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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1986

Experimental forecasts of El Nino

A deterministic numerical model of the coupled evolution of the tropical ocean and atmosphere was used to forecast all El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events from 1970 to 1986. More particularly, the model, originally developed for studying large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropics, successfully predicted the characteristics of the spatial and temporal structure of ENSO observed in the study interval. The model indicated that rainfall moving eastward over the Pacific slackens the surface winds that would otherwise cool the eastern Pacific by drawing up cooler subsurface waters. The oceanic thermocline increases, a poleward flow of westerly flowing warn waters deplets the equatorial warm water reservoir, and sea surface temperatures decline. These ENSO conditions are statistically tractable with the model several months in advance, provided upper ocean layer thermal data are available.

Cane, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Role of Tropical Atlantic SST Variability as a Modulator of El Nino Teleconnections

The present study suggests that the off-equatorial North Atlantic (NATL) SST warming plays a significant role in modulating El Niño teleconnection and its impact on the North Atlantic and European regions. The El Niño events accompanied by NATL SST warming exhibit south-north dipole pattern over the Western Europe to Atlantic, while the ENSO teleconnection pattern without NATL warming exhibits a Rossby wave-like pattern confined over the North Pacific and western Atlantic. Especially, the El Niño events with NATL warming show positive (negative) geopotential-height anomalies over the North Atlantic (Western Europe) which resemble the negative phase of the NAO. Consistently, it is shown using a simple statistical model that NATL SSTA in addition to the tropical Pacific SSTA leads to better prediction on regional climate variation over the North Atlantic and European regions. This role of NATL SST on ENSO teleconnection is also validated and discussed in a long term simulation of coupled global circulation model (CGCM).

Teleconnection↗
NASA NTRS2015

Combined Effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Lake Chad Level Variability Region

In this study, the combined effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Lake Chad (LC) level variability is explored. Our results show that the lake level at the Bol monitoring station has a statistically significant correlation with precipitation (R2 = 0.6, at the 99.5% confidence level). The period between the late 1960s and early 1970s marked a turning point in the response of the regional rainfall to climatic drivers, thereby severely affecting the LC level. Our results also suggest that the negative impact of the cold phase of AMO on Sahel precipitation masks and supersedes the positive effect of La Niña in the early the 1970s. The drop in the size of LC level from 282.5 m in the early 1960s to about 278.1 m in 1983/1984 was the largest to occur within the period of study (1900-2010) and coincides with the combined cold phase of AMO and strong El Niño phase of ENSO. Further analyses show that the current warm phase of AMO and increasing La Niña episodes appear to be playing a major role in the increased precipitation in the Sahel region. The LC level is responding to this increase in precipitation by a gradual recovery, though it is still below the levels of the 1960s. This understanding of the AMO-ENSO-rainfall-LC level association will help in forecasting the impacts of similar combined episodes in the future. These findings also have implications for long-term water resources management in the LC region.

ENSO↗
NASA NTRS2013

Influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the Mesospheric Temperature

Using the middle atmosphere temperature data set observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite experiment between 2002 and 2012, and temperatures simulated by the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model version 3.5 (WACCM3.5) between 1953 and 2005, we studied the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on middle atmosphere temperature during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) wintertime. For the first time, a significant winter temperature response to ENSO in the middle mesosphere has been observed, with an anomalous warming of approximately 1.0 K/MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) in the tropics and an anomalous cooling of approximately 2.0 K/MEI in the NH middle latitudes. The observed temperature responses to ENSO in the mesosphere are opposite to those in the stratosphere, in agreement with previous modeling studies. Temperature responses to ENSO observed by SABER show similar patterns to those simulated by the WACCM3.5 model. Analysis of the WACCM3.5 residual mean meridional circulation response to ENSO reveals a significant downwelling in the tropical mesosphere and upwelling in the NH middle and high latitudes during warm ENSO events, which is mostly driven by anomalous eastward gravity wave forcing in the NH mesosphere.

Li, Tao↗
NASA NTRS2007

TRMM-TMI Satellite Observed Soil Moisture and Vegetation Density (1998-2005) Show Strong Connection with El Nino in Eastern Australia

Spatiotemporal patterns in soil moisture and vegetation water content across mainland Australia were investigated from 1998 through 2005, using TRMMITMI passive microwave observations. The Empirical Orthogonal Function technique was used to extract dominant spatial and temporal patterns in retrieved estimates of moisture content for the top 1-cm of soil (theta) and vegetation moisture content (via optical depth tau). The dominant temporal theta and tau patterns were strongly correlated to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in spring (3 = 0.90), and to a progressively lesser extent autumn, summer and winter. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index also explained part of the variation in spring 8 and z. Cluster analysis suggested that the regions most affected by ENS0 are mainly located in eastern Australia. The results suggest that the drought conditions experienced in eastern Australia since 2000 an clearly expressed in these satellite observations have a strong connection with ENSO patterns.

Liu, Yi↗
NASA NTRS1987

Nimbus 7 earth radiation budget wide field of view climate data set improvement. II - Deconvolution of earth radiation budget products and consideration of 1982-1983 El Nino event

A deconvolution technique is employed that permits recovery of daily averaged earth radiation budget (ERB) parameters at the top of the atmosphere from a set of the Nimbus 7 ERB wide field of view (WFOV) measurements. Improvements in both the spatial resolution of the resultant fields and in the fidelity of the time averages is obtained. The algorithm is evaluated on a set of months during the period 1980-1983. The albedo, outgoing long-wave radiation, and net radiation parameters are analyzed. The amplitude and phase of the quasi-stationary patterns that appear in the spatially deconvolved fields describe the radiation budget components for 'normal' as well as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode years. They delineate the seasonal development of large-scale features inherent in the earth's radiation budget as well as the natural variability of interannual differences. These features are underscored by the powerful emergence of the 1982-1983 ENSO event in the fields displayed. The conclusion is that with this type of resolution enhancement, WFOV radiometers provide a useful tool for the observation of the contemporary climate and its variability.

Ardanuy, Phillip E.↗
NASA NTRS1984

An El Nino signal in atmospheric angular momentum and earth rotation

Anomalously high values of atmospheric angular momentum and length of day were observed in late January 1983. This signal in the time series of these two coupled quantities appears to have been a consequence of the equatorial Pacific Ocean warming event of 1982-1983.

Rosen, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Numerical simulation of the atmospheric response ito the time-varying El Nino SST anomalies during May 1982 through October 1983

An attempt is made to simulate the atmospheric circulation anomalies corresponding to the observed SST anomalies in the Pacific Ocean for the 18-month period of May 1982 through October 1983. A GCM is first integrated for 25 months with monthly climatological boundary conditions of SST, soil moisture, sea, ice, and albedo. Starting from day 165 of this 'control' integration, which corresponds to May 1, the 18-month integration is carried out with the same boundary conditions except that the observed monthly SST anomalies for May 1982-October 1983 are added to the climatological values in the Pacific from 40 S to 60 N. The evolution of the model-simulated circulation and rainfall anomalies are compared to actual observations for the same period, and remarkable agreement is found.

Fennessy, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The cloud and surface contributions to the net radiation balance during the 1982-83 El Nino

This paper investigates the interannual fluctuations in cloud and surface forcing associated with the unusually intense ENSO event of 1982-1983. The analysis was performed over a six-year period for which global radiation budget and cloudiness measurements from the Nimbus-7 experiments were available simultaneously. It is shown that major anomalies in cloudiness, due mostly to shifts of a major convective center in the Pacific Ocean associated with inactive or active ENSO phase, are most notable over the equatorial central Pacific, the maritime continent over the western Pacific, the South Pacific convergence zone, and the Indian Ocean.

Sohn, Byung-Ju↗
NASA NTRS1992

Interannual variability of solar irradiance over the Amazon Basin including the 1982-83 El Nino Year

Surface solar irradiance was derived over the extended Amazon Basin using AVHRR observations from polar-orbiting satellites during four July months (1983-1986). Observations from the geostationary satellite GOES for July 1983 were also used to assess diurnal effects. Both satellite datasets are part of the Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) B3 product. It was demonstrated that it is now possible to derive long-term surface solar irradiance, which can be useful in climate studies, and that the accuracy of the derived fields is sufficient to detect interannual differences that can exceed at times 70 W/sq m.

Pinker, Rachel T.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Reconstruction of the 1997/1998 El Nino from TOPEX/POSEIDON and TOGA/TAO Data Using a Massively Parallel Pacific-Ocean Model and Ensemble Kalman Filter

Two massively parallel data assimilation systems in which the model forecast-error covariances are estimated from the distribution of an ensemble of model integrations are applied to the assimilation of 97-98 TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry and TOGA/TAO temperature data into a Pacific basin version the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP)ls quasi-isopycnal ocean general circulation model. in the first system, ensemble of model runs forced by an ensemble of atmospheric model simulations is used to calculate asymptotic error statistics. The data assimilation then occurs in the reduced phase space spanned by the corresponding leading empirical orthogonal functions. The second system is an ensemble Kalman filter in which new error statistics are computed during each assimilation cycle from the time-dependent ensemble distribution. The data assimilation experiments are conducted on NSIPP's 512-processor CRAY T3E. The two data assimilation systems are validated by withholding part of the data and quantifying the extent to which the withheld information can be inferred from the assimilation of the remaining data. The pros and cons of each system are discussed.

Keppenne, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Recent Warming Event in the Pacific May be an El Nino

A recent anomalous warming event in the tropical Pacific consist of a series of intraseasonal episodes, observations from four spaceborne sensors and simulation by an ocean general circulation model show. Four distinct groups of equatorial westerly wind anomalies near the date line were observed by scatterometer. Anomalous integrated water vapor was observed by a microwave radiometer. To study the warming event, the anomalous sea level and sea surface temperature were simulated with an ocean general circulation model forced by realistic winds.

Liu, W. Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2000

Application of a Reduced Order Kalman Filter to Initialize a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model: Impact on the Prediction of El Nino

A reduced order Kalman Filter, based on a simplification of the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter equations, is used to assimilate observed fields of the surface wind stress, sea surface temperature and sea level into the nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The SEEK filter projects the Kalman Filter equations onto a subspace defined by the eigenvalue decomposition of the error forecast matrix, allowing its application to high dimensional systems. The Zebiak and Cane model couples a linear reduced gravity ocean model with a single vertical mode atmospheric model of Zebiak. The compatibility between the simplified physics of the model and each observed variable is studied separately and together. The results show the ability of the model to represent the simultaneous value of the wind stress, SST and sea level, when the fields are limited to the latitude band 10 deg S - 10 deg N. In this first application of the Kalman Filter to a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction model, the sea level fields are assimilated in terms of the Kelvin and Rossby modes of the thermocline depth anomaly. An estimation of the error of these modes is derived from the projection of an estimation of the sea level error over such modes. This method gives a value of 12 for the error of the Kelvin amplitude, and 6 m of error for the Rossby component of the thermocline depth. The ability of the method to reconstruct the state of the equatorial Pacific and predict its time evolution is demonstrated. The method is shown to be quite robust for predictions I up to six months, and able to predict the onset of the 1997 warm event fifteen months before its occurrence.

Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim↗
NASA NTRS2000

Application of a Reduced Order Kalman Filter to Initialize a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model: Impact on the Prediction of El Nino

A reduced order Kalman Filter, based on a simplification of the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter equations, is used to assimilate observed fields of the surface wind stress, sea surface temperature and sea level into the nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model of Zebiak and Cane. The SEEK filter projects the Kalman Filter equations onto a subspace defined by the eigenvalue decomposition of the error forecast matrix, allowing its application to high dimensional systems. The Zebiak and Cane model couples a linear reduced gravity ocean model with a single vertical mode atmospheric model of Zebiak. The compatibility between the simplified physics of the model and each observed variable is studied separately and together. The results show the ability of the model to represent the simultaneous value of the wind stress, SST and sea level, when the fields are limited to the latitude band 10 deg S - 10 deg N In this first application of the Kalman Filter to a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction model, the sea level fields are assimilated in terms of the Kelvin and Rossby modes of the thermocline depth anomaly. An estimation of the error of these modes is derived from the projection of an estimation of the sea level error over such modes. This method gives a value of 12 for the error of the Kelvin amplitude, and 6 m of error for the Rossby component of the thermocline depth. The ability of the method to reconstruct the state of the equatorial Pacific and predict its time evolution is demonstrated. The method is shown to be quite robust for predictions up to six months, and able to predict the onset of the 1997 warm event fifteen months before its occurrence.

Ballabrera-Poy, J.↗