represented in weather prediction models. We find that the clouds containing updrafts that start out wider at early stages of their life cycles grow taller, possibly because they are protected more from drier air outside the cloud than narrow clouds. In addition, this work shows how the initial width of clouds might be related to convergence in the lowest part of the atmosphere, at heights where clouds initially develop. However, meteorologists must be careful not to overinterpret these results because numerical simulations inherently include assumptions that may not reflect reality. This reinforces the need to also observe processes occurring at the scales of individual clouds.
Abstract As climate change continues, the likelihood of passing critical thresholds or tipping points increases. Hence, there is a need to advance the science for detecting such thresholds. In this paper, we assess the needs and opportunities for Earth Observation (EO, here understood to refer to satellite observations) to inform society in responding to the risks associated with ten potential large-scale ocean tipping elements: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; Atlantic Subpolar Gyre; Beaufort Gyre; Arctic halocline; Kuroshio Large Meander; deoxygenation; phytoplankton; zooplankton; higher level ecosystems (including fisheries); and marine biodiversity. We review current scientific understanding and identify specific EO and related modelling needs for each of these tipping elements. We draw out some generic points that apply across several of the elements. These common points include the importance of maintaining long-term, consistent time series; the need to combine EO data consistently with in situ data types (including subsurface), for example through data assimilation; and the need to reduce or work with current mismatches in resolution (in both directions) between climate models and EO datasets. Our analysis shows that developing EO, modelling and prediction systems together, with understanding of the strengths and limitations of each, provides many promising paths towards monitoring and early warning systems for tipping, and towards the development of the next generation of climate models.
In June 2020, the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Basin were affected by a series of African dust outbreaks unprecedented in size and intensity. These events, informally named “Godzilla,” coincided with CALIMA, a large field campaign, offering a rare opportunity to assess the impact of African dust on air quality in the Greater Caribbean Basin. Network measurements of respirable particles (i.e., PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) showed that dust significantly degraded regional air quality and increased the risk to public health in the Caribbean, the southern United States, northern South America, and Central America. CALIMA examined the meteorological context of Godzilla dust events over North Africa and how these conditions might relate to the greatly increased dust emissions and enhanced transport to the Americas. Godzilla was linked to strong pressure anomalies over West Africa, resulting in a large-scale geostrophic wind anomaly at 700 hPa over North Africa. We used surface-based and columnar measurements to test the performance of two frequently used aerosol forecast models: the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) models. The models showed some skills but differed substantially between their forecasts, suggesting large uncertainties in these forecasts that are critical for issuing early warnings of health-threatening dust events. Our results demonstrate the value of an integrated approach in characterizing the spatial and temporal variability of African dust transport and assessing its impact on regional air quality. Future studies are needed to improve models and to track the long-term changes in dust transport from Africa under a changing climate.
Abstract Atlantic hurricane season length is important for emergency management preparation, motivating the need to understand its variability and change. We investigated the influence of ocean variability on Atlantic hurricane season length in observations and a future climate simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We found that multiple factors influence hurricane season length, through their influence on season start and end. Warm western subtropical Atlantic sea‐surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) during boreal spring (before the official hurricane season start) drive early starts to the hurricane season, and vice versa for cool SSTAs. Meanwhile, La Niña in autumn (before the official hurricane season end) drives late ends to the hurricane season, and vice versa for El Niño. E3SM projects a 27‐day increase in future Atlantic hurricane season length given La Niña and warm northern tropical Atlantic SSTAs. This research documents sources of predictability for Atlantic hurricane season length.
The end-Cretaceous Chicxulub impact triggered Earth’s last mass-extinction, extinguishing ~ 75% of species diversity and facilitating a global ecological shift to mammal-dominated biomes. Temporal details of the impact event on a fine scale (hour-to-day), important to understanding the early trajectory of mass-extinction, have largely eluded previous studies. This study employs histological and histo-isotopic analyses of fossil fish that were coeval with a unique impact-triggered mass-death assemblage from the Cretaceous-Paleogene (KPg) boundary in North Dakota (USA). Patterns of growth history, including periodicity of δ 18 O and δ 13 C and growth band morphology, plus corroborating data from fish ontogeny and seasonal insect behavior, reveal that the impact occurred during boreal Spring/Summer, shortly after the spawning season for fish and most continental taxa. The severity and taxonomic symmetry of response to global natural hazards are influenced by the season during which they occur, suggesting that post-impact perturbations could have exerted a selective force that was exacerbated by seasonal timing. Data from this study can also provide vital hindsight into patterns of extant biotic response to global-scale hazards that are relevant to both current and future biomes.
As a phase that travels through the crustal waveguide, Lg samples the velocity and attenuation structure of the crust. We have developed methods (Pasyanos et al., 2009a; Pasyanos et al., 2009b) to estimate Qp and Qs of the crust and upper mantle from the amplitudes of regional phases, and have applied it to a number of regions around the world, and over a broad frequency band (0.5 - 10 Hz). In prior attenuation modeling, Lg phase amplitudes are able to effectively distinguish the high Q (low attenuation) of old stable cratonic crust from the low Q (high attenuation) of more recently active tectonic regions. For a variety of purposes (e.g. waveform modeling, seismic hazard, etc.), it is useful to have more information on the depth-dependence of the Q structure in the crust. One obvious candidate for doing this is using the frequency-dependence information of Lg Q, in the manner of surface waves. Unfortunately, however, Lg samples the whole of the crust without much differentiation with respect to frequency that is characteristic of fundamental mode surface waves. Lg is generally thought to be the sum of supercritically reflected S-waves trapped in the crustal waveguide (e.g. Xie and Lay, 1994). The phase can also be modeled as a superposition of surface waves. At lower frequencies, it is primarily composed of fundamental and low-order surface waves, while at higher frequencies, it is comprised purely of many high-order surface waves. The low-order surface waves that comprise Lg in low frequency bands (< 1 Hz) are preferentially sensitive to shallow earth structure, such as sedimentary basins and upper crust, while high-order surface waves have a more homogenized sensitivity to the whole crust. Furthermore, at the lower frequencies, we might expect to see some differentiation in the sensitivity between early Lg (herein referred to as Lg1) and late Lg (referred to as Lg2) where the latter is comprised of lower-order surface waves and, hence, shallower structure. Therefore, we might expect to see the signature of shallow features, primarily the lower Q of sediments as compared to crystalline crust, at lower frequencies and in later arriving Lg amplitudes.
Crewed missions to the Moon may resume as early as 2026 with NASA's Artemis III mission, and lunar dust exposure/inhalation is a potentially serious health hazard that requires detailed study. Current dust exposure limits are based on Apollo-era samples that spent decades in long-term storage on Earth; their diminished reactivity may lead to underestimation of potential harm that could be caused by lunar dust exposure. In particular, lunar dust contains nanophase metallic iron grains, produced by “space weathering”; the reactivity of this unique component of lunar dust is not well understood. Herein, we employ a chemical reduction technique that exposes lunar simulants to heat and hydrogen gas to produce metallic iron particles on grain surfaces. We assess the capacity of these reduced lunar simulants to generate hydroxyl radical (OH*) when immersed in deionized (DI) water, simulated lung fluid (SLF), and artificial lysosomal fluid (ALF). Lunar simulant reduction produces surface-adhered metallic iron “blebs” that resemble nanophase metallic iron particles found in lunar dust grains. Reduced samples generate ~5–100× greater concentrations of the oxidative OH* in DI water versus non-reduced simulants, which we attribute to metallic iron. SLF and ALF appear to reduce measured OH*. The increase in observed OH* generation for reduced simulants implies high oxidative damage upon exposure to lunar dust. Low levels of OH* measured in SLF and ALF imply potential damage to proteins or quenching of OH* generation, respectively. Reduction of lunar dust simulants provides a quick cost-effective approach to study dusty materials analogous to authentic lunar dust.
Greater-than-Class C (GTCC) waste is low-level waste (LLW) that exceeds the Class C concentrations tabulated in Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), Part 61. Disposal of GTCC waste in the near surface (i.e. upper 30 m of the earth's surface) is prohibited in the United States. Though GTCC waste disposal is generally prohibited, the Commission can approve disposal according to 10 CFR 61.55(a)(2)(iv) on a case-by-case basis. The waste classification tables, developed in the early 1980's, were based on model projections of dose to an inadvertent intruder in agricultural, construction, and discovery exposure scenarios. The assumptions and parameters used were documented in a series of public reports. Though different disposal facility designs and site conditions were considered, the waste classification tables were based on a disposal facility design located in a specific environment. The tables were based on shallow (i.e., top few meters) trench facility designs and did not consider deeper facilities. To determine the suitability of GTCC waste disposal in the near-surface, site-specific analyses must account for differences between GTCC waste and Class A, B, and C LLW (hereafter, traditional LLW). GTCC waste can have concentrations of radionuclides that are much higher than traditional LLW. Because of these higher concentrations, processes that are typically not significant for traditional LLW may be significant with respect to disposal of GTCC waste. These processes include, but are not limited to, heat generation, criticality, and radiolysis. The form of the waste as well as the barriers to release of the waste (e.g. waste package) could be substantially different than they are for traditional LLW. These barriers need to be considered when assessing the impacts of accidents during receipt and placement and in evaluating long-term performance. Some GTCC radioactivity is either embedded in stainless steel or contained in stainless steel barriers. Stainless steel can have very low corrosion rates under a variety of environmental conditions. Finally, and possibly most importantly, GTCC waste would likely need to be disposed deeper than traditional LLW to reduce the probability of disturbance. The waste classification table values of traditional LLW are based on an inadvertent intruder excavating into the waste and bringing some of the material to the land surface. If waste is deeper than approximately 5 m, the excavation scenario becomes very unlikely. Therefore, other intruder scenarios, such as drilling exposure scenarios, need to be evaluated. This paper summarizes key technical issues for the disposal of GTCC waste. Our previous study shows that certain GTCC waste may be suitable for near surface disposal whereas others may not. This study may support ongoing technical analyses assessing potential disposal of GTCC in a near surface disposal facility. (authors)
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are filamentary structures within the atmosphere that account for a substantial portion of poleward moisture transport and play an important role in Earth's hydroclimate. However, there is no one quantitative definition for what constitutes an atmospheric river, leading to uncertainty in quantifying how these systems respond to global change. This study seeks to better understand how different AR detection tools (ARDTs) respond to changes in climate states utilizing single-forcing climate model experiments under the aegis of the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP). We compare a simulation with an early Holocene orbital configuration and another with CO2 levels of the Last Glacial Maximum to a preindustrial control simulation to test how the ARDTs respond to changes in seasonality and mean climate state, respectively. We find good agreement among the algorithms in the AR response to the changing orbital configuration, with a poleward shift in AR frequency that tracks seasonal poleward shifts in atmospheric water vapor and zonal winds. In the low CO2 simulation, the algorithms generally agree on the sign of AR changes, but there is substantial spread in their magnitude, indicating that mean-state changes lead to larger uncertainty. This disagreement likely arises primarily from differences between algorithms in their thresholds for water vapor and its transport used for identifying ARs. These findings warrant caution in ARDT selection for paleoclimate and climate change studies in which there is a change to the mean climate state, as ARDT selection contributes substantial uncertainty in such cases.
Climate change models predict increasing precipitation variability in the mid-latitude regions of Earth, generating a need to reduce the negative impacts of these changes on crop production. Despite considerable research on how cover crops support agriculture in a changing climate, understanding is limited of how climate change influences the growth of cover crops. We investigated the early development of two common cover crop species—crimson clover (Trifolium incarnatum) and rye (Secale cereale)—and hypothesized that growing them in the mixture would ameliorate stress from drought or waterlogging. This hypothesis was tested in a 25-day greenhouse experiment, where the two factors (species number and water stress) were fully crossed in randomized blocks, and plant responses were quantified through survival, growth rate, biomass production and root morphology. Water stress negatively influenced the early growth of these two species in contrasting ways: crimson clover was susceptible to drought while rye performed poorly under waterlogging. Per-plant biomass in rye was always greater in mixture than in monoculture, while per-plant biomass of crimson clover was greater in mixture under drought. Both species grew longer roots in mixture than in monoculture under drought, and total biomass of mixtures did not differ significantly from the more-productive monoculture (rye) in any water condition. In the face of increasingly variable precipitation, growing crimson clover and rye together has potential to ameliorate water stress, a possibility that should be further investigated in field experiments.