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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Karhunen–Loève deep learning method for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation

We evaluate the performance of the Karhunen-Loève Deep Neural Network (KL-DNN) framework for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation in partial differential equation models. In the surrogate model, the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions are used for the dimensionality reduction of the number of unknown parameters and variables, and a deep neural network is employed to relate the reduced space of parameters to that of the state variables. The KL-DNN surrogate model is used to formulate a maximum-a-posteriori-like least-squares problem, which is randomized to draw samples of the posterior distribution of the parameters. We test the proposed framework for a hypothetical unconfined aquifer via comparison with the forward MODFLOW and inverse PEST++ iterative ensemble smoother (IES) solutions as well as the state-of-the-art Fourier neural operator (FNO) and deep operator networks (DeepONets) operator learning surrogate models. Our results show that the KL-DNN surrogate model outperforms FNO and DeepONet for forward predictions. For solving inverse problems, the randomized algorithm provides the same or more accurate Bayesian predictions of the parameters than IES as evidenced by the higher log-predictive probability of both the estimated parameter field and the forecast hydraulic head. The posterior mean obtained from the randomized algorithm is closer to the reference parameter field than that obtained with FNO as the maximum a posteriori estimate.

Approximate Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cost estimation of balance of plant equipment scale up for proton exchange membrane water electrolyzer systems

Water electrolyzers that use electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen could be a key technology for increasing hydrogen supply to meet expanded and emerging market applications, although currently the capital costs of these electrolyzers are high. Here we examine cost reductions that might be achieved by scaling up proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer systems and leveraging economies of scale through balance of plant (BOP) components for system sizes between 1 MW and 1 GW. We estimate BOP equipment capital costs of about $\$$848/kW at 1 MW, potentially decreasing to $\$$87/kW at 1 GW (2022-dollar year basis) with most of the cost reduction happening as systems scale from 1 MW to 100 MW. We find that BOP subsystems hydrogen drying and water knockout benefited the most from economies-of-scale cost reductions, and piping, instrumentation, and housing and power electronics were less impacted. These cost reductions from economies of scale could be more significant than estimated cost reductions from manufacturing scale-up reported in literature. These results add to the knowledge base that could guide optimal system designs that balance process scale-up with plant modularization and numbering-up. We also estimate that scaling up BOP could potentially lower the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) by $\$$1.7-$\$$4.6/kg, depending on the scale-up magnitude and the plant capacity factor.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Online Bayesian State Estimation for Real-Time Monitoring of Growth Kinetics in Thin Film Synthesis

Rapid validation of newly predicted materials through autonomous synthesis requires real-time adaptive control methods that exploit physics knowledge, a capability that is lacking in most systems. Here, in this study, we demonstrate an approach to enable real-time control of thin film synthesis by combining in situ optical diagnostics with a Bayesian state estimation method. We developed a physical model for film growth and applied the direct filter (DF) method for real-time estimation of nucleation and growth rates during pulsed laser deposition (PLD). We validated the approach using simulated and experimental reflectivity data for WSe 2 growth and ultimately deployed the algorithm on an autonomous PLD system during the growth of 1T'-MoTe 2 . The DF robustly estimates growth parameters in real time at early stages of growth, down to 15% monolayer area coverage. This fusion of in situ diagnostics, data assimilation, and physical modeling opens new opportunities in adaptive control of synthesis trajectories toward desired material states.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Battery State of Health Estimator: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report

NREL has developed a software tool to enable Renewance to estimate the degradation of batteries from basic information such as the type of battery and the application of that battery during its first life, so that used batteries may be evaluated for potential repurposing at low cost. This software tool utilizes NREL's BLAST-Lite battery degradation modeling code, which was updated with additional models for commercially produced lithium-ion batteries as a part of this CRADA. The software tool enables users to input details such as battery type and application so that lifetime estimates can be made without any programming or expert battery knowledge. The application input loads in saved values for parameters such as cycles per year, depth-of-discharge, and other battery operating parameters from a file defined by Renewance. These parameters may be modified to refine simulations for specific batteries. The software tool also incorporates a degradation model optimization tool, whereby existing battery degradation models may be tuned according to measured battery health. This ensures that new models still predict degradation behaviors expected from a certain battery chemistry, but with the overall degradation rate tuned to a specific battery make and model. The new model can then be saved for estimating the degradation of other similar batteries. An additional task was planned to utilize machine-learning to enable battery health diagnosis from rapid EIS measurements to accelerate the screening of used batteries. This task was not completed due to lack of available data for training a machine-learning model. CRADA benefit to DOE, Participant, and US Taxpayer: Further development of open-source software tool BLAST-Lite for predicting the lifetime of commercially produced Lithium-ion batteries (NREL SWR-22-69).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

MTL_TX: A Multi-Task Transformer Model for Improved Radiation Time-Series Estimation

Controlling radiation doses at potential radioactive facilities is critical to ensuring the safety of both personnel and the public. At the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLab), multiple sensors are deployed around the three experimental halls to monitor key parameters, including single-beam current, energy levels, current leakage, and radiation values during accelerator operations. In this study, we developed a Multi-task Transformer model, MTL_TX, to accurately estimate radiation doses at sensor locations based on historical data, with the aim of enhancing safety in accelerator facilities and surrounding public areas. To improve estimation accuracy, we integrated two innovative components into the proposed model: hierarchical feature embedding (HFE) and multi-level decomposition attention (MDA). Additionally, the multi-task learning (MTL) framework effectively leverages correlations among multiple sensors, enabling individual estimations for each sensor. MTL_TX achieved outstanding results on data collected in 2018, with an MSE of 0.1464, an RMSE of 0.2353, and an R 2 score of 0.8584. Furthermore, when trained on 2018 data, MTL_TX exhibited excellent generalization capability to unseen datasets from 2016 to 2019, achieving an MSE of 0.1407, an RMSE of 0.2263, and an R 2 score of 0.8831. These results demonstrate a significant improvement over existing state-of-the-art models.

Transformer↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Fiducial Markers for Pose Estimation of an OSWEC in a Wave Tank: Preprint

In this study, we consider a novel method of sensing the motion of a wave energy converter during testing in a wave flume under the influence of incoming waves. The wave energy converter considered in our research is an oscillating surge wave energy converter, which is a hinged paddle that responds to incoming waves. Motion sensing is normally done with inertial sensors, which can hinder the motion due to suspended cables that carry power and transmit signals. Our proposed method is contactless and can be implemented economically. A camera is used to record different marker patterns affixed to the moving paddle and the motion deduced by pose estimation algorithms. Fiducial markers are commonly used for robot localization and in augmented reality. There are many types of fiducial markers, including ArUco-type markers which are accurate, fast and robust. The system consists of markers attached to the paddle element and recorded using a machine vision camera. A pose estimation algorithm is then applied to the detected markers to estimate the tilt of the paddle. In this work, we examine the challenges of image acquisition and calibration for underwater targets, compare the motion obtained by this new system with a calibrated tilt sensor and identify areas where the new system may be superior.

computer vision↗
DOE OSTI2025

Utility of near‐surface phenology in estimating productivity and evapotranspiration across diverse ecosystems

Abstract Agroecosystems, which include row crops, pasture, and grass and shrub grazing lands, are sensitive to changes in management, weather, and genetics. To better understand how these systems are responding to changes, we need to improve monitoring and modeling carbon and water dynamics. Vegetation Indices (VIs) are commonly used to estimate gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET), but these empirical relationships are often location and crop specific. There is a need to evaluate if VIs can be effective and, more general, predictors of ecosystem processes through time and across different agroecosystems. Near‐surface photographic (red‐green‐blue) images from PhenoCam can be used to calculate the VI green chromatic coordinate (G CC ) and offer a pathway to improve understanding of field‐scale relationships between VIs and GPP and ET. We synthesized observations spanning 76 site‐years across 15 agroecosystem sites with PhenoCam G CC and GPP or ET estimates from eddy covariance (EC) to quantify interannual variability (IAV) in the relationship between GPP and ET and G CC across. We uncovered a high degree of variability in the strength and slopes of the G CC ∼ GPP and ET relationships (R 2 = 0.1 ‐ 0.9) within and across production systems. Overall, G CC is a better predictor of GPP than ET (R 2 = 0.64 and 0.54, respectively), performing best in croplands (R 2 = 0.91). Shrub‐dominated systems exhibit the lowest predictive power of G CC for GPP and ET but have less IAV in slope. We propose that PhenoCam estimates of G CC could provide an alternative approach for predictions of ecosystem processes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

A statistical and simulation-informed model for estimating permeability from pore size distribution in saturated geomaterials

Accurate permeability estimation is essential across subsurface engineering applications but remains challenging due to the complex pore structures of natural geomaterials. Traditional empirical methods and simplified theoretical models often inadequately capture the role of pore size distribution and connectivity. Here, this study develops a statistical and simulation-informed permeability model that collapses pore-scale complexity into a compact scaling of the form k = αϕμ d 2 , where ϕ is porosity, μ d is mean pore size, and α is a weakly varying coefficient. By combining pore network simulations with statistical analysis of unimodal and bimodal pore size distributions, we identify three key findings: (i) permeability is much more sensitive to mean pore size than to porosity; (ii) across extensive datasets, the ratio σ d /μ d (standard deviation to mean) clusters around a characteristic value ∼0.4, allowing the effects of the full pore size distribution to be represented by μ d and a narrowly varying α ≈ 0.05; and (iii) for bimodal systems, there exists a critical fraction of small pores ∼0.78 above which flow becomes small-pore dominated, enabling the definition of an effective flow-controlling pore population and facilitating simplified permeability estimation for such systems. The resulting model, which requires only porosity and a representative mean pore size as inputs, is validated against comprehensive experimental datasets (>1700 samples) spanning diverse soils and rocks and achieves good predictive accuracy. Overall, this work provides a physically grounded yet practically simple permeability estimator suitable for subsurface engineering, environmental protection, and resource management applications.

Permeability↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hurricane wind field representation shapes storm surge and building-scale flood hazard estimates

Coastal flood hazard estimates rely on precise hurricane wind forecasts to assess damage and risk. Here, we demonstrate that errors in hurricane wind field representation can lead to significant biases in storm surge and property-level damage estimates. Using Hurricane Ian (2022) as a case study, we compare widely used parametric, reanalysis, and hybrid wind datasets. Improved wind field accuracy reduces storm surge and damage estimate bias by up to 70\%. Our results underscore the importance of accurately predicting hurricane wind structure in hazard assessments.

Coastal Flooding↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating soybean yields from high-temporal-resolution multi-source data using deep learning

Accurate and timely crop yield prediction is crucial for ensuring food security and maintaining stable agricultural markets. In recent years, there has been a surge in interest in leveraging high-temporal-resolution, multi-source data for effective crop growth monitoring and yield estimation. A notable challenge arises from the difficulty in capturing the intricate interactions between variables across different time steps within these high-temporal-resolution time series datasets. This complexity hinders the reliable extraction of yield information from voluminous and often noisy datasets, especially during periods of extreme weather events. Here, in this study, we propose an Attention and Graph Isomorphism Network-enhanced Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory network (AGB-LSTM) for estimating county-level soybean yield in the United States. This model integrates a diverse set of remote sensing data, including Near-Infrared Reflectance of Vegetation (NIRv), Sun-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), along with environmental covariates. The AGB-LSTM effectively leverages information related to crop yield from high-temporal-resolution time series data (5-days), achieving an accuracy of R²= 0.67 and rRMSE = 14.46%. This approach significantly outperforms traditional machine learning methods such as Random Forest (RF) (R²= 0.52, rRMSE = 17.36%) and Bi-LSTM (R²= 0.58, rRMSE = 16.17%). Sensitivity experiments with different time steps and ranges demonstrated that our model could accurately and stably predict yields 1 to 2 months before harvest. Moreover, data with a finer temporal resolution consistently improved prediction performance, resulting in an approximately 20% increase in and an approximately 20% decrease in rRMSE compared to using monthly composites. We also evaluated the robustness of the model under extreme climate events and observed strong performance (R²= 0.50, rRMSE = 21.32%). Finally, yield mapping for major soybean-producing regions in North America in 2023 revealed spatial patterns that closely matched USDA yield reports. Our findings suggest that the AGB-LSTM model is a promising and effective method for estimating yield and has notable potential for global crop yield forecasting.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated model generation and parameter estimation of building energy models using an ontology-based framework

This study presents a methodology for automated model generation and parameter estimation of building energy models using semantic modeling and Bayesian estimation. Semantic modeling techniques are used to represent the system components and their interactions, facilitating the automatic generation of a simulation model from dynamic component models. The proposed approach is applied to a case study of a ventilation system where a simulation model is generated, calibrated, and assessed through different performance metrics. These metrics demonstrate the accuracy and reliability of both model point estimates and probabilistic prediction intervals across all model outputs. Overall, the proposed methodology offers a systematic and automated approach to model development and calibration in building energy systems, with potential applications in building performance analysis, monitoring, and optimization.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Algebraic Derivative Estimation for Battery Electric Buses Energy Consumption Forecasting

The limited service life of onboard batteries for EVs is a challenge, underscoring the need for real-time battery usage prediction. This paper proposes an adaptive Algebraic Derivative Estimation (ADE) approach for forecasting the energy consumption of battery electric buses. By dynamically adjusting the sliding window length, the adaptive ADE retains the fixed-length ADE’s key advantage—namely, operating online without reliance on extensive historical datasets—while substantially bolstering forecast accuracy by actively trading estimation bias off estimation variance. Comparative experiments against both the conventional ADE with a fixed length and a representative machine learning algorithm, XGBoost, were conducted, with performance evaluated via root mean square error, mean absolute error, and the coefficient of determination. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly outperforms baseline methods.

Cui, Tianyang [The University of Texas at Dallas]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measuring Success: A Refined Methodology for Estimating Long-term Continuous Improvement

Successful resource management systems require current and detailed feedback on operational and corporate-level performance. As corporate accountability concerns intensify, the precision and reliability of these performance metrics have become crucial. Traditional savings estimation methods can be difficult to understand, particularly linear regression, and can provide varying results. This paper reviews common efficiency metrics and highlights underlying mathematical inconsistencies when estimating total and percent savings with current methods. A refined approach to calculating long-term utility savings is proposed that simplifies current methodologies utilizing ratios to define an adjusted baseline, allowing for consistent and fair aggregation of results across multiple scales from resources to corporate performance. A simplified example demonstrates how the proposed methodology improves upon existing methods, especially in intermediate years. This paper’s major contributions are the simplified approach for converting modeled utility usage into estimated savings and the consistent roll-up methodology enabling more comparable, aggregable, and actionable results across scales.

Price, Chris [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000202007906)↗
DOE OSTI2025

DFAT: A web-based toolkit for estimating demand flexibility in building-to-grid integration

Demand Flexibility Assessment Tool (DFAT) is an open source web-based tool that estimates the demand flexibility potential of common control strategies in commercial buildings. The toolkit features a demand flexibility estimation tool that contains two calculators, basic and advanced, based on the level of input of customer data. The basic version calculates demand shed metrics for the control strategy “global temperature adjustment” and “cycle on/off compressors” using customer building information, local weather data, and electrical meter data. The advanced version, which uses detailed HVAC equipment data, calculates demand flexibility metrics for control strategies such as static pressure reset, global temperature adjustment, and cycle on/off compressors. In addition to the demand flexibility estimation tool, this toolkit offers a benchmarking tool that helps facility operators, aggregators, and utility resource managers assess demand flexibility opportunities, quantify/verify performance, and compare their performance against that of their peers.

Leong, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2024

Street-level temperature estimation using graph neural networks: Performance, feature embedding and interpretability

Estimating street-level air temperature is a challenging task due to the highly heterogeneous urban surfaces, canyon-like street morphology, and the diverse physical processes in the built environment. Though pioneering studies have embarked on investigations via data-driven approaches, many questions remain to be answered. Here, in this study, we leveraged an innovative framework and redefined the street-level temperature estimation problem using Graph Neural Networks (GNN) with spatial embedding techniques. The results showed that GNN models are more capable and consistent of estimating street-level temperature among tested locations, benefiting from its unique strength in handling extensive data over unstructured graph topology. In addition, we conducted in-depth analysis of feature importance to enhance the model interpretability. Among the urban features analyzed in this study, the time-variant canopy density and meter-level land use data emerge as crucial factors. Our findings highlight GNN 's high potential in capturing the complex dynamics between urban elements and their impacts on microclimate, thus offering valuable insights for comprehensive urban data collection and urban climate modeling in general. Collectively, this study also contributes to urban planning and policy by providing avenues to enhance city resilience against climate change, thereby advancing the agenda for environmental stewardship and urban sustainability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimation of cutting tool wear using an elastomeric tactile sensor

Machining performance of cutting tools and part quality are affected by the geometric condition of the cutting edge, which is influenced by thermomechanical loads experienced during the process. Tool condition monitoring (TCM) systems provide insight for timely replacement of cutting tools. However, existing TCM systems are expensive and require specialized equipment or sensors, hindering widespread adoption. A novel TCM system is developed herein using an elastomeric tactile sensor. Sensor images of the cutting edge are used to quantify wear using two distinct algorithms. In the first algorithm, the unworn and worn edges are identified based on Canny edge detect. In the second, the unworn edge is identified using edge detection while the region of wear is identified using a relative intensity method. In both cases, the maximum wear width is calculated based on an experimentally determined pixel to-physical distance scale. The TCM system is first used to estimate flank wear on a solid carbide helical end mill before evaluating its robustness by employing it to estimate insert wear of an indexable helical end mill. Measurements are also performed manually using an optical microscope and a high-resolution focus variation microscope for verification. The novel technique estimates flank wear in the solid carbide tool with a high accuracy of 98%. Larger discrepancies are observed for the inserts, however, with overlapping uncertainties. In conclusion, the technique shows promise in adaptability, automation, and closed loop control of machine tools.

Machining↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of an ERT‐Based Framework for Bentonite Buffers Monitoring From Laboratory Tests: 2. Quantitative Moisture Dynamics Estimation Model

Abstract The long‐term containment of high‐level radioactive waste in geological disposal repositories relies on Engineered Barrier Systems (EBS), with bentonite clay emerging as a candidate material due to its unique properties. Understanding moisture dynamics within bentonite buffers is crucial for EBS performance, as it directly influences the material's swelling capacity, thermal and hydraulic conductivity, mechanical properties, and long‐term evolution under complex thermal‐hydrological‐mechanical (THM) processes. This study develops an advanced Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT)‐based framework to quantitatively monitor moisture dynamics under THM conditions. Our framework extends the Waxman‐Smits model to incorporate the coupled effects of temperature, water content, fluid chemistry, and mechanical changes on bentonite's electrical properties. Utilizing HotBENT‐Lab data from our companion paper, which includes electrical conductivity, CT density, and thermocouple measurements, this study offers a novel methodological framework bridging different scales of the model. Our results show that the extended model can estimate water content from ERT data, capturing spatial and temporal variations in moisture distribution within bentonite columns. However, the model tends to overestimate water content compared to CT density‐derived measurements. We address this discrepancy by incorporating a simplified swelling effect model, which improves agreement between ERT and CT density‐based water content estimates. We also discuss model limitations, including simplified treatment of swelling and micropore effects, and propose a conceptual framework for transitioning from laboratory to field applications, addressing challenges such as parameter scalability, field validation methods, and integration of diverse data sources. This ERT‐based framework can potentially advance real‐world moisture monitoring of bentonite‐based EBS in nuclear waste repositories. Plain Language Summary Safely containing high‐level radioactive waste depends on barriers made from materials like bentonite clay, which is effective because it swells and seals in the waste. To ensure these barriers work well over time, it's important to understand how moisture moves through the clay. Our study developed a new method using ERT to monitor moisture levels in bentonite under conditions that mimic those in actual storage sites, including changes in temperature, water content, and mechanical stress. This study improved an existing model to better account for how these factors affect the clay, allowing us to create more accurate moisture maps. Initially, the proposed model overestimated the amount of water in the clay, but its accuracy was improved by factoring in how the clay swells when wet. This study also identified some limitations of the model and suggested ways to adapt it for use in real‐world waste storage sites. This new approach could lead to better monitoring and safety checks for nuclear waste storage systems, helping to ensure long‐term containment. Key Points This work develops an ERT‐based framework extending the Waxman‐Smits model to monitor bentonite moisture dynamics during coupled THM processes The extended model accurately estimates water content from Electrical Resistivity Tomography data, incorporating swelling effects to improve precision This work proposes a conceptual framework for transitioning from laboratory to field applications, advancing EBS monitoring in nuclear waste repositories

Chen, Hang↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temporal Variability in Reservoir Surface Area Is an Important Source of Uncertainty in GHG Emission Estimates

Ebullitive methane (CH 4 ) emissions in lentic ecosystems tend to concentrate at river-lake interfaces and within shallow littoral zones. However, inconsistent definitions of the littoral zone and static representations of the lake or reservoir surface area contribute to major uncertainties in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates, particularly in reservoirs with large water-level fluctuations. This study examines temporal variation in littoral and total surface areas of US reservoirs and demonstrates how different methods and data sources lead to discrepencies in reservoir GHG emissions at large scales and over time. We also explore variability in remotely sensed water occurrence according to maximum surface area, reservoir purposes, and hydrologic regions. Notably, the largest relative variability in surface area is exhibited by small reservoirs with a maximum surface area <1 km 2 and non-hydroelectric reservoirs. Additionally, we use a case study of measured CH 4 emissions from the southeastern United States (Douglas Reservoir) to illustrate the effects of varying surface area on reservoir-wide GHG estimates. Upscaled CH 4 emissions in Douglas Reservoir differed by nearly two-fold depending on the source of total surface area data and whether estimates accounted for seasonal fluctuations in surface area. During seasonal drawdown in Douglas Reservoir, relative littoral area varies non-linearly; periods of lower pool elevation (and thus larger relative littoral area) likely contribute disproportionately high CH 4 emission rates compared to the commonly sampled summer season when water levels are at full-pool elevation. Improved GHG monitoring and upscaling techniques require accounting for temporal variability in reservoir surface extent and littoral area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗