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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8

Adaptive Trajectory Prediction Algorithm for Climbing Flights

Aircraft climb trajectories are difficult to predict, and large errors in these predictions reduce the potential operational benefits of some advanced features for NextGen. The algorithm described in this paper improves climb trajectory prediction accuracy by adjusting trajectory predictions based on observed track data. It utilizes rate-of-climb and airspeed measurements derived from position data to dynamically adjust the aircraft weight modeled for trajectory predictions. In simulations with weight uncertainty, the algorithm is able to adapt to within 3 percent of the actual gross weight within two minutes of the initial adaptation. The root-mean-square of altitude errors for five-minute predictions was reduced by 73 percent. Conflict detection performance also improved, with a 15 percent reduction in missed alerts and a 10 percent reduction in false alerts. In a simulation with climb speed capture intent and weight uncertainty, the algorithm improved climb trajectory prediction accuracy by up to 30 percent and conflict detection performance, reducing missed and false alerts by up to 10 percent.

Seperation Assurance↗

A high order accurate finite element algorithm for high Reynolds number flow prediction

A Galerkin-weighted residuals formulation is employed to establish an implicit finite element solution algorithm for generally nonlinear initial-boundary value problems. Solution accuracy, and convergence rate with discretization refinement, are quantized in several error norms, by a systematic study of numerical solutions to several nonlinear parabolic and a hyperbolic partial differential equation characteristic of the equations governing fluid flows. Solutions are generated using selective linear, quadratic and cubic basis functions. Richardson extrapolation is employed to generate a higher-order accurate solution to facilitate isolation of truncation error in all norms. Extension of the mathematical theory underlying accuracy and convergence concepts for linear elliptic equations is predicted for equations characteristic of laminar and turbulent fluid flows at nonmodest Reynolds number. The nondiagonal initial-value matrix structure introduced by the finite element theory is determined intrinsic to improved solution accuracy and convergence. A factored Jacobian iteration algorithm is derived and evaluated to yield a consequential reduction in both computer storage and execution CPU requirements while retaining solution accuracy.

Baker, A. J.↗

Optimizing Parameters for Deep-Space Optical Communication

A paper discusses the optimization of the parameters of a high-rate, deep-space optical communication link that utilizes pulse-position modulation (PPM) and an error-correcting code (ECC). The parameters in question include the PPM order (number of pulse time slots in one symbol period), the ECC rate, and the uncoded symbol error rate. In simple terms, the optimization problem is to choose the combination of these parameters that maximizes the throughput data rate at a given bit-error-rate (BER), subject to several constraints, including limits on the average and peak power and possibly a limit on the uncoded symbol error rate. This is a complex, multidimensional optimization problem, the solution of which involves computation of channel capacities for various combinations of the parameters. The paper presents extensive theoretical analyses and numerical predictions that elucidate the many facets of the optimization problem. It shows how a nearly optimum solution can be obtained by choosing the optimum PPM order for the desired number of bits per slot and concatenating the PPM mapping with an error-correction code so that the decoded bits satisfy some BER threshold.

Moison, Bruce↗

Novel applications of the NASA/GSFC Viterbi decoder hardware simulator

The NASA/GSFC developed an all digital, real time, programmable Viterbi decoder simulator operating at rates up to 6 Msps. With this simulator, the bit error rate (BER) performance of convolutionally encoded/Viterbi decoded Shuttle-TDRSS return link channels under pulsed radio frequency interference (RFI) conditions has been predicted. The principles of the simulator are described with special emphasis on the channel simulator and the essential interaction between CLASS software and the simulator. The sensitivity of coded BER as function of several illustrative RFI parameters is discussed for two typical Shuttle-TDRSS return link configurations.

Walvis, D. J. M.↗

Nonlinear analysis and redesign of the mixed-mode bending delamination test

The Mixed Mode Bending (MMB) test uses a lever to simultaneously apply mode I and mode II loading to a split beam specimen. An iterative analysis that accounts for the geometric nonlinearity of the MMB test was developed. The analysis accurately predicted the measured load displacement response and the strain energy release rate, G, of an MMB test specimen made of APC2 (AS4/PEEK). The errors in G when calculated using linear theory were found to be as large as thirty percent in some cases. Because it would be inconvenient to use a nonlinear analysis to analyze MMB data, the MMB apparatus was redesigned to minimize the nonlinearity. The nonlinear analysis was used as a guide in redesigning the MMB apparatus. With the redesigned apparatus, loads were applied through a roller attached to the level and loaded just above the midplane of the test specimen. The redesigned apparatuus has geometric nonlinearity errors of less than three percent, even for materials substantially tougher than APC2. This apparatus was demonstrated by measuring the mixed mode delamination fracture toughness of APC2.

Reeder, J. R.↗

Redesign of the mixed-mode bending delamination test to reduce nonlinear effects

The mixed-mode bending (MMB) test uses a lever to apply simultaneously mode I and mode II loading to a split-beam specimen. An iterative analysis that accounts for the geometric nonlinearity of the MMB test was developed. The analysis accurately predicted the measured load-displacement response and the strain energy release rate, G, of an MMB test specimen made of AS4/PEEK. The errors in G when calculated using linear theory were found to be as large as 30 percent in some cases. Because it would be inconvenient to use a nonlinear analysis to analyze MMB data, the MMB apparatus was redesigned to minimize the nonlinearity. With the improved apparatus, loads are applied just above the midplane of the test specimen through a roller attached to the lever. This apparatus was demonstrated by measuring the mixed-mode delamination fracture toughhess of the test specimen. The nonlinearity errors associated with testing this tough composite material were less than +/- 3 percent. The data from the improved MMB apparatus analyzed with a linear analysis were similar to those found with the original apparatus and the nonlinear analysis.

Reeder, James R.↗

Electron Density and Two-Channel Neutron Emission Measurements in Steady-State Spherical Inertial-Electrostatically Confined Plasmas, with Review of the One-Dimensional Kinetic Model

Electron density measurements have been made in steady-state plasmas in a spherical inertial electrostatic confinement (IEC) discharge using microwave interferometry. Plasma cores interior to two cathodes, having diameters of 15 and 23 cm, respectively, were probed over a transverse range of 10 cm with a spatial resolution of about 1.4 cm for buffer gas pressures from 0.2 to 6 Pa in argon and deuterium. The transverse profiles are generally flat, in some cases with eccentric symmetric minima, and give mean densities of from approx. = 0.4 to 7 x 10(exp 10)/cu cm, the density generally increasing with the neutral gas pressure. Numerical solutions of the one-dimensional Poisson equation for IEC plasmas are reviewed and energy distribution functions are identified which give flat transverse profiles. These functions are used with the plasma approximation to obtain solutions which also give densities consistent with the measurements, and a double potential well solution is obtained which has minima qualitatively similar to those observed. Explicit consideration is given to the compatibility of the solutions interior and exterior to the cathode, and to grid transparency. Deuterium fusion neutron emission rates were also measured and found to be isotropic, to within the measurement error, over two simultaneous directions. Anisotropy was observed in residual emissions during operation with nonfusing hydrogen- 1. The deuterium rates are consistent with predictions from the model.

Dobson, Chris C.↗

The Importance of the Measurement of the Unsteady Wake of the Aeroassist Flight Experiment Vehicle: A White Paper

The High Frequency Radiometer (HFR) is the only instrument on the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE) with sufficient temporal resolution to discern the frequency of unsteady wake oscillations. Determining both the frequency and amplitude of wake unsteadiness during AFE atmospheric entry is essential for reliably predicting the geometry and motion of the wake of future Aeroassisted Space Transfer Vehicles (ASTV). These parameters directly affect the location and size of the pay- load and the weight of the required afterbody heat protection. The purpose of the AFE is to validate the technologies required for the design of ASTVs, which will be used to exploit Earth-lunar space. This validation will be conducted at a combination of vehicle size, altitude, and velocity not obtainable in ground-based facilities. The AFE will provide the experimental flight data needed to improve our understanding of hypersonic-wake physics and to validate computational predictions of the aerodynamic and heating loads, including afterbody radiative heating loads, on an ASTV. Reliable prediction of ASTV wake flows will ensure that payloads are located within the shear-layer envelope and will determine the amount of thermal protection the payloads require. Specifically, understanding the temporal nature of the wake unsteadiness is important for two reasons. Most importantly, analysis of ground-based experiments suggests that wake unsteadiness results in a variation of as much as +/- 5 deg in the shear-flow turning angle. This angle must be reliably predicted to avoid shear-layer impingement on the vehicle afterbody, which would result in heating rates of about 10 W/sq cm, of the same order as on the forebody stagnation point. Secondly, the energy associated with wake unsteadiness will reduce the static enthalpy of the wake fluid and cause an error of as much as 30% in the amount of predicted wake radiative heating. Therefore, the HFR flight data, which will quantify the frequency and amplitude of the wake unsteadiness, are required for the verification of computational models of ASTV flowfields. Measurement of wake unsteadiness has been endorsed by the Peer Science Steering Group and the AFE Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Working Group. The Peer Science Steering Group has stressed that a reliable measurement of the wake unsteadiness is fundamental because incorporating unsteadiness represents a substantial challenge to the CFD community, and a reliable measurement will raise confidence in the computer simulation. The AFE CFD Working Group has stated that 44 any data which would prove the existence and effects of unsteady flow would be extremely valuable.

Strawa, A. W.↗

Identification of Robust Terminal-Area Routes in Convective Weather

Convective weather is responsible for large delays and widespread disruptions in the U.S. National Airspace System, especially during summer. Traffic flow management algorithms require reliable forecasts of route blockage to schedule and route traffic. This paper demonstrates how raw convective weather forecasts, which provide deterministic predictions of the vertically integrated liquid (the precipitation content in a column of airspace) can be translated into probabilistic forecasts of whether or not a terminal area route will be blocked. Given a flight route through the terminal area, we apply techniques from machine learning to determine the likelihood that the route will be open in actual weather. The likelihood is then used to optimize terminalarea operations by dynamically moving arrival and departure routes to maximize the expected capacity of the terminal area. Experiments using real weather scenarios on stormy days show that our algorithms recommend that a terminal-area route be modified 30% of the time, opening up 13% more available routes that were forecast to be blocked during these scenarios. The error rate is low, with only 5% of cases corresponding to a modified route being blocked in reality, whereas the original route is in fact open. In addition, for routes predicted to be open with probability 0.95 or greater by our method, 96% of these routes (on average over time horizon) are indeed open in the weather that materializes

Pfeil, Diana Michalek↗

Low-frequency predictability of the Dynamical Extended-Range Forecast Experiment

The objective of the study was to analyze data from the Dynamical Extended-Range Forecast Experiment conducted from January 1986 to March 1987, and to evaluate differences between analysis and forecasts with emphasis on the tropical 30-50-day oscillation. The diagnostic toll used is the projection of analysis and forecast data onto the normal modes of a primitive equation model. Examination of zonal-wind anomalies in the tropics shows that the forecast model predicts propagation of intraseasonal variations more accurately for slow propagation rates. The forecast amplitude is generally weaker than the analyzed amplitude. Analyzed kinetic energy and error fields exhibit similar horizontal scales for internal and external modes. External Rossby-mode components maximize in the extratropics while Rossby internal modes exhibit patterns that extend over the entire globe.

Nogues-Peagle, Julia↗

Using APEX to Model Anticipated Human Error: Analysis of a GPS Navigational Aid

The interface development process can be dramatically improved by predicting design facilitated human error at an early stage in the design process. The approach we advocate is to SIMULATE the behavior of a human agent carrying out tasks with a well-specified user interface, ANALYZE the simulation for instances of human error, and then REFINE the interface or protocol to minimize predicted error. This approach, incorporated into the APEX modeling architecture, differs from past approaches to human simulation in Its emphasis on error rather than e.g. learning rate or speed of response. The APEX model consists of two major components: (1) a powerful action selection component capable of simulating behavior in complex, multiple-task environments; and (2) a resource architecture which constrains cognitive, perceptual, and motor capabilities to within empirically demonstrated limits. The model mimics human errors arising from interactions between limited human resources and elements of the computer interface whose design falls to anticipate those limits. We analyze the design of a hand-held Global Positioning System (GPS) device used for radical and navigational decisions in small yacht recalls. The analysis demonstrates how human system modeling can be an effective design aid, helping to accelerate the process of refining a product (or procedure).

VanSelst, Mark↗

Electron Density and Two-Channel Neutron Emission Measurements in Steady-State Spherical Inertial-Electrostatically Confined Plasmas, with Review of the 1-D Kinetic Model

Electron density measurements have been made in steady-state plasmas in a spherical inertial electrostatic confinement (IEC) discharge using microwave interferometry. Plasma cores interior to two cathodes, having diameters of 15 and 23 cm, respectively, were probed over a transverse range of 10 cm with a spatial resolution of about 1.4 cm for buffer gas pressures from 0.2 to 6 Pa in argon and deuterium. The transverse profiles are generally flat, in some cases with eccentric symmetric minima, and give mean densities of from approx. = 0.4 to 7x 10(exp 10)/cu cm, the density generally increasing with the neutral gas pressure. Numerical solutions of the 1-D Poisson equation for EC plasmas are reviewed and energy distribution functions are identified which give flat transverse profiles. These functions are used with the plasma approximation to obtain solutions which also give densities consistent with the measurements, and a double potential well solution is obtained which has minima qualitatively similar to those observed. Explicit consideration is given to the compatibility of the solutions interior and exterior to the cathode, and to grid transparency. Deuterium fusion neutron emission rates were also measured and found to be isotropic, to within the measurement error, over two simultaneous directions. Anisotropy was observed in residual emissions during operation with non-fusing hydrogen-1. The deuterium rates are consistent with predictions from the model.

Dobson, Chris C.↗

Airborne observations in support of a satellite observation-based OH product

This presentation outlines work to date analyzing airborne observations to improve a satellite observation-based hydroxyl radical (OH) column product by interrogating model chemistry processes. Anderson et al., 2023, established a machine learning method to combine satellite observations of O3, CO, NO2, HCHO, H2O, and aerosol optical depth, along with analyzed sea surface temperatures, for the prediction of tropospheric column OH (TCOH). Since the TCOH machine learning model was trained on output from the MERRA-2 GMI model simulation, we seek to identify if any model deficiencies may yield errors in the TCOH prediction. By evaluating F0AM box model simulations and neural networks trained to reproduce in situ OH concentrations, together with output reaction rates and interpretability metrics, respectively, we validate the Anderson et al. TCOH model and assess the largest contributors to uncertainties.

Hydroxyl, oxidizing capacity, troposphere, airborn↗

Power Operations of the Mars Exploration Rovers

The rovers of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) project, Spirit (MER-A) and Opportunity (MER-B), safely landed on the surface of Mars three weeks apart during January 2004. Spirit and Opportunity were built and operated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), which is managed by the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) for NASA. Spirit landed at Gusev Crater, 14.8 degrees south of the equator, and operated continuously on the surface of Mars from January 4, 2004 until last contact from Spirit on March 22, 2010. Opportunity landed at Meridiani Planum, a location 2.5 degrees south of the Martian equator. Opportunity operated continuously on the Martian surface from January 25, 2004 until the last received transmission from Opportunity on June 10, 2018. The goal of the MER project was to determine if Mars ever had a habitable environment, in particular, if it ever had water. During their missions, both Spirit and Opportunity found evidence that liquid water once flowed on the surface of Mars. Both Spirit and Opportunity used a 1.33 m2 triple-junction solar array as their power sources. Based on observations of the original Mars rover, the Sojourner rover of the Mars Pathfinder mission that landed on Mars on July 4, 1997, the expectation was that the Martian dust would rapidly accumulate on the solar arrays of Spirit and Opportunity, and that the rovers would not have enough energy to continue operations after 90 Martian days (sols). Instead, due in part to lower dust accumulation rates than expected and numerous dust cleaning events, the Spirit and Opportunity rovers continued to operate on the Martian surface for over 2000 sols (MER-A) and 5000 sols (MER-B), respectively. During this time, the rovers experienced multiple Martian winters and several dust storms. Because the sources of solar array energy loss were known, the solar array energy output offered a method to scientifically estimate the loading and aeolian removal of dust from the solar arrays each sol. The MER Power operations team called this value that they calculated the solar array Dust Factor (DF). Dust Factor was defined as the fraction of sunlight that penetrates the accumulated dust on the surface of the solar array. A Dust Factor of 1.0 would indicate that the solar array was perfectly clean. A Dust Factor of 0.6 would indicate that only 60% of the available sunlight was able to penetrate the accumulated dust on the solar arrays. The MER Power subsystem operations team used the Multi-Mission Power Analysis Tool (MMPAT) to perform these Dust Factor calculations. The MMPAT software tool modeled the behavior of the solar arrays and the batteries as they interacted with the spacecraft power loads over the mission timeline. MMPAT also had knowledge (through telemetry and user inputs) of telemetered Power subsystem voltages and currents, atmospheric opacity (Tau), rover surface location, rover attitude, the planetary tilt and distance of Mars from the sun based on day of year, the instantaneous elevation of the sun based on time of day, temperatures (internal and external), terrain masking, and shadowing (due to the camera mast and antennas). Once all of the known sources of array energy loss are accounted, the remaining difference between the expected array energy and the actual array energy determines the solar array Dust Factor. The assumptions made while determining the Dust Factor are 1) that the single measured atmospheric opacity value (Tau) is constant over the course of the entire sol, 2) there is no measurable solar cell degradation, 3) there are no shorted strings and therefore, 4) all unexpected solar array energy losses are due to accumulated dust on the solar array. Although it cannot provide an absolute measure of dust loading, the determination of solar array Dust Factor provides a useful way of tracking dust accumulation and aeolian dust removal trends on Martian spacecraft. Any spacecraft on the Martian surface is vulnerable to dust, especially solar-powered spacecraft. The Spirit and Opportunity rovers were operational on the Martian surface for much longer than expected due in part to aeolian removal of dust from their solar arrays. The first few dust removal events were a pleasant surprise to the MER operations teams; however, over time a pattern began to arise. In over three Mars Years on the surface, the Power operations team tracked the solar array Dust Factor at Gusev Crater (location of MER-A) and observed that there were several significant dust removal and deposition events in Mars Year (MY) 27, even in the absence of a large dust storm. In MY 28 at Gusev Crater, the large atmospheric opacity (Tau) increase lagged significant dust removal events. Overall at Gusev Crater, there was a pattern of steady dust accumulation on the solar arrays, with a small number of significant dust cleaning events. At Meridiani Planum, where Opportunity rover operated for over seven Mars Years (late MY 26 to mid MY 34), a clear and consistent pattern of dust movement emerged. Meridiani Planum had a predictable, seasonally dependent pattern of gradual and continuous dust accumulation and removal. In summary, this paper explains the reasons for the development of the solar array Dust Factor and how it was used in mission operations. In particular, this paper describes the MMPAT software package, how it models array energy, including the important assumptions, model inputs and sources of error. And finally, this paper will show how the calculated solar array Dust Factor was used at Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum to predict dust accumulation rates and weather patterns, and the importance of this generated data set for current and future solar- powered missions to Mars, such as the InSight lander and the planned Mars Sample Return rover.

Chin, Keith B.↗

Forecasting Battery Electrode Performance via Electrochemical Fluorescence Microscopy and Machine-Learning

Predicting lithium-ion battery performance is hindered by microscale electrode heterogeneities invisible to conventional diagnostics. Here, we combine electrochemical fluorescence microscopy (EFM), which maps electronic connectivity by visualizing an electrofluorophore reaction distribution, with a multitask ElasticNet regression to forecast discharge capacity from spatial heterogeneity. Analyzing 196 images from six pilot-scale LiNi 0.5 Mn 0.3 Co 0.2 O 2 cathodes with varying carbon loadings, we extract 62 descriptors that capture morphology and texture. A compact five-feature model predicts capacity across eight discharge rates, achieving a per-target R 2 of up to 0.63 and an overall R 2 of 0.92, with a mean absolute percentage error of less than 2%. This performance rivals impedance-based approaches while avoiding their reliance on postformation data and incomplete electronic network information. Our facile and rapid, image-driven method may enable electrode quality control upstream of costly cell assembly to offer a transformative tool for data-driven battery research and manufacturing.

battery electrodes↗

Cloud Condensation Nuclei Prediction Error from Application of Kohler Theory: Importance for the Aerosol Indirect Effect

In situ observations of aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and the GISS GCM Model II' with an online aerosol simulation and explicit aerosol-cloud interactions are used to quantify the uncertainty in radiative forcing and autoconversion rate from application of Kohler theory. Simulations suggest that application of Koehler theory introduces a 10-20% uncertainty in global average indirect forcing and 2-11% uncertainty in autoconversion. Regionally, the uncertainty in indirect forcing ranges between 10-20%, and 5-50% for autoconversion. These results are insensitive to the range of updraft velocity and water vapor uptake coefficient considered. This study suggests that Koehler theory (as implemented in climate models) is not a significant source of uncertainty for aerosol indirect forcing but can be substantial for assessments of aerosol effects on the hydrological cycle in climatically sensitive regions of the globe. This implies that improvements in the representation of GCM subgrid processes and aerosol size distribution will mostly benefit indirect forcing assessments. Predictions of autoconversion, by nature, will be subject to considerable uncertainty; its reduction may require explicit representation of size-resolved aerosol composition and mixing state.

Sotiropoulou, Rafaella-Eleni P.↗

Dissociation of molecular oxygen in the Schumann-Runge bands

Oscillator strengths and predissociation linewidths deduced in recent studies predict a dissociation rate for O2 in the Schumann-Runge bands which is significantly larger in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere than previously believed. Error bars on molecular parameters required in the cross-section calculation translate into uncertainties in the dissociation rate which are less than plus or minus 10% at all altitudes where the Schumann-Runge bands are aeronomically significant.

Frederick, J. E.↗

Effects of target fragmentation on evaluation of LET spectra from space radiation in low-earth orbit (LEO) environment: impact on SEU predictions

Recent improvements in the radiation transport code HZETRN/BRYNTRN and galactic cosmic ray environmental model have provided an opportunity to investigate the effects of target fragmentation on estimates of single event upset (SEU) rates for spacecraft memory devices. Since target fragments are mostly of very low energy, an SEU prediction model has been derived in terms of particle energy rather than linear energy transfer (LET) to account for nonlinear relationship between range and energy. Predictions are made for SEU rates observed on two Shuttle flights, each at low and high inclination orbit. Corrections due to track structure effects are made for both high energy ions with track structure larger than device sensitive volume and for low energy ions with dense track where charge recombination is important. Results indicate contributions from target fragments are relatively important at large shield depths (or any thick structure material) and at low inclination orbit. Consequently, a more consistent set of predictions for upset rates observed in these two flights is reached when compared to an earlier analysis with CREME model. It is also observed that the errors produced by assuming linear relationship in range and energy in the earlier analysis have fortuitously canceled out the errors for not considering target fragmentation and track structure effects.

STS-51 Shuttle Project↗