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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8

Diagnosis of convective organization and cold pools using ARM datasets and evaluation of a unified convection parameterization (UNICON)

Tropical thunderstorms often cluster together. Studies have suggested that the degree to which the tropical thunderstorms are clustered impacts Earth's energy balance and water cycle, as well as extreme precipitation events. However, the processes controlling the spatial distribution of the thunderstorms are poorly understood and are not properly represented in most computer models for weather and climate prediction. Under the goals of better understanding how convection organizes at the mesoscale and advancing the representation of mesoscale convective organization in global climate models, we i) objectively quantified the degrees of convective organization and diagnosed cold pool processes using ARM field campaign observations, ii) examined the organization processes in storm-resolving model simulations, and iii) evaluated the impacts of mesoscale convective organization in global model simulations. The project yielded a firm reference against which the global model representation of mesoscale convective organization and cold pools can be evaluated against and shed new light into the role of parameterized convective organization in the global model simulation of the basic state and variability. Our results revealed two distinct phases of convective clustering during the two-day rain episodes (Cheng et al. 2018) and a new mechanism through which vertical wind shear in the low-troposphere can aid convective organization over tropical oceans (Cheng et al. 2020). It was demonstrated that the interactive representation of cold pools and mesoscale convective organization is key for global models to successfully simulate both the mean state and intraseasonal variability in the tropics (Ahn et al. 2019; 2020).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DUNE atmospheric neutrinos: Earth tomography

In this paper we show that the DUNE experiment can measure the Earth’s density profile by analyzing atmospheric neutrino oscillations. The crucial feature that enables such measurement is the detailed event reconstruction capability of liquid argon time projection chambers. This allows for studying the sub-GeV atmospheric neutrino component, which bears a rich oscillation phenomenology, strongly dependent on the matter potential sourced by the Earth. We provide a pedagogical discussion of the MSW and parametric resonances and their role in measuring the core and mantle densities. By performing a detailed simulation, accounting for particle reconstruction at DUNE, nuclear physics effects relevant to neutrino-argon interactions and several uncertainties on the atmospheric neutrino flux, we manage to obtain a robust estimate of DUNE’s sensitivity to the Earth matter profile. We find that DUNE can measure the total mass of the Earth at 9.3% precision with an exposure of 400 kton-year. By accounting for previous measurements of the total mass and moment of inertia of the Earth, the core, lower mantle and upper mantle densities can be determined with 9%, 14% and 22% precision, respectively, for the same exposure. Finally, for a low exposure run of 60 kton-year, which would correspond to two far detectors running for three years, we have found that the core density could be measured by DUNE at ∼ 30% precision.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Multi-messengers at ultra-high energies with the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Pierre Auger Observatory is an Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Ray (UHECR) detector which has studied cosmic particles with energies above and around 10 18 eV for more than 15 years. It has proved to be the most competitive instrument at these energies and has produced a wealth of valuable results, improving our understanding of UHECRs. A complete understanding of these highest energy particles is crucial to understand the extreme astrophysical events in which they are produced and accelerated, as well as their propagation to Earth. In the same range of energies, UHE photons and neutrinos are of paramount importance as, being electrically neutral, they point back to their origin while charged particles are deflected in the galactic and extragalactic magnetic fields. The flux of extragalactic photons, neutrinos, and cosmic rays are believed to be highly linked, by their origin and their interactions. Each messenger provides different information about the potential sources, and having detection means for all four messengers, including gravitational waves, allows us to shed light on energetic sources of astroparticles. The Pierre Auger Observatory benefits from a large exposure and a good angular resolution, and is efficient in detecting UHE photons and neutrinos. These performances make possible follow-up searches for events detected by gravitational waves, such as the binary mergers observed by the LIGO/Virgo detectors, or any other energetic sources of particles.

Binary black hole mergers↗

Preliminary Screening of Features, Events, and Processes for an Arctic-Focused Climate Intervention Performance Assessment

Geoengineering, the deliberate large-scale intervention in Earth's climate system, holds significant potential in the rapidly warming Arctic, where temperatures currently rise at more than twice the global average, accelerating ice sheet and permafrost melt. This contributes to global sea-level rise and releases methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Strategies like solar radiation management (SRM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) could mitigate these effects; for instance, SRM techniques aim to reflect a portion of the sun's energy back into space, potentially slowing ice melt and stabilizing permafrost. However, geoengineering in the Arctic faces challenges, including potential unintended consequences on the fragile ecosystem, disruption of local weather patterns, and impacts on indigenous communities. Effective governance requires robust international cooperation, environmental impact assessments, and regulatory frameworks. Despite these challenges, geoengineering's potential benefits make it a critical research area. This report explores application of the Performance Assessment (PA) methodology to Arctic Climate Intervention, providing an initial screening of relevant features, events, and processes (FEPs). At the core of the PA approach is the identification and evaluation of FEPs that could impact the performance of the intervention scheme. Here we provide an initial screening of FEPs to consider in the application of PA to Arctic Climate Intervention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A re-examination of the mechanism of whiting events: A new role for diatoms in Fayetteville Green Lake (New York, USA)

Whiting events—the episodic precipitation of fine-grained suspended calcium carbonates in the water column—have been documented across a variety of marine and lacustrine environments. Whitings likely are a major source of carbonate muds, a constituent of limestones, and important archives for geochemical proxies of Earth history. While several biological and physical mechanisms have been proposed to explain the onset of these precipitation events, no consensus has been reached thus far. Fayetteville Green Lake (New York, USA) is a meromictic lake that experiences annual whitings. Materials suspended in the water column collected through the whiting season were characterized using scanning electron microscopy and scanning transmission X-ray microscopy. Whitings in Fayetteville Green Lake are initiated in the spring within the top few meters of the water column, by precipitation of fine amorphous calcium carbonate (ACC) phases nucleating on microbial cells, as well as on abundant extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) frequently associated with centric diatoms. Whiting particles found in the summer consist of 5–7 μm calcite grains forming aggregates with diatoms and EPS. Simple calculations demonstrate that calcite particles continuously grow over several days, then sink quickly through the water column. In the late summer, partial calcium carbonate dissolution is observed deeper in the water column. Settling whiting particles, however, reach the bottom of the lake, where they form a major constituent of the sediment, along with diatom frustules. The role of diatoms and associated EPS acting as nucleation surfaces for calcium carbonates is described for the first time here as a potential mechanism participating in whitings at Fayetteville Green Lake. This mechanism may have been largely overlooked in other whiting events in modern and ancient environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Elevated-Mn ChemCam targets illuminating Mn redox cycling and diagenesis in the Bradbury Rise, Gale Crater, Mars

Manganese plays a crucial role as a paleo-environmental and geological indicator due to its sensitivity to redox potential and pH variations in the environment. On Earth, the association between the rise of atmospheric oxygen during the Great Oxidation Event and the presence of Mn in the sedimentary rock record underscores its significance. Here, in this study, we reexamined ChemCam targets from the first 600 sols of the Mars Science Laboratory mission, focusing on identifying instances of above-average Mn within these targets. These elevated-Mn targets were categorized into distinct geologic classes, revealing a pattern linking heightened Mn levels with diagenetically altered materials, such as calcium-sulfate veins and concretions, as well as clay minerals within the same targets, indicating a compelling relationship between Mn enrichment and diagenetic processes. High concentrations of Mn were observed in chemically altered targets, suggesting the occurrence of multiple fluid events: the first to alter the material and the second to deposit Mn. The observed patterns suggest multiple diagenetic events and redox cycling that facilitated the deposition and transport of Mn subsequent to the initial dissolution of basaltic materials. This research sheds light on the complexity of martian diagenetic processes and their implications for the planet’s environmental evolution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Numerical Simulations of the Geospace Response to the Arrival of an Idealized Perfect Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection

Abstract Previously, Tsurutani and Lakhina (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058825 ) created estimates for a “perfect” interplanetary coronal mass ejection and performed simple calculations for the response of geospace, including . In this study, these estimates are used to drive a coupled magnetohydrodynamic‐ring current‐ionosphere model of geospace to obtain more physically accurate estimates of the geospace response to such an event. The sudden impulse phase is examined and compared to the estimations of Tsurutani and Lakhina (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058825 ). The physics‐based simulation yields similar estimates for Dst rise, magnetopause compression, and equatorial values as the previous study. However, results diverge away from the equator. values in excess of 30 nT/s are found as low as magnetic latitude. Under southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions, magnetopause erosion combines with strong region one Birkeland currents to intensify the response. Values obtained here surpass those found in historically recorded events and set the upper threshold of extreme geomagnetically induced current activity at Earth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Search for dark matter from the center of the Earth with 10 years of IceCube data

The nature of dark matter remains unresolved in fundamental physics. Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs), which could explain the nature of dark matter, can be captured by celestial bodies like the Sun or Earth, leading to enhanced self-annihilation into Standard Model particles including neutrinos detectable by neutrino telescopes such as the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. This article presents a search for muon neutrinos from the center of the Earth performed with 10 years of IceCube data using a track-like event selection. We considered a number of WIMP annihilation channels (χχ→τ+τ-$$\chi \chi \rightarrow \tau ^+\tau ^-$$/W+W-$$W^+W^-$$/bb¯$$b\bar{b}$$) and masses ranging from 10 GeV to 10 TeV. No significant excess over background due to a dark matter signal was found while the most significant result corresponds to the annihilation channel χχ→bb¯$$\chi \chi \rightarrow b\bar{b}$$ for the mass mχ=250$$m_{\chi }=250$$ GeV with a post-trial significance of 1.06σ$$1.06\sigma $$. Our results are competitive with previous such searches and direct detection experiments. Our upper limits on the spin-independent WIMP scattering are world-leading among neutrino telescopes for WIMP masses mχ>100$$m_{\chi }>100$$ GeV.

Abbasi, R↗

Report on the sensitivity kernel construction and updating the SPiRaL model with waveform data

The WAVEFORMS Initiative in the Ground-based Nuclear Detonation Detection (GNDD) program includes research leading towards the prediction of entire seismic and acoustic waveforms produced by natural and manmade events, including explosions. A key aspect of this research is the development of Earth (seismic) models at multiple scales including crustal, regional, and global. The work described here pertains to the global-scale seismic tomography effort led by LLNL.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simulating Pyrocumulonimbus Clouds Using a Multiscale Wildfire Simulation Framework

Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds, driven by extreme fires under favorable meteorological conditions, can inject smoke into the stratosphere at magnitudes comparable to those of moderate volcanic eruptions, potentially altering the global radiative balance and atmospheric composition. However, simulating pyroCb is particularly challenging in Earth system models. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we developed a novel global multiscale framework to model pyroCb events in California, which includes a high‐resolution fire radiative power time series, a one‐dimensional plume‐rise parameterization, a fire‐induced vertical water vapor transport scheme, and a surface wildfire sensible heat flux representation. Our simulation successfully reproduces many pyroCb features, including cloud height, spatiotemporal evolution, and convective intensity in comparison with satellite and ground‐based observations. Sensitivity experiments show that realistic pyroCb simulation depends on vertical water vapor transport. These advances provide a basis for future exploration of pyroCb impacts at regional and global scales within climate models.

E3SM↗

Search for an eV-Scale Sterile Neutrino Using Improved High-Energy νμ Event Reconstruction in IceCube

This Letter presents the result of a 3+1 sterile neutrino search using 10.7 yr of IceCube data. We analyze atmospheric muon neutrinos that traverse the Earth with energies ranging from 0.5 to 100 TeV, incorporating significant improvements in modeling neutrino flux and detector response compared to earlier studies. Notably, for the first time, we categorize data into starting and throughgoing events, distinguishing neutrino interactions with vertices inside or outside the instrumented volume, to improve energy resolution. The best-fit point for a 3+1 model is found to be at sin^{2}(2θ_{24})=0.16 and Δm_{41}^{2}=3.5 eV^{2}, which agrees with previous iterations of this Letter. The result is consistent with the null hypothesis of no sterile neutrinos with a p value of 3.1%.

Neutrino detection↗

In Situ Inference for Earth System Predictability

An understanding of future evolution in precipitation extremes is critical to numerous DOE mission questions. Extreme events are by nature short time-scale events that are difficult to diagnose in available model data. Accurate modeling of extreme events necessarily requires high spatial resolution at the storm scale locally. However, the environment in which storms grow is dependent on global, remote, processes. These complex spatiotemporal relationships are impossible to diagnose at resolutions required to accurately model storms responsible for extreme precipitation. At exascale, climate simulations will produce results at fine enough resolution to investigate these relationships. However, the resulting data from these simulations will be far too large to save for post-simulation analysis. We advocate for fitting statistical models inside the simulations as they run, a context known as in situ, which will facilitate scientific investigations using the full fine-scale data stream. Figure 1 shows an example of the type of model we could consider, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial regression model. Precipitation extremes at each grid cell are modeled using extreme value distributions. Since extremes are rare, fitting models to individual grid cells can result in high variance and poor estimates. Instead, the model can be made more robust by smoothing the parameters of the extreme value model across space. Additionally, the parameters themselves can be functionally linked to other variables elsewhere in the simulation. Thus, we can use the fine-scale data to build more robust models for extremes that link extreme behavior to other climate patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring Multiscale Earth System and Human-Earth System Dynamics in the Puget Sound Region

With its mountain-to-coast hydroclimate, strong influence of Pacific Ocean weather systems and climate patterns, and unique land use history with strong rural-to-urban gradients, the Puget Sound region is a natural laboratory for studying a number of complex processes in, and interactions among, different Earth and human systems. A 1-year scoping study was initiated by the Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling program of the Department of Energy’s Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research. It was intended to elucidate and highlight the rich opportunities Puget Sound offers to advance our understanding of and ability to simulate Earth system changes and human-Earth system interactions. A literature review, multi-day community workshop, and external input were used to develop this scoping study report. The report first summarizes scientific understanding and knowledge gaps associated with major regional systems, including atmosphere and climate, the land surface, coastal and marine processes, and human systems, as well as how these systems are changing over time. It then highlights some of the most notable extreme events in the region, including heat waves, atmospheric rivers, droughts, and wildfires. Finally, key research opportunities for Earth and environmental systems modeling in, above, and around Puget Sound are highlighted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document For PreMevE 2.0 Model

Man-made satellites operating in medium- and high-altitude Earth orbits are continuously exposed to hazardous space radiation originated from different sources. Among them, one major contributor is the relativistic electron population—with kinetic energies comparable to or larger than their rest energy of 0.511 Megaelectron-volt (MeV)—trapped inside Earth’s outer Van Allen belt. Owing to their high penetration capability, these MeV electrons are difficult to be fully stopped by normal shielding. Particularly, during MeV electron events when electron intensities across the outer belt are greatly elevated to sustaining high levels—up to 10 3 - 10 4 times as observed in the geosynchronous (GEO) orbit and low-Earth-orbits (LEOs), space-borne electronic systems with inadequate hardening are susceptible to deep-dielectric charging and discharging phenomenon caused by those electrons, and thus may suffer severe damages or even stop functioning. Therefore, protecting critical space infrastructures from harsh space weather conditions– including MeV electron events – has high priority for many space sectors, such as the aerospace industry, service providers and government agencies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Changing windstorm characteristics over the US Northeast in a single model large ensemble

Abstract Extreme windstorms pose a significant hazard to infrastructure and public safety, particularly in the highly populated US Northeast (NE). However, the influence climate change and changing land use will have on these events remains unclear. A large ensemble generated using the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) Earth system model is used to generate projections of NE windstorms under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and to attribute changes to projected land use land cover (LULC) change, externally forced changes and internal climate variability. To reduce the influence of coarse grid cell resolution and uncertainties in surface roughness lengths, windstorms are identified using simultaneous widespread exceedance of local 99th percentile 10 m wind speeds (U 99 ). Projected declines in forest cover in the NE and the resulting reductions in surface roughness length under SSP3-7.0 lead to projections of large increases in U 99 and derived windstorm intensity and scale. However, these projected changes in regional LULC under SSP3-7.0 are unprecedented in a historical context and may not be realistic. After corrections are applied to remove the influence of LULC on wind speeds, regionally averaged U 99 exhibit declines for most of the single model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) members which are broadly proportional to the radiative forcing and global air temperature increase in the SSPs, with a median value of −0.15 ms −1 °C −1 . While weak cyclones are projected to decline in frequency in the NE, intense cyclones and the resulting windstorms and indices of socioeconomic loss do not. Where present, significant trends in these loss indices are positive, and some MPI SMILE members generate future windstorms that are unprecedented in the historical period.

Coburn, Jacob (ORCID:0000000309538117)↗

Characterization of Infrasonic Signatures of Earth-Grazing Fireballs as Analogues to Hypersonic Vehicles (Final Report)

Accurate detection, discrimination, and characterization of high-altitude hypersonic events using infrasonic monitoring are critical to planetary defense and global strategic surveillance. This report synthesizes recent advances achieved through rigorous analysis of infrasonic signatures from natural meteoroids, emphasizing shallow entry-angle meteoroids as essentially proxies for artificial hypersonic systems. Meteoroids naturally encompass diverse velocities, trajectories, altitudes, and fragmentation behaviors, enabling systematic validation of empirical period–yield relationships, waveform morphology classifiers, and trajectory-induced back-azimuth deviation models. Integration of adaptive array-processing enhancements within Cardinal software further extends infrasonic detection sensitivity and signal classification reliability. Collectively these advances, based solely on infrasonic signatures or limited optical data, offer robust methodologies for distinguishing natural from artificial hypersonic sources, significantly reducing event geolocation uncertainties and refining source-function determination. The outcomes detailed herein lay foundational groundwork for improved global hypersonic event-surveillance frameworks, supporting improved security preparedness and informing strategic monitoring and defense policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Polarized Radiative Transfer Codes Used by the EHT Collaboration

Interpretation of resolved polarized images of black holes by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) requires predictions of the polarized emission observable by an Earth-based instrument for a particular model of the black hole accretion system. Such predictions are generated by general relativistic radiative transfer (GRRT) codes, which integrate the equations of polarized radiative transfer in curved spacetime. A selection of ray-tracing GRRT codes used within the EHT Collaboration is evaluated for accuracy and consistency in producing a selection of test images, demonstrating that the various methods and implementations of radiative transfer calculations are highly consistent. When imaging an analytic accretion model, we find that all codes produce images similar within a pixel-wise normalized mean squared error (NMSE) of 0.012 in the worst case. When imaging a snapshot from a cell-based magnetohydrodynamic simulation, we find all test images to be similar within NMSEs of 0.02, 0.04, 0.04, and 0.12 in Stokes I , Q , U , and V , respectively. We additionally find the values of several image metrics relevant to published EHT results to be in agreement to much better precision than measurement uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Space radiation measurements during the Artemis I lunar mission

Space radiation is a notable hazard for long-duration human spaceflight. Associated risks include cancer, cataracts, degenerative diseases and tissue reactions from large, acute exposures. Space radiation originates from diverse sources, including galactic cosmic rays, trapped-particle (Van Allen) belts5 and solar-particle events. Previous radiation data are from the International Space Station and the Space Shuttle in low-Earth orbit protected by heavy shielding and Earth’s magnetic field and lightly shielded interplanetary robotic probes such as Mars Science Laboratory and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. Limited data from the Apollo missions and ground measurements with substantial caveats are also available. Here we report radiation measurements from the heavily shielded Orion spacecraft on the uncrewed Artemis I lunar mission. At differing shielding locations inside the vehicle, a fourfold difference in dose rates was observed during proton-belt passes that are similar to large, reference solar-particle events. Interplanetary cosmic-ray dose equivalent rates in Orion were as much as 60% lower than previous observations. Furthermore, a change in orientation of the spacecraft during the proton-belt transit resulted in a reduction of radiation dose rates of around 50%. These measurements validate the Orion for future crewed exploration and inform future human spaceflight mission design.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗