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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation of radioactive plume transport in the atmosphere including dynamics of particle aggregation and breakup

Accurate prediction of the atmospheric transport of debris particles relies heavily on our knowledge of the size distribution of the particles within a debris cloud. Assuming a fixed particle size during simulations is not always viable since the size distribution of the debris can change during transport. Various microphysical processes, such as aggregation and breakup, influence debris particles and dictate any changes to the size distribution. To track those changes that can occur, a population balance model can be adopted and instituted within a model framework. Nonetheless, many of the models that simulate the transport of radioactive debris following a device-driven fission incident have historically neglected to consider these processes. As such, this work describes our effort to develop a modeling framework capable of simulating the transport and deposition of a radioactive plume generated from a fission incident with a dynamic population balance including particle aggregation and breakup. Herein the impact of aggregation and breakup, individually and collectively, on the particle size distribution is explored using the developed framework. When simulating aggregation, for example, six mechanisms, including Brownian coagulation, the convective enhancement to Brownian coagulation, van der Waals-viscous force correction for Brownian coagulation, gravitational collection, turbulent inertial motion, and turbulent shear, are considered. Brownian coagulation and its corrections have, as one would expect, a large impact on relatively small aggregates. Aggregates with a diameter that is less than or equal to 1.0 μm, for instance, comprise 50.6 vol % of all aggregates in the absence of aggregation and 31.2 vol % when Brownian coagulation and its corrections are considered. Gravitational collection and, to a much lesser extent, turbulent shear and turbulent inertial motion are, conversely, of great importance to relatively large aggregates (i.e., diameter greater than 3.0 μm). Additionally, the individual effects of atmospheric and particle parameters, such as wind speed and particle density, are examined. Of the parameters examined, turbulent energy dissipation and aggregate fractal dimension (i.e., aggregate shape with lower values representing more irregular particles) were of substantial importance since both terms directly impact aggregate stability and, by extension, the breakup rate. Large-scale transport and deposition simulations in a dry atmosphere are also presented and discussed as a proof of concept.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding of Ag Nanocatalysts for Electrocatalytic CO2 Conversion: Effects of Particle Size and Carbon Support

In this talk, we combined ultrahigh vacuum (UHV) surface science techniques, electrochemical measurements, and computational modeling to investigate Ag based electrocatalysts for CO2 reduction reaction (CO2RR). Our goal is to understand the critical characteristics governing the activity and selectivity of Ag electrocatalysts. Ag electrocatalysts were grown on highly oriented pyrolytic graphite (HOPG) in the UHV chamber, characterized with X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and scanning tunneling microscopy (STM), and then tested in a custom-built gastight H-cell. Supported by computational modeling based on density functional theory (DFT) calculations and microkinetic modeling (MKM), our studies revealed a strong size-dependent electrocatalytic CO2-to-CO conversion of the Ag nanoparticle electrocatalysts with average particle diameter between 2 to 6 nm. Smaller diameter (< 3 nm) particles favored H2 evolution reaction (HER) due to a high population of Ag edge sites, whereas larger diameter particles favored CO2RR as the population of Ag(100) surface sites grew. We further discovered that electronic interactions between small diameter Ag particles and highly defective carbon supports could break the size-dependent CO2RR reactivity, resulting in highly selective (CO Faradaic Efficiency > 90%) and active Ag nanoparticle electrocatalysts with sizes < 2 nm diameter. This knowledge is key to understand electrocatalysts performance and to ultimately guide electrocatalyst design

Ag nanoparticles↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Strong Gravitational Lens Is Worth a Thousand Dark Matter Halos: Inference on Small-scale Structure Using Sequential Methods

Strong gravitational lenses are a singular probe of the Universe’s small-scale structure—they are sensitive to the gravitational effects of low-mass (<10 10 M ⊙ ) halos even without a luminous counterpart. Recent strong-lensing analyses of dark matter structure rely on simulation-based inference (SBI). Modern SBI methods, which leverage neural networks as density estimators, have shown promise in extracting the halo-population signal. However, it is unclear whether the constraints from these models are limited by the methodology or the data. In this study, we introduce an accelerator-optimized simulation pipeline that can generate lens images with realistic subhalo populations in milliseconds. Leveraging this simulator, we identify the main limitation of our fiducial SBI analysis: training set size. We then adopt a sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) approach, allowing us to refine the training distribution to align with the observed data. Using only one-fifth as many mock Hubble Space Telescope images, SNPE matches the constraints on the low-mass halo population produced by our best nonsequential model. Our experiments suggest that an over 3 order-of-magnitude increase in training set size and GPU hours would be required to achieve an equivalent result without sequential methods. While the full potential of the existing lens sample remains to be explored, the notable improvement in constraining power enabled by our sequential approach highlights that current constraints are limited primarily by methodology and not the data itself. Moreover, our results emphasize the need to treat training set generation and model optimization as interconnected stages of any cosmological analysis using SBI.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The effect of non-linear mutual friction on pulsar glitch sizes and rise times

ABSTRACT Observations of pulsar glitches have the potential to provide constraints on the dynamics of the high density interior of neutron stars. However, to do so, realistic glitch models must be constructed and compared to the data. We take a step towards this goal by testing non-linear models for the mutual friction force, which is responsible for the exchange of angular momentum between the neutron superfluid and the observable normal component in a glitch. In particular, we consider a non-linear dependence of the drag force on the relative velocity between superfluid vortices and the normal component, in which the contributions of both kelvin and phonon excitations are included. This non-linear model produces qualitatively new features, and is able to reproduce the observed bimodal distribution of glitch sizes in the pulsar population. The model also suggests that the differences in size distributions in individual pulsars may be due to the glitches being triggered in regions with different pinning strengths, as stronger pinning leads to higher vortex velocities and a qualitatively different mutual friction coupling with respect to the weak pinning case. Glitches in pulsars that appear to glitch quasi-periodically with similar sizes may thus be due to the same mechanisms as smaller events in pulsars that have no preferred glitch size, but simply originate in stronger pinning regions, possibly in the core of the star.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Comprehensive Analysis of Uncertainties in Warm-Rain Parameterizations in Climate Models Based on In Situ Measurements

Abstract Because of the coarse grid size of Earth system models (ESMs), representing warm-rain processes in ESMs is a challenging task involving multiple sources of uncertainty. Previous studies evaluated warm-rain parameterizations mainly according to their performance in emulating collision–coalescence rates for local droplet populations over a short period of a few seconds. The representativeness of these local process rates comes into question when applied in ESMs for grid sizes on the order of 100 km and time steps on the order of 20–30 min. We evaluate several widely used warm-rain parameterizations in ESM application scenarios. In the comparison of local and instantaneous autoconversion rates, the two parameterization schemes based on numerical fitting to stochastic collection equation (SCE) results perform best. However, because of Jessen’s inequality, their performance deteriorates when grid-mean, instead of locally resolved, cloud properties are used in their simulations. In contrast, the effect of Jessen’s inequality partly cancels the overestimation problem of two semianalytical schemes, leading to an improvement in the ESM-like comparison. In the assessment of uncertainty due to the large time step of ESMs, it is found that the rainwater tendency simulated by the SCE is roughly linear for time steps smaller than 10 min, but the nonlinearity effect becomes significant for larger time steps, leading to errors up to a factor of 4 for a time step of 20 min. After considering all uncertainties, the grid-mean and time-averaged rainwater tendency based on the parameterization schemes is mostly within a factor of 4 of the local benchmark results simulated by SCE.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

The gut mycobiota of rural and urban individuals is shaped by geography

Understanding the structure and drivers of gut microbiota remains a major ecological endeavour. Recent studies have shown that several factors including diet, lifestyle and geography may substantially shape the human gut microbiota. However, most of these studies have focused on the more abundant bacterial component and comparatively less is known regarding fungi in the human gut. This knowledge deficit is especially true for rural and urban African populations. Therefore, we assessed the structure and drivers of rural and urban gut mycobiota. Results Our participants (n=100) were balanced by geography and sex. The mycobiota of these geographically separated cohorts was characterized using amplicon analysis of the Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS) gene. We further assessed biomarker species specific to rural and urban cohorts. In addition to phyla which have been shown to be ubiquitous constituents of gut microbiota, Pichia were key constituents of the mycobiota. We found that several factors including geographic location and lifestyle factors such as the smoking status were major drivers of gut mycobiota. Linear discriminant and the linear discriminant analysis effect size analysis revealed several distinct urban and rural biomarkers. Conclusions Together, our analysis reveals distinct community structure in urban and rural South African individuals. Geography and lifestyle related factors were shown to be key drivers of rural and urban gut microbiota.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Contrasting responses to climate change at Himalayan treelines revealed by population demographics of two dominant species

Abstract Alpine treelines are expected to shift upward due to recent climate change. However, interpretation of changes in montane systems has been problematic because effects of climate change are frequently confounded with those of land use changes. The eastern Himalaya, particularly Langtang National Park, Central Nepal, has been relatively undisturbed for centuries and thus presents an opportunity for studying climate change impacts on alpine treeline uncontaminated by potential confounding factors. We studied two dominant species, Abies spectabilis (AS) and Rhododendron campanulatum (RC) , above and below the treeline on two mountains. We constructed 13 transects, each spanning up to 400 m in elevation, in which we recorded height and state (dead or alive) of all trees, as well as slope, aspect, canopy density, and measures of anthropogenic and animal disturbance. All size classes of RC plants had lower mortality above treeline than below it, and young RC plants (<2 m tall) were at higher density above treeline than below. AS shows little evidence of a position change from the historic treeline, with a sudden extreme drop in density above treeline compared to below. Recruitment, as measured by size–class distribution, was greater above treeline than below for both species but AS is confined to ~25 m above treeline whereas RC is luxuriantly growing up to 200 m above treeline. Synthesis . Evidence suggests that the elevational limits of RC have shifted upward both because (a) young plants above treeline benefited from facilitation of recruitment by surrounding vegetation, allowing upward expansion of recruitment, and (b) temperature amelioration to mature plants increased adult survival. We predict that the current pure stand of RC growing above treeline will be colonized by AS that will, in turn, outshade and eventually relegate RC to be a minor component of the community, as is the current situation below the treeline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Unveiling the mechanism of phase and morphology selections during the devitrification of Al-Sm amorphous ribbon

The complex interplay between energetic and kinetic factors that governs the phase and morphology selections can originate at the earliest stage of crystallization in the amorphous parent phases. Because of the extreme difficulties in capturing the microscopic nucleation process, a detailed picture of how initial disordered structures affect the transformation pathway remains unclear. Here, we report the experimental observation of widely varying phase selection and grain size evolution during the devitrification of a homogeneous melt-spun glassy ribbon. Two different crystalline phases, θ-Al 5 Sm and ε-Al 60 Sm 11 , are found to form in the different regions of the same metallic glass ribbon during the devitrification. The grain size of ε-Al 60 Sm 11 phase shows a strong spatial heterogeneity. Coarse-grained ε-Al 60 Sm 11 phase coupled with the small volume fraction of θ-Al 5 Sm phase is preferably formed close to wheel side of the melt-spun ribbon. Combining experimental characterization and computational simulations, we show that phase selection and microstructure evolution can be traced back to different types and populations of atomic clusters that serve as precursors for the nucleation of different crystalline phases. Inhomogeneous cooling rates cause different structure orders across the glass sample during the quenching process. Our findings provide direct insight into the effect of structural order on the crystallization pathways during the devitrification of metallic glass. It also opens an avenue to study the detailed nucleation process at the atomic level using the metallic glass as a platform and suggests the opportunity of microstructure and property design via controlling the cooling process.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient general method for numerically modeling laser pulse propagation, overlap, and lifetime effects in amplifiers

An efficient numerical time-dependent general method is developed to address incoherent pulse overlap and lifetime effects in laser amplifiers. The alternating propagation-population laser energetics method (APPLE) has been validated against a semi-discrete coupled rate equation numerical method (SDRE) and analytic formalisms in bounding cases. APPLE is based on decoupled rates applied to a time-dependent framework where both space-time-dependent populations and pulse energetics are consistently updated in each time step. A significant advantage of APPLE lies in its conceptual simplicity, ease of implementation, and relatively small computational cost. SDRE tracks the populations through coupled rates and uses the method of lines to discretize the hyperbolic partial differential transport equations allowing for use of ordinary differential equation solvers. With reasonably sized mesh, we report both energetic and power pulse shape relative differences on the order of one percent between the models over a large range of initial conditions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ultrafast valley polarization of graphene nanorings

Here, we study theoretically electron dynamics of a graphene nanoring placed in the field of an ultrashort optical pulse. We describe the graphene nanoring within an effective model with infinite mass boundary conditions. For an optical pulse with a duration of just a few femtoseconds, the electron dynamics is coherent and is described by a time-dependent Schrödinger equation. If the optical pulse is circularly polarized, then two valleys of graphene are populated differently, resulting in a finite valley polarization of the system after the pulse. Such a valley polarization is a unique property of graphene nanoscale systems, while for a graphene monolayer, a circularly polarized pulse does not produce any valley polarization. The valley polarization of the graphene nanoring depends on parameters of the system, such as inner and outer radii. With the system's size increasing, the valley polarization monotonically decreases, converging to its zero value for the infinite graphene monolayer.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantile-dependent expressivity of postprandial lipemia

“Quantile-dependent expressivity” describes an effect of the genotype that depends upon the level of the phenotype (e.g., whether a subject’s triglycerides are high or low relative to its population distribution). Prior analyses suggest that the effect of a genetic risk score (GRS) on fasting plasma triglyceride levels increases with the percentile of the triglyceride distribution. Postprandial lipemia is well suited for testing quantile-dependent expressivity because it exposes each individual’s genotype to substantial increases in their plasma triglyceride concentrations. Ninety-seven published papers were identified that plotted mean triglyceride response vs. time and genotype, which were converted into quantitative data. Separately, for each published graph, standard least-squares regression analysis was used to compare the genotype differences at time t (dependent variable) to average triglyceride concentrations at time t (independent variable) to assess whether the genetic effect size increased in association with higher triglyceride concentrations and whether the phenomenon could explain purported genetic interactions with sex, diet, disease, BMI, and drugs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling the effect of habitat availability and quality on endangered winter-run Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) production in the Sacramento Valley

Reconciliation between water uses and sustaining aquatic species populations requires an effort to identify and quantify essential habitat characteristics for ecosystem health and valuation methods to predict ecosystem response to restoration actions. This process is particularly challenging for anadromous fish species such as California's Sacramento River winter-run Chinook salmon, due to their limited geographic range and diverse life history habitat requirements. Tools, such as life-cycle models, are needed to manage population dynamics and quantify the composite effects of processes across space and time. Nevertheless, complex institutions can hinder result interpretation and communication, and limit model use in decision-making. This paper focuses on the federally endangered and endemic Sacramento River winter-run Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) by developing a Winter-Run Habitat-based Population Model (WRHAP). Additionally, WRHAP is a conceptual, freshwater rearing stage model that includes alternative rearing habitats reported in the literature (e.g., floodplains, off-channel and tributaries), defines rules of habitat use based on instream conditions, and incorporates a juvenile growth module that combines bioenergetics modeling with empirical growth rates. Model outputs reasonably follow observed out-migration patterns and provide a realistic smolt size distribution arriving at the San Francisco Bay. This effort demonstrates the importance of currently “non-critical” habitats (as defined by the Endangered Species Act) for juvenile development, with floodplain habitat contributing to a quarter of out-migrating biomass (despite < 18% availability and <10% of total rearing days), and off-channel growth being one of the most sensitive parameters (explaining ~13% of average juvenile weight variance). The model shows the utility of a simple population model to explore relationships between habitat quality/quantity and juvenile development, and to assist water/environmental management and decision-making processes focused on species recovery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The role of building characteristics, demographics, and urban heat islands in shaping residential energy use

This study assesses the effects of residential building structure, socio-demographics, and ambient temperature conditions of a neighborhood to overall energy expenditures of a household. Using annual utility billing data, existing tax-lot records, temperature data, and U.S. Census demographic data, we ask two research questions: (1) What role do differences in neighborhood ambient heat, structural conditions and behavior play in helping to explain residential energy use? And (2) In what ways do energy expenditures spatially cluster in relation to urban heat islands? Using linear regression, spatial regression, and spatial clustering techniques, we evaluated the role of physical location of these households in relation to ambient temperatures. Significant positive relationships among energy expenditures and building size, average household size, White population, and population over 65 were observed; Significant negative relationships among energy expenditures and building density, renter population and population with a bachelor’s degree or higher were also observed. Negative relationships among morning and afternoon measures of heat, suggest that some areas spend less on energy use as a result of the neighborhood scale thermal environment. Spatial analysis of ambient temperature and energy expenditures show that energy use throughout the city is spatially clustered, with more affluent areas using more energy, regardless of whether heat islands are present. The results help to frame the role that increasing ambient temperatures in cities play in the spatial disparity in energy demand.

Residential Buildings, Energy Expenditure, Socio-d↗
DOE OSTI2021

Size, shade, or shape? The contribution of galaxies of different types to the star formation history of the Universe from SDSS-IV MaNGA

ABSTRACT By fitting stellar populations to the fourth generation of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV) Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey observations of ∼7000 suitably weighted individual galaxies, we reconstruct the star formation history of the Universe, which we find to be in reasonable agreement with previous studies. Dividing the galaxies by their present-day stellar mass, we demonstrate the downsizing phenomenon, whereby the more massive galaxies hosted the most star formation at earlier times. Further dividing the galaxy sample by colour and morphology, we find that a galaxy’s present-day colour tells us more about its historical contribution to the cosmic star formation history than its current morphology. We show that downsizing effects are greatest among galaxies currently in the blue cloud, but that the level of downsizing in galaxies of different morphologies depends quite sensitively on the morphological classification used, due largely to the difficulty in classifying the smaller low-mass galaxies from their ground-based images. Nevertheless, we find agreement that among galaxies with stellar masses $M_{\star } \gt 6\times 10^{9}\, \mathrm{ M}_{\odot }$, downsizing is most significant in spirals. However, there are complicating factors. For example, for more massive galaxies, we find that colour and morphology are predictors of the past star formation over a longer time-scale than in less massive systems. Presumably this effect is reflecting the longer period of evolution required to alter these larger galaxies’ physical properties, but shows that conclusions based on any single property do not tell the full story.

Peterken, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mechanistic Simulations Suggest Riparian Restoration Can Partly Counteract Climate Impacts to Juvenile Salmon

Climate change is reducing summertime water availability and elevating water temperature, placing human consumptive needs in competition with needs of coldwater fishes. Here we worked with natural resource managers in the Snoqualmie River (Washington, USA) to develop riparian management scenarios, and used a process-based modeling system to examine how a threatened population of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytcha) may respond to climate change and whether riparian restoration could reduce climate effects. Linking models of global climate, regional hydrology and water temperature, and fish, we projected that streams would become warmer year-round and drier during summer, further stressing salmon. Climate change accelerated egg emergence, increased juvenile growth and survival, and accelerated outmigration of sub-yearling migrants. Growth was depressed for salmon remaining instream during summer (potential yearling migrants). Riparian restoration counteracted ~10% of summer increases in water temperature, and affected salmon similarly regardless of whether riparian buffers were partially or fully restored, whereas riparian degradation further warmed streams. Riparian restoration fully mitigated climate change effects on potential yearling migrant size, but only minimally affected sub-yearling migrants (assessment metrics changed <2%). Our results will be useful for watershed managers in aligning priorities for fish and humans and our framework can be applied elsewhere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Photodissociation of H 2 on Ag and Au Nanoparticles: Effect of Size and Plasmon versus Interband Transitions on Threshold Intensities for Dissociation

This Article provides new insights concerning the simulation of plasmon-driven chemical reactions using real-time TDDFT based on the tight-binding electronic structure code DFTB+, with applications to the dissociation of H 2 on octahedral silver and gold nanoparticles with 19–489 atoms. A new component of these calculations involves sampling a 300 K canonical ensemble to determine the distribution of possible outcomes of the calculations, and with this approach we are able to determine the threshold for dissociation as a function of laser intensity, wavelength, and nanocluster size. We show that the threshold intensity varies as an inverse power of nanocluster size, which makes it possible to extrapolate the results to sizes that are more typical of experimental studies. The intensities obtained from this extrapolation are around a factor of 100 above powers used in the pulsed experiments. This is a closer comparison of theory and experiment than has been obtained in previous real-time simulations, and the remaining discrepancy can be understood in terms of electromagnetic hot spots that are associated with cluster formation. Here, we also compare the influence of plasmon excitation versus interband excitation on reaction thresholds, revealing that for silver clusters plasmon excitation leads to lower thresholds, but for gold clusters interband excitation is more effective. Our study also includes an analysis of charge transfer to and from the H 2 molecule, and a determination of orbital populations during and after the pulse, showing the correlation between metal excitations and the location of the antibonding level of H 2 .

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Kinetic Simulations of Radiative Magnetic Reconnection in the Coronae of Accreting Black Holes

We perform 2D and 3D particle-in-cell simulations of reconnection in magnetically dominated e ± plasmas subject to strong Compton cooling. Magnetic reconnection under such conditions can operate in accretion disk coronae around black holes, which produce hard X-rays through Comptonization. Our simulations show that most of the plasma in the reconnection layer is kept cold by Compton losses and locked in magnetically dominated plasmoids with a small thermal pressure. Compton drag clears cavities inside plasmoids and also affects their bulk motions. These effects, however, weakly change the reconnection rate and the plasmoid size distribution from those in nonradiative reconnection. This demonstrates that the reconnection dynamics is governed by similar magnetic stresses in both cases and weakly affected by thermal pressure. We examine the energy distribution of particles energized by radiative reconnection and observe two distinct components: (1) A mildly relativistic peak, which results from bulk motions of cooled plasmoids. This component receives most of the dissipated reconnection power and dominates the output X-ray emission. The peak has a quasi-Maxwellian shape with an effective temperature of ~100 keV. Thus, it mimics thermal Comptonization used previously to fit hard-state spectra of accreting black holes. (2) A high-energy tail, which receives ~20% of the dissipated reconnection power. It is populated by particles accelerated impulsively at X-points or "picked up" by fast outflows from X-points. The high-energy particles immediately cool, and their inverse Compton emission explains the MeV spectral tail detected in the hard state of Cyg X-1. Our first-principle simulations support magnetic reconnection as a mechanism powering hard X-ray emission from magnetically dominated regions of accreting black holes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hanford Reach Fall Chinook Salmon Productivity Analysis, Brood Years 1975–2016

Updating the Hanford Reach fall Chinook salmon productivity analysis to include seven additional years of data (BY 2010–2016), including three years of record escapements (>150,000 adults), reaffirmed the highly productive nature of this population and the positive effect of flow fluctuation constraints as implemented at Priest Rapids Dam by the VBSA and HRFCPP. The addition of several years of high escapements also revealed that competition among juveniles (and not spawning habitat limitations) is likely the mechanism driving density dependence in the Hanford Reach. The addition of the high escapement brood years also provided evidence for the high recruitment capacity of the population. As such, the WDFW may consider increasing the maximum escapement goal from 42,000 adults to 49,000 adults, which would be more in-line with SMSY as estimated from this update. Given the in-river protections that are in place as part of the HRFCPP, ocean conditions appear to be the primary factor controlling adult production. Therefore, the success of any additional management actions taken in freshwater are likely to be dependent on survival in the ocean. As such, the most effective management actions may be those that limit juvenile competition and density dependent growth effects in the Hanford Reach. Limiting competition would be expected to increase growth, resulting in larger smolts that would be less likely to suffer size-dependent mortality in the marine environment, even during years of poor ocean conditions. Increasing terminal harvest rates when high escapements are anticipated (from downstream dam counts) is one management option that could help to curtail juvenile competition.

Harnish, Ryan A.↗