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At least 145 records · Page 8

Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the large-scale circulation in South America

The influence of each phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the largescale circulation in South America is investigated using rainfall observations, fully-coupled, large-ensemble, historical simulations (LENS), and forced experiments using the coupled model’s atmospheric component. IOD events often occur when El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the largest source of interannual variability of precipitation in South America, is active. To distinguish from effects of ENSO, only cases during neutral ENSO conditions are analyzed in LENS and observations. During the positive IOD polarity, a perturbation in the localWalker circulation leads to increased convection over equatorial South America, resulting in wet anomalies in the Amazon basin. This signal is the opposite of what is expected during El Niño events. Tropical convection anomalies in the Indian Ocean also force an extratropical Rossby wave train that reaches subtropical South America. During positive IOD, the moisture flux from the Amazon to central and southeastern Brazil weakens, resulting in a drying of the area associated with the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Meanwhile, the South Atlantic Subtropical High strengthens, contributing to a drying in southeastern Brazil. During negative IOD, the induced wave train from the Indian Ocean leads to increased moisture transport to the La Plata basin, leading to wet anomalies in the region.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Seasonally and Regionally Dependent Shifts of the Atmospheric Westerly Jets under Global Warming

A distinct feature of the atmospheric circulation response to increasing greenhouse gas forcing is the poleward shift of the zonal-mean westerly jet. The dynamical mechanisms of the zonal-mean poleward jet shift have been extensively studied in literature. At seasonal/regional scales, however, the westerly jets can shift equatorward, such as in the early-summer Asia–Pacific region, the late-winter America–Atlantic region, and the winter/spring east Pacific. These equatorward jet shifts imply climate impacts distinct from those of the poleward shifts, yet their causes are not well understood. In this work, based on a hierarchy of coupled, prescribed-SST, and aquaplanet simulations, we attribute the seasonal/regional equatorward jet shifts to the enhanced tropical upper-level warming (ETUW), which arises from both the tropical moist adiabat and the enhanced equatorial surface warming. By steepening the meridional temperature gradient in the subtropical upper-to-middle level and assisted by positive eddy feedback, the ETUW increases the zonal wind equatorward of the climatological jet. When the regional/seasonal meridional temperature gradients (or equivalently the westerly jets) are weak and peak close to the tropics, the ETUW effect overcomes the poleward jet-shift mechanisms and leads to the equatorward jet shifts. This climatological-state dependency is consistently seen in the decomposed jet responses to uniform warming and surface warming pattern, and further demonstrated through idealized aquaplanet experiments with designed climatological states. For uniform warming, the ETUW arising from moist adiabat makes the general poleward jet shifts insignificant in the aforementioned favorable regions/seasons. For warming pattern, the ETUW from enhanced equatorial warming drives substantial equatorward jet shifts in these favorable seasons/regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Calculation of wind-driven surface currents in the North Atlantic Ocean

Calculations to simulate the wind driven near surface currents of the North Atlantic Ocean are described. The primitive equations were integrated on a finite difference grid with a horizontal resolution of 2.5 deg in longitude and latitude. The model ocean was homogeneous with a uniform depth of 100 m and with five levels in the vertical direction. A form of the rigid-lid approximation was applied. Generally, the computed surface current patterns agreed with observed currents. The development of a subsurface equatorial countercurrent was observed.

Rees, T. H.↗

Electric Field and Plasma Density Observations of Irregularities and Plasma Instabilities in the Low Latitude Ionosphere Gathered by the C/NOFS Satellite

The Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) on the C/NOFS equatorial satellite provides a unique data set which includes detailed measurements of irregularities associated with the equatorial ionosphere and in particular with spread-F depletions. We present vector AC electric field observations gathered on C/NOFS that address a variety of key questions regarding how plasma irregularities, from meter to kilometer scales, are created and evolve. The talk focuses on occasions where the ionosphere F-peak has been elevated above the C/NOFS satellite perigee of 400 km as solar activity has increased. In particular, during the equinox periods of 2011, the satellite consistently journeyed below the F-peak whenever the orbit was in the region of the South Atlantic anomaly after sunset. During these passes, data from the electric field and plasma density probes on the satellite have revealed two types of instabilities which had not previously been observed in the C/NOFS data set: The first is evidence for 400-500km-scale bottomside "undulations" that appear in the density and electric field data. In one case, these large scale waves are associated with a strong shear in the zonal E x B flow, as evidenced by variations in the meridional (outward) electric fields observed above and below the F-peak. These undulations are devoid of smaller scale structures in the early evening, yet appear at later local times along the same orbit associated with fully-developed spread-F with smaller scale structures. This suggests that they may be precursor waves for spread-F, driven by a collisional shear instability, following ideas advanced previously by researchers using data from the Jicamarca radar. A second result is the appearance of km-scale irregularities that are a common feature in the electric field and plasma density data that also appear when the satellite is near or below the F-peak at night. The vector electric field instrument on C/NOFS clearly shows that the electric field component of these waves is strongest in the zonal direction. These waves are strongly correlated with simultaneous observations of plasma density oscillations and appear both with, and without, evidence of larger-scale spread-F depletions. These km-scale, quasi-coherent waves strongly resemble the bottomside, sinusoidal irregularities reported in the Atmosphere Explorer satellite data set by Valladares et al. and are believed to cause scintillations of VHF radiowaves. We interpret these new observations in terms of fundamental plasma instabilities associated with the unstable, nighttime equatorial ionosphere.

Pfaff, Robert F.↗

ERS-1 scatterometer estimates of annual variations of Atlantic ITCZ and Pacific NECC

A 10 m height wind vector data set, named CMODFD, from ERS-1 Active Microwave Instrument (AMI) measurements, was compared with moored buoy wind observations. The CMODFD wind vectors compared favorably with moored buoy wind observations at about 60 sites. Satisfactory results were obtained from intercomparisons between CMODFD and moored buoy estimates of horizontal wind divergence and wind stress curl. The CMODFD positions of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) at 28 deg west were nearly equal to those determined from satellite images of clouds. The CMODFD data were employed to compute the Ekman vertical velocity in the region of the Pacific North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC), and a correlative relation was found between the annual cycles and longitudinal variations of the NECC and Ekman vertical motion.

Halpern, D.↗

"Cloud Slicing" : A New Technique to Derive Tropospheric Ozone Profile Information from Satellite Measurements

A new technique denoted cloud slicing has been developed for estimating tropospheric ozone profile information. All previous methods using satellite data were only capable of estimating the total column of ozone in the troposphere. Cloud slicing takes advantage of the opaque property of water vapor clouds to ultraviolet wavelength radiation. Measurements of above-cloud column ozone from the Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) instrument are combined together with Nimbus 7 temperature humidity and infrared radiometer (THIR) cloud-top pressure data to derive ozone column amounts in the upper troposphere. In this study tropical TOMS and THIR data for the period 1979-1984 are analyzed. By combining total tropospheric column ozone (denoted TCO) measurements from the convective cloud differential (CCD) method with 100-400 hPa upper tropospheric column ozone amounts from cloud slicing, it is possible to estimate 400-1000 hPa lower tropospheric column ozone and evaluate its spatial and temporal variability. Results for both the upper and lower tropical troposphere show a year-round zonal wavenumber 1 pattern in column ozone with largest amounts in the Atlantic region (up to approx. 15 DU in the 100-400 hPa pressure band and approx. 25-30 DU in the 400-1000 hPa pressure band). Upper tropospheric ozone derived from cloud slicing shows maximum column amounts in the Atlantic region in the June-August and September-November seasons which is similar to the seasonal variability of CCD derived TCO in the region. For the lower troposphere, largest column amounts occur in the September-November season over Brazil in South America and also southern Africa. Localized increases in the tropics in lower tropospheric ozone are found over the northern region of South America around August and off the west coast of equatorial Africa in the March-May season. Time series analysis for several regions in South America and Africa show an anomalous increase in ozone in the lower troposphere around the month of March which is not observed in the upper troposphere. The eastern Pacific indicates weak seasonal variability of upper, lower, and total tropospheric ozone compared to the western Pacific which shows largest TCO amounts in both hemispheres around spring months. Ozone variability in the western Pacific is expected to have greater variability caused by strong convection, pollution and biomass burning, land/sea contrast and monsoon developments.

Ziemke, J. R.↗

Cloud Slicing: A New Technique to Derive Upper Tropospheric Ozone from Satellite Measurements

A new technique denoted cloud slicing has been developed for measuring upper tropospheric ozone. Cloud slicing takes advantage of the opaque property of water vapor clouds to ultraviolet wavelength radiation. Measurements of above-cloud column ozone from the Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) instrument are combined together with Nimbus 7 temperature humidity and infrared radiometer (THIR) cloud-top pressure data to derive ozone column amounts in the upper troposphere. In this study tropical TOMS and THIR data for the period 1979-1984 are analyzed. By combining total tropospheric column ozone (denoted TCO) measurements from the convective cloud differential (CCD) method with 100-400 hPa upper tropospheric column ozone amounts from cloud slicing, it is possible to estimate 400-1000 hPa lower tropospheric column ozone and evaluate its spatial and temporal variability. Results for both the upper and lower tropical troposphere show a year-round zonal wave number 1 pattern in column ozone with largest amounts in the Atlantic region (up to 15 DU in the 100-400 hPa pressure band and around 25-30 DU in the 400-1000 hPa pressure band). Upper tropospheric ozone derived from cloud slicing shows maximum column amounts in the Atlantic region in the June-August and September-November seasons which is similar to the seasonal variability of CCD derived TCO in the region. For the lower troposphere, largest column amounts occur in the September-November season over Brazil in South America and also southern Africa. Localized increases in the tropics in lower tropospheric ozone are found over the northern region of South America around August and off the west coast of equatorial Africa in the March-May season. Time series analysis for several regions in South America and Africa show an anomalous increase in ozone in the lower troposphere around the month of March which is not observed in the upper troposphere. The eastern Pacific indicates weak seasonal variability of upper, lower, and total tropospheric ozone compared to the western Pacific which shows largest TCO amounts in both hemispheres around spring months. Ozone variability in the western Pacific is expected to have greater variability caused by strong convection, pollution and biomass burning, land/sea contrast and monsoon developments.

Ziemke, J. R.↗

Detecting the Greatest Changes in Global Satellite-Based Precipitation Observations

In recent years, the analysis of abrupt and non-abrupt changes in precipitation has received much attention due to the importance of climate change-related issues (e.g., extreme climate events). In this study, we used a novel segmentation algorithm, DBEST (Detecting Breakpoints and Estimating Segments in Trend), to analyze the greatest changes in precipitation using a monthly pixel-based satellite precipitation dataset (TRMM 3B43) at three different scales: (i) global, (ii) continental, and (iii) climate zone, during the 1998–2019 period. We found significant breakpoints, 14.1%, both in the form of abrupt and non-abrupt changes, in the global scale precipitation at the 0.05 significance level. Most of the abrupt changes were observed near the Equator in the Pacific Ocean and Asian continent, relative to the rest of the globe. Most detected breakpoints occurred during the 1998–1999 and 2009–2011 periods on the global scale. The average precipitation change for the detected breakpoint was ±100 mm, with some regions reaching ±3000 mm. For instance, most portions of northern Africa and Asia experienced major changes of approximately +100 mm. In contrast, most of the South Pacific and South Atlantic Ocean experienced changes of −100 mm during the studied period. Our findings indicated that the larger areas of Africa (23.9%), Asia (22.9%), and Australia (15.4%) experienced significant precipitation breakpoints compared to North America (11.6%), South America (9.3%), Europe (8.3%), and Oceania (9.6%). Furthermore, we found that the majority of detected significant breakpoints occurred in the arid (31.6%) and polar (24.1%) climate zones, while the least significant breakpoints were found for snow-covered (11.5%), equatorial (7.5%), and warm temperate (7.7%) climate zones. Positive breakpoints’ temporal coverage in the arid (54.0%) and equatorial (51.9%) climates were more than those in other climates zones. Here, the findings indicated that large areas of Africa and Asia experienced significant changes in precipitation (−250 to +250 mm). Compared to the average state (trend during a specific period), the greatest changes in precipitation were more abrupt and unpredictable, which might impose a severe threat to the ecology, environment, and natural resources.

Breakpoint↗

The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons: Current Status and Future Perspectives

The global monsoon system, encompassing the Asian-Australian, African, and American monsoons, sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture. Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks, including floods and droughts. Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms. Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift: increased rainfall pre-1950s, followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s, driven by both internal variability (e.g., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and external forcings (greenhouse gases, aerosols), while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions. Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification, though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist. Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes, where thermodynamic effects (warming-induced moisture rise) uniformly boost heavy rainfall, while dynamical shifts (circulation changes) create spatial heterogeneity. Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification (SRM) further complicate predictions: tropical eruptions suppress monsoons, whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows, highlighting unresolved feedbacks. The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons. Critical challenges remain. Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution. The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings, along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming, demands deeper mechanistic insights. Additionally, SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation. Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks, refined climate models, and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers, ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.

climate extreme events↗

The impact of stratospheric aerosol intervention on the North Atlantic and Quasi-Biennial Oscillations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G6sulfur experiment

As part of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project a numerical experiment known as G6sulfur has been designed in which temperatures under a high-forcing future scenario (SSP5-8.5) are reduced to those under a medium-forcing scenario (SSP2-4.5) using the proposed geoengineering technique of stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI). G6sulfur involves introducing sulfuric acid aerosol into the tropical stratosphere where it reflects incoming sunlight back to space, thus cooling the planet. Here, we compare the results from six Earth-system models that have performed the G6sulfur experiment and examine how SAI affects two important modes of natural variability, the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Although all models show that SAI is successful in reducing global mean temperature as designed, they are also consistent in showing that it forces an increasingly positive phase of the NAO as the injection rate increases over the course of the 21st century, exacerbating precipitation reductions over parts of southern Europe compared with SSP5-8.5. In contrast to the robust result for the NAO, there is less consistency for the impact on the QBO, but the results nevertheless indicate a risk that equatorial SAI could cause the QBO to stall and become locked in a phase with permanent westerly winds in the lower stratosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ocean Color and Evidence of Chlorophyll Signature in the TOMS Minimum Reflectivity Data

Analysis of the TOMS minimum reflectivity data for 380 nm channel (R380) show regions of high reflectivity values (approx. 7 to 8%) over Sargasso Sea in the Northern Atlantic, anti-cyclonic region in the Southern Atlantic, and a large part of the ocean in the Southern Pacific, and low values (5 approx. 6 %) over the rest of the open ocean. Through radiative transfer simulations we show that these features are highly correlated with the distribution of chlorophyll in the ocean. Theoretical minimum reflectivity values derived with the help of CZCS chlorophyll concentration data as input into a vector ocean-atmosphere radiative transfer code developed by Ahmad and Fraser show very good agreement with TOMS minimum reflectivity data for the winter season of year 1980. For the summer season of year 1980, good qualitative agreement is observed in the equatorial and northern hemisphere but not as good in the southern hemisphere. Also, for cloud-free conditions, we find a very strong correlation between R340 minus R380 values and the chlorophyll concentration in the ocean. Results on the possible effects of absorbing and non-absorbing aerosols on the TOMS minimum reflectivity will also be presented. The results also imply that ocean color will affect the aerosol retrieval over oceans unless corrected.

Ahmad, Z.↗

Dynamics Explorer 2 observations of equatorial thermospheric winds and temperatures: Local time and longitudinal dependences

We have analyzed a large database of Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) measurements of equatorial (less than + or - 9 degs latitude) thermospheric neutral temperatures and horizontal wind components in the altitude range from 200 to 400 km for quiet and active geomagnetic conditions (Kp less than 3 and Kp greater than 3, respectively). Local time variations and longitudinal dependences on the duskside, dayside, and nightside have been separately examined. The dayside hourly averaged neutral zonal winds are relatively insensitive to variations in geomagnetic activity and appear to show an inverse dependence (lower zonal wind speed for higher Kp) in the midnight-dawn local time sector. The duskside neutral temperatures show a region of enhancement (by approximately 60 K) over the South Atlantic magnetic anomaly. The quiet time zonal winds are weaker than the corresponding active time zonal winds on the dayside near the South Atlantic magnetic anomaly. Enhanced ionization in the region, which increases the ion drag on the neutral gas, is suggested as the causal mechanism for these effects. The DE 2 averaged measurements have also been compared with MSIS-86/HWM90 and VSH models. The data and models are in good general agreement, though, the MSIS-86/HWM90 model predicts stronger dayside zonal winds than are observed under active conditions and the VSH model appears to underestimate the magnitude of the dayside zonal winds for both high and low Kp cases.

Wu, Q↗

Global Distribution of Density Irregularities in the Equatorial Ionosphere

We analyzed measurements of ion number density made by the retarding potential analyzer aboard the Atmosphere Explorer-E (AE-E) satellite, which was in an approximately circular orbit at an altitude near 300 km in 1977 and later at an altitude near 400 km. Large-scale (greater than 60 km) density measurements in the high-altitude regions show large depletions of bubble-like structures which are confined to narrow local time longitude, and magnetic latitude ranges, while those in the low-altitude regions show relatively small depletions which are broadly distributed,in space. For this reason we considered the altitude regions below 300 km and above 350 km and investigated the global distribution of irregularities using the rms deviation delta N/N over a path length of 18 km as an indicator of overall irregularity intensity. Seasonal variations of irregularity occurrence probability are significant in the Pacific regions, while the occurrence probability is always high in die Atlantic-African regions and is always low in die Indian regions. We find that the high occurrence probability in the Pacific regions is associated with isolated bubble structures, while that near 0 deg longitude is produced by large depictions with bubble structures which are superimposed on a large-scale wave-like background. Considerations of longitude variations due to seeding mechanisms and due to F region winds and drifts are necessary to adequately explain the observations at low and high altitudes. Seeding effects are most obvious near 0 deg longitude, while the most easily observed effect of the F region is the suppression of irregularity growth by interhemispheric neutral winds.

Kil, Hyosub↗

Seasonal Phytoplankton Dynamics in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic

The coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) that operated aboard the Nimbus 7 satellite provided extensive coverage of phytoplankton pigment concentrations in the surface waters of the eastern tropical Atlantic (ETA) from March 1979 to February 1980 and coincided with four major research cruises to this region. Total primary production within the ETA (5 deg N-10 deg S, 25 deg W-10 deg E) was determined from CZCS pigment estimates and an empirical algorithm derived from concurrent in situ data taken along 4 deg W that relates near-surface chlorophyll concentration and integrated primary production. We estimated an average annual production for the ETA of 2.3 Gt C/yr with an associated 3.5-fold seasonal variation in the magnitude of this production. We describe the principal physical mechanisms controlling seasonal phytoplankton dynamics within the ETA and propose that in addition to seasonal change in the thermocline depth, one must also consider changes in the depth of the equatorial under current. An extensive validation effort indicates that the standard CZCS global products are a conservative estimate of pigment concentrations in ETA surface waters. Significant underestimates by the CZCS global products were observed in June and July which we attributed, in part, to aerosol correction errors and, more importantly, to errors caused by a significant reduction in the concentration of near-surface dissolved organic matter that resulted from strong equatorial upwelling.

Monger, Bruce↗

Transient response to localized episodic heating in the tropics

It is generally recognized that equatorial disturbances in the lower stratosphere are excited by convective latent heat release associated with the Internal Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Recently, attention has also focused on tropical convection with regard to extratropical teleconnection patterns. Unlike equatorial waves which are trapped about the equator but propagate vertically, the latter extend well out of the tropics but are barotropic. They have been most widely discussed in connection with long-term climatological features. Both types of disturbances have been examined largely from the standpoint of steady monochromatic forcing, in the latter case zero frequency or time-mean heating. However, tropical convection as revealed by recent geostationary satellite imagery is anything but regular, surely not steady. Much of the heating variance is concentrated spatially within three localized convective centers: Indonesia, the Amazon, and the Congo. Convective activity within these regions undergoes an irregular evolution over the span of a couple of days. It involves a rather broad spectrum of spatial and temporal scales. The analysis of cloud brightness over the Eastern Atlantic and Africa suggests a characteristic time scale of 3-4 days and correlations scales in latitude and longitude of approximately 30 deg.

Salby, M. L.↗

Solar Signals in CMIP-5 Simulations: The Stratospheric Pathway

The 11 year solar-cycle component of climate variability is assessed in historical simulations of models taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP-5). Multiple linear regression is applied to estimate the zonal temperature, wind and annular mode responses to a typical solar cycle, with a focus on both the stratosphere and the stratospheric influence on the surface over the period approximately 1850-2005. The analysis is performed on all CMIP-5 models but focuses on the 13 CMIP-5 models that resolve the stratosphere (high-top models) and compares the simulated solar cycle signature with reanalysis data. The 11 year solar cycle component of climate variability is found to be weaker in terms of magnitude and latitudinal gradient around the stratopause in the models than in the reanalysis. The peak in temperature in the lower equatorial stratosphere (approximately 70 hPa) reported in some studies is found in the models to depend on the length of the analysis period, with the last 30 years yielding the strongest response. A modification of the Polar Jet Oscillation (PJO) in response to the 11 year solar cycle is not robust across all models, but is more apparent in models with high spectral resolution in the short-wave region. The PJO evolution is slower in these models, leading to a stronger response during February, whereas observations indicate it to be weaker. In early winter, the magnitude of the modeled response is more consistent with observations when only data from 1979-2005 are considered. The observed North Pacific high-pressure surface response during the solar maximum is only simulated in some models, for which there are no distinguishing model characteristics. The lagged North Atlantic surface response is reproduced in both high- and low-top models, but is more prevalent in the former. In both cases, the magnitude of the response is generally lower than in observations.

stratosphere↗

Initial Observations of the Magnetic Field Measurements on the C/NOFS Satellite

The Vector Electric Field Instrument (VEFI) suite onboard the C/NOFS spacecraft includes a sensitive fluxgate magnetometer to measure DC and ULF magnetic fields in the low latitude ionosphere. The instrument includes a DC vector measurement at 1 sample/sec with a range of +/- 45,000 nT whose primary objective is to enable a V x B measurement that is more accurate than that provided by using a magnetic field model. These data will also be used to provide signatures of large-scale ionospheric current systems, which, when analyzed in conjunction with the C/NOFS DC electric field measurements, promise to advance our understanding of equatorial electrodynamics. The instrument also includes an AC-coupled vector measurement in the 0.05 - 8 Hz frequency range at 16 samples/sec with an output range of +/- 900 nT in order to measure small-scale current filaments and possible Alfven waves associated with plasma irregularities. We compare the Earth's magnetic field models such as the most recently updated IGRF (the International Geomagnetic Reference Field) model and the POMME (the POtsdam Magnetic Model of the Earth) model with the measurements in order to provide an in-flight "calibration" of the data as well as compute magnetic field differences to reveal large scale ionospheric currents. Our initial results show that, on average, the POMME model accurately reproduces the C/NOFS-measured magnetic field within 20 nT in magnitude and within 0.1 deg in field direction everywhere in the low latitude ionosphere except in the region of the South Atlantic Anomaly. Initial results of the C/NOFS magnetic field measurements will be shown.

Le, Guan↗

Global Precipitation during the 1997-98 El Nino and Initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina

The 1997-99 ENSO (El nino Southern Oscillation) cycle was very powerful, but also well observed. The best satellite rainfall estimates combined with gauge observations allow for a global analysis of precipitation anomalies accompanying the 1997-98 El Nino and initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina. For the period April 1997 to March 1998 the central to eastern Pacific, southeastern and western U.S., Argentina, eastern Africa, South China, eastern Russia, and North Atlantic were all more than two standard deviations wetter than normal. During the same year the Maritime Continent, eastern Indian Ocean, subtropical North Pacific, northeastern South America, and much of the mid- latitude southern oceans were more than two standard deviations drier than normal. An analysis of the evolution of the El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry Maritime Continent led the formation of the El Nino SST (Sea Surface Temperature), while in the central Pacific, precipitation anomalies lagged the El Nino SST by a season. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina occurred in May 1998, but as early as October-November 1997 precipitation indices captured precursor changes in Pacific rainfall anomalies. Differences were found between observed and modeled [NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis] precipitation anomalies for 1997 and 98. In particular, the model had a bias towards positive precipitation anomalies and the magnitudes of the anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small compared to the observations. Also, the evolution of the precipitation field, including the drying of the Maritime Continent and eastward progression of rainfall in the equatorial Pacific, was less pronounced for the model compared to the observations. One degree daily estimates of rainfall show clearly the MaddenJulian Oscillation and related westerly wind burst events over the Maritime Continent, which are key indicators for the onset of El Nino.

Curtis, Scott↗