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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A population data-driven workflow for COVID-19 modeling and learning

CityCOVID is a detailed agent-based model that represents the behaviors and social interactions of 2.7 million residents of Chicago as they move between and colocate in 1.2 million distinct places, including households, schools, workplaces, and hospitals, as determined by individual hourly activity schedules and dynamic behaviors such as isolating because of symptom onset. Disease progression dynamics incorporated within each agent track transitions between possible COVID-19 disease states, based on heterogeneous agent attributes, exposure through colocation, and effects of protective behaviors of individuals on viral transmissibility. Throughout the COVID-19 epidemic, CityCOVID model outputs have been provided to city, county, and state stakeholders in response to evolving decision-making priorities, while incorporating emerging information on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology. Here we demonstrate our efforts in integrating our high-performance epidemiological simulation model with large-scale machine learning to develop a generalizable, flexible, and performant analytical platform for planning and crisis response.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A systematic analysis and data mining of opioid-related adverse events submitted to the FAERS database

The opioid epidemic has become a serious national crisis in the United States. An indepth systematic analysis of opioid-related adverse events (AEs) can clarify the risks presented by opioid exposure, as well as the individual risk profiles of specific opioid drugs and the potential relationships among the opioids. In this study, 92 opioids were identified from the list of all Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved drugs, annotated by RxNorm and were classified into 13 opioid groups: buprenorphine, codeine, dihydrocodeine, fentanyl, hydrocodone, hydromorphone, meperidine, methadone, morphine, oxycodone, oxymorphone, tapentadol, and tramadol. A total of 14,970,399 AE reports were retrieved and downloaded from the FDA Adverse Events Reporting System (FAERS) from 2004, Quarter 1 to 2020, Quarter 3. After data processing, Empirical Bayes Geometric Mean (EBGM) was then applied which identified 3317 pairs of potential risk signals within the 13 opioid groups. Based on these potential safety signals, a comparative analysis was pursued to provide a global overview of opioid-related AEs for all 13 groups of FDA-approved prescription opioids. The top 10 most reported AEs for each opioid class were then presented. Both network analysis and hierarchical clustering analysis were conducted to further explore the relationship between opioids. Results from the network analysis revealed a close association among fentanyl, oxycodone, hydrocodone, and hydromorphone, which shared more than 22 AEs. In addition, much less commonly reported AEs were shared among dihydrocodeine, meperidine, oxymorphone, and tapentadol. On the contrary, the hierarchical clustering analysis further categorized the 13 opioid classes into two groups by comparing the full profiles of presence/absence of AEs. The results of network analysis and hierarchical clustering analysis were not only consistent and cross-validated each other but also provided a better and deeper understanding of the associations and relationships between the 13 opioid groups with respect to their adverse effect profiles.

Research & Experimental Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2020

Google Health Trends performance reflecting dengue incidence for the Brazilian states

Abstract Background Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne infection transmitted by Aedes aegypti and mainly found in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. Since its re-introduction in 1986, Brazil has become a hotspot for dengue and has experienced yearly epidemics. As a notifiable infectious disease, Brazil uses a passive epidemiological surveillance system to collect and report cases; however, dengue burden is underestimated. Thus, Internet data streams may complement surveillance activities by providing real-time information in the face of reporting lags. Methods We analyzed 19 terms related to dengue using Google Health Trends (GHT), a free-Internet data-source, and compared it with weekly dengue incidence between 2011 to 2016. We correlated GHT data with dengue incidence at the national and state-level for Brazil while using the adjusted R squared statistic as primary outcome measure (0/1). We used survey data on Internet access and variables from the official census of 2010 to identify where GHT could be useful in tracking dengue dynamics. Finally, we used a standardized volatility index on dengue incidence and developed models with different variables with the same objective. Results From the 19 terms explored with GHT, only seven were able to consistently track dengue. From the 27 states, only 12 reported an adjusted R squared higher than 0.8; these states were distributed mainly in the Northeast, Southeast, and South of Brazil. The usefulness of GHT was explained by the logarithm of the number of Internet users in the last 3 months, the total population per state, and the standardized volatility index. Conclusions The potential contribution of GHT in complementing traditional established surveillance strategies should be analyzed in the context of geographical resolutions smaller than countries. For Brazil, GHT implementation should be analyzed in a case-by-case basis. State variables including total population, Internet usage in the last 3 months, and the standardized volatility index could serve as indicators determining when GHT could complement dengue state level surveillance in other countries.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Biomarkers, Proteoforms, and Mass Spectrometry–Based Assays for Diabetes Clinical Research

Abstract The prevalence of diabetes, particularly type 2 diabetes, has reached epidemic proportions globally. The number of patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) is also increasing rapidly. Despite advancements in understanding the pathogenesis of diabetes, the lack of circulating pancreatic biomarkers and reliable clinical-grade assays remains a major gap in diabetes research, often hindering the ability to adequately assess disease progression and therapeutic responses. This mini-review discusses emerging pancreatic biomarkers, with an emphasis on T1D, the limitations of current immunoassays, and the expanding role of mass spectrometry–based assays. Highlights include the recent work within the NIDDK-funded “Targeted Mass Spectrometry Assays for Diabetes and Obesity Research (TaMADOR)” consortium, which aims to develop robust, quantitative, and transferable assays for translational research. The review also emphasizes the importance of proteoform-specific assays for monitoring pancreatic function, including prohormone processing during disease progression or in responses to therapy.

Endocrinology & Metabolism↗
DOE OSTI2022

Keeping Pace with Field Detection Challenges for Synthetic Opioids

With the opioid epidemic at an all-time high, new synthetic opioids continue to emerge. To assist first responders in identifying new chemical variants, PNNL is working to expand spectral libraries of field-portable chemical detection instruments.

Bradley, Ashley M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Systems biology predicts that fibrosis in tuberculous granulomas may arise through macrophage-to-myofibroblast transformation

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection causes tuberculosis (TB), a disease characterized by development of granulomas. Granulomas consist of activated immune cells that cluster together to limit bacterial growth and restrict dissemination. Control of the TB epidemic has been limited by lengthy drug regimens, antibiotic resistance, and lack of a robustly efficacious vaccine. Fibrosis commonly occurs during treatment and is associated with both positive and negative disease outcomes in TB but little is known about the processes that initiate fibrosis in granulomas. Human and nonhuman primate granulomas undergoing fibrosis can have spindle-shaped macrophages with fibroblast-like morphologies suggesting a relationship between macrophages, fibroblasts, and granuloma fibrosis. This relationship has been difficult to investigate because of the limited availability of human pathology samples, the time scale involved in human TB, and overlap between fibroblast and myeloid cell markers in tissues. To better understand the origins of fibrosis in TB, we used a computational model of TB granuloma biology to identify factors that drive fibrosis over the course of local disease progression. We validated the model with granulomas from nonhuman primates to delineate myeloid cells and lung-resident fibroblasts. Our results suggest that peripheral granuloma fibrosis, which is commonly observed, can arise through macrophage-to-myofibroblast transformation (MMT). Further, we hypothesize that MMT is induced in M1 macrophages through a sequential combination of inflammatory and anti-inflammatory signaling in granuloma macrophages. We predict that MMT may be a mechanism underlying granuloma-associated fibrosis and warrants further investigation into myeloid cells as drivers of fibrotic disease.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of early nonpharmaceutical interventions aimed at slowing transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Navajo Nation and surrounding states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah)

During an early period of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Navajo Nation, much like New York City, experienced a relatively high rate of disease transmission. Yet, between January and October 2020, it experienced only a single period of growth in new COVID-19 cases, which ended when cases peaked in May 2020. The daily number of new cases slowly decayed in the summer of 2020 until late September 2020. In contrast, the surrounding states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah all experienced at least two periods of growth in the same time frame, with second surges beginning in late May to early June. Here, we investigated these differences in disease transmission dynamics with the objective of quantifying the contributions of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (e.g., behaviors that limit disease transmission). We considered a compartmental model accounting for distinct periods of NPIs to analyze the epidemic in each of the five regions. We used Bayesian inference to estimate region-specific model parameters from regional surveillance data (daily reports of new COVID-19 cases) and to quantify uncertainty in parameter estimates and model predictions. Our results suggest that NPIs in the Navajo Nation were sustained over the period of interest, whereas in the surrounding states, NPIs were relaxed, which allowed for subsequent surges in cases. Our region-specific model parameterizations allow us to quantify the impacts of NPIs on disease incidence in the regions of interest.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Molecular basis of P[II] major human rotavirus VP8* domain recognition of histo-blood group antigens

Initial cell attachment of rotavirus (RV) to specific cell surface glycan receptors, which is the essential first step in RV infection, is mediated by the VP8* domain of the spike protein VP4. Recently, human histo-blood group antigens (HBGAs) have been identified as receptors or attachment factors for human RV strains. RV strains in the P[4] and P[8] genotypes of the P[II] genogroup share common recognition of the Lewis b (Le b ) and H type 1 antigens, however, the molecular basis of receptor recognition by the major human P[8] RVs remains unknown due to lack of experimental structural information. Here, we used nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy-based titration experiments and NMR-derived high ambiguity driven docking (HADDOCK) methods to elucidate the molecular basis for P[8] VP8* recognition of the Leb (LNDFH I) and type 1 HBGAs. We also used X-ray crystallography to determine the molecular details underlying P[6] recognition of H type 1 HBGAs. Unlike P[6]/P[19] VP8*s that recognize H type 1 HBGAs in a binding surface composed of an α-helix and a β-sheet, referred as the “βα binding site”, the P[8] and P[4] VP8*s bind Le b HBGAs in a previously undescribed pocket formed by the edges of two β-sheets, referred to as the “ββ binding site”. Importantly, the P[8] and P[4] VP8*s retain binding capability to non-Le b type 1 HBGAs using the βα binding site. The presence of two distinct binding sites for Le b and non-Le b HBGA glycans in the P[8] and P[4] VP8* domains suggests host-pathogen co-evolution under structural and functional adaptation of RV pathogens to host glycan polymorphisms. Assessment and understanding of the precise impact of this co-evolutionary process in determining RV host ranges and cross-species RV transmission should facilitate improved RV vaccine development and prediction of future RV strain emergence and epidemics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global Characteristics of Observable Foreshocks for Large Earthquakes

Abstract Foreshocks are the only currently widely identified precursory seismic behavior, yet their utility and even identifiability are problematic, in part because of extreme variation in behavior. Here, we establish some global trends that help identify the expected frequency of foreshocks as well the type of earthquake most prone to foreshocks. We establish these tendencies using the global earthquake catalog of the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center with a completeness level of magnitude 5 and mainshocks with Mw≥7.0. Foreshocks are identified using three clustering algorithms to address the challenge of distinguishing foreshocks from background activity. The methods give a range of 15%–43% of large mainshocks having at least one foreshock but a narrower range of 13%–26% having at least one foreshock with magnitude within two units of the mainshock magnitude. These observed global foreshock rates are similar to regional values for a completeness level of magnitude 3 using the same detection conditions. The foreshock sequences have distinctive characteristics with the global composite population b-values being lower for foreshocks than for aftershocks, an attribute that is also manifested in synthetic catalogs computed by epidemic-type aftershock sequences, which intrinsically involves only cascading processes. Focal mechanism similarity of foreshocks relative to mainshocks is more pronounced than for aftershocks. Despite these distinguishing characteristics of foreshock sequences, the conditions that promote high foreshock productivity are similar to those that promote high aftershock productivity. For instance, a modestly higher percentage of interplate mainshocks have foreshocks than intraplate mainshocks, and reverse faulting events slightly more commonly have foreshocks than normal or strike-slip-faulting mainshocks. The western circum-Pacific is prone to having slightly more foreshock activity than the eastern circum-Pacific.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Opiate Sensitivity in Fruit Flies

Substance use disorder is a debilitating clinical condition in which behavioral dependence results from biological, environmental, genetic, and psychosocial factors. An epidemic surrounding the use and abuse of opioids is ravaging the world. While considerable efforts have explored the social drivers of addiction, a deeper understanding of biological causes and genetic vulnerabilities, preventative interventions, and effective treatments, have all proven elusive. This perspective article aims to remind readers that addictive natural compounds such as cocaine, nicotine, cathinone, or morphine, evolved as defensive metabolites to deter insect herbivory. The molecular mechanisms underlying motivational seeking and learning/reward show remarkable conservation since their early emergence in bilateral metazoans. An extended coevolutionary arms race subsequently weaponized these compounds into disruptors of learning, motivation, and incentivized attention. When plant chemical defenses attack insect physiology, humans are rendered susceptible due to strong conservation in the underlying molecular machinery. This perspective addresses the paradox that opiates were shaped to target insect neuropharmacology, even though this taxon appears to lack the recognized opioid receptor clade of mammals. We argue that the link is to be found in the allatostatin receptor, a basal ortholog of opioid receptors. Moreover, preliminary evidence indicates that morphine reduces Drosophila feeding and locomotion, concordant with a purported role as a defensive compound reducing herbivory. An implementation via allatostatin-mediated mechanisms is likely. This research argues for a broader heuristic perspective of substance abuse and a recognition of the evolutionary constraints that have likely shaped the biological drivers of opioid sensitivity and of its behavioral targets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Alternative Materials for Mask Construction by the Public

N95 respirators became scarce to the general public in mid-to-late March of 2020 due to the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. By mid-April of 2020, most states in the United States were requiring face coverings to be worn while in public enclosed places and in busy outdoor areas where groups of people were in close proximity. Many resorted to cloth masks, homemade masks, procedure masks obtained through online purchases, and other ad-hoc means. Thus, there was and still is a need to determine the aerosol filtration efficacy of commonly available materials that can be used for homemade mask construction. This study focused on non- woven polymeric fabrics that are readily available for homemade mask construction. The conclusion of this study is that non-woven materials that carry a high electric charge or those that can easily acquire charge had the highest aerosol filtration efficiency per unit of pressure drop. Future work should examine a wider variety of these materials and determine the maximum pressure drop that a nominal homemade mask can withstand before a significant portion of airflow is diverted around the mask. More broadly, a better understanding of the charge state on non-woven materials and impact of that charge state on filtration efficiency is needed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bradbury Science Museum NOTEs Program Docs: Building Immunity: How fighting HIV and other viruses helps us understand our immune system

Building Immunity is a unique opportunity to journey through the history and development of your immune system. Our interactive touch table invites each user to choose their own, unique experience as they learn about how fighting HIV and other viruses helps researchers understand how our own immune systems work to keep us healthy. From the Bradbury Science Museum of Los Alamos National Laboratory, the exhibit presents remarkable insight into one of the most ancient and well-traveled organisms on the planet, viruses. Viral epidemics like the H1N1 flu, which killed over 40 million people in 1918, devastate communities around the world and destabilize regions around the globe. Additionally, their ability to mutate quickly creates a “Red Queen” effect, or loop of treated and then treatment-resistant strains of deadly diseases. Increased understanding of the relationships between viruses and our own immune system is crucial to the development of improved treatments and novel vaccines and this research is happening right now at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Compliance in an Epidemiological Model: Constructs from Psychological Theory and Research

Vaccination and the alternative behavior, vaccine refusal, are a classic example of manifesting behaviors driven by social norms and norm violations. Establishing how norms emerge, and under what circumstances people choose to violate them are key issues to understand in modeling epidemics. Interactions between individuals can lead to large-scale patterning of behavior (emergent phenomena). As norm violations are revealed through human behavior, drawing on psychological theory and principles to predict those violations is a viable approach for more human-constrained epidemiological models. As an example of the implications at scale, vaccine refusal is correlated with the spread of mis/disinformation about vaccine side-effects. Considering the complexities of network dynamics, the downstream effects means that if even a small group within a population are persuaded against vaccination, there is a reservoir from which disease and disease outbreaks can propagate. This work will attempt to identify those psychological indicators, to define circumstances that predict health behaviors, and identify potentially modifiable antecedents of health behavior, and factors that influence changes toward health protective behaviors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Disease Precognition [Slides]

How can we reduce the health and economic impacts future epidemics and pandemics? Global Real-Time Disease Forecasting is not just for weather anymore! Disease precognition technology is discussed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Agent-based Disease Surveillance and Transmission Model

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has driven a need for models that can predict transmission among populations and test the effectiveness of proposed interventions to control it such as testing, quarantining, vaccinations, and nonpharmaceutical interventions. Some questions of interest include:1. How rapidly will the virus spread if no action is taken? 2. How frequently should people be tested and quarantined if necessary? 3. Should unvaccinated persons be tested more frequently than the vaccinated? 4. If test results are delayed, how will that affect the spread? 5. How do test false negative rates affect the overall efficacy of testing programs? 6. How do constraints on testing resources impact the overall efficacy of testing programs? 7. How does the patient’s failure to recognize COVID symptoms and quarantine affect the spread? 8. What level of vaccination coverage is needed to suppress the epidemic? 9. What is the risk of a large outbreak (probability exceeding x infections)? 10. What is the cost effectiveness of interventions (dollars per avoided infection)? This report describes the structure of a discrete event simulation model that provides actionable information to address these questions. Parameter inputs and results of analyses have been reported in briefings provided to LLNL management and are not discussed here.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

NW-BRaVE T3 Hydroplane Project Close: Project Close-out for T3 Hydroplane Analysis

Thrust 3 of the Northwest Biopreparedness Research in a Virtual Environment was an expansive project including method development, sample collection and sequence analysis. The sampling occurred over a multi-year period to generate metagenomic datasets that inform cyanophage-picocyanobacterial interactions in the Salish Sea across a moderate timeframe and geographical range. Part of the thrust’s aim was to validate how much experimental structural and multiomics work in a model organism (Prochlorococcus Marinus, str. MED4) from thrusts 1 and 2 would carry over into a broader range of related organisms in the natural world, to address a fundamental question in scientific preparation for epidemics: whether and how much experimental information from known and experimentally tractable species can translate to actionable biological information in unknown species. In other words, thrust 3 aimed to find out whether the model organism experiments matter in terms of how organisms interact. This report updates work described in Johnson and Pollock 2025 (1).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R 0 ) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). Here, we further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗