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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Estimating the costs of human space exploration

The plan for NASA's new exploration initiative has the following strategic themes: (1) incremental, logical evolutionary development; (2) economic viability; and (3) excellence in management. The cost estimation process is involved with all of these themes and they are completely dependent upon the engineering cost estimator for success. The purpose is to articulate the issues associated with beginning this major new government initiative, to show how NASA intends to resolve them, and finally to demonstrate the vital importance of a leadership role by the cost estimation community.

Mandell, Humboldt C., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The analysis of star catalogs. 1: An intercomparison among the FK3, the FK4, and the FK5

Progress in the construction of the fundamental catalogs allows one to ask the following questions: 'Now that we have the FK5 with which to measure by, how good was the FK4? The FK3? How realistic were the error estimates they gave for their equatorial coordinates and their proper motions? Have their residual systematic differences continued to decrease in amplitude?' and so forth. Similar questions could be asked of the GC and the N30, and a companion paper will similarly analyze them. Finally, the identical series of questions could be asked of the AGK2, AGK3, AGK3U sequence. In this paper we develop a general method to objectively investigate, post facto, the true quality of star catalog error estimates. We present a complete mathematical formulation of the questions above and delineate the calculations needed to address them. Our initial numerical applications are restricted to a straightforward examination of the mean errors of the coordinates and proper motions in the FK3 (using the FK4 and the FK5 for comparison) and in the FK4 (using the FK5 for comparison). However, we can simply and consistently interpret the results of these computations -- for the FK catalogs fail to follow the predictions of mathematical statistics -- only if the FK3 and the FK4 contain higher angular frequency systematic errors. These errors, at the mean epochs of place of the older catalogs, are larger than the random errors in the FK5 system. We expect that our new ability to discern these features means that we can also prevent them during compilation. Finally, note that the concepts behind our procedures are completely general and can be applied to any set of compiled data -- astrometric, photometric, geodetic, and so forth.

Bucciarelli, B.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Methods and Apparatus for Reducing Multipath Signal Error Using Deconvolution

A deconvolution approach to adaptive signal processing has been applied to the elimination of signal multipath errors as embodied in one preferred embodiment in a global positioning system receiver. The method and receiver of the present invention estimates then compensates for multipath effects in a comprehensive manner. Application of deconvolution, along with other adaptive identification and estimation techniques, results in completely novel GPS (Global Positioning System) receiver architecture.

Kumar, Rajendra↗
NASA NTRS2000

Validation and Development of the GPCP Experimental One-Degree Daily (1DD) Global Precipitation Product

The One-Degree Daily (1DD) precipitation dataset has been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and is currently in beta test preparatory to release as an official GPCP product. The 1DD provides a globally-complete, observation-only estimate of precipitation on a daily 1 deg. x 1 deg. grid for the period 1997 through early 2000 (by the time of the conference). In the latitude band 40N-40S the 1DD uses the Threshold-Matched Precipitation Index (TMPI), a GPI-like IR product with the pixel-level T(sub b) threshold and (single) conditional rain rate determined locally for each month by the frequency of precipitation in the GPROF SSM/I product and by, the precipitation amount in the GPCP monthly satellite-gauge (SG) combination. Outside 40N-40S the 1DD uses a scaled TOVS precipitation estimate that has month-by-month adjustments based on the TMPI and the SG. Early validation results are encouraging. The 1DD shows relatively large scatter about the daily validation values in individual grid boxes, as expected for a technique that depends on cloud-sensing schemes such as the TMPI and TOVS. On the other hand, the time series of 1DD shows good correlation with validation in individual boxes. For example, the 1997-1998 time series of 1DD and Oklahoma Mesonet values in a grid box in northeastern Oklahoma have the correlation coefficient = 0.73. Looking more carefully at these two time series, the number of raining days for the 1DD is within 7% of the Mesonet value, while the distribution of daily rain values is very similar. Other tests indicate that area- or time-averaging improve the error characteristics, making the data set highly attractive to users interested in stream flow, short-term regional climatology, and model comparisons. The second generation of the 1DD product is currently under development; it is designed to directly incorporate TRMM and other high-quality precipitation estimates. These data are generally sparse because they are observed by low-orbit satellites, so a fair amount of work must be devoted to analyzing the effect of data boundaries. This work is laying, the groundwork for effective use of the NASA Global Precipitation Mission, which will have full Global coverage by low-orbit passive microwave satellites every three hours.

Huffman, George J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Accelerated Aging of Lead-Free Propellant

Following higher than expected 2-NDPA depletion rates in a lead-free doublebase formulation (RPD-422), an accelerated aging study was conducted to verify the depletion rates. A test plan was prepared to compare the aging characteristics of lead-free propellant and NOSIH-AA2. The study was also designed to determine which lead-free ballistic modifiers accelerated 2-NDPA depletion. The increased depletion rate occurred in propellants containing monobasic copper salicylate. Four lead-free propellants were then formulated to improved aging characteristics over previous lead-free propellant formulations. The new formulations reduced or replaced the monobasic copper salicylate. The new formulations had improved aging characteristics. Their burn rates, however, were unacceptable for use in a 2.75 inch rocket. To compare aging characteristics, stabilizer depletion rates of RPD-422, AA2, M28, and RLC 470/6A were measured or taken from the literature. The data were fit to a kinetic model. The model contained first and zero order terms which allowed the stabilizer concentration to go to zero. In the model, only the concentration of the primary stabilizer was considered. Derivatives beyond the first nitrated or nitroso derivative of 2-NPDA were not considered. The rate constants were fit to the Arrhenius equation and extrapolated to lower temperatures. The time to complete stabilizer depletion was estimated using the kinetic model. The four propellants were compared and the RPD-422 depleted faster at 45 C than both A22 and M28. These types of predictions depend on the validity of the model and on confidence in the Arrhenius relationship holding at lower temperatures. At 45 C, the zero order portion of the model dominates the depletion rate.

Furrow, Keith W.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Unsteady Aerodynamic Modeling in Roll for the NASA Generic Transport Model

Reducing the impact of loss-of-control conditions on commercial transport aircraft is a primary goal of the NASA Aviation Safety Program. One aspect in developing the supporting technologies is to improve the aerodynamic models that represent these adverse conditions. Aerodynamic models appropriate for loss of control conditions require a more general mathematical representation to predict nonlinear unsteady behaviors. In this paper, a more general mathematical model is proposed for the subscale NASA Generic Transport Model (GTM) that covers both low and high angles of attack. Particular attention is devoted to the stall region where full-scale transports have demonstrated a tendency for roll instability. The complete aerodynamic model was estimated from dynamic wind-tunnel data. Advanced computational methods are used to improve understanding and visualize the flow physics within the region where roll instability is a factor.

Murphy, Patrick C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

11 Foot Unitary Plan Tunnel Facility Optical Improvement Large Window Analysis

The test section of the 11 by 11-foot Unitary Plan Transonic Wind Tunnel (11-foot UPWT) may receive an upgrade of larger optical windows on both the North and South sides. These new larger windows will provide better access for optical imaging of test article flow phenomena including surface and off body flow characteristics. The installation of these new larger windows will likely produce a change to the aerodynamic characteristics of the flow in the Test Section. In an effort understand the effect of this change, a computational model was employed to predict the flows through the slotted walls, in the test section and around the model before and after the tunnel modification. This report documents the solid CAD model that was created and the inviscid computational analysis that was completed as a preliminary estimate of the effect of the changes.

computer aided design↗
NASA NTRS2015

Earned Value Management (EVM): Reference Guide for Project-Control Account Managers

The purpose of this guide is intended to be a quick reference for a Project-Control Account Manager (P CAM) or technical manager empowered with a project’s cost, schedule, and technical responsibilities of a control account(s) when Earned Value Management (EVM) is required. The overall objective is to support the P CAM in performing their responsibilities as they relate to EVM. In addition, the reference guide describes at a summary level how the scope, schedule, and budget of a project integrate for optimal planning and control of prime contracts and in-house projects.

Control Account Manager↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant (Presentation)

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies the risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of value at risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. This paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verifying the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. This paper’s results present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizeable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of Value at Risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and to assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. The paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verification of the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. The results of this paper present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1983

Error latency estimation using functional fault modeling

A complete modeling of faults at gate level for a fault tolerant computer is both infeasible and uneconomical. Functional fault modeling is an approach where units are characterized at an intermediate level and then combined to determine fault behavior. The applicability of functional fault modeling to the FTMP is studied. Using this model a forecast of error latency is made for some functional blocks. This approach is useful in representing larger sections of the hardware and aids in uncovering system level deficiencies.

Manthani, S. R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

GaussFit - A system for least squares and robust estimation

GaussFit is a new computer program for solving least-squares and robust estimation problems. It has a number of unique features, including a complete programming language designed especially to formulate estimation problems, a built-in compiler and interpreter to support the programming language, and a built-in algebraic manipulator for calculating the required partial derivatives analytically. These features make GaussFit very easy to use, so that even complex problems can be set up and solved with minimal effort. GaussFit can correctly handle many cases of practical interest: nonlinear models, exact constraints, correlated observations, and models where the equations of condition contain more than one observed quantity. An experimental robust estimation capability is built into GaussFit so that data sets contaminated by outliers can be handled simply and efficiently.

Jefferys, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Star formation in Taurus. I - The IRAS Faint Source Survey

A deep infrared survey of a 187 sq deg region in Taurus using the IRAS Faint Source Survey reveals 63 multiband objects selected on the basis of their infrared properties. Two-thirds of the sample are previously uncataloged and are most likely either deeply embedded objects or unidentified T Tauri stars. Complete IRAS data are presented for these objects. The sample is estimated to be more than 90 percent complete for objects emitting L equal to or greater than 0.1 solar luminosity between 12 and 60 microns. The luminosity function shows a decline at luminosities below 0.3 solar luminosity. The formation of a massive, 0.1 solar mass, disk of circumstellar material serving as a reservoir for infalling cloud material represents a possible resolution of the problem. A population of unresolved sources emitting only at 60 microns is also identified. If any of these objects are self-luminous, they may represent the youngest protostellar objects yet observed.

Beichman, C. A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Construction of the damped Ly⁢𝛼 absorber catalog for DESI DR2 Ly⁢𝛼 BAO

We present the Damped Ly⁢𝛼 Toolkit for automated detection and characterization of damped Ly⁢𝛼 absorbers (DLAs) in quasar spectra. Our method uses quasar spectral templates with and without absorption from intervening DLAs to reconstruct observed quasar forest regions. The best-fitting model determines whether a DLA is present while estimating the redshift and HI column density. With an optimized quality cut on detection significance (Δ⁢𝜒$^{2}_{𝑟}$ >0.03), the technique achieves an estimated 80% purity and 79% completeness when evaluated on simulated spectra with S/N>2 that are free of broad absorption lines (BALs). We provide a catalog containing candidate DLAs from the DLA Toolkit detected in DESI DR1 quasar spectra, of which 21 719 were found in S/N>2 spectra with predicted log 10 ⁡(𝑁 𝙷𝙸 )>20.3 and detection significance Δ⁢𝜒$^{2}_{𝑟}$ >0.03. We compare the Damped Ly⁢𝛼 Toolkit to two alternative DLA finders based on a convolutional neural network and Gaussian process models. We present a strategy for combining these three techniques to produce a high-fidelity DLA catalog from DESI DR2 for the Ly⁢𝛼 forest baryon acoustic oscillation measurement. The combined catalog contains 41 152 candidate DLAs with log 10 ⁡(𝑁 𝙷𝙸 )>20.3 from quasar spectra with S/N>2. We estimate this sample to be approximately 85% pure and 79% complete when BAL quasars are excluded.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1983

Space Shuttle propulsion parameter estimation using optimal estimation techniques, volume 1

The mathematical developments and their computer program implementation for the Space Shuttle propulsion parameter estimation project are summarized. The estimation approach chosen is the extended Kalman filtering with a modified Bryson-Frazier smoother. Its use here is motivated by the objective of obtaining better estimates than those available from filtering and to eliminate the lag associated with filtering. The estimation technique uses as the dynamical process the six degree equations-of-motion resulting in twelve state vector elements. In addition to these are mass and solid propellant burn depth as the ""system'' state elements. The ""parameter'' state elements can include aerodynamic coefficient, inertia, center-of-gravity, atmospheric wind, etc. deviations from referenced values. Propulsion parameter state elements have been included not as options just discussed but as the main parameter states to be estimated. The mathematical developments were completed for all these parameters. Since the systems dynamics and measurement processes are non-linear functions of the states, the mathematical developments are taken up almost entirely by the linearization of these equations as required by the estimation algorithms.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1996

Fossil preservation and the stratigraphic ranges of taxa

The incompleteness of the fossil record hinders the inference of evolutionary rates and patterns. Here, we derive relationships among true taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and observed taxonomic ranges. We use these relationships to estimate original distributions of taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and completeness (proportion of taxa preserved), given only the observed ranges. No data on occurrences within the ranges of taxa are required. When preservation is random and the original distribution of durations is exponential, the inference of durations, preservability, and completeness is exact. However, reasonable approximations are possible given non-exponential duration distributions and temporal and taxonomic variation in preservability. Thus, the approaches we describe have great potential in studies of taphonomy, evolutionary rates and patterns, and genealogy. Analyses of Upper Cambrian-Lower Ordovician trilobite species, Paleozoic crinoid genera, Jurassic bivalve species, and Cenozoic mammal species yield the following results: (1) The preservation probability inferred from stratigraphic ranges alone agrees with that inferred from the analysis of stratigraphic gaps when data on the latter are available. (2) Whereas median durations based on simple tabulations of observed ranges are biased by stratigraphic resolution, our estimates of median duration, extinction rate, and completeness are not biased.(3) The shorter geologic ranges of mammalian species relative to those of bivalves cannot be attributed to a difference in preservation potential. However, we cannot rule out the contribution of taxonomic practice to this difference. (4) In the groups studied, completeness (proportion of species [trilobites, bivalves, mammals] or genera [crinoids] preserved) ranges from 60% to 90%. The higher estimates of completeness at smaller geographic scales support previous suggestions that the incompleteness of the fossil record reflects loss of fossiliferous rock more than failure of species to enter the fossil record in the first place.

NASA Program Exobiology↗
NASA NTRS1980

A low-order global gravity field of Venus and dynamical implications

An estimate of sixth-degree and sixth-order harmonic coefficients of the global gravity field of Venus is obtained by processing the long periodic variations of the mean orbital elements of the Pioneer Venus orbiter. Approximately 220 days of data are included in this reduction, which provides almost complete longitudinal coverage. Oblateness is estimated to be -5.97 + or - 3.2 x 10 to the -6. It is noted that the amplitudes of other coefficients are similar to the predicted coefficients using Kaula's rule under equal stress assumption. Atmospheric density values as a function of altitude are obtained to help model drag perturbation. A radial acceleration map at 100 km above the Venus surface is generated, and correlation between gravity anomalies and major topographic features is observed. Spectral analysis of the harmonic model suggests that the interior density anomalies are like those on earth. The orientation angles of the principal axes of the moments of inertia are computed, and deviation of the maximum moment of inertia axis from the spin axis is observed to be small (less than 5 deg). It is found that the minimum moment of inertia axis passes through the Aphrodite and Beta regions.

Ananda, M. P.↗